Berkshirehathaway
Apple Support - lower than you thinkHi, thanks for viewing.
I think there is less demand for over-priced (subjective call) personal electronics at the moment. People are rightly thinking about more essential items, paying down debt, and increasing savings.
Probably worth pointing out how strong the 200 week moving average is as support - somewhere around 185, which is lower than people think. Anyone out there thinking that they are safe because "Warren Buffett bough Apple" need to look into the recent cut-losses by Berkshire Hathaway. Warren said many many times in the past things along the lines of "I don't understand electronics firms, so I don't invest in them," "I don't understand Apple so I don't invest," "if I ever invest in airlines - then call the Psychologist because I have lost my mind." Not direct quotes, but anyone who has followed Warren Buffett for a long time will know what I am talking about.
So, what happened recently? Berkshire cut losses on Delta Airlines - shares bough expecting the bail-out would somehow replace lost customer demand and bleak fundamentals. To hear that Warren even bought Airline shares just doesn't sound right to me. The same here, they invested in Stocks they didn't understand as well as their traditional 'bread and butter', departed dramatically from a value investing philosophy, and they will have to take their losses - just like everyone else. Apple is over-valued. Anything that is 'consumer discretionary' that may be affected by the steep drop-off in consumer demand will be sold - at least until the future comes into sharper focus. I bought a cheaper smartphone recently after getting annoyed at having to charge my iPhone before the day was over. My new phone has an 11,000Mah battery and I don't even need to charge it every day - every second day is more than enough. I don't need to pay crazy prices for cordless earphones, or $1000 for a computer stand etc etc. Apples has a good product, not necessarily the best in class, but they are compensating for lower sales by raising their prices - that makes them more vulnerable to lower consumer discretionary spending in the event of an economic downturn.
I am not sure if I will be a buyer at $185, because we are in the biggest economic shock of a lifetime. But there will likely be a bounce at that level.
Now we can watch how this market unfolds. The forces at play are massive US, ECB, BOJ stimulus versus a massive supply chain, and demand shock. Unfortunately, the Fed cannot make people able to afford their credit card bills, their rent, medical costs, cannot re-create a supply chain, or convince anyone that savings aren't essential right now. Long-term, they will have to convince the public that massive and un-serviceable Fed and Public debt isn't something to worry about. That owning public debt that yields below inflation and cannot be paid from income is a good idea. I am very concerned that all the monetised debt this year and next will be met with lower and lower demand as people realise they are not being adequately compensated to hold it, and that at maturity it will be paid in newly printed devalued USD. US Treasuries are a promise to deliver USD in the future, that promise to pay is very unlikely to be funded by additional income, so T-bonds are effectively a promise to print money. Anyone who knows about gold, knows that all the brakes have been taken off the gold price recently. ZIRP (that can never be raised), global uncertainty, negative real yields of 10 year T-bonds, and a struggling equity market, all lend strength (and reduce the opportunity cost to hold it) of gold.
Ok, I ended up going a little off-road there. But we are over-all in a "risk off" environment. Safe havens will out-perform vs equities or treasuries (treasuries have stopped being a safe haven). Corporate debt is definitely not a safe haven.
uncle warren <3warren buffet is just smarter than us. why not join him for the ride?
if it gets 233 its at 240
apple
amzn
oxy
some companies that are showing incredible strength where uncle warren has serious positions.
also $xtn (spdr transportation etf) showing some moxy as well
in which uncle warren has a great stake in transpo stocks.
BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY(BRK.B) | Short-Term 10% Growth Potential If..Hi,
The "famous" and loved stock among investors, Berkshire Hathaway, approaching a pretty sweet breakout zone.
Since the mid of 2018, the price has started to "draw" a chart pattern called Triangle.
At the moment, we can say that this Triangle is a continuation pattern and if we see a Weekly candle close above the upper orange trendline (marked as a green area) then this trade/investment is triggered and it will start to approach new ATH's (all-time highs). Price, a candle close around 214-215.
Several channels and wave analyses are pointed to the light-blue area, which is also "stock-short-term" target area, price 230-235.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is an American multinational conglomerate holding company headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, United States. The company wholly owns GEICO, Duracell, Dairy Queen, BNSF, Lubrizol, Fruit of the Loom, Helzberg Diamonds, Long & Foster, FlightSafety International, Pampered Chef, and NetJets, and also owns 38.6% of Pilot Flying J, 26.7% of the Kraft Heinz Company, and significant minority holdings in American Express (17.6%), Wells Fargo (9.9%), The Coca-Cola Company (9.4%), Bank of America (6.8%), and Apple (5.22%). Since 2016, the company has acquired large holdings in the major US airline carriers and is currently the largest shareholder in United Airlines and Delta Air Lines and a top three shareholder in Southwest Airlines and American Airlines. Berkshire Hathaway has averaged an annual growth in book value of 19.0% to its shareholders since 1965 (compared to 9.7% from the S&P 500 with dividends included for the same period) while employing large amounts of capital, and minimal debt.
The company is known for its control and leadership by Warren Buffett, who serves as chairman and chief executive, and Charlie Munger, the company's vice-chairman. In the early part of his career at Berkshire, Buffett focused on long-term investments in publicly traded companies, but more recently he has more frequently bought whole companies. Berkshire now owns a diverse range of businesses including confectionery, retail, railroads, home furnishings, encyclopedias, manufacturers of vacuum cleaners, jewelry sales, newspaper publishing, manufacture and distribution of uniforms, and several regional electric and gas utilities.
According to the Forbes Global 2000 list and formula, Berkshire Hathaway is the third-largest public company in the world, the tenth-largest conglomerate by revenue and the largest financial services company by revenue in the world.
As of February 2019, Berkshire is the fifth-largest company in the S&P 500 Index by market capitalization and is famous for having the most expensive share price in history with Class A shares costing around $300,000 each. This is because there has never been a stock split in its Class A shares and Buffett stated in a 1984 letter to shareholders that he does not intend to split the stock.
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BRK.B Defensive after earningsSeasonal defensive BRK.B has bounced off the 200MA. It fell last week (w/e May 10) despite beating on earnings. There were no guidance issues, but it was caught up in the trade war sell-off, despite being a defensive little affected by this, and by being overbought.
I suggest entry at 208 ($1 below market). We are relying on the rising channel (note the very precise channel touches) to avoid a repeat of Feb-Mar price action, hence the tight stop of 203, just below last week’s low. Targeting 224, the previous ATH gives a 3.2:1 trade.
Berkshire Hathaway A [Long term analysis]Good 'ol Berkshire Hathaway Class A shares.
Looks like BRK.A is at a potential reversal zone, and this could be a good chance to either a) Short until desired targets or b) Wait for support and signs of reversal at the 23.6%, 38.2% or 50%. If we do indeed reverse at this zone, this will be our wave 4 correction yielding an extended wave 5 afterward.
According to Elliot Wave theory if a third wave fails to make it past 1.618x of the initial wave 1, you can expect an extended wave 5 which will have targets of 1.0x, 1.618x or 2.618x of wave 1 to 3 projected from the wave 4 bottom. This count is invalidated if we close above $330,000 on the M1 interval.
The R:R on this position would be about 1:3.5
A brief recap of BRK.A drops:
3/1973 - 1/1975 - 59.1% drop (S&P lost 44%) - US economy in recession resulting from oil crisis and fallout from Breton Woods Agreement.
10/1987 - 10/1987 - 37.1% drop (S&P lost 34%) - Black Monday Stock crash.
6/1998 - 3/2000 - 48.9% drop (S&P gained 27%) - Just before dot-com bubble burst.
9/2008 - 3/2009 - 50.7% drop - The darkest days of the great financial crisis.
S/L: $330,000
Entry : $296,000
Target 1: 23.6% / $258,570
Target 2: 38.2% / $223,051
Target 3: 50% / $194,334
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