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WMT 1Q Earning Target 2021WMT flopped its fourth quarter earnings in 2020 announcing -.74 cents a share. I expect a report with a lot more strength with integration of E-commerce into it online store models as well as less fear surrounding COVID-19 creating boost in sales. With only 1% of shares floating short, The slow grind up, which has been evident since the middle of March, is likely to continue without any strong resistance. Being the largest retailer in 2019 boasting 523 B in sales (NRF.com) doubling AMZN sales, this stock is a solid frontrunner as we move into a post pandemic economy. The NFP report on April 2nd of 916k (almost double the previous month report) compared to the 652k estimate is also encouraging as this could lead to more consumer spending. Still to come this month are MOM retail sale reports on the 15th and 16th which will could potentially back this thesis. Furthermore, with the market creating new highs quickly, there could be a tinge of uncertainty or heightened volatility as the rally hasn't really had much catalyst other than jobs, but with WMT's Beta of .47 (Zachs) this stock is relatively safe. With a debt to equity ratio at a 2 year low as well, this stock is definitely a strong buy in my opinion and I have set my post earnings target for 160 with this stock. This would be an all time high and about a 2% increase from current highs which is definitely within reason all things considered.
NYSE:WMTLong
by crawfordpaul
Risk management using Alpha and BetaAlpha measures excess return. Anything with alpha over 1.0 is considered favorable. Beta measures volatility and market risk. Anything with beta below 1.0 is considered favorable. These cannot be the only metrics you make your trades or investments on, but they are extremely helpful when comparing funds or stocks. Chasing high alpha will usually result in higher beta. Chasing low beta will usually result in lower alpha, meaning muted returns but a more stable, safe investment.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by EBITDAtiger
3
12/8 WATCHLIST - INTRADAY OPTIONSWATCHLIST 12/8 Welcome! This is my first post on TV and I hope it brings you value. I'm an intraday options trader that uses supply and demand as defined mainly by hourly channels. I tend to go for pure gamma moves, so I look for explosive moves. I plan on posting daily watchlists, and following up with comments on the success/failure of them. My current bias for tomorrow is bullish, although the overall put-to-call ratio (symbol PCCE) is at all time lows. While this isn't a sell signal by itself, any negative news catalyst can quickly turn the market on a dime, causing investors to get on the short side. I maintain a bullish bias for 12/8 but will see how overnights and pre-market play out. I am currently in some HD 12/18 $265 calls for a swing, which I will likely close out tomorrow if profitable. I don't think it's a good idea to hold on to positions for too long in this climate. ZM puts under 404.5 AMD calls over 94.2 (safer entry 94.4) JMIA calls over 36 NFLX bounce TSLA calls over 645.4 V calls over 213.20 AAPL calls over 124 FB calls above yellow trendline in picture Here are some other names I don't usually trade but have great setups: EMN calls above yellow trendline in picture COF calls over 93.25 NOW macro calls over 535.5 SHOP calls over 1090 COST puts under 371.8 Will follow up with an updated list during pre-market tomorrow!
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by algrowithm
IXIC: What Beta Means When Considering a Stock's Risk If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight. In this post, I will be providing a thorough explanation on the concept of Beta, and why it's important to consider the Beta value when investing in stocks. Definition Beta is a measure of the volatility , or systematic risk, of a security or portfolio compared to the market as a whole. It is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which describes the relationship between systematic risk and expected return for stocks. For beta to be meaningful, the stock should be related to the benchmark that is used in the calculation. However, a text-book definition of the concept does not really help us understand what Beta is How to calculate the Beta - To begin with calculating the value, we must first start by spotting the price change of a certain stock in comparison to the market's movement - After a certain period, we collect enough data (grey dotted points), allowing us to plot a trend - With this, we can figure out the relationship between the profitability of the stock we are looking at, and that of the market - Based on the data, we calculate the Beta by dividing the product of the covariance of the stock's returns and the market's returns by the variance of the market's returns over a specified period. Explained Through Examples - We can consider 3 types of stocks: - Stock 1 with a Beta value of 1 - Stock 2 with a Beta value of 0.5 - Stock 3 with a Beta value of 1.5 - We assume that these stocks are all listed on NASDAQ, and the NASDAQ Composite Index (IXIC) moved up by 10% - Stock 1, which has a Beta value of 1, will show the exact same movement paired to that of the market. It reflects 100% of the market's movement - Stock 2, on the other hand, reflects only half of the market's movement, with a Beta value of 0.5 Thus, it moves up by 5% - Stock 3, moves up by 15% as it has a beta value of 1.5, moves up more drastically than the market value, indicating that the stock is more volatile Four Possible Cases for Beta Values - We can consider four possible cases for Beta values: Beta Value Equal to 1 In this case, the security (stock) shows a strongly correlated movement with the market movement. Examples of such securities include Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) such as QQQ which track the Nasdaq 100 index . Adding a stock to a portfolio with a beta of 1.0 doesn’t add any risk to the portfolio, but it also doesn’t increase the likelihood that the portfolio will provide an excess return. Beta Value Less Than 1 A beta value that is less than 1 means that the security is theoretically less volatile than the market. Having a stock with such beta value helps make a portfolio less exposed to risk. Utility stocks often have low betas because they tend to move more slowly than market averages. Beta Value More Than 1 A beta that is greater than 1.0 indicates that the security's price is theoretically more volatile than the market. As in the example above, if a stock's beta is 1.5, it is assumed to be 50% more volatile than the market. Tech stocks tend to have higher betas than the market benchmark. Having a stock with such beta value exposes the portfolio to more risk, but also higher potential returns as well. Negative Beta Value A security with a negative Beta value means that the stock is inversely correlated to the market benchmark. Prime examples of such securities are inverse ETFs, and certain industry groups such as precious metal mining companies, where a negative beta value is commonly found. Real Life Examples - Based on the explanation above, we can now move on to the following examples of stocks listed on NASDAQ for real life examples: Lulu Lemon (LULU), Tesla Motors ( TSLA ), Amazon ( AMZN ), Costco (COST), ProShare UltraPro Short QQQ ETF ( SQQQ ) - Based on the NASDAQ Composite's movement (IXIC), we can see how certain stocks in certain sectors react differently, in similar trends - In the case of stocks such as LULU and TSLA , we can see that the Beta value is extremely high, as their corrections and impulse moves are severely exaggerated compared to IXIC - Amazon's movement also reflects a high beta value, but not as high as that of TSLA and LULU - COST, on the other hand, seems to have a beta value close to 1, as it follows the movement of IXIC. It's less risky, as the drops are not as severe, but the potential profits are not too high either - SQQQ , on the other hand, is a 3x leveraged ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index . As such, it has an inverse beta value, and shows huge spikes during times of correction for IXIC Limitations of Beta - The beta coefficient theory assumes that stock returns are normally distributed from a statistical perspective, but returns aren’t always normally distributed. - A stock with a very low beta could have smaller price swings, yet it could still be in a long-term downtrend. So from a practical perspective, a low beta stock that's experiencing a downtrend isn’t likely to improve a portfolio’s performance. - While the Beta value is useful in determining a security's short-term risk, it becomes less meaningful for investors attempt to predict a stock's future movements. Conclusion Understanding the concept of Beta is essential in portfolio diversification. A good investor can identify bullish and bearish market trends, and rebalance their portfolio accordingly. A good balance of securities with varying Beta values is imperative for a good balance between risk management and profit maximization.
TVC:IXICEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
3
AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 22.06.2020 The S&P 500 moved up 1.9% this week, recovering some losses from the last week. The Nasdaq Composite moved higher with a 3.7% gain. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished the week in positive territory. Health care +3.1% Information technology +2.8% Consumer staples +2.4%, Consumer discretionary +2.3% On the downside Utilities -2.4% Energy -1.0% Real estate -0.8% Investors are still in the "Buy the dip" mentality after the major recovery from the bottom mad in March this year, and confirmations made by the Fed announcing on Monday that it will start buying individual corporate bonds through its Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We predict the market is going to continue to be high volatility range trading in the coming days and weeks, the economy is not going well enough to sustain a major rally, BUT the fed and government is going to continue to pump liquidity into the markets and that alone that should support the current price levels. The market traders are not clear on the next market move as they were in previous weeks and this creates elevated levels of volatility. We see the next key level as 3000, and then 2800. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
Alpha Over Beta Market Outlook 15.06.2020Market headline: Stock indexes decline in the worst week since March The S&P500 started the week meeting a significant milestone: it was positive for the year! plus the Nasdaq Composite finally rose above 10,000 - but went downhill from there as it surrendered to profit-taking that turned to be the worst week since March. The S&P 500 fell 4.8%, the Nasdaq fell 2.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.6%. Most of the week's losses came on Thursday with the S&P 500 declining 5.9% and rebounded on Friday. as there was no specific news that contributed to the decline, some blamed the Fed while others pointed to data showing increasing rates of coronavirus in many U.S. states reopening the economy in any case non of was really new news. All S&P 500 sectors finished the week down, ranging from information technology down 2.0% to energy down 11.1%. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We predict the market is going to continue to be high volatility range trading in the coming days and weeks, the economy is not going well enough to sustain a major rally, BUT the fed and government is going to continue to pump liquidity into the markets and that alone that should support the current price levels. The market traders are not clear on the next market move as they were in previous weeks and this creates elevated levels of volatility. We see the next key level as 2950 , and then 2800. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
XSPA,Broke resistance , AlphaOverBeta Price AlertHello traders, XpresSpa Group, Inc., a health and wellness services company, provides spa services and related products at airports. The company offers massage services for the neck, back, feet, and whole body; nail care, including pedicures, manicures, and polish changes; travel products, such as neck pillows, blankets, and massage tools; and cryotherapy services, compression services, and personal care services, as well as retail products. As of April 6, 2020, it provided its services through 51 locations in 25 airports worldwide. The company was formerly known as FORM Holdings Corp. and changed its name to XpresSpa Group, Inc. in January 2018. XpresSpa Group, Inc. is headquartered in New York, New York. Sector: Consumer Cyclical Industry: Personal Services Market Cap(M$): 97 52 Week High: 5.45$ 52 Week Low: 0.05$ Forward PE: -3.48 Technical Analysis: Analyzing the stock from a technical perspective, we have these conclusions: The stock belongs to a weak sector which is related to tourism and flights but as the economies of the world are reopening, the stock may stage a bounce up, The latest earnings report was good (missing the current coronavirus related quarter), and technically it broke resistance with high volume, We open a long position at the current market price with a stop loss of 12% down, Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
XLong
by Alon_AOB
8
SPY-Broad Sector Support , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Market Outlook 01.06.2020 S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average following a broad sector recovery The stock market extended its rally this week on continued optimism about an economic recovery and a fear of missing out on further gains. The S&P500 was up +3.0% for the week, base on a nice uptrend in All 11 S&P 500 sectors which had finished in the green and supported the S&P 500 to close above its 200 days moving average. U.S.-China relations are front news again as there was uncertainty regarding China approving legislation to tighten its control over Hong Kong. Trump said the U.S. will remove special treatment for Hong Kong, will review practices of companies from China on U.S. financial exchanges, and will terminate its relationship with the HWO (World Health Organization), as he is trying to maneuver domestic riots from home. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making. 295-310 - This is the best scenario we have for the rest of 2020. This bullish range holds as long as the price is above 295 280-295 - is the current locked trading range, when prices went above 295, it triggered a bullish signal in our systems. 265-280 is the bearish zone. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Staying bullish , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, Market Outlook 18.05.2020 This week the stock market returned to positive territory with big technology companies leading the heard. The stock market was up this week with the S&P 500 +3.2% to end the week at 2955.45. Moderna (MRNA) was responsible for most of the earnings this week after announcing they have preliminary results for a coronavirus vaccine, this piece of news jump-started the week as the market made most of this week’s return on this day. The fed chair had its own contribution to the elevated markets reiterating the fed has not finished it’s support of the market and still has ammunition to fight this, this declaration kept the market hovering close to 3000 psychologically critical levels AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making. 295-310 - This is the best scenario we have for the rest of 2020. This bullish range holds as long as the price is above 295 280-295 - is the current locked trading range, when prices went above 295, it triggered a bullish signal in our systems. 265-280 is the bearish zone. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Decision Point , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 18.05.2020 This week the stock market returned to positive territory with big technology companies leading the heard. Stocks decline las week after Fed J.Powell earns about recovery, US-China tensions increase The stock was down this week with the S&P 500 down -2.3% to 2863.7. This week continued the previous few weeks high volatility environment that is probably here to stay for the next few weeks as the market is in a crucial decision point, On one hand, there are the bulls pulling up with FOMO, positive hope for a vaccine against the coronavirus, optimism about the short duration of the current recession and economy reopening soon, on the other hand, there are the bears pulling down with economic conditions fear, uncertainty as to how and when will the economy recover and what is the damage to small-medium size businesses, for us 2850 for the S&P500 is that decision point, moving above it means the bulls have won and below means, the bears are in control. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast We have chartered a number of bands for the S&P500, these bands are used for risk control and decision making. 285-290 - this is the bullish zone, as long as the S&P500 stays in or above this zone, the sentiment is bullish. 280-265 - This is the “Undecided” zone where the market had not decided yet as to where the stock market is going. Below 265 - is the bearish zone with the bears in control pulling prices downwards. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Decision Time , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The S&P 500 lost 1.9% last week ending the week at 283, below the next resistance of 285, as more and more countries around the world reach deep into the government pockets to get the much-needed funds to get the world economy going once again. The US, Europe and other global markets declined last week as a meltdown in oil prices increased volatility in the markets. The May WTI oil futures contract price dropped to a negative price before expiring, and the June contract price dropped too, this is the first time in history that oil prices are negative. The very bad move in oil prices is a result of many factors, such as selling pressure due to technicals prior to contract expiration, plus limited storage space due to a drop in demand for oil. Stock prices improved later in the week with the government enacting another coronavirus relief package that includes additional funds for small businesses. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast The next few weeks are decision time for the market and cherry-picking for specific stocks that may be the early ones to come out of this current crisis. The market has been range trading for some time as traders as contemplating which way to go, up or down, range trading usually means very good time period to cherry-pick specific, high-quality stocks at favorable prices which is what we did last week and will continue to do this week as well. Our models support the more optimistic side of the market with a 310 target for SPY in the near future that will be followed by a correction and then another leg up. Are we in a stock market bubble? Our models support a slow recovery in the market, with a sharp disconnect from main street and the economy and that's for a number of reasons : 1. Massive stimulus packages 2. Massive rate cuts, together with 1 that means a lot of cheap money that has to go somewhere 3. Many bargains at current price levels 4. Deep optimism within the trading community that usually translates into an uptrend That's our forecast and we follow that in our portfolio BUT we also have quite large hedge positions and tight risk policies. Is it time to buy Oil-related stocks? An experienced trader should know to filter the noise and look at the market reality from a neutral, non-judgmental stand, The current meltdown in oil creates many good opportunities for companies relying on oil-related products to lower costs and provide high-quality products at cheaper prices. Oil is not only the source for transportation but also serves as the basis for other related products, such as: soap, perfume, and other cosmetics fertilizer, insecticides for the agriculture industry tar, asphalt for the infrastructure domain and last but not least Plastic, which is the base for many products from kitchenware, furniture all the way to packaging. So when doing research for opportunities these sectors should also hold some of them. AlphaOverBeta uptrending watchlist Using AOB Dashboard to spot trending opportunities in the market. APA MUR FLR XOP SIRI EBAY Check out the list on our Dashboard Out top-ranking stock for the week is Apache Corporation (APA) Apache Corporation is an independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company has operations in onshore assets located in the Permian and Midcontinent/Gulf Coast onshore regions; and offshore assets situated in the Gulf of Mexico region. AlphOverBeta Sectors rank As we stated last week, the biopharmaceutical and healthcare sectors are picking up momentum, we estimate that this trend is a long term one and is here to stay, the next 6-9 months are going to be all about protecting ourselves from the current and future pandemic, so these sectors make complete sense to investors, Our long equity portfolio is long on the sector and specific picks in that sector Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
2
SPY-Closing on resistance , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookMarket Outlook 19.04.2020 The S&P 500 gained 2.7% last week ending the week at 287.5, very close to the next resistance of 290, as more and more countries around the world reach deep into the government pockets to get the much-needed funds to get the world economy going once again. The next quarter is going to be much about the companies earning report and the economic contraction in many countries, the news from China is -6.5% contraction, for the first time in at least two decades. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast The next week is going to be a tougher fight between the bottom callers and the more optimistic voices in the market, as two powers are pulling the market to both sides the suffering economy on one hand and the stimulus packages that support it on the other, the US government reacted fast and with big money and at least in the short term its working and the market is moving forward. Our models support the more optimistic side of the fight with a 290 target for SPY in the near future that will be followed by a correction and then another leg up. Are we in a stock market bubble? Stock market bubbles are created when assets are overpriced, way and beyond their fair value. Examining equity prices under the economic conditions we might say that last week's move inflated prices way over their fair value. Current indices are now less than 20% down from the all-time high, that's out of bearish territory that was declared only two weeks ago. So which prices are fair value? The - 35% bottom made three weeks ago? Or the current prices which are only 20% off the all-time high? We are in a fed created bubble.. again. As the fed was trying to stabilize the economy they threw money at the problem which ultimately finds its way to equities and bond markets. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Short term 1-2-3 pattern , AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, The stock market continued to rally last week as trader risk appetite continued to increase with the Fed announcing more stimulus action. The S&P 500 gained 12.1% in one of the best weeks since the 90's The coronavirus situation is starting to be a little bit more optimistic as some countries like Italy and Spain start to see their curve flattening and the number of cases in the US is moving to the lower side of the estimates. AlphOverBeta Next Week Forecast Next week is going to be a key week for the market as the rally hit a certain high that will test the buyers, in case the S&P500 holds over the 2600 level, this will be a significant strong bullish trigger, on the other side, the 2450 is used as the levels to watch for another leg to the downside. When reading and listening to all the trading experts, you hear the same advice from all - stay out, for now, the risk is not over, pick the higher-quality stocks and the market didn't bottom yet. A simple question - if that's so, how is it that the market is up? Who's buying? Can't be retail traders, they are out, listening to the "gurus", so... It's the gurus buying! That's the only conclusion here, they tell nice stories, but in the meantime, they buy the dip. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPYLong
by Alon_AOB
6
SPY range trading, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, SPY had completed a 1-2-3 pattern and is consolidating its price pattern, this is very good technical news as price returned to standard behavior after moving wildly and unpredictably. The current trade range is 245-265 in the short term, any move above the 265( which our model begins to increase the probability for! ) will provide a bullish short term indication, moving below the 240-245 will provide the trigger that the market is headed to re-test the 220 lows. We are currently short term bullish on SPY with PUT options hedging our position, crossing the 265-270 resistance will provide a major trigger to go long equities. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
2
SPY 1-2-3 Pattern, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, SPY Had just completed a 1-2-3 pattern confirming the 265 as the short term top. Our technical analysis models predict a downtern next week re-testing the 220 lows, There is mote than 50% that the low of the 220 will break marking the 200 as the next level to watch. breaking the 220 level will trigger a strong short trigger for SPY and other weak stocks on AlphaOverBeta short watchlist available for our subscribers Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Short term bounce , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, SPY dropped 35% since its all-time high in the last 5 weeks, At the moment traders are looking for direction and any estimate is just that .. an estimate. Our models set two lines for SPY to cross and trigger a meaningful alert. 245 to the upside, crossing this line to the upside should increase risk in the long portfolio, the second line for long risk increase is 270 220 to the downside, this is the lowest the market has been in this downturn, crossing this line to the downside significantly increases the risk in the short portfolio (or cash) Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
Weekly Outlook, AlphaOverBetaHello traders, As we are approaching the end of this volatile week of trading, I would like to conclude it with these insights : 1. The fed proved once again they contribute to the short term volatility instead of doing their job and keep stability in the markets, firing their entire arsenal at a problem that is has a small financial base (and a big psychological base) is definitely an overshoot 2. Traders are pricing the slowdown that we are facing (and will continue to) following the government reaction to the coronavirus, this will stay at least unto Q2 3. Oil prices are too low, selling it at these ridiculous prices will hurt oil-related companies bottom line, cheap is not always good 4. The market will recover, participate and don't anticipate. Trade smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
SPY-Short term Support/Resistance , AlphaOverBeta Market OutlookHello traders, The market had its first trade halt since 2008, and volatility is extremely high (more than 4 times the average), Trading the market is challenging. Our models have set two checkpoints for the market to make a short term decision: 270 - is the short term support for the S&P500, breaking that support would generate another leg to the downside 290 - is the short term resistance, breaking it to the upside would trigger a short term rally to the upside Remember to trade with rules, not emotions, the market will rebound, make sure you are in the game to benefit from it. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB