XLF - housing slow down in FL and AZ - bear spread and long putXLF bear spread and long put is my trade, thesis is we may be creating a double top.
Banks have run up quit abit and are far away from their book value.
Housing seems to be slowing in Florida and Arizona.
Tarriffs may muddle with international payments, at least creating desire for certainty.
Vix volatility is threatening to go higher. I dont trade vix directly.
be safe out there!
Beyond Technical Analysis
Gold Price Analysis: Short-Term Pullback Before Resuming Uptrendhello guys.
let's analyze gold
Resistance and Pullback:
The price recently tested a resistance zone around $2,900, which could indicate exhaustion in the current uptrend. The immediate pullback from this level suggests that buyers are taking profits, and the market may temporarily retreat.
Support Zone:
The blue support zone (ranging from $2,820 to $2,840) is crucial. This area aligns with the rising trendline, and it is expected to provide support. If the price reaches this region, it could trigger another round of buying, pushing gold higher once again.
Next Move:
If gold prices successfully hold above the support zone, we might see a continuation of the uptrend toward the upper boundary of the channel, potentially targeting $2,950 to $3,000 in the coming weeks.
However, if the support fails, a deeper pullback could test the next key levels below $2,800 before the market can resume its upward trajectory.
Conclusion:
The pullback from the $2,900 resistance zone suggests a likely short-term correction. Gold prices are expected to test the blue support zone around $2,820 before potentially resuming the bullish trend toward higher levels.
ID: 2025 - 0062.28.2025
Trade #6 of 2025 executed. So simple, yet far from easy...
Trade entry at 168 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Ethereum Breakdown in Progress – Will the Next Support Hold?Ethereum (ETH) is currently breaking below the ascending trendline, signaling a potential further downside. The price is testing the first blue support zone, and if this level fails to hold, ETH is likely to drop towards the next major support area around $1,400.
Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 First blue area (~$2,100–$2,300): ETH is currently breaking below this zone. If confirmed, the downtrend will likely accelerate.
🔹 Next blue area (~$1,350–$1,450): If the first support breaks, ETH could decline further to this key historical level.
Bearish Confirmation:
Trendline Breakdown: ETH has already fallen below the long-term ascending trendline, indicating a shift in structure.
Break & Retest: A failed recovery above $2,300 would confirm a further downside.
Traders should watch for a weekly close below $2,100 to confirm the breakdown. If buyers step in and reclaim $2,300, a relief bounce could occur.
ID: 2025 - 0031.27.2025
3rd trade of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 144 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 15 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 15. Overlapping short strikes give it the "unbalanced" butterfly nomenclature.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
ID: 2025 - 0021.13.2025
2nd trade of 2025 executed today.
Trade entry at 158 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
Happy Trading!
-kevin
Gold’s Glimmering Pullback: A Strategic PauseIn recent weeks, gold (XAU/USD) has experienced a notable pullback from its record highs, influenced by a combination of technical indicators and fundamental factors. The emergence of a Shooting Star candlestick pattern at the peak suggests potential short-term bearish momentum, while overbought conditions indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) further support the likelihood of a temporary correction. Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have intensified gold’s rally. However, positive economic data has led to speculation that the Fed may slow the pace of rate cuts, contributing to the recent price decline. Despite this pullback, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with analysts viewing the current dip as a strategic opportunity for investors to enter the market at more favorable levels. FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
Bitcoin Finds Strong Support – Is a Reversal on the Horizon?hello guys
Bitcoin recently completed a crown pattern, a bearish reversal formation that signaled a downward move. As expected, BTC followed the pattern structure and reached its target.
Currently, the price has touched two critical technical levels:
✔ The balance line – A key horizontal support zone
✔ The ascending trendline – Acting as dynamic support from previous lows
This confluence of support suggests that BTC might be at a potential reversal zone. However, while the conditions seem favorable for an upward movement, we need additional confirmation. Possible bullish signals to watch for include:
A strong bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing, pin bar)
Increased buying volume
A break above the nearest resistance level
If BTC maintains this support, we could see a recovery towards $90K+ levels in the short term. Otherwise, a breakdown below the trendline may trigger further downside.
LTCUSDT - MonthlyThe LTCUSDT currency is one of the currencies with high demand and we have always witnessed frequent increases in this currency. It has had two upward swings up to the $140 range, and the third swing will occur in two cases: the first case is a decrease and increase to the target range, and the second case is an increase from the current price directly towards the target.
Sasha Charkhchian
TAOUSDT LONG 1HLocal signs of a price reversal are forming on the TAO coin , which opens up new opportunities for finding good long entry points.
I'm waiting for confirmation of the POI block with the subsequent reaction of purchases. If the variables are positive, I will open a Long position with the following targets:
$342.50
$360.00
$392.30
Risk management - 1% on stop order
$LINK Chainlink 55% Retracement ... Ready for Higher?CRYPTOCAP:LINK Chainlink Link has committed a 55% retracement after superbuy signal, from a height of approximately $30
Current Price: $14.7
Price action is forming a Falling Channel and Bullish Divergence Spotted also
Expecting a retest of previous supports - now resistances at 19.9, 25.9. 30.4
Invalidation is at under 13.5
WHITEROCK will move into a MultiBillion Market CapI feel this is the future of crypto and the stock market.
I like that this is in the top 3 holdings of Vitalik Buterin
intel.arkm.com
WhiteRock has a ton of potential to be in multi billion market cap in less than 12 months.
If you are in the US you need a VPN to access this website.
NVDA to 151? Morning Trading Fam
Currently this is what I am seeing with NVDA, looks like we have decent support around 118 if that level holds I can see us driving up to 144 then 151 from here. However if we break through the 118 support: we could possibly see a massive breakdown down to 87-88 dollar range.
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
Dogecoin (DOGE) Analysis: Double Top Signals Bearish Movehello guys!
Double Top Formation:
The chart clearly shows a double-top pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal signal.
The break below the neckline confirms the downtrend continuation.
Bearish Divergence on RSI:
The RSI showed divergence, meaning the price made a higher high, but the RSI made a lower high.
This signals weakening momentum and a likely correction.
Support Levels (S1 & S2):
S1 (around $0.22) might provide temporary relief, but the main target is lower.
S2 ($0.176 - $0.18) aligns with the double top target, making it a critical support zone.
Potential Price Scenarios:
If DOGE fails to hold at S1, the price may drop to S2, completing the pattern.
A strong rebound from S2 could trigger a bullish recovery.
Conclusion:
The double top breakdown suggests further downside toward $0.176 - $0.18, which could act as a strong support level. Until a clear reversal signal appears, the bearish trend remains dominant. Traders should watch these levels closely! 🚨📉
[ TimeLine ] Gold 27-28 February 2025Hello everyone,
I will be using the high and low price levels formed on the following dates as entry points for my trades:
February 27, 2025
and/or
February 27 + 28, 2025
We will wait for the price range from these candles to form as indicated with blue box. The trade entry will be triggered if the price breaks out of this range, with an additional buffer of 60 pips.
If the price moves against the initial position and hits the stop loss (SL), we will cut or switch the trade accordingly.
Capturing Market Moves with the Special Candle SetupOverview
The Special Candle Setup Indicator has once again proven its effectiveness in detecting high-probability candlestick formations. In this chart, a bearish pattern was identified at the top, providing an early indication of a potential downside move. This setup allowed traders to position themselves accordingly, capturing the downward trend efficiently.
How It Worked Here
🔹 Precise Bearish Signal – The indicator detected a bearish pattern at a key resistance level, signaling a potential reversal.
🔹 Well-Defined Key Levels – The automatically plotted blue support line and green resistance line provided crucial reference points for trade management.
🔹 Trend Continuation Confirmation – The setup was followed by further bearish price action, validating the accuracy of the signal.
Key Takeaways
✅ Early Signal Accuracy – The indicator highlighted the reversal before the major drop, reinforcing its reliability.
✅ Multi-Market Application – These candlestick formations are not limited to expiry days; they are observed across crypto, forex, stocks, and indices.
✅ Customizable for Different Strategies – Users can enable or disable specific pattern types (bullish/bearish or reversal setups) based on their trading style.
Why This Matters?
Price action remains one of the most powerful trading tools, and this indicator helps traders automate pattern detection while integrating dynamic support and resistance levels for added confluence.