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Next Volatility Period: Around June 6 Hello, traders. Please "Follow" to get the latest information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) This is the last day of this volatility period. To continue the uptrend, the price needs to rise above at least 109403.63 and hold. If it fails to rise, we need to check if it is supported near 106843.58. And we need to see if it can touch the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and rise. If the price is maintained above the HA-High indicator, it is also important to see if the price can be maintained above 106843.58, as there is a possibility of a stepwise rise. The next volatility period is expected to be around June 6. - (30m chart) It seems that the basic trading strategy is being followed faithfully. That is, it is showing a pattern of buying near the HA-Low indicator and selling near the HA-High indicator. Therefore, we need to focus on finding a trading point when the HA-Low or HA-High indicator is touched. However, if it is supported by the HA-High indicator and rises, it is likely to show a stepwise upward trend, and if it is resisted by the HA-Low indicator and falls, it is likely to show a stepwise downward trend. Even so, we must not forget that the end of a stepwise upward trend is a decline, and the end of a stepwise downward trend is an increase. At the current price position, the important points on the 1D chart are 111696.21, 109403.63, and 106843.58. Therefore, when looking at the 30m chart, if the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are generated near the important points above, it is necessary to interpret that point as forming a more important section. In other words, the HA-Low indicator was generated at the 107096.41 point near the current 106843.58 point, and it eventually showed an upward trend. Therefore, if the HA-Low indicator is newly generated as the price falls, you should check if there is an important point near it. Otherwise, if it touches the existing HA-Low indicator point of 107094.41 again, it is more likely to fall because it touches the second time, so you need to be careful when trading. This means that the HA-Low indicator is likely to rise when it is first generated, and is likely to fall when it touches the second time. Conversely, the HA-High indicator is likely to fall when it is first generated, and is likely to rise when it touches the second time. Since the interpretation of the indicator is not 100% applicable, you should check the support and find the trading point. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​This is an explanation of the big picture. (3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern) I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
2
NNFX AUDNZD Short - Full Signal DelayedSignal: AUDNZD Short — Full Signal Delayed Context: C1 signal, C2 2 days ago Probability: Normal Risk: 0.5% → C2 signal 2 days ago, all other indicators align. Volume is short. R:R Plan: 1.3R, 75% scale-out at 1xATR TP for lower probability & drawdown management. --- Notes: Again, this is a trade I would not normally take, however, market gapped considerably below the close of the candle which my C1 triggered. The original candle where my C1 should have triggered if this was to be a full signal on time, was literally 1-2 pips away from triggering. Price had then pulled back on the next day, then gone short again on this day, triggering the C1. Due to an order block sitting about 15 pips below price, I also would have used a pending order to enter the market which would not have been triggered until today. Given this circumstance, and the gift of hindsight, this would have been a missed signal if I did not enter. I managed to enter at the same price I would have if the trade was completed 2 days ago but reduced risk to 0.5% to be cautious.
Short
by RealJudgeFPV
Unity Software (U) – Strong Earnings and Bullish FlowsFundamental Overview Unity Software has been consolidating within a defined range for approximately a year following a significant decline in its stock price. Despite previous challenges, the company has consistently surprised investors with its earnings over the past year, maintaining strong performance. Historically, Unity tends to perform well during the May–June period. Looking ahead, projections suggest a decline in net margin, though net income is expected to increase, reinforcing the company's strong execution. Additionally, Unity has exceeded expectations for four consecutive earnings reports, underscoring its resilience and growth trajectory. Technical Outlook - Momentum & Price Action: The stock exhibits solid momentum and is currently situated in a buy zone. - Options Flow: Bullish sentiment is evident in options activity, signaling strong institutional interest. - Analyst Ratings: - Needham analyst Bernie McTernan maintains a Buy rating but lowers the price target from $33 to $30. - Barclays analyst Ross Sandler maintains an Equal-Weight rating and lowers the price target from $26 to $25. Given the current trends, bullish options flows, and favorable seasonality, Unity Software appears poised to test $25 in the upcoming weeks, particularly if momentum continues to drive price action.
NYSE:ULong
by Wiiso
Apple - Please look at this chart!Apple - NASDAQ:AAPL - is just wonderful: (click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻) Last month, Apple created a quite strong bullish rejection wick of about +25%. It was actually no surprise at all, because market structure was perfectly pushing price higher. Following the bullish break and retest pattern, new all time highs will most likely follow. Levels to watch: $200, $300 Keep your long term vision! Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by basictradingtv
11
DOG Main Trend. Reversal Zones 05/29/2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. The chart shows key reversal zones in the horizontal channel, and when exiting it. For clarity, percentages are shown from the skin reversal zone. This is convenient for understanding the risk and potential profit in long and short work. You can also work in spot from long, from key zones (more relevant, as margin trading on assets of such liquidity, is extremely destructive, due to price slippage under the market, but already on such assets by a huge percentage, for your liquidation (accumulation of liquidity-benefit of gambling addicts in general). Now the price has hit the resistance of the internal channel, that is, the zone of the “main liquid” price movement. From the reversal, local profit is significant, therefore, when working, observe risk management and wait for a breakthrough of this resistance level (you can place a trigger order), or wait for a rollback (if there is one), for example, to the median of the channel. The horizontal channel itself is reformatted into a potential “microphone” (what was half a year ago on bitcoin, with resistance to the 72 thousand zone, and liquidity collection 53-58).
by SpartaBTC
BTC Trap & Reverse: The Power of SFPs in ActionBTC continues to chop in a tight range near its previous all-time high. While price action may appear messy at first glance, traders using a combination of structure, Fibonacci levels, and order flow tools are spotting clean opportunities — especially through Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs). 🔍 What Just Happened? Bitcoin recently rejected from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level — a classic reaction zone. What made this move powerful was the SFP that formed at that level. Price swept above a prior high, triggering breakout buys, only to reverse. This type of move traps late longs and offers an ideal short entry. 🧠 Educational Insight: Why SFPs Are One of the Best Setups SFPs (Swing Failure Patterns) are some of the highest-probability trades you can take for a few key reasons: 1️⃣ Liquidity-driven: They form where stop losses cluster — above highs or below lows — creating a magnet for price. 2️⃣ Clean invalidation: The wick high/low gives a natural stop-loss level, keeping risk tight. 3️⃣ Fast reaction: Once trapped traders are forced to exit, price often reverses sharply — giving you strong follow-through. 4️⃣ Confirmable with order flow: Using tools like Exocharts, you can see aggressive longs/shorts piling in just before the reversal. This adds conviction to the setup. 📏 Current Confluence: Rejection from the 0.786 Fib retracement SFP confirmed on high volume 1:1 trend-based Fib extension sits at ~$105,410 That level also lines up with the 0.666 Fib retracement Anchored VWAP around $105K Liquidity pool right at that zone too — a likely magnet 🎯 Trade Idea: Short triggered at the SFP wick, stop just above it. First target: the 1:1 extension near $105.4K. Risk-reward is excellent with high probability if price continues to unwind late longs. ✅ Key Takeaway: In ranges like this, you don’t need to guess direction — you need to react to structure. SFPs give you that edge. When paired with real-time tools like Exocharts and anchored VWAPs, these trades become sniper entries rather than coin flips. Let the market show its hand — and trade the reaction, not the prediction. 📌 Summary: This is how you avoid overtrading in chop: wait for key levels, watch how price reacts, and let trapped traders create the move. If BTC revisits the $105K region, it’s a major area to watch for reaction — or to take partials if you’re in a short. The best trades come from patience + precision. _________________________________ If you found this helpful, leave a like and comment below! Got requests for the next technical analysis? Let me know.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by SiDec
7
AUDJPY Short Setup – Fair Value Gap + 61.8% Precision Tap📊 AUDJPY | 1H Bearish Setup Breakdown (SMC Perspective) This is a clean setup for sniper traders 🧠 — a perfect blend of FVG, Fib retracement, and a reaction from Smart Money zones. Let’s dig in: 🔻 1. Macro Context: Bearish Bias Market structure is still bearish, with lower highs and lows Price just completed a correction phase We're seeing price react at a high probability distribution zone 🟪 2. Confluence Zones: FVG + Fib 📌 Fair Value Gap (FVG) – Price has just tapped into the FVG between 92.92 and 93.12 📌 61.8% Fib Level – Price perfectly aligns with golden pocket zone 📌 OB Above – Strong bearish order block lies around 93.60, with a Strong High marking retail’s target stop area This stack of confluences makes this zone ripe for a short entry. 💣 3. Entry Logic Entry was triggered after a clean tap into the FVG zone Price shows signs of rejection with long upper wicks and slowing momentum Ideal Smart Money scenario: Price mitigates FVG, avoids OB sweep (for now), and targets internal liquidity 🎯 4. Target Zone TP = 91.651 Clean equal lows and imbalance just above Channel midpoint & liquidity resting below Matches 0% Fib level on the move ⚖️ 5. Trade Setup 📍 Entry: 92.926 🔐 Stop Loss: ~93.390 (above FVG + structural high) 🎯 Target: 91.651 🧮 Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:4.5+ 🧠 Smart Money Flow Retail longs are eyeing a break above that “Strong High” — but Smart Money will likely: Tap into FVG Drive price down for a liquidity grab Possibly retest or sweep OB after internal liquidity is cleared 💬 Drop “FVG ZONE SNIPED 🧨” if you took the entry 🧠 Save this post to study FVG + Fib reactions 👀 Tag your trading buddy who needs to level up their confluence game
Short
by ChartNinjas88
2
BTC Bulls Awakening from the Shadows – OB + 79% Fib Reaction 📈 BTCUSD | 30-Min Bullish Reversal Setup from OB + 79% Fib Zone Smart Money never misses a good discount… and this BTCUSD setup is that juicy premium-to-discount play we wait for. 🔍 1. Price Action Context Market sold off into a clearly defined Order Block Price tapped precisely at the 79% Fib level Internal liquidity sweep confirmed below recent equal lows No candle close below OB = structure still intact This is what we call the "Trap + Reverse" move. Late shorts just got baited. 🧱 2. Confluences Stacking Up 💎 79% Fib Retracement — Deep discount zone for Smart Money 💎 Bullish Order Block — Last up candle before the sharp sell-off 💎 Liquidity Sweep — Price swept short-term lows = inducement 💎 Channel Structure — Midline bounce = potential breakout The OB + Fib overlap = a high-probability buy zone with minimal risk 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry Zone: 108,250–108,650 Stop Loss: Below 108,000 Take Profit: 110,758 (premium zone) ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 📥 Entry: ~108,400 🔒 SL: 108,000 💰 TP: 110,758 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:5.8 This is sniper-level asymmetric risk. You don’t chase candles — you wait here, like a lion in the grass 🦁. 🔁 5. What to Watch Next Price must reclaim and close above 108,867 for confirmation If we get a BOS (Break of Structure) above 109,200 = 🚀 Hold above the mid-channel line = bullish continuation 💬 Comment “LONGED BTC 💎” if you caught this with the OB bounce! 📌 Save this to study OB + Fib synergy. 👀 Watch price action at 109,200 — breakout zone incoming?
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by ChartNinjas88
USDJPY | Smart Money Long Setup – Deep Fib + OB Reaction💴 USDJPY | Institutional Long Play with Perfect OB + Fib Confluence Price gave us an aggressive push off the demand zone, showing clear Smart Money accumulation behavior. This setup is high probability based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC). 🔍 1. Technical Breakdown Strong impulse move upward Clean pullback into the Order Block Confluence with 70.5%–79% Fibonacci retracement zone Price respected the OB zone and printed higher highs That reaction was institutional — no cap 🧢. 🧱 2. Bullish Confluences 🔥 Order Block (OB): Purple demand zone = unmitigated 📐 Fib Sweet Spot: 70.5%–79% = institutional re-entry levels ✅ Strong Wick Rejection: Shows absorption of sell-side liquidity 📈 Market Structure Shift: Break of structure to the upside 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry: 142.89 (within OB + 70.5%) Stop Loss: 142.00 Take Profit: 145.49 zone This setup targets the -27% fib extension — a classic institutional TP level. ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 💰 Entry: 142.89 🔒 SL: 142.00 📍 TP: 145.49 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:2.9 Solid intraday-to-swing play with clean structure. 🧠 5. Key Confirmation Points Break and close above 144.36 = confirmed bullish intent Price respecting 143.44 OB = bulls still in control SL below OB = protected by demand block 💬 Comment “SMC Long Sniper 💹” if you caught this move! 🔄 Share this if you love OB + fib sniper entries 📌 Save this setup for your next demand zone playbook
Long
by ChartNinjas88
2
XAUUSD | Institutional Sell Setup – OB + 79% Fib Confluence🪙 XAUUSD | Gold Sell Setup Based on Smart Money Concepts This is a classic example of how institutions lure in retail traders — tap the golden zone, reject hard, and leave a trail of liquidated longs. 🔍 1. Technical Breakdown Price aggressively climbed into a strong Order Block zone Rejection from the 70.5%–79% Fibonacci retracement area Broken ascending channel confirms shift in momentum Bearish BOS already occurred = Smart Money in control This zone (3332–3357) is a magnet for institutional sells. 🧱 2. Bearish Confluences 💀 OB Rejection: Previous up candle before the sharp drop 📐 Fib Overlap: 70.5–79% = premium zone for shorts 📉 Structure Shift: Channel break + bearish order flow ⚠️ No Candle Close Above OB: = market respecting supply 🎯 3. Trade Plan Entry: 3332–3357 (executed) Stop Loss: 3360 (above OB) Take Profit: 3120 zone This is a deep sell-side liquidity hunt. ⚖️ 4. RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) 📥 Entry: ~3345 🔒 SL: 3360 💰 TP: 3120 ✅ RRR ≈ 1:15 This is a "swing short with conviction" kind of setup, where patience = profit. 🔁 5. Key Confirmation Points Watch for lower lows and lower highs to continue Price closing below 3290 = full confirmation If Gold reclaims 3360 = setup invalidated 💬 Comment “Sniped Gold 🥷💰” if you took this short! 📌 Save this chart for OB + Fib zone study 🎯 Post your entry/exit levels — let’s compare setups
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Whale Exposure to Global EconomyThe foreign-exchange (FX) market and the cryptocurrency market both rely on “market makers” and large “suppliers” to provide liquidity and facilitate trading—but the two systems operate on vastly different scales, under different rules, and with very different participant incentives. As crypto’s total capitalization races toward—and potentially beyond—\$5 trillion in the next major bull run, global markets will be increasingly exposed to crypto’s profit-maximizing whales and automated liquidity pools. Unless these structural differences are recognized and addressed, dramatic swings in crypto could spill over into traditional finance. Definition of Roles A market maker is an entity that continuously quotes buy and sell prices, profiting on the spread while absorbing order flow. In FX, these are predominantly regulated bank trading desks (J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank, UBS, etc.) that together handle roughly \$7.5 trillion in daily turnover. They operate under capital requirements, central-bank oversight, and risk-management frameworks designed to cap extreme volatility. In crypto, “market makers” include professional trading firms on centralized exchanges (e.g. Jump Trading, Wintermute) and code-driven Automated Market Makers (AMMs) like Uniswap, where any token holder can deposit assets into liquidity pools in return for fees. Unlike banks, AMM suppliers have no regulatory obligation to maintain quotes or hedge risk; they earn yield only when trading volume persists. A supplier (or “liquidity provider”) is any large holder whose stock of currency or tokens affects the supply available for trading. In FX, major commercial and investment banks also act as top suppliers, but they balance client flow management with broader fiduciary and policy considerations. Central banks even step in to smooth markets. In crypto, a tiny fraction of addresses control outsized shares: over 1.86 percent of addresses hold 90 percent of all Bitcoin, and whales with more than 1 million ETH own roughly 32 percent of Ethereum’s supply. These holders—driven by profit and market-timing motives rather than system stability—can on a whim remove or inject vast amounts of liquidity. Comparative Scale and Behavior Liquidity depth: FX’s interbank pool absorbs massive trades with minimal price impact. Crypto spot volume on top exchanges averages around \$60–80 billion per day—just one-one hundredth of FX volume. Many altcoins trade at volumes measured in single-digit millions, where a single whale order can move prices by double-digit percentages. Volatility and risk: FX volatility is largely driven by macroeconomic data and policy decisions. Crypto volatility is often directly caused by whale transactions: large accumulations off-exchange tighten supply; sudden sell-offs flood order books and trigger crashes. Traders routinely monitor whale wallet movements as a gauge of impending price swings. Market-making obligations: FX banks must quote two-way prices under regulatory frameworks. Crypto AMMs have no quote obligations; liquidity can vanish if token prices diverge from incentives, and CEX market-maker programs can be switched off if profitability erodes. Growing Crypto Caps and Global Exposure Over the past bull cycle, crypto’s total market capitalization surged from roughly \$1 trillion after the 2022 crash to more than \$3 trillion by late 2024. In a mature next bull rally—driven by factors like retail adoption, institutional investment via U.S. ETFs, and on-chain growth—analysts project total cap could reach \$5–10 trillion, perhaps even higher if adoption hits one billion users by 2030. In November 2024 alone, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs saw over \$3.5 billion of net inflows in a single week, signaling growing institutional interest. As crypto cap grows, profits accrue to whales who then have two options: reinvest in more crypto or deploy capital into traditional assets—equities, bonds, real estate, venture capital. When profit-maximizing whales move funds back into mainstream markets, they become new large suppliers in those markets. Their behavior—driven by short-term returns and unregulated by banking rules—can introduce episodes of excessive risk-taking, sudden mass reallocations, and cross-market contagion. A 30 percent price rally in crypto could translate into tens or hundreds of billions of dollars of buying power flowing into stocks or commodities, inflating asset bubbles. Conversely, a swift whale-led crypto sell-off could generate forced deleveraging in other markets. Risks and Recommendations 1. Opacity of supply: Unlike regulated banks, crypto whales and AMM pools operate pseudonymously. Policy makers should require greater transparency around large-wallet activity, potentially via on-chain reporting thresholds. 2. Market-making standards: Exchanges and AMM platforms could adopt minimum commitment obligations—analogous to FX banks’ two-way quoting—ensuring liquidity does not collapse when whale incentives shift. 3. Surveillance and circuit breakers: Crypto venues should implement robust guardrails—time-outs, price bands, and anomaly detection—to prevent cascading liquidations by large holders. 4. Cross-market safeguards: As crypto intersects with ETFs, pension funds, and corporate treasuries, regulators must recognize the systemic linkages and prepare macroprudential policies to mitigate spillovers. Conclusion Crypto markets will never mirror the deep, regulated interbank systems of FX. But as total crypto capitalization approaches and exceeds several trillion dollars, its profit-seeking whales stand poised to exert outsized influence not only on token prices but on the broader global economy. Recognizing the unique behaviors and incentives of crypto market makers and suppliers—and enacting tailored transparency, liquidity, and supervision measures—will be essential to contain the risk that tomorrow’s crypto bull run could unleash today’s market crisis.
Long
by mertenes3
Liquidity Pools Becoming Dark OceansThe foreign exchange market and the cryptocurrency market differ fundamentally in liquidity, participant makeup, and incentive structures. The FX market is characterized by deep liquidity and a broad spectrum of institutional participants, which together support global financial stability. By contrast, the cryptocurrency market—especially for new tokens and meme coins—is driven largely by profit-seeking agents without built-in mechanisms to ensure orderly trading. This disparity raises the prospect that, as crypto liquidity pools expand, opportunistic actors may exploit them in ways that threaten both crypto markets and the wider economy. The FX market is the largest financial market in the world, with average daily turnover of US \$7.5 trillion in April 2022—a 14 percent increase from three years earlier . This volume is supported by major banks, central banks, hedge funds, multinational corporations, and retail investors. In contrast, the cryptocurrency market’s average daily trading volume in Q1 2025 was US \$146 billion, and spot volume stood at about US \$51 billion per day . The much shallower depth in many crypto tokens makes them more vulnerable to price swings and manipulation by large orders or coordinated schemes. Major FX market makers such as JPMorgan, UBS, and Deutsche Bank operate under rigorous risk-management frameworks that promote orderly trading. Central banks and corporate hedgers further contribute to stability by smoothing excessive volatility and hedging currency exposures . These participants balance profit objectives with responsibilities toward market integrity. In crypto markets, however, large holders or “whales” typically focus on maximizing returns. Without formal obligations to provide liquidity, their trades can trigger extreme price movements, especially in tokens with limited float. Meme coins highlight these dynamics vividly. They often attract speculative investors through hype, driving rapid price rallies. Once insiders or developers decide to exit, they can execute “rug pulls,” dumping their holdings and crashing the token’s value. Chainalysis data shows that ERC-20 tokens involved in pump-and-dump schemes yielded average profits of about US \$2,672 per dump . In July 2023, an exploit on the Multichain bridge—akin to an insider-driven rug pull—resulted in over US \$125 million drained from DeFi liquidity pools . As crypto liquidity pools grow, they risk becoming “dark oceans” where opacity and profit-driven agents dominate. Unlike the FX market—where large trades prompt interbank controls and regulatory checks—crypto markets often lack coordinated circuit breakers. Malicious actors can engage in wash trading, spoofing, and layering with little fear of immediate enforcement, amplifying volatility and undermining confidence. If corporations and financial institutions increase their crypto exposure without adequate safeguards, these vulnerabilities could spill into the broader economy. Market instability might trigger margin calls, liquidity shortages, and balance-sheet disruptions. State or non-state actors could exploit crypto’s pseudonymous nature to influence currency flows, evade sanctions, or engineer financial shocks with real-world consequences.
by mertenes3
Gold’s consolidation phase remains solid EntryXAUUSD Gold new Forecast what will next Gold move? At the opening of the session, the U.S. dollar strengthened, putting downward pressure on Gold prices. The recent rise in the dollar is a key driver behind Gold’s consolidation phase. Despite this, investor interest in Gold remains solid due to its status as a safe-haven asset, especially amid ongoing geopolitical risks. Currently, Gold is approaching a key support zone around 3275, entering what appears to be a correction phase within a broader upward trend. This area also coincides with a liquidity zone, making it a critical level to watch. A breakdown below this level could trigger further downside, though it may also attract buyers looking to re-enter at lower prices. Investors should monitor this zone closely for signs of either a rebound or a confirmed breakdown, which could define the short-term direction for Gold. if you want to more info then read discerption and use Trade to Long-term.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MrMartin_11
BTC - Bottom soon?I recently published this idea privately because I was unable to post it publicly at the time. Now, I’d like to make it public. (Click the picture above to view the TA-Chart.) I'll be copying and pasting all the text from the original private idea here, along with the missing links I had prepared on April 2nd. The purpose of this chart is just to illustrate how my three target levels align with my Fibonacci retracement levels — which is also the reason I selected them. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We are currently in a complex situation. Markets have been experiencing a sell-off due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs. Additionally, Trump needs to refinance a massive sum of government debt ($7 trillion) over the next 10 years. To achieve this, he must lower the 10-year yield to reduce interest payments. One way to lower yields is by increasing government efficiency, thereby reducing borrowing needs and bond issuance, which in turn decreases yields. Another method is cutting interest rates, yet his tariff policies counteract this approach. This raises the question: does he want a recession? During a recession investors would flock toward bonds as a safe haven, ultimately pushing yields down. Bad Signs - Fed Atlanta GDPNow Gold adjusted at -0.8% - PMI below 50 - Major uncertainty due to enormous tariffs -> Michigan Consumer Sentiment (57) and Expectation (52.6) are at levels seen during the recession of 2022 - FED cannot cut interest rates due to persistently high inflation Are we heading towards a recession? People tend to overreact and overlook key indicators—one of which is liquidity. Examining the WTREGEN, we see a steep decline since mid-February, indicating that cash has been injected into the system. This is further supported by the rising RRPONT since mid-February. Additionally, the Fed has been slowing down QT, meaning the liquidity injection is not being offset as much. Additionally due to the tariffs countries like China could bring a liquidity stimilus into the markets to help their domestic markets. In summary, liquidity levels should be sufficient for at least a blow-off top. The reason markets have not rallied yet is due to uncertainty stemming from Trump’s tariffs. This is reflected in recession-level Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the Fear & Greed Index. A key bullish signal would be a falling RRPONT alongside a declining WTREGEN, as this would indicate that cash injections are flowing into risk assets, showing regained confidence. For confidence to return, we need a positive catalyst, such as an stop to QT, an increase of the balance sheet or an interest rate cut. However, the Fed is holding off on cuts due to high inflation and the tariffs. But this is where it gets interesting: According to Truflation, inflation has dropped significantly below the Fed’s 2% target since early March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data lags by a full month, so if Truflation’s data holds any truth, the upcoming inflation report on April 10 may reflect this decline. This could restore confidence and provide the Fed with room to give us a positive catalyst. Where is BTC headed? Compared to my expectations from early february ( ibb.co ) I expect BTC to first move into the $78K–73K range before rallying toward $115K instead of rallying now at 82k. This range aligns with my Fibonacci levels, and 73K was the high of March 2024. Additionally there is currently a fractality compared to the bottom of 2022 where the bottom now would be rougly at 75k. To reach $115K, BTC must first break the black downward trendline and the double-top neckline at around $95K. My blow-off top target is $115K, and if BTC holds above $100K, I will eye $145K and $185K as the next targets. Furthermore there could be a chance that the tariffs are just a negotiation tool since the tariffs do not make any sense % wise. However if Trump does intend to impose these tariffs at the said % and other countries stab back with their tariffs, then we might actually see a stagflation if the Fed does not intervene-or intervenes too late.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by QThanhT
2
TON | Long | Telegram-Backed Growth | (May 28, 2025)TON | Long | Telegram-Backed Growth + Open Interest Surge | (May 28, 2025) 1️⃣ Quick Recap: TON (The Open Network) is showing strong momentum following a major +20% price surge. With Telegram’s legacy, growing utility, and rising interest across spot and futures markets, this setup looks promising for continued upside. 🚀 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry Zone: $3.21 Stop Loss: $2.71 TP1: $3.66 TP2: $4.98 TP3: $6.00 TP4: $6.83 Partial Exits: Scaling out at each level based on momentum 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ What Makes TON Unique: – Originally built by Telegram and now maintained by the open-source TON Foundation – Aims to bring blockchain tech to the masses via Telegram integration – Focus on scalability, performance, and user-friendliness ✅ Recent surge followed news of the Telegram founder regaining travel freedom, potentially fueling future expansions ✅ Corporate partnerships (e.g., Athena Labs) support its growing ecosystem ✅ Competitive with names like Solana and Polygon (MATIC) ✅ Strong order flow data: – +5M in open interest – +2M spot buying – +7M in total order flow ✅ Shorts liquidated, which could create room for a reversal and continued move higher ❌ Invalidation if price closes below $2.71 — structure would be compromised, and reassessment needed 4️⃣ Follow-Up: Watching closely for how price behaves around $3.66. If momentum continues, will manage trade accordingly and provide an update as we approach higher targets. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Long
by Risk_Adj_Return
Market next move 🚨 Disruption: Bearish Outlook 🔻 1. Lower High Pattern Forming Price peaked earlier and has not made a new high. Instead, we’re seeing a flattening top. This could indicate distribution rather than continuation. A failure to break above ~$2,675 confirms a lower high. 🔻 2. Diverging Momentum The price has moved sideways with decreasing volume, suggesting momentum is fading. Buyers may be losing interest, setting up for a reversal or sharp dip. 🔻 3. Bearish Candlestick Rejection Recent candles show upper wicks, signaling selling pressure at highs. If this continues, the price may be forming a rounded top, not prepping for a breakout. 🔻 4. Potential Breakdown Zone If ETH falls below the ~$2,620 support region, it opens the door to $2,580 or even $2,540, especially ahead of upcoming economic events (marked on the chart) which may spook risk markets. 🔻 5. Liquidity Trap Risk This small bounce could be a liquidity trap—pulling in long traders before reversing sharply. This tactic often happens ahead of volatility spikes
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
1
Market next target 📊 Original Analysis Summary: Bias: Bullish reversal expected from the support box. Path: Minor pullback followed by a breakout toward a higher target. Indicators: Green arrow bounce, blue and yellow upward paths projecting continuation. --- 🚨 Disruption & Bearish Risks: 🔴 1. Support Zone is Weak The price dipped into the red support box and bounced, but barely made a strong recovery. A weak reaction from this zone could signal buyers are hesitant or exhausted. 🔴 2. Bear Flag Formation The current price action could be forming a bear flag pattern: a brief upward consolidation following a sharp drop. If confirmed, this would likely lead to another leg down, not up. 🔴 3. Volume Discrepancy The bounce lacks volume confirmation—note the relatively low buying bars after the large red selling volume spike. This suggests weak bullish conviction and potential for another sell-off.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals