XAUUSD strong down opportunity soon 1. Trendline Validity
The current trendline is drawn as a downward channel. However, are there enough touches to validate it as a strong trendline? Sometimes, trendlines can be subjective and might not hold.
2. Support & Resistance Strength
The chart marks a "strong selling zone" at resistance, but does it have historical significance? If this level hasn’t been tested multiple times, it might not be as strong.
The support area is expected to hold, but gold is volatile. Is there a fundamental reason supporting a bounce from there?
3. Alternative Scenarios
What if gold breaks out of the downtrend instead of continuing lower? A breakout above resistance could invalidate the bearish expectation.
Instead of a clean bounce at support, price could consolidate sideways or even break below.
4. Fundamental Factors
Are there any upcoming economic events (such as FOMC meetings, CPI reports, or geopolitical tensions) that could disrupt this technical setup?
Beyond Technical Analysis
USDCHF Bearish Rejection from Premium Zone LiquidityTarget0.8793Overview:
The USD/CHF 4-hour chart displays a well-defined Wyckoff Distribution pattern, suggesting a bearish continuation. Price has rejected from an extreme Premium Zone (0.8990 - 0.9050), indicating that sellers are regaining control. The market is now poised for a potential decline toward unmitigated liquidity levels near 0.8793, which serves as the next key support.
Key Technical Analysis:
Buying Climax: The market experienced an aggressive bullish move before forming a Buying Climax (BC), which trapped late buyers.
Sign of Weakness (SOW): A major SOW (Sign of Weakness) confirms bearish intent, with price struggling to sustain above key resistance.
Change of Character (CHoCH): A confirmed shift from bullish to bearish structure, reinforcing the downtrend.
Extreme Premium Zone: The rejection from 0.8990 - 0.9050 acts as a strong supply area where institutions have placed sell orders.
Liquidity Hunt & Retest: The price recently swept liquidity near 0.8990 and is now testing a previous support zone, which is likely to turn into resistance.
Trade Plan:
📌 Entry: Short near 0.8990 - 0.9000 after a retest confirmation.
🎯 Target 1: 0.8800 (Key psychological level).
🎯 Target 2: 0.8793 (Unmitigated liquidity).
🎯 Target 3: 0.8735 (Deeper bearish target).
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 0.9050 to minimize risk.
Keep it simple - set and forget !!1. Accumulate when prices are between 78,000 and 85,000.
2. Sell a portion when prices hit 120,000 to 130,000 - probably this cycle top.
3. Start accumulating again when prices drop to 57,000 to 67,000 for the next cycle.
4. Set price alerts and let it go – don’t worry about checking constantly!
This way, you can stick to the plan without stressing over every price change.
There’s no such thing as getting rich overnight for the average person. Achieving great things takes time and effort. Success is a journey, not a shortcut!!!
NFA
USD/JPY Bearish Reversal Key Resistance & Fibonacci Target ZonesOverview:
This USD/JPY daily chart shows a potential bearish reversal setup after a break below key support and trendline structure. The pair has recently dropped below a critical demand zone (highlighted in green), which has now turned into resistance. The price is currently attempting a pullback, and a potential rejection from the resistance zone aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.
Key Levels & Technical Analysis:
Previous Support Turned Resistance: The green zone represents a significant past support area that has now become resistance after a breakdown.
Trendline Break: The upward trendline that supported price action for several months has been broken, confirming bearish momentum.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
0.382 (151.265): A minor resistance level for a possible short-term rejection.
0.5 (148.979): A stronger resistance, aligning with structure.
0.618 - 0.786 (145.053 - 143.582): The ultimate bearish targets, coinciding with Fibonacci retracement extensions.
Bearish Projection:
The expected scenario suggests a short-term retracement towards the 151.265-148.979 resistance zone.
If the price faces rejection, a strong bearish continuation could target 145.053 and ultimately 143.582.
Trade Plan:
📌 Short Entry: Around 151.265 - 148.979 if price rejects resistance.
🎯 Target 1: 145.053 (0.70 Fibonacci)
🎯 Target 2: 143.582 (0.786 Fibonacci)
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 152.000 to invalidate the bearish setup.
Conclusion:
The overall sentiment for USD/JPY is bearish after breaking a key trendline and support level. Traders should watch for a pullback into the resistance zone, followed by a bearish rejection for a potential short trade. However, a break above 152.000 could invalidate this setup, shifting momentum back to the bulls.
📉 Bearish Bias Until Key Resistance Holds! 📉
Consumer Sentiment & Stocks MarketsStock Markets Track Consumer Sentiment Closely
The relationship between consumer sentiment and the stock market is evident in this observation. Historically, consumer sentiment tends to lead stock market movements, providing valuable insights into potential trends.
Personally, I consider the Russell 2000 Index as a reflection of mass consumer sentiment, given that it tracks the 2,000 smallest publicly traded companies in the U.S. market. Looking at the E-Mini Russell futures, consumer sentiment peaked in December 2024, and since then, I have been monitoring the Russell and other indices along their well-supported trendlines. When the Russell started testing its trendline in January, I became cautious about its uptrend.
The clean break on February 21 signaled a shift: Russell transitioned from an uptrend to a downtrend on the daily chart. Consequently, my trading strategy has shifted from buying on dips to selling on strength whenever opportunities arise.
Russell is Leading Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P???
Indices tend to influence each other, and leadership often rotates. While the Nasdaq has previously led market moves, this case study suggests Russell is currently taking the lead.
Technically, the overall U.S. market remains bullish as long as it holds above the primary uptrend line. A bear market is typically confirmed when the market drops 30%, and by then, it should break below all primary uptrend lines. However, waiting for that confirmation is too late—by then, the damage will be significant.
The key observation is that Russell has already broken its secondary uptrend line. Will the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq follow? If so, we need to make fundamental projections. Factors like escalating tariff conflicts could worsen inflation, directly impacting the broader stock market and indices.
Consumer Sentiment Still Below 80 Despite Pandemic Being Long Over
Given the current macro environment, consumer sentiment is likely to remain below 80 for an extended period. Additionally, there is a downside risk if geopolitical tensions escalate.
From past case studies, a consumer sentiment reading below 80 has often preceded a stock market decline. This historical pattern raises concerns about future market stability.
My Trading Strategy: Cautiously Bullish
• Technical Perspective: Apart from Russell, I remain bullish on other indices.
• Fundamental Perspective: Market sentiment leans toward pessimism.
• Conclusion: This dual outlook leads me to a cautiously bullish stance.
For Russell 2000, my preferred strategy is to sell into strength, guided by a downtrend channel. Another alternative is trading Micro E-Mini Russell futures (M2K) for precision and risk management.
📈 Happy trading!
Please see the following disclaimer and additional information that may be useful.
E-mini Russell Futures
Ticker: RTY
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 index points = $5.00
Micro E-mini Russell Futures
Ticker: M2K
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
XAUUSD BEFORE & AFTER READ IN CAPTION XAUUSD (Gold)* with key levels marked for potential trades. The price has recently touched the *support zone* around *2,867.378*, which could offer a buying opportunity. The *resistance* is at *2,920.364*, and the *retest area* is highlighted, suggesting a potential move up if the price bounces from the support. Watch for price action near the *support* for entry and target the *resistance* for potential gains
KAPCO – Bullish Flag Pattern Breakout in PlayKAPCO is forming a bullish flag pattern, indicating a strong uptrend continuation. The stock is currently consolidating within the flag, and a break above 39.50 with strong volume would confirm the breakout, potentially leading to a rally towards 42-43. This level also marks a double top resistance, where some short-term rejection could be expected. However, if the breakout sustains with increased buying pressure, it could pave the way for further upside. Traders should monitor volume closely for confirmation before entering a position.
Litecoin Update Including 1,300% Target From Bottom-UpThis is Litecoin on the weekly timeframe and nothing changes; super, hyper bullish.
First, notice the volume, it continues to rise. The last two weeks produced the highest volume ever and this is the best signal you can find. Volume is the most important signal to confirm the validity of a move.
Second, notice the current weekly candle. There is a very long lower wick (shadow), and the action moves back above support. This is a very strong signal, why? There was much selling, really strong selling pressure but buyers showed up and bought everything. If the week closes at current price, we have a bullish signal in the form of a hammer. If it closes higher, even a stronger bullish signal. If it closes lower, the bullish bias remains intact because the action is very strong compared to the early February wick low.
The early February low hit $80. Litecoin is currently trading at $127.
I updated this chart to show more long-term, real and reasonable, targets. We have a target around $450 for 250% and another one at $707 for more than 450%. Now, this potential is because Litecoin is already pretty advanced in its bullish cycle since it has been growing since August 2024.
If we consider growth potential but starting from the market bottom, we are looking at 800% and 1,300% or more. It is likely that Litecoin will peak much higher, but we have time to adapt to how far high prices will go. Right now, the wise move is to buy and hold.
Buy and hold will take care of everything. Leverage can be used but it should be very low. It is better to earn a safe and secure 500%, than to go for a risky 5,000% and lose everything along the way. Don't get me wrong, leverage trading is an amazing tool but it should be used with caution. If you are buying Crypto to change your life, to live in abundance and be rich, you are better up buying and holding and increasing your money slowly but surely. In 2025 we will all win.
Thank you for coming back and for deciding to read.
It is my pleasure to write for you.
Thanks a lot for your support.
Namaste.
Bitcoin Finds Support, Relation 2 Altcoins Market & Bullish TalkBitcoin is trading right now between the 0.5 and 0.382 Fib. retracement levels relative to the last bullish wave. Let's dissect what this means.
The main levels are always 0.382 and 0.618 when it comes to Fibonacci retracements. The 0.5 level is also relevant and pairs tend to find support around this line.
Bitcoin broke the 0.382 Fib. level decisively but on very low volume.
Bitcoin failed to test 0.5 Fib. retracement level as support.
The fact that volume is low and 0.5 wasn't pierced works in favors of the bulls.
Notice that 0.618, the golden ratio, is not even in question. This is because the market is ultra-bullish. When the market is bullish, a reversal tends to happen at 0.382 or above 0.618. The fact that Bitcoin stopped its fall above this major support is good news for the bulls. This is good for those that are trading Bitcoin LONG. Just hold patiently because prices will recover and Bitcoin will grow. Not only grow but massive growth.
Signals continue to develop from the Altcoins market, today is not the same as yesterday, today we have a continuation on many, many big and small pairs.
At first, it would be doubtful to trust the signals that I am showing because the action was young in some cases, in other cases it was weak and small. But this isn't the case anymore.
Very big projects such as Aptos, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Polkadot, Zcash and Maker are only a few of the many examples I've been showing you. This is enough to know, confirm and trust that the bottom is already in, the Altcoins market is going up. The only way the Altcoins can grow is if Bitcoin is also going to grow. The Altcoins never move up while Bitcoin is bearish. Seeing an Altcoin growing 100%+ in a single day means that the bears are weak while the bulls are strong. We are experiencing the final-final flush before a major, massive, incredibly, hyper, uber-rich Cryptocurrency market bull-run.
So support is good and support is really strong. The 0.5 Fib. retracement level sits at $79,000 but this level wasn't hit. Bitcoin bottomed before hitting $82,000 but some people are saying lower and this is where confusion comes.
I understand that we have many great traders and market analysts. TradingView is truly the best place in the world (Internet) for trading, learning, growing and sharing about financial markets and charts. But these same markets and charts can't lie. We can interpret some signals in a way that is detached from reality but the market is never wrong. Whatever is about to happen, it is clearly revealed when we look at the charts.
FIOUSDT is another pair that is breaking up just too strong after a higher low. The low being 3-February and the higher low a few days ago (25-Feb). This is just another confirmation that the correction is over; we (Bitcoin) are going up next.
It is great to be part of this market and this community.
It is such a blessing to have access this kind of knowledge and information. Because I can read this now I can rest easy and be calm. I know that regardless of what happens, Bitcoin is going up.
Bitcoin isn't going up in years to come, nor in the future far away. Bitcoin is set to grow, together with the Altcoins market, in a matter of days.
Are you ready for the 2025 bull-market?
Thank you.
Your continued support is appreciated.
We are winners and will continue to win regardless of what is takes.
We will pour our hearts, our sweat and our blood into what we do and trust. If today I make the right decision, tomorrow I am taking a big bag of money home.
The Cryptocurrency market is changing (saving) the world.
The money monopoly is over.
Money used to mean bondage, now, money is freedom.
Namaste.
EURGBP Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURGBP for a selling opportunity around 0.82900 zone, EURGBP is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.82900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Opening (IRA): SMCI April 17th 34 Covered Call... for a 32.13 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV. Selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 2 x expected move 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 32.13/share
Max Profit: 1.87
ROC at Max: 5.82%
50% Max: .94
ROC at 50% Max: 2.91%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call if take profit is not hit.
GOLD, Is a correction on the way ???Hello Traders, Hope you are doing great.
GOLD is forming a Rising Wedge Reversal pattern these days and it seems that Bulls aren't able to raise the price at least for now. So I expect a downward correction in upcoming days.
Remember that this kind of corrections are temporary and gold price will probably see higher price this year; so Don't forget to use proper risk management .
and finally tell me What are your thoughts about GOLD ? UP or DOWN ? comment your opinion below this post.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈21420 21465 21510
📉21280 21230 21180
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/27/2025
📈6016
📉5976
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
XAUUSD UPDATED VIDEO ANALYSIS XAU/USD Analysis for 21 February 2025
Here’s a detailed breakdown of the factors influencing Gold (XAU/USD) for tomorrow, based on technical and fundamental insights from recent market data and forecasts:
1. Technical Analysis & Key Levels
Resistance Levels:
Immediate resistance at 2,940–2,943 USD (record high observed on 19 February)
A breakout above this zone could target 2,970 USD (next psychological barrier) or even 3,030 USD (Triangle pattern completion)
Support Levels:
Critical support at 2,887–2,906 USD. A drop below this range might trigger a deeper correction toward 2,850 USD
Indicators:
RSI (54.58): Neutral but leaning bullish.
MACD & Williams %R: Buy signals
Stochastic Oscillator: Overbought, suggesting short-term correction risks, though the broader uptrend remains intact
2. Fundamental Drivers
Fed Minutes Impact:
The release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes (scheduled for 19–20 February) is critical. A hawkish tone (e.g., delays in rate cuts) could strengthen the USD, pressuring Gold. Conversely, dovish hints may fuel bullish momentum
Geopolitical Tensions:
Ongoing US-Russia negotiations over Ukraine and Trump’s renewed tariff threats (e.g., 25%+ tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors) may sustain safe-haven demand for Gold
Dollar Dynamics:
The inverse correlation between XAU/USD and the USD remains pivotal. A weaker dollar (due to risk-off sentiment or Fed easing expectations) could propel Gold higher
3. Price Action Scenarios
Bullish Case:
A sustained break above 2,943 USD confirms the Triangle pattern breakout, targeting 3,030 USD
Continued safe-haven demand (geopolitical risks, tariffs) and dovish Fed signals may drive prices higher
Bearish Risks:
Failure to hold 2,900 USD support could trigger a correction toward 2,850 USD
Hawkish Fed rhetoric or USD strength (e.g., strong economic data) may cap gains
4. Strategic Takeaways
Entry Points:
Long positions: Consider buying on dips near 2,900–2,877 USD with a stop loss below 2,850 USD
Short-term traders: Target 2,970 USD if resistance at 2,943 USD breaks
Risk Management:
Monitor Fed Minutes and USD volatility. Adjust stop-loss levels dynamically based on news flow
Conclusion
Gold remains in a bullish trend, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation hedging. However, tomorrow’s Fed Minutes will be pivotal in determining short-term momentum. A breakout above 2,943 USD opens the door to new highs, while a breakdown below 2,900 USD signals profit-taking or a deeper correction. Traders should align positions with technical levels and news-driven volatility.
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XAUUSD ANALYSIS UPDATE 27-02-25 #SEMS #ACCURATEGOLDANALYSISXAUUSD Analysis Update – XAUUSD Pulls Back After All-Time High
📌 Gold (XAU/USD) hit a record high of $2,955 on 20-02-25 before retreating to a weekly low of $2867.64, as market turbulence, Trump’s tariff threats, ceasefire talks, and new trade deals contributed to a cooling effect.
🔹 Upcoming Events That Could Drive Market Volatility:
NFP & CPI Reports-pending
Fresh Trade Data & International Trade Imbalance
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision-pending
📊 Technical Outlook & Trading Strategy:
$2,834 remains a critical support and demand range. Until then, we will trade with moderate lot sizes, advising traders to exercise caution and follow the preset trade levels and exit strategies.
Selling at highs once again proved highly effective, reinforcing the accuracy of our strategy.
🔹 Key Buy Levels & Trading Plan:
✅ Buy Zones: $2,855 – $2,840 – $2,825 – $2,800
✅ Trading Approach: Buy within this range, adjust position sizing based on volume, and exit partially at key resistance levels.
📢 Precision & strategy remain our edge—trade smart! 🚀📈
Nvidia Flexes Bold Guidance but Can the Chipmaker Deliver on It?Chief Jensen Huang showed hubris on the earnings call right after Nvidia NVDA reported another blockbuster quarter with record sales and soaring profits. He said that demand for the new Blackwell chip is “amazing.”
“Well, I'm more enthusiastic today than I was at CES We have some 350 plants manufacturing the 1.5 million components that go into each one of the Blackwell racks, Grace Blackwell racks. Yes, it's extremely complicated,” Huang said. “Nothing is easy about what we’re doing, but we’re doing great.”
Everyone and their dog was glued to the screen after-hours Wednesday, waiting to hear what the most important person for the stock market was going to say. And many were hoping it’ll be good and Nvidia will save us from the recent selloff that spilled from tech stocks to all stocks .
And indeed, it was another stellar performance by Nvidia. For the fourth quarter ended January 26, the chipmaking giant pulled in record revenue of $39.3 billion, up 80% from a year ago, topping analyst estimates for $38 billion. Earnings per share reached $0.89 against Wall Street guidance for $0.84 a pop. Net income landed at $22.1 billion, up 80% from a year earlier.
Without a doubt, Nvidia continued its string of record-shattering results. And, what’s more, that’s also what Nvidia thinks will happen with the current quarter. The company projected revenue of $43 billion for the first three months of 2025, up 65% from the year-ago quarter when sales hit $26 billion .
To get to that figure, and keep the growth going, Nvidia will need to retain all its deep-pocketed clients like Amazon AMZN , Meta META , Microsoft MSFT and Alphabet GOOGL . These four alone make up about half of Nvidia’s revenue. Other customers with buckets of cash include ChatGPT parent OpenAI and Elon Musk’s Tesla TSLA .
As to the share price, investors didn’t really cheer the upbeat guidance or the double beat on both earnings and revenue. The stock showed virtually no reaction in extended trading — could it be that markets expected an even bigger blowout performance?
Or maybe they don’t believe in Nvidia’s business model after DeepSeek achieved for mere millions what OpenAI achieved for hundreds of millions? Year to date, Nvidia, the second-largest company in the world , is down 5% to $3.2 trillion. It’s drifted about 10% away from the all-time high hit in early January.
And with this, make sure to closely watch the earnings calendar for other hot reports as AI history is being made before our eyes.
What’s your take on Nvidia’s future? Do you think its Big Tech clients will soon whip up their own AI chips? Or is Nvidia’s AI dominance set in stone? Share your thoughts in the comment section!