XAUUSD Market Update – April 23, 2025“Bulls Are Alive, But Not Rushing – Gold Builds in Discount Trenches 🏗️🟢”
🔍 Macro + Context
HTF Bias: Still bullish. Daily candle shows strong rejection wick from below 3280 → bulls defending structure.
LTF Flow: Bearish → Clean CHoCH + BOS chain (H1–M15) from 3455 ATH zone → currently building base.
Current Price: ~3294
RSI: Starting to climb from oversold on M15–M30 → first hints of a potential shift.
📈 Confirmed Structural Updates
🔻 Sell Zones (Premium)
Zone Range Type Confluences
🔴 3450–3455 ATH Supply HTF OB + 1.618 Fibo Liquidity + Rejection Block
🔴 3414–3422 NY Session OB Retest Zone M30 OB + Last Reaction High
🟠 3380–3395 Flip Zone H1–M30 Rejection Block EMA Lock + FVG + CHoCH
🟢 Buy Zones (Discount)
Zone Range Type Confluences
🟢 3280–3288 LTF Demand Reentry Zone M5-M15 OB + Recent Wick Defense
💚 3220–3235 HTF Demand Stronger Demand Zone H4 OB + D1 EQ zone + Weekly Pivot
🔵 3170–3190 Extreme Discount Long-Term Zone Untapped FVG + D1 OB
⚙️ Current Price Action
📍Price rejected perfectly from the 3260s → defended with strong wick, now reclaiming M15 internal CHoCH.
🟣 M5 showing micro BOS + reclaim of 9EMA → potential for bullish continuation toward 3320–3333.
⚠️ Flip Zone at 3380–3395 remains a major short-term decision level. If price breaks above it, we’ll be in recovery mode toward 3415.
🎯 Session Outlook
Buyers in control short-term if price holds above 3280.
Next key reaction expected at 3320–3333 minor resistance → if broken, bulls might retest 3385+.
Sellers may reengage hard at 3380–3395 or above (3422, 3455).
🧠 Smart Money Snapshot
🟢 Liquidity swept below 3280 = engineered low
🟠 Internal CHoCH on M5 confirmed → LTF bullish short-term
🔴 Next sell interest likely around 3385 or 3415 unless HTF flips bullish again
XAUUSD – News & Risk Preview for April 24, 2025
Claims & Chaos?🧨📉📈
🔍 What’s Coming:
🧾 Unemployment Claims (USD) – 14:30 UTC+2
➤ Expected spike in volatility. Watch for algo-driven whipsaws if numbers surprise (especially under 200k or above 250k).
➤ Low claims = strong USD = potential XAU drop.
🧠 Tactical Advice for Thursday:
Avoid full-size entries→ spikes can violate structure briefly before returning.
Focus on reaction-based trades: let price show direction after the event, then join.
Best plan: pre-mark levels now, react later.
🗣️ Final Note
This market update reflects structure-only precision, no emotional bias. If bulls want back in, 3280–3290 is the launchpad. If not, sellers are watching 3385+ like hawks. 🦅
Beyond Technical Analysis
$BTC Tracks $GOLD Very Closely With 12-Week LeadCould it really be this simple?
Maybe we can just throw Global M2 out the window and track TVC:GOLD with a 12-Week Lead.
Someone pointed this out to me yesterday when I posted Gold's near 1/1 tracking with Global M2.
*Note the deviation in CRYPTOCAP:BTC PA from the ETF hype.
(ETH) ethereum "years - phases"The phase of the Ethereum chart in years using colors to represent each year and to visually show what happened during those years. So far this year is cold and losing. Will Ethereum recover and create a new pattern never before seen or will this entire year be in vain while wishing and hoping and believing that the price will turn itself around? The year of 2025 the year of AI.
The Journey of the Orange SunFrom whispers in the digital void in 2012
to the roaring crowd at $93,000 in 2025 —
Bitcoin’s arc bends not just toward price,
but toward a revolution written in blocks.
Each Fibonacci line is more than math —
it’s prophecy, patience, and power.
The chart doesn’t just show price;
it echoes belief.
Where others see candles,
I see constellations.
And we’re still charting the stars.
🚀📈
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoArt #ChartPoetry #FibLevels #BTCUSD
XBI-SPY overlay unravels great bear?Undead Bear Captain's Log, Apr 7 2025:
Writing some observations due to a lurking feeling of something ominous about to happen:
Bizarre signs in the wind since mid-March, such as VVIX/VIX
Sudden downslide last week, almost unprecedented
Minimal put action - bear breathen all obliterated
Overlay of infant XBI and adolescent SPY suggests 3 year rally was nothing more than smoke & mirrors
XBI bearish running flat?
SPY extreme expanded flat?
If true, this could sink ships - many many ships...
Out
MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/23/2025MES1!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/23/2025
📈 5512
📉 5440
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Geopolitical Cool-Down Sinks Gold, Trade AlertOn Wednesday, US President Donald Trump expressed disappointment over the Federal Reserve's sluggishness in cutting interest rates, but he made it clear that he would not fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, showing a more conciliatory attitude compared to before. Affected by this, coupled with the market's optimistic expectations of the easing of trade tensions, the US dollar strengthened, and gold was sold off. Spot gold plunged by nearly $120 at one point on Wednesday, tumbling sharply from the all-time high of $3,500 per ounce to $3,260, creating a rare volatility in recent years.
Currently, gold is fluctuating within the range of around $3,280-$3,290 and is still in a downward channel. Technically, the key support below lies in the area of around $3,260-$3,245. If this level is broken, the price may further decline towards the $3,200 mark.
XAUUSD
sell@3300-3305
tp:3280-3260
Investing doesn’t have to be stressful. With John’s professional one-on-one guidance, you’ll get data-driven strategies tailored to market conditions. Simply follow the clear plan, manage positions wisely, and avoid constant market-watching. Just a few disciplined trades per day can steadily grow your returns.
SILVER: Bulls Approaching the Red Zone in a DowntrendXAGUSD 8H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ⚙️
OVERALL TREND
📉 DOWNTREND — Price has been making lower highs since early April, and current action is approaching a critical SELL zone.
🔴RESISTANCE ZONE
🔴 34.5880 — PIVOT HIGH | Resistance (Major)
🔴 34.2779 — SELL ORDER 2
🔴 33.6503 — SELL ORDER 1
🎯ENTRIES & TARGETS
🎯 32.4555 — SELL ORDER & TP 1
🎯 31.4515 — SELL ORDER & TP 2 | Mid-Pivot
🎯 30.7102 — SELL ORDER & TP 3
🎯 29.5696 — EXIT SELL | TP 4
🟢SUPPORT LEVELS
🟢 29.7916 — BUY ORDER 1
🟢 28.6285 — BUY ORDER 2
🟡 28.5150 — PIVOT LOW| Support (Major)
✍️STRUCTURAL NOTES
Price is currently pushing up into a heavy resistance zone between 33.65 and 34.58.
Latest green candle taps a major SELL ORDER level — watch for a rejection pattern forming. Multiple pivot lows confirmed — but uptrend momentum appears weak within overall downtrend.
All short-term MAs (10–50 EMA/SMA) are signaling SELL. Only long-term MAs (100–200) still show bullish support.
📉OSCILLATOR SUMMARY
MACD, Momentum, and Awesome Oscillator — All bearish 🟥
RSI & Stoch RSI — Neutral, hovering mid-range
ADX at 11.00 — Weak trend strength, suggesting range or minor pullback ahead
TRADE OUTLOOK 🔎
📉 Watch for rejection from current level (33.65–34.27) — could trigger drop to TP1 or TP2
📈 Break and close above 34.58 could invalidate the current sell zone bias
👀 Best opportunities arise if price rejects cleanly from resistance with volume confirmation
🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION
SELL-THE-RIP (Swing Short Setup):
— Entry: 33.65 or 34.27
— TP Levels: 32.45 / 31.45 / 30.71
— SL: Above 34.60
CONSERVATIVE BULLISH SCALP:
— Entry: 29.79 or 28.62
— TP Levels: 30.71 / 31.45
— SL: Below 28.51
“Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™” — Let the levels do the talking 📉📈
BTCUSD Eyes Liquidity Sweep as Bulls Push Into Supply ZonesBTCUSD DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 📊
OVERALL TREND
📈 UPTREND — Momentum has surged, with multiple bullish candles breaking out above prior consolidation. Structure suggests a bullish continuation unless rejected at key resistance.
📉RESISTANCE ZONES
🔴 109,618.40 — PIVOT HIGH | Resistance Level
🔴 107,877.89 — SELL ORDER II
🔴 104,355.29 — SELL ORDER I
📈SUPPORT ZONES
🟢 102,576.04 — EXIT BUY | TP 4
🟢 96,169.15 — BUY ORDER | TP 3
🟢 92,012.50 — BUY ORDER | TP 2 | Mid-Pivot
🟢 86,027.66 — BUY ORDER | TP 1
🟢 79,908.44 — BUY ORDER II
🟢 76,167.19 — BUY ORDER I
🟢 74,406.60 — PIVOT LOW| Support Level
📊OSCILLATOR SIGNALS
RSI: 67.98 — Neutral, approaching overbought
MACD: 1,629.47 — 📈 Bullish crossover
Momentum: 10,006.19 — 📈 Strong upward push
Stoch RSI: 100.00 — 🔄 Extremely overbought, caution warranted
Williams %R: −5.30 — 🔻 Sell signal (overbought territory)
📈MOVING AVERAGES ALIGNMENT
All major EMAs & SMAs (10 through 200) are flashing BUY
HMA (9): 92,191.54 — supports current bullish thrust
Ichimoku Base: 84,535.45 — below price, further confirms bullish bias
🤓STRUCTURAL NOTES
BTCUSD has cleared a long-term pivot range with conviction — first time in over 2 months Price now testing supply zone between 102K and 104K
Break above 104K could trigger acceleration toward 107.8K and possibly 109.6K
Pullback scenarios would likely retest 96.1K or 92K (TP zones 2 & 3)
TRADE OUTLOOK 🔍
📈 Long bias remains strong above 92,012 with targets toward 107.8K and 109.6K
📉 Short-term profit-taking or rejections possible in 102.5K–104.3K zone
👀 Watch for confirmation of breakout or rejection from dynamic resistance at 109.6K
🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION
CONSERVATIVE BULLISH PLAY:
— Entry: 92,012.50
— TP Targets: 96,169 / 102,576 / 104,355
— SL: Below 86,027
AGGRESSIVE SWING SCALP:
— Sell Orders @ 104,355 or 107,877
— TP: 96,169 / 92,012
— SL: Above 109,618
“Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
GBPAUD Long 4/23/2025GBP/AUD Long Setup – Final Retest of Daily Support with Bullish Confirmation
Looking to go long on GBP/AUD after multiple confluences across timeframes suggest a strong bounce from key support.
Daily Chart:
Price continues to respect the 2.07500 support zone, which has held since April 9th. Today, we saw a sharp move back into that level with a strong wick rejection, suggesting a possible final retest before continuation.
4H Chart:
We’re 12 minutes from closing a bullish hammer, printing just above the daily support zone — a textbook signal of bullish strength returning from structure.
1H Chart:
Clear false breakout + inside bar combo, followed by a bullish hammer close, all occurring within the support zone. These are strong reversal signals, especially when aligned with higher timeframe structure.
News Context:
While GBP flash PMI data came in weak, price action tells a different story. The bullish hammer forming during the news candle suggests liquidity absorption, not continuation selling.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Around current levels above 2.075
Stop: Just below the 1H hammer (tight structure-based risk)
Target: 2.10815 — aligning with recent swing highs and the top of the range
Solid structure + clear invalidation = high-quality setup. If momentum holds, we could see a swift rotation back toward the highs.
USDCAD Short 4/23/2025USD/CAD Short Setup – Break of Daily Demand + Textbook Triangle Unwind
This short is built off both macro fundamentals and multi-timeframe technical precision.
Daily Chart:
USD/CAD has been steadily breaking structure to the downside. Yesterday's close was significant — we broke below a major daily demand zone at 1.38221, signaling a shift in longer-term sentiment.
Today’s price action has already retested yesterday’s high into that broken zone — a classic break-and-retest setup.
4H Chart:
A clear 5-wave triangle correction is printing — text-book stuff. We’re nearing the breakout point. Price is pressing against the lower boundary, and momentum looks ready to shift.
A potential Evening Star pattern is forming right now, supported by an inside bar and a follow-up bearish hammer — a stacked reversal signal.
1H Chart:
Structure confirms the 4H — all signs point toward a correction completing and a new impulsive leg down beginning.
Fundamentals:
Later today, the U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to show contraction — a negative for the dollar. If the data misses expectations, it could amplify the bearish move on USD/CAD.
We’re also tracking oil closely — further CAD strength via crude would accelerate the downside here.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Current area near the 1.382 retest
SL: Above triangle high
TP1: 1:1 R:R – partial take profit (75%)
TP2: Let the remaining 25% run with structure-based trailing
If the setup confirms post-PMI, this could be a strong follow-through play after a major HTF breakdown.
S&P 500 | SPX500USD: Bulls Find Support — But Is It Enough?SPX500USD 12H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🔍
OVERALL TREND
📈 UPTREND (Tentative) — Market structure appears to be attempting a reversal from a recent pivot low. However, the macro trend remains under pressure unless price clears the key resistance range above 5,950.
📉RESISTANCE
🔴 6,152.5000 — PIVOT HIGH | Dynamic Resistance Level
🔴 6,086.2943 — SELL ORDER II
🔴 5,952.1652 — SELL ORDER I
📊ENTRIES & TARGETS
🎯 5,884.4400 — EXIT BUY | TP 4
🎯 5,640.5683 — BUY ORDER | TP 3
🎯 5,482.3500 — BUY ORDER | TP 2 | Mid-Pivot
🎯 5,254.5432 — BUY ORDER | TP 1
📈SUPPORT
🟢 5,021.6218 — BUY ORDER
🟢 4,879.2150 — BUY ORDER II
🟢 4,812.2000 — PIVOT LOW | Dynamic Support Level
📊OSCILLATOR SUMMARY
🧭 RSI (14): 51.98 — Neutral
📉 MACD Level: -41.34 — Buy Bias Forming
🚀 Momentum (10): -36.21 — Positive Divergence Developing
📊 ADX (14): 21.08 — Early Trend Formation
📉 Awesome Oscillator: -87.21 — Bearish but Flattening
🧮MOVING AVERAGE SUMMARY
✅ 10/20/30 EMA & SMA — All Showing Buy Signals
❌ 50/100/200 EMA & SMA — Still Bearish, Suggesting Long-Term Pressure
📊 VWMA (20): 5,289.90 — Bullish Price Reaction Above VWMA
📏 Ichimoku Base Line: 5,158.19 — Neutral, Needs Further Validation
🤓STRUCTURAL NOTES
Current price is battling between 5,300–5,400 resistance range — a break and close above 5,482 could trigger further upside
Significant bullish reversal candle formed near the last pivot low at 4,812
Volume profile suggests re-accumulation; price attempting to reclaim 5,300 structure
Momentum indicators show signs of shifting bullish, but not yet in strong confirmation territory
TRADE OUTLOOK 🔎
📈 Bullish bias above 5,254 with targets at 5,482 / 5,640 / 5,884
📉 Bearish pressure reactivates if price rejects 5,482 and closes below 5,021
👀 Monitor ADX for trend confirmation — under 25 = caution; above 25 = trend validation
🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Reversal Play):
— Entry: 5,254.54
— Targets: 5,482.35 / 5,640.56 / 5,884.44
— SL: Below 5,021.62
HIGH-RISK SCALP (Resistance Fade):
— Sell Order near 5,952.16 or 6,086.29
— Targets: 5,640 / 5,482
— SL: Above 6,152.50
“Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience™”
Trump vs. Powell: 4d Gold Price Roller Coaster📊 Summary of Recent 4 Trading Days
During the ongoing US-China trade war, President Trump has ramped up his public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Though he lacks the authority to remove Powell directly it seems, Trump's frustration with the Fed’s independent policy direction has led to an apparent institutional power struggle.
This conflict hasn’t gone unnoticed by the markets. Just the mention of removing Powell caused the gold price to spike, as stock market money got squeezed out, amplified by tensions in the trade war. The Federal Reserve’s credibility is high, so such remarks naturally trigger significant volatility.
After Trump's initial outburst, gold surged $216. But when he softened his tone, the price reversed just as dramatically—falling about $240 (with the trading day still ongoing at the time). Hopes for progress in trade negotiations also played a role in this sharp reversal.
⚠️ Warning Signs of Market Distortion
Statements from the US President now function almost like market-moving events in addition to normal news. For gold traders, this creates an unstable environment where typical technical setups may fail.
The past days showed signs of manipulated or artificial movements—with potential insider activity. One notable example: Gold looked set to break higher after a 1-hour candle closed above the EMA 20 line. But a sudden $12 bearish candle in the last 30 seconds erased the setup. It felt orchestrated—possibly by institutional players defending key levels.
💡 Trader’s Takeaway
Don’t blindly trust technical signals in this environment.
Watch for political noise—it’s louder than usual.
Prefer quieter markets if you’re risk-averse.
Expect $100+ daily ranges and frequent price whipsaws.
🗣 What’s your take?
Is Trump really influencing the gold market on purpose—or just creating chaos? Let’s discuss below. 👇
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
Nasdaq 100 Prepares for Launch — Reclaiming Critical GroundNAS100 8H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 💻🧠
OVERALL TREND
📈 UPTREND — Structure is shifting bullish. Recent higher lows and strong rebounds from April lows confirm the current upward momentum. This is supported by 12/13 Moving Averages flashing BUY , including critical 50- and 200-period EMAs/SMA clusters. MACD and Momentum indicators also favor continued upside.
🔴 RESISTANCE ZONES
22,248.00 — 🔴 SELL STOPLOSS | Final Pivot High
21,955.77 — 🔴 SELL ORDER 2
21,364.19 — 🔴 SELL ORDER 1
🎯 TARGETS & BUY ORDERS
21,065.42 — 🎯 TP4 | EXIT THE RALLY
19,989.54 — 🎯 TP3 | Momentum confirmation
19,291.55 — 🎯 TP2 | Mid Pivot Zone
18,286.55 — 🎯 TP1 | Initial Profit Target
17,258.99 — ✅ BUY ORDER 1
16,630.74 — ✅ BUY ORDER 2
16,335.10 — ✅ BUY STOPLOSS | Pivot Low
🟢 SUPPORT STRUCTURE
PIVOT LOW @ 18,286 — Support holding for now
PIVOT LOW @ 17,258 — Strong confluence with previous structure
BUY ORDER zones between 16,330 – 17,258 — Demand cluster for reversals
🤓 STRUCTURAL NOTES
MACD shows bullish divergence with a rising histogram and crossover confirmation Momentum (+694) and RSI (66.69) suggest strength, though nearing overbought territory Price has reclaimed 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 MA levels — rare alignment of major trend confirmation
Only outlier: Hull MA (9) signaling short-term overextension — may suggest brief consolidation before continuation
🌍 GLOBAL TECHNICAL SUMMARY
📊 12 of 13 Major Moving Averages = BUY
📈 MACD & Momentum Oscillators = BUY
🧭 Majority of Oscillators = Neutral — supporting a “calm before breakout” thesis ⚖️ CCI shows slight overbought = caution near resistance zones
📉 No major bearish divergence detected — trend remains intact
TRADE OUTLOOK 🔎
📈 Bullish Bias above 18,286.55 (TP1) targeting 19,291.55 (TP2) and beyond
📉 Bearish rejection likely near 21,065+ if volume fades — monitor RSI/MACD
👀 Watch for volume confirmation as we approach 19,989.55
🧪 STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION
CONSERVATIVE BREAKOUT ENTRY:
— Entry: 18,286.55
— TP Levels: 19,291.55 / 19,989.55 / 21,065.42
— SL: Below 17,258.99
RISK-ON DIP BUY STRATEGY:
— Buy Zone: 16,630 – 17,258
— TP: 18,286.55 / 19,291.55
— SL: Below 16,335.10
“Discipline | Consistency | PAY-tience”
4/23 Gold Trading StrategyGold saw a sharp decline from 3500 to around 3360 yesterday, and our selling strategy delivered significant returns.
Over the weekend, Trump stated he has no intention to fire Powell and hinted at easing trade tensions. This quickly dampened market risk aversion, causing gold to plunge at the open today to near 3320. The downward momentum remains strong.
In this kind of market, flexibility is key. A sharp drop is usually followed by a rebound, but the strength of that rebound is what matters. Technically, the potential bounce is estimated at around $50, but whether the price continues to rise or resumes its decline will depend on how the market digests the news.
Technical levels (excluding news impact):
Key resistance: 3410–3440
Key support: 3328–3303
Considering the news:
Key resistance: 3346-3372
Key support: 3298–3268
Trading Strategy for Today:
Sell between 3410–3440
Buy between 3297–3267
Trade flexibly within 3386–3332 / 3296–3328
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/22/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/22/2025
📈18210 18365
📉17910 17760
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
Please like and share for more NQ levels Tues & Thurs 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Gold's Cup and Handle: Historical Analysis, post completionThe recent completion of a Cup and Handle pattern on Gold price action leaves an open question about the historical performance after such a technical formation plays out. While Cup and Handle patterns are generally considered bullish, there are legitimate historical reasons to question maintaining a long position after the pattern completes.
Pattern completion often marks exhaustion points
======================================
Historically, the completion of a Cup and Handle pattern indicates near term exhaustion of buying pressure rather than the beginning of a sustained move higher. This occurs because:
1) The pattern completion itself often represents the culmination of a buildup in speculative long positioning.
2) Technical traders who entered based on the pattern may take profits once their target is achieved.
3) The psychological milestone of completing the pattern can trigger selling from larger institutional players.
For example, the technical Bull flag of 2001 on completion saw a 40% following correction. Were that to happen on the Cup and Handle pattern upon completion price action would return to $1950
2001 Bull flag
Monetary policy transition periods
======================================
Historical analysis shows that gold's technical pattern reliability decreases significantly during periods of monetary policy transitions. If the Cup and Handle completion coincides with a shift in central back policy stance (particularly Federal Reserve policy), historical precedent suggest heightened risk of pattern failure.
Looking left, breakouts in the Bond market resulted in serious downside pressure for Gold price action, the Federal Reserve may not have a choice in the months ahead. Especially as the cost of servicing the debt grows and foreign entities increase Bond market selling pressure.
10 year Bond breakout
Conclusion
======================================
While the Cup and Handle pattern is traditionally viewed as bullish, historical data specific to gold markets suggest caution about maintaining long position immediately following pattern completion. The historical tendency toward mean reversion, pattern reliability concerns, volatility expansion, and correlation breakdowns all suggest that a more measured approach may be warranted.
Ww