DOGELooks like it's time for higher. BTC seems to be giving the green light for alts so long as it continues to close above 103/104. Would love to see a run of January and December monthly highs to get things started...
Beyond Technical Analysis
Trump, BOJ could be the ideal divergent theme for USD/JPY bearsWe've just seen the BOJ deliver a hawkish hike, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and cited rising wage pressures. This leaves the door open for further hikes this year. Meanwhile, Trump is now trying to strongarm the Fed and global central banks to lower interest rates immediately. Together, this is the ideal divergent theme currency traders crave. And the icing on the cake for USD/JPY bears would be if Trump begins his attack on a strong USD (which I think he will).
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
GBPUSD Sell ProjectionPrice bounced from a key level, weekly fair value gap. I observed a bearish break of structure and I'm confident the current bulls are sponsored by a retracement to sweep buyside liquidity before price expands lower to the sellside. Go short!
BTC1!Haven't seen a single "never again below 100,000" xeet on the timeline...
Personally I think they got the liq they were looking for already this week.
Quick dip at today's open to fill gap at 103,415. Gap filled now. Higher.
$RUNE is crashing. What is the consequence for Defi?This idea focuses more on DeFi and Web3 as a whole rather than the specific case of $RUNE.
What is happening to CRYPTOCAP:RUNE can happen to any other DeFi protocol, so it’s crucial to analyze how these protocols work, identify the risks, and explore how to mitigate them.
### How DeFi Protocols Work
CRYPTOCAP:RUNE , like many other protocols, is powered by smart contracts. These are small programs that execute tasks like lending, swapping, and other DeFi functions automatically and without human intervention. Investors love these protocols for their decentralized nature and trustless execution, enabled by blockchain technology.
CRYPTOCAP:RUNE gained popularity because its decentralized protocol allowed its price to be tied to factors like its total value locked (TVL) and fee earnings. The more people staked, provided liquidity, or used its lending services, the more CRYPTOCAP:RUNE ’s price increased. For instance, we saw CRYPTOCAP:RUNE rise from $3 to $12 last year as people used the protocol to loan CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH during their price surges.
### The Mechanism Behind CRYPTOCAP:RUNE
DeFi protocols like CRYPTOCAP:RUNE rely on the token itself as collateral. For example:
- When users send CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH to the protocol, it automatically buys and sells CRYPTOCAP:RUNE , which drives its price up.
- Conversely, when users withdraw CRYPTOCAP:BTC or CRYPTOCAP:ETH , the protocol sells CRYPTOCAP:RUNE to repay those users, which puts downward pressure on its price.
This mechanism can create vulnerabilities, as we’ve seen with $RUNE.
### What Went Wrong?
While all altcoins were losing value, CRYPTOCAP:BTC outperformed to the point where the total value of CRYPTOCAP:BTC being staked and loaned on the protocol exceeded the total value of $RUNE. In simple terms, if everyone requested their CRYPTOCAP:BTC and CRYPTOCAP:ETH back, the protocol would not have enough CRYPTOCAP:RUNE to sell and repay them. This is known as **insolvency**.
Last year, when authorities paused Rune Swap for a week to investigate criminal activity, CRYPTOCAP:RUNE ’s price plummeted from $2.2 to $1.3 as smart contracts automatically compensated for reduced earnings and people redeemed their staked assets, forcing the protocol to sell $RUNE.
### The Catastrophic Validator Decision
This month, with the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC surging, some inverstors decided to cash out from CRYPTOCAP:RUNE and that is when they realized that the price of CRYPTOCAP:RUNE was so underperforming CRYPTOCAP:BTC that the protocol might be insolvent. They createed a "bank run" and an avalanche of investors lost their trust and asked their coins back.
To prevent a complete collapse, validators—who are essential for running the blockchain—used a private key to manually stop the protocol. This halted the smart contracts from continuing to sell $RUNE. However, this move backfired.
Observers saw the protocol being manually interfered with, highlighting its insolvency and raising serious concerns. This decision led to even more fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). It became clear that DeFi’s lack of flexibility and inability to adapt to emergencies can create destructive outcomes.
### Broader Implications for DeFi Protocols
This exposes a significant vulnerability in all DeFi protocols. Many rely on their own coin as collateral, but if CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues to rise in value and users decide to withdraw their CRYPTOCAP:BTC , the protocols could face the same insolvency issue. In some cases, the amount required to repay users may exceed the protocol’s total collateral—or even the market cap of the altcoin itself.
### The Potential Domino Effect
If platforms like Uniswap, PancakeSwap, Hyperliquid, and others fail to address this issue, we could see a domino effect:
- Investors may withdraw their funds from DeFi protocols, leading to a collapse of the entire DeFi ecosystem.
- Such an event would have dire consequences for the broader altcoin market.
### The Solution
If CRYPTOCAP:BTC continues its bull run alone, DeFi platforms may need to reconsider their reliance on CRYPTOCAP:BTC and stop lending/staking and swapping to $BTC. Failure to adapt could render many protocols insolvent, triggering unprecedented FUD and potentially causing the crypto market to crash.
### Conclusion
The current situation with CRYPTOCAP:RUNE is a cautionary tale for the entire DeFi industry. Without proactive measures, the very mechanisms that make DeFi appealing—decentralization and automation—could become its greatest weaknesses.
BEARISH DOGE - COULD THIS BE THE START OF A FLUSH DOWN? SIT DOGEWe've noticed an interesting pattern on Doge.
Normally with news and hype, DOGE would/should have 2x-7x by now with Elon being close to the US regulators. It would seem clear to me that after today's TSLA trading session, and trump news, and the level that DOGE is currently at, we firmly believe a massive ~ -33% drop is coming for DOGE while the next few days, bearish tilt increases and fear settles in.
$TOSHI/USDT UpdateThe price has broken out of the red resistance zone and has reached the first target in the green zone.
🎯 Next Target: Blue line level
$ELON/USDT AnalysisThe price is testing the resistance zone.
🎯 Targets if breakout occurs:
1️⃣ First Target: Green line
2️⃣ Second Target: Blue line
$XCN/USDT AnalysisThe price has arrived at the resistance zone and could potentially get rejected.
💡 Potential Re-entry: If the price pulls back to the support level in the green zone, it could offer a good entry opportunity.
$AL/USDT Analysis The price is testing the red resistance zone.
🎯 Targets if breakout occurs:
1️⃣ First Target: Green line
2️⃣ Second Target: Blue line
$DAG/USDT AnalysisAfter breaking out of resistance and reaching the first target, the price is now pulling back to the new support level in green.
🎯 Potential Bouncing Entry:
First Target: Green line
Second Target: Blue line
SELL CHFJPY - JPY Strength to return??Trader Tom, a technical analyst with over 16 years’ experience, explains his trade idea using price action and a top down approach. This is one of many trades so if you would like to see more then please follow us and hit the boost button.
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USDMXN Long Trade Setup – Targeting 20.37257Description:
Expecting upward movement on USDMXN with a target set at 20.37257. This trade has a 12-hour expiration, with a deadline set for Fri, Jan 24, 08:30 UTC.
🔍 Trade Details:
Entry: 20.32155
Target: 20.37257
Time Horizon: 12 hours
No Stop Loss: Expiration-based trade.
Let's watch the price action and aim for the target. 📊
nifty 50 index it is on most imp level 23205 nifty 50 index it is on most imp level 23205 below this level we can see down side move till the target 22500 in coming days we can see.
daily candle need to hold below 23205 only then only we can go for down side target
BTC Rango o caida Within the next 7 days, a range or fall projection is expected for the price of BTC.
NZDCHF Short Trade Setup – Targeting 0.51510Currently observing potential downward movement on NZDCHF, aiming for the key target level at 0.51510. The trade is time-sensitive and is set to expire within 12 hours, by Fri, Jan 24, 06:15 UTC. Market behavior indicates a possible decline towards the target zone.
🔍 Key Details:
Entry: 0.51612
Target: 0.51510
Time Horizon: 12 hours
No Stop Loss: Time-based strategy.
Let's monitor the market closely and see how it develops. 📊
NBIS Nebius Group Among My Top 10 Picks for 2025 | Price TargetNebius Group N.V. (NBIS) presents a compelling bullish case for a potential doubling of its stock price by the end of 2025, driven by several fundamental factors that highlight its growth trajectory within the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure market.
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has made a significant investment in Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS), contributing to a $700 million funding round aimed at expanding Nebius's AI infrastructure capabilities. This investment aligns with NVIDIA's strategic focus on enhancing its presence in the rapidly growing AI market.
Explosive Revenue Growth:
Nebius Group has demonstrated remarkable revenue growth, with Q3 2024 revenues reaching $43.3 million, representing a 1.7-fold increase compared to the previous quarter and a staggering 766% year-over-year increase. This surge is primarily driven by the company's core AI infrastructure business, which grew 2.7 times quarter-over-quarter and 6.5 times year-over-year. Analysts expect this momentum to continue, projecting annual revenues of approximately $731.96 million for 2025, reflecting a robust demand for AI-centric services and solutions.
Strategic Investments in AI Infrastructure:
The company is heavily investing in expanding its GPU cluster capabilities and data center capacity, with plans to allocate over $1 billion towards these initiatives. This strategic focus on enhancing AI infrastructure positions Nebius to capture significant market share as the global demand for AI technologies continues to rise. The annualized run-rate for its cloud revenue has already surpassed $120 million, indicating strong customer adoption and a growing client base that includes Fortune 500 companies.
Strong Market Position and Competitive Advantage:
Nebius Group is uniquely positioned within the AI infrastructure landscape, specializing in full-stack solutions that cater to developers and enterprises looking to leverage AI technologies. As businesses increasingly prioritize AI integration into their operations, Nebius's comprehensive offerings make it an attractive partner for organizations seeking to enhance their technological capabilities. The company’s ability to provide scalable solutions will be crucial as the demand for AI services expands.
Healthy Financials and Cash Reserves:
As of September 30, 2024, Nebius reported cash and cash equivalents totaling approximately $2.29 billion, providing a solid financial foundation to support its growth initiatives without excessive reliance on debt. This strong liquidity position allows Nebius to invest aggressively in technology and infrastructure while maintaining operational flexibility 14. Additionally, with gross margins projected to remain robust at around 55% in 2025, the company is well-positioned to improve profitability as revenues grow.
DAL Delta Air Lines Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on DAL:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DAL Delta Air Lines prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $3.80.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GBX The Greenbrier Companies Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GBX The Greenbrier Companies prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 65usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-3-21,
for a premium of approximately $3.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
JPM JPMorgan Chase Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought JPM before the breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JPM JPMorgan Chase prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 245usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $5.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
DIA Technical Analysis and GEX Option Trading InsightsTechnical Analysis for Trading
Current Price Action:
* DIA is in a strong uptrend, maintaining higher highs and higher lows.
* It is approaching significant resistance at $445, with support established near $430 and $426.
Trend Lines:
* Upward momentum persists, supported by a rising trend line. This provides a bullish bias until broken.
Indicators:
* MACD: Positive momentum is weakening, signaling a potential cooldown but remains in bullish territory.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought conditions indicate a possible short-term retracement or consolidation.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance: $445 (Immediate), $447.
* Support: $430 (Trend-line support), $426.
Trade Scenarios:
* Bullish: If DIA breaks above $445 with strong volume, a move toward $447–$450 could materialize.
* Entry: Above $445.
* Target: $447–$450.
* Stop-loss: Below $442.
* Bearish: If rejection occurs at $445, expect a pullback to $430 or lower.
* Entry: Below $440.
* Target: $430–$426.
* Stop-loss: Above $443.
Gamma Exposure (GEX) for Option Trading
* Highest Call Wall: $445 (Significant resistance zone, call sellers may cap gains beyond this level).
* Highest Put Wall: $419 (Support area where put sellers provide support).
* Key Gamma Levels:
* Positive GEX: Above $445 supports bullish continuation.
* Negative GEX: Below $430 increases volatility and bearish pressure.
IV and Option Flow:
* IV Rank (IVR): 21.8 (Low IV, suitable for long option strategies like debit spreads or straight calls).
* Call/Put Flow: Calls dominate at 19.3%, indicating bullish sentiment.
Options Trade Ideas:
1. Bullish: Buy 445 Calls, expiring within the next two weeks, targeting a move above $445 toward $450.
* Entry: $445 Calls at $2.50–$3.00.
* Target Exit: $447–$450.
* Stop Loss: If DIA drops below $442.
2. Bearish: If rejection at $445, consider 440 Puts, targeting a drop to $430.
* Entry: $440 Puts at $2.00–$2.50.
* Target Exit: $430.
* Stop Loss: Above $443.
Outlook Summary:
* Bullish bias remains intact, but short-term overbought conditions suggest a potential pullback.
* Watch for clear price action signals near key levels at $445 and $430 to confirm entry and exit strategies.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
TFC Truist Financial Corporation Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t sold TFC before the regional banks selloff:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of TFC Truist Financial Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 40usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $3.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
OZK Bank OZK Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold OZK before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of OZK Bank OZK prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 42.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-2-21,
for a premium of approximately $3.20.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
