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Beyond Technical Analysis

Can Market Turbulence Create Future Innovation?In a dramatic turn of events that sent shockwaves through the pharmaceutical industry, Novo Nordisk's recent setback with its experimental obesity drug CagriSema presents a fascinating case study in market resilience and scientific progress. The company's stock plummeted 24% after trial results showed a 22.7% weight reduction efficacy, falling short of the anticipated 25% target. Yet, beneath this apparent disappointment lies a deeper story of pharmaceutical innovation and market adaptation. The obesity treatment landscape stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the market experiencing exponential growth from its modest beginnings to a staggering $24 billion industry in 2023. Novo Nordisk's journey, alongside competitor Eli Lilly, exemplifies how setbacks often catalyze breakthrough innovations. The CagriSema trial, involving 3,400 participants, represents a clinical study and a testament to the industry's commitment to addressing global health challenges. Looking ahead, this moment of market recalibration might well be remembered as a turning point in the evolution of obesity treatment. With projections suggesting a potential $200 billion market by the early 2030s, the current turbulence could drive even greater innovation and competition. The fact that only 57% of trial participants reached the highest CagriSema dose points to untapped potential and future opportunities for optimization, suggesting that today's apparent setback might pave the way for tomorrow's breakthroughs.
NYSE:NVOShort
by UDIS_View
Most traders on social media are liarsInvesting can be one of the most powerful ways to build wealth. But let’s face it—most investments come with a ton of headaches. Running a business? Long hours, high risks, and endless stress. Real estate? It’s capital-intensive, requires constant management, and tenants can be a nightmare. That’s why, for many people, simply investing in the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) or CRYPTOCAP:BTC can be a better choice. Over the long term, the SP:SPX has delivered average annual returns of about 8–10%, with minimal effort (even more than that in 2024). No tenants. No employees. No need to monitor charts or markets daily. Just consistent, compounding growth over time. Now, here’s where it gets interesting. Trading —when done right—has the potential to outperform SPX investing. While the SPX provides solid, steady returns, traders who master their craft can potentially achieve far higher percentages. But—and this is a huge “but”—most people who try trading fail miserably. And part of the reason is simple: the trading world is full of lies, scams, and fake promises. In this article, I’ll break down exactly why most traders are liars and why the only person you should trust in this game is yourself. If you’re considering trading or looking to spot the frauds, this is for you. Social media is flooded with “gurus” flaunting perfect results and luxury lifestyles. But here’s the hard truth: most of them are lying to you. If you’re not careful, you’ll fall for their tricks, waste your money, and damage your confidence. Let’s break it down so you understand exactly how these so-called traders operate. Only Winning Trades? Think Again Scroll through Instagram or YouTube. All you see are screenshots of winning trades. Huge profits like “+200% in a day” or “$5,000 profit this morning while drinking coffee.” But ask yourself: why do you never see their losing trades? The reality is, every trader loses—yes, even the best in the world. There’s no such thing as a 100% win rate in trading. What these people do is simple: They take a ton of trades, show you only the winning ones, and bury the losses. It’s called cherry-picking, and it’s incredibly deceptive. This tactic lets them sell an illusion of success. And that illusion helps them build their brand and sell you courses, signals, or mentorship. Don’t fall for the fake perfection. If they only show wins, they’re hiding something. Are These Even Real Trades? Here’s another problem: how do you know they actually took those trades? Spoiler: you don’t. Many of these traders don’t actually trade the markets. Instead, they analyze the chart after the move has already happened. Then, they post a screenshot and act like they predicted it all along. Others use demo accounts. These are practice accounts where you trade fake money. They can show massive profits on a demo account without risking a single dollar. The kicker? Most people can’t tell the difference between a real account and a demo. And then there’s the outright faking. They use tools like Photoshop to edit screenshots of their trades. Or they manipulate their accounts to show inflated results. Trust me, it’s easier to fake than you think. If someone shows you a perfect trade, ask for proof. Ask to see the full trading history, not just one cherry-picked example. Paid to Lie A lot of these so-called traders aren’t making money from trading at all. They’re making money from you. Here’s how: 1. Broker commissions: Many traders work as affiliates for brokers. For every new trader they bring in, they earn a percentage of your trading fees. Their job isn’t to teach you or help you make money. Their job is to get you trading as much as possible. 2. Crypto shilling: Crypto projects pay influencers to promote their coins. These traders post “bullish” analysis to get you to buy. Once the hype drives the price up, the project dumps their tokens, and you lose money. Their motivation isn’t your success. It’s their profit. If someone’s making money off your trades, question everything they say. Don’t Believe Their Track Records “But what about their track record? It looks legit!” Listen carefully: track records can’t be trusted. Here’s why: 1. Demo accounts: Many traders show results from demo accounts, not real money. There’s zero risk involved, so they can take wild trades and show massive gains. It’s not real. 2. Photoshop and manipulation: Even real accounts can be faked with editing tools. Some traders manipulate their account history to hide losses and exaggerate wins. 3. Past performance means nothing: Even if the track record is real, it doesn’t guarantee future success. Markets change, and strategies that worked yesterday might fail tomorrow. Don’t trust numbers on a screen. If they can’t show you live, verifiable results, don’t take them seriously. Trust No One—Not Even Me Here’s the most important lesson: don’t trust anyone in trading. Not the “gurus.” Not their flashy results. Not their promises of easy success. And yes, that includes me. Don’t even trust what I’m saying right now. Why? Because the only person who truly cares about your success is you. I don’t want you to blindly trust me. I want you to think for yourself. Learn how to trade on your own. Build your own strategies, develop your own edge, and question everything. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is. The only person you can fully trust in trading is yourself. Because only you truly want yourself to get richer. Final Thoughts Trading isn’t a shortcut to wealth. It’s a skill that takes time, effort, and constant learning. The internet is full of liars, scammers, and people trying to profit off your dreams. Protect yourself. Don’t believe the hype. And most importantly, trust only yourself to guide your trading journey. Because in the end, your success depends on you—and no one else. Thank you for reading (I needed to let off some steam ^^) Daveatt
Education
by Daveatt
27
two buy positions on the DXY (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX)Here’s a structured plan for managing two buy positions on the DXY: --- 1. Entry Plan First Buy Position: Entry: 107.000 Likely Reason: Anticipation of strong support at this level, possibly near a significant technical or psychological level. Second Buy Position: Entry: 107.830 Likely Reason: Market reversal or breakout confirmation at this higher level. TVC:DXY 2. Risk Management Stop-Loss Levels: For the 107.000 position: Below 106.800 (to avoid a deeper pullback). For the 107.830 position: Below 107.500 (to account for short-term fluctuations). Position Sizing: Use smaller lot sizes for the second position if risk increases near resistance zones. --- 3. Take-Profit Strategy Conservative Targets: For both positions, a short-term take-profit can be set at 108.200, which may align with minor resistance. Aggressive Targets: Extend profit-taking to 108.500 or 109.000, depending on momentum and fundamental triggers. --- 4. Monitoring Key Levels Support Zones: Strong support at 107.000: Look for price consolidation here if it drops further. Resistance Zones: 108.000–108.200: Watch for profit-taking or reversal at these levels. 109.000: A more aggressive upside target.
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Top Trading Ideas of 2025: AI, Bitcoin, Stock Picks and PoliticsIf you’re extremely online and watching the blog of every investment bank, financial institution and markets-focused media outlet, you’ve probably seen a few of those already — year-ahead previews are just too enticing to pass on. With this Idea, we’re aiming to lay out what our traders care about the most — the big trading and investment trends that will drive a huge chunk of the buying and selling. While only a forecast, this type of outlook could help you to better prepare your trades and set your gaze upon the assets and categories that will slosh around billions upon billions next year. So let’s do it. 🤖 AI on the Horizon A thematic priority and one of the top investment trends in 2025 will undoubtedly be Nvidia artificial intelligence. AI is touted as the game changer of the tech industry and all big tech players are racing to seize as big a market share as they can. To get a feel for what may be coming, let’s look at what happened this year. According to technology-focused analyst firm Omdia, Microsoft MSFT was the biggest buyer of Nvidia’s NVDA flagship AI chip Hopper. (One of these babies will run you about $30,000.) Estimates point that the tech giant bought 485,000 Hopper chips (~ $15 billion ). It’s understandable because Microsoft is OpenAI’s biggest investor with about $13 billion jammed into the ChatGPT parent. Next in line for the Hopper chip in 2024 is Meta META with 224,000 units. Other big spenders for the AI-enabling tech include Tesla TSLA , Amazon AMZN and Google GOOGL . Next year, that upside trend is expected to pick up the pace with Hopper’s successor Blackwell — a next-generation AI chip , which has seen insane demand , according to Nvidia’s main man Jensen Huang. With all that AI buzz, investors will be closely following Nvidia’s every step for signs of whether the chip juggernaut could carry on the miraculous growth. ₿ Bitcoin is the New Orange What’s the new year without some orange-colored cryptocurrency? Bitcoin BTCUSD is now a $2 trillion beast ready to tear down every permabear’s gloom-and-doom forecast. So what can you expect to see in 2025? With Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the cryptocurrency industry is poised for deregulation (think, crypto companies finally getting bank accounts). The President-elect has set out to assemble a team of A-list venture capitalists , entrepreneurs and, frankly, billionaires. And with the Congress largely made up of crypto bros, digital-asset companies hope regulators will wave away a whole string of suits against them — Coinbase, Kraken and Binance have been carrying a target on their backs for years. Stripping down weighty rules will help companies expand services and establish bigger footprints, potentially powering Bitcoin’s valuation. Other than having banks take deposits or lend to crypto companies, something else can propel Bitcoin. The US government may soon have its very own Bitcoin strategic reserve . The vehicle will aim to collect a total of 1 million Bitcoin over a five-year time horizon. The goal: keep stacking and never sell. 🎯 The Game of Whack-a-Mole Here’s why stocks won’t be skyrocketing in 2025: the Federal Reserve just said it’s nearly done with lowering interest rates. After Fed boss Jay Powell announced another trim to borrowing costs Wednesday, he struck a cautious note saying that the US central bank is now projecting two rate cuts, down from a previous forecast of four. In other words, stock picking is back on the menu. It’s easy to feel smart — even a genius — when your trade is in profit together with the broader market. But true craftsmanship is best seen amid churning waters when markets are volatile, tough and choppy. No doubt there will be winners even if equities are moving sideways or looking down. But it’s hard to imagine that US stocks could pull off a third straight 20%+ annual gain (the S&P 500 SPX was up more than 24% in 2023 and is up 24% on the year so far). Also, the broad-based index is at a record high . So is the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC . Among the big factors that could contribute to a negative year for stocks are rate hikes, recession or stubborn inflation. All in all, stock pickers, this might just be your year! 🏛️ Power Plays and Market Sways President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda is pretty clear by now and he isn’t even officially sworn in. If it could be summed up in a sentence it would probably be “America, heck yeah.” Trump’s second four-year term is expected to usher in a new era of growth through an America-first approach, sweeping deregulation and tax cuts. All that mix of reflation policies threatens to flare up price pressures again. Add to that some hefty tariffs on US imports and you get a powerful concoction of “wait and see if this bursts in your face.” Inflation expectations have already crept up and the recent consumer price index readout for November does sound some alarm bells. If things are heating up, Trump’s moves may bring them to a boil — tariffs are inflationary and immigration control is inflationary. And so if the election win introduced animal spirits into the markets, the presidency starting next year will get a chance to make good on all the promises given by the President-elect (and expose some potential weaknesses). 📣 With that, we conclude the walk through what we think makes the most sense to grab headlines next year. What’s your take — do you think there are opportunities to be seized in 2025? Share your thoughts and let’s spin up a discussion!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
17
Rate cuts and their impact on the marketsRate cuts and their impact on the markets The Fed's decisions to cut interest rates, while seeking to stimulate the economy, have had a mixed effect on financial markets. On the one hand, these measures tend to favor equity assets by reducing funding costs and encouraging investment. On the other hand, in an environment of global uncertainty and expectations of recession, rate cuts have been interpreted by some investors as a sign of economic weakness, which has contributed to the fall in stock market indices. In this context, investors have migrated towards assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds, which has generated significant movements in sovereign debt yields. This behavior directly affects traders' strategies during the Quadruple Witching Hour, when position adjustment is usually more intense. Quadruple Witching Hour amid market declines With markets facing recent declines, the Quadruple Witching Hour could amplify volatility due to several factors: 1. Massive position adjustments: Investors looking to protect their portfolios or close open positions could generate sharp movements in stock and index prices. 2. Impact on liquidity: In an environment of uncertainty, liquidity could be reduced, making price movements even more pronounced. 3. Impact on specific sectors: Companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and real estate, could experience greater pressure due to changing investor expectations. Outlook and strategies In this environment, investors should be particularly attentive to: 1. Evolving expectations about monetary policy: Any changes in Fed language or economic data could influence market participants' decisions during the Quadruple Witching Hour. 2. Risk management: Using hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, can be key to mitigating the impact of volatility. 3. Opportunities in volatility: For more experienced traders, sharp price movements may offer opportunities to generate short-term profits. In conclusion, the Quadruple Witching Hour in the current environment of Fed rate cuts and market declines represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Careful planning and a clear understanding of the factors at play will be essential to navigate this period successfully. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ActivTrades
Dogecoin Analysis with Gann Fans and Key LevelsHello Dear Traders! This chart provides a detailed Gann-based analysis of Dogecoin against Tether (USDT) on the 1-hour timeframe. Below, I'll break down the significance of the levels, the Gann Fan setup, and the potential *Bart Simpson* pattern that might be forming. Let's dive in! --- ### 📈 **Gann Fan and Levels Explained** The Gann Fan lines radiate from a key pivot low on the chart, representing specific angles of price movement over time. These lines act as dynamic support and resistance levels, giving us a unique *"crystal ball"* into future price movements. Here's a breakdown of the levels on this chart: - **0° (0.0895):** Represents the lowest anchor point. This is a key level of historical support. - **45° (0.1316):** Critical support-resistance pivot point, often marking trend shifts. - **90° (0.1952):** First strong resistance zone to watch during rallies. - **135° (0.2743):** Mid-range resistance and a potential retracement level during corrections. - **180° (0.3599):** Acts as a strong magnet for price action in trending conditions. - **225° (0.4611):** Key breakout or reversal zone; pay attention if price crosses this. - **270° (0.5747):** Heavy resistance, likely to align with strong market reactions. - **315° (0.7008):** Could mark overextended rallies or extreme zones. - **360° (0.8394):** Maximum upward projection from the base, aligning with long-term targets. The combination of these levels with the green Gann Fan lines creates a visual framework for anticipating price action. --- ### 🤔 **Potential Bitcoin Bart Pattern in Play?** Looking at this chart, we see the early signs of a classic *Bart Simpson* pattern, often seen in crypto markets due to volatility. This pattern starts with a sharp rally (the "spike up"), followed by a consolidation phase at the top, and ends with a sharp drop back to the original levels (the "spike down"). #### Current Scenario: - The sharp rally to **0.4611** suggests the "head" of the Bart is in place. - Consolidation around the **180° level (0.3599)** adds credibility to the setup. - If we see a break below **0.3599**, this could confirm the pattern, potentially driving prices down towards the **90° level (0.1952)**. --- ### 🛠️ **How to Trade These Levels** 1. **For Long Trades:** - Look for price to respect the **180° level (0.3599)** as support. - Targets: **225° (0.4611)** and **270° (0.5747)**. - Place stop losses slightly below **135° (0.2743)**. 2. **For Short Trades:** - A confirmed break below **180° (0.3599)** could open opportunities. - Targets: **135° (0.2743)** and **90° (0.1952)**. - Stop losses above **225° (0.4611)**. --- ### 🌟 Final Thoughts The Gann setup on this chart serves as a powerful visualization tool, almost like a *crystal ball* guiding price action. Combined with the potential *Bart Simpson* pattern, this analysis highlights critical zones to watch for breakout or breakdown scenarios. What do you think? Will Dogecoin continue to rally, or is a retracement imminent? Share your thoughts in the comments! --- If you have any additions or questions, feel free to ask—happy trading! 🚀
by Magic_xD
7
BTC/USDT Analysis: Is a Key Reversal Brewing?Bitcoin's price action continues to intrigue traders as it consolidates within an ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe. The recent rejection from the channel's upper boundary at $108,000 indicates that bearish pressure might dominate the short term. Currently, BTC trades around $101,450, testing a critical support level near $102,000. Key Observations: Ascending Channel in Play: The structure highlights an upward trend, with BTC respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. The dotted midline has acted as a dynamic pivot, influencing price movement over recent weeks. Bearish Breakdown Potential: A clear break below $102,000 could lead BTC toward the next significant horizontal support at $98,236. This level aligns closely with the channel's lower boundary, making it a crucial zone for bulls to defend. Key Resistance Zone: If bulls manage to reclaim $103,000, BTC could retest the midline or even the $106,000 level. However, failure to sustain above the $102,000 support could accelerate a bearish trend. RSI Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence on the RSI suggests weakening bullish momentum, supporting the case for a deeper correction. Expected Scenarios: A retest of $98,000 would provide an excellent opportunity for bullish accumulation within the channel structure. If the price rebounds from the lower boundary, bulls may aim for $106,000-$108,000 in the medium term. A confirmed breakdown below $98,000 might invalidate the channel, opening doors for further downside to $94,000.
Short
by melikatrader94
7
Continued bearishness in crude oil pricesOn December 17, 2024, oil prices showed a slight stabilization following the drop in U.S. crude inventories and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut. However, gains were limited by expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of cuts in the coming months. Brent crude oil futures rose 20 cents, closing at $73.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 50 cents, reaching $70.58. Despite these increases, gains moderated after market close. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a drop in crude oil and distillate inventories, while gasoline inventories increased in the week ending December 13. In addition, total product supply, a key indicator of demand, grew to 20.8 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 662,000 barrels from the previous week. Despite the partial optimism around demand, crude oil prices fell briefly following the Fed's announcement to cut interest rates, although the pace of these cuts is expected to slow. The Fed projects only two additional rate cuts through the end of 2025, which could boost oil demand, but also dampen near-term expectations. On technical analysis, crude oil continues to lose value, with the price looking for the $68 area since the start of the European session. The POC mid-zone is around $70.20, and the RSI is highly oversold at 30%. The crossover of the 200-average over the 100-average reinforces the prospect of a bearish continuation, as anticipated in previous weeks. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
#USDJPY $USDJPY Rise after Monetary Policy Divergence...The USD/JPY continiues to produce. Latest: The USDJPY has seen an increase over the last three days due to several factors: Monetary Policy Divergence: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to maintain its interest rates, reflecting a dovish stance in contrast to the U.S. Federal Reserve's more hawkish approach. This divergence in monetary policy tends to strengthen the U.S. Dollar against the Yen since investors can borrow Yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding U.S. assets. FOMC Meeting Impact: The recent FOMC meeting indicated a slower pace of rate cuts for 2025, which typically supports a stronger U.S. Dollar. This hawkish cut by the Fed, alongside the BoJ's inaction, contributed to the USDJPY's upward movement. Market Reactions and Technical Levels: Following the FOMC and BoJ announcements, there was an immediate market reaction. The USDJPY broke higher post-BoJ press conference, indicating a breakout possibly influenced by both the Fed and BoJ decisions. Technical analysis suggests that if the pair maintains above certain levels, like 157, it could aim for higher extensions, showing strong market sentiment towards further appreciation of the USD against JPY. Although a pullback at this level would be healty. Speculation on Future Interventions: There's an anticipation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance might intervene at around the 160 level to protect the Yen, but historical interventions have been less effective, suggesting that the USDJPY could continue to rise if these levels are approached (Taking a look at the upper line yellow line at the chart, if this is tested, broaken and holds we could see a great incerease). My target would be at 160- 165 lvl for now if it holds its current price or finds support in event of an pullback at a key level. However always keep in mind, currency movements are also influenced by broader market sentiment, geopolitical events, and other economic indicators. This is not financial advice.
Long
by BaseLineTraders