Get started

Beyond Technical Analysis

Correction Dynamics | How Long Will It Last?Correct me if I am wrong, the question right now is about the correction, right? How long will it last, how will it develop; what are the dynamics, what can we expect? These are good questions and we have some data on the chart that can help us build some approximations. Since March 2024, Bitcoin's ATH and the end of the last major bullish impulse, we had mainly three down-moves as part of a big distribution phase. 1) From 11-March through 29-April; 49 days, 7 bars. 2) From 3-June through 1-July; 28 days, 4 bars. 3) From 29-July through 2-September; 35 days, 5 bars. 3a) A variation would be from 29-July through 5-August; 7 days, 1 bar. If we add all these three together: 49, 28 and 35 days we get 112, divided by 3 gives us 37 days. This would be the average duration for each correction this year. Another way is to count from 11-March through 5-August; 147 days, 21 bars (weeks). We can divide this by the Fibonacci golden ratio and see what number we get. 91 days. Too long. Divided by 2.618 we get 68 days and by 3.618 we get 40 days. Too long, too long, too long, too long. Let's try finding a more suitable number using variation number two for the third down-move of the corrective phase. Let's add 49, 28 and 7. This will give us 84, divided by 3 and we get 12. A 12 days correction, similar to early August, would put us at 10 November, around this date. What do you think, are these methods any good or should we dig deeper? It would be a flash crash but this is the only way that is possible, the drop tends to develop much faster than the rise. Bitcoin went up for 16 months, between November 2022 and March 2024. A correction would unravel 2-2.5 faster than the rise, which would translate into 6.4 to 8 months. We are already beyond 6.4 months. 8 months would put us at 14 November, give or take a few days, and 14 November is very close to the 10-12 date which just came up with our random calculations. Just considering different scenarios, let's say that the correction will hit bottom by mid-November 2024. After that, slow but sure long-term growth. Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
9
Gold Long Term AnalysisSo I thought I'd post some thoughts for the first time on TradingView. As we've all heard a million times; 'the trend is your friend.' Given the price movement in Gold in the last week, I thought I'd zoom out on the weekly chart for Gold to see where last week's results sit with the longer-term trend. I've been using the adaptive trend finder from Julian_Eche, I like this tool because it provides some empirical rigour around identifying the trend along with some statistical testing to determine the strength. Whilst gold has been in an uptrend since ~Sept '23 we can see that the current trend was established in over the last 20 weeks with a pearson R squared of over 0.98 suggesting that the weekly close is adhering very closely to this established price channel. Last week's close appears to have been a result of some mixed economic news and profit taking however, the trend is still being respected. Given the mixed news from employment data and the PMI figures last week following higher than expected inflation data it appears that the Fed is still likely to cut 25pbs at the end of the week. The US presedential election result also looks to remain tight and it may take days for the result to be known adding uncertainty for markets. Gold ETFs have also seen substantial inflows this year as investors pour into the safe-haven asset which have supported the price. I believe that all this supports higher prices on the precious metal in the short to medium term and the intra-week movements seem to have respected established channel so far.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by dgowty
1
SUI, bound for SUI-PER gains soon, multiple x prospect!SUI has corrected heavily this past few weeks after touching a parabolic high at 2.0 zone. It trimmed down weightily to 0.6 area -- almost x3 from its highs. Now, SUI is hinting of a massive reversal after recent price breakout on its persistent bear channel structure. Expect some significant price recovery from the current zone of 0.80 with a possible re-tap of previous highs at around 2.0 ++. The current price point is an attractive seeding opportunity. This is a major order block where buyers will converge now. SUI visual data diagram is too tidy to be missed. The clues are obvious. Spotted at 0.80 Interim target set at 2.0 TAYOR.
Long
by JSAL
3
a possibility that the dollar might go up to the 105 price levela possibility that the dollar might go up to the 105 price level because there might be a significant pullback. especially since the US elections has shown a very volatile effect on the USD and several other currencies in the past week. this might be a good opportunity to take out your spoil from the market or lose too. anyways, be careful. i intend to take trades only if there's a very straightforward setup. that said, if there is no liquidity raid, i won't be taking any trade. i'm not eager to lose or make money.
TVC:DXY
by isaacnsisong
The point to watch is whether it can rise to around 2555.69 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (ETHUSDT 1D chart) I told you that in order to get out of the current box range (2273.58-2706.15), the price should be maintained above 2419.83. However, it is currently touching around 2419.83 and rising. Accordingly, I think the upward momentum may be weak. Therefore, I think it is better to wait until we see support near 2555.69. Currently, the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart has fallen below 2666.70 and is passing around 2555.69. Accordingly, I think it is not too late to buy after confirming that the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. If it rises above the upper point of the box section, 2706.15, I think it is highly likely that it will show a sharp upward trend. Therefore, it is recommended to buy below 2706.15. Once the rise begins, it is expected to rise to around 3265.0-3321.30. - Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture It is expected that a full-scale upward trend will begin after rising above 29K. The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future. We need to check if these points can be broken upward. We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
by readCrypto
This volatility period is until November 5th Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- When a new candle is created on the 1W chart, I will explain it in an update. --------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1M chart) If the BTC price touches around 89K, it is expected that it will never be below 42K again. - As the new month begins, the StochRSI indicator is showing an upward turn. However, since the StochRSI EMA is located around the 50 point, we can see that volatility still remains. The point to watch is whether the price is maintained above the StErr Line and rises above 71280.01 to challenge the ATH. The black line without any numbers indicates the upper or lower point of the box section of the HA-HIgh or HA-Low indicator. The upper or lower point of the box section of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators on the 1M and 1W charts can be used as support and resistance points when trading. - (1D chart) While falling below 68393.48, it is touching the entire MS-Signal indicator and showing an upward trend. Accordingly, it is thought that the possibility of support in the 68393.48-70148.34 section has increased. Therefore, if support is confirmed in the 68393.48-70148.34 section, it is a time to buy. As I mentioned in the previous idea, the pull back pattern is a pattern that can be recognized when it is completed. Therefore, it is quite difficult to buy at the bottom of the pull back pattern. That is why, when the decline begins after the rise, you have no choice but to check the importance of the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts and think about countermeasures for them before preemptively trading. Therefore, since the probability of failure is quite high, you must think about a loss cut or selling method before trading. If you buy in the 68393.48-70148.34 section and it rises above 70148.34, 1st: 71280.01-72344.74 2nd: 73620.12 You must check for support near the 1st and 2nd above and respond. - This volatility period is expected to start around November 4th and end around November 16th. Accordingly, we need to keep an eye on the movements around November 4th (November 3rd-5th), November 10th (November 9th-11th), and November 16th (November 15th-17th). In order to rise along the linear regression channel, the price needs to rise above 70148.34 to maintain its position, so whether it can find support and rise in the 68393.48-70148.34 range is key. ---------------------------------------------------- We choose the time frame chart to trade according to our investment style and trade according to the movement of that chart. Accordingly, we will look at the time frame chart to trade most of the time. Also, since most trading charts are likely to be below 1D charts, there is a high possibility that you will trade without understanding the overall flow. Therefore, before starting a trade, you must check and understand the flow of the 1D chart and then trade. Otherwise, you may trade incorrectly due to fakes or sweeps when trading on time frame charts below 1D charts. - Add the StochRSI indicator to the 1D chart. Set the StochRSI indicator as shown in the picture above. Then, you can check the movement similar to the StochRSI indicator that I use. (The best way is to share my chart and paste the indicator into your chart.) Then, if the StochRSI indicator is rising based on the 50 point, - you should focus on finding the time to sell, - if it is falling, you should focus on finding the time to buy. Depending on the location of the StochRSI indicator, volatility may occur. 1. When falling in the overbought zone 2. When located in the 50 point zone 3. When rising in the oversold zone When the above three movements occur, the price may show volatility. If this volatility occurs at a time, you should check the movement of the 1D chart to avoid being caught in a fake or a sweep. - The trend-based Fibonacci extension shown on the left was drawn at the point where this rise began. Therefore, you can use it only as a reference for chart analysis. - It doesn't matter which time frame chart you start trading on. However, you can create a trading strategy that matches the investment period, investment size, trading method, and profit realization method according to the time frame chart and respond accordingly. - Have a good time. Thank you. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture It is expected that the real uptrend will start after rising above 29K. The section expected to be touched in the next bull market is 81K-95K. #BTCUSD 12M 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 These are the points where resistance is likely to be encountered in the future. We need to see if we can break through these points. We need to see the movement when we touch this section because I think we can create a new trend in the overshooting section. #BTCUSD 1M If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start by creating a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33. 1st: 43833.05 2nd: 32992.55 -----------------
by readCrypto
1
Week 39 - Technical Analysis USD/CHFUSD/CHF Clearly Defined Target! I see a promising opportunity in the USD/CHF currency pair and recommend a buy position (Long-Trade). Target: The price is moving towards a higher level. I have marked my target at the top of the analysis with a green line. Stop-Loss: To minimize risk, I set the Stop-Loss at 0.84000. If the market unexpectedly breaks downward, my position will automatically close to limit losses. Strategy: This is a "Buy and Hold" strategy. I expect the market to rise in the next 2-3 weeks. I will hold the position until the defined target is reached.
Long
by myforexblog
2
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.03 - 11.08Last Week : Sunday Globex opened right over the Mean of Value and gave a push back to VAH where we spent the night and RTH of Monday consolidating under, staying under VAH meant weakness for us going into the week and we kept seeing flushes towards VAL but every move towards it was mostly done during ON hours and would be bought back up over 840s. Finally midweek buyers saw no continuation and we got an RTH volume sell that closed under the Mean into the Key Area that needed to be taken out for continuation into VAL. Once under VAL all the buyers in Value and over were trapped for Supply and once we failed to get back into Value we saw the continuation sell back into Previous Distribution Balance with a strong break of Lower Edge to put us back into lower HTF Range of 790 - 630s. We did another look below 750 end of day Thursday which failed to continue that night and gave rotation back into to the Edge and Friday we most likely saw short covering before the Weekend after a big move that gave us a push to that balance top with a failure to hold over and finished with a close under the Edge trapping more supply. This Week : Could be another tricky week as we have election coming up Tuesday and some bigger data on Thursday so of course have to be careful trading this week but what can we sort of expect after last week ? We are back in Previous Distribution Balance of 750s - 800s and IF we do have enough covering and buying still then that could keep the price around it with moves out of it finding their way back in as one of the scenarios BUT this what is different this time around from the time that we spent in this balance before is that now we have plenty of supply and trapped buyers built up over us in the above ranges Value and Over it, plus the Supply that got built over Thursday and Friday inside it, with a push and close under the Edge this shows us acceptance in this lower range and IF we don't have the buying to keep us up we get through that 750s area then I would look for continuation pushes into the Mean and VAL area which has a bigger Cost Basis that we made a while ago with a Gap which happened during a contract roll that we could try to get into. IF we do get there then that would be an area to be careful around as we can see covering there under Value and above lower Edge but it's not something I would build a house on because size can take it out and that could bring more selling to test the lower Edge and maybe a peak under it. We don't have any news or data on Monday so we have to ask will the buyers from Thursday/Friday want to hold this product into Election Day or did they Sell Friday into the short covering and the ones who didn't will sell out once we take the stops which can bring the continuation move under VAH that we are looking for. To not get too short biased, IF we are able to hold over VAH/750s and see a push back over the Edge then we would need to see price hold over 790s to bring back stability AND once stability is back would need to see a push back into above VAL, until then need to be careful looking for higher prices from the Edge as we could either balance under the Edge/VAH area or get continuation to lower targets.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
What to do the week America votes?The dollar and the Euro depending on the future president of the USA. The most important week, both for the United States and the rest of the world, and also for the currency markets. The choice between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is key for the future of the United States, as well as for the development of economies around the world. On November 5, 2024, Tuesday is the election in the USA. The election of Kamala will definitely not affect the dollar well, while the election of Trump would have a positive effect. But there is one very big BUT. In both elections, unrest is very likely to follow, which would adversely affect the United States. Thus, the "elections 2024" drama will not end with the final decision of the voters. Betting on Gold is much safer in these absolutely uncertain times. Even more so with the news that more and more millionaires are trying to leave the United States. After the employment data, this week, fundamentals will generally be left for later trading when the passions surrounding the election die down. Our advice is to choose gold instead of the dollar or euro. You can't go wrong with gold for medium to long term trading. This week, trading will start neutral in anticipation of the news surrounding the elections, but it is possible that individual players will be quite aggressive in the markets. The probability of very large trade turnovers is very high. In addition to the US election, on Tuesday you can watch the ECB's President Lagarde speech, as well as data on the ISM Services PMI (Oct). On Thursday after the election, pay attention to the Fed Interest Rate Decision, where a 25 basis point cut is expected. If everything around the election goes smoothly (although it is unlikely), then the expected lowering of interest rates in the United States will be the main driving event for the week.
by World-Signals
Analysis EUR/USDLast week, I mentioned that it would be bullish, and I hope you took advantage of the trading opportunity. On Friday, there was manipulation by the banks, which pushed the price downward. What I see is strong bearish momentum at the market close. On the lower time frames (4h/1h), we have a BOS (Break of Structure) as confirmation that there could be a continuation of the bullish momentum from last week. I will wait for Monday to develop to determine how and in what way to trade. Be patient and let’s see what the price will show us.
by andricstrahinja95
AVAX Resuming the Bearish DowntrendAVAX Resuming the Bearish Downtrend On the 60-minute chart, the price has completed an Ascending Channel pattern. After any small correction, I expect AVAX/USDT to move down further. The first target is near 25.20, which corresponds to the first support zone, and the base of the pattern near 24.20 for the second target. Considering that AVAX/USDT is already in a bearish trend, it could make a significant move down. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Short
by KlejdiCuni
6