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Beyond Technical Analysis

Comcast Web CastA web of potential zones of influence and 3 curves that might act as support and/or resistance. Looking for consolidations at the elements, breaks, and perhaps one important inflection point at one of them. The main scenario follows the path of the rectangles, but hopefully they are designed well enough so that if the path of the stock price deviates into anything else, we might see a pivot or other developments (: bounce) at the most important of them all which can be either of them depending on the evolutions.
NASDAQ:CMCSA
by nen
ALGO 4-hour .. Trade Long in progressI figured this one out a day or two ago. Placed an order in for the long position. I am now active in the trade. Even if it goes lower I will just stay in the trade. I see ALGO going upwards for another run. Yeah so... risky as it may seem, I guessed purely on historical support area and 50% drop from recent ATH. I am going with the trade, "Buy the dip" philosophy. Buying in, on the way down. It is possible that, if the market in whole, continues a down hill march... ALGO will probably reach the 20 cent area. .. Then 15 and 10 cent areas. Highly unlikely, however it still could happen, nothing is guaranteed.
COINBASE:ALGOUSDLong
by Quartz-
Is the Top In? Bitcoin's Diminishing ReturnsMany of us have seen the Bitcoin Rainbow chart before. Right now, it implies that there is still room for another leg higher. According to Blockchain Center's 2023 chart , the 'Is this a bubble?' price range is around $111,914 to $143,429. However, we also see the highs diminish over time. The first peak is outside of 'Maximum Bubble Territory,' the second reaching the same area, and the third hitting 'Sell. Seriously, SELL.' While this pattern suggests BTC may only reach 'Is this a bubble?' or 'FOMO intensifies' this cycle, there's another pattern that indicates 'HODL' might be as far as it goes. In the logarithmic chart above, we can see that BTC's price follows a pattern of diminishing returns. It has moved from low to high as follows (rounded): 1. 2010/2011: 0.01 to 31.91 = 3,191x 2. 2011/2013: 1.99 to 1,242 = 624x 3. 2015/2017: 162 to 19,785 = 122x 4. 2018/2021: 3,125 to 68,977 = 22x 5. 2022/2024: 15,479 to 108,367 = 7x That means the multipliers from low to high have decreased with the following factors: 624.12 ÷ 3,191 ≈ 0.1957 (a 5.10x factor decrease) 122.09 ÷ 624.12 ≈ 0.1955 (a 5.11x factor decrease) 22.07 ÷ 122.09 ≈ 0.1809 (a 5.52x factor decrease) 7.00 ÷ 22.07 ≈ 0.3170 (a 3.15x factor decrease) The most recent bullish run appears to be an outlier; if there'd been a 5.52x factor decrease from 22.07, that would've meant a rough 4x (22.07 ÷ 5.52) from the low, or a peak of 61,916. There are multiple ways to interpret this pattern, and why it may or may not be holding this time around: On the bullish side: It's 'different' this cycle A pro-crypto Trump administration/SEC chair shifts fundamentals Growing legitimisation of BTC in institutional and regulatory circles More funds flowing in via BTC ETFs Currency debasement means more demand for BTC The Rainbow chart indicates there's more room to grow The halving pattern is still playing out Search interest is below previous peaks on Google Trends , implying more potential interest On the bearish side: The culmination of bullish fundamental factors has overextended the pattern (much like how RSI can show an asset overbought for a long time before an eventual correction) A risk-on year for assets more broadly has dragged BTC up with it, taking it past the established pattern A larger market cap makes it harder to continue expanding exponentially as the market matures. BTC's market cap is $1.8t right now. There is diminishing marginal demand—those already interested in BTC have bought in, reducing the pool of potential buyers The Fear and Greed index has already reached levels see in previous peaks, like 2021 The feverishness surrounding meme coins is reminiscent of previous bubbles, like the ICO bubble and Dotcom bubble Discussion I think there are strong arguments to be made on both sides. On one hand, it's true that it really might be different this time around. There's certainly more institutional adoption and regulatory clarity than ever before, with Trump even talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve. There weren't Bitcoin ETFs in previous cycles, and the halving pattern suggests a peak usually around 1-1.5 years later; it's only been 8 months since the halving in April. While the dollar will likely get stronger under Trump (potentially weakening BTC), there is the argument that weakening purchasing power in many countries is driving entities towards 'hard' assets, like gold, silver, and Bitcoin. Then there is the room for more retail investors to participate, given search results for ' Bitcoin ' and ' buy Bitcoin ' are lower than previous highs (though I will note that 2021 was also lower than 2017). Lastly, while the Rainbow chart does show diminishing peaks, it does suggest we could still hit 'Is this a bubble?' or higher. On the other hand, this recent run to $100k+ was mostly fueled by Trump's election win and his backing of crypto-friendly Paul Atkins for SEC chair. BTC jumped from around $69k on the day of the election—a bit above the top projected by the factor decrease pattern—and Trump's win may have temporarily distorted the pattern. It is also possible that the market is reaching maturity. Assuming that BTC will move to $250k in 2025 as some predict, its market cap would be around $4.9t. That would put it above Apple's market cap of $3.775t but still decently below gold's $17.6t . However, there's a reason gold is the most valuable asset in the world by market cap: it has historical, cultural, and social significance. Its durability and lustre meant it was used to decorate temples in ancient times and as a symbol of divinity. Over time, that led to it being valued as currency in ancient empires and eventually backing the dollar. In contrast, Bitcoin is relatively young; while feasible that it could eventually overtake gold and still remarkable that it's achieved such a large market cap in around 15 years, it does beg the question if $250k would be too far, too soon. After all, central banks are hoarding gold right now, not Bitcoin. This ties in with the reducing marginal demand for BTC. Those who already believe in its potential have bought in; while the number of participants is likely to go up over time, there don't seem to be many catalysts for many more to join in the near-term (besides rumours of a strategic BTC reserve). 2017 was the first time BTC really went mainstream. Alongside relatively low interest rates and a weak dollar, FOMO drove the rally; BTC jumped more than 20x that year. 2021 was similar; cheap money, pandemic boredom, a broader awareness of crypto, and FOMO, pushed BTC to new ATHs. Looking ahead to 2025, there appear to be more bearish catalysts than bullish. Most notable is a Fed worried about inflation and whether it's appropriate to pause easing of rate cuts ( Deutsche Bank expects no cuts in 2025 , which while a bit extreme, is indication of the current state of affairs). At the time of writing, that's already pushed BTC down to GETTEX:92K from $108k. There is a US stock market that has risen over 60% since the start of 2023, compared to an average annual return of around 10-11% since 1980. There's also the promise of inflationary tariffs, discretionary spending cuts, rising yields, etc. all of which are the opposite of bullish signals. Combined with the Fear and Greed index hitting 94 in November (just under the 95 peak in early 2021, late 2021 saw peaks of 74) and extraordinary runup in memecoins recently—Fartcoin is worth $1.25 billion right now, up from $40 million at the end of October—the vibes are feeling a bit toppy. Conclusion In my opinion and on the balance of probabilities, the combination of the currently-overextended diminishing returns pattern and the fundamental factors described skews Bitcoin bearish from here. There are certainly many counter-arguments to be made and I respect the fact that markets can stay irrational for a long, long time and I could be completely wrong (along with the fact I have my own biases). But, I do think it's at least difficult for me to be bullish or buy into Bitcoin here. The risk-reward isn't great; maybe a 2x is achievable, and that also possibly explains a lack of further retail interest and the pump in meme coins recently. As an aside, it's interesting that this pattern would theoretically continue to produce diminishing returns until the multiplier eventually reaches near-zero. I don't think that would be how it works in reality, but it does indicate that Bitcoin could reach a ceiling as cycles continue. Does that imply the pattern has to break at some point, or that there is a true 'natural' high for BTC? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks for reading. Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this information. The opinions expressed are solely those of the author and are based on current data and analysis, which may not be accurate or complete. Always conduct your own research.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by pasojov
1
Bitcoin Santa Rally My view for year-end rally in Bitcoin is based on seasonal and global liquidity (GLI) My projection for the Treasury General Account (TGA) is an increase from $740B today to a peak of $880B on 12/17 (which will be negative for Bitcoin and assets) and then a decrease (positive liquidity) of $200+ Billion down to a low of $630B on 1/10. This will be the window to buy a dip IMO. These figures do not take into account any additional reduction from the debt ceiling being reinstated on 1/1... which could add additional liquidity not accounted for as it is an unknown. That said, the debt ceiling debate is less of a factor now that we had a red sweep in the elections and the republicans control the votes, thus unlikely to be much of a "debate"... Simple but my view.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Trainwreck
1
Technical Review - BTCThere are lots of confident predictions about where markets will head next. However, at its core, trading is about speculation and taking calculated risks—not about certainty. In this post, I'll share some technical trades in BTC from recent price action. While hindsight bias will naturally come into play, I did take several of these setups in real time. Higher Timeframe Context (1-Month) In terms of the higher timeframe context, there has been a clear uptrend with two distinct continuation setups (noticeable move up, followed by a contraction towards the mean price which then sets up for a continuation). At the current time there has been an attempt for a third move. These could have been entered on the range expansion from the contractive state, however when prices become extended towards the outer boundaries we better be cautious due to risk of mean reversion. At such extremes, its better to scale out or look for better opportunities. These locations are often reached as measured moves (assumed average price volatility is sustained, as seen on the right side of the chart). This does not meant the move is over, but rather where the risk of mean reversion is increased, price can deviate from average volatility all the time. This analysis is not a prediction of future behavior, but rather a review of recent events and how they could have been traded in technical terms. There is also a component of discretion, which occur in in real time, but is not relevant to asses at this point. Before we take a trade we want to consider: What is the current structure in play, is it a trend or a range? Where is price located within that structure, are we at or near extremes? In case above conditions are met, is there a setup or an entry trigger? This all boils down to the search for imbalance. Daily Timeframe: Range-Bound Trading Opportunities In terms of my trading timeframe, which is the daily, BTC has spent the past months within a distinct range. When such a structure is in play, the locations of interest are at or near the extremes (upper and lower boundaries) where imbalances tend to occur. Efficient trades at these extremes typically arise when there’s a failure test (also known as a failed breakout or 2B pattern). In these cases, price pushes outside the boundary, fails to follow through, and reverses back inside—often trapping participants and can fuel a move in the opposite direction. This dynamic tend to hold until there is an actual breakout, there is no bulletproof way to know what will happened, but most of the time it can be helpful to reference the higher timeframe. For example, in case breakout happen in opposite to the trend we can treat them as potential failures, while with trend (as in this case with BTC to the upside) we can either treat them as breakouts or at least not fade the move. There are however exceptions and nuances to these type of plays. On the chart, I’ve marked all failure tests where price moved back into the range and formed bullish continuation structures. These setups offered opportunities to enter and take profits. In my case, I typically targeted 1R trades on these setups, with some extending into full measured moves. In conclusion, its probably a decent idea to have a structured framework to locate imbalance, but it must be combined with discretion so we can adapt to different conditions. Its not about confident predictions, but rather probabilities and calculated risks. Don't become attached to positions, let the cumulative effect drive results.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Trader-Shah
Starbucks: A Bearish OutlookStarbucks: A Bearish Outlook Starbucks completed a five-wave pattern at 103, with the price moving down clearly. A large Rising Wedge pattern represents the fifth wave of the movement that began on May 2024 and finished at the end of November 2024 Currently, the price has broken through the support line of the pattern, indicating further decline. After any small correction, we should see SBUX moving down to 88 and 82.5. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NASDAQ:SBUXShort
by KlejdiCuni
1
Gold Spot Analysis: Crown Pattern Signals Potential ReversalGold's recent price action on the 4-hour chart has unfolded into a fascinating Crown Pattern, hinting at a potential bearish continuation. This pattern, often associated with trend reversals, presents a compelling opportunity for traders to position themselves for the next move. Currently trading at $2,614, gold appears to be forming a consolidation phase within a descending triangle, signaling growing bearish momentum. Key Observations: Crown Pattern Formation: The clearly defined Crown Pattern suggests the exhaustion of the recent bullish wave. The structure follows classic measurements, with XA and DG ratios aligning closely with textbook values. The neckline at $2,630 has already been breached, solidifying the bearish outlook. Descending Triangle: Gold is consolidating within a descending triangle just below the neckline, with lower highs and a flat support line. A decisive break below $2,596 could trigger further declines. Key Support Zone: Immediate support lies at $2,554.55, coinciding with the Crown Pattern's projection target. This level will be crucial for bears to maintain their dominance. Bearish Momentum: Momentum indicators, combined with volume analysis, show waning buying pressure, further reinforcing the likelihood of a downward move. ------------------------------------------- Expected Scenarios: Bearish Continuation: A breakdown below the descending triangle at $2,596 could pave the way for a decline toward $2,554 and potentially lower. Bullish Reversal Invalidated: If gold manages to break above $2,630 and sustain above this key level, the bearish outlook will be invalidated, opening the door for a retest of $2,670.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by melikatrader94
8
FET 4-hour - AI - "Artificial Superintelligence Alliance"I was and wasn't bummed I sold my initial entry too early. However I shouldn't complain to much making 60% profit on that in less than a month. I decided to play with some house-monies and found a re-entry position to squeeze another scalp trade. I do like the coin and almost wish I would just hodl some large bags worth. This project will probably be one of the successful use cases more like a utility token, having that 3 individual coin projects recently merged into this one. Hence the wording "Alliance". We have indicators like the 4-hour that got low enough in negative territory to have reset and start the trending upwards. Looking for the 4-hour divergence that did not form, however it was turning upwards and I entered into the trade. A few hours later a 1-hour divergence formed and PA started it's march upwards. Looking to reach about a 10% increase in PA and will re-evaluate the trade situation, around the $1.87 level. Why trade FET ? .. it has an outstanding Volatility right now. There will be possibilities and opportunities for multiple short term scalping trades. I have posted Fib lines, triangle structure, and two target "yellow rectangles". I have always used a 2% COT "cost of trading" buffer, it tends to be the maximum cost and a minimum goal to start profit taking. Good Luck
COINBASE:FETUSDLong
by Quartz-
NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
etc long midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Long
by Golden_candle
GBPCHF - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. Also price swept key weekly swing high. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of weakness, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
1
GBPUSD - Long SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key swing low and left untouched swing high. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of strength, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price higher. Also DXY as a great confluence, swept weakly swing high. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Long
by Maks_Klimenko
1
Technical Analysis (TA) and GEX for IWM for Dec. 20Market Overview IWM has been experiencing a significant downturn over the past week, reflecting broad market weakness. The ETF is attempting to stabilize after hitting critical support levels. Gamma Exposure (GEX) analysis highlights key resistance and support areas, providing insights for potential market movements. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Analysis * Current Gamma Profile: * HVL (Highest Volume Level): $220, acting as a key pivot point. * Major Resistance: * $223: High GEX indicates strong call wall resistance; price may struggle to break this level without significant volume. * $235: Secondary resistance aligning with historical price rejection levels. * Major Support: * $218: Immediate GEX support; a breakdown below this could lead to further declines. * $215: Strong put wall and critical support, where buyers are likely to step in. * Implied Volatility (IV): * IV is trending lower, indicating that market participants expect reduced volatility ahead. This could signal consolidation after recent sell-offs. Technical Analysis 1-Hour Chart Insights: * Trend: Short-term recovery within a broader downtrend. * IWM is showing signs of breaking out of a descending channel, indicating a potential reversal if confirmed by volume and momentum. * Key Levels: * Resistance: * $223: Major hurdle; breaking above this would signal a bullish continuation. * $226: Secondary resistance aligned with the 50 EMA. * Support: * $218: Immediate support from GEX. * $215: Critical support; failure here could lead to a retest of lower levels. * Indicators: * MACD: * Bullish crossover, suggesting increasing momentum for a short-term rebound. * EMA (9 & 21): * Price is attempting to reclaim the 9 EMA; sustained movement above both EMAs would confirm a trend reversal. Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario: * Entry: Above $220 with strong volume confirmation. * Targets: * First Target: $223 (GEX resistance). * Second Target: $226 (EMA alignment). * Stop-Loss: Below $218. Bearish Scenario: * Entry: Below $218 with increasing sell volume. * Targets: * First Target: $215 (put wall support). * Second Target: $212 (lower GEX support). * Stop-Loss: Above $220. Key Takeaways 1. Consolidation Phase: IWM appears to be consolidating, with a bias toward a short-term recovery. Gamma levels are tightly aligned, indicating a range-bound market unless a breakout occurs. 2. Momentum Indicators: Bullish MACD crossover and an attempt to reclaim EMAs suggest potential for a short-term rally. 3. Critical Levels: Traders should monitor $223 for bullish confirmation and $218 for bearish signals. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and risk management before trading.
AMEX:IWM
by BullBearInsights
EURCAD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and it this case we can notice sign of weakness, so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower. Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko