Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower with a gap-down amid growing recession fears. Although it did not reach the 20-month moving average (MA) on the monthly chart, last month’s long bearish candlestick has resulted in a sell signal on the monthly futures chart—the first time in three years since February 2022. From a monthly perspective, the 16,900–17,500 range appears to be a good buying zone, but it is important to monitor whether the index reaches this level within this month’s candle. The 20-month MA is likely to be briefly breached, even if a lower wick forms.
On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq is currently finding short-term support around 19,000, but given the large gap between the 3-week and 5-week MAs, a rebound remains a possibility. On the daily chart, a sell signal has not yet been confirmed. If further declines confirm a bearish crossover, the Nasdaq could enter a third wave of selling, with a target of 17,300. The key question is whether the market experiences another sharp drop.
However, given the significant distance from the 5-day MA, the more likely scenario is sideways movement for a few days, allowing the moving averages to catch up before a potential further decline. In this case, it is advisable to trade within the range but always use stop-losses. The 240-minute chart also shows strong downward movement. While the market is in oversold territory, making short-selling more favorable, there is also the possibility of a range-bound pattern forming on the daily chart. If taking buy positions at the lows, strict stop-loss management is essential.
Crude Oil
Oil closed higher following news of tariffs imposed on Russian oil. The price successfully broke above the key resistance at $70, also surpassing the 240-day MA. On the monthly chart, oil has now entered a range where further upside potential exists, and there is a possibility that the MACD could attempt a bullish crossover with the signal line.
On the daily chart, the MACD has moved above the zero line, pulling the signal line upward. If the price stays above the 240-day MA, it may form a strong trend reversal pattern with accelerated gains. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD remains above the zero line and is crossing above the signal line, indicating continued buying momentum.
Overall, it is best to focus on buying dips, as April’s first trading session could see the price gapping above the 240-day MA. Holding overnight short positions carries risk, so caution is advised.
Gold
Gold closed higher, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets. On the monthly chart, gold formed a long bullish candlestick. However, given the large gap between the price and the 3-month & 5-month MAs, a pullback remains a possibility. The key question is whether gold will continue rising before a correction or correct first before resuming its uptrend. It is best to monitor the price action closely.
On the daily chart, the MACD is forming a third wave of buying pressure, opening the possibility for a price target around 3,216. Thus, it is advisable to focus on buying dips, while being cautious about chasing highs due to potential volatility. The 240-minute chart indicates that strong buying momentum continues, as gold remains in overbought territory.
Since this is the beginning of a new month, key economic reports—including the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the U.S. Jobs Report—could significantly impact gold’s volatility. For both buy and sell positions, it is essential to set stop-loss levels, as increased volatility is expected.
With Trump’s tariff policies increasing the risk of a global recession, liquidity in global equity markets is drying up, reducing the attractiveness of stocks. The clear contrast between Nasdaq and gold’s performance is likely to persist for some time.
As we enter April’s first trading session, trade cautiously and adapt to market conditions.
Wishing you a successful trading day!
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Beyond Technical Analysis
ASML is on life support Warning: This baby is super volatile and not for beginners. If you’re trading with a small account, start with 1 share and put your stop in as soon as you enter. No exceptions.
We’ve got 3 lower highs, and there are institutional sellers parked near the 200-day EMA, slowly walking this thing down.
If they press, I’m watching to see if ASML can test the $650 area.
If it breaks, we might be looking at another 50–60 points lower.
📌 Tight stop: $750
📌 Wider stop: $770
This one isn’t for the faint of heart—respect the volatility and use stops!
Liberation dayApril 2nd, referred to as "Liberation Day" by President Trump, is the day he plans to announce new tariffs on imports from various countries, aiming to reduce reliance on foreign goods. The specific details of these tariffs are still unclear, but they are expected to impact a wide range of products. Gold has been on a face-ripping vertical rally up into this news on expectations that this will be big news, but it's pre-announced which means it's a clear sell the news event. I am going to buy 0DTE puts on gold at the market open on April 2nd and sell them before the close.
CAD/CHF📌 Pair: CAD/CHF
📌 Entry: 0.61423 | SL: 0.61042 | TP: 0.62101
CAD/CHF balances a commodity currency (CAD) and a safe-haven currency (CHF), making it reactive to oil prices and risk sentiment. It tends to correlate with CAD/JPY & AUD/CHF, while inversely linked to USD/CHF.
Currently watching for an upside move—keep an eye on oil markets and market sentiment shifts. Trade smart! 📈💡 #Forex #CADCHF #TradingSetup
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Tuesday, 1st April 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-ISM Manufacturing PMI
-JOLTS Job Openings
Analysis:
-Strong bullish closure on daily
-Looking for continuation to the upside after 4hr structure retest
-Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3100
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
USDJPY_2025-03-31Insane Trade Today.
Drawdown:3.8pips
TP: 81 Pips
To start the week, we have price reach and hover at a daily Luquidity Void.
From there, During London came a entry - Below Asia Low.
We would look to enter here being a bit bullish on the DLV.
To reinforce this buy idea, (if you didnt enter at asia low)
Price then broke a near high.
Retraces to the 15min Orderblock, then continued upward to TP at 81pips.
Gold trend in Eur and US sessions -Decline and increase again💢💢💢 Gold news:
➡️ Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trend during the first half of the European trading session on Monday, currently hovering near its all-time high just above $3,120. Uncertainty surrounding former U.S. President Donald Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs, along with growing fears of a U.S. economic recession and geopolitical risks, continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The risk-off mood is evident in the generally weaker tone of the stock markets, driving the safe-haven precious metal higher for the third consecutive day.
➡️However, bullish traders may take a breather amid overbought conditions on the daily chart and ahead of key U.S. macroeconomic releases later this week.
Personal opinion:
➡️ In general, in the long term, the main trend of gold is still increasing and shows no signs of stopping. Therefore, waiting for the time when gold declines technically to buy at a good price is a reasonable measure
➡️ Currently, gold is having a technical adjustment after RSI entered the overbought zone and decreased again
➡️Analysis based on resistance - support levels and trend lines combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉 Buy XAU/USD 3100 - 3102
❌SL: 3095 | ✅TP: 3106 - 3112 - 3118
👉 Sell XAU/USD 3129 - 3132
❌SL: 3136 | ✅TP: 3125 - 3120 - 3115
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold – Key Buying Zone at 3,090 for a Target of 3,157Why is $3,090 a Great Buying Area?
Support within the Channel – The price has been respecting the lower boundary of the channel, and 3,090 aligns with this trend structure.
Volume Profile Confirmation – Visible volume accumulation around this level suggests it has strong support. Buyers previously stepped in here, making it a logical point for re-entry.
Trend Continuation Setup – The overall bullish structure remains intact, making pullbacks like 3,090 a low-risk buying area for continuation toward the target of 3,157.
Why Not Short Here?
The trend is clearly bullish, and there are no reversal signals.
Even if a pullback occurs, it should be seen as an opportunity to buy rather than an indication to short.
The price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, but until clear bearish signals appear, betting against the trend is risky.
Conclusion
A pullback to 3,090 should be considered a buying opportunity for a move toward 3,157. As long as the price remains within the channel, the primary focus should be on buying dips rather than looking for short entries.
Next Volatility Period: Around April 5 (April 4-6)
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(BTCUSDT 1M chart)
A new candle has been created as a new month begins.
The StochRSI indicator has fallen below the midpoint, and OBV has been hunting since around October 1, 2024.
As I mentioned before, the StochRSI indicator must fall to the oversold zone and then rise to create a peak in order to draw a trend line between the lows.
Therefore, the point to watch next month is whether the StochRSI indicator can enter the oversold zone.
The key is whether the price can be maintained above 73499.86.
-
(1D chart)
If the current StochRSI indicator creates a peak in the oversold zone, that is, if it closes up, the uptrend line (2) will be completed.
If that happens, we should see whether it can maintain the price by rising above the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12) around April 5th.
If not, it is highly likely that it will eventually fall again.
In the explanation of the 1M chart, I said that the StochRSI indicator should enter the oversold zone.
You may think that the price should fall because of this, but you should not necessarily think that the price will fall because the StochRSI indicator may show a downward trend even if the price rises.
In such an ambiguous situation, rather than predicting whether it will rise or fall, you should check whether the current price position is supported or falling and think about whether to respond.
As I said earlier, you should respond depending on whether there is support near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart where the arrow is pointing.
This time, you should check in which direction it deviates from the Fibonacci ratio range of 2 (80999.68) ~ 2.24 (83646.12) and think about a response plan.
This movement is expected to appear after the next volatility period, April 4-6.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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- This is an explanation of the big picture.
To check the entire range of BTC, I used TradingView's INDEX chart.
I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio range of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).
(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year upward trend and faces a 1-year downward trend.
Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025.
-
(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)
Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).
It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).
(BTCUSDT 12M chart)
Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58.
-
I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.
The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.
In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges.
Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point of interest is whether they can be supported and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).
Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range.
In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28).
If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.
Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio of 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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ES1 2025-03-31 SPOOZ 15minOBHello everyone, I hope you won, stayed out, or learned something form the market today 😂.
Today was a easy grab.
Drawdown: 17. Tics
TP: 111. Tics Grabbed (out of 438)
Spooz Open Manipulation,
Broke near high,
Retraced to 15min Order Block,
TP Hit at 3 equal Highs (volume).
If you found this inciteful, join our group discussion! (link in bio)
monthly and 2week @255.43 i doubt MicroStrategy will be able to hang on when all other crypto and stocks are breaking structure. the yellow trendline is the most touches i could get. all trendlines are on daily.
just broke below 100ema today. look where 200ema is. ???
since its going2b that kinda party, imma gonna stick my dikc in the mashpotatos~
BTCUSD Potential Breakout and Retest - Key Levels to Watch!
Today, we're diving into the BTCUSD Perpetual Contract on Bybit, examining some intriguing technical setups that could hint at Bitcoin's next big move. Strap in as we navigate through critical support/resistance zones and what the Market Cipher B indicator is telling us.
Technical Analysis:
Current Position:
Price: Bitcoin is currently trading around $82,460.
Immediate Levels: There are several crucial horizontal levels that have shown significant market reactions in the past. Notably, resistance near $88,686 and support around $80,609.
Volume Profile Insights:
The visible range volume profile shows high trading activity around the $83,600 mark, indicating it as the Point of Control (POC). This level could play a pivotal role in upcoming sessions, serving as a stiff resistance or support upon retests.
Market Cipher B Analysis:
The Market Cipher B oscillator is showing increasing momentum, with the most recent wave turning upwards. This could be a precursor to bullish behavior if we see a sustained push above the zero line.
Projected Movements:
The drawn-out price path suggests a potential rally towards the $92,500 area, followed by a significant pullback. Traders should prepare for volatility and use this projected path to set strategic stop-loss and take-profit points.
Strategy:
Long Entry: Consider a long position if Bitcoin breaks and holds above the $83,600 POC. Set stop-loss just below $82,460.
Short Scenario: If Bitcoin fails to sustain above the POC and breaks below $80,609, a short position could be favorable, with a stop-loss set just above the breakout level.
Conclusion: Bitcoin's price is at a crossroads, and the next few days could be crucial for setting the tone in the medium term. Keep an eye on the $83,600 level for significant market decisions and adjust your strategies accordingly.
#Bitcoin #BTCUSD #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketCipher
Idea #100 - In this market, it BETTER be a good one: LONG WMTIt's been a while since I posted an idea and to those who follow me I am sorry/not sorry. I didn't post for a few reasons:
1) I know that there are people who trade my ideas despite my warnings/disclaimers and I didn't like how the market was acting for the last couple of weeks (rightly, as it turns out) and I didn't want anyone else to get caught up in this unnecessarily. I have been continuing to personally trade my system, with mixed results (to be expected in this market), but I wanted to make #100 a good one.
2) I wanted to do a summary of the ideas I've posted so far with #100 and wanted to get that information together first.
3) I think posting this now can provide some insights as to how to deal with market washouts calmly and with confidence, with things that could apply to most trading systems, I think.
So first, lets deal with the idea at hand. I chose WMT because:
a) it is historically a top 10% stock in terms of daily % return for how I trade, so if anyone decided to follow me on this trade (see disclaimer below), it was at least a stock that has historically done well. And by well, I mean 1355-0 W/L record well, with an AVERAGE gain of 5.16% per trade for all 1355 trades (backtested and actual trades combined) going back through every market meltdown since 1972.
b) This is the kind of market that makes it FAR more likely that trades will take a long time to play out. MUCH longer than average. So again, if I have to hold this a long time, I want a quality stock that has a long track record of surviving long downtrends in the market. I can't think of a better retail stock to own during a recession, which I think is a certainty at this point, it's just a question of when it becomes official and how long it lasts. WMT is already the retailer of choice for many, and if saving money becomes a requirement for many more, WMT will steal a lot of business from more expensive retailers.
c) despite the recent carnage for it and the market, WMT is still above it's 200d MA and solidly in an uptrend. I always like trading stocks in uptrends. Hopefully it stays in one long enough for me to make my money and run.
Lot 1 opened today at the close at 87.82
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
_______________________________
So there's my case for WMT. Now here's the case for why I'm trading anything using my system right now. The first idea I posted here was on June 22nd of this past summer. Since the close that day, the Nasdaq's return is actually negative (-1.48%) and the S&P 500 is up marginally (+2.7%).
Since June 22nd, I have logged (timestamped) here every buy and sell of every lot of every idea since then. That amounts to a total of 330 lots traded. In the time since, 289 of those trades closed with a gain, 37 are still open and negative, and two were opened today (this one and an add to RDDT) which are neither winning nor losing yet. That's an 87.6% win rate so far.
INCLUDING the 37 trades that are losers right now (the losers include 8 lots that are down 30% or more and two options trades that each lost 100%), the AVERAGE return on those 330 trades is +1.88% EACH. That translates to .11% per day held - almost 3x the long term average daily return for stocks and almost 8x the average daily return of the S&P 500 since June 22. Annualized, that's 27% rate of return and I was on pace for a 36% annualized rate of return on these trades before this market swoon hit. Compared to -1.48% and 2.4% for the indices, it's been a pretty good 9 months of trading, but actually below my system's long term average.
The profit factor on these trades (including the open losers) is currently 1.98 (it was over 2.5 2 weeks ago before the market collapse began). The average holding period is 17 days, but that is skewed longer by 10 lots of PXS that I've been holding for over 4 months each. The median hold length for all 330 trades is 5 trading days and the most common holding period (including the 37 still open losers) is ONE trading day.
OK, this turned out to be a longer post than I intended, so I'll post another idea tomorrow with some thoughts about dealing with trading in down markets.
To everyone who is reading this and especially those who are following me - thanks for the follows and for taking the time to read this whole thing. Be safe trading out there!
I'm selling EURGBPIf you dont trade this pair directly, you can use it to know which pair is stronger between EUR and GBP. But you should trade it tho, why limit yourself to any pair in particular?
Now, it is better to buy GU than EU as GU will move more massively ie if the analysis hold.
I will like for you to trade it tho, the risk is small when compared to the massive result.
Follow me as my trades are market orders and not limit orders so you will be able to see the trades on time and enter on time.
Ya gazie
TRXUSDT 1D LONG [UPdate]In line with the expectations I outlined in my main TRXUSDT 1D LONG review the price interacted perfectly with the key liquidity block and turned around confidently.
To feel safe in this position, I move the stop order to breakeven and continue to wait for my targets to be reached!
Targets:
$0.2509
$0.2580
$0.2679
$0.2815
USD_CHF SHORT SIGNAL|
✅USD_CHF is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 0.8860
Thus I am expecting a pullback
Which means we can enter a
Short trade with the TP of 0.8835
And the SL of 0.8866 but its is a
Risky setup so we recommend to use
A small lot size
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
GBPUSD 4H SHORT [UPdate]In line with expectations of a decline in GBPUSD, the price interacted with the primary order block. To feel safe in this position, I move the stop order to $1.29620
I expect the downward trend I mentioned in the main review to continue to my targets:
$1.28609
$1.28030
$1.27534
$1.26722
USDPY SHORT Market structure bearish on HTFs 3
Entry at Daily AOi
Weekly Rejection at AOi
Weekly EMA Retest
Daily Rejection at AOi
Daily EMA retest
Previous Structure point Daily
Around Psychological Level 151.000
H4 EMA retest
H4 Candlestick rejection
Rejection from Previous structure
Levels 4.85
Entry 90%
REMEMBER : Trading is a Game Of Probability
: Manage Your Risk
: Be Patient
: Every Moment Is Unique
: Rinse, Wash, Repeat!
: Christ is King.