Beyond Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Threat - Last chance is now! Or crash to 40k! (-63%)Bitcoin crashed by 12% in the past few days to 86,800, exactly to the last available support of the whole bull market! This is the last support; otherwise, the bull cycle is over, and we will have a tremendous crash to 40K in 2025/2026. So why is this the last support?
First, we need to look at the price action because bitcoin has been going sideways since November. We can clearly see an expanding triangle on the daily timeframe. Expanding triangles are very uncomfortable patterns for traders, as the whales take liquidity on both sides (buyers and sellers). And this is exactly what happened recently: Bitcoin crashed to 86.800 below the previous swing low and took all stop-loss orders from traders while remaining in the expanding triangle continuation pattern.
Bitcoin really cannot afford another crash; otherwise, the bears will break the expanding triangle, and the bull market will end. Bitcoin must go up right now! I am bullish until the end, and I still see that Bitcoin is in an uptrend. But if the price falls below 86,800, expect 40k later in 2025/2026, so this is the last chance!
What is also bullish? The price is still above the main green trendline. We want to see this trendline hold until the end of the bull market. From the Elliott Wave perspective, the price is starting last wave (5) to finish an impulse wave of higher degree. 125k is a significant resistance because of the 0.618 FIB extension. So, the threat is big for Bitcoin - 125k or 40k? Let me know in the comment section! (write 125k or 40k).
Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
USOIL - Short Trade (28th Feb 2025)This is a short trade idea on Crude Oil.
Basically, i'm not convinced of this sudden rejection. This is just manipulation to me. I want to target the liquidity resting below. I think we are going downtown to a monthly sSIBI at around 57.
Liquidity and efficiency rules the market. Everything else is nonsense.
- R2F Trading
FOOT LOCKER looks like it will make a run for $6.50 FL has been around for years but doesn't look great even though EBITDA is 3x Net Income.
Feels like FL can make a move back to $6.50 range. I would consider a long at that level and trade back to the $30.00 range what the tangible book value is as of 2/27/2025
There is a 4-5x return from $6 in FL.
General Market Analysis - SMC Point of ViewIn this video I go through an analysis of DXY, EURUSD, USDCHF, OIL, and BTC. I also delve into why I think some short-term manipulation is happening and share my narrative.
I am not fond of giving a long description here when I give my analysis in the video, so please enjoy and share your thoughts.
- R2F Trading
Market Update & Crypto OutlookMarket Update & Crypto Outlook
Tariffs & Economic Impact
Trump is leveraging tariffs as a negotiation tactic to pressure adversaries into deals. While Europe is reluctant to concede outright, they have little choice. These tariffs are shaking the markets, and we all know how sensitive elites are about their portfolios. By hitting them where it hurts—their wallets—Trump is forcing them to the table.
In my opinion, this strategy will work. Over time, Europe, Ukraine, and even China will likely agree to compromises. As these agreements unfold, market uncertainty (FUD) will ease, restoring investor confidence.
Inflation & Market Sentiment
Markets are pricing in expected quantitative tightening , meaning no interest rate cuts for at least two years. However, I don’t believe tariffs will fuel inflation as much as feared. Reduced government spending and a stronger USD could offset price increases, maintaining purchasing power without printing money.
Until markets realize this, we’ll see uncertainty, but inflation numbers may not be as catastrophic as expected , helping stabilize sentiment.
Crypto & Market Cycle
The bull market isn’t over, but Bitcoin finally experienced real consolidation —without heavy ETF purchases propping it up. The ETF FOMO is over , and that’s actually a good thing. Now, Bitcoin can continue its rally naturally , setting up for its final, most parabolic leg.
Altcoins & The Spark for Altseason
As I mentioned before, a strong dollar combined with the upcoming $5,000 stimulus checks will ignite true altseason . This influx of cash will likely fuel a major altcoin rally later this year , after the new administration distributes the payments.
Conclusion
Yes, it’s been painful—altcoins are bleeding, portfolios are down, and sentiment is low. But capitulation marks the bottom .
Expect a bumpy March , but April and especially May* could be parabolic , making today’s struggles a distant memory. 🚀
(Everything is on the chart, check the arrows)
XLM stellar Stellar down -60% since hitting a recent peak last November. The length of time following the mega candle in regards to the label and standing of XLM is a bit reductive when the price should be capable of doing better than losing so much. How is Stellar still this weak and lacking a great deal of support,. When is the $1.00 XLM coming,.
(BTC) bitcoin "its nothing"People are wasting their time with bugging out about the price of BTC losing. It's nothing. The price lost like -12%. If someone bought at the peak the price is down like -25%. Compared to all the super inconsistent tokens, memes, and thought bubbles of people creating small and micro cap strategies behind cryptocurrency others. Cryptocurrency has a problem with all the ideas following the movement and price of BTC. Either the people who invest in BTC are also heavily invested in alt coins, tokens and memes, or the real truth; there is no way large institutional banks are invested in most of the tokens. Tokens should not be so easily knocked down. How many years are we going to see the inconsistency of tokens and alt coins before the world of cryptocurrency investors remove the framework where people tend to believe BTC controls the prices and movements of all cryptocurrency. BTC lost a tiny amount compared to the larger losses continually accruing by miniscule cryptocurrency market caps.
Bitcoin is Dead for upcoming Weeks soon 92K will break and DumpWe are looking for next phase dump here as soon as possible major support which is 93K$ support zone had about 7 touches and soon this support will not be able to handle and pump the price any more because buyers are getting weaker and also less each time and also after that major fall will start and we may have targets like 80K$ or even 73K$.
Also remember double top on daily will be complete after breakout of neckline which is 93K$ breakout.
DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision))
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EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
The EUR/USD pair is still struggling with the identified resistance zone and has been rejected multiple times from this level. Given the current market structure and the formed pattern, a corrective move toward the identified support area is expected. After completing the correction, the price is likely to resume its upward movement toward higher resistance levels.
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