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Beyond Technical Analysis

Berkshire Hathaway | No More Apple Pie & Bank Bread!No More Apple Pie and Bank Bread | Buffett’s Recipe for Market Caution Berkshire Hathaway has recently disclosed its earnings amid fluctuating around a $1 trillion valuation. A notable update is its continued reduction of stakes in overvalued assets, including a 20% decrease in holdings of Apple and Bank of America, boosting its cash reserves to $325 billion Although Warren Buffett himself isn't favoring share buybacks at present, Berkshire Hathaway stands as a compelling investment option Why Berkshire Hathaway's $325 Billion Cash Pile Signals Market Caution The company's net earnings remain subject to significant fluctuations due to rules requiring valuation changes of investment holdings. However, there was a slight decline in operating earnings, mainly driven by lower insurance underwriting income. Despite this, that segment is historically volatile, and year over year aka YoY, the company has maintained strong performance. Yea2date aka YTD, operating earnings have risen over 10%, totaling just under $33 billion compared to just below $29 billion last year. This points to an annualized earnings estimate of approximately $44 billion, implying a price2earnings aka P/E ratio of about 22, without factoring in over $320 billion in cash and significant investment holdings. Excluding cash and investments, the adjusted P/E ratio is closer to single digits. Share buybacks have paused, reflected in a ~1% decrease in the outstanding shares YoY, signaling Berkshire's assessment of current market valuations. Segment Highlights The various business units within Berkshire Hathaway showcase its robust asset base and earning capacity. Insurance underwriting income saw a sharp YoY drop, but other business areas performed strongly. Income from insurance investments remained solid, and BNSF, its railroad subsidiary, also showed strong results despite a double digit YoY decline. Berkshire Hathaway Energy continues its growth, cementing its position in the utility sector with significant renewable energy ventures. For context, NextEra Energy (NEE), with a market capitalization of $160 billion, posted quarterly earnings around 10% higher. Berkshire's other controlled and non-controlled businesses contribute over $13 billion annually, underpinning its diversification and consistent earnings performance. This strength across segments underscores its formidable financial health. Market Context Currently, market valuations are elevated by historical standards. Excluding periods of earnings dips, market enthusiasm is exceptionally high, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio nearing 30x, approaching levels last seen in 1999. Buffett and Berkshire appear to view a 3% yield from such a P/E as unattractive, especially when bonds offer higher returns. The 2008 Playbook Berkshire's track record of effectively utilizing its cash reserves is notable. Excluding its insurance float, the company still holds $150 billion in cash. During the 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire leveraged its liquidity for strategic investments in companies like General Electric, Swiss Re, Dow Chemical, and Bank of America, as well as finalizing the full acquisition of BNSF in 2010. This proactive use of capital proved advantageous. The current strategic sale of assets suggests Berkshire is preparing for potential market downturns. Given high S&P 500 valuations, reallocating part of an S&P 500 position into Berkshire Hathaway could be wise, ensuring exposure to a cash-rich portfolio capable of seizing future opportunities. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s earnings are valued lower than the broader market, potentially minimizing major downturn risks. Investment Risks A key risk is that timing the market is inherently challenging, with the adage "time in the market beats timing the market" serving as a caution. If Berkshire's market outlook is incorrect, its $300+ billion in cash could underperform while broader markets remain strong, which would diminish its appeal as an investment. Final Thoughts Berkshire Hathaway has taken the bold step of liquidating some of its most significant and priciest holdings, opting to incur capital gains taxes to increase liquidity. This move has bolstered its cash position to $325 billion, $150 billion above its float level. Meanwhile, its strong operational businesses continue generating healthy cash flow. Drawing on its successful strategies during the 2008 crisis, Berkshire appears to be positioning itself for another downturn amid current high market valuations. We advise investors to consider shifting part of their S&P 500 exposure into Berkshire Hathaway for enhanced diversification and potential benefits in a market correction, long story short Berkshire Hathaway remains a robust investment opportunity but wont make millionaire! What do you think moonypto fam?
NYSE:BRK.A
by moonypto
Trading minute impulseOn the minute timeframe of XAUUSD at the moment we have the completion of the impulse formation. If the price continues to move in the direction of the impulse and the support zones do not allow it to overcome the base of the impulse, it may reach the targets 1 and 2. If the price fails to advance in the direction of the momentum and overcomes the support zone at the base of the momentum, it is very likely that the price will move sideways or against the direction of the momentum.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by syomking76418
ETH/USD - New levels, new trades. Let’s see what unfolds!Chart is showing a break above the M5 high, signaling potential for continued upward momentum. However, we’re also monitoring closely for signs of reversal, as the price could pull back to form a short-selling opportunity. This juncture demands attention to market structure and key levels, as both a trend continuation and a correction are in play. Caution and strategy alignment are essential here especially looking for the right confirmation!
OANDA:ETHUSD
by EliteFxAcademy_CRYPTO
BNB: Potential Bearish Direction AheadBNB: Potential Bearish Direction Ahead BNB has completed another bearish channel and appears poised to move down again. A stronger confirmation will occur if the price drops below $580. If this happens, we may see the bearish momentum grow further. Considering the combination of patterns, if the price moves below $580, BNB could drop to $559 and $538 as normal support levels. As an extended movement, it could even reach $500. However, let's take it one step at a time and see if it begins to move down first. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
4
#GBPNZD 2HGBPNZD 2-Hour Analysis The GBPNZD pair is forming a descending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart, indicating potential bearish momentum. This pattern typically signals a continuation or reversal to the downside as sellers consistently push the price lower toward a horizontal support level. A breakout below this support would confirm the pattern and create a sell opportunity. Technical Outlook: - Pattern: Descending Triangle - Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) - Entry Strategy: Sell on a breakout below the support level of the triangle Traders may consider selling if the price breaks below the triangle's support line, with targets set at subsequent lower support zones. To confirm the bearish move, indicators like RSI showing weak momentum or MACD crossing downward could provide additional confidence for a short position.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
EUR/CAD Approaches Key Resistance Level on the Daily ChartEUR/CAD is currently trading near its highest resistance level since 2021, around 1.5200. This price zone has been tested multiple times in recent months, indicating strong resistance that the market has struggled to overcome. The repeated testing without a definitive breakout suggests that selling pressure may be building, which could lead to a reversal if the support below is breached. Key Resistance at 1.5200: This resistance level has been challenged several times, establishing it as an important psychological barrier in the market. The ongoing difficulty in breaking through this area supports the notion that a retracement could occur in the coming weeks. Support at 1.5075 (Potential Trigger Level): The 1.5075 level is identified as a significant support point in the short term. If the price drops below this level, it could generate considerable selling pressure, indicating that the pair has lost critical support and triggering potential short positions. Potential Selling Opportunities: Given the recent behavior of testing resistance and the absence of a sustained breakout to the upside, the current market structure suggests a possible sell-off. The trading plan may include: Short Entry: A short position could be considered if the price breaks below 1.5075, confirming the loss of support and signaling a potential reversal. Upon this breach, EUR/CAD could decline towards the 1.4900 level, where another crucial support area exists on the daily chart. Alternative Scenario: Conversely, EUR/CAD remains in an uptrend (as indicated by the black trendline on the chart), suggesting that a breakout above the 1.5200 resistance might still occur. If this level is surpassed and the price maintains above it, EUR/CAD may transition into a new price range. In this scenario, the current resistance might turn into support, with the potential for EUR/CAD to rise towards the 1.5350 region in the coming days, where additional resistance can be anticipated on the daily chart. Caution Against Fake Breakouts: Levels of resistance in EUR/CAD present ideal scenarios for fake breakouts that can lead many traders to incur losses. A fake breakout occurs when the price temporarily breaks above or below a relevant level, only to reverse quickly, misleading traders. These often manifest as candles with large wicks or tails. Therefore, it is crucial to seek confirmation before entering a trade to mitigate the risk of getting caught in such false movements. Monitoring Key Levels In summary, as EUR/CAD approaches significant resistance at 1.5200, traders should carefully monitor both resistance and support levels. A prudent approach will involve waiting for confirmation of price movements before entering positions, particularly in the context of potential fake breakouts. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
by Marketscom
#GBPJPY 4HGBPJPY 4-Hour Analysis The GBPJPY pair has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential reversal and indicating selling pressure in the market. This bearish engulfing area suggests that sellers are gaining control, creating an opportunity for a sell entry. Technical Outlook: - Pattern: Bearish Engulfing Area - Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) - Entry Strategy: Sell near the bearish engulfing area Traders may consider entering a sell position around the bearish engulfing pattern, targeting lower support levels. Confirming indicators such as RSI showing overbought conditions or MACD reflecting bearish momentum can strengthen the signal, making this a more reliable setup for a short trade.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
#EURJPY 2HEURJPY 2-Hour Analysis The EURJPY pair is currently testing a strong resistance level on the 2-hour chart, indicating potential downward pressure. This resistance level has previously acted as a barrier to upward movements, creating an opportunity for a sell setup as the price struggles to break through. Technical Outlook: - Pattern: Resistance Level - Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) - Entry Strategy: Sell near the resistance level Traders may consider entering a sell position close to the resistance area, targeting lower support zones. For added confirmation, indicators such as RSI showing overbought conditions or MACD displaying bearish divergence could strengthen the signal, making this sell setup more reliable.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
#AUDUSD 2HAUDUSD 2-Hour Analysis The AUDUSD pair has recently broken above a trendline resistance on the 2-hour chart, indicating a potential shift towards bullish momentum. This breakout suggests that buyers are gaining control, creating an opportunity for a buy entry as the price shows signs of an uptrend. Technical Outlook: - Pattern: Trendline Resistance Breakout - Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity) - Entry Strategy: Buy above the breakout level of the trendline resistance Traders may consider entering buy positions above the breakout level, with targets set at the next resistance zones. Confirmation from indicators such as RSI for bullish momentum or MACD for a positive crossover can strengthen this buy setup and support the bullish outlook.
Long
by PIPSFIGHTER
#AUDNZD 4HAUDNZD 4-Hour Analysis The AUDNZD pair is currently testing a trendline resistance on the 4-hour chart and has recently formed a bearish engulfing candle near this level. This setup indicates potential selling pressure, as the trendline resistance and bearish engulfing pattern together signal a possible downside move. Technical Outlook: - Pattern: Trendline Resistance with Bearish Engulfing - Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) - Entry Strategy: Sell near the trendline resistance and bearish engulfing area Traders may look to enter a sell position near the resistance area, with targets set at key support levels below. Additional confirmation through indicators like RSI showing overbought levels or MACD with bearish divergence could further validate the sell setup for a stronger entry signal.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER
#AUDNZD 1DAYAUDNZD Daily Analysis The AUDNZD pair is currently facing trendline resistance on the daily chart, signaling potential downward pressure. This trendline has acted as a barrier to price advances in recent sessions, providing a possible setup for a sell position as the price struggles to break through. Technical Outlook: - Pattern: Trendline Resistance - Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity) - Entry Strategy: Sell near the trendline resistance level Traders may consider selling near the trendline resistance, targeting lower support areas. For added confirmation, it’s advisable to check indicators such as RSI for overbought conditions or MACD for signs of bearish divergence, which could strengthen this sell setup.
Short
by PIPSFIGHTER