Beyond Technical Analysis
TSLA : Technical Analysis Report - 30 June 2025Trend:
The primary trend (big picture) is upward. Bullish momentum is weak.
Short Term Trend : sideways / consolidation. Regardless of the larger trend, momentum within a sideways range is typically neutral or flat, reflecting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.
Pattern : Symmetrical Triangle Patte rn
A symmetrical triangle is like a market catching its breath. It's a temporary pause in a trend. Once the price breaks out of the triangle, it usually continues in the same direction it was going before. Until that breakout, it's a neutral pattern.
Key levels :
R2 - 366
R1 - 356
S1 - 315 -The price is facing the support 215.
S2 - 275
Tips for Trading
Wait for a confirmed breakout (e.g., a daily candlestick close above/below the trendline) to avoid false signals
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Note :
If you’re interested in receiving detailed technical analysis reports on your selected stocks, feel free to reach out to me. I can provide you with customized reports covering trends, key levels, momentum, patterns, and price projections to support your investment decisions.
AAPL : Technical Analysis Report - 29 June 2025
Trend:
The primary trend (big picture) is downward. Bearish momentum is weak.
Short Term Trend : sideways / consolidation. Momentum in sideways trends is usually weak and indecisive. Sideways within a long term downtrend is often a continuation pattern.
Reasons:
Market Uncertainty: Waiting for news, earnings, or macro events.
Accumulation/Distribution: Smart money prepares for the next move (either continuation or reversal).
Pattern : Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
The pattern represents a temporary pause in the prevailing trend. The symmetrical triangle is considered a continuation pattern. This means that the price is likely to continue in the direction of the trend that preceded the triangle's formation. Neutral pattern until the breakout direction is confirmed.
Key levels :
R2 - 214
R1 - 206
S1 - 193
S2 - 186
Tips for Trading
Wait for a confirmed breakout (e.g., a daily candlestick close above/below the trendline) to avoid false signals
-----------------------
Note :
If you’re interested in receiving detailed technical analysis reports on your selected stocks, feel free to reach out to me. I can provide you with customized reports covering trends, key levels, momentum, patterns, and price projections to support your investment decisions.
SPX500 Detailed Trading Game Plan🎯 Current Market Context:
Current Price: 6,000 (Approx.)
Trend: Bullish; forming higher highs and higher lows.
Key Technical Observations:
Strong support and trendline respecting bullish structure.
Fibonacci confluence points towards potential upside momentum continuation.
Volume Profile indicating key levels at 5,950–6,000.
🚦 Trading Scenarios & Probabilistic Setups:
🟢 Scenario A (High Probability Long Trade ~65%):
Entry Zone: Current Levels (6,000–5,950) or retest to 5,863 support.
Stop Loss: Below 5,709 (critical structural support).
Targets:
Primary: 6,262 (100% Fibonacci Extension)
Secondary: 6,460 (Key Horizontal Resistance)
Risk-to-Reward: Favorable (~1:3)
🟡 Scenario B (Medium Probability Short Trade ~45%):
Entry Zone: 6,460–6,500 (strong resistance confluence)
Stop Loss: Above 6,600 (clear invalidation)
Targets:
Primary: 6,100 (structural retest)
Secondary: 5,950–5,863 (previous support zone)
Risk-to-Reward: Good (~1:2)
🔴 Scenario C (Low Probability but High Reward Long Trade ~35%):
Entry Zone: Deep retracement at ~5,408–5,106
(Invalidated if price breaks below 5,107.)
Stop Loss: Below 5,107 (firm invalidation)
Targets:
Primary: 5,950 (key resistance)
Extended: 6,460–7,176 (long-term bullish target)
Risk-to-Reward: Excellent (~1:5+), but lower likelihood of triggering.
📊 Probability & Risk Management Summary:
Scenario Probability Risk Reward Potential
A (Long) 65% ✅ Moderate High
B (Short) 45% ⚠️ Moderate Moderate
C (Long Deep) 35% ❗ Lower Very High
⚙️ Recommended Approach:
Primary Strategy: Bullish Continuation (Scenario A) due to current market structure and volume profile confirmation.
Secondary Consideration: Watch closely for Short Setup (Scenario B) only upon clear resistance signals.
Contingency Setup: Deep retracement (Scenario C) provides excellent value entry if fundamentals trigger a major correction.
🛠 Trade Management Tips:
Position Size according to scenario probabilities. Allocate larger sizing to Scenario A, cautious sizing for Scenario B, and small, speculative sizing for Scenario C.
Trailing Stops: As price approaches targets, adjust stops to lock profits progressively.
🗓 Timeline & Key Levels for Reference:
Immediate actionable trades: Scenario A (Long) setup at current levels.
Monitor closely by Mid-August 2025 for Scenario B potential short setup.
Watch closely for deep retracement scenario by November 2025 if substantial correction occurs.
🚨 Important Note: Always adjust your trades dynamically based on evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical news. These probabilities are guidelines—not certainties.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. The information provided is purely for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice, a recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Always perform your own analysis, consider your financial situation and risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before executing trades. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You alone bear the full responsibility for any investment decision you make.
Stay disciplined, trade wisely, and good luck! 🍀📊
DXY Game Plan - USD IndexIt is important to watch the DXY to understand the strength of the USD across global markets.
The DXY is a key index that reflects the U.S. dollar’s dominance in foreign exchange. Therefore, tracking it can provide valuable insights into the potential direction of all major asset classes.
In this post, I’ll break down both technical and fundamental expectations.
Technical Analysis
DXY has been in a retracement phase (bearish) since January 2025. During this time, we’ve seen EUR and other major forex pairs form strong bullish trends.
Currently, the DXY is approaching a weekly bullish trendline, where I expect a potential bounce.
Additionally, DXY is trading within a discount zone (below the 0.5 Fibonacci level, also known as equilibrium). Personally, I’m watching for a deeper move into the maximum discount zone (around the 0.75 Fib level).
This area also aligns with key liquidity concepts. Ideally, I want to see a deviation below the bullish trendline, with a sweep of one of the weekly liquidity levels marked on the chart (two black horizontal lines).
I'm not relying on a clean triangle trendline retest, but it's a possibility.
Game Plan
DXY taps the bullish trendline
Deviates below it, running weekly liquidity (black lines)
Hits the max discount zone (~0.75 Fib)
Then shows signs of reversal and strength
Once that setup completes, I’ll be expecting strong USD performance, and will look to short risk assets — including stocks and major forex pairs.
Fundamental Analysis
The Federal Reserve is currently resisting pressure to cut interest rates, while Trump is vocally pushing for rate cuts.
The market is already pricing in a 79% probability of a September rate cut (source: CME FedWatch Tool), so if that happens as expected, I don’t anticipate major market reaction.
However, a surprise rate cut in July would likely trigger a flash crash in DXY/USD — though based on my game plan, I would expect a V-shaped recovery shortly afterward.
EUR, GBP, AUD, and CAD have also hit key resistance zones, so I believe we're likely to see USD strength for a while.
Part of the “The Bessent Effect” Explained: Challenge the FedThe 10-year Treasury yield is the heartbeat of commercial lending — it’s what sets the tone for everything from real estate financing to economic sentiment. And interestingly, it’s now hovering right around the same level it was on Election Day 2024 (Blue Line), which feels like a lifetime ago in policy terms.
So what’s happened since then? Quite a bit.
Yields peaked the week before Inauguration Day (Red Line), then began a steady decline — until we were hit with what can only be described as "Liberation Day Tariff Whiplash."
The tariffs, announced in early April (Yellow Line), spooked the markets — particularly the ever-watchful Real Money Investors (think central banks, pension funds, and the ruthless whales). Their reaction? A spike in the 10-year, as they scrambled to reassess risk and reposition.
Plot twist: Trump’s unleashing of Scott Bessent.
Since stepping into the role of Treasury Secretary, Bessent has taken the reins of U.S. economic diplomacy. By late May (Purple Line), he was already deep in talks at the G7 meeting in Banff, hashing out trade dynamics and currency cooperation with global finance leaders. And — perhaps not so coincidentally — since then, the 10-year has been on the decline again, even as the Fed remains firm in its refusal to cut rates.
Here’s the big takeaway: there's a strong chance we could see rates — the ones that actually move the real estate market and reflect how the “real players” feel — drift back down to their pre-tariff levels. That is, before Tariff Derangement Syndrome set in. And probably before they shoot back up to the peaks we saw just as Trump returned to the White House.
In short: the 10-year might be hinting that the worst isn't over — but we could be in for a stretch of green pastures before we hit the next storm.
Follow on X: @TheAlphaView
YETI | Long | Seasonal & Technical Setup | (June 30, 2025)YETI | Long | Seasonal & Technical Setup | (June 30, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
YETI is preparing for a potential breakout if it can reclaim key resistance levels, supported by summer seasonality and brand strength.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long (only if condition is met)
Entry: $41.00 (needs to break and hold above this level to confirm strength)
Stop Loss: $39.00 (below recent structure)
TP1: $48.00
TP2: $51.00
TP3: $54.00
Final Target: $59.67
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Strong seasonality from June to September, usually driven by outdoor activities and summer sales.
✅ Financially, YETI remains solid with revenue around $1.83 billion and net income ~$175 million.
✅ The company is heavily U.S.-focused and most revenue comes from drinkware and coolers.
✅ Entry condition: I will only enter if price clearly breaks and sustains above $41. If this doesn’t happen, I stay out.
❌ Risks include margin compression and weaker consumer spending.
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
Will actively monitor price action above $41 and update if conditions change.
ACIW | Watchlist | Software & Fintech Growth Setup | (June 30, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
ACIW (ACI Worldwide) is showing healthy fundamental improvements but remains in a sideways technical structure. Worth watching for a potential setup later this year.
2️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ ACIW focuses on software for real-time electronic payments, working with banks, merchants, billers, and government sectors.
✅ Financials look solid: Debt has decreased from ~$1.23 billion to ~$970 million over four years, and cash flow remains healthy.
✅ Revenue growth outlook is strong, with expectations for steady gains in upcoming years.
✅ Seasonal pattern: Often shows sideways movement, but tends to rally in November — making it a possible watchlist candidate for later in the year.
❌ For now, no immediate entry. Will only consider if specific conditions are met (e.g., strong technical breakout or confirmed momentum).
3️⃣ Follow-up Note:
Staying on watchlist until setup aligns; no rush to enter without a clear confirmation.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Technical Weekly AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
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Analysis
Germany 40 is neutral and ranging, eyeing a possible breakout. It trades at 24,021, close to its VWAP of 23,601. The RSI at 58 shows mild bullish bias. Support is at 22,882 and resistance at 24,320.
UK 100 is also in a neutral range phase, trading at 8,791 just under the VWAP of 8,833 - still with 9k on the horizon. RSI sits at 52, indicating balance. Key support lies at 8,731, with resistance at 8,916.
Wall Street has broken out above 43k into a new bullish phase. It’s trading at 44,032, significantly above its VWAP of 42,673. RSI at 71 confirms strong upward momentum. Support is at 41,379, resistance is being tested now.
Brent Crude is currently in a neutral range phase, trading at 6,699 having slumped back below its VWAP of 7,063. The RSI at 45 signals low momentum. Support is noted at 6,206, with resistance at 7,919.
Gold is moving sideways in a neutral range, drifting lower after a failed breakout over 3,400, priced at 3,293 with VWAP at 3,349. RSI is soft at 44. Support comes in at 3,252 and resistance at 3,446.
EUR/USD is bullish and breaking out - with the 1.20 handle in sight. It trades at 1.1722, easily above the VWAP of 1.1552. RSI at 71 reflects strong buying pressure. Support is at 1.1349, resistance at 1.1730.
GBP/USD is bullish and moving impulsively. It trades at 1.3700, above the VWAP of 1.3559. RSI at 63 signals steady upward momentum. Support sits at 1.3358, and resistance at 1.3761.
USD/JPY is neutral and ranging, trading at 144.13 slightly below VWAP at 144.87. The RSI is weak at 46. Support via May & June lows is only just below with the 2 s.d. of the VWAP at 143.42, while resistance is higher at 146.32.
YETI | Long | Seasonal & Technical Setup | (June 30, 2025)YETI | Long | Seasonal & Technical Setup | (June 30, 2025)
1️⃣ Insight Summary:
YETI is showing signs of a potential bounce after a long range-bound period since 2022. With seasonality kicking in (summer boost) and strong brand recognition, a quick upside move looks possible in the coming weeks.
2️⃣ Trade Parameters:
Bias: Long
Entry: $30.58 (current support zone)
Stop Loss: $25.05 (below key range support)
TP1: $35.00
TP2: $38.00
TP3: $46.69
Final Target: $52.88
3️⃣ Key Notes:
✅ Financial snapshot: Revenue ~$1.83 billion and net income ~$175 million, with a PE ratio of ~14, making it relatively affordable compared to peers.
✅ Gross margins have been slightly declining over recent quarters, but overall debt-to-cash flow remains reasonable.
✅ Around 90% of revenue comes from the U.S., with most sales in drinkware and coolers — products that see higher demand from June to September (summer season).
✅ Despite some weakness in financials, strong brand value and seasonal momentum could drive a short-term pump, potentially up to 50% within 2 months.
❌ Risks include ongoing margin compression and reduced consumer discretionary spending if macro volatility picks up.
4️⃣ Follow-up Note:
I’ll monitor this trade closely throughout summer, especially as it approaches $35 and $38 for possible partial exits or adjustments.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
NIFTY Short Term View <25650-25200>If you follow my other ideas, I think you are gaining trust on the tool ZZ. Please don't blindly follow me and my posts. I just want to make you curios that one tool with clear idea is enough to predict the market. But condition is you have to practice a ton.
Here I am sharing just glimpse of it, there are so many things to do with ZZ.
Keep learning || Trust analysis || Keep Trading & Investing
Any question or suggestion please feel free to comment below.
NIFTY THIS WEEK? What's the plan
"There’s more hidden in a candle chart than most headlines will ever reveal.”
If you look at this NIFTY chart casually, you’ll see just another uptrend. But if you feel the price — really look into the structure — you’ll notice something deeper:
We’re not just in a rally. We’re in a breakout after base-building. And that’s a very different game.
What I Noticed This Week:
1. Strong Follow-Through
NIFTY didn’t just pop — it’s sustaining gains. Each green candle is following the next without hesitation. That means institutions are buying, not just retailers reacting.
2. Previous Resistance = Gone
Look back at 25,200–25,300. That zone rejected price multiple times. Now? It’s broken clean, with a bullish Marubozu-style candle. That’s a confirmation, not just a fluke.
3. No Panic Selling Yet
Usually, breakouts invite profit booking. This one? Sellers are quiet. When there's no rejection at new highs, it tells you confidence is strong.
But Here’s What You Must Watch:
Are we near psychological exhaustion? Markets can get euphoric and overextend - even in strong trends. Volume Spike or Divergence? If volumes dry or RSI starts diverging, stay alert.
Global cues & Bank Nifty:
If Bank Nifty stalls, NIFTY will slow too. Watch correlation.
What This Means for You:
Trend is strong, but smart traders plan exits in upmoves - not panic in downmoves.
Ask yourself:
Do you have entries based on structure?
Are you overexposed at highs, hoping for more?
Are you following momentum blindly or with plan?
Personal Reflection:
I’ve learned this the hard way:
“Buying strength is good. But riding strength without a stop loss is just greed in disguise.”
So this week:
Observe, don’t chase.
Track - don’t blindly enter.
There’s always another breakout. But there’s only one portfolio.
ETHUSDT WEEKLY UPDATE — PART 1
When Conviction Fails: Apex Rejection, Hidden Redistribution, and the Illusion of Demand
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, wherever you're tapping in from. Now, as always, I’m not here to waste your time with unnecessary waffle. Let’s get straight into it and unpack this mess step-by-step.
THE APEX REJECTION | MORE THAN JUST A WICK
So picking up from last week's update, we find ourselves right at the crossroads, and not the romantic kind either. What we’re looking at right now so far, is a clean yet 100% conclusive rejection from the apex of a key macro structure.
This isn’t just any level. This is the intersection of vertical momentum and horizontal memory, the apex of a triangle that’s been forming for months. This is where bullish intent was supposed to hold, supposed to assert dominance, but instead, what did we get? A strong push into resistance, a failure to fix above it, followed by exhaustion and signs of institutional unloading.
Now, to the untrained eye, this may look like a pullback, or even a healthy correction. But we’re not here to look at charts with retail goggles. We’re here to track the true intent behind the price action, and if you know your schematics, this is screaming redistribution. And not just any redistribution, the kind that happens right before the market changes its personality.
WHERE ARE WE IN THE SCHEMATIC?
If we overlay Wyckoff logic on top of this structure, it's very clear:
We’ve had our PSY (preliminary support).
Followed by a spring, a shakeout, and a fake rally.
Now we’re dancing around what appears to be the UTAD (upthrust after distribution) — but weaker.
This isn’t classic distribution, it’s redistribution masked in macro confusion.
Here’s the thing this range isn’t just price consolidation, it’s behavioural conditioning. This long, choppy sideways movement is designed to wear out both bulls and bears, making them question their bias, mismanage their risk, and either overstay or exit too early.
The market is methodical, not random. These candles aren’t accidents, they are footprints of algorithmic trap setting, and right now, it looks like the net is about to close.
VOLUME TELLS THE TRUTH
Let’s not forget volume. Look at the weekly volume through this recent push:
Decreasing volume on the rallies,
Higher volume on the red closes,
And multiple spikes that failed to carry price past resistance.
That’s your dead giveaway. You don’t need to be a wizard, just follow the clues. Price is being pushed, not lifted. Demand isn’t stepping in, liquidity is being removed. This isn’t smart money accumulation, if confirmed by the endd of this week, this most recent move up cout be doing of smart money unloading, Quietly and Efficiently.
THE MARKDOWN IS PRIMED
Let’s now address the elephant in the room, the range low and point C of the triangle on the 4H.
T hat’s where liquidity is sitting.
That’s where the market’s next objective lies.
We’ve now failed to reclaim the apex, the wick was slapped down, and unless something significant shifts, the next logical move is to sweep that C point, take out the emotional support, and either:
Tap into true demand (if it exists), or
Begin the cascade toward the final green demand zones between 2,150–2,070, which we marked weeks ago.
And don’t forget, this sweep may not be clean. We could get a fakeout bounce mid-range — enough to bait in more longs, only to roll over again.
PSYCHOLOGICAL LAYER
What’s happening here isn’t just technical, it’s emotional warfare. This entire range has been one long gaslight for the average trader. Between the failed breakouts, failed breakdowns, and chaotic intraday behaviour, retail has been turned into liquidity.
And if you’re still trying to long blindly at the top of this, hoping for 3k ETH without a confirmed structure reclaim, then respectfully, you’re the product right now.
Coming next in Part 2:
A full breakdown of the 4H macro setup
Analysis of the internal range mechanics
Recalculated fib zones
Where the liquidity pockets are
What the most probable path is short, medium, and long-term
Stay tuned — I’ll keep the flow coherent, structured, and aggressive. No fluff. No hopium. Just structure, psychology, and execution.
Gold Faces Resistance Near $3,300 Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data📊 Market Highlights:
Gold holds firm above $3,280 supported by expectations of future Fed rate cuts, but upside momentum has stalled as traders await this Friday’s U.S. jobs report. A slight rebound in the U.S. dollar and elevated bond yields are pressuring gold in the short term.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistances:
– $3,300 (strong psychological and profit-taking level)
– $3,320 (last week’s high – potential heavy selling zone)
• Key Supports:
– $3,255 (short-term dynamic support – EMA 09)
– $3,230 (major support from previous breakout structure)
• EMA 09: Price remains above the 09 EMA → trend still bullish
• Momentum: The bullish momentum is weakening. A shooting star candle near $3,300 and RSI approaching overbought territory (>70) suggest a possible short-term correction.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may retreat to $3,255 or lower if it fails to break above the $3,300–$3,320 resistance zone. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact as long as price holds above $3,230.
💡 Suggested Trade Setup:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,295 – $3,300
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: $3,305
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,255 – $3,260
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: $3,245
LONG JNPR @ 38.85 -- oversoldRolling the proceeds of my 1 day CBOE trade into JNPR hoping for the same result. The system is 27-0 on JNPR since the beginning of 2024, but it has had a few long trades in that time.
I will be using my FPC exit (see my recent ideas for details if you aren't familiar). I will add lots at the close each day it stays oversold until I'm out of the trade completely.
Trade my ideas at your own risk. They are provided here as edutainment,not as advice. Please DYOR and only invest in ideas that fit your personal situation.
BTCUSD 6/30/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you ANOTHER update, to ANOTHER successful call-out, with ANOTHER Top-Down Analysis.
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
#PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
Market next move 📉 Gold Price Disruption Analysis – 1H Chart
Current Price: $3,282.880
Timeframe: 1-Hour
Trend Direction: Bearish bias with possible continuation toward $3,250
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🔻 Bearish Scenario (Planned Path):
Support Turned Resistance: The area around $3,290 acted as strong resistance (previous support). Price failed to break above.
Lower High Formation: Price has created a lower high, indicating potential continuation to the downside.
Projected Target: A zigzag downward move is expected, with a target near $3,250, aligning with a key demand/support zone.
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⚠️ Disruption Possibilities (Unexpected Movements):
🔁 1. Bullish Disruption Risk:
If buyers step in aggressively above $3,283–$3,285, we may see:
A break of structure
A reversal toward the $3,290+ zone
Possible formation of a double bottom or inverse head and shoulders
Disruption Target: $3,295–$3,300
🧨 2. False Breakdown at Support ($3,250):
Market could dip slightly below $3,250 to trap sellers and then reverse sharply.
A liquidity grab might lead to sudden bullish pressure, creating a disruption bounce.
📊 3. Fundamental Disruption Factors:
US Dollar strength/weakness
Fed interest rate news
Inflation data releases
These can instantly invalidate technical patterns and push price in either direction.