Bitcoin Faces Rejection at Resistance: Short-Term Downsidehello guys.
Failed Breakout: Bitcoin attempted to break above the resistance zone around $69,400–$69,600 but was unable to sustain the move, indicating a potential lack of buying strength at these levels.
Broken Trendline: The price has already broken below a key ascending trendline, reinforcing the bearish bias in the short term.
Bearish Zone: The shaded pink area represents a strong resistance zone, which Bitcoin struggled to overcome. Sellers defended this zone effectively.
Potential Downside Target: With the rejection at resistance, the price may head toward the support area around $67,963–$67,934, as indicated by the green zone.
Lower High Formation: The lower high structure suggests that the trend could continue downward if the current pattern holds.
Beyond Technical Analysis
Elections aside, AUD/USD still looks oversoldImplied volatility has spiked for FX majors ahead of the US election, and it really could go either way for AUD/USD depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. But how much downside is left for the Aussie when taking market positioning, China data and the latest RBA statement into account?
MS
$SPY #IslandBoy #ComingSoon like $PLTR $TSLA $VFCCrystal ball telling me AMEX:SPY is gonna leave put buyer's stuck on an island in the coming weeks/months.
Higher Lows + Higher Highs = Uptrend intact
I always mention "Shakeout B4 Breakouts"
AMEX:SPY wedge + Election = WallofWorry/Fear (Buy when...?)
Tomorrow could be filled with more "fear" perhaps a vol spike, but I expect/hope for AMEX:SPY to hold this gap down range then Gap up Thorsday and put up a strong gap + hammer candle...
- Prophecies
PS; If looking for recent #Island examples check tickers in title. All recently putting up "Island Reversals" after earnings...
Election = Spy "Earnings"
Market Talk Once upon a time, in a world where numbers ruled the land, there was a legendary figure known as The Market. The Market was ancient—older than any civilization, wiser than any philosopher, and as unpredictable as the tides. It was made up of all the economic factors in existence: supply and demand, inflation and deflation, bull runs and bear traps, fear and greed. And although it had no gender, age, or human voice, The Market had a way of speaking to anyone willing to listen.
One day, a curious investor asked, "Oh, great Market, what secrets do you hold? Tell us about yourself."
The Market responded, its voice an invisible wave rippling through stock exchanges, algorithms, and boardrooms across the world.
"I have been here since the dawn of civilization," The Market said, echoing through the electronic hum of trading screens. "You measure my age in years, centuries, but I was born in the whispers of the first trade, the barter of a tool for food. I am older than your kingdoms, your empires. I have no age you can calculate, for my age is the heartbeat of human desire."
The investor nodded, captivated. "But why do you move the way you do? Why are you sometimes up, and other times down?"
"Ah," The Market chuckled, a low rumble heard in the rise and fall of stock prices. "I am driven by forces you may understand, yet never fully control. Supply and demand, fear and greed—these are my lifeblood. When fear spreads, I fall, and when hope rises, I soar. My movements are both wild and calculated, shaped by millions of decisions made every second. I am not a single entity; I am the collective mind of all who trade within me."
"But why must you be so volatile?" asked another trader, watching the numbers dance erratically on the screen.
"Because without change, there is no growth. Without risk, there is no reward. I am the measure of human ambition, innovation, and failure. My volatility is a reflection of all your hopes and dreams, fears and uncertainties."
"And will you ever stop?" asked a cautious observer, worried about recessions and bubbles.
The Market answered, "As long as people aspire to gain, as long as there is something worth exchanging, I shall continue. I do not stop, for I am the pulse of progress. Even in decline, I pave the way for a new beginning. Just as economies collapse and rise anew, so do I."
The Market fell silent, its invisible presence still lingering in the air. The investors left with a new understanding. They saw The Market for what it truly was—not just numbers and graphs, but the spirit of human ambition itself, timeless and infinite.
In the end, The Market was not just a system or a tool. It was a mirror, reflecting humanity back at itself. And as long as people dreamed, strived, and dared, The Market would be there, speaking in its own language, to those who dared to listen.
------Galelelo bull-----
GBPJPY, a rebound play is in order.GBPJPY, a fave of traders who value volatility recently corrected significantly to 181 range from the highs of 183.
Recent 4H metrics suggests a close fight between bull and bears -- with bulls having a slight edge now from the current range. A new base may have been formed already at this price range with notable net buying activity registered this past couple of days.
The pair is currently bouncing off a 0.5 FIB level, a major order block support.
Expect some attempt to reverse to the upside in the next coming days.
Spotted at 181.30
TAYOR.
Safeguard funds always.
WTI, back at major order block support -- BOUNCE expectedWTI is currently sitting at below 0.5 FIB level on a weekly data -- a key area where most buyers converge.
$65-70 area has been quite a solid order block support. It has been tested many times and oil keeps bouncing up from this range.
A bounce is expected from current price range. Accumulation has notably started increasing at the present levels.
Spotted at 69.0
TAYOR.
Safeguard capital always.
--------
RELATED NEWS: Reuters
Oil prices settle more than 3% higher after China rate cut
By Stephanie Kelly
NEW YORK, June 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed over 3% on Tuesday on hopes for growing fuel demand after China's central bank lowered a short-term lending rate for the first time in 10 months, boosting crude prices after steep losses the previous session.
The rate cut is aimed at adding momentum to a hesitant post-pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy and biggest crude importer.
Brent crude futures settled up $2.45, or 3.4%, to $74.29 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $2.30, or 3.4%, at $69.42 a barrel.
NG, prepping for a multi weekly gain come December 2023NG based on monthly data is registering very significant net buy volume at the current price range.
Seller's strength is certainly fading out based on thinning price volatility this past few days / weeks -- as shown on yellow price lines on chart.
NG is currently sitting at a strong major support at 2.0 to 2.5 area, a 1.0 FIB discount level -- this is where most buyers converge.
Initial trend shift has been spotted at the present price range.
Spotted at 2.50
TAYOR
Safeguard capital always.
Adjustment - gold price drops! Waiting for the new US president⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) remains positive on Monday as US election risks and Middle East tensions continue to support the safe-haven asset. However, stronger demand for the Greenback and rising US bond yields could limit Gold’s gains, as higher yields make non-yielding assets like Gold less appealing.
Investors are focused on Tuesday's US presidential election, with the market’s attention shifting to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Thursday. Given the election uncertainty, it’s anticipated that the Fed will opt for a standard 25 basis point rate cut, rather than a larger half-point easing.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price officially decreased - legalized adjustment with the US presidential election. The US economy will have a new breeze - boosting the economy and other investment areas. Gold will wait for the next interest rate information
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2757 - $2759 SL $2762 scalping
TP1: $2750
TP2: $2740
TP3: $2730
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2771 - $2773 SL $2778
TP1: $2765
TP2: $2750
TP3: $2740
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2717 - $2715 SL $2710
TP1: $2725
TP2: $2732
TP3: $2740
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
EUR and the month of JULY in the past 50 years! Check it out!We just entered a new month, and not just an ordinary month -- It's JULY!
And what's special about it? -- and its connection to EUR?
Based on 50 year chart history, JULY is EUR's favorite month to 'ascend' so to speak.
JULY seems to play an important role for the pair's price behavior. A lot of times, what comes after a correction -- is an upside reversal that falls most of the time on the month of JULY. This has happened multiple times in the past. It maybe a short term upside season, a major bullish one or an extended long continuation -- but it seems to bounce during those months.
We just concluded June, and we have entered the 'divine' month for EUR which is JULY. Based on the present price level, we have created a new base to ascend. Last friday's closing (June ending) was an indication of things to come. Going forward as we enter this month, with the last closing price -- it looks like we are heading towards the "expected" direction based on historical movements.
Of course this is not indicative of the pairs future price, but we can certainly be guided.
Just something to ponder about and an interesting way of looking at how fascinating and dynamic price behavior could be.'
The chart above is a HEXAMONTHLY (6-monthly) CHART
Spotted 1.09
TAYOR.
Safeguard capital always
Stuck in the Triangle? EUR/GBP's About to Break FreeAlright, let’s break down this EUR/GBP setup!
Looking at the daily, we see EUR/GBP recently had a strong bullish push, but now it’s hitting a bit of consolidation just above the daily support at 0.83950. That area has acted as a significant barrier before, so if price can stay above it, we might see another leg up. On the daily, the 21 EMA is below price, showing that buyers are still holding on, but it’s struggling to break out decisively above that 0.84242 level.
Switching down to the 4-hour, we can see that price is coiling up in a tight range, forming a triangle pattern. This setup is perfect for a breakout trade – we just need to see which direction it wants to move. If it breaks above the trendline around 0.84000, we could look for a buy, targeting the next resistance at 0.84242, and possibly higher if momentum kicks in. But if it breaks down below the 0.83950 support, then we’re likely looking at a sell with a target toward 0.83573.
So here’s the plan: wait for a solid breakout from this triangle pattern on the 4-hour. Look for an entry around the breakout area, keeping your SL just below the structure on either side. Remember, let the market show you the move; patience pays, especially with consolidation setups like this.
NZDUSD Is Approaching A Decent ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.59950 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.59950 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Today Market1. Nifty main index of 50 stock has crashed on Monday of 450 points.
2. As per analysis Nifty break the support of 24061 and reach the target 23860
3. After touch to the support it was rivers to 150 points and stable 23995 by down 309 point.
4. The next journey of nifty 50 has farm negative signal and if break the support of 23860 it will reached the target of 23600.
Hang Seng Short: Resistance at 20SMAFollowing my warning about Hang Seng on 2nd Oct regarding Hang Seng reaching an important price point, I have yet to publish another idea about this index. One of the reasons is to let the dust settles, the other is to observe what is happening in the US markets.
Now, I am convinced that the US market will be going down and it will pull global equities with it. Hang Seng is no exception. Technically speaking, I like to observe the 20 SMA. Hang Seng seems to be rejected at this SMA and thus I would say that any short will have a stop loss above the 20 SMA.
DAILY ANALYSIS - XAUUSD (TUES, 5th NOVEMBER 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News:
-ISM Services PMI
-Presidential Election
Analysis:
-Previous daily candle closed as week bullish
-No top wick on daily currently
-Looking for BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 2705
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days.
Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then.
February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses
July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse
September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts
September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy
November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm
Were are we today?
Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment.
Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis.
Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event).
Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again?
I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there.
I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
Doge coin favored by tech mogul turned politician.After the meteoric rise of the worlds first meme coin, does Elon musk still have grand plans for the doge token? I believe this upcoming election will bring many surprises and doge could benefit from the hype. Risk adverse traders should take heed for the volatility can be mind boggling.
Analyzing SMCI's Potential RecoveryCapitulation and Recovery:
Capitulation: A period of intense selling pressure that often marks the bottom of a downtrend.
Post-Capitulation Recovery: After a capitulation event, the stock may experience a relief rally as short-sellers cover their positions and long-term investors start accumulating.
Factors Affecting SMCI's Recovery:
Fundamental Factors:
Earnings Reports: Strong earnings reports can boost investor confidence and drive the stock price higher.
Revenue Growth: Continued revenue growth, especially in the AI and data center segments, is crucial.
Technological Innovations: SMCI's ability to innovate and introduce new products can influence investor sentiment.
Market Sentiment: Overall market conditions, especially the tech sector, can impact SMCI's performance.
Cautions and Considerations:
Market Volatility: The stock market is inherently volatile, and SMCI is no exception. Price fluctuations can be significant, especially in the short term.
Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
Risk-on Risk-off Market Snapshot, 05/11/2024Election Jitters: U.S. Presidential Race Fuels Risk-Off Sentiment Amid Policy Uncertainty and Global Tensions
The U.S. presidential election is significantly influencing risk-on and risk-off sentiment as investors brace for potential shifts in policy that could impact economic and market stability. With the election approaching, uncertainty around the potential outcomes and their implications for fiscal, trade, and regulatory policies is driving a more cautious, risk-off sentiment among market participants.
In typical election cycles, markets tend to exhibit volatility as investors anticipate changes in the policy environment. For 2024, there is particular focus on key issues such as tax policy, technology regulation, healthcare, and foreign policy—all of which could have far-reaching impacts on sectors like tech, healthcare, energy, and financial services. Market participants are also considering the candidates' approaches to fiscal stimulus, which may affect economic growth projections and thus influence the overall risk environment.
Additionally, recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing conflict in Ukraine are intensifying risk-off behavior. Investors are favoring safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, gold, and government bonds as they hedge against potential economic disruptions that might follow election results, especially if there are significant shifts in foreign policy.
However, specific sectors may also show risk-on tendencies if the anticipated policy shifts favor growth or deregulation in areas like infrastructure, clean energy, or technology. For example, market segments aligned with clean energy could see optimism, while regulatory uncertainties may weigh on tech stocks. Overall, the looming U.S. election is adding a layer of risk-off sentiment as investors weigh the prospects of economic shifts in a complex global landscape.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
US Elections impact on BitcoinHistorically, no matter who wins the elections, Bitcoin wins:
- Bitcoin’s supply capped at 21 million coins;
- Immutable monetary policy;
- While governments will continue to print money;
- And expanding government debt;
Volatility is only short-term.
Here's why:
Like Paul Tudor Jones said, "All roads lead to inflation".
Cash will always lose money over time BUT assets like stocks, Bitcoin and crypto will go up in value.
In the short term, crypto might perform a bit better if Donald Trump wins the elections. He seems that the big crypto corporations (Coinbase, XRP, a16z) donated millions to Trump in exchange for more crypto friendly regulations.
In the long term, it doesn't matter who wins the elections. In the long term, Bitcoin and crypto are likely to perform well both under Trump or Harris. Why? Because the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the US M2 money supply is 83%.