US Stock Market Making 2nd Attempt at Parabolic Blow-Off TopI believe we will get either a blow-off top in the S&P or a fundamental event that kills the expansion, sending price below the magenta rising support line.
If the Fed is too slow to expand the balance sheet, then stocks can correct significantly until the Fed eases adequately.
If Trump wins and the Fed expands their balance sheet in 2020 at a fast enough pace, then spx will enter a blow-off top mania.
If Bernie or Warren win, a significant correction will take place but SPX may bounce once rates hit zero or negative.
If the Fed is slow to move (quite likely) then SPX will swing really violently and could get scary for some investors and traders
In my view, the SPX is only worth trading, it is not worth investing in. Now is the time to be getting out of US stocks and US dollars and into emerging markets and commodities.
Sometimes being a better investor means passing up immediate returns via central bank fueled irrational exuberance and waiting for an even better opportunity later once the music has stopped and everyone has been exposed. Impossible to predict the top, so better off not fully participating.
