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#DXY 4HDXY (4H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is forming a falling wedge pattern, which is generally considered a bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum, and a potential upward move could follow if the price breaks above the wedge resistance. Forecast: A buy opportunity may arise if the price confirms a breakout from the falling wedge pattern, signaling increased bullish pressure. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a confirmed breakout above the wedge resistance. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed below the recent swing low to manage risk. - Take Profit: Target key resistance levels based on previous price action. Market Sentiment: The falling wedge suggests potential bullish momentum. A confirmed breakout with strong price action can provide better validation for the buy setup.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by PIPSFIGHTER
Declining Brent and the New Energy ParadigmBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst Yesterday, marked by uncertainty and transformation in the energy sector, Brent crude oil for April delivery closed the London futures market session down 0.67% at $72.53 a barrel. This drop, which translated into a fall of 0.49 dollars with respect to the last trading on the Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) - where the price had reached 73.02 dollars - reflects the volatility that currently characterizes the energy markets. Brent, considered the European oil benchmark, is experiencing fluctuations that respond both to geopolitical factors and to the strategic decisions of the major oil companies. In this context, there were important news on the international scene: the President of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Ukrainian President, Volodymir Zelenski, plan to sign this Friday an agreement in which Ukraine will share its natural resources. According to sources, this pact aims to bring about a “secure peace” in the country, which could redefine the flow of energy supplies and, in turn, impact the stability of crude oil prices. On the other hand, the reorientation of BP's corporate strategy adds another layer of complexity to the scenario. The British oil company announced that it will reduce its investments in renewable energies, figures that reached 5 billion dollars a year (approximately 4.75 billion euros), to focus on increasing crude oil and gas production. This strategic shift is part of the search for higher operating profits, in a context in which the energy transition has generated debates on the short and medium-term profitability of sustainable investments versus the traditional hydrocarbon business. BP's decision could be interpreted as a sign that, despite growing pressures to adopt cleaner energy sources, some market players are choosing to consolidate and leverage their operations in the fossil fuel sector. The strategy of cutting investments in renewables in favor of oil and gas production not only seeks to improve profit margins, but also to take advantage of the current situation of moderate market prices, despite the fluctuations evident in futures. The combination of these factors-the imminent signing of the Trump-Zelenski deal and BP's reorientation-suggests that the oil market is at an inflection point. On the one hand, the Ukraine deal could have implications for supply and, potentially, natural resource geopolitics, while on the other, BP's strategy could incentivize other companies to rethink their investments in the context of an accelerated energy transition. Technical analysis If we look at the chart it is possible to see that on February 3rd, 11th and 20th we have witnessed three resistances in oil's attempts to move up and recover price positions. The bearish slide initiated on the 20th has been prolonged until Monday, yesterday being a sideways day, the Asian session and today's European opening seems to have kept the price unchanged. Looking at the crosses of averages we have a bearish cross of averages started last Friday that has been widening its space. The RSI has marked a recovery from the excessive oversold 20% of the afternoon session and currently marks a recovery zone at 45.81%. It appears that the Christmas supports at $71.61 are holding for the time being after yesterday's small bounce. It is very likely that Trump's move will continue to pressure through tariff releases a bearish oil value to directly penalize the BRICs group countries very dependent on this particular asset. While the 0.67% decline in Brent may appear moderate, taken together with these developments, it reflects a juncture in which political uncertainty and strategic restructuring are combining to influence prices. The evolution of these factors will be decisive in determining the direction of the market in the coming weeks, both in terms of supply and demand. All in all, today's trading day evidences a changing energy landscape, with political and corporate players reconfiguring their strategies in the face of an increasingly dynamic and complex global environment. With the natural resources agreement on the horizon and BP's renewed commitment to hydrocarbons, the oil sector is preparing to face new challenges and opportunities in an era of change. Tomorrow's trading day will be relevant to see the U.S. oil inventories that can move the energy market. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:BRENTShort
by ActivTrades
Gold Technical Breakdown: Sell Strategy Below 2,888.13 Hi Traders, This gold trading idea is based on technical analysis. As you can see, the price has broken below the critical support level of 2,888.133, indicating increased sell pressure. A significant long squeeze is likely underway, with potential downward targets at 2,846.20, 2,824.881, and 2,804.207. Entry Zone: Any price between 2,909.013–2,888.133 presents an optimal range for placing sell orders. Stop Loss: Set at 2,930.18 to manage risk effectively.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChessCrypto
2
What Would Happen to Bitcoin if Stocks Crash?I have read different speculations on what might happen to the price of Bitcoin if the stock market were to crash. I am going to answer this using statistics, correlations, and examples of events from market history. This post will not speculate on the current nor future price movements of Bitcoin and Stocks; only their connection. I will be using the Tradingview Bitcoin Index INDEX:BTCUSD and the S&P500 Index ETF AMEX:SPY What is a "Crash?" I use a common definition of a stock market "crash" as a short or long duration decline of -30% or more. I distinguish this from "correction" which I define as a -5% to -10% movement. I'll look at the true crashes but also include significant corrections for comparison. Time Range I chose the time range from 2014 to present for this study. Bitcoin did not reach a comparable level of maturity nor public awareness until after the 2013 bull cycle. Also the 2013 Stock Market was ridiculously bullish. How Often Do Bad Weeks Line Up? I took particularly down weeks for Stocks, -2.5% or more, and compared them to the same week for Bitcoin. 2 out of 3 Weeks where the stock market was down big... Bitcoin was down big. Furthermore, the average magnitude of Bitcoin's down move was more than twice that of Stocks. How Correlated is Bitcoin to Stocks? The Correlation Coefficient measure the way in which two instruments move together. A value 1.0 means that they move identically up and down while a value of -1.0 means they move exactly opposite. The correlation of Bitcoin to Stocks varies from week to week. However, Bitcoin is far more often and to a greater degree positively correlated to Stocks. At the extreme Bitcoin is more highly correlated to Stocks than it is ever negatively correlated (0.93 versus -0.76) Bitcoin is move often positively correlated to stocks. 75% of weeks Bitcoin and Stocks are positively correlated 0.70 is considered "high correlation" and 33% of weeks exhibit high correlation On the contrary, less than 2% of weeks are ever highly negatively correlated Historical Crashes Now we will go into some narratives around historic events surrounding large down moves in Stocks and how Bitcoin reacted. 2021 2021 was a bad year for both Stocks and Bitcoin. The decline of Bitcoin began prior to the then All Time High of Stocks but both decidedly went through a bear market together. Of note; while Stocks declined -27.47% from the high to low over that same period Bitcoin declined -61.83%. COVID COVID was a major but short "risk-off" event in both markets. Stocks declined -35.45% from prior high to subsequent low and Bitcoin declined -63.09% from its respective high and low. 2018 Going back further in time we can look a less severe Stocks declines in 2018. The 2018 market narrative was dominated by rate decisions with the Fed raising rates 4 times that year. The initial correction at the beginning of the year happened within Bitcoin's decline from its 2017 All Time High. Within this context while Stocks gave up -11.76% Bitcoin fell by more than half. Later in the year as Bitcoin began to trade in a very tight range Stocks had a -20.47% decline. While the two did not coincide in their start times it is within the context of the longer Stocks crash that Bitcoin broke lower for another -53.62% Conclusion and Analysis I want to note here that Bitcoin was created AFTER "the big one" of 2008. There has never in Bitcoin's history been a true multi-year bear market for Stocks to compare. However, we have ample evidence to suggest that given a crash in Stocks it is a near certainty that Bitcoin will decline as well to a magnitude of double or more. This happens because the market as a whole views Bitcoin as a risk asset with much higher volatility than Stocks as a whole. When there is ample liquidity and positive sentiment they both perform well. When liquidity is constrained and there is negative sentiment they both perform poorly. Liquidity and speculation are what drive them both. This connection has not changed in recent times and has likely increased due to the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF and publicly traded companies exposing their share prices to the volatility of Bitcoin. Trade wisely.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by norok
1
DOGE Bullish Potential Amid Market UncertaintyDOGE Bullish Potential Amid Market Uncertainty DOGE has completed a bullish harmonic pattern, increasing the potential for a price rise. However, the risk lies in the overall bearish trend of BTC and the broader cryptocurrency market, which adds a layer of unpredictability. If DOGE does not establish a new lower low, the likelihood of an upward movement increases. Therefore, closely monitor this zone. Key Resistance Areas: 0.2330 0.2550 0.2800 You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
8
EURUSD Trend in European and US SessionsEUR/USD news: 🔆Weakening U.S. economic data weighed on the U.S. dollar, as the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped by 7 points in February to 98.3, marking its third consecutive decline, according to Tuesday’s data release. 🔆Meanwhile, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin projected another decrease in Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation later this week, acknowledging the Fed’s progress in curbing inflation. Despite his positive outlook, Barkin stressed the importance of a cautious "wait and see" approach due to ongoing policy uncertainties. 🔆The EUR/USD pair strengthened as the Euro found support from rising optimism over potential fiscal expansion in Germany. Reports suggest that the country is considering a €200 billion emergency defense fund, fueling investor confidence. 🔆Additionally, Frederich Merz, leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Germany’s incoming chancellor, has not dismissed the possibility of modifying the debt brake to finance crucial initiatives such as tax cuts, reduced energy costs, and increased military spending, further boosting sentiment around the Euro. Personal opinion: 🔆EUR/USD is still maintaining its upward momentum based on good news from Europe. There will be a slight pullback due to the increase in the US 10-year bond yield but this is an opportunity to buy at a cheaper price than the market Analysis: Based on important resistance - support zones and Fibonacci levels combined with SMA50 to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy EURUSD 1.0470 – 1.0450 ❌SL: 1.0420 | ✅TP: 1.0520 – 1.0560 – 1.0600 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
3
Become a Semi-God in Crypto & knows Market Maker StrategiesHello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts,✌ Spend 2 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. The main points are summarized in 4 clear lines at the end 📋 This will help you level up your understanding of the market 📊 and Bitcoin💰. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Bitcoin: At the current price level, as the market approaches the resistance zone I’ve marked on the chart 📉, I observe that the price action is likely designed to trigger stop-losses and force out sellers 🚫. After this shakeout, I expect the downtrend to resume, with my target set at 78,000. How to View the Cryptocurrency Market Like an Expert or Market Maker: The first step is to create a sense of excitement in the market by driving the price upward 📈, fostering the illusion that retail investors will see their investments grow exponentially 💰. This generates a strong influx of capital from inexperienced traders. Continue this upward movement, allowing the market to attract a larger number of participants 👥, further pushing the price higher. Once the market has drawn in sufficient participants, induce small pullbacks 🔄 to force weaker hands out of their positions. During this phase, you gradually exit your own positions, ensuring that you don’t get caught in the pullback ⚠️. Simultaneously, utilize the influence of the media 📰 to reassure the public, reinforcing the idea that price fluctuations are natural in all financial markets, and these corrections are essential for fueling future growth. After all, a consistent, straight-line upward trend would be more concerning ❗. Following this minor correction, slightly raise the price again ⬆️, just enough to convince investors that the uptrend is resuming. This will act as confirmation for the public and encourage further capital inflow 💸, amplifying the bullish sentiment. At this point, orchestrate a more significant market decline 📉, but continue to keep hope alive among the masses 🌟. Stand on the sidelines and watch as panic spreads throughout the market 😱. As fear sets in, many investors will sell their positions at a loss, overwhelmed by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) 😔. This provides a perfect opportunity for you to buy back those assets at a lower price 💡. After accumulating positions at a discounted price 🛒, once again push the market upward with renewed strength 💪. This cycle can be repeated multiple times 🔄, extracting value from unsuspecting retail traders and driving the price higher each time. By repeating this process, you establish yourself as a dominant force in the market 🔥—an expert operator who understands the psychology of traders and how to leverage human emotions for profit 🧠. This approach is not unique to the cryptocurrency market; it is a pattern observed across various financial markets 🌍. Each phase of this cycle is intricately tied to human psychology, particularly the emotions of greed 💵, fear 😨, and the irrational behaviors they trigger. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅. 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 Push prices up to create excitement 📈, attracting retail investors 💰. Shake out weak hands with small pullbacks 🔄, then use media 📰 to keep them calm. Let the market crash, then buy at a lower price 💡 before repeating the cycle 🔄. Mastering market psychology 🧠 is the key to dominating crypto and beyond 🌍. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
16
Price Reactions to Drawn ZonesAs observed in the image, a zone labeled SVA_doji has been drawn. My analysis suggests that the price is likely to decline within this zone. Therefore, in line with capital management principles, we can execute the trade in two stages: taking short positions in two steps and exiting the trade with profits in one step. Additionally, a stop-loss level for the entire trade has been proposed at the specified point. Entry into the trade can be confirmed using appropriate tools and confirmations. Please note that this is solely an analysis and not a financial or trading recommendation. The responsibility for any risks taken lies with the readers. Wishing you success.
Short
by Ebi1974
Are we building a possible Super-Cycle & leave the 4-year cycleChart shows comparison to the last two cycles which have been scaled to match this cycle. With all the differences this cycle has offered, the early run before the halving, the long drawn out mini bear market retracements, but yet all the bullish news for Bitcoin and Crypto from here on out in the U.S.A, might we not experience a traditional bear market and instead play out a Super Cycle instead? It seems to me like this is, or could be playing out like the beginning of a Super Cycle. A move that takes Bitcoin into the millions. Just the same large parabolic run, similar when you zoom out and view the traditional Dow/S&P Stock Market as a whole since the 1980s. I suppose the absence of a deep and long bear market could be another clue that indicates this theory, until then it's just a theory and time will tell all....
by SammyCasket
QQQ at a Key Support! Will Tech Bulls Step In or More Downside? Technical Analysis for February 27, 2025: 1. Current Price Action: * QQQ has pulled back and is trading near $513, attempting to stabilize around POC (Point of Control) at $514.49. * The downtrend remains intact, but there are early signs of a possible base forming near $509-$510. * A break above $520-$522.50 would shift momentum to the bulls. 2. Key Levels to Watch: * Support: $509.44 (Current support), $500 (Major downside risk). * Resistance: $520 (Breakout level), $527.50 (Critical resistance). * Upside Targets: $530, $540, $550. 3. Indicators Analysis: * MACD: Bearish, but momentum is slowing down. * Stoch RSI: Moving higher, signaling a potential short-term bounce. * Volume Profile: High liquidity near $514-$520, suggesting a battle zone between bulls and bears. GEX & Option Strategy for Tomorrow and the Week: 1. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights: * Call Walls: $530, $540 → Major resistance. * Put Walls: $510, $500 → Key downside support. 2. IV & Sentiment: * IVR: 31.3 (Low) * IVx Avg: 30.2 (Stable) * Put Positioning: 63.8% bearish sentiment. * GEX Sentiment: Heavily bearish, but a reclaim of $520 could trigger a shift. 3. Trading Suggestions: * Bullish Setup: If QQQ reclaims $520, consider long positions targeting $527-$540, with a stop at $515. * Bearish Setup: If QQQ fails to hold $510, short setups targeting $500, stop at $515. * Options Play: Selling put spreads at $500 or call spreads near $540 resistance. 📌 My Thoughts & Suggestion: * QQQ is sitting at key support ($509-$510)—holding here could lead to a bounce toward $520+. * If QQQ breaks below $509, expect more downside toward $500. * Volatility remains low, making directional long options attractive. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚀
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights