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Why Tariffs & Why Now?Trump's tariffs aim to reshape international trade. They target imports from China, Mexico, and Canada starting February 1. The president sees tariffs as both a policy tool and a growing revenue stream. By imposing fees on foreign goods, he hopes to protect U.S. industries and encourage fair trade practices. U.S. manufacturers face an uneven playing field when compared to foreign counterparts like those in Mexico and China, due to differences in regulations and quality controls. For instance, China doesn’t have strict regulations like OSHA, which ensures worker safety and environmental standards in the U.S. Additionally, Chinese manufacturers often don't face the same level of quality control scrutiny that domestic manufacturing companies do. These disparities make it difficult to directly compare commodities, as U.S. manufacturers shoulder higher costs to comply with regulations, while foreign manufacturers benefit from fewer restrictions. As a result, domestic manufacturers and distributors struggle to compete on price, which is one of the reasons tariffs are viewed as protecting national strategic interest. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a CNBC interview today from Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum is taking place said, “I would put in perspective: If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it.” Citation: www.cnn.com Tariffs are not new to Trump’s strategy. The trade war with China in 2018 established a framework for using tariffs to gain leverage. This latest round builds on that approach, with broader goals for economic influence. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The reasoning ties to China’s fentanyl production and export practices. This decision follows conversations with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump urged stricter measures against fentanyl production and shipping, linking it to broader trade concerns. American businesses already face up to 25% tariffs on many Chinese imports. These new fees would add further strain to supply chains, raising prices for consumers. However, it will promote domestic manufacturing and bulster this important sector of the economy. Mexico and Canada are also in Trump’s sights. He plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from these neighboring countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed concerns saying that Canada supplies vital materials like oil, steel, and lumber. He went on to claim that the U.S. Tariffs could disrupt this trade and raise costs for American industries. Both nations aim to avoid direct trade conflict while protecting their economies from potential damage. Trump’s tariffs serve multiple purposes. They are designed to pressure trade partners, reduce deficits, and address what he views as unfair practices. Tariffs also play a role in domestic revenue generation. They are a tax on imported goods, and higher tariffs mean more money for government programs. Economists warn of potential downsides, including higher consumer prices. Some argue that the inflationary effects could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts. Let's explore that further now. What does the data say concerning Tariffs? The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Compiled through surveys of supply chain executives, it tracks new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. As a barometer of economic activity, the PMI provides valuable insight into broader economic trends and business conditions. Since the second half of 2022, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing struggles in the manufacturing sector. Factors such as high interest rates, which increase borrowing costs for businesses, and weaker global demand have weighed heavily on production. Tariffs, while aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing, could potentially exacerbate these challenges by raising input costs, further pressuring profit margins. Critics argue that higher tariffs could contribute to inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates and support broader economic growth. A strong dollar has also added to manufacturers' woes, echoing the environment during Trump's 2017 inauguration. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, reducing competitiveness for domestic manufacturers. In 2017, the dollar weakened after initial strength leading into the Trump inaguration, providing a temporary boost to manufacturing by making exports more affordable and imports pricier. A similar trend today could aid the sector, but its timing and magnitude remain uncertain, leaving manufacturers navigating a complex and challenging economic environment. A strong dollar is closely tied to domestic interest rates, as higher rates make U.S. financial assets more attractive to global investors. With the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, or Fed Funds Rate, at elevated levels, there is a strong incentive for multinational corporations and foreign investors to acquire dollars to purchase U.S. Treasuries. These assets offer a combination of safety and competitive yields, drawing capital inflows that drive up demand for the dollar. For instance, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.295%, significantly higher than China’s 2-year yield of 1.26%. This wide yield differential makes U.S. Treasuries a far more appealing investment, strengthening the dollar in the process. The Fed’s success in controlling inflation has further bolstered the dollar's appeal. As inflation trends downward toward the 2% target, the relative stability of the U.S. economy enhances confidence in dollar-denominated assets. This dynamic creates a feedback loop: high interest rates attract foreign capital, which strengthens the dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper. While this helps curb inflation, it poses challenges for domestic manufacturing by eroding competitiveness. This delicate balance underscores the complexity of managing monetary policy while considering its ripple effects on trade and the broader economy. One bright spot for domestic manufacturing is that it appears to have hit rock bottom after years of sharp declines. Similar to the transportation sector, which shows signs of recovery as reflected in the recent ATA tonnage index, manufacturing seems to be stabilizing. The worst may be over, and the sector is finally showing signs of life. New orders for manufacturing have moved back into growth mode, offering hope for a sustained rebound. This shift signals that demand is returning, which could provide a foundation for manufacturers to rebuild and capitalize on future opportunities.
TVC:DXY
by ZenMode
Why You Should Consider Buying ARKK ETF: A Gateway to InnovationOverview of ARKK ARKK is the ticker symbol for the ARK Innovation ETF, managed by the investment firm ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood. The ETF is renowned for its focus on high-growth, innovative companies across various sectors such as technology, healthcare, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy. Key Features Focus on Disruptive Innovation: ARKK invests in companies at the forefront of transformative technologies, including: Genomic research and biotechnology. Robotics and automation. Artificial intelligence (AI). Blockchain technology. Electric vehicles (EVs). Active Management: Cathie Wood, the fund's visionary manager, is known for her bold and aggressive investment strategies, targeting high-risk, high-reward opportunities in emerging industries. Portfolio Composition: ARKK's holdings include trailblazing companies such asTesla, **Roku, Zoom Video Communications, CRISPR Therapeutics, and Block (formerly Square). The portfolio is actively managed and adjusted based on ARK Invest's extensive research. Risk-Reward Profile: As a high-risk ETF, ARKK is characterized by significant price volatility. It appeals to long-term investors willing to weather short-term fluctuations in pursuit of substantial growth potential. Performance: Boom in 2020: ARKK experienced remarkable growth during the pandemic, fueled by a surge in tech stocks. Challenges in 2022: The fund faced a steep decline due to corrections in the tech sector, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainties. Expense Ratio: ARKK has an annual management fee of approximately 0.75%, higher than the average for ETFs, reflecting its active management approach. Target Audience: ARKK is ideal for investors who believe in the long-term potential of disruptive innovation and are comfortable with short-term losses for the prospect of future gains. Risks to Consider Sensitivity to macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate hikes). Vulnerability to downturns in the technology sector. Heavy exposure to companies with low or negative earnings. Why Buy ARKK? Investing in ARKK provides exposure to groundbreaking technologies and industries poised for exponential growth. While it carries higher risks, it offers the potential for substantial long-term rewards. Whether you’re an experienced investor or a believer in the future of innovation, ARKK is a compelling addition to a forward-thinking portfolio.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by ForexCompany
First Week of 2025 - Shape Market Sentiment for the Rest of 2025The first week of trading is always significant, as many investors begin initiating and rebalancing their positions for the year. Last week, we discussed the bond markets, which may impact yields and influence the direction of interest rates and inflation. This could lead to increased volatility in the stock market, prompting investors to focus on gold. 1 Ounce Gold Futures Ticker: 1OZ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 per troy ounce = $0.25 Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MCG Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
iota long midterm"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Long
by Golden_candle
One set up, less chart time, more RRLet me take you down a rabbit whole and show you a strategy with a high win rate conviction. High risk to reward. Consistency and less chart time. Pros: high win rate, 2rr plus consistency, less chart time, systematic approach. Less entry's better reward. Cons: if you use funding accounts & they don't allow weekend, over night, or news trading this is not for you. Trades can be between 2 to 5 days if using higher time frames. Eg daily. This strategy is based on a set of checks on a check list that needs to be confirmed in order to take entry. Building confluence and a stronger trade set up. If caught on 4 hr or daily it allows a swing trade, with multiple scaling in trades with shorter duration on smaller time frames like 15 min and 1 hr. Let's break down the check list and show some break downs. The checklist 1. Is the higher time frames moving in the direct of your entry? First you analyze higher time frames. Determin if over all trend and market structure is bullish or bearish. We will be trading the Continiuation of structure. Eg if bullish we looking for buys. 2. Has there been a break of structure leaving an imbalance? We want to look for a break of structure to comfirm the bullish or bearish bias, leaving an imbalance (fvg). This gives us a retracement point to retest along with more confluence as the imbalance is likely to be filled. As part of this strat we will be using fib retracement tool with the settings 0.5 and 0.618 only. This is the golden zone our entry's will be based on the 0.618, or golden zone. Stoploss the base of fib, take profit the high of fib. Example one: bullish Weekly time frame showing higher highs and higher lows bullish market structure. Daily time frame showing a break of structure to the upside. Showing bullish continuation making a new high. Leaving a imbalance to fill. Seeing a retracement we take the low to the high. Giving us our trade set up. Trade complete minimum draw down, creating a new high. Now with the same bullish bias looking for buys. Let's take a look inside the trade on a smaller time frame and apply the same principles. 1 hr time frame Example Example 2 5 min time frame Example 2 bearish Weekly showing bearish market structure Daily created a break of structure to the down side, leaing an imbalance. 1 hr time frame Example 1 hr time frame Example 2 Combining multiple confluences like support and resistance levels, order blocks, pivotd and trend lines ect. It can provide a strong trade setup string. Each confluence acts as a confirmation of the others, increasing the likelihood of a successful trade. By stacking these confluences together, traders can build a comprehensive analysis and increase the effectiveness of their trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by samstoobad
GBPAUD, What will happen in near future ?Hello Traders, Hope you're doing Great. For upcoming weeks, we'll probably see a downward momentum in this pair. From the viewpoint of Technical, the price has broken its last HL in Daily time frame and changed the trend. from the viewpoint of Fundamental, both Currencies are vulnerable about Risk off sentiment; but GBP is more Vulnerable than AUD because of bad data that came from Britain recently. so with all of these reasons, Short Position is more reasonable and a downward momentum to the Demand zones is anticipated. And finally tell me what do you think ? UP or DOWN ? leave your comment below this post. If this post was helpful to you, please like it and share it with your friend. THANKS.
Short
by aminrzb
Waiting for entryLet's wait for an entry on this trade. Support levels and price target have been set by doing a top down analysis. The price target is the ATH trading price for USDCAD, with looming tariffs and Trumps America First Agenda I'm speculating we will see USDCAD trade at its ATH again within the next 4 years. Im looking for an entry into this trade after the Canadian election, I want to see price come back down to a support level and then once market sentiment wears off from the election we will be looking for a reversal pattern on the smaller time frames.
by pitachio7712
Is this really Trump's son's memecoin? I don't know!!I don't know the identity of this coin, but since Trump family meme coins are very popular, I have done this analysis. From a technical perspective, it can be said that the price is forming a wedge, and maybe even an Adam and Eve pattern. If my analysis is correct, we will see a 100% increase. Give me some energy !! ✨We spend hours finding potential opportunities and writing useful ideas, we would be happy if you support us. Best regards CobraVanguard.💚 _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ✅Thank you, and for more ideas, hit ❤️Like❤️ and 🌟Follow🌟! ⚠️Things can change... The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
MEXC:BARRONUSDTLong
by CobraVanguard
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