Beyond Technical Analysis
Stock Market Dives into Correction? It Happens—Here's What to DoYou wake up, check your portfolio, and see a sea of red. The market’s down, your stocks are taking a nosedive, and CNBC is running apocalyptic headlines about an impending crash. Sounds familiar?
It’s maybe because we’re in (or super close to) a correction right now — the S&P 500 SP:SPX was down 10% from its record high two weeks ago and a lot of people are unsure what to do.
The truth of the matter is, stock market corrections are routine—not as often as the meeting that should’ve been an email, but also not as rare as a winning trade in the Japanese yen ( widow maker is real, yo ).
And, most importantly, they’re usually not as catastrophic as they feel in the moment.
So, before you hit the panic button (or worse, start revenge trading to “win it all back”), let’s talk about what’s shaking the market right now and how to navigate corrections like a pro.
🤔 First Things First: What’s a Correction?
A stock market correction is a drop of 10% or more from a recent high. It’s not a crash, it’s not the end of capitalism, and it’s definitely not a sign that you should liquidate your entire portfolio and move to a remote cabin in the woods.
Corrections happen regularly, typically once every year or two. They’re a natural part of market cycles, shaking out excessive speculation and resetting valuations to more reasonable levels.
For the record, a drop of 20% is considered a bear market.
🤝 Why the Market’s Getting Jittery
Markets don’t move in straight lines, and sometimes they hit turbulence. Lately, two big themes have been dominating headlines:
Trump’s Hard-Line Tariffs Hit Hard (And Markets Are Nervous About It)
If there’s anything Trump knows how to do is say things online or on-site and move markets. And his hostile and straight up combatant approach to handling international relations has sent traders scrambling to offload risk.
With hiked tariffs on China, Europe, and Mexico and Canada, businesses are bracing for severe supply chain disruptions, higher costs, and tighter margins. When tariffs go up, corporate earnings tend to go down—and the market doesn’t like that math.
Inflation Just Won’t Quit
The Federal Reserve spent most of the last two years trying to tame inflation, and just when it seemed like things were cooling off, it’s creeping back up. The latest readout of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report showed prices ticked up more than expected at 2.8% in February.
Higher inflation means the Fed might keep interest rates elevated for longer than expected, making borrowing more expensive and slowing down growth. Every new inflation release has investors guessing: Will the Fed cut rates, hold steady, or—worst case—hike again?
Between trade wars and stubborn inflation, uncertainty is running high, and that dynamics breeds volatility. But a correction doesn’t mean the market is broken—it just means sentiment has shifted.
⚠️ How NOT to React (aka: Rookie Mistakes to Avoid)
When corrections hit, bad decision-making is at an all-time high. Here’s what not to do:
Panic selling – Selling at the bottom is a classic rookie move. If you weren’t planning to sell at the highs, why dump everything when it’s down?
Trying to time the exact bottom – Good luck. Nobody, not even Warren Buffett, can catch the bottom (not that he’s trying). If you’re waiting for the “perfect” dip, you’ll likely miss the rebound.
Going all-in on one asset – Thinking of putting everything into one stock or crypto because it’s “cheap” now? Please don’t. Diversification exists for a reason .
Getting glued to financial news – Watching every market update during a correction is like doom-scrolling Google after a mild headache—you’ll only freak yourself out more.
Now that we’ve covered what not to do, let’s focus on the smart plays.
💪 So, What Should You Do?
If you want to come out of a correction with your sanity (and portfolio) intact, here’s your game plan:
1️⃣ Zoom Out—Corrections Are Temporary
The market moves in cycles, and corrections are just part of the game. Historically, corrections last a few months, while bull markets last years. If you’re investing for the long term, a correction is a blip on the chart, not an extinction event.
2️⃣ Review Your Portfolio Like a Hedge Fund Manager
Corrections are a great excuse to audit your holdings. Ask yourself:
Is this stock/ETF/index still worth holding?
Has anything fundamentally changed, or is this just temporary market noise?
Do I have too much exposure to one sector?
Think of it as spring cleaning for your investments. It's also an opportunity to make some good use of the handy Stock Screener or Stock Heatmap to spot the best (and worst) performers. If something was a FOMO buy and doesn’t belong in your portfolio, consider trimming it.
3️⃣ Buy Selectively, Not Blindly
Corrections create opportunities, but that doesn’t mean you should just throw money at every stock that’s down. Some companies deserve their declines ( looking at you, Nikola )—others are just collateral damage in a broader selloff.
Look for quality companies with strong earnings, manageable debt, and real growth potential. If they were solid before the correction, they’ll likely recover faster than the overhyped names.
Example: Remember when Amazon stock NASDAQ:AMZN tanked 90% in 2000, the dot-com bubble? No, because you were too busy being 2 years old instead of loading up on Jeff Bezos’s dream. And look where the guy’s now.
4️⃣ Do Some Good Old DCA
Instead of dumping all your cash into the market at once, use dollar-cost averaging (DCA). Buying in small increments at regular intervals helps you avoid the stress of trying to time the bottom. If prices drop further, you can buy more at an even better price.
5️⃣ Keep Emotions in Check
Corrections test your patience and discipline. The best investors don’t let fear dictate their strategy. If you’re getting emotional about your trades, step away from the screen and take a breath. The market will be there when you come back.
👍 The Market Always Bounces Back—Eventually
Every correction feels like the worst one while it’s happening. But let’s look at history:
The S&P 500 has faced 30+ corrections since 1950. It survived them all.
The average correction lasts four months before a recovery begins.
After a correction, markets typically rally higher within a year.
Unless you believe the global economy is permanently broken (hint: not yet, at least), every major downturn has eventually turned into a new bull run.
🦸♂ Final Thought: Be the Hero, Not the Victim
Market corrections separate the professionals from the wannabes. The people who panic and sell at the bottom? They usually regret it. The ones who keep a level head, stick to their strategy, and take advantage of good opportunities? They come out stronger.
And finally, if you need to take away one thing it’s this: Corrections aren’t the enemy. They’re the price of admission for long-term gains.
👉 Let’s hear it from you!
How do you handle corrections, what’s your strategy when the market is in a downturn and what’s in your portfolio then? Share your experience in the comment section!
EURGBP Discretionary Analysis: Dive Time, No Life Jacket NeededIt’s dive time, no life jacket needed, just that instinct telling me it’s going down.
You know that feeling when you’re about to jump in, but you’ve got no backup? That’s the vibe here.
I’m calling for a deep dive, and I’m riding it all the way. If I’m right, I’ll be making a splash with some profits. If not, I’ll just float back up and try again.
Just my opinion, not financial advice.
"Gold (XAU/USD) Resistance & Support Analysis"This chart represents an analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) price action, focusing on key resistance and support levels. The resistance zone is identified at approximately 3,136.62, where price action has previously struggled to break higher. Meanwhile, the support zone is marked around 3,100.95, acting as a potential area where buyers may step in to prevent further declines.
The chart suggests a potential rejection at the resistance level, leading to a price decline toward the support zone. The projected movement involves price testing the resistance level, forming a possible consolidation or double-top pattern before initiating a downward trend. This scenario aligns with a bearish outlook, where traders may seek confirmation signals, such as bearish candlestick patterns or momentum indicators, before considering short positions.
However, if price action breaks above the resistance level with strong momentum, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, potentially signaling a continuation of the bullish trend. Traders should apply proper risk management strategies, including stop-loss placement above resistance, to mitigate potential losses.
Overall, this technical setup provides a structured approach to analyzing gold price movements, offering traders insights into possible market behavior based on historical price action.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 2nd April 2024)Bias: No Bias
USD News(Red Folder):
-ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Analysis:
-Strong rejection from ATH 3148
-Looking for bearish structure on lower timefram
-Potential SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3140
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Very Interesting XRPUSDT Update: Did You Know...This is very interesting for many reasons.
How are you doing my friend in the law?
It's been a while, almost a month since we last spoke.
It is truly my pleasure to write again for you and I hope that you find this information useful in someway if not entertaining.
Whatever you do, you are awesome and you are great.
Life is the best thing the Universe has to offer and you are alive... Let's get to the chart.
Cryptocurrency Market About To Boom! —XRPUSDT
This is an XRPUSDT update on the daily (24-Hours per candle) timeframe.
Why interesting? Because I am still using the same chart I used back in February and XRPUSDT continues to trade above the 3-February low point. It is hardly necessary to highlight this on the chart but, I've done it for your convenience.
So here is the thing, I will recap because it's been a while. As long as XRPUSDT trades daily, weekly, etc., above $1.70, market conditions are strongly bullish. The longer it trades above this level the better the situation for buyers. The longer the consolidation phase, the stronger the bullish wave that follows.
Even with the upswing in January XRPUSDT has been sideways since late 2024.
We can say since December 2024 so sideways for four months. How much longer will it stay sideways?
Not much longer. Worst case scenario it goes into consolidation for another 60-90 days. That's the worst case.
Normal scenario would be 30-45 days before a major bullish impulse.
Best and most likely scenario is that the next bullish wave will start within 30 days. We are in-between the last two, the first one is out of the question for now.
Caution: If the market drops, tests and pierces $1.70 the bullish bias remains. In this type of scenario, we look at the weekly and monthly timeframes.
There was a low in early February and higher-low mid-March.
On a short-term basis, trading above $1.89, the 11-March daily low, is considered bullish. (Which means that the inverse would be considered bearish.)
There are no indications or signals coming from the chart pointing towards a new bearish-trend. None. The market has been sideways after a very strong period of growth. Current action is the consolidation of the previous move. When a bullish phase ends, we tend to see a strong decline right afterward, this happens with Crypto. When a bullish move makes a pause, we see sideways and this is what we have here. Actually, this chart is a strong one but still neutral. Neutral is the accumulation period for whales whom need months to load up. Since they purchase billions worth of Crypto, it takes time to plan and to move this money around and that's why it takes so long between each phase.
I am tracking whale alerts all of the time. Most of the money is in place. After the money exchanges hands and is positioned, there is always a small pause before the action starts. Money always moves before the action and never within the action. So the money moves, pause and then lots of price movements. While prices are moving, no big transactions are taking place, these are taking care of beforehand.
Consider the fact that there are hundreds of exchanges and everything moves simultaneously and at the same time. The only way this is possible is through long-term coordination and group planning.
What to expect?
Expect the market to heat up slowly. And after a slow rise and heating up then the bullish impulse and bull-run. It will be a long process and it will develop in many months.
If you are reading this now timing is great.
Spot traders can continue to buy and hold.
For leveraged traders, I have to look at some more charts before giving any suggestions. I will feel more comfortable when I read at least 100 charts.
Market conditions are changing and improving and it will do so long-term, but we still have one more month before May when the force will be in our favor, we are still in the sideways period, accumulation/consolidation. Boring? No! Time to study and prepare. The market gives us time to be at our best before the really good action starts and this is only good, don't you agree?
A bear-market means lower lows and lower highs long-term.
2025 is a bull-market year, likely to be the strongest ever. There is a huge difference. It is like calling night when it is day. It is like saying the sun is about to go up when the sky is ready to rain.
We are about to a see and experience a rain of cash flowing into the Cryptocurrency market and this will in turn send everything up. There is no bear market, we had a correction after a major advance and this is normal. After the correction is over we get consolidation, after consolidation prices will grow. Mark my word.
I appreciate you now and always.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher on the daily chart. Although a sell signal briefly appeared in the previous session, the MACD failed to form a bearish crossover with the signal line, instead finding support and rebounding. The index strongly bounced from its low, reaching the 5-day moving average (MA) before closing with an upper wick.
Since the MACD is supporting the signal line and potentially resuming an upward trend, the key level to watch is whether the price can break through the strong resistance at 19,625–19,675. As long as the MACD does not confirm a bearish crossover, it is advisable to trade within the range.
On the 240-minute chart, the index rebounded from the bottom while generating a buy signal. However, with strong resistance around 19,675, if the price pulls back once more, it could either form a double bottom or resume a strong upward move from a single-bottom structure.
Although the MACD has crossed above the signal line (golden cross) on the 240-minute chart, it is still far from the zero line, suggesting that further pullbacks may occur after additional gains. It is important to avoid chasing the price and instead focus on buying dips at key support levels while maintaining a range-trading approach.
Crude Oil
Oil closed flat, facing resistance at $72. On the daily chart, the price broke above the 240-day MA and is now testing resistance from a previous supply zone. It is likely to consolidate within a range while pulling up the short-term moving averages.
The daily MACD has moved above the zero line, lifting the signal line as well. If the price remains in a range-bound consolidation, the signal line will eventually rise above the zero line, further supporting a bullish structure.
Key upcoming events include today’s oil inventory report and tomorrow’s OPEC meeting, which could act as catalysts for either a continuation of the rally or a pullback. Since there is still a gap between the 3-day and 5-day MAs, range trading remains the best approach.
On the 240-minute chart, strong buying momentum continues, but given the heavy supply at previous resistance levels, a period of sideways movement or a pullback is likely.
If a bearish crossover occurs on the 240-minute chart, oil could drop below $70. For now, monitor whether the uptrend can hold, and if it does, consider trading within the range while managing downside risks.
Gold
Gold closed lower after an overshoot to the upside. On the daily chart, the price was in an overextended high position, with a significant gap from the 3-day and 5-day MAs. After a brief rally, selling pressure emerged, leading to a bearish close.
Since gold has yet to properly test the 5-day MA, a pullback to this level remains a possibility. However, the daily MACD is still trending upward, and liquidity remains strong, increasing the likelihood of a one-way rally unless the 10-day MA is broken. Short positions should be approached with caution.
On the 240-minute chart, a bearish crossover has occurred, leading to a pullback from the high. However, since the uptrend remains intact, even if the MACD crosses below the signal line, the fact that it is still above the zero line suggests a potential rebound.
The best strategy is to focus on buying dips at key support levels, as the market is likely to consolidate before resuming a trend move. Be cautious when trading within a range-bound market.
With Friday’s U.S. employment report approaching, market volatility remains elevated. Trump’s tariff policies are increasing concerns about inflation and a potential economic slowdown. The interpretation of upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining market direction.
Risk management remains essential, so trade cautiously and stay prepared.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
If you like my analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
For additional strategies for today, check out my profile. Thank you!
LTR longs potential-IS price retesting demand zone in the future? price allowing good r/r ratio LTF analysis could be seen as exhausted sellers.
-remember its only revisiting zone ATM
-confirmed buyers will show bullish PA if its ready or NOT we still need multiple things down here to confluence before entering in ..
-zones are only zones when there's reactions
- price structure has to play out firstly
-stay unbias with no emotions.
My NEUTRAL status until PA presents THEN TURNING shlong.
SPY Shows Strong BOS, But Faces Gamma Resistance at $563 (?)Market Structure (1H – SMC View):
* Price rebounded after BOS at ~$552 and has since broken multiple minor structure levels to the upside.
* Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirm bullish shift, with recent CHoCH validating demand zone below $550.
* Price is consolidating near a supply zone around $561–$563 which acted as a prior CHoCH zone.
Key Price Zones:
* Demand Zone (Support): $546–$552
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $561–$563 (where price currently sits)
* Macro Support: $550 = PUT wall + gamma support
* Micro Resistance: $563 = strong GEX call resistance
Trendlines + Price Action:
* Clean stair-step move up into resistance.
* Price approaching apex of recent flag-like structure; breakout confirmation needed.
* Watch for either rejection at this gamma wall ($563) or breakout continuation above.
Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish crossover still intact but showing slight flattening—watch for histogram weakness.
* Stoch RSI: Near overbought, curling—possible minor pullback or consolidation.
* 9 EMA > 21 EMA: Trend remains bullish for now.
Options Sentiment & GEX (from GEX Chart):
* IVR: 41.8 — moderately elevated, shows short-term volatility interest.
* IVx Avg: 25.4 — indicating steady option pricing.
* Put/Call Ratio: 84.5% puts — extremely defensive positioning in options market.
* GEX: 🚦Red, Yellow, Green — Neutral-to-bearish gamma zone.
* Major GEX Levels:
* Resistance / Gamma Wall: $563 – Highest positive NETGEX (major level to watch).
* Support / Gamma Cushion: $550–$555 – Includes PUT wall and GEX support.
Scenarios to Watch:
🟢 Bullish Case:
* Break & hold above $563 → potential rally toward $568+
* Confirmation of continued structure shift and gamma squeeze likely if open interest reshuffles upward.
🔴 Bearish Case:
* Rejection at $563 + failure to hold $560 → fast pullback to $555 or test of $550 demand zone.
* Watch for bearish divergence in MACD or failure to maintain EMA trend alignment.
Trade Ideas (Not Financial Advice):
* Scalp Long: If price confirms breakout above $563 with volume, target $568+
* Put Credit Spread or Long Calls: If holding above $560 with strong tape.
* Fade Setup: If SPY rejects $563 with bearish engulfing or momentum stalling, consider short to $555–$550.
🧠 Final Thoughts: SPY is at a decision point. Gamma wall at $563 could act as a ceiling unless there’s sufficient momentum + institutional call flow to drive a breakout. FOMC or macro catalysts could also be trigger points. Stay nimble.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
QQQ is Breaking the Trendline – Could the Tech Rally be started?Market Structure & Price Action:
QQQ has broken out of a descending channel and printed a CHoCH to the upside around $471, shifting structure into a bullish stance. The breakout follows a clean reversal from the red demand zone near $463, suggesting institutional interest around that area. Price is now consolidating near $473.5–$474 after a strong 3-bar rally and retest of prior highs.
Supply & Demand Zones:
* Demand Zone (Support): $463–$465
* Supply Zone (Resistance): $495–$497 (unmitigated upper green zone)
Support & Resistance Levels:
* Immediate Resistance: $474 (minor psychological level, aligning with trendline retest zone)
* Major Resistance: $495–$497 (overhead supply)
* Support Levels: $470 > $465 > $463
Indicators:
* MACD: Still bullish, but showing some slowing momentum – histogram flattening.
* Stoch RSI: In overbought territory – may suggest short-term consolidation or pullback.
* Volume: Rising on the breakout, confirming strength.
Options GEX + Sentiment Analysis:
* Gamma Walls:
* CALL Wall (Resistant): $472 (64.62%) – Price is currently sitting above this wall.
* Next Gamma Cluster: $474–$476 (GEX9/GEX10) – Potential short-term magnet.
* PUT Wall Support:
* $465–$463 zone aligning with strong GEX put support and HVL (0DTE) – strong defense.
* IV Rank (IVR): 40.6
* Implied Volatility vs Average (IVx avg): IV is above avg at 3.27%
* Sentiment: PUTS 52.6% | GEX shows 🟢🟢🟢🟡 (Bullish leaning but hedged)
Trade Scenarios:
* Bullish Scenario:
* If QQQ holds above $472 and sustains above the GEX CALL Wall, we may see a move toward $476–$480.
* A breakout above $480 could open the door for a test of the $495–$497 upper supply zone.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Rejection at $474 and failure to hold $470 could push price back toward the $465–$463 demand zone.
* Breakdown below $463 would invalidate the bullish thesis in the short term.
Conclusion:
QQQ is showing strength after breaking the descending structure, and options positioning supports a slow grind higher unless it gets rejected at $474. Watch for consolidation or a clean breakout to confirm momentum continuation. Bulls want to defend $470 on any pullback.
PLTR Building Momentum Inside a Wedge — Breakout Imminent? 🔥
1. Market Structure & Price Action
PLTR is compressing inside a descending wedge while forming a small CHoCH near $85, attempting to flip structure.
We saw a BOS from the $80 region, pushing toward the $85 liquidity zone. Price is consolidating under a key resistance band around $86, just below the GEX HVL level.
2. SMC & Supply/Demand Zones
* Demand Zone: $78–$80 range acted as a BOS origin with high buyer reaction.
* Supply Zone: $85–$86 now tested multiple times.
* Downward trendline resistance is holding; a break above could invite a run toward the $90 zone.
3. Indicators Analysis
* MACD: Slightly bullish crossover, histogram fading — suggesting early momentum but caution.
* Stoch RSI: Rebounding from oversold, trending upward toward 80 — suggests bullish follow-through if resistance breaks.
4. Options Sentiment & GEX
* GEX Chart shows a thick CALL Resistance / Gamma Wall at $90, aligned with the second call wall (29.31%).
* HVL at $86: Major short-term magnet — breakout above could initiate a gamma squeeze.
* Put support: Strongest level sits at $80, where downside is well-hedged.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 72.4
* IVx Avg: 85.2
* Call$: 26.1%
* GEX Sentiment: 🟢🟢🔴 — still slightly conflicted, but flipping green.
5. Bullish Scenario 🟢
* Entry: Break and retest of $86 with volume
* Target 1: $90 (Gamma Wall)
* Target 2: $93.5–$95
* Stop-loss: Below $83
6. Bearish Scenario 🔴
* Entry: Rejection from $86 + drop under $83
* Target 1: $80
* Target 2: $78–$77 PUT wall
* Stop-loss: Above $86.5
Conclusion
PLTR is sitting at a critical inflection point. Compression inside a wedge, early CHoCH + GEX alignment suggests breakout potential, but the $86 HVL must be cleared first. Watch volume and MACD confirmation for the next move.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
WMT Approaching Key Resistance! Will It Break Above $90?🧠 Price Action & Market Structure:
WMT has made a powerful push off the $84 demand zone after forming a CHoCH reversal and strong impulsive candles. The 1-hour chart shows a clean breakout from the falling wedge structure, confirming bullish intent. Price is consolidating inside a smaller green SMC supply zone just under $89. Watch closely for either a clean break above $89.11 or rejection from this level.
🔍 Key Support and Resistance:
* Immediate Resistance: $89.11 (local high)
* Next Resistance: $90.00 psychological + Gamma wall
* Support 1: $87.00
* Major Demand Zone: $84.00–$85.00
📈 Indicator Insights:
* MACD is neutral after prior bullish momentum.
* Stoch RSI shows slight cooling, nearing midrange after previously being overbought.
* EMAs are stacked bullishly with 9 EMA above 21 EMA – trend remains intact.
📊 GEX (Options Sentiment) Breakdown:
* Highest Positive GEX: $90.00 — CALL Resistance / Gamma Wall
* Highest Negative GEX: $91.00 — PUT Wall
* Options Flow Sentiment:
* IVR: 58
* IVx avg: 29.5
* GEX: 🟢🟢🟢 (very bullish)
* Put/Call $ Flow: Only 0.2% in PUTs — very bullish
📌 Trade Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout:
* Entry above $89.20
* Target: $90.50 → $93
* Stop Loss: Below $88.25
Rejection Play (Fade Gamma Wall):
* Short from $89.00–$90.00 if candles weaken
* Target: $87
* Stop Loss: Above $90.50
🔮 Outlook:
WMT is showing strength and positive sentiment in the options chain. As long as $87 holds, the bias remains bullish. Break and close above $90 could lead to gamma squeezing toward $92–$93.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
CELH Building a Base Before Next Move? CELH Building a Base Before Next Move? Key Gamma & SMC Zones in Play
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
CELH has printed two Break of Structure (BOS) signals after reclaiming demand near $32.50. After the CHoCH on March 28, price flipped bullish with a strong impulse, then consolidated near the $36–$37 zone, forming a new BOS.
Price is currently trading inside a newly defined bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) and liquidity sweep zone from $35.80–$36.50. Support is building at the $35 level, and a higher low has been maintained after retesting the previous BOS origin.
2. Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
* CHoCH: Flipped bullish on March 28 after prolonged compression.
* BOS x2: Signals were clean near the $33 and $36 pivots — continuation possible if $36.50 breaks.
* Liquidity Zones:
* Demand block near $34.50–$33.50
* Supply/FVG region: $36–$37.50
* Trendline Support: Holding higher lows on the short-term channel.
3. Indicators (1H Chart):
* MACD: Bearish crossover but flattening — potential for reversal.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold and beginning to curve up, signaling a possible bullish push.
* 9/21 EMA: Slightly squeezed, with price hovering just above both — waiting for confirmation breakout.
4. Options GEX Analysis:
* Gamma Walls:
* $36: High open interest wall (GEX resistance)
* $40: Strongest positive GEX zone — price magnet if bulls break $36.50
* Put Support Walls:
* $35 & $34.50: Layered support from -9% to -25.7% Put GEX levels
* HVL at $36 (04/04 expiry): Key battle zone
Sentiment & Flow:
* IVR: 27.1
* IVx Avg: 68.5
* CALLs Flow: 48.4% (highly bullish skew)
* GEX Sentiment: 🔴🟢🟢 (Neutral–Bullish)
* Time to Expiry: 4h 16m (likely driving gamma pinning around $36)
5. Trade Scenarios:
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
* Break and hold above $36.50 confirms momentum toward $38–$40
* Entry: $36.20+
* Stop Loss: $35.20
* Target 1: $38
* Target 2: $40 (gamma wall)
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
* Break below $35 support triggers downside to retest demand at $34.50
* Entry: $34.90
* Stop Loss: $36.10
* Target: $33.50–$33
Final Thoughts:
CELH is coiling within a tight zone between strong supply and demand. If bulls can hold $35 and break the $36.50 gamma wall, the price has room to magnet toward $38–$40. A break below $34.50 opens the downside path back to $33. Watch volume around $36 and flows as expiry nears.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
MSTR Ready for Breakout or Bull Trap? Here’s the Key Levels.Market Structure & Price Action
MSTR has recently formed multiple Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) signals, suggesting a power struggle between bulls and bears. The chart currently shows price climbing into a descending trendline and pressing right up against key resistance near the $307 zone after rejecting the CHoCH zone from below.
* BOS confirms bullish intent, but it's climbing within a falling wedge, creating a potential breakout setup.
* Support held strong at $272 and $281, forming a higher low structure with growing bullish momentum.
Trendlines
* The falling wedge pattern is a bullish reversal pattern. Price is nearing the apex—expect volatility and potential breakout in either direction.
* A breakout above $307 with strong volume could trigger a squeeze toward $320–$344.
* Breakdown below the rising trendline near $297 could invite downside liquidity grabs.
Indicators Analysis
* MACD is showing bullish cross momentum, but it’s flattening—momentum is not strong yet.
* Stoch RSI is approaching the overbought zone, indicating a short-term pullback could occur before a true breakout.
Key Levels
* Support: $297 / $281 / $272
* Resistance: $307 / $320 / $344
* Reversal Zone: $272–$281 demand zone still valid if price drops.
Options GEX Sentiment
* GEX Walls are stacked around $325 and $344, signaling heavy call positioning—possible magnet if momentum confirms.
* IVR: 25.7 (low but rising)
* Call%: 42.6%
* IVx vs Avg IVx: +9.23% suggests bullish bets are heating up.
* GEX: Green across the board — bullish gamma tilt.
This GEX alignment suggests a call-dominant environment, especially above $307, increasing the probability of a gamma squeeze toward $320+ if bulls sustain pressure.
Trade Ideas
* Bullish Scenario: Long above $307 breakout with volume. Targets: $320, $344.
* Bearish Scenario: Short below $297 breakdown or wick rejection at $307. Targets: $281 / $272.
Conclusion
MSTR is coiling at resistance with bullish signals building. If it breaks $307 with volume, there’s room for a sharp move higher supported by strong call walls and GEX. However, fading momentum or a fakeout at this level can lead to a pullback to $281 or lower.
📌 Watch the volume and MACD for confirmation before entering either side.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
PYPL Building a Base or Faking a Bounce? All Eyes on This CHoCH!Market Structure & Price Action
PayPal (PYPL) is showing early signs of a potential reversal after forming a CHoCH (Change of Character) near the $66 level following a prior BOS (Break of Structure) and key demand reaction around $63.38. The price is now trading inside a retest range from a previous order block and pushing higher with a bullish structure of higher lows. A clean ascending trendline supports the move, with price respecting the diagonal base.
MACD is showing light momentum to the upside, and Stoch RSI is coiled just under overbought — signaling possible short-term consolidation before continuation or a breakout.
Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance Zone (Supply): $71.50 – $72.00
* Support Zone (Demand): $63.38 – $64.57
* Breakout Trigger: Over $66.50 with volume
* Breakdown Trigger: Below $63.38 BOS zone
GEX & Options Flow Sentiment
* GEX Walls (Gamma Exposure):
* Highest Call Wall / Resistance: $72.00
* Put Wall / Support: $63.00
* Options Oscillator (Pro):
* IVR: 39.7
* IVx avg: 45.3
* Call$: 12.6%
* GEX: 🟢🟢🟢
* Bias: Slightly Bullish into resistance, volatility could expand above $67.
Trade Setup Ideas
Bullish: If price holds above $65.50 and breaks $66.50, we may see a squeeze toward $69 and eventually $71.
* Entry: $66.50
* Stop: $64.70
* Targets: $69 / $71.50
Bearish: Failure to break $66.50 with rejection + bearish divergence may offer a put opportunity toward $63.
* Entry: $65.70 rejection or breakdown below $64.50
* Stop: $66.60
* Target: $63.50 / $62.80
Conclusion
PYPL is bouncing within a consolidating range, and the CHoCH suggests possible accumulation. A breakout above $66.50 confirms strength; otherwise, it’s a fade back to support. Watch the trendline and volume closely this week.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
XOM Coiling Under Resistance: Gamma Breakout or Rejection Setup?1. Market Structure Analysis: XOM has formed a balanced range after printing a Break of Structure (BOS) and two notable CHoCHs on the 1H timeframe. Price is consolidating inside a green supply zone between 118.50–119.90, with wicks tapping the top of the zone but no clean breakout yet. The price structure is forming higher lows from the March 28th pivot, signaling accumulation beneath key resistance.
2. Supply and Demand Zones:
* Demand Zone (Support): 117.21 → Strong historical zone and prior low from BOS candle.
* Supply Zone (Resistance): 119.00 – 119.90 → Flat ceiling that's held since March 26.
3. Order Blocks and Support/Resistance:
* Resistance: 119.90 (key gamma wall + SMC zone)
* Support: 117.21 (red BOS support and trendline base)
* Trendline: An ascending support trendline from March 28th low is intact. Watching for a triangle breakout or breakdown.
4. Key Indicators (MACD, Stoch RSI):
* MACD shows a bullish crossover with histogram building strength.
* Stoch RSI is rising out of oversold territory and nearing mid-zone. Still room to run before hitting exhaustion.
These indicators currently support momentum building toward a bullish breakout.
5. Options Flow / GEX Sentiment Zones:
* Highest positive GEX: 120.00 → Gamma resistance and breakout target.
* Call Walls: 119.00 (74.31%), 121.00 (moderate), 124.00 (light).
* Put Walls / Downside GEX: 116.00 is the HVL + strong negative gamma level, 115.00 and 113.00 are next layers of support.
Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 29.1
* IVx avg: 24.2
* Put$ Flow: 24.3%
* GEX Bias: Strongly bullish with green bars stacked to 124
This setup supports a potential gamma squeeze if price pushes above 120 with strength.
6. Scalping vs Swing Outlook:
* Scalp Bullish Trigger: Break and hold above 119.90 = breakout play to 121.00.
* Scalp Bearish Trigger: Rejection at 119.90 = short setup back to 118.30–117.90.
* Swing Bullish Setup: Entry on retest of 118.50 with SL below 117.20 and PT at 121.00 → 124.00
* Swing Bearish Setup: Only valid if clean break below 117.20 with volume, targeting 116 → 113.
7. Actionable Suggestion: If XOM opens above 119.50 and breaks 119.90 with increasing volume and flow, look for a momentum breakout toward 121 and 124. If the move stalls under 119.90 again, consider fading the resistance for a pullback play.
8. Conclusion: XOM is coiled for a potential breakout, sitting just below a major resistance cluster at 119.90. Gamma levels and bullish options flow favor an upside push, but failure to break could trigger mean-reversion. Watch for volume and reaction at the 120 level.
9. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
$NASDAQ:TLRY Up in Smoke or Waiting for the Puff and Pump?NASDAQ:TLRY Up in Smoke or Waiting for the Puff and Pump?
Left for Dead or a Sleeper Rocket in the Making? 🚀
Alright, let’s talk about Tilray (TLRY). I know what you’re thinking: this thing’s been taken behind the woodshed, beaten, and then fed through the wood chipper—twice. Technically speaking, it’s been in a brutal downtrend. But here's where it gets interesting...
Since December, I’ve been noticing signs of quiet accumulation. Volume patterns are showing life. This isn’t just random noise... it looks like smart money nibbling while the rest of the market sleeps.
Fundamentally, it's trading at 0.68x sales and a crazy 0.17x price to book. That’s deep value territory... basically priced like it’s going out of business, which it’s not. Cannabis isn’t going anywhere, and when this sector comes back (and it will), I want to already be on the launchpad.
Now imagine a scenario: Trump leans on Musk-style libertarian logic, and pushes for federal legalization to fill the coffers with tax revenue (and their pockets as they and their friends will be ahead of the trend as all politicians at that level are). Boom. You think this thing trades at 65 cents for long? Me neither.
I’m not saying we’re going to $5 next week....but the risk/reward here feels very asymmetrical. Worst case? We chop sideways or retest lows. Best case? We get a face-melter rally that TLRY has shown it's capable of in the past.
This is precisely the kind of chart I look for. Beaten up, forgotten, but technically setting up... and fundamentally undervalued.
Not financial advice. Just sharing my thinking as someone who loves deep contrarian setups.