Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

What Lies Beyond the Cornfield's Horizon?The narrative of corn in the global agricultural scene is not merely about sustenance but a complex ballet of economics, innovation, and policy. This staple crop stands at the intersection of international trade, with U.S. farmers gaining a foothold in Mexico's market through a significant legal victory against GMO corn restrictions, highlighting the nuanced dance between technology and trade agreements. Meanwhile, Brazil's agricultural strategies reveal a shift towards leveraging corn for ethanol, showcasing a potential future where corn could play an even more pivotal role in sustainable energy solutions. In science and technology, the development of digital corn twins presents a frontier in crop breeding. This innovative approach could redefine how we think about plant resilience and efficiency, potentially leading to crops tailored to withstand the capricious whims of climate change. The challenge lies in translating theoretical models into practical, field-ready solutions that can benefit farmers and consumers alike. However, the journey isn't without its threats. The unexpected rise of corn leaf aphids in 2024 serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing battle with nature's unpredictability. Farmers are now challenged to anticipate and manage these pests, pushing the boundaries of traditional farming practices into more predictive, data-driven methodologies. This situation beckons a broader inquiry into how agriculture can evolve not just to react but preemptively adapt to ecological shifts. As we look beyond the cornfield's horizon, we see a landscape where policy, technology, and biology converge. The future of corn involves navigating this triad with foresight, ensuring that each step taken today not only secures current yields but also plants the seeds for a sustainable agricultural legacy. This exploration into corn's evolving role invites us to ponder how we can harness these developments for a future where food security and environmental stewardship walk hand in hand.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by UDIS_View
GBPCAD Trade IdeaI'm sharing this trade idea based on recent developments: Oil Price Decline: Falling oil prices typically weaken the Canadian Dollar (CAD), as Canada is a major oil exporter. Trump's Presidency: Donald Trump being elected as the 47th President of the United States could bolster the GBP, especially considering his political stance on global trade and policies. While Trump has made comments about integrating Canada with the U.S., I don't believe this will have an immediate impact on this trade. ⚠️ Risk Warning: This setup carries a high level of systemic risk due to the uncertainties surrounding these geopolitical events. Let’s see how this plays out!
Short
by MasoudEskandari
Commodities: 2024 Performance vs. 2025 OutlookBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst Below is an analysis of the commodities that performed best in 2024 and those expected to lead in 2025. Top Performers in 2024 1. Gold: Supported by global economic uncertainty, gold demonstrated strong performance as a safe-haven asset, with prices averaging $2,000 per ounce. 2. Copper: Economic recovery and the boom in renewable energy drove demand, reaching record highs in some markets. 3. Cocoa: Adverse weather conditions in West Africa limited production, pushing prices to record levels. 4. Natural Gas: After a weak start in 2023, natural gas rebounded due to a colder-than-expected winter in Europe and Asia. Expected Top Performers in 2025 1. Copper: Electrification and the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) position copper as a key winner, with expectations of new record highs. 2. Silver: Its use in technology and renewable energy, particularly in solar panels, is expected to boost demand. 3. Coffee: Climate instability in Latin America, coupled with sustained demand, could keep prices elevated. 4. Nickel: Growing battery production for EVs makes nickel a critical metal for 2025. Comparison: Performance and Outlook Table Category Commodity/ 2024 Performance/ 2025 Outlook/ Key Drivers for 2025 Precious Metals/ Gold /Excellent/ Stable-Bullish / Inflation, safe-haven demand Industrial Metals/ Copper / Excellent/ Bullish / Electrification, renewable energy Industrial Metals/ Silver / Good/ Bullish / Technology, renewable energy Industrial Metals/ Nickel / Good/ Bullish / EV battery production Agricultural Products/ Cocoa / Excellent/ Stable / Weather, production stability Agricultural Products/ Coffee / Good/ Stable-Bullish / Weather, global demand Energy/ Natural Gas / Good/ Stable /Weather, Asian demand Energy/ Crude Oil / Stable/ Stable-Volatile / OPEC+ policies, economic recovery Energy/ Coal / Fair/ Bearish / Energy transition Conclusion The performance of commodities in 2024 was driven by economic recovery and climate factors. In 2025, the energy transition will remain a key driver, benefiting metals like copper, silver, and nickel. In contrast, fossil fuels such as coal may face significant challenges due to global decarbonization policies. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:GOLD
by ActivTrades
My projection didn't changeI still keep it LONG-Term for 1H-4H. The big difference is that the price pump without a very good liquidity, for that particular reason couldn't break ATH(all time high). This time I'll wait once more for taking the bottom liquidity to going to target 3. If the price start to pump again, without take the liquidity of the bottom, gonna be long but just until near ATH max. The only way to break ATH without take the liquidity of the bottom is with a good fundamental, could be lower tax interest from USA dep of economy, Trump alleging about crypto and specifically bitcoin, or other potencial news that satisfy the wallet of the market maker and big whales. Pretty Much it... Wolf Champions!!!
Long
by Wolf_Champions
YINN to the Moon? Here’s Why We’re Bullish!💥 YINN is setting up for what looks like a textbook breakout moment, and we’re here for it! 📈 With a combination of strong market momentum, improving sentiment in the Chinese economy, and a solid technical setup, this triple-leveraged China ETF is catching fire. 🔥 Why YINN is a Strong Play: 1️⃣ China's Economic Recovery: Recent policy shifts suggest that the Chinese government is ramping up its support for growth sectors. We see this fueling positive momentum across the index. 2️⃣ Technical Momentum: YINN is riding above key support levels, and it’s flirting with the top of its trading channel. A break could signal a rocket launch 🚀. 3️⃣ Global Macro Trends: With cooling inflation globally and easing U.S.-China tensions, risk-on assets like YINN are primed for gains. 📊 The Chart Speaks for Itself!
AMEX:YINNLong
by Blakeeml
Trump next big rally to $200+identified previous bull flags, and using fib retracement revealed new trump price to pump to $200+ etf for trump coin filed. with executive orders to reduce elations on crypto, etf may be approved at time when trump coins are unlocked in April. ETF approval means a ticker symbol for trump coin on the NYSE and nasdaq, and ETF issuers like black rock, fidelity, and grayscale will need to buy and hold a SIGNIFICANT amount of trump coins. executive orders signed by trump will allow financial institutions to accept crypto payments. Another bullish event.
Long
by chadherrella
Ralph Lauren: Elevate Your Wealth with the Essence of Luxury◉ Abstract Ralph Lauren is thriving in the booming luxury apparel market. The company, founded in 1967, has a market cap of $11.83 billion and generates nearly 44% of its revenue from North America, totaling $2.93 billion. The industry is valued at approximately $110.13 billion in 2024 and projected to reach $151.32 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 6.56%. Recent technical analysis shows Ralph Lauren's stock has outperformed the NYSE Composite index with a 66% annual return. Despite a slight revenue increase of 2.9% year-on-year, EBITDA soared to $1,024 million, reflecting strong financial health. With a current P/E ratio of 17.4x, Ralph Lauren presents an attractive investment opportunity amidst rising global wealth and consumer demand for luxury goods. Read full analysis here . . . ◉ Introduction The global luxury apparel market is currently experiencing significant growth, driven by various factors including increasing disposable incomes, brand loyalty, and the rising influence of social media on consumer behaviour. Here’s a detailed overview of the market size and growth outlook: ◉ Current Market Size According to Mordor Intelligence, the global luxury apparel market was valued at approximately USD 110.13 billion in 2024, with expectations to grow to USD 151.32 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 6.56%. ◉ Growth Drivers ● Increasing Wealth: The rising number of millionaires globally and growing middle-class affluence, particularly in regions like Asia-Pacific, are significant contributors to luxury apparel demand. ● Consumer Trends: There is a growing perception that luxury goods enhance social status, which fuels consumer interest in high-end fashion. ● Digital Influence: Enhanced online shopping experiences and the effective use of social media for marketing have opened new avenues for luxury brands to reach consumers. ◉ Regional Insights ● Europe Dominant Market: Holds a market share of approximately 34% to 43%. The presence of numerous luxury brands and high purchasing power among consumers drive demand, supported by significant tourist spending on luxury goods. ● North America Strong Demand: The U.S. is a key player, characterized by a wealthy consumer base and increasing brand loyalty, particularly among younger generations who view luxury items as status symbols. ● Asia-Pacific Fastest Growing Market: Anticipated to grow rapidly due to rising disposable incomes and brand awareness, especially in countries like China and India. ● Latin America Emerging Potential: Currently holds a smaller market share but shows promise for growth as consumer awareness and travel increase. ● Middle East & Africa Limited Contribution: This region contributes the least to the luxury apparel market, although countries like the UAE are seeing growth due to tourism. The overall outlook for the luxury apparel market remains optimistic, supported by evolving consumer preferences and increasing global wealth. Amidst the global luxury apparel market's promising growth prospects, we have identified Ralph Lauren as a prime opportunity for investment. With its robust financial performance and impressive technical indicators, Ralph Lauren is well-positioned to propel success. ◉ Company Overview Ralph Lauren Corporation NYSE:RL is a renowned American fashion company known for its high-quality, luxury lifestyle products. Founded in 1967 by the iconic designer Ralph Lauren, the company has become a global symbol of timeless style and sophistication. The company offers a wide range of products, including apparel, footwear, accessories, home goods, fragrances, and hospitality. Ralph Lauren's iconic polo shirt and strong brand identity have contributed to its success, making it a global leader in the luxury fashion industry. ◉ Investment Advice 💡 Buy Ralph Lauren Corporation NYSE:RL ● Buy Range - 190 - 193 ● Sell Target - 245 - 250 ● Potential Return - 27% - 30% ● Approx Holding Period - 8-10 months ◉ Market Capitalization - $11.83 B ◉ Peer Companies ● Tapestry NYSE:TPR - $10.59 B ● Levi Strauss NYSE:LEVI - $8.57 B ● PVH Corp. NYSE:PVH - $5.44 B ● Columbia Sportswear Company NASDAQ:COLM - $4.87 B ◉ Relative Strength The chart clearly illustrates that Ralph Lauren has greatly outperformed the NYSE Composite index, achieving an impressive annual return of 66%. ◉ Technical Aspects ● Monthly Chart ➖ The monthly chart clearly shows that the stock price faced several rejections near the 190 level, which ultimately triggered a significant drop, brought the price down to the 66 level. ➖ Afterward, the price experienced various fluctuations and, after a prolonged consolidation phase, developed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. ➖ Upon breaking out, the price surged upward but encountered resistance again at the previous resistance zone. ➖ However, after a pullback, the stock has successfully surpassed this resistance for the first time in almost 11 years. ● Daily Chart ➖ On the daily chart, the price has formed a Rectangle pattern following a brief consolidation phase and has recently made a breakout. ➖ If the price can hold above the 190 level, we can expect a bullish movement in the coming days. ◉ Revenue Breakdown - Location Wise Ralph Lauren Corporation is a global luxury brand with a strong presence in various regions. ➖ North America remains Ralph Lauren's biggest market, contributing nearly 44% of its total revenue, which amounts to $2.93 billion. ➖ In Europe , the brand is seeing consistent growth, with revenue reaching around $2 billion, making up about 30% of total earnings. ➖ Asia , especially China, is becoming a key player for Ralph Lauren, generating approximately $1.58 billion, or 24% of total revenue. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● Year-on-year ➖ In the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a modest revenue increase of 2.9%, totaling $6,631 million, compared to $6,443 million in the prior year. ➖ On the other hand, EBITDA growth has been remarkable, soaring to $1,024 million from $801 million in FY23. The current EBITDA margin stands at an impressive 15.5%. ➖ Additionally, diluted earnings per share (EPS) experienced a substantial year-over-year rise of 28%, reaching $9.71 in FY24, up from $7.58 in FY22. ● Quarter-on-quarter ➖ In terms of quarterly performance, the company reported a decline in sales over the last three quarters, with the most recent quarter showing sales of $1,512 million, down from $1,568 million in March 2024 and $1,934 million in December 2023. ➖ Nevertheless, EBITDA demonstrated significant growth in the June quarter, climbing to $265 million from $176 million in March 2023. ◉ Valuation ● P/E Ratio ➖ Current P/E Ratio vs. Median P/E Ratio The current price-to-earnings ratio for this stock stands at 17.4x, which is notably elevated compared to its four-year median P/E ratio of 5.7x. This suggests that the stock is presently overvalued. ➖ Current P/E vs. Peer Average P/E When evaluating the stock's Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 17.4x, it shows a more attractive valuation, as it is lower than the peer average of 25.5x. ➖ Current P/E vs. Industry Average P/E RL is positioned at a more appealing price point, with a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 17.4x, which is significantly less than the US Luxury industry's average of 19.x. ● P/B Ratio ➖ Current P/B vs. Peer Average P/B The current P/B ratio reveals that the stock is considerably higher than its peers, with a ratio of 5x compared to the peer average of 3x. ➖ Current P/B vs. Industry Average P/B In comparison to the industry average, RL's current P/B ratio of 5x indicates that it is substantially overvalued, as the industry average is only 2.2x. ● PEG Ratio A PEG ratio of 0.54 suggests that the stock is undervalued relative to its expected earnings growth. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis In fiscal year 2024, operational cash flow experienced remarkable growth, reaching $1,069 million, a substantial increase from $411 million in fiscal year 2023. ◉ Debt Analysis The company currently holds a long term debt of $1,141 million with a total equity of $2,367 million, makes long-term debt to equity of 48%. ◉ Top Shareholders ➖ The Vanguard Group has significantly increased its investment in this stock, now owning an impressive 8.23% stake, which marks a 3.9% rise since the end of the March quarter. ➖ Meanwhile, Blackrock holds a stake of around 4.11% in the company. ◉ Conclusion After a thorough evaluation, we find that Ralph Lauren Corporation is strategically poised to thrive in the expanding luxury apparel market, driven by increasing disposable incomes and a growing appetite for high-end products.
NYSE:RLLong
by NaranjCapital
SPY at a Crossroads: Key Levels and Options Strat for Max ProfitAnalysis and Trade Plan for SPY Based on the 1-Hour Chart SPY is trading within a well-defined ascending channel, reflecting bullish momentum. However, key resistance at 607.82—backed by strong Gamma Exposure (GEX)—poses a critical decision point for traders. Here's a detailed breakdown of potential moves and strategies: Key Levels to Watch: 1. Resistance: * 607.82: Current high and GEX resistance. * 610-612: Psychological level and channel extension. 2. Support: * 605: Minor support within the trend. * 599.56: Major support zone highlighted by GEX and channel lower boundary. Momentum Indicators: * MACD: Bearish crossover, signaling potential short-term weakness. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought and turning downward, suggesting a possible pullback. * Volume: Moderate, with no strong conviction near resistance. Trade Plan for 1-Hour Chart Bullish Setup (Breakout Above 607.82): * Entry: Above 607.82, confirmed by strong volume. * Target: 610 and 612 (upper channel resistance). * Stop-Loss: Below 605. Bearish Setup (Breakdown Below 605): * Entry: Below 605, confirmed by increasing bearish volume. * Target: 599.56 and potentially 595 (lower support). * Stop-Loss: Above 606. Options Strategies Based on GEX (5-7 DTE) The GEX levels provide critical insights into market dynamics, with 607 acting as a strong resistance zone and 600 as a key support. Utilizing options expiring in 5-7 days (Jan 30, 2025), we can position trades for both bullish and bearish scenarios while minimizing the impact of time decay. Bullish Option Strategy: * Buy Call: * Strike: 607 (ATM) or 605 (slightly ITM). * Expiry: Jan 30, 2025. * Entry: On a confirmed breakout above 607.82. * Target: Resistance at 610-612. * Stop-Loss: If SPY falls below 605. Bearish Option Strategy: * Buy Put: * Strike: 600 or 599 (slightly OTM). * Expiry: Jan 30, 2025. * Entry: On a confirmed breakdown below 605. * Target: Support at 599.56 and potentially 595. * Stop-Loss: If SPY climbs back above 606. Why 5-7 DTE Options? * Lower Theta Decay: Allows trades to develop over a few days without rapid value loss. * Controlled Risk: More time to adjust positions or exit with minimal losses. * Flexibility: Captures both intraday moves and multi-day trends. Trading Tip: Stay Flexible While the 1-hour chart shows bullish momentum, the negative skew (-17.9%) and GEX resistance at 607 suggest caution. Monitor price action closely at key levels, and don’t hesitate to switch bias if the market conditions change. Conclusion:
SPY’s price action and GEX levels highlight critical opportunities for breakout or pullback trades. Use a combination of chart-based entries and 5-7 DTE options to maximize profit potential while minimizing risk. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚨
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
May TSLA, CRSH and burn in Gehinnom - My Short Against TSLAToday, I will be fully committing to a long-term mutli-asset short against TSLA, albeit using a non-conventional approach. Rather than simply short selling TSLA shares and going into debt, I plan to hold, maintain and build positions in CRSH, TSLQ, TSLL, and TSLY using a combination of share and option spread in both directions. Taking advantage of the speculative, high volatility nature of this massively overpriced stock and reinvesting those short term profits, whenever the technicals and fundamentals are in favor of a short. It's important to remember, that short positions should be generally be short term, and maintaining them is more about managing risk, position size and dynamic hedging than it is about fundamentals, technicals or even sentiment on the company and people For example, I currently have Bull Put Spread on TSLL, which is a bullish leveraged ETF on TSLA, the credit from this position funds the purchase of shares in CRSH, which is 1x short on TSLA and pays a monthly dividend. Depending on the price movement and the greek changes on the options, I can close the short put legs or exercise the long puts, going short shares on a leveraged bullish etf... Furthermore, I've done the math and the dividend from TSLY or CRSH can offset either the losses from the options on the short end of the trade or pay margin maintenance on CRSH or TSLQ whenever I choose to increase/decrease the pressure of the overall long-short portfolio . I won't go into further specifics on the proprietary short portfolio I plan to build against TSLA over the next 4 years, however I will state this is not purely emotional. Using the Kelly Criterion, the ETFs mentioned, the dividend as well as options spreads will give me a very wide net to cast in order to chokeout this Neo-Nazi company to the ground. When it comes to "hidden fundamentals" and macro economics related to a TSLA Short, it's entirely possible that the US trade war may result in the German Giga factory being shut down entirely . German Criminal Code (§ 86 and § 86a StGB) could be applied to Elon Musk as well as his employees at the German TSLA plant as it explcitly prohibits dissemination of Means of Propaganda of Unconstitutional Organizations, Use of Symbols of Unconstitutional Organizations. This law explicitly prohibits the sharing of people, groups, and organization utilizing pro-nazi salutes such as the one display by Elon. Video of using these symbols to glorify unconstitutional organization weren't just shared widely on the propaganda site X, but were likely shared among TSLA employees in Germany... There is also the very serious issue of Elon Musk has directly funding far-right political organizations, including the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is under surveillance by German domestic intelligence for suspected extremist activities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has publicly condemned Musk’s association with such groups, describing it as "completely unacceptable" and a direct challenge to Germany’s democratic values. Any additional threats of sanction against Germany, the EU may only serve to motivate German politicians to enforce these laws against TSLA. This factory has production rate of 5,000 vehicles per week in March 2023, which if you've ever read Elon's book, you'd understand the strategic importance of this goal and this factory. Beyond this, there are in fact several other smoking guns in the German factory, including but not limited to the use of unlicensed commercial software, used to operate TSLA's commercial hardware. Brownie points if you can spot this in the public video "Flying Through Giga Berlin". Though this video is 2 years old, it is never the less, video evidence of TSLA's violations of multiple German laws beyond the one mentioned above. Though it remains to be seen exactly to what extent these issues, if any have been resolved to date. I have no obligation to disclose or update people on this position. However, I plan to post most article on these assets throughout the year.
AMEX:CRSH
by livingdracula
Reading Time-Layered Liquidity for Trading and InvestingShaking out some variables in understanding Time-Layered Liquidity and how to use them for trading and investing. Start out wide in Monthly periods slowly zooming to minutes to give you a nuansesd view of market direction and possible entries. I like to start with accumulation periods in tight or illiquid markets, look at months and days, then slowly as the price rises we trade shorter time periods as we trade smaller/higher time periods(frames) looking at hourly then minutes. Remember every Ticker/Security is going to have lots of affecting factors, i.e the index it's in, yields, data anoucements, and underlying hedging. Trade fewer securities, learn the factors that affect them.
SPREADEX:NDX
by brucegibbs
PLTR: Key Levels and Technical Insights. Jan. 23Trading Analysis: * Trend: PLTR is currently recovering strongly from a downtrend, moving above significant resistance levels. * Key Levels: * Support: $73.00 * Resistance: $79.96, $80.06 (major resistance wall). * Indicators: * MACD: Bullish crossover indicates potential continuation of momentum. * Stochastic RSI: Overbought but showing signs of potential divergence, which could slow the rally. * Volume: Recent spikes in volume reinforce bullish sentiment. GEX Option Insights: * Gamma Wall: Highest positive NETGEX at $76, acting as a key resistance level. * Call Walls: * $76.04: Immediate resistance. * $80.06: Significant upside target. * Put Walls: * $70.00: Support zone. * $69.00-$68.00: Key levels for downside protection. * IV Analysis: * IVR: 86.1 * IVx: Averaging 75.4, indicating options are actively traded but not excessively priced. Actionable Trade Scenarios: 1. Bullish Setup: * Entry: Above $76.50 * Target: $79.96 - $80.06 * Stop-Loss: Below $74.50 2. Bearish Setup: * Entry: Below $73.00 * Target: $70.00 * Stop-Loss: Above $75.00 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research and manage risk responsibly.
NASDAQ:PLTR
by BullBearInsights