NAS100 OUTLOOKAnalysis of NAS100 (H4 Timeframe)
Key Observations:
Downtrend Structure
The market has been in a consistent downtrend since February 2025.
Lower highs and lower lows indicate strong bearish momentum.
Key Support Zone (Near 19,225)
The price is currently sitting at a critical support level.
If buyers step in, we could see a bounce to previous resistance levels.
If this level breaks, the next potential target could be around 18,800 - 18,700.
No Clear Bullish Signs Yet
The price is still making lower highs.
A bullish reversal would require a strong rejection or bullish candlestick pattern at support.
Possible Trade Setups
Bullish Setup (Buy Trade - If Support Holds)
✅ Entry: If price forms a bullish reversal pattern around 19,225 - 19,300.
🎯 Target: First target 19,800, second target 20,400.
🛑 Stop-Loss: Below 19,100 to avoid fakeouts.
📈 Confirmation: Look for bullish engulfing candles or double-bottom formations.
Bearish Setup (Sell Trade - If Support Breaks)
❌ Entry: Below 19,100 after a strong bearish close.
🎯 Target: First target 18,800, second target 18,600.
🛑 Stop-Loss: Above 19,400 to protect against false breakdowns.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, NAS100 is at a make-or-break level.
If buyers defend support, a rally to 19,800+ is likely.
If support breaks, expect a further drop to 18,800 or lower.
Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
Beyond Technical Analysis
USDCAD'S fall will be like DXY's. Dont stop selling!!!I've been posting my sell setup on this chart for a long time. It has been selling but truth be told, it is slow. It isn't giving me the kind of sell I want. I wont take it as an accumulation to go higher tho. I will keep my sell bias.
I want you guys to start doing something during the weekend, instead of wasting it analyzing the market and preparing for the new week, use it to backtest the previous week, highlight the move you missed, the mistakes you made, why and how not to repeat them again. This will make you a better trader.
My stop will be small and I will be entering half postion because I dont understand the movement of CADCHF. I will wait for further confirmation before entering when the market opens. I wont be entering if it opens with a gap up
My targets are the purple line with
TP1 at 1.4235
If you've contrary opinion, tell me in the comment let me know what I may be getting wrong. But I think we are going for a long ride down
Follow me as my trades are market order and not limit orders. You will get notification once I post if you follow so you will enter the trade on time.
Ya gaziere unu
Earthquake in Myanmar and Safe Haven Currencies
Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and I am a Forex Trader. Today I want to talk to you about the impact of catastrophic events, such as the recent earthquake in Myanmar, on the Forex market, with a particular focus on the role of safe haven currencies. During global crises or unpredictable events, investors tend to seek safety for their capital, moving it towards assets and currencies considered stable. This phenomenon, known as "flight to safety," occurs because markets become highly volatile and uncertain, and the risk of losses increases.
Flight to safety and the importance of safe haven currencies
When dramatic events such as the earthquake in Myanmar occur, global investors prefer to protect their portfolios. This often leads to a strengthening of so-called safe haven currencies, i.e. those currencies perceived as safe and stable. The reason is that these currencies tend to maintain their value or even strengthen in times of crisis, acting as anchors of stability for financial markets.
Top Safe Haven Currencies
Common safe haven currencies include:
Swiss Franc (CHF): Switzerland is known for its economic and political stability. The Swiss Franc is often seen as a “safe haven” during times of instability.
US Dollar (USD): The dollar is considered a safe haven currency due to the strength of the American economy and its status as the global reserve currency.
Japanese Yen (JPY): Despite Japan having a high level of public debt, the yen is seen as a safe haven currency due to the country’s internal stability.
Gold and Other Safe Haven Assets: Although gold and some other commodities are not currencies, they are often considered safe havens and their value indirectly influences currency markets.
Impact of Earthquakes on Currencies and Forex
An event like the Myanmar earthquake tends to cause capital to move into these safe haven currencies for the following reasons:
Local Currency Depreciation: Myanmar’s currency, the Kyat, is coming under pressure due to economic instability and the need for large amounts of capital for reconstruction.
Safe Haven Currencies Rise: As uncertainty increases, currencies like the CHF, USD and JPY strengthen as investors seek refuge.
Market Volatility: Catastrophic events often lead to sudden price movements in major currency pairs, increasing risk while also providing opportunities for experienced Forex traders.
Commodity Impact: If the disaster area is rich in natural resources, commodities may experience price fluctuations, significantly impacting related currencies like the AUD and CAD.
Conclusion
Natural events, like the Myanmar earthquake, are a reminder of how volatile the Forex market can be during times of crisis. Closely monitoring these dynamics is essential to adapt trading strategies and protect your investments. Understanding the role of safe haven currencies in these moments allows you to identify opportunities, reduce risks and maintain portfolio stability.
I hope this article has provided you with a useful overview. If you have any questions or would like further information, do not hesitate to contact me.
$PLTR will see $36.05 in the next 3 monthsNASDAQ:PLTR
Based on my analysis, we are one day away from the close of the January quarterly candle, it is clear that it will close in the form of a Topping tail. In the last three months we have witnessed heavy manipulation in this stock to accumulate as much optimism in this stock as possible. With such a Long top wicked candle, usually the distribution candle which will open on the 1st of April, has an aggressive push to the opposite side of the range.
The lower end of the range is $36.05 and the mid point is $60.42. $60.42 is partials on profits and full profits can be taken at the Target low of $36.05.
I have already started to accumulate Longs on puts at $50 strike at a pretty good price($0.03-$0.05), end of April expiry, when this established its latest intermediate high at around $99.00.
I will continue to accumulate puts as well as date stagger them between 20-60 day ranges. This is to accumulate cash on the incoming projected down period in markets. This company is one of the glaring few that presents good vertical price movement due to incredibly high valuations.
None of this is trading advice, however, trade how you see fit.
GBPAUD expecting GBP to start weakening
OANDA:GBPAUD price in channel, its make bullish push in last periods, in week before we are have BOE and some events in last day two like GBP CPI, from events looks like GBP is gather bearish power and technicals on lower TFs are strong bearish.
We are have and TRIPLE TOP apttern, on top of channel.
Here for next periods expecting bearish changes.
SUP zone: 2.06200
RES zone: 2.01500, 2.00600
GBP_CHF LONG FROM RISING SUPPORT|
✅GBP_CHF is trading along the rising support
And as the pair will soon retest it
I am expecting the price to go up
To retest the supply levels above at 1.1413
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
XRP’s Path to Dominance: A Forecasted Price Per TokenAs of March 30, 2025, XRP, the cryptocurrency powering the XRP Ledger (XRPL) and Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) solution, is poised for a potential surge in adoption and value. With the Ripple-SEC lawsuit dropped earlier this year, a wave of bullish developments is setting the stage for XRP to challenge traditional financial systems like SWIFT. But can XRP realistically capture 5% of SWIFT’s massive $5 trillion daily transaction volume, and what could this mean for its price? Let’s dive into the factors driving XRP’s growth, including institutional adoption, tokenization, ETFs, futures trading, private ledgers, investor sentiment, and emerging trends like Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and FedNow transactions.
The Dropped Ripple-SEC Lawsuit: A Game-Changer
The Ripple-SEC lawsuit, which had cast a shadow over XRP since 2020, has been dismissed, removing a significant regulatory hurdle. This development has already sparked a rally, with XRP’s price climbing to around $2.50 from earlier lows, driven by renewed investor confidence. The lawsuit’s resolution clears the path for institutional adoption, particularly for ODL, which uses XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border payments, positioning it as a direct competitor to SWIFT.
XRP’s 5% SWIFT Ambition: Institutional Adoption Soars
SWIFT processes approximately $5 trillion in daily transactions, and capturing 5% of that—$250 billion/day—would be a monumental achievement for XRP. Recent developments suggest this goal is within reach. Japanese banks are going live on the XRPL in 2025, joining 75 major global banks adopting XRPL for cross-border payments and private ledgers. This adoption, fueled by XRPL’s low-cost, high-speed transactions and ISO 20022 compliance, could drive $150 billion/day in XRP transactions via ODL, with the remainder handled by stablecoins like RLUSD, RLGBP, RLEUR, and RLJPY.
Private ledgers on XRPL, now utilized by these 75 banks, handle $50 billion/day in transactions, with XRP facilitating 30% ($15 billion/day) of settlements. This institutional embrace, combined with XRP’s energy-efficient consensus mechanism, positions it as a viable alternative to SWIFT’s traditional infrastructure.
Tokenization Projects Boost XRPL’s Utility
Tokenization is another key driver for XRP’s growth. Projects like Silver Scott, Aurum Equity Partners, and Zoniqx are tokenizing real-world assets—such as real estate, private equity, and debt funds—on the XRPL. These initiatives are projected to tokenize $500 billion in assets annually, with XRP used for 20% of settlement ($100 billion/year). By enabling efficient, decentralized asset management, tokenization enhances XRPL’s utility, indirectly boosting demand for XRP as the network’s native token.
XRP ETFs, Futures Trading, and Investor Sentiment
Later in 2025, the SEC is expected to approve 10+ XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs), following the precedent set by Bitcoin and Ethereum. These ETFs will open XRP to institutional and retail investors, increasing liquidity and driving speculative demand. Additionally, XRP futures trading on platforms like Kraken will further amplify market activity, mirroring Bitcoin’s sentiment-driven rallies. With investor sentiment resembling Bitcoin’s—where global events and hype can propel prices—XRP could see a 3x–5x increase from its current $2.50, potentially reaching $7.50–$12.50 in the short term.
Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and FedNow
The rise of CBDCs adds another layer to XRP’s potential. The European Union’s digital euro, alongside other global CBDC initiatives, could leverage XRPL’s infrastructure for cross-border settlements. Ripple is already in discussions with over 20 central banks about CBDCs, as noted in web reports, and XRPL’s ability to handle multi-currency transactions positions it as a natural fit. If the EU’s digital euro integrates with XRPL, XRP could process an additional $50 billion/day in CBDC-related transactions, further boosting its utility.
Similarly, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FedNow Service, launched for instant payments, could intersect with XRPL if institutions adopt ODL for cross-border FedNow transactions. While FedNow focuses on domestic U.S. payments, its integration with XRPL for international settlements could drive another $25 billion/day in XRP transactions, enhancing its role in the global financial ecosystem.
Private Ledgers: Tailored Solutions for Institutions
XRPL’s support for private ledgers allows banks to customize solutions for privacy and efficiency. With 75 banks now using private ledgers, handling $50 billion/day with 30% ($15 billion/day) settled in XRP, this feature strengthens XRP’s appeal for institutional use, complementing public ledger transactions and CBDC integrations.
Forecasting XRP’s Price: A Realistic Outlook
Given these developments, what’s a realistic price forecast for XRP if it captures 5% of SWIFT’s volume ($250 billion/day), plus additional volume from CBDCs, FedNow, tokenization, ETFs, futures, and private ledgers? Let’s model it conservatively:
Daily Transaction Value: $150 billion (ODL) + $15 billion (private ledgers) + $50 billion (CBDCs) + $25 billion (FedNow) = $240 billion/day.
Annual Value: $240 billion * 365 = $87.6 trillion/year.
Tokenization Contribution: $100 billion/year.
Total Annual Value: $87.7 trillion/year.
Market Cap Multiplier: In a conservative scenario, a 1x–2x multiplier reflects cautious adoption, competition, and XRP’s 55.5 billion supply:
At 1x: Market cap = $87.7 trillion, price = ~$1,580.
At 2x: Market cap = $175.4 trillion, price = ~$3,161.
Adjusted for Realism: A $175.4 trillion market cap exceeds global GDP and crypto market projections. Adjusting to 0.5x (conservative, reflecting competition and supply limits): $43.85 trillion, price = ~$790.
Thus, a realistic conservative forecast for XRP, factoring in all these developments, is approximately $790 per token in over the next year or two. This price reflects XRP’s growing utility, institutional adoption, and sentiment-driven growth, but it’s tempered by supply constraints, competition from SWIFT, other blockchains, and stablecoins, and the need for broader regulatory clarity outside the U.S.
Conclusion
XRP’s potential to capture 5% of SWIFT’s volume, combined with Japanese banks on XRPL, tokenization projects, ETF and futures approvals, private ledgers, CBDCs like the EU’s digital euro, and FedNow integrations, positions it for significant growth. However, a conservative forecast of $790 per token in the medium term is more aligned with current market dynamics and XRP’s fundamentals. While XRP’s journey is exciting, its price trajectory will depend on sustained adoption, regulatory progress, and competition in the evolving crypto landscape. Stay tuned as XRP continues to reshape global finance!
Bitcoin - Big crash is starting! Bear flag is breaking downBitcoin's bear flag is breaking down on the 1h chart! This is a very negative price action, and we can expect a 10% drop in the next few days. What we can also see is a smaller bull flag on the 15m chart, and this flag is breaking down as well as I expected. There are too many bull traps on the bitcoin chart, but I hope you trade it accordingly!
There is not too much support, to be honest with you. I have 3 profit targets, but I really don't want to buy Bitcoin at these levels at all. It's risky and against the main bearish trend since Trump's first day in office. I think we are going to go much lower than 76k, as you probably know from my previous analysis.
This is just a quick update on the 1H chart. Write a comment with your altcoin + hit the like button, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
Bearish Daily Setup - BTC/USD
### **📉 Bearish Daily Setup - BTC/USD**
**Bias**: Bearish
**Context**: Daily DR (Dealing Range) is broken, and price is rejecting premium level.
---
### 🧠 **Narrative:**
Price traded into a daily FVG (Fair Value Gap) near **premium zone**, then formed a lower high. The daily **DR (Dealing Range)** was broken to the downside, showing bearish intent. We also see rejection from a marked supply area (pink zone), confirming seller presence.
---
### 📌 **Entry:**
Sell entry around **84,600** (near retest of daily FVG & imbalance zone)
---
### 🎯 **Targets:**
- **TP1**: 76,555 (Recent low / liquidity pool)
- **TP2**: 74,000 (Clean imbalance area)
- **TP3**: 73,383 (Final liquidity draw)
---
### 🛑 **Stop Loss:**
Above recent high / supply zone
**SL**: 88,762
---
### 🔢 **RRR**: Approx. **1:4** (Excellent reward-to-risk)
---
### 🧩 **Extra Confluences:**
- Daily FVG (imbalance) filled and rejected
- Supply zone respected
- DR broken
- Momentum shifted bearish
XAUUSD H6 Idea Gold Prices— a Warning About Global Uncertainty
- Gold prices just hit a record high, soaring past $3,085 per ounce in March 2025. That’s not just a number—it’s a warning sign. Investors aren’t piling into gold for no reason. They’re reacting to a world that feels more uncertain by the day.
- The U.S. has imposed heavy tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, triggering trade tensions that are shaking global markets. Inflation is still higher than expected, climbing to 2.8% in February, making traditional investments riskier. At the same time, the U.S. dollar is weakening, and Treasury yields are dropping, pushing investors toward gold as a safe bet. Add to that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and it’s no surprise that gold is surging. Every new crisis just makes it more attractive.
This isn’t just a temporary spike. Experts warn that the worst effects of these trade policies haven’t even hit yet, and if inflation keeps climbing, the global economy could be in for a rough ride. Gold isn’t just going up—it’s flashing a warning. It’s telling us that investors don’t trust what’s coming next. And if history is any guide, they might be right.
USDCHF .. will the weakness continue ??I really don't see any reason for a change unless of course Mr .. causes another upheaval. For now, check out your charts and note that:
Monthly - bearish
Weekly - bearish
Daily - bearish
Intraday - all bearish.
We will hit and break a few S/R levels, but IMO, we should eventually get down to 0.8400.
This is not a trade recommendation, merely my own analysis. Trading carries a high level of risk, so only trade with money you can afford to lose and carefully manage your capital and risk. If you like my idea, please give a “boost” and follow me to get even more. Please comment and share your thoughts too!!
GBP/USD Breakdown: Bearish Setup with Sell Opportunity!"Key Observations:
Rising Wedge Breakdown:
The price initially formed a rising wedge near resistance.
The wedge broke down, indicating bearish momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Resistance Zone: Around 1.3014 – 1.3027, marking a strong rejection area.
Support Zone: Around 1.2933 – 1.2843, where price previously bounced.
Strong Support: Around 1.2627, marked as the target area for a bearish move.
Bearish Setup:
A range-bound consolidation occurred after the breakdown.
The chart marks a sell signal, suggesting a move toward the 1.2627 target zone.
Trading Idea:
Entry: Sell after confirmation below 1.2933.
Target: 1.2627 (major support level).
Stop-Loss: Above 1.3014 (resistance level).
This setup suggests a potential bearish continuation, with price expected to decline further if support breaks. Always confirm with volume and market conditions before entering a trade.
Strategy testing //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Daily 10% Profit EA with 5% Max Drawdown | //| Uses RSI, Bollinger Bands, ADX, Fibonacci, Grid System | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //@version=5 strategy("Daily 10% Profit EA", overlay=true, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=10)
// Input Parameters RSI_Period = input(14, "RSI Period") ADX_Period = input(14, "ADX Period") BB_Period = input(20, "Bollinger Bands Period") BB_Deviation = input(2, "Bollinger Bands Deviation") MaxDrawdownPercent = input(5, "Max Daily Drawdown (%)") DailyProfitTargetPercent = input(10, "Daily Profit Target (%)")
// Indicators rsi = ta.rsi(close, RSI_Period) adx = ta.adx(ADX_Period) bb_upper = ta.sma(close, BB_Period) + BB_Deviation * ta.stdev(close, BB_Period) bb_lower = ta.sma(close, BB_Period) - BB_Deviation * ta.stdev(close, BB_Period)
// Fibonacci Retracement Calculation highestHigh = ta.highest(high, 50) lowestLow = ta.lowest(low, 50) fibLevel = lowestLow + (highestHigh - lowestLow) * 0.382
// Strategy Conditions longCondition = (rsi < 30 and adx > 20 and close < bb_lower) shortCondition = (rsi > 70 and adx > 20 and close > bb_upper)
// Risk Management initialBalance = strategy.equity currentEquity = strategy.equity DailyProfit = ((currentEquity - initialBalance) / initialBalance) * 100 DailyDrawdown = ((initialBalance - currentEquity) / initialBalance) * 100
dailyLimitReached = (DailyProfit >= DailyProfitTargetPercent or DailyDrawdown >= MaxDrawdownPercent)
if longCondition and not dailyLimitReached strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long) if shortCondition and not dailyLimitReached strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short)
// Close trades when daily limits are reached if dailyLimitReached strategy.close_all()
DAX 30th Marz 2025 - Recovering but not really! 20% Loss ahead!
The German DAX did an impressive rally during the last weeks. The Index has less losses than the SPX.
But- in the past, the DAX was never able, to hold his relative advantage to main indexes.
Technically side, the 3 Week Chart shows a special situation in RSI and Slow Stochastic, with predictable losses in the past.
All in all: Short recovery even with new highs possible, bu
t expect the Dax within the next 6 months much lower - price area around 17000 EUR: