Short term sellIf Gold rejects resistance I can see price come back down after breaking support to the break of structure
Beyond Technical Analysis
Convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17Yo traders -
Let’s map out a convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17, 2025 $75 Call option — currently trading at $1.00, with the stock at $65.97 and only 18 days to expiry.
🔍 Step-by-Step Breakdown:
🧠 1. Basic Structure
You’re buying the LOAR Apr17 $75 call at $1.00.
This is a deep OTM bet (~13.7% above current price).
You’re betting on a short-term move to $75+, meaning volatility spike or news catalyst.
⚙️ 2. Convexity Setup
Convexity means:
Small risk, asymmetric reward
If LOAR stays flat or dips → you lose $1 per contract
If LOAR rips to $80+ → this option could return 5x to 10x+
LOAR Price at Expiry Option Intrinsic Value Profit/Loss
$66 (flat) $0 -$1.00
$70 $0 -$1.00
$75 (strike) $0 -$1.00
$77 $2.00 +$1.00
$80 $5.00 +$4.00 (5x)
$85 $10.00 +$9.00 (9x)
🧾 3. Chart + Sentiment Setup
Looking at the TradingView chart:
Price Action:
LOAR is basing around $66 after a steep downtrend — potential reversal pattern
Volume is light, but some buy pressure is visible
MACD:
Appears to be flattening and potentially crossing bullish
RSI:
~40s: Oversold-to-neutral zone. Could support upward bounce.
Earnings coming up (E icon):
Strong potential for a catalyst move
This setup enhances convexity, because earnings can produce gap moves that DOTM options profit from disproportionately.
🔮 4. Convexity Scenario Thesis (Narrative)
"LOAR has pulled back hard and is showing signs of base-building. Earnings are in 2–3 weeks. If guidance surprises to the upside — or macro tailwinds hit the sector — a short squeeze or re-rating toward $75–80 could occur. I’m risking $1 per contract for a shot at $5–10. If it doesn’t move, I accept the full loss."
This is a classic event-driven convexity play.
⚠️ 5. Risks & Considerations
Time decay is brutal: With only 18 days left, theta decay accelerates daily
IV Crush post-earnings could hurt even if the stock moves
You need a fast, strong move, ideally before or at earnings
Position sizing is critical: This is a "lottery ticket" — don’t over-allocate
✅ 6. Ideal for Your Strategy If:
You're making many small bets like this across tickers/catalysts
You’re not trying to be “right” often, but “big” occasionally
You have capital discipline and uncorrelated base assets
🧮 Position Size:
Option price = $1.00 per contract
You buy 100 contracts of the $75 call
Total risk = $100
Each $1.00 move above $75 = $100 profit per $1, since 100 contracts × 100 shares/contract = 10,000 shares exposure
📈 Upside Payoff Table
LOAR Price at Expiry Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100
$65–$74.99 $0.00 $0 -$100 -100%
$76 $1.00 $1 × 10,000 = $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900%
$77 $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900%
$80 $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900%
$85 $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900%
$90 $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900%
$100 $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900%
🧠 Interpretation
Max Loss: $100 (fixed, regardless of LOAR's move down or sideways)
Breakeven at Expiry: LOAR must hit $76.00
10x return if LOAR trades just $1 above strike
Massive asymmetry — you risk $100 for a shot at $10k–250k if LOAR rips on earnings or news.
📌 Real-World Considerations:
You might exit early if the option spikes in value before expiry (e.g., stock runs to $72 with 5 days left).
Liquidity may limit large size fills.
Volatility matters: IV spike pre-earnings or a big gap post-earnings increases your chance of profit.
📊 Convex Payoff Table for LOAR Apr17 $75 Call (100 Contracts, $100 Risk)
LOAR Price at Expiry % Move from $65.97 Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100
$65–$74.99 0% to +13.6% $0.00 $0 -$100 -100%
$76 +15.2% $1.00 $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900%
$77 +17.0% $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900%
$80 +21.3% $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900%
$85 +28.9% $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900%
$90 +36.4% $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900%
$100 +51.6% $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900%
🧠 Takeaway:
Even a 15% move turns your $100 into $10,000 — this is why convex trades are so powerful.
But the trade-off is probability: the odds of a 15–50%+ move in 18 days are low, which is why risk is capped and position sizing matters.
Is This the Calm Before the Storm on AUD/USD?The AUD/USD pair is currently consolidating within a sideways range, indicating indecision in the market. Price is fluctuating between key horizontal support near 0.6150 and resistance around 0.6450.
A rising trendline is providing strong dynamic support, keeping the pair from breaking lower, while a descending resistance line continues to limit upside momentum. As long as the pair remains within this range, no clear trend is confirmed.
A breakout above resistance could signal a bullish shift, while a breakdown below the trendline may open the door for further downside.
If you find our analysis helpful, don’t forget to like and follow us.
THANK YOU
DYOR, NFA
CHF/USD Weekly Forecast: Falling Wedge Breakout Towards TargetMarket Overview: Bullish Reversal in CHF/USD
The Swiss Franc (CHF) / U.S. Dollar (USD) currency pair has recently broken out of a Falling Wedge pattern, signaling a bullish trend reversal. This breakout is significant as it suggests the end of a prolonged downtrend and the beginning of a new upward momentum. Traders who capitalize on this pattern could benefit from potential long opportunities.
This analysis will cover the chart pattern, key levels, trading setup, risk management, and market sentiment, providing a comprehensive professional breakdown of the CHF/USD price action.
1. Chart Pattern: Falling Wedge – Bullish Breakout
A Falling Wedge is a well-known bullish reversal pattern that forms when price action creates lower highs and lower lows, but the slope of the highs is steeper than the lows. This leads to a narrowing structure that suggests sellers are losing strength, paving the way for a bullish breakout.
Pattern Characteristics:
✔ Prior Downtrend: The CHF/USD pair was in a sustained bearish trend before forming the wedge.
✔ Converging Trendlines: Price action squeezed into a wedge formation, showing decreasing volatility.
✔ Breakout Confirmation: The price successfully broke above the wedge resistance, signaling a shift in market sentiment.
✔ Retest Possibility: Price may revisit the breakout zone before continuing its uptrend.
A breakout from a falling wedge typically leads to a sharp bullish rally, making this a high-probability trading opportunity.
2. Key Technical Levels: Support & Resistance
Support Zones (Buying Interest):
🔵 1.0835 – 1.1000: This zone has acted as strong support where buyers stepped in aggressively.
🔵 1.1071 – 1.1095: A short-term support level that aligns with recent price action, making it a critical stop-loss area.
Resistance Zones (Profit Targets):
🔴 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance): Price has struggled at this level previously, making it the first target for a bullish move.
🔴 1.1600 (Major Resistance): If the uptrend continues, this level will act as the next major challenge.
🔴 1.1909 (Extended Target): A long-term resistance level where price has historically reversed.
3. Trading Strategy & Entry Setup
Now that we have identified the breakout and key levels, let’s design a strategic trading plan.
📌 Entry Points for Long Trades:
✅ Aggressive Entry: Buy at the current price after the breakout, expecting continuation.
✅ Conservative Entry: Wait for a retest of the wedge breakout zone or support near 1.1071 – 1.1095 before entering long.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement (Risk Management):
❌ Stop below 1.1071: This level is a strong support area, and a break below it may invalidate the bullish setup.
❌ Alternative Stop below 1.1000: A safer option for long-term traders to avoid stop-hunting.
📌 Take-Profit Levels:
🎯 Target 1: 1.1483 – 1.1550 (Primary Resistance Zone)
🎯 Target 2: 1.1600 (Stronger resistance where partial profits can be booked)
🎯 Target 3 (Extended): 1.1909 (For swing traders holding positions longer)
📌 Risk-Reward Ratio:
A proper Risk-to-Reward (R:R) ratio of at least 1:2 should be followed for efficient trade management. This means:
Risking 50 pips to gain 100 pips (or more) for profitable trading.
4. Market Sentiment & Confirmation Signals
✔ RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Above 50? Bullish confirmation.
Near 70? Overbought zone, potential pullback.
✔ MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Bullish Crossover? Strengthens buy signal.
Divergence? Confirms price momentum.
✔ Volume Analysis:
High volume on breakout? Confirms strong buying interest.
Low volume? Beware of false breakout.
✔ Fundamental Factors:
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy: If SNB maintains dovish policies, CHF could weaken, pushing CHF/USD higher.
US Federal Reserve Stance: A strong USD could slow CHF/USD gains.
5. Conclusion & Trading Plan
🔹 Summary of Trade Setup:
✅ Bullish breakout from Falling Wedge – high-probability long trade
✅ Retest of breakout zone may offer better entry
✅ Major support at 1.1000 – 1.1071
✅ Targeting 1.1550 – 1.1909 range
🚀 Final Trading Plan:
📌 Buy CHF/USD above 1.1100 – 1.1150
📌 Stop-loss below 1.1071
📌 Take Profit 1: 1.1550
📌 Take Profit 2: 1.1600
📌 Take Profit 3 (Swing Trade): 1.1909
📢 Pro Tip:
Always confirm breakout volume before entering.
Monitor economic events affecting CHF & USD.
Use proper risk management (1-2% of account per trade).
📊 Final Verdict:
🔥 CHF/USD is in a bullish setup after breaking out from a Falling Wedge. Traders should look for buy opportunities on pullbacks while targeting resistance levels. 🚀
$NQ CorrectionPrice clearly is going towards Sellside Liquidity.
The standard deviation shows -2 to -2.5 is where price would reverse from and its also aligned with Sellside liquidity.
Idea: Bearish.
EURJPY Weekly Forecast: Triple Bottom Breakout & Bullish Target Overview of the Chart & Market Structure
The EUR/JPY daily timeframe chart presents a Triple Bottom Pattern, a powerful bullish reversal formation that suggests a potential shift in market sentiment. This pattern occurs when price tests a key support level three times and fails to break lower, indicating strong buying interest at that zone.
Historically, a Triple Bottom leads to a significant trend reversal as sellers lose strength and buyers gain control. If confirmed by a breakout above resistance, this setup could provide a high-probability trading opportunity for swing traders and position traders.
Key Chart Components & Price Action Analysis
1. Triple Bottom Formation
The three bottoms marked on the chart represent repeated failed attempts by sellers to push the price lower:
Bottom 1 (August 2024): The first rejection from the support zone (~155.000) led to a temporary bounce.
Bottom 2 (October 2024): Price retested the same level, but buyers stepped in again, preventing a breakdown.
Bottom 3 (March 2025): The final test of support confirmed a strong accumulation zone, setting the stage for a potential bullish breakout.
In technical analysis, a Triple Bottom is considered a stronger reversal signal than a Double Bottom, as it represents prolonged buying pressure at key levels.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
Support Zone (~155.086): This level has been tested multiple times and remains a solid demand zone, where buyers have consistently entered the market.
Resistance Zone (~166.000): This level represents the neckline of the pattern, which must be breached to confirm a bullish reversal.
Breakout Target (~179.233): If price breaks out above 166.000, the projected target is set at 179.233, based on the height of the Triple Bottom pattern.
Trading Strategy & Entry Plan
1. Entry Point – Waiting for Confirmation
A buy trade should be initiated ONLY after a confirmed breakout above the resistance level (~166.000). Traders should wait for a daily candle close above this level, preferably with high volume, to confirm the breakout.
2. Stop Loss Placement
A stop-loss should be placed below the third bottom (support level) at 155.086 to minimize risk.
This placement ensures that if price invalidates the pattern by moving below the support level, the trade is exited early.
3. Profit Target Calculation
The measured move technique is applied to estimate the target. The height of the pattern (distance from support to resistance) is projected upward from the breakout point.
Target price: 179.233, aligning with historical resistance.
4. Risk-to-Reward Ratio & Position Sizing
The risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) for this setup is favorable, making it an attractive swing trade opportunity.
Traders should adjust position sizes based on risk tolerance, ensuring proper money management principles are applied.
Additional Confirmation Factors
1. Volume Analysis
A breakout with increasing volume will confirm strong bullish momentum.
Weak volume during breakout could indicate a false breakout, requiring caution.
2. RSI & Momentum Indicators
RSI trending above 50 suggests growing bullish strength.
Bullish divergence on RSI or MACD would add further confidence to the trade.
3. Retest of Resistance as Support
Often, after breaking resistance, price retests the breakout level before moving higher.
This could offer a secondary entry opportunity for traders who miss the initial breakout.
Potential Risks & Market Conditions to Watch
False Breakouts – If price fails to sustain above resistance, the pattern could be invalidated.
Macroeconomic Events – Major news events, such as ECB or BOJ policy decisions, could impact EUR/JPY movement.
Geopolitical Uncertainty – Unexpected events may cause volatility and deviation from technical patterns.
Conclusion – High-Probability Bullish Setup
The Triple Bottom Pattern in EUR/JPY is shaping up as a strong bullish reversal setup. If the price successfully breaks above 166.000, a rally toward 179.233 is expected.
📌 Trading Plan Recap:
✅ Entry: Buy above 166.000 (confirmed breakout).
✅ Target: 179.233 (measured move projection).
✅ Stop Loss: 155.086 (below support).
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable for swing traders.
This setup aligns well with technical and price action strategies, making it an attractive trade idea for the upcoming weeks.
$BTC HTF IdeaLooks like the starting of "Major Correction"
If the price goes above $93k, there are chances CRYPTOCAP:BTC could make a new ATH, if not 40s seem to be the bottom before the next rally.
Neutral Thoughts.
GBPUSD Dusting 350+ PIPS in Choppy Waters - Breakout is Brewing?Technical / Chart Analysis:
Double Top Formation: The chart clearly exhibits a potential double top pattern around the 1.30564 resistance level. This is a bearish reversal pattern that suggests a potential trend change from bullish to bearish.
Breakdown of Uptrend: The preceding price action shows an uptrend, which has now been halted by the double top.
Key Support Level: The most crucial level to watch is the support around 1.28642. A confirmed break below this level would validate the double top pattern and signal a potential strong move downwards.
Monthly Performance: January saw a +180 pip move, followed by February with a +230 pip gain. This demonstrates the potential for significant profits in GBPUSD through swing trading.
Swing Analysis: February's +230 pip move consisted of 3 upward swings and 2 downward swings, highlighting the importance of capturing both upward and downward momentum in this pair due to the Choppy Price Action.
Conclusion:
FX:GBPUSD is at a critical juncture. The potential double top formation suggests a bearish bias, but confirmation is needed. Traders should closely monitor the key support level at 1.28642 for a potential breakdown and look for LONG Trades on breaking key levels to the Upside
What are your thoughts on GBPUSD's potential for swing trading? Do you see a breakdown or a bounce? Share your analysis and comments below!
EUR/GBP Weekly Forecast: Double Bottom Pattern, Bullish ReversalOverview of the Chart
This is a EUR/GBP daily chart, showcasing a Double Bottom Pattern, which is a classic bullish reversal formation in technical analysis. The pair has been in a downtrend for several months, but recent price action indicates a potential shift in momentum.
The double bottom pattern consists of two distinct lows (Bottom 1 & Bottom 2) at nearly the same level, forming a W-shaped structure. This suggests that sellers attempted to push the price lower twice but failed both times due to strong buying pressure at the support zone.
As the price starts to rise from the second bottom, the neckline resistance becomes a crucial level to watch. A confirmed breakout above this neckline would validate the pattern and signal a potential bullish rally.
Chart Breakdown & Key Components
1. Double Bottom Pattern Explanation
The first bottom formed in December 2024, marking the lowest price point where buyers stepped in.
The second bottom formed in March 2025, confirming strong demand in the support zone.
The pattern suggests bearish exhaustion, as sellers were unable to push the price lower.
The neckline at ~0.84778 acts as a key breakout level. Once price moves above it, the bullish reversal is confirmed.
🔹 Why is this pattern important?
It signals a trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
It attracts buying interest as traders recognize the formation.
The measured move suggests a potential target of 0.87307, aligning with previous resistance levels.
2. Key Support & Resistance Zones
✅ Support Zone (0.82249 - 0.82458)
This level has been tested twice, making it a strong demand area.
Buyers aggressively defended this zone, preventing further downside.
A break below this level would invalidate the bullish setup.
✅ Neckline Resistance (~0.84778)
This is the breakout level that confirms the double bottom pattern.
A strong bullish daily candle closing above 0.84778 would indicate a trend shift.
The price may retest this level after breaking out, offering a second entry opportunity.
✅ Major Resistance & Target Areas
0.86251 → The first major resistance zone, where price may face some selling pressure.
0.87307 → The final target based on the pattern projection, aligning with historical resistance.
3. Trading Setup & Execution Plan
🔹 Entry Strategy (Breakout Confirmation)
Enter a buy position after the price breaks and closes above the neckline (~0.84778).
A retest of the neckline provides a second chance to enter at a better price.
Look for high volume confirmation on the breakout for additional confidence.
🔹 Stop Loss Placement (Risk Management)
Place the stop-loss below 0.82249, just under the support zone.
This ensures protection against false breakouts.
Avoid placing the stop too tight, as price fluctuations can trigger early exits.
🔹 Take Profit Levels (Reward Calculation)
First Target: 0.86251 (Intermediate Resistance Level)
Final Target: 0.87307 (Measured Move Projection)
Partial profits can be taken at 0.86251, while runners target 0.87307.
🔹 Risk-Reward Analysis
Entry near 0.84778, stop loss below 0.82249, target at 0.87307.
This setup offers a risk-to-reward ratio (R:R) of over 3:1, making it a highly favorable trade.
4. Market Sentiment & Potential Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (High Probability) ✅
Price successfully breaks above the neckline at 0.84778.
Retests the neckline and holds as new support, leading to strong bullish momentum.
Moves toward 0.86251 first, then extends to 0.87307.
This scenario aligns with technical confirmation & volume breakout strategy.
Bearish Scenario (Low Probability) ❌
Price fails to break the neckline and faces rejection.
The pair revisits the support zone (0.82249 - 0.82458) for a third test.
If the support breaks, it could invalidate the bullish setup, leading to continued downtrend.
5. Final Thoughts & Summary 🎯
✅ Pattern Identified → Double Bottom, signaling bullish reversal.
✅ Breakout Level → Watch for confirmation above 0.84778.
✅ Risk Management → Stop loss below 0.82249.
✅ Profit Target → 0.86251 (Partial Profit), 0.87307 (Final Target).
✅ Trade Plan → Buy on breakout, retest entry for better positioning.
🔥 This is a high-probability bullish setup! Watch for breakout confirmation before entering a trade.
(XAG/USD) weekly Forcast – Double Top Breakdown & Bearish SetupThis detailed technical analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe highlights a potential bearish reversal forming through a Double Top pattern. This setup suggests that Silver could be gearing up for a major decline, provided key confirmation levels are met. Let’s break it down thoroughly.
📌 1. Understanding the Chart Pattern – Double Top Formation
A Double Top is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after an extended uptrend, signaling that buyers are losing strength and sellers are taking control.
🔹 Key Phases of the Double Top:
1️⃣ First Top (Top 1)
Silver initially rallied to a major resistance zone ($34.5 - $35).
The price failed to break higher, leading to a correction.
This rejection signals heavy selling pressure at this level.
2️⃣ Pullback to the Neckline ($28.5 - $29)
After the first peak, the price retraced to a critical support area known as the neckline.
This level acts as a decision point—either price bounces or breaks lower.
3️⃣ Second Top (Top 2) – Bull Trap?
Silver made another attempt to break through $34.5 - $35, but once again, sellers defended this level.
The failure to set a new higher high confirms weakness, forming the second peak.
This second rejection adds credibility to the Double Top pattern, increasing the likelihood of a bearish move.
4️⃣ The Crucial Neckline Test
The neckline around $28.5 - $29 is the most critical level to watch.
A clean daily close below this level would confirm the breakdown and trigger a strong bearish trend.
📍 2. Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
🔴 Resistance Level ($34.5 - $35) – Strong Selling Zone
This area has repeatedly rejected price advances, indicating high supply.
A breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish setup.
🔵 Support & Neckline ($28.5 - $29) – The Make-or-Break Zone
A break below this level would complete the Double Top pattern and confirm the bearish trend.
If buyers defend this area, Silver could see short-term consolidation before another breakout attempt.
🎯 Target Price ($22 - $23) – Where Silver Could Be Headed
The measured move (distance from top to neckline) suggests a potential drop to $22 - $23.
This aligns with historical support zones, making it a reasonable target.
🚨 Stop Loss Area ($35.2 - $35.5) – Risk Management
If Silver invalidates the pattern and closes above $35.2 - $35.5, the bearish setup is no longer valid.
Traders should cut losses early if price regains bullish momentum.
📊 3. Trading Setup & Execution Plan
🔻 Bearish Trading Plan (Short Entry):
✅ Entry Point:
Enter a short position after a confirmed neckline break below $28.5 - $29.
Wait for a break-and-retest of this level to confirm the bearish move.
✅ Stop Loss:
Place stop loss above $35.2 - $35.5, just beyond the resistance level.
This protects against false breakouts and sudden bullish reversals.
✅ Take Profit Targets:
Primary target: $24.5 - $25 (first support zone).
Final target: $22 - $23 (measured move completion).
📉 4. Market Sentiment & Technical Outlook
📌 Why This Setup is Important:
The Double Top pattern is a well-established bearish signal.
Price failed to create a new high, showing that buying momentum is fading.
The neckline breakdown will confirm that sellers are in control, pushing price lower.
📌 What Could Invalidate This Setup?
If Silver breaks and closes above $35.5, it would signal that bulls have regained strength.
A strong rally above this level could send Silver towards $37 - $38 instead.
🔎 Final Thoughts – Will Silver Collapse or Hold?
The chart suggests a bearish bias, but confirmation is key!
A breakdown below $28.5 - $29 would activate the Double Top pattern, leading to a potential drop.
If Silver bounces off the neckline, then we might see consolidation or a reversal instead.
🚀 What’s your view? Will Silver break down or bounce back? Share your thoughts below! 🚀
Gold’s Next Move: Breaking New Highs or a Short-Term Pullback?What can we expect next for gold?
Weekly time frame
Gold continues to demonstrate strong bullish momentum, with no significant signs of weakness on the higher time frames. The weekly structure remains intact, forming higher highs and higher lows, signaling a continuation of the uptrend.
Fibonacci analysis shows a clear break and retest of the 1.414 level, which now acts as a support zone. The next significant resistance levels, according to Fibonacci projections, are 3111 and 3128. This bullish outlook is further supported by a trend line break and successful retest, reinforcing the potential for further upward movement.
Daily Time Frame
On the daily chart, Gold remains resilient, showing no indications of a major reversal. Instead, the price has broken and retested a trend line, leaving behind a strong daily demand zone.
A bull flag formation has emerged, further validating a potential continuation to the upside.
If fundamental conditions continue to favor Gold, this bullish technical pattern suggests a high probability of further gains.
4 hr time frame
While the larger trend remains bullish, the 4-hour time frame suggests a potential short-term pullback before further upside continuation.
Gold is currently trading at the top of a bullish channel, indicating that a retracement could occur towards the channel’s midpoint.
The 50% retracement level of the channel aligns with a break of structure and previous support, making it a key level to watch.
Fibonacci analysis on this structure also highlights the 4-hour demand zone aligning with the golden zone, reinforcing a possible re-entry for long positions.
Meaning we can wait for Price to come back to 3059 resistance seen better here on the 1 hr time frame.
The 3059 level emerges as a crucial pivot point, aligning with multiple confluences:
This level represents the 50% retracement of the bullish channel.
It coincides with a previous resistance zone now turning into support.
If Gold retraces to this zone, we can anticipate a strong bullish continuation towards the weekly Fibonacci targets at 3111 and 3128.
A stop-loss below the 4-hour and 1-hour demand zones, combined with the daily Fibonacci golden zone, would offer a well-structured trade setup with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Fundamental Factors Supporting Gold’s Bullish Outlook
While technical analysis provides the blueprint for potential price action, fundamental factors play a crucial role in sustaining Gold’s momentum. Here are the key macroeconomic drivers to consider:
1. Inflation & Interest Rates: Gold remains a favored asset in times of inflationary pressures. With recent CPI data showing persistent inflation concerns, market participants anticipate potential delays in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This uncertainty supports Gold’s safe-haven appeal.
2. Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, continue to drive demand for Gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
3. Central Bank Demand: Central banks have been accumulating Gold reserves, particularly China and India, which adds sustained buying pressure.
4. U.S. Dollar & Treasury Yields: The inverse correlation between Gold and the U.S. dollar remains a significant factor. Any signs of dollar weakness or declining bond yields could further propel Gold’s upward trajectory.
$NQ IdeaWhen analyzing the NQ weekly chart, we observe that the price has consumed internal liquidity in the premium region of the range and closed in a way that favors the continuation of the bearish movement. Given this, we believe the next **Draw on Liquidity** will be the weekly double bottom located just below.
However, since the market has experienced a sharp decline without corrections, there is a possibility of buying opportunities before the downtrend resumes. As we are in a discounted region on the weekly chart, the price may seek momentum toward the premium region, capturing **buyside liquidity** as fuel for the continuation of the bearish movement.
It is important to highlight that we must wait for the market to open and observe its initial movement to better define our trading strategy.
BTCUSDBitcoin landing to 74k
summary economic projections still optimistic fed cut rate 3.9
in a year last cycle for bitcoin.
times good to buy #BTCUSD in last Quarter 3 (september)
How Institutional Capital Is Reshaping the Bitcoin MarketThe Evolution of Bitcoin as an Institutional Asset
Bitcoin has undergone a fundamental shift. Once viewed as a speculative retail-driven asset, it has now become a key instrument for institutional capital. The introduction of CME Bitcoin futures marked the beginning of this transformation, providing hedge funds, asset managers, and corporates with a regulated vehicle for exposure.
Institutional participation has fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s market structure—bringing greater liquidity, deeper price discovery, and a more defined risk profile. However, it has also introduced a new layer of macro-driven volatility, as capital flows are increasingly dictated by monetary policy, risk sentiment, and global liquidity cycles.
COT Data: A Window into Institutional Strategy
One of the most effective tools for understanding institutional positioning in Bitcoin futures is the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report categorizes market participants into three distinct groups:
🔹 Commercials (Institutions & Corporates)
🔹 Non-Commercials (Hedge Funds & Proprietary Traders)
🔹 Non-Reportables (Retail & Small Traders)
Key Market Dynamics
1. Institutional Hedging: Risk Management Over Speculation
Large financial institutions and corporate entities—categorized as commercial traders—consistently maintain net short positions in Bitcoin futures. This does not indicate bearish sentiment but rather reflects standard risk management strategies. Just as energy firms hedge oil exposure or multinational corporations hedge currency risk, institutions use Bitcoin derivatives to offset exposure to the spot market. (the commercials are largely buying "over-the-counter" while selling BTC at exchange signaling a bullish outlook).
As a result, institutional activity adds an element of market stability, reducing disorderly price swings driven by speculative retail flows. However, their presence also means that Bitcoin, like other financialized assets, is now subject to broader macroeconomic risk factors.
2. Hedge Funds as Volatility Drivers
Hedge funds and proprietary trading desks—classified as non-commercial traders—play a far more active role in price discovery. Their positioning behavior closely correlates with trend momentum, with leveraged funds aggressively increasing long exposure in bull markets and shifting to short positions during downturns.
The growing role of hedge funds has amplified Bitcoin’s volatility, as rapid position changes in futures markets create spillover effects in the spot market. As Bitcoin becomes increasingly integrated with traditional finance, these flows are now influenced by central bank policy, liquidity conditions, and cross-asset correlations.
3. Retail Traders as Contrarian Indicators
Retail positioning—reflected in the non-reportables segment of the COT report—has historically served as a contrarian signal. Retail traders tend to buy late in rallies and panic sell in downturns, mirroring behavioral patterns observed in equity and commodity markets.
When retail long positioning reaches extremes, it has often coincided with local market tops. Conversely, sharp reductions in retail exposure have frequently preceded institutional accumulation phases. Understanding these positioning shifts offers insight into potential inflection points in Bitcoin’s price cycle.
Strategic Implications for Investors
📌 Bitcoin Is Now a Macro-Driven Asset
The growing institutionalization of Bitcoin means its price action is increasingly correlated with monetary policy cycles, risk sentiment, and cross-asset capital flows. Investors must now evaluate Bitcoin through the same macro lens as equities, commodities, and FX markets.
📌 Hedge Fund Flows Will Remain a Dominant Volatility Driver
While institutional adoption has increased market depth, speculative hedge fund activity ensures that Bitcoin’s volatility remains structurally high. Understanding hedge fund positioning in CME futures is now crucial for understanding short-term price swings.
📌 Retail Capitulation Often Marks Institutional Entry Points
Historically, retail traders have entered long positions at local highs and capitulated near market lows. Tracking non-reportable positions in COT data can provide contrarian signals, helping investors identify optimal entry and exit points.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s transformation into an institutional-grade asset has introduced both stability and complexity to its market structure. CME Bitcoin futures positioning plus ETF inflows now serves as a key barometer for institutional sentiment, risk appetite, and capital flows.
As Bitcoin continues its integration into global financial markets, investors must move beyond traditional retail-driven narratives and adopt a more sophisticated approach to analyzing institutional flows, macroeconomic trends, and cross-market correlations.
Gold Bullish Frenzy? Watch for Reversal SignalsAt present, it seems that the situation for the bulls is promising. However, the market is not necessarily so. This kind of behavior to induce more long positions is quite normal in the market.
Market makers often operate in a strategic way. After they have reaped the profits from the bulls, it's highly likely that the next target will be the bears.
Looking at the gold market specifically, the price of gold is currently at a high level and is bound to decline. This frenzied bullish trend simply cannot be sustained, and this is an inevitable outcome. The current gold price has seriously deviated from its normal track. One could even
say that it has completely derailed or "strayed from the norm". Such a situation is clearly unreasonable, and a return to a reasonable level is inevitable.
I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Euro has experienced a downward trend in the current trading session, surpassing the Mean Support level of 1.078, where an intermediate price reversal occurred. The analysis indicates that the Eurodollar is expected to retest the Mean Resistance level at 1.086, with a possible resistance level marked at 1.095. A downward momentum may be initiated from either the Mean Resistance of 1.086 or 1.095.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
Bitcoin underwent several significant peaks as it completed the Interim Coin Rally 88400. Subsequently, it experienced a decline, moving towards the Mean Support 82500, with the possibility of extending its trajectory to retest the previously completed Outer Coin Rally 78700. An upward momentum may be initiated from the Mean Support of 82500 or the Key Support of 79000/completed Outer Coin Dip of 78700.
BTC in 17 April 2025Potential Major Move on Thursday, April 17, 2025 📍
📊 Based on an analysis of historical Bitcoin chart averages and similar patterns, there is a likelihood of a significant price movement on this date.
This analysis is conducted using technical analysis and a detailed examination of Bitcoin’s movement averages. It suggests that approximately every 150 days after the start of a neutral trend, we can expect a sharp upward or downward move that sets the stage for the main trend in the future.
📅 As of the current date, March 29, 2025, there are about 18 days left until this significant event.
You can follow the results of this analysis and the conducted review on TradingView on the specified date.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish TargetChart Overview:
The provided EUR/USD daily chart displays a well-structured Rising Wedge pattern, which eventually led to a significant bearish breakdown. The analysis highlights key levels, including resistance, support, stop loss, and a downside target, all of which contribute to a well-planned trade setup. The market structure suggests a strong bearish continuation, targeting lower price levels based on technical projections.
1. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation & Breakdown
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price creates higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the trendlines indicates weakening bullish momentum. This pattern is often a signal of upcoming bearish price action once a breakout occurs.
Pattern Breakdown Analysis:
The price moved inside the wedge, showing a gradual upward trend with declining momentum.
Upon reaching a key resistance level, price faced strong rejection (marked with a red circle).
The bearish breakdown below the wedge confirmed the pattern, leading to a sharp decline.
A retest of the broken wedge followed before continuing downward.
This confirms a classic bearish trend reversal, making it a strong technical setup.
2. Key Levels and Trade Setup:
🔹 Resistance Level (Major Supply Zone)
The resistance zone (highlighted in beige) acted as a strong supply area, where buyers lost control.
Price reached this resistance multiple times but failed to sustain above it.
A bearish reversal initiated from this level, marking the beginning of a downward trend.
🔹 Support Level (Key Demand Zone)
The support zone (also highlighted) represents a major demand area where price previously reversed.
This level aligns with historical price action, making it a critical area to monitor for potential reactions.
🔹 Stop Loss Placement
A stop loss is placed above the previous high within the resistance zone to protect against false breakouts.
If price invalidates the breakdown and moves above this level, the bearish setup would no longer be valid.
🔹 Price Target Projection
The breakdown suggests a potential drop towards 1.00874, as indicated by the 100% measured move.
This aligns with previous historical support, making it a realistic downside target.
3. Trade Execution Plan: How to Trade This Setup?
📌 Entry Strategy:
Traders can enter short after confirmation of the breakdown and a potential retest.
A sell position can be initiated around the resistance turned support after a pullback rejection.
📌 Stop Loss Strategy:
A stop loss should be set above the resistance zone (around 1.12208) to minimize risk.
This ensures protection against a bullish breakout invalidation.
📌 Take Profit Strategy:
The first take profit target is set at the support level near 1.04498.
The final take profit target is at 1.00874, which aligns with the full measured move projection.
4. Conclusion & Market Sentiment
🔸 Bearish Market Bias – The breakdown of the rising wedge confirms strong bearish momentum.
🔸 Key Resistance Held Strong – The price was unable to break above, confirming seller dominance.
🔸 Downside Target Aligns with Previous Support Levels – A confluence of technical signals supports further decline.
Final Thought:
This chart presents a high-probability bearish trade setup in EUR/USD. The combination of a rising wedge breakdown, clear resistance rejection, and a defined downside target makes it an ideal short-selling opportunity. Traders should watch for price action confirmations and risk management strategies before executing trades.
🚨 Risk Disclaimer: Always apply proper risk management and confirm signals before trading. Market conditions may change, so monitoring price behavior is crucial for trade adjustments.
JPY/USD Weekly Forecast – Falling Wedge Breakout & Bullish MoveChart Overview
This chart presents a technical analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the U.S. Dollar (USD) on a daily timeframe, published on TradingView. The setup is based on a Falling Wedge pattern, which has led to a bullish breakout, signaling a potential price rally. Let's break it down step by step.
1️⃣ Identifying the Pattern – Falling Wedge Formation
The primary pattern identified in the chart is a Falling Wedge, which is a well-known bullish reversal pattern.
Characteristics of the Falling Wedge in this Chart:
Two downward-sloping trendlines (black lines) forming a wedge shape.
Price makes lower highs and lower lows, but the distance between highs and lows gradually narrows.
The breakout occurs when price closes above the upper trendline, confirming a potential uptrend.
Key Observations:
✅ The pattern starts forming around September 2024 and continues until December 2024.
✅ A breakout occurs at the end of December 2024, confirming bullish momentum.
✅ After breaking out, the price retests the wedge's upper boundary, acting as new support before continuing upward.
2️⃣ Support & Resistance Zones – Key Price Levels
Support Level:
The support zone is marked in a beige rectangle at the bottom of the chart.
This is where buyers repeatedly stepped in, preventing further decline.
The price touched this area multiple times before reversing upwards, making it a strong demand zone.
Resistance Level:
The resistance zone is identified at the top of the chart (shaded beige area).
This level represents previous price peaks, where selling pressure was strong.
The price is expected to face some resistance when approaching this zone.
3️⃣ Trend Reversal Confirmation & Bullish Structure
After breaking out of the falling wedge, the price has started forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating an uptrend.
Key Trend Indicators:
✔ Curved blue dashed line suggests an upward trajectory, confirming a rounded bottom reversal.
✔ Price is following a trendline support, validating bullish sentiment.
✔ Momentum is strong, and buyers are in control after the breakout.
4️⃣ Trading Setup – Entry, Stop Loss & Take Profit
This analysis is structured into a trading plan with clear risk management.
📌 Entry Point (Buy Confirmation)
Entry is ideal on a retest of the breakout zone or a continuation of the bullish structure.
The recent higher low serves as a great point to confirm trend continuation.
📌 Stop-Loss Placement
Stop-loss is placed at 0.006465 (marked in blue), below the latest support.
This level ensures protection against false breakouts.
📌 Take Profit Target
The target is set at 0.007128, aligning with historical resistance.
If momentum remains strong, the price might push even higher.
5️⃣ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) & Trade Justification
Risk-to-Reward Analysis:
Stop-Loss: 0.006465 (below support)
Entry Price: Around 0.006671
Target Price: 0.007128
Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:2.5, meaning for every $1 risked, there's a $2.5 potential gain.
Trade Justification:
✔ Falling Wedge breakout is confirmed.
✔ Retest of broken resistance turned support gives an ideal entry.
✔ Bullish trend structure supports the upside move.
✔ Well-defined stop-loss and take-profit levels provide controlled risk exposure.
6️⃣ Final Thoughts & Conclusion
📌 This is a textbook bullish setup based on a Falling Wedge breakout. The combination of pattern breakout, trend structure, and strong support makes this a high-probability trade.
📌 Potential Risks to Watch:
If price fails to hold above stop-loss, it could indicate bullish weakness.
Major macroeconomic news or fundamental events can shift momentum.
📌 Overall Bias: ✅ Bullish towards the 0.007128 target, as long as the price remains above key support zones.
Weekly Market Analysis - 29th March 2025 (DXY & EURUSD Only)Here is my DXY & EURUSD analysis for the upcoming week and month.
I share what I think will happen in terms of anticipating price using the concepts of liquidity and efficiency as mostly taught by ICT.
I hope you find it useful in your perspective of the market.
- R2F Trading
