EURUSD: The Dollar Continues to Take OverHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.04700 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.04700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Beyond Technical Analysis
MSTR - Ponzi Loop Will Crash & BurnEvery now and then, I like to say that greed eats brains for breakfast. In the case of MSTR, though, it seems to have state approval to do so. How else could MSTR still be kicking?
There’s nothing to chart here. Nada. Zip. This is pure pump-and-dump economics born out of the "perfect storm" of circumstances.
Fast money? Sure, it's fast—but definitely not sustainable. It’s also a foolproof recipe for losing not just your shirt, but your pants and maybe even your dignity. Remember GME and all the other “get rich quick” lemming programs? Only a microscopic percentage actually "got rich," and an even tinier fraction stayed rich. Most of them? Just cautionary tales with a hefty dose of regret. Sorry, gamblers… err, "investors." §8-)
Instead of betting the farm on people like Michael Saylor, how about this revolutionary idea: use your own brain. Learn chart analysis, develop real skills, and slowly build up a nest egg that’ll still be around when you’re old and gray.
But hey, who am I to judge?
MSTR SHORT until 0.0001
META, MAJOR CORRECTION LIKELY SOON Hey guys I wanted to share what I’m seeing in meta on the 2 week. Meta is another one that’s had a very nice move for a while. I hope some of y’all did well on it. Meta is coming to the end of this phase and it’s due for a large correction very soon in my opinion.
We have strong bearish divergence between price action, strength, and volume combined. Also hitting a major trend line. It’s in the final stages of wave 5 now. The rsi is finally about ready to rollover as well. Over the coming weeks and months ahead we are looking at a potential 35% correction from here for Meta. Of course there will be some nice swing trading in the middle of all this which is what we do at THE TRADER EDGE. I still wanted to start sharing the bigger pic ideas with the public in hopes that I can truly add a little value to someone out there.
As traders we always trade the higher probabilities. Nothing is certain here with meta but the probabilities of at least a hard correction are very high.
Stay safe, stay focused, no emotions. God bless y’all 👊🏼
Visit us at :
thetraderedge.com
BTC/USD: Selling Opportunity EmergesBTC/USD: Selling Opportunity Emerges
A prime selling opportunity has arisen in the BTC/USD market. The recent breakdown of the rising wedge pattern has confirmed a bearish trend reversal.
Key Points:
- Rising wedge breakdown confirms bearish trend reversal
- Support levels breached, validating the downtrend
- Potential target at $95,000
- Selling opportunity emerges as price action aligns with bearish trend
Best wishes Tom 😎
Polkadot DOT’s $8.442 Standoff: Bounce or Breakdown?DOT is hovering around a key support zone, at $8.442.
1. A quick dip and bounce back from $8.442 might hint that the bulls aren’t ready to give up just yet (Dashed Green Projection).
2. If DOT confidently pushes through $9.659, the bulls might have a party, with the next pit stop likely around $11.009. A clean move here could set the stage for some exciting action to the upside (Solid Green Projection).
3. However, if the $8.442 level crumbles, things could get dicey fast. Bears might take over, dragging the price toward $7.000, a critical support level where DOT could try to catch its breath (Red Projection).
Right now, DOT is at a tipping point—will it rise to the occasion or falter? Keep your focus on $9.659 and $8.442; they’re calling the shots for what comes next.
Can ALGO Break Free? Bulls Eye $0.531, but First $0.453!
Algorand ALGO is tiptoeing around $0.4288, the mid of the range zone with slow and choppy price action.
1 A decisive break above $0.453 could give the bulls a reason to celebrate, clearing the path for a run toward the next resistance at $0.531. If momentum builds, we could see ALGO stretching its legs and aiming even higher (Green Projections).
2. On the flip side, if $0.398 fails to act as a safety net, things could get bearish short-term. Bears might take charge, dragging the price toward the next support at $0.32. That’s where traders may want to look for potential signs of life and opportunity to DCA (Red Projection).
To sum it up: $0.453 is the hurdle bulls need to clear for upside excitement, while $0.398 is the line in the sand for buyers. It’s ALGO’s time to decide—will it climb higher or hit the floor? Stay tuned!
GOLDEN INFORMATION / GOLD UPDATE / WEEKLY CLOSING / FED UPDATETRADINGVIEW: plan day 12/20/2024 (Friday)
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Thursday's US economic data revealed a decline in unemployment claims, while the final Q3 GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 3.1% year-over-year growth.
Despite these figures, market attention remains focused on projections for 2025. The Federal Reserve (Fed), led by Chair Jerome Powell, reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, though the decision was not unanimous, with Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of maintaining current rates.
Fed officials have also shifted focus to inflation, as reflected in the dot plot. Their projections indicate two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025 and another two in 2026.
⭐️Personal comments PIPS & PROFIT:
Strong Bearish Trend - Pressure on Market Maintains Around 2600
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2626 - $2628 SL $2633
TP1: $2620
TP2: $2610
TP3: $2600
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2576 - $2574 SL $2569
TP1: $2582
TP2: $2590
TP3: $2600
Let support Pips & Profit by LIKE AND COMMENT TRADINGVIEW. Thank you very much everyone 🌸🌸🌸
BREAKOUT RETESTINGScript: NSE:RAMCOSYS
Key highlights: 💡⚡
📈 Script is trading at near its BREAKOUT RETESTING level keep an eye on stock, we may see some good rally.
📈 One can go for Swing and long Trade.
⏱️ C.M.P 📑💰- 455
🟢 Target 🎯🏆 - 510- 660 + + +
SL CB 375
⚠️ Important: Always maintain your Risk & Reward Ratio.
✅Like and follow to never miss a new idea!✅
Disclaimer: I am not SEBI Registered Advisor. My posts are purely for educational purposes.
Eat🍜 Sleep😴 TradingView📈 Repeat 🔁
Happy learning with trading. Cheers!🥂
XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade Idea over the breakout of 2604.02 leXAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade idea over the breakout of 2604.02 level.
Gold fell on the recent 18 Dec 2024 FOMC, and on 19 Dec 2024 the unemployment data was strong for the US dollar, so now I am watching the buy-side trade idea over the breakout of the 2604.02 level with strong confirmations of price at this level.
The setup must meet the required momentum in the price. The sentiments also show the price will move as per the data revelled from various sites.
Setup;
Gold Buy at level: 2604.2-2605.2
Stop Loss: 2599.2 (50 pips) or the low of previous candle
Take Profit; 2623
*Note; If the valid breakout will be found then the setup also valid otherwised find more oppercunity.
WHAT NEXT FOR BITCOIN?Will December Be Good for Bitcoin? A Look at Past Trends
As December approaches, Bitcoin traders often wonder if this month will be positive for crypto or if it will end in losses. Let's look at how Bitcoin has performed each December for the past 10 years:
Bitcoin's December Trends (2013–2023)
2013: Started at ~$1,000 and ended at ~$750 (-25%). Early excitement faded due to profit-taking and worries about Mt. Gox.
2014: Started at ~$375 and ended at ~$320 (-15%). The Mt. Gox hack earlier in the year hurt confidence.
2015: Started at ~$360 and ended at ~$430 (+19%). Renewed optimism brought a small rally.
2016: Started at ~$740 and ended at ~$960 (+30%). This steady increase hinted at the big run in 2017.
2017: Started at ~$10,800 and ended at ~$14,000 (+30%). Bitcoin reached a peak mid-month but started a bear market by year-end.
2018: Started at ~$4,000 and ended at ~$3,800 (-5%). The market was down 80% from its peak.
2019: Started at ~$7,500 and ended at ~$7,200 (-4%). Modest losses as the market was stable.
2020: Started at ~$19,500 and ended at ~$29,000 (+48%). COVID-19 increased Bitcoin’s popularity, leading to big gains.
2021: Started at ~$57,000 and ended at ~$46,000 (-19%). Concerns about inflation led to a drop.
2022: Started at ~$17,000 and ended at ~$16,500 (-3%). The FTX collapse kept the market weak.
2023: Started at ~$40,000 and ended at ~$42,500 (+6%). A recovery year with modest gains.
What to Watch for in December 2024
1. Federal Reserve Policy: An expected rate cut on December 18 has supported market optimism. A change in this plan could affect prices.
2. Institutional Investment: Bitcoin ETFs have gained popularity, attracting over $100 billion in 2024.
3. Market Sentiment: With Bitcoin above $100,000, the target is now $125,000, but volatility is possible.
4. Political Factors: President-elect Trump’s pro-crypto stance, with promises of favorable policies, adds to the market’s positive outlook.
Looking to 2025
Bitcoin’s future looks promising with growing institutional and consumer interest, friendly regulations, and a supportive economic environment. While $108,000 is a milestone, many expect even higher prices as Bitcoin continues to evolve.
As 2024 ends, traders can expect more action. Stay ready, watch the market, and best of luck in the new year.
GBPAUD Bullish Trade Idea from 2.00381-2.0082GBPAUD Bullish Trade Idea
The price fell from the 2.02834 zone and hit back the 2.00381 zone, just respecting the recent support level.
Now the important question is: does the price just test back and wait for the confirmation candle over this zone to reach the next level?
In H4, the bear pressure will increase over time, and the volume increased with sentiments also showing that more volume on the buy side. and the major zone will be tested.
Key level: if the market breaks the support, then we must see at the 1.99567 zone, but on the other side, the Pound index is strong enough.
When the market breaks the 2.00820 level, put buy trade.
Buying zone: 2.00381 - 2.0082
Stop loss: 1.99778
Take Profit Level: 2.0158-2.02763
USD/CAD -Volume Spread AnalysisHere is a perfect example of Pushing Up through Supply.
As shown, when up-trending markets experience the phenomenon created by Market Makers in which supply us introduced to the market. (Notice the Pivot Highs at 1.41942 and 1.41968 which are 4 pips apart) These levels of supply are known by the market makers and are used to lock in bullish traders.
As the market moves against the locked in traders we notice Ultra High Volume (UHV) shows up. As we analyze the volume it suggests professional supply has entered the market and is confirmed by the following Wide Spread and Excessively UHV.
This confirms the intention of the professionals to lock in bullish traders and create an over head supply zone. The following price movement has UHV as well but less than the previous bar and it also closes bullish but inside the larger UHV bar. Peculiar for a market that is doomed to fall to the abyss don't you think? Looking back to the previous 40 price bars we notice price held support above the level of the previous pivot low at 1.40926.
The supply diminishes from this point as price creates a Lower High (LH) then a Higher Low (HL). We also notice the spread bodies of the bars leading to the pivot low at 1.41304 are smaller than any other downward push since the consolidation period on the 10th of December.
This implies supply has diminished until we come back in contact with the supply created by the Market Makers. The UHV suggests supply is present. However, the next bar shows demand is also present and supply has suddenly diminished at the resistance as well.
Prices then proceed to "Push up Through Supply" volume diminishes and prices rise through the supply which is termed and "ease of movement". This is an aggressive BUY SIGNAL which implies prices will not come back to retest the previous area of resistance turned support known as the backup to the edge of the creek.
You have to be aggressive at these moments because prices will not return to the retest the structure as the handling maneuver is completed a as it leaves the re-accumulation area.
RAILTEL: Building Strength at Demand ZoneRAILTEL (Railtel Corp of India Ltd.)
Key Levels:
Demand Zone: ₹348 - ₹357
First Target Zone: ₹452
Second Target Zone: ₹561
Stop Loss: Below ₹345 (demand zone failure)
Structure & Trend:
Stock has been in a corrective phase, respecting the demand zone multiple times.
A potential double bottom structure may be forming around ₹348-₹357.
Golden retracement of the last swing low offers a bounce opportunity.
Trade Plan:
Entry: Around ₹355 - ₹365 within the demand zone.
Targets:
First target: ₹452
Second target: ₹561
Stop Loss: ₹345 on a daily close basis.
Note: A breakdown below ₹345 could lead to further downside; monitor price action.
Ruh Roh, looks like SPY's in trouble..Hey guys,
Thought I would do a written post this time because there is a lot of information to share!
So, if you follow me, you know I am mostly about math, but I also like to include the chart, some technicals and some fundamentals. And I think at this point in time its very critical to consider all these factors when analyze the price action we see.
So SPY is selling. To be honest, I am not surprised of the selling, but I am surprised of the timing. I thought it would wait till January, just chopping around and topping before doing the whole waterfall thing. But it decided to jump on the opportunity with FOMC's news release. We will get into that in one second.
So with that catalyst, SPY began its decline, over 2% in one day, closing below a loss of 2% on the day. We then opened slightly gapped up but failed to start, where we continued to tank.
So what is going on?
Fundamentals
The market got what it wanted, a 25 basis point cut. However, the guidance offered by the feds was a bit more realistic and sobering. The guidance essentially indicated that rate cuts would not continue for long and they don't anticipate anymore than 2 rate cuts into next year, leading to a period of rate purgatory so to speak. This is generally not great because it destroys the premise of "easy money". Easy money is money that people can get due to low interest rates and a surplus of fund availability. However, with the lack of rate cuts, we will hover at a stable albeit elevated interest rate with no outlook of when rates will be lowered and when interest rates will be cheaper.
This is bad, because in order for people to feel wealthier, they need to feel like things are cheaper or that they have more money, which isn't a direct consequence of prolonged rate hiking. This means that people will be less inclined to invest into unnecessary things (stock market perhaps) and keep funds safe for whatever the future may hold.
The reason the feds can take this stance is because the labour market is rebounding. This means that people are generally gainfully employed and can withstand the rate hikes / rate stagnation.
Not necessarily detrimental for the market, but in general, higher unemployment is good for the big picture of markets because it means rates will need to be lower.
This leads to the next fundamental topic, Money!
2024 marked historic deficit highs for the US, with 1.8 trillion deficit in 2024. And if you watched my video about SPX and the money supply, having a US index valued well over all the monetary supply in circulation within the US, its not a normal or healthy or sustainable thing, especially when the US is already experiencing grave deficits.
PE ratios
I won't get into this too much, but take a look at some companies PE ratios in relation to their fundamentals, things were getting a little off kilter here...
Now for the Math
If you followed me through the last little crash SPY / SPX did in the end of July, you would have remembered this video:
In this video, I explain my own theory of "corrections". From my own research looking at DJI and SPX (since both have histories since the 1800s), one thing I have noted is there are generally 3 stages of correction, from a math perspective.
Stage 1: Cubic Correation
This is a shallow correction and involves a correction to the 'cubic' mean of a ticker or index. It generally results when the ticker, specifically spy, exceeds the cubic mean by up to 5%.
Currently, SPY's cubic mean is 557, with the actual range being 555 - 559. Remember, this moves with each passing day. That is just as of right now, today's close. In 20 days the range will be up to 563.
These corrections are shallow and usually involve about a 5% to 10% pullback. As of right now, the cubic mean is approximately 8% away from the recent highs.
Stage 2: Quartic Correction
If the market isn't satisfied with a cubic correction (for general interest, in July we simply did a cubic correction back to 510 and then resumed the uptrend), we will see next a quartic correction.
This is a reversion to the quartic mean, which generally is an addition 10 to 15% away.
In SPY's case currently, the quartic mean is 544, with a range of 542 - 546/
This is a deeper correction but not necessarily a bear market. Quartic corrections usually are the halmark of "flash crashes".
Stage 3: Quadratic Correction, AKA Bear Market Cycle
In 2022 we had a quadratic correction, that was a regression to the quadratic mean. If you have been around for a long time and followed me through 2022, you will remember I called a move to 350s. Most thought I was nuts, but it was because SPY had already fallen through the cubic mean and that signaled that it was intent on following through to a quartic and possibly quadratic. It was confirmed relatively quickly in 2022, at least for me, that it was looking for a quadratic correction (i.e. bear market cycle) as it quickly fell through both cubic and quartic means.
Currently, SPY's quadratic mean is 475, with a range of 472 to 477.
Quadratic corrections take, on average, 6 months to a year, which is the normal bear market cycle.
Only once have I observed a fall below the quadratic range and that was in 2008 (obviously I wasn't trading at this time, but when I was testing these theories this was the only year where the market didn't get stopped by the bottom of the quadratic range, every other bear market/correction got halted at the bottom of the quadratic range or at the quadratic mean itself).
So what does this mean for you the trader?
It means relax. We haven't even seen a cubic correction as of yet. For SPY to assert a bear market cycle thesis, we will need to see SPY shoot through the cubic mean.
However, obviously vigilance needs to be maintained. This isn't the time to mindlessly buy dips until we see it finding support on one of the critical means.
Will it correct to the means? Yes, mostly likely we will see at minimum, a cubic correction. The reason I think this is just the fundamentals currently support it.
Will we go lower than the cubic mean?
Hard to say. No one can be sure, obviously. The economic situation isn't super precarious, so I am skeptical of seeing an overly profound dip or the commencement of a bear market, but I will be diligently watching where support is found.
How do we know if it doesn't want to correct to one of the means?
This is a good question! Most pullbacks involve at least a correction to one of the means, but there have been times where it bypassed, only to circle back in about a 6-month period.
We will only be sure that SPY does not intend to mean revert if we break a new high from the current high (aka a new ATH) prior to correcting to the mean.
I know this doesn't seem super helpful, but its the only way that is a telltale sign that it doesn't intend on correcting. However, many of these cases where it went back to make a new high, it ended up crashing to the cubic and quartic mean some 1 to 2 months later :-/.
So where should we be looking to buy?
If you want to buy as a swing trade, I would wait to see if this is going to find support at one of the means.
If I wanted to buy as an investor with the long term vision in sight, then you can buy anywhere really. Stocks will only ever permanently go up and bear market cycles and mean corrections are just fleeting passings that are quickly absorbed into obscurity. I bet many of you forgot that we crashed in July ;).
Will it happen quicky?
The average Cubic correction takes about 1 week. In July I think it lasted about 2 weeks because those relentless dip buyers.
Hard to say but the historic average is 1 week.
How do we know if it will go lower?
In July, SPY went 1 point lower than the cubic mean and it was enough to make me, erroneously of course, call the end is nye. I was wrong obviously, because SPY quickly recovered. So I would say, hitting the general cubic range, even if it is below by 1 or 2 points, if it recovers there, that would be a good sign for a continuation up.
Summary
So kudos to you if you read this long!
Moral of this story is we should see a correction, likely greater than 5%, to the cubic mean. Remember the cubic mean is constantly increasing with each passing day, so we will need to be mindful of where it is and when contact is made.
For convenience, I will update with that information as we either completely reverse away from it or approach it.
Don't get too bearish, Cubic corrections are not usually a very bearish thing. Instead, they serve the purpose of providing buying opportunities for late entrants.
The economic situation of the US is right now uncertain until Trump takes presidency. Not sure of his economic plans, but in general he has stimulated economic growth. This would of course be good for markets.
Hopefully you found this informative. There were other things I wanted to discuss but I think this is enough for now.
Leave your questions below and safe trades everyone!
PRQ Opens Wings and Lays REACT Egg for 2025COINBASE:PRQUSDC has been middling at best through out the year, but has seen steady growth which has recently picked up at a noticeable pace. Here we can see the Bird Opening Wings chart pattern which indicates some near term gains and potential positive growth into 2025.
The Parsiq team is in the process of transitioning to their new platform called Reactive Network (token: REACT).
From their accouncement:
Thank You
for Being Part of PARSIQ’s Journey! Over the years, PARSIQ has provided Web3 developers with user-friendly development tools. As the Web3 ecosystem evolves, so does our mission, and we’ve channeled our efforts into creating something powerful: Reactive Network
Reactive Network is at the forefront of blockchain evolution, offering a fully EVM-compatible execution layer that empowers developers to build the next wave of decentralized applications. Unlike traditional smart contracts, Reactive Smart Contracts leverage Inversion-of-Control to autonomously react to on-chain events, driving seamless interactions across multiple blockchains without user intervention.
We understand the importance of a fair and transparent token migration process. Therefore, we are pleased to confirm that the swap from PRQ to REACT will be on a 1:1 token basis. There will be no lockups for existing PRQ holders, — just a straightforward transition, fair for holders and the community.
parsiq.net
reactive.network
We are not seeing the new token on DEXes yet, and PRQ is still trading at the moment, but could stop trading soon (timeline still unknown) as the project swaps out existing tokens for REACT!
It will be exciting to see how the new Reactive Network continues to grow next year.
Remember Habibi, the desert tests your will, not your strength.
USDCHF: The Dollar Continues to dominateHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDCHF for a buying opportunity around 0.89400 zone, USDCHF is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.89400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
NVDA Analysis in Three Trading Strategies1. GEX Analysis for Options Trading
Gamma Levels and Key Insights:
* Support Levels:
* $130: Major put support, showing strong downside protection.
* $128: Next support level (3rd Put Wall).
* Resistance Levels:
* $134: HVL (High Volatility Level) and pivotal gamma level for upside moves.
* $136: Highest NET GEX, indicating a strong resistance zone.
* $137–$140: Major call wall resistance.
* IV and Sentiment:
* IVR: 38.9, suggesting moderate implied volatility.
* Calls %: Moderate at 37.3%, indicating mixed sentiment.
Options Strategy:
* Bullish:
* Buy calls above $134 with a target at $136 and $137.
* Use $132 as a stop-loss.
* Bearish:
* Buy puts below $130 with a target of $128 and $126.
* Use $132 as a stop-loss.
2. 1-Hour Chart for Swing/Day Trading
Key Observations:
* Trend: Downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, confirming bearish sentiment.
* Support and Resistance:
* Support at $130, aligned with gamma levels.
* Resistance at $134.
* Indicators:
* EMA (9/21): Bearish alignment with price below both EMAs.
* MACD: Bearish crossover, confirming downside momentum.
Swing/Day Trading Setup:
* Bullish:
* Entry: Above $134 with volume.
* Target: $136 and $137.
* Stop-loss: Below $133.
* Bearish:
* Entry: Below $130.
* Target: $128 and $126.
* Stop-loss: Above $132.
3. 2-Minute Chart for Scalping
Key Observations:
* Trend: Strong intraday selling pressure with no significant recovery.
* Scalping Levels:
* Resistance: $131.20.
* Support: $130.00.
* Volume:
* Selling pressure increased during the latter half of the session.
* Indicators:
* EMA (9/21): Dynamic resistance, confirming bearish structure.
* MACD: Bearish divergence with no signs of reversal.
Scalping Strategy:
* Bullish:
* Entry: Break above $131.20.
* Target: $132.00.
* Stop-loss: Below $131.00.
* Bearish:
* Entry: Break below $130.00.
* Target: $129.00.
* Stop-loss: Above $130.20.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before trading.