NIKE | JUST BUY ITNike topped Wall Street estimates for first quarter profit on Thursday as higher prices of its sneakers and apparel helped offset a hit from waning demand and persistent cost pressures, sending its shares up about 8% in extended trading.
Nike (NKE) is the largest apparel company in the world, with leading positions across different categories and regions. The company is currently facing challenges such as elevated inventory levels, inflationary pressure, and slow growth in China. Such issues have resulted in the stock dropping by 19% YTD. Although these headwinds are serious, I believe the company's durable brand, leading position, and high-quality products should allow it to come out stronger on the other end.
'Nike is a brand that is of China and for China' -John Donahoe
Like every other apparel and retail company, Nike thought post-pandemic demand would continue, so it increased production, which led to inventory levels hitting an all-time high in Q1-FY22, but as we know, that wasn't the case. Although NKE's inventory level is down from all-time highs, investors are still concerned, especially when inflation is eating into people's pockets and growth in China is slowing.
Inflation in North America has come down to 3.7% from its peak in June at 9.1%, but it is still a concern in Europe (6.1% in the EU union). As you can see from the graph below, sales in China have been decreasing for the past two years. There are multiple ways one can explain this: COVID related lockdowns resulted in the shuttering of some stores. Plus, Nike and other apparel companies started facing a backlash in China in 2021 due to the alleged use of forced labor in cotton production. However, if the company is successful at expanding into China, then we can expect a lot of room for growth.
Now that I have addressed the problems that are facing Nike, let me explain why I believe the company will overcome them. Nike sponsors the most well-known athletes such as Cristiano Ronaldo (+600 million Instagram followers), LeBron James, Michael Jordan, the late Kobe Bryant, Rafael Nadal, Tiger Woods, and more. This has helped the company build a loyal customer base and further boost its brand equity. With a loyal customer base comes pricing power, and as Warrant Buffet said:
Nike's pricing power is no joke. Its shoes have reached a level where they are considered luxury, with some selling for more than the $10,000 mark. In 2017, Nike's median price for a shoe regardless of gender was $80, which is $10 more than its biggest competitor, Adidas. I know 2017 was a long time ago, but shoe prices have increased since then, and I believe Nike is still in the lead given their dominant market position. Plus, Nike targets mostly the age demographic of 25 and 34. These are people who have not settled in yet. They just graduated college with extra income to spend on things such as expensive shoes. I believe this pricing power will continue as the company continues to sponsor talented upcoming athletes to build trust with customers.
Another way to measure Nike's brand power is by comparing its marketing spending against its peers. Nike's marketing budget in FY 23 was $4 billion, or 7.9% of revenue. On the other hand, Adidas spent 38% and Under Armour 11%. These companies have been allocating more of their revenue towards marketing but have experienced nowhere near the growth Nike has. NKE's association with well-known athletes in the U.S. has allowed them to have a 96% awareness rate, 53% usage rate, and 43% loyalty rate. Going forward, I expect the company's brand will remain high-quality due to sponsorships, high-quality products, and market-leading technology.
Founded by Bill Bowerman and Phil Knight in 1994, Nike has come a long way from its first store in Portland, Oregon. As of May 31, 2023, the company had 369 stores within the U.S. and 663 internationally, operating in more than 190 countries. Stores include franchised stores and third-party retailers. The firm owns multiple brands such as Jordan, Converse, and Nike. The company derives sales from four main segments and across four regions. I excluded Converse (4.74% of revenue) from the graphs below because I wanted to focus on the Nike brand. The company's app, NikePlus, has more than 160 million users.
On a trailing free cash flow basis, the stock yields over 3.3% relative to its enterprise value. My ~$104 May 24 PT implies a 28.00x P/E and 20.00x EV/EBITDA. Both multiples are below the ten-year NTM average and in line with the median. I project revenue to compound at a rate of 6.47% over the next three years, driven by market growth and new products, while shares decrease at a rate of 2.67%, driven by stock buybacks. The company is forecast to spend $12.1 billion on share repurchases over the same period.
Additionally, I believe the company still has room for margin improvement driven by price increases and DTC mix (direct-to-consumer). In FY 2019, DTC sales constituted 31% of revenue, and that figure stood at 44% in FY 2023. Although NKE is trading at a premium compared to peers, I believe it is reasonable considering its scale, high-quality products, and strong brand.
The first risk that I would associate with NKE is competition. The company competes with conglomerates such as Addidas, Puma, New Balance, Under Armour, and more. Additionally, e-commerce has made it very easy for anyone to start their own footwear brand. Other key risks to my rating include supply chain distributions, a recessionary environment, and slow growth in China.
Finally, we can point out that NKE appears technically oversold heading into the Q1 earnings report. From the chart , there has been relentless selling pressure over the last four months since NKE was trading at $130 per share.
The potential that NKE delivers a "good" earnings report with encouraging guidance, brushing aside fears the company is facing a deeper deterioration in its operating environment could be enough for shares to reprice higher. Simply put, our take is that NKE bears have gone too far, opening the door for bulls to take control.
The bottom line is that Nike is currently experiencing headwinds such as elevated inventory levels, inflationary pressure, and slow growth in China. Every business goes through similar challenges at one time or another, but I believe Nike is well-positioned to overcome these issues due to its durable brand, high-quality products, and leading position. I expect the company to keep endorsing high-quality athletes to elevate its brand equity and further strengthen its pricing power. My valuation implies a price target of ~$104 for May 31, 2024.
If you into NIKE brand you can watch Air film and read Shoe Dog book as well
Beststocktrader
Ubisoft Entertainment SA / UBIUbisoft Entertainment aka ubi "bug" is a french video game publisher headquartered in Saint-Mandé with development studios across the world. Its video game franchises include Assassin's Creed, Far Cry, For Honor, Just Dance, Prince of Persia, Rabbids, Rayman, Tom Clancy's, and Watch Dogs. Ubisoft was one early investors in web3 technologies and projects too
last year was a terrible year for ubi because not only they didn't succeed with their franchise like farcry 6 but also they entered the bear market while they were working on their bigger projects like AC. “We are clearly disappointed by our recent performance,” said Ubisoft Chief Executive Yves Guillemot. “We are facing contrasted market dynamics as the industry continues to shift towards mega-brands and everlasting live games, in the context of worsening economic conditions affecting consumer spending.”
2023 is a big year for ubi and they are going to publish some of their best games like Assassin's Creed Mirage, Tom Clancy’s The Division Heartland and skull and bones
ubi stock now in Accumulation phase and its next targets are 21, 23 and 25
NextEra Energy / NEE vs. NEPRenewable energy investments are in high demand by many investors, but many of these companies aren't very profitable yet or are unattractive due to other fundamental issues. NextEra Energy and NextEra Energy Partners are outliers, however, as they are highly profitable while also providing a growing income stream for their owners. In this report, I'll show why I believe that NextEra Energy Partners, LP is the significantly more attractive pick at current prices, relative to the mother entity NextEra Energy, Inc
Renewable energy is in high demand around the world. Countries, corporations, and even individuals are spending heavily to increase the generation of electricity via hydro, solar, wind, geothermal energy, and so on. Many investors also want to invest in this macro megatrend, but not too many investment choices seem suitable for that. Many companies in this space are either not profitable or trading at very elevated valuations. Some have been clear bubble stocks in the past, along with many electric vehicle stocks that were also hyped up during the pandemic, which didn't work out for investors. In order to decide whether NEE or NEP is more attractive for investment today, we'll look at a couple of factors that investors might want to consider when making an investment decision.
Both companies are marketed as renewable energy investments, but their actual exposure to renewable energy is very different. NextEra Energy Partners is highly exposed to renewable energy, as that industry contributes the vast majority of its revenue and profit: The company reports that around 80% of its revenue were created with its renewable energy business, both in the most recent quarter and in the Q1-Q3 2022 time frame. By contrast, around 20% of NEP's revenue was generated by its pipeline services, which could be called a hydrocarbon or "old energy" business.
NextEra Energy Inc., on the other hand, is not as heavily exposed to renewable energy. NEER, NEE's renewable energy business unit, contributed just $1.6 billion of the company's overall revenue of $6.7 billion during the most recent quarter, or 24%. The majority of NEE's revenue is contributed by Florida Power & Lighting, a regulated electric utility. FPL has some renewable energy assets as well, but also uses non-renewable power assets for electricity generation on top of offering distribution etc. Overall, that makes NEE a less renewable-focused company relative to NEP. That does not have to be a bad thing per se, but for an investor that seeks to add renewable energy exposure, NEP with its ~80% exposure seems more suitable than NEE, which is more comparable to a typical regulated electric utility.
A stock's valuation should always be considered when making investment decisions. Today, NEE trades at 28x this year's expected net profits, using the midpoint of management's guidance range. That's a pretty high valuation for an electric utility, and explains why NEE only receives a Valuation Score of F. Meanwhile, NEP is trading at just 8x CAFD today, which translates into a cash flow yield of 12.5% (versus an earnings yield of less than 4% for NEE). Not surprisingly, NEP has a way better Valuation Score of C+. NEP's valuation is thus not perfect, either, but easily outclasses the valuation NEE trades at. For those that prefer to look at net profit for both companies, although one can argue that cash flow is more telling for an LP like NEP, NEP looks way cheaper than NEE, as NEP's forward earnings multiple is 13.5 -- less than half as much compared to the valuation NEE trades at, despite NEP's better growth. Both companies have enjoyed healthy growth in recent years. During the most recent quarter, NEP grew its EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) by 13% year over year, while CAFD (cash available for distributions) grew by an even better 17% year over year.
NEP continues to add new assets regularly, which drives its growth, although organic growth via rate increases and output optimization also plays a role. Overall, NEP isn't very large yet, with a market capitalization of $7 billion. An acquisition worth a couple hundreds of millions of dollars is thus enough to move the needle -- that's not true for NEE, which is valued at around $170 billion. Only very large takeovers or new projects move the needle for NextEra Energy, Inc.
NEE forecasts that its earnings per share for 2022 will total $2.85 (final results have not been released yet), which would be up by 12% year over year. For a large electric utility, that's still pretty strong, but it's not as exciting as the growth that NEP has been delivering. Going forward, that should hold true as well. NEE is forecasting earnings per share growth of 7% for 2023, while EPS forecasts for 2024 and 2025 stand at 9% and 7%, respectively, using the midpoint of the EPS guidance range for each respective year.NEP, meanwhile, will likely deliver double-digit growth going forward, at least if management is correct. The company forecasts that its cash available for distribution run rate will be around $820 million at the end of 2023, which would be up from $730 million in 2022, which makes for a 12% increase. While management has not given out guidance numbers for 2024 and beyond, the higher growth in 2023, coupled with the fact that driving meaningful inorganic growth is easier as smaller acquisitions can have a larger impact, make me believe that NEP has a good chance of growing faster than NEE in 2024 and 2025 as well. That also impacts the dividend growth rate, which gets us to the next point.
CAPCOM | Sreet Fighter6 & ATH 🔥Capcom stock prices have hit All Time High ahead of the launch for Street Fighter 6, following positive buzz around the anticipated title. looking at a chart, it’s easy to see what normally influences trends many previous spikes in share prices correlate around major Capcom releases, such as a March spike just two weeks before the release of Resident Evil 4 remake
It’s not just actual game releases that can have an affect on share prices a spike in November isn’t correlated with any major releases, though it does follow reports of Capcom making a mobile spinoff of Monster Hunter, as well as news about a potential release date for Street Fighter 6.
This week’s spike also follows a very optimistic forecast on Capcom’s investor relations page, which also predicts 140 billion yen in sales in the next fiscal year (April 2023 to March 2024).
It’s no surprise that Street Fighter 6 would have so much control over Capcom’s financial value- Street Fighter V is their 9th highest-selling title, with over 7 million units shipped. Combined with the announcement of a 2 million dollar prize pool for next year’s Capcom Pro Tour series and positive critical reception, it’s easy to be optimistic that Street Fighter 6’s launch will be huge for the company.
In its end-year financial results published on Wednesday, which cover the year ended March 31, 2023, the Resident Evil publisher said it had sold 41.7 million games during the 12-month period.
That’s up from 32.6 million games the previous fiscal year and breaks its record for the most games sold in a business year. The company said its game sales helped it achieve a sixth consecutive year of record-high profit “at all levels” and its tenth consecutive year of operating income growth.
The company achieved the record sales figure partly with the release of two new titles in its flagship series, Resident Evil 4 (which released a week before the end of the reporting period in March 2023) and Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak, which sold around 3.75 million and 5.45 million units.
The vast majority of its sales came from catalog titles, which Capcom defines as games released in the previous fiscal year or earlier.these sales, which it says were mostly made up of titles in the Monster Hunter, Resident Evil and Devil May Cry series, reached 29.3 million units – exceeding the 24 million units in the previous fiscal year.Capcom said 12.4 million in sales was made up of new titles. The company released 35 ‘new’ SKUs in FY23, including Mega Man: Battle Network Legacy Collection, Resident Evil Village: Gold Edition, Monster Hunter Rise Deluxe Edition, Capcom Arcade 2nd Stadium and Capcom Fighting Collection.
89.4% of its game sales during the 12 months were digital (37.3 million) and 19.7% were sold in its native Japan (8.2 million). Other than MH Rise: Sunbreak and RE4, the company’s top-selling titles during the FY were Monster Hunter Rise (3.7m), Resident Evil 2 (2.25m) and Resident Evil 3 (1.95m).
Capcom said it expects to break records for sales and profit again in its current fiscal year, ending March 31, 2024, which includes the release of Street Fighter 6 in June and new IP Exoprimal in July.Capcom‘s president recently said the company aims to sell 10 million copies of Street Fighter 6, which would break the series record of 7 million met by Street Fighter V
what an easy trade and profit 🥂
