The Gap Between What Is and What Will BeThere are 5 basic ways to trade a Gap or any line. In this video, I discuss two ways to enter the market using a Gap before I make the trade plan. The Gap entry techniques by themselves are of little use, but if we make a few distinctions in market structure and the process of a swing cycle, they can become functional.
Swing cycles have a process that they go through. As long as we understand that process we can view Gaps in the light of where they happen in that process. I'm going to focus these two Gap entry techniques in the lower portion of the reaction leg at the bottom pivot of a swing. The Gaps are what make up the pivot portion of the swing.
If you observe markets and swings you will often see this distinct pivot portion of a swing, it looks like a U at the bottom of a reaction leg as the buyers wrestle control back from the sellers.
Shane
Beyond Technical Analysis
High Volume Times to Trade / Part 2 🔢Hello Traders welcome back to another concept video. This is the second video in our series -- High Volume Times to Trade --
We talk about
1) 4Hr Candle Opens/Closes
2) New York Stock Exchnage Open
3) London Close
Scalping/Intra-day trading during these times, in my experience, can provide unique opportunities to profit on Eur/Usd.
Similar to Part 1 of our series, these additional times to trade can provide that extra volume for
1) a nice continuation of the preceding trend
2) a short-term reversal of the preceding trend
and 3) act as a catalyst for the beginning of a higher timeframe trend
Position Sizing: Learning to Lose
Position sizing is one of the components of a trading plan, and it's important to be just as disciplined and consistent with this as with all other parts of the plan. Position sizing is defining how much we will risk for each and our objective is to consistently get the most profit with the least amount of risk.
So, how much should you risk per trade? There is no one-size-fits-all answer, but to manage our risk consistently, we must establish simple, objective, and common-sense rules grounded in the realities of trading.
Let's take a look at some of those realities
• As traders, we should expect to lose more often than win and must learn how to manage
losses effectively.
• At some point, we will face drawdowns with many consecutive losses.
• Successful trading results from a series of many trades and the compounding of gains,
not just from being right on one or a few trades.
In the video, I will show a simple guideline for calculating how much to risk per trade based on your risk tolerance over a series of trades and a drawdown number. I'm going to give you a default drawdown of 30 consecutive losses.
For example, if you have a $10,000 account and don’t want to lose more than 15% ($1,500) of your account in drawdowns, you would divide $1,500 by the default drawdown of 30 stops, which would give you $50 per trade (1/2% of the account per trade). This plan allows you to lose 30 times in a row while staying within your risk tolerance. This doesn’t mean you have to risk the entire $50 per trade; consider it a maximum amount.
If you are relatively new to trading or still fine-tuning your approach, I suggest trading very small amounts. Less than 1/4% of your account balance. Choose what feels comfortable and stick to it consistently. This allows you to make many trades while learning and not damage yourself. Be deliberate and create a plan to earn the right to size. For instance, require at least a small profit after two months and comfort with your method before incrementally increasing your risk per trade. Repeat this process every two months before increasing your size again.
It's this kind of work that helps to balance your psychological mindset. You don't get that from books about trading psychology, you get it from grounded and deliberate practice.
Use my position sizing calculations as guidelines and adjust accordingly. Once it is set, be consistent in what you do.
A further breakdown of how I read the market and all the "lines"Key words to understand:
- Tapering
- Liquidity
- Tapering
- Tapering
It's important to understand how liquidity plays a role in moving price and what it actually means. In order for price to make a solid move anywhere, there has to be liquidity built up for price to grab (use) to break out of strong resistance levels (i.e. levels with lots of sellers ready to short when price gets there).
Tapering is a way of seeing a lack of liquidity by a certain side - if we begin tapering from a strong buying channel to a less strong buying channel, it typically means we are lacking liquidity to break out of that strong selling level (i.e. the top of a more tapered channel acts as a level of resistance because the more tapered it is (or the more horizontal it is), the more it lines up for all sellers to get in at the same price win the battle.
This all makes so much sense to me and it is the key for you to unlock the market . To be able to tell a story in every chart and understand who is in charge, why there in charge, and what each side has to do in order to win their next battle.
Please reach out with any questions, comments, etc. I am here for you !
Happy Trading :)
Making and using Stacked Channels on log scale for targets 🧠 💱Alright, so here I will explain the idea of stacked channels on a logarithmic scale. First thing you need to do is go to logarithmic on your chart. You might want to reset the scale just for convenience so it looks nice and neat. Then you go to the channel and look, obviously we're going to start at the bottom. Okay. Now what you want to do is you find your channel here, right? Let's say this was the first one. You can go here as well. You can go here. It's whatever. I'll just go here to the beginning See how it lines up at the top. Okay, then I'll extend it And you were asking when does the price break out of the channel so here I'll mark it so you see This was a fake out. But here we have a legit legitimate breakout, right? So If I highlight this area right here, you know, you have the breakout of the channel, out of the channel. So what I do now is, I'm going to copy this channel, clone it. Ok, CTRL-C, CTRL-V, just slide it up, match the top of the old channel to the bottom of the new one. And you have a nice target here. See how it touched and stayed roughly around here? So that's all there is to it. And look, perfect here. You see? Confirmation. Confirmation again. Confirmation again. That's how you do it.
Defining Target for Risk Reward: Maybe you shouldn't?The trade plan is broken up into parts. We have an objective and consistent entry, stop, and exit plan. Here I will be talking about the exit plan and setting targets that will give you a particular risk/reward ratio. There are no absolutes when it comes to what risk/reward you should be aiming for, a lot has to do with how you handle risk and loss and your overall understanding of markets.
Defining the stop (risk) is relatively easy compared to defining the target (reward). Mostly you need a clean set of statistics on an objective method. This will give you an average distance that the swing will run in relation to your method. The reward part of the equation is a function of how far your stop is to your entry.
There is no one-size-fits-all when it comes to trading. For many, it may be best not to set a target, but instead use something simple and objective like a moving average to exit the trade. This way, you get what the market gives you while incorporating consistency and objectivity into your exit plan. Keep it simple, objective, and consistent, and learn as you go. In the video, I make something up on the spot that may give you some ideas. I use a 20ema as a profit stop only after price has made a new high. It's simple, principle-based, and it's objective.
No matter what your method, knowing where you are in the swing cycle will help in defining entry, stop, and target, and this will directly influence the risk/reward ratio.
Shane
Why Central Banks Buying Gold & Institutions Hedging the Yields?While many of us celebrate the stock markets reaching new highs, central banks worldwide are actively purchasing gold, and institutions are hedging into treasuries and yields.
Interest rates are determined by the central banks whereas Yields are determined by the investors.
If you choose to lend or borrow money over a longer period, such as 10 or 30 years, you would typically expect to earn or pay more interest for this extended duration loan contract. However, currently, we are witnessing an inversion of this relationship, known as the inverted yield curve, where borrowers are required to pay higher interest on their short-term loans, such as the 2-year yield we're observing, compared to their longer-term borrowing.
2 Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 2YY
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Exploring ICT Concepts: GBPUSD Educational AnalysisIn this educational video, I will delve into key ICT concepts such as Market Structure, IPDA delivery, Order Pairing, High Resistance Liquidity Zones, and Draw On Liquidity, Entry Confirmations. Additionally, I will provide a detailed long-term daily perspective on GBPUSD.
The purpose of this video is to elucidate why I identified a potential sell opportunity on GBPUSD during the London session. For further context, please refer to the post below.
Refer:
Kind Regards,
The_Architect
A better Relationship w\ TimeTime is relative, you aren't late, you aren't early. When it comes to trading, you will only know after the fact. So by taking the guess work out of whether or not you are on time and just letting the market do what it has to do, all of sudden you can't be late or early
I hope this helps
Our Strategy For "The Leap"Hey guys! Today, we explore 'The Leap', and our strategy for the competition.
It's easy to register if you haven't done so already.
In this video, we cover;
1.) DIRECTIONAL BIAS
2.) WHERE TO TRADE
3.) WHERE TO RISK
4.) POSITION MANAGEMENT
for the strategy we'll be using. It's a simple breakout strategy we're going to bring to a lower timeframe, so we can get enough trades in before the competition expires.
Good luck to all, we look forward to competing with you!
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HOW TO: Lesson 7- Trader's Phycology Lesson 7 is one the most critical videos for your your success as a trader. Trader's phycology have been studied deeply by the pioneer Mark Douglas. His method have helped a lot of trader and institution to be successful or improve their performance This video explains some fundamentals concerning trader's phycology. Following his guidelines I believe will make you a successful trader.
Context and Learning To Change With ChangeOne of the hardest things for traders, or anyone for that matter, is to adapt to change. Mostly we get stuck when things change, which makes trading difficult since the very nature of markets is change. This is where the cliché 'going with the flow' originates, but simply understanding the cliché isn't enough; we must internalize and practice it and get it in our bones.
In this post, I will outline a trade plan for RNG. This is a part of our '30 Planned Trades' series, where we plan every aspect of the trade ahead of time and then execute what we have planned.
One aspect of a trade plan is the method or setup. Setups don’t happen in a vacuum, there is a context that determines the meaning of the content. I’m going to approach context very simply here as the thing that decides if the market is going up or down.
I often read things about how I should follow the trend or go with the flow or don’t fight the market, but exactly what trend or flow should I follow? It’s too abstract, so I’m going to fix a cycle to follow and learn to let go and change when it changes.
In the video, I show the basics of a simple practice you can try, using a rolling 100-bar cycle to determine if we are looking for long setups, short setups, or in a transitional or neutral phase. I not only want to be precise and consistent in my Trade Plans, I want to be consistent in my methods.
By adhering to a fixed cycle and adapting with changes, I avoid the need to guess or predict market directions, maintaining balance in my approach. Think about this: If you charge your mind with the impossible task of predicting a market when markets are unpredictable, you will end up a nervous wreck and then wonder why your trading is so emotional.
I encourage you to try this practice. Since it keeps you from constantly looking to the left of the chart or at higher time frames for more information, it will likely push you out of your comfort zone into the unknown, which is a good start.
Shane
How-To: Use the TradingView Paper Trading featureTradingView's Paper Trading isn't just for practice; it's a detailed educational platform that closely simulates the real trading environment, all without the risk of losing money. This feature is carefully crafted to mimic actual market scenarios, offering users a realistic preview of how their trading plans might fare.📖🧾
The video is packed with valuable tips 💡 on making the most of the Paper Trading feature. From initiating your paper trading account to executing trades, tracking your positions, and evaluating your trading approach, this guide is essential for anyone looking to refine their trading skills on TradingView.
Engaging in paper trading means more than just trial runs; it integrates you into a community of well-informed traders. It encourages the prudent, yet proactive mindset advocated by TradingView. Such a strategy distinguishes the most successful traders. 📈
In summary, the Paper Trading feature reflects TradingView's dedication to providing its users with the necessary knowledge 📚 and tools ⚒️ for trading success. It champions the "look first, then leap" approach, ensuring that your venture into trading is informed, confident, and well-prepared. Immerse yourself in the video 🎥, delve into the Paper Trading feature, and start your path to becoming a knowledgeable and prosperous trader. 💹
❓Have you tried our Paper Trading feature yet? How did you find it? Love it 🥰, hate it 👎🏽, we want to know especially with our upcoming competition where you could win up to $10,000 paper trading right here on TradingView.
More on that later ⏰ ;)
Happy trading, and always remember – look first, then leap! 👀🦘
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intro to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Arabic Narrative)Novice / Beginner intro to Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technique.
for a succesfull trades, kindly note that the following 3 conditions must be present:
1- your entry point is always above green kumo
2- Bullish TK cross occured above the green Kumo
3- Chiko span is above TK
we never trade in the Kumo.
it's not recommended to trade below the Kumo, and even Bullish TK cross occured in and/or below the kumo
Good luck :-)
M
What Is an Expanding Swing?Markets move in contraction/expansion. Small swings can be thought of as a form of contraction and the bigger swing is a form of expansion. An Expanded Swing is simply a reaction leg that is bigger than the previous reaction leg or legs. Its minor swings growing up to be major swings.
This represents a change in behavior that often causes confusion among the shorts and the longs. The shorts are fearful cause the market is now backing up on them and the longs are fearful cause they see a market now turning up and getting away from them. This confusion creates an opportunity for those that are sitting back with a plan.
To see this price action on a chart, it helps to have some simple and objective definitions for mapping the market and i show this in the video. First, we use market structure to read the market, and then we use a trading structure (trade plan) to structure the actual trade where we manage risk.
Shane
Understanding the ICT BREAKAWAY GAPIn this video I go through the ICT Breakaway Gap and how YOU can use it to your advantage. I include some tips and tricks with a real trade setup demonstration.
The Breakaway Gap may have been an elusive concept to understand, but I present a simple way you can spot them on the chart and frame your trades around them. It is a powerful weapon that can be used to snag some awesome trades.
Simple put, the Breakaway Gap is a gap that does not get traded into with the NEXT FEW CANDLES. Emphasis on the last part because price is fractal, and the best way to frame a trade with ICT's Concepts is by taking a few candles on the higher timeframe for your bias, and going to a lower timeframe to form your narrative, and either entering on that timeframe or even going to a lower timeframe for your entry.
Hopefully this gives you some insight into one of the many concepts that ICT has bestowed upon the public.
If you need clarification about the content, or you are still struggling with finding your groove as a trader and need personal guidance or mentorship, feel free to reach out to me via TradingView’s private message or on X.
Happy trading and happy studying!
- R2F
Review: Did You Make a Clear Plan? Did You Follow That Plan?We can break up the review section of the trading into several distinct sections.
1. Review for discipline and personal insight
2. Review for performance (statistics)
3. Review for market insight
4. Review for method development
I'm going to do the first section "Review For Discipline". We can keep this simple and ask 2 questions.
1. Did you make a clear and objective plan?
2. Did you then do what you said you were going to do in the plan?
These questions demand honest, yes-or-no answers. They force you to confront your trading discipline head-on, without room for excuses or escape. If the answer is no that's ok, just start over with the commitment to keep at it and don't spend too much time on regrets. You might need to make your plan more clear or simply learn the discipline to stay with it. Keep in mind that this isn't about whether you won or lost, it is about learning consistency and discipline.
Shane
How to Trade Symmetrical Triangles, Bull Flags, and Bear Flags
How to Trade Symmetrical Triangles, Bull Flags, and Bear Flags Like a Pro: Unveiling a Game-Changing Strategy! Watch until the end
Unlock the Secrets of Symmetrical Triangles, Bull Flags, and Bear Flags Trading! Discover a Revolutionary Approach that Flips the Game: Targeting Retail Trader Sentiment for Smart Money Entries. Learn How to Trade Like a Pro and Stay Ahead of the Curve in Today's Volatile Markets. Don't Miss Out on This Game-Changing Strategy!
Trade Planning: Learning Through Consistency and DisciplineIm going to do a series of posts that are all about trade planning and learning about consistency and discipline through a practice. In this exercise, I will be consistently planning, executing what I planned, and documenting 30 trades.
A trade plan consists of a method, trade management, position sizing, documentation and review. A trade plan should state ahead of time, exactly where to enter, where to place stop, how the trade is managed, where to exit, and position sizing. This kind of accountability and responsibility offers a contrast to the our normal ineffective emotional impulses that we usually make our trade decisions from so that we can make a choice. I will talk more about each part of the trading plan future posts.
This exercise is not about the method, a setup, picking the right stocks, being right, winning, loosing, or predicting markets. It doesn't matter if all the trades are losses. The purpose is to learn about consistency and discipline through your own personal insight.
Its through discipline and consistency that we begin to re-wire old ineffective habits and develop an effective mindset for trading markets. Doing something consistently also offers a bassline to compare and truly learn.
There is often resistance to this kind of responsibility. If you want to take up the guidelines of the practice, just step into it as much as your ready for and make it your own. This is not meant for you to follow my trades or worry about my method or setup. Its not important and besides, my setups lose most of the time anyways. Use your own method, there are plenty out there and work on making it as simple and objective as possible. I also suggest you start out sim trading this or using very small size.