Self reflectionThe past couple of days has seen EURUSD hit my POI and start to bounce off and head towards my target. While this is nice, the downside is that I have not yet been able to position myself into this trade.
This video is just about my emotional state at this moment and some takeaways I need going forward. Initially this was meant to be a private video but in the spirit of transparency and just wanting to be held more accountable to myself I decided to make it public.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Trading using Bell-Curves In this video, I go over some of the theoretical and practical applications of bell-curves in trading.
Topics covered include:
1. The normal distribution and skewness
2. Kurtosis
3. Regression to the mean
4. Tests of Normality; and
5. Real-world examples of how bell curves work
Calculating Bell-Curves:
Bell curves can be calculated using SPSS, Excel, SAS, R and OpenOffice. Eventually, my aim is to provide this ability and functionality directly within Pinescript so that we may be able to calculate the distribution right from Tradingview. I have already made some strides in this area which have culminated in a upcoming release of a new indicator and a Stats based library. My aim is to continue to advance new functionalities in Pinescript for other math-based and quant-based traders.
If you would like a tutorial on how to calculate bell-curves directly in Excel, SPSS or R, let me know below.
MOST IMPORTANTLY!! Your feedback!
And most importantly, I ask for your feedback!
I enjoy making content like this, the two things in life I love the most, I mean besides my dog, are Math and Trading! However, I want to provide content people find useful and helpful. So please let me know if you find this helpful and/or useful and also suggestions on future content you would like to see. I can only provide useful information when I know what people find useful!
Thank you for watching and enjoy the rest of your long weekend!
How to: Dynamic DCA with Risk Metric [Live Backtest]Hi Everyone,
This tutorial is a live backtest demonstration of a basic Dynamic DCA strategy using my Bitcoin Risk Metric and how it performed in the 2018-2021 BTC market cycle.
The risk metric quantifies the risk of buying BTC at any given time, highlighting periods of overvaluation and undervaluation. A Dynamic DCA strategy allows the user to:
Accumulate BTC during periods of undervaluation.
Lock in profit during periods of overvaluation.
Grow a cash position (undeployed capital) to take advantage of periods of extreme undervaluation.
I hope this tutorial is informative and gives a clear picture of how the @panpanXBT Bitcoin Risk Metric indicators can be utilised to guide decision making.
Please refer to the ideas linked below for information on how to gain access to these private indicators and strategies.
Price Channel TradingPrice Channel + RSI trading
Price channel trading involves identifying a range of prices in which is trading and buying when the price hits the lower end of the range and selling when it hits the upper end of the strategy to trade within the range and that the price will eventually revert the mean.
RSI trading involves using the Relative Index (RSI) identify overbought and oversold in a stock. When the RSI is above 70, is considered overbought, and when the RSI is 30, the stock is considered overs Traders may buy when the stock is oversold and it is overbought, assuming the price will eventually revert of these strategies can be used to make money trading stocks, but careful analysis and to be successful. It's important to do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
How To: Share Chart Ideas on TradingView and across your socialsA few people asked about how to more easily share their ideas both within TradingView and across their social platforms. They'd been manually capturing and saving chart screenshots, which made me consider that many may not be aware of the existing built-in functionality for this purpose. Hence, I've put together a brief video guide for those who haven't yet discovered this handy feature.
Super simple and quick. Hope others find it useful :)
Using Excel to Backtest your Strategy Hello everyone!
This is a tutorial video on how to use Excel to backtest your strategies using technical indicators on Tradingview.
This provides the foundations for you to get creative and have the essential tools and knowledge required to begin back-testing your strategies using Excel.
There is much more than can be done using Excel for back-testing, so if you are interested in seeing more in-depth functionality for more advanced back-testing methods, let me know below!
The essential functions in this video are the conditional functions of Excel. These are the "If" "Then" statements.
The code used to identify conditions are:
Single condition:
=if(condition1,"Result1","Result2")
More than One Condition:
=if(and(condition1, condition2, condition3, etc.),"Result 1", "Result 2")
If you do not have Excel, you can use OpenOffice which is opensource and free to use!
As always, let me know your questions and comments below!
Safe trades everyone!
What is an "R"? Discover the Most Popular Way to Manage RiskUsing R multiples is one of the most widely used strategies by professional traders for managing risk and tracking results. The R multiple concept is extremely easy to use and implement into your own strategy. With this simple idea, money management will become a breeze! If you have any questions or comments I would love to hear them!
Fibonacci Price Theory In Action On SPYAre you struggling to understand how price is the ultimate indicator?
This basic instructional video will help you learn the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory and how to apply it properly to price.
Remember, Fibonacci Price Theory works on any symbol, any interval, anything that TRADES.
Used in conjunction with other TA or advanced modeling, this is likely the KEY to your understanding how price is the ULTIMATE INDICATOR for all your trading.
Want to learn more?
Follow my research learn how I apply 25+ years of experience to the markets.
#spy #trading #futures #es #nq #qqq #investing
My secret to being a profitable Swing Trader: The TPIA Quick Reminder!
It's important to have a good list of alt coins with good fundamentals, when you want to pivot over to hold altcoins like I show here!
The Trend Probability Indicator (TPI) is a powerful tool utilized in modern portfolio theory to assess whether a market is experiencing a bullish or bearish trend. By integrating multiple systems, including machine learning algorithms, the TPI provides valuable insights into market conditions and helps investors make informed decisions.
The TPI integrates eight systems, including a machine learning algorithm based on a kernel regression model.
It analyzes market trends and determines the overall market structure (bullish, bearish, or neutral).
The TPI value ranges from -1 to +1, with -0.2 to +0.2 indicating a neutral or ranging market.
Positive TPI values indicate bullishness, negative values suggest bearishness.
The TPI incorporates machine learning to predict future market movements.
Investors can use the TPI to evaluate trend probability and make informed portfolio decisions.
By using the TPI to compare the strength of cryptocurrency pairs, investors can gain valuable insights to make strategic investment decisions and optimize their portfolio performance while managing risk effectively.
It gives you these additional super-powers to scan the market:
The TPI helps gauge the relative strength between two cryptocurrencies, indicating which one has a stronger bullish or bearish trend.
By comparing the TPI values of different cryptocurrency pairs, investors can identify favorable trading opportunities where one crypto is likely to outperform the other.
Based on the TPI analysis, investors can allocate their portfolio in a way that maximizes returns by favoring the crypto with a stronger trend while minimizing risk.
Timing Entry and Exit Points: The TPI assists in determining optimal entry and exit points for trading a particular crypto pair, improving the timing of transactions and potentially enhancing profitability.
By considering the TPI values of different crypto pairs, investors can make more informed decisions regarding risk management, such as adjusting position sizes or diversifying holdings.
The Based Algo
The Based Algo is a mean-reversion tool that uses funding, adaptive moving average lines and funding + volume to detect tops and bottoms.
Let me know if you have any questions! I linked a video that explains how we allocate between BINANCE:BTCUSDT and $BINANCE:ETHUSDT. Give it a look!
The Losing Lesson #1In this first video of a series I intend to create, I discuss where I went wrong on losing trade today.
I'm not sure if this trade will hit TP or not, but regardless, the lesson is still applicable for future trades. It's clear that a stop below the more significant swing low would have kept me in this trade but trying to squeeze out another R from the market was simply not worth it.
Reviewing losing trades is just as important, if not more, than reviewing your winners. We can learn from these trades and become even better.
Happy trading,
The Meditrader
Gold - XAUUSD Trade with Heiken Ashi and AOTrading Gold (XAUUSD) Using Heiken Ashi (HA) Framework
With the candlestick pattern, we will have a clearer direction in trend trading.
Minimizing the problems that occur with the wrong direction leading to errors.
On the video, we will clearly see the difference between the 2 candlestick patterns and the HA pattern.
Entry conditions at the start of the trend
Exit when changing direction of trend.
Shown at strategy works well for all currency pairs and Gold.
In the inspection area from April 1, 2021 to April 22, 2023 corresponding to 2 years.
With an initial start of : 1,000 $
The result after 2 years is: 283 272.00 USD
Growth: 28 327.2%
Maximum Status Sound Level (Withdraw): 13.95%
Win rate: 77.64%
The script is in the development stage to be more complete.
Bad Ass B-Bands Has Been Update to Include Magenta B BandsHi Everyone! Bad Ass B-Bands have been updated to include the Magenta Upper and Magenta Lower B-Bands.
The Standard Deviation for each Bollinger Band utilizes Fibonacci math rather than the usual default deviations in other B-Bands.
Purple Upper B-Band = + 4.618 Standard Deviation
Red Upper B-Band = + 3.618 Standard Deviation
Orange Upper B-Band = + 2.618 Standard Deviation
Aqua Upper B-Band = + 1.618 Standard Deviation
White Upper B-Band = + 1.0 Standard Deviation
Magenta Upper B-Band = + 0.618 Standard Deviation
Yellow B-Band Basis = 20 Moving Average
Magenta Lower B-Band = -0.618 Standard Deviation
White Lower B-Band = -1.0 Standard Deviation
Aqua Lower B-Band = -1.618 Standard Deviation
Orange Lower B-Band = -2.618 Standard Deviation
Red Lower B-Band = -3.618 Standard Deviation
Purple Lower B-Band = -4.618 Standard Deviation
Level 60 within Phoenix Ascending Indicator represents the Magenta Upper B-Band. You may want to change the color of level 60 to magenta.
Level 40 within Phoenix Ascending indicator represents the Magenta Lower B-Band. You may want to change the color of level 40 to magenta.
Unfortunately, I forgot to mention in the video to change the colors of level 40 and level 60 within Phoenix Bands to a magenta color.
a simple strategy for entrys for non traders - scalping the market always with a stop loss ... Start small always ..... risk only 2% of your portfolio ....
and for long term investing ... dollar cost average .... simply buy good companys dont put more than 5% of your portfolio on any one asset coin etc ... enjoy!!!!
Price action vs Indicators =, Another lie in trading ? I did not go into the details of "lagging" as it relates to indicators. Which is a true statement but its a misunderstood statement in the trading industry because most people don't truly understand what that means and also there are a lot of indicators that are leading. However in this video when I say "lagging" I am referring to the general idea in fx that indicators are useless because they are using past data.