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Behavior

A rapid BTC and SOL uptrend worries me for my behaviour.For me as a swing trader, it's the first time I am dealing with uncomfortable emotions while the uptrend is remarkable going on and on... My thoughts are dealing with a mix of unbelief and trust issues. For all those traders with similar awareness, I put a list together of psychologic behaviour I have to deal with right now (12th of March 2024). I have decided to wait for selling due to all these in the list below. 1. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) : When prices are rising quickly, there's a tendency to fear missing out on potential profits, leading to impulsive buying decisions. 2. Overconfidence : Success in a rising market can lead to overconfidence, causing traders to take on excessive risk or neglect proper risk management strategies. 3. Herd Mentality : Traders may feel pressured to follow the crowd, leading to crowded trades and increased volatility. 4. Confirmation Bias : Traders might seek out information that confirms their bullish bias, ignoring or downplaying negative indicators or news. 5. Greedy Behavior : Greed can cloud judgment, causing traders to hold onto positions for too long, even when signs of a reversal or correction are present. 6. Panic Selling : Despite the overall uptrend, sudden dips or corrections can trigger panic selling among traders, exacerbating market volatility. Being aware of these psychological tendencies can help you stay disciplined, adhere to your trading strategy, and avoid making emotionally driven decisions.
by Aadya2
Stock Market Logic Series #3When you buy (get-in) fresh cucumbers, you have time until they will expire. But when you need to (get-out). You need to liquidate FAST or cucumbers will rot and you cant sell them to anyone. The same thing goes for the fashion industry. When a clothes trader purchases clothes for sale he needs time to buy and ship the clothes to the store, it does not happen all at once. When the season ends, and if he needs to get rid of all this "unfashionable" end-of-season clothes. So he wants to liquidate and get out FAST! So you see massive discounts to get everything from him to the consumer. The same goes for stock trading... Hope this helps you read better the charts between buying behavior and selling behavior. Want to know more? Follow for the next stock market logic.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by ZoharCho
1
The 3 Dimension Trading / Investing 3D Investing or Trading = Technical Analysis + Depth Analysis Depth Analysis: • Macro analysis or / and • Micro analysis or / and • Other analysis See the following video "3rd Dimension Analysis" link for other analysis. Many use either technical or fundamental analysis alone in their research work, I observed they likely to struggle with confidence to make the entry judgement call. We can develop a greater confidence in how we time the market by combining TA + FA. 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
CHFJPY - Look againHi team, This week my analysis on CHFJPY got stopped out. A big part of trading is being able to understand where we have gone wrong, and adapt to the market. I have re-worked my analysis of CHFJPY. Zooming out to the weekly time-frame, the wave analysis actually becomes very simple. We are currently in the final (bullish) wave of this ascending channel movement. Is is never a good idea to jump in to trades in the middle of moves, and so I will be waiting for price to reach the higher time-frame target marked here, before looking for long term sells. What are the key lessons? 1.) It is OK to be wrong - but we must discard our ego, take a fresh look, and see where we went wrong. 2.) A SL is important - better a small loss now for bigger profits later, than to sit in drawdown and hope before an inevitable huge loss. 3.) To make money, we must be patient. Discard the gambling mindset for what it is, and focus on the highest possible probability entries. i may post some short term scalps on this pair on the way up - but for now I am sitting on my hands! Good luck, Trade safe - and remember that it isn't about winning everything - it is about winning more than you lose, and maximising profit when the sun shines. Thanks guys! DrBear
by DrBear
1
The predictability of crowdsI don't master this subject, I don't have much to write about it, so this will be short. This is how trends work in life, and there are real people that get paid to study this: The people that study crowds compare behavior to sheep a lot. Talking about sheep do you know these guys came up with mecanical sheep that they can activate (run in a direction) to move the entire herd in that direction?! Also that works with fish, teleguided fish! Even with humans when there is a movement of panic, an easy one to not reproduce is people sitting at bars hanging around and a group of (terrified-looking) people start running in a direction, bystanders are going to start running in that direction too, but that's kind of cheating, people have to. There are interesting facts about crowds, such as from 6 people per square meter, people start dying. Not sure how this impacts Bitcoin but it's a fun fact. What's interesting is how bacteria and virus multiply with a similar pattern, first slow, then up up up, until death that is down down down. That's it, that's all I know on the subject. Some stuff to read: ifioque.com www.hopeschoolofleadership.org "The CONTAGION THEORY proposes that crowds exert a hypnotic influence on their members. The hypnotic influence, combined with the anonymity of belonging to a large group of people, results in irrational, emotionally charged behavior." 🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑🐑 There are actually science documents explaining that people are mindless sheep. There is also a videomaker that uploads videos on the subject, I don't know if I can share, and it is in french. Imo in the short term BTC reached inflexion point. Can go to 200k in a straight line. Could happen by Dec 31. Who knows. That's "only" an increase of 200%, BTC did that in less than 4 weeks in 2017. Next move may be the start of "death", at some point BTC became too big to not fail. Slow bear market then straight line (well that's what everything always does). But might not just be the usual capitulation, instead it might be the final one. Binance added some verification nonsense so I wasn't able to buy more BTC around 40k when it was going up. Since at this point it is clear this is all a conspiracy against me, it's a certainty BTC will go to 200 before 40 ;) I could make a lot of money by tricking my bad luck, maybe put $5 on all roulette numbers but 1, and a friend puts 100k on the last one. Stupid BTC always trolling everyone. Doing it on purpose. Yeah I actually think they do it on purpose, too many coincidences. Right when you want to short you can't, right when you want to buy you can't, it is not allowed to "front run", they do this to get people to FOMO after the price started going up. This whole thing is a blatant ponzi scheme never forget that.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by MrRenev
3
Flaming Blades Crypto BehaviorWe know after repeatedly observing the market's behavior that the Flaming Blades 🔥 should be included in the possible action framework of a falling wedge formation.... We named it so due to the increase in its behavior and impact on the market • liquidations • price frontrun • confusion You can realize this behavior as a pre-taste of what might happen because there have been very few instances of the flaming blades 🔥 taking strength in the formation and changing its direction. 8/10 situations the falling wedge remains unchanged. The Flaming Blades🔥 , on the other hand, still create a great deal of confusion with heavily overleveled hands. When it comes to the appearance of blades @cryptobetgang just remain patient! We are open to discussion and your feedback on this topic
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by cryptobetgang
The weak hands have been shaken out. Prepare for the explosion.Price barely dips and I'm seing a truckload of short ideas, and bears calling for zero. "This is it coinbase is exit scamming". They will never learn. It's always the same story. I always hear the same things over and over, endlessly. Not trying to brag, this is why I knew for a fact this 2019 pump was most definitely NOT the "return of the bull market". The relieved risk averse & loss averse bad unskilled traders sighed in relief and laughed at me for "denying the bull market which is clearly back". And then the high winrate average down gamblers sold at the bottom when the price went back down. And missed the bull market. And now that: - The LOSS AVERSE bears are desperate and close to vomiting everything - The RISK AVERSE bulls that recently bought and were preventing the price from going up got wiped out, especially the high leverage ones (doesn't take a lot of capital to affect the market if they all go 10X) Well not much stopping the price now is there? We also are seeing, just like in Q4 2017 & June 2019, the braggers. They all arrive at the same time. When we enter euphoria. I go "Let me guess your goal is to make 10 million and retire?" "Yes how did you know?" Wow didn't see that coming... They are all clones. They brag, having no idea how close they came from being another suicide story. UK polls... what was it again? 1/3 of citizens said they missed the boat on crypto? I've heard that so many times. And many end breaking. "I am watching sidelines". 2 months later "ALL IN". The market finds their breaking point, when regret gets too intense and they can't take it anymore. I remember a bragger that reached the bitmex leaderboard, that didn't last long... They always seem to mistake luck for genius and double down. No one ever goes "ok I made my money I am taking my profits and leaving the table" naaah they always come back and lose it all. It's all so repetitive. Regret, Fomo, Braggers (I am the master a legend I made that much), Hopers (I will scalp my way to making 10 million and becoming a parasite to society), and the constant loss aversion & risk aversion. To imagine there are weirdos out there that buy at 10k then the price makes it to 60 and they leave a stop at 10k "free trade". Makes so much sense. Literally this means they are willing to sell when down 85%. They'd risk the first 55,000 but certainly not the last 10! It really all is about NOT LOSING. Prey instinct. Makes sense, losing = dying. I prefer to be the hunter and focus on WINNING (BIG) rather. Muskrats, toads and crayfish do not interest me, I'm going for the big game. And if it gets away, I'll hunt another one and will have forgotten about "my loss" the next day. This price man it spent 2 months around my entry zzzz. I am so sick of these useless regulators I could have just been in my position since 12k and just progressively added if they did not ban crypto to "help". Useless hindsight clowns as usual. But after a long 2 month wait this I think is it, finally. Lots of chopiness like a mini bear market, ending in wiping out the weak hands holding the price down. Now we just need for bears to capitulate and braggers to do their magic. Especially 18 year old Erik Finmans that give investing seminars. Braggers are like early victims of a ponzi, they are the ones that get all excited and scream "I LOOOOOOOOVE BITCONNNECCCT", attracting new victims. I am very confident Bitcoin skyrockets to 250k. Possibly by june even. I bought more on this dip.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by MrRenev
12
Gamestop announced they might sell up to 3.5 million sharesGME management has the intention to sell some shares, with the goal of getting $1 billion out of the sale, they registered 3.5 million new shares. To get $1 billion at a $150 price they would have to sell 6.66 million shares. The ADV dropped to 20 million and I think is likely to stay above the period where the company was undervalued lost and forgotten with 3 million ADV. That sale is not that big it can be absorbed by the volume. The share price gapped down by 10% in the pre-market yesterday (nothing out of the ordinary) then I assume as the market opened "diamond hands" (retail investors participating in online forums) bought up the company. The noise around the company probably helped them as their sales grew by 11% in the last 2-3 months, and their March sales were up by 18% compared to last year (US lockdowns started mid-late march and European ones too). As far as I know they are not officially telling wallstreetbet many (new) users to support them, but they are taking advantage of the hype and bagholding mentality. In their filing I think they say something along the lines of "We issue new shares. Maybe price go down. Remember risks", the typical useless and mandatory warning to protect investors from themselves "warning drinking bleach might harm you", "cigarettes are bad for health", "do not eat this tube of glue" and so on. I never heard of Gamestop before this, or perhaps I did if they made game reviews I'm not sure but I'm sure I don't remember for sure (you still here?). What I can recognize for sure is Micromania. Last time Gamestop had a billion in cash they used it to purchase french retailer Micromania which everyone in that country surely has walked by before, and they later merged it with another company to sell mangas and movies too to address the decline in gaming sales. Their brand surely is recognizable. So after only 10 years they finally decide to go online, now that their public price is 10 times their actual valuation. Since their name is so mainstream and much of their "investors" are random unsophisticated people as they say, maybe they should focus more on their public image sort of like Elon Musk does, maybe they do not want to become complete master manipulators like this freak but they could play with what they have while they are rebuilding (or trying to) their dead company. If I was advising the GME management I'd say to make sure the price stays in a range: bagholders breakeven if it goes up, and panic sell if the price goes down enough. Literally announcing you're going to sell 3.5 million, 10 million, even 5000 million shares won't get them to sell don't worry, it's "just fud", I bet to half these people it's just a ticker with an indicator and the elusive sky people known as "the big guys" are trying to get them to sell, after all thinking logically is for trolls that "just don't get it", but the price going down too much will trigger their deep fear emotions and get them all selling at the same time. This is not crypto you can't manipulate the price, it would be very efficient here, a shame. Elon Musk is playing with "simple people" emotions, and the SEC don't seem to mind, the "common folk" even sees him as a hero so why not spread a tiny bit of fomo? Within legal borders. "GameStop Announces At-The-Market Equity Offering Program" "Company Can Sell Up to 3.5 Million Shares and Intends to Use Any Proceeds to Further Accelerate Transformation and Strengthen Balance Sheet" news.gamestop.com I am curious, who are the people buying actually? Bagholders averaging down? Or just random people that "buy when there is blood in the street"? My own actions: Not buying, not selling.
NYSE:GME
by MrRenev
22
GBPUSD - MTFA! - Weekly Trendline Bounce - Price Action BehaviorHi Traders! The market is in a longterm Downtrend and in a shortterm strong Uptrend. Let's look at the daily Chart first: As you can see it is making lower lows and lower highs. In addition we can see here a descending Channel. The next main Levels are also drawn on this timeframe. Consider the position of the price at this moment; it is at the upper Trendline. We're expecting a Pullback, to break - later on - the channel (Longterm Plan). Now we move on to the next H4 timeframe: So, here we can see a strong Uptrend. Look at this behavior of the market: When the price reached the Trendline firstly, it bounced back immediatly (normal behavior). Then it came back to try to make another high - but it failed to do it. That means, that the bullish Power is weak now and the bears are getting stronger for now. It made a double Top and is now retesting 50 MA. The target is the next Support and Trendline. Now we go to the Entry Timeframe: It is at a temporary Support and is bouncing back now. That's the time we will enter the trade. We recommend to short at the orange box when a Reversal Pattern (false Break, etc.) appears. Thanks and successful Trading :)!
Short
by swissmoneymakers
Human Behavior and CryptoDear traders and investors, I was just reflecting a bit on this long term log chart for BTC; I often see this chart being passed around here and it has even made its way on to mainstream financial news outlets. Most people in the world of finance realize the power of ideas and expectations, especially potentially profitable ones. My question to this community is this: how does the expectation of the next bull run actually affect its probability when that expectation is disseminated more broadly? In other words, since more people are trading/investing based on this scenario, does that mean the outcome may be different this time around? Historical price action is never a guarantee of future performance. Now I do realize that Bitcoin has some fundamental drivers here including reduced/capped supply coupled with steadily increasing demand. But whenever this chart is presented, it almost seems like a "sure thing" that insane profits will be made in the next 2-3 years. Based on this implication, we're already seeing institutions jump into the Bitcoin and other major crypto spaces. Yet, if everyone "knows" that BTC will rise up to around $70-90k after halving in May 2020, I wonder how likely it is that demand will keep up as we get closer to that price range since this would be an increasingly foolish point to buy into bitcoin...unless you're planning on holding for another 5 years. Will that potential drop in demand then imply that we wouldn't reach such soaring heights in the next bull run? Maybe it will be more gradual this time around...I'd like to hear more from this community! Thanks for reading!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by HecknDoggo
BTC 4hr trend still continues. In addition, let's be empirical!I am not a chart technician per se. As in my previous ideas, for the short term, I remain sold on the bearish trend towards $6600 or about. I am not interested in precision TA, but rather behavior patterns which reveal themselves over time (short or long). Just as you might quantify human behavior with data , much is revealed about that behavior and the patterns that come with that behavior through analysis (just a fancy word for deduced common sense). TA can be extremely valuable, but could one say that TA is really analysis of human behavior? Are there not some very important things in this world that TA in a vacuum does not take into account? Such as actions by humans inside and outside of the crypto space? What about hash rate changes and halving of BTC mining rewards?
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Napoleon_Carnegie
"One of those days"-- the art of "Locked out"Recently I participate in an analyst competition, and I got eliminated in the trading sections. Having an established trading system and strong mindset doesn't mean I make profit in every single trading days, as everyone would agree. That's why we need a daily risk ceiling, if hit, we don't trade anymore,which is called being "locked out". usually 6% (2% per trade basis) Being locked out is just one of those days, I would like to make so much profit every single trading day, so all I did in trading was finding opportunities that matches my trades before being locked out. While,in terms of frequency , basically 2 out of 5 trading days will be locked out as inside bars are not a strategy with high winning percentage. "One of those days" is what I will talk to myself to stay calm, but when a short-term intraday competition happen to be one of those days, that's when people will challenge your strategy or even trading ability, and that's pretty much offending to me, but the world will always focus on the result. Keep fighting and keep trading, do the proper risk management, and not being influenced by one of those days.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by Trader_Joe_Lee
3
EURUSD still BEARISH although option markets are record long EURUpdate on my SECULAR EUROUSD Short. After having clearly failed to break the secular downtrend channel at 1.2500 I continue to stress that EURUSD is overbought, both technically and by the record number of long option contracts. Please do not get caught long EURO and continue to sell on bounces. I trade it daily and been trading it for ages, obviously I rely on technical indicators as per my previous comment. But market psychology and behavior is as much important. We have a situation where nearly everyone is on the same side, long euro, and since hitting 1.2500 every time the chart highlights a buy signal the EURUSD fails to reach its short term target, then price suddenly reverse: we have a series of constant false breaks towards the upside...This is a clear sign everyone is trying to get out of longs (while many still hold their position....so capitulation still ahead). Lets now talk about levels. 1.2200 nest support and target. But where I will first close my short is 1.2085 (Previous door to 1.2500 and now trap for 1.1500) where I believe we have a major support and will not go short again until we close 2 consecutive days below 1.2085. In the meantime I stress you to not buy EUR and sell only on pullbacks. But then again you do what you want :-)..this is my personal opinion. On the short Picture I think we will see some buying at 1.2200, mostly fueled by short term traders. The EUR attempted and failed to correct the 1.2500 -1.2300 drop: when pulling a classic Fibonacci Retracement indicator and the cross fails to retrace more than 25%, the market is clearly trending (downwards in this case) and further losses are to be expected. Again from a behavioral perspective this means longs are trying to get out of their positions and the more time passes the more they are willing to accept lower prices, this before the obnoxious ones, who fail to accept the bear market, will capitulate. PS; By tomorrow I will also publish on my blog theforecaster.eu
Short
by TheForecaster