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JPY/USD 4H Chart Analysis – Head & Shoulders Breakdown & BearishThis detailed technical analysis covers a Head & Shoulders pattern formation on the 4-hour chart of JPY/USD, highlighting a potential bearish reversal setup. The pattern suggests a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, supported by a trendline breakdown and key resistance & support levels. 1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Pattern: Head & Shoulders (H&S) 📉 What is the Head & Shoulders Pattern? The Head & Shoulders (H&S) is a classic bearish reversal pattern that appears after a prolonged uptrend, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. It consists of three main parts: Left Shoulder: A peak followed by a retracement. Head: A higher peak, indicating the last strong bullish attempt. Right Shoulder: A lower peak, failing to reach the height of the head, showing weakening momentum. Neckline: A crucial support level that connects the lows of the shoulders. A confirmed break below this neckline is the trigger for a bearish continuation. 📊 Breakdown of the Pattern in This Chart Left Shoulder (First Peak): The price made a high and then pulled back. Head (Higher Peak): The market made another higher high but failed to sustain it, indicating exhaustion. Right Shoulder (Lower Peak): A weaker attempt to push higher, but price failed to break previous highs, confirming the loss of bullish strength. Neckline Breakout: The dotted trendline shows the ascending support that was eventually broken, confirming bearish momentum. 2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Market Structure Understanding the important levels in the market is crucial for setting up an effective trade. 🟧 Resistance Zone (Supply Area) The resistance level, marked in a beige box, is located around 0.006800. Price was rejected multiple times from this zone, confirming strong selling pressure. The head of the pattern was formed in this region before a sharp drop. 🔵 Support Level (Neckline & Demand Area) The neckline of the Head & Shoulders pattern was acting as support before being broken. This level was tested multiple times before the final breakdown. Once broken, it turned into a resistance level, meaning price may pull back to this area before continuing downward. 📉 Trendline Breakout (Bearish Confirmation) A dashed trendline was previously supporting the uptrend but was broken, confirming the bearish shift in market structure. This signals a trend reversal and a possible extended move lower. 3️⃣ Trading Strategy & Execution A well-planned entry, stop loss, and take-profit strategy is essential for managing risk effectively. 📌 Entry Strategy (Short Setup) Ideal Entry: Look for price to pull back to the neckline (previous support turned resistance). Confirmation: Watch for bearish candlestick patterns such as: Bearish engulfing Pin bar rejection Shooting star Lower highs forming near the neckline A rejection in this zone confirms seller dominance and a high-probability short setup. 📌 Stop Loss Placement The Stop Loss is placed above the right shoulder at 0.006725. This ensures protection from false breakouts or unexpected bullish moves. 📌 Profit Target Projection Take-Profit Target: The projected move suggests a target at 0.006493. This aligns with previous structural support, increasing its significance. The measured move for Head & Shoulders suggests that price could fall further after confirmation. Risk-Reward Ratio The Risk (Stop Loss): Around 50 pips. The Reward (Profit Target): Around 180 pips. This results in a Risk-Reward Ratio of approximately 1:3, making it an attractive trade. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Expected Price Movement 📉 Bearish Scenario (Most Likely) Price retests the neckline but fails to break above it. Sellers step in, rejecting the resistance level, leading to further downside. Price targets the next major support at 0.006493, completing the Head & Shoulders move. 📈 Bullish Scenario (Alternative) If price reclaims the neckline and moves back above 0.006725, the pattern is invalidated. This could lead to a bullish continuation back toward previous highs. In this case, traders should cut losses early and avoid forcing a short trade. 5️⃣ Risk Management & Best Practices 1️⃣ Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of your account per trade to maintain long-term profitability. 2️⃣ Confirmation Before Entry: Wait for price to reject the neckline resistance before entering short. Avoid entering too early without clear bearish signs. 3️⃣ Monitor News & Fundamentals: Major economic events, interest rate decisions, or central bank announcements could impact JPY/USD price action. 🔎 Final Conclusion: Bearish Outlook on JPY/USD The Head & Shoulders breakdown signals a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The neckline breakout confirms seller control over the market. The best short entry is on a pullback to previous support (now resistance). Target at 0.006493, with a Stop Loss at 0.006725 ensures controlled risk. 📢 Trading Bias: Bearish 📉 💡 Watch for a retest & rejection before entering short.
Short
by GoldMasterTrades
"Bitcoin Breakout Setup: Potential Rally Towards $94K!"Key Observations: Support Zone: A crucial support level is marked below the broken channel, indicating a potential area for a price reversal. Bullish Projection: A breakout above this support level could push BTC higher towards the target price of 94,101.24 USD. Technical Patterns: The price initially showed a strong downtrend, followed by a recovery forming an ascending channel, and now a potential bullish breakout is expected. Trading Plan: Bullish Scenario: If BTC holds above the support level, a strong move upwards toward 94,101.24 USD could be expected. Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold support could result in further downside toward lower key levels. Conclusion: Traders might look for buying opportunities near the support zone with a potential upside target of 94,101.24 USD while managing risk in case of further breakdown. Would you like to refine this further or add specific indicators? 🚀
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by PIPsOptimizer
XAG/USD Rising Wedge Breakdown To Bearish Trade Setup1. Overview of the Chart This chart represents Silver (XAG/USD) on the 4-hour timeframe from the OANDA exchange. The price action has formed a Rising Wedge pattern, which is a classic bearish reversal formation. This suggests that a potential breakdown could lead to a significant decline in price. 2. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation A Rising Wedge consists of a narrowing price range with higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the support line (bottom trendline) is steeper than the resistance line (top trendline). This signals weakening bullish momentum, as buyers are struggling to push the price higher, and sellers are stepping in. Rising Wedges typically break downward due to the loss of buying strength. 3. Key Technical Levels and Market Structure A. Resistance Level (Highlighted in Beige Box - $34.50 to $34.80) This zone has acted as a supply area, where price struggles to break higher. The price touched this level multiple times, failing to hold above it, which increases the probability of a reversal. B. Support Level (Highlighted in Blue Box - Around $33.50) This is a critical short-term support where buyers previously stepped in. A break below this zone would indicate a confirmation of the wedge breakdown and further downside potential. C. Stop Loss Level (Marked at $34.80) Placed above the resistance zone, ensuring protection if price invalidates the pattern and moves higher instead. This aligns with a logical risk-management strategy to minimize losses if the setup fails. D. Bearish Breakdown Projection & Target (Marked at $30.46) The projected target aligns with previous structure support, meaning price may find buyers around this level. This level is determined by measuring the height of the wedge and projecting it downward from the breakout point. 4. Trading Strategy & Execution Plan 📌 Short (Sell) Trade Setup: Entry: Enter a short position once price breaks below the lower trendline of the wedge with strong bearish momentum (e.g., a big red candle closing below support). A possible retest of the broken support could provide a second entry opportunity. Stop Loss: Set at $34.80, above resistance, to ensure the trade is protected against invalidation. Take Profit (Target): First target: $32.50 (psychological level and minor support). Final target: $30.46 (major support and full pattern breakdown projection). 5. Market Psychology & Confirmation Signals Why This Setup is Bearish? Price action shows higher highs but with decreasing strength, signaling bull exhaustion. The Rising Wedge is a well-known bearish structure, and its breakdown typically leads to a strong sell-off. Volume confirmation: If the breakdown happens with high volume, it strengthens the bearish case. What to Watch For? A decisive bearish candle closing below the wedge support confirms the short setup. If price retests the broken trendline and fails to reclaim it, it provides a second opportunity for entry. Avoid entering if price consolidates near resistance instead of breaking down. 6. Conclusion: Bearish Bias & Trading Edge The Rising Wedge formation suggests that Silver is losing bullish momentum and could break down. Key levels and structure provide a well-defined trade setup, ensuring a good risk-to-reward ratio. Traders should wait for a confirmed breakdown before entering a short position. 📉 Bearish Outlook – Price likely to drop toward $30.46 target ⚠️ Risk Management is crucial – Stop Loss at $34.80 🎯 Breakdown confirmation needed before entering short positions Would you like me to refine any part or add more insights? 😊
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
5
Setting Support and Resistance Levels on a ChartIdentifying support and resistance levels helps pinpoint potential points of price growth or decline for an asset. I’ve tried various methods, such as Fibonacci levels and Gann fan, but they tend to be inconsistent—sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. In practice, marking previous highs and lows on the chart and using them as reference points has proven to be much more effective. If the price confidently breaks through a previous peak, it strongly suggests a trend continuation. However, it’s important to understand that support and resistance levels are not impenetrable barriers but rather guidelines indicating where the price might move. These levels are useful for: setting stop-losses, calculating the risk-reward ratio, providing additional confirmation for entering a position. When the price approaches a previous high, it’s crucial to observe market reactions. Jumping into a long position expecting a breakout or shorting in anticipation of a pullback isn’t always the best approach. It’s more rational to wait, see how the price interacts with the level, and then make a trading decision. I mark key levels retrospectively, using data from several decades if available. Example: Silver Let’s see how this method works with silver. In January 1980, the price peaked at $47.97, followed by a global decline. In May 2011, 30 years later, the price approached $47.97 again, slightly surpassing it but failing to reach $50. After that, a major downtrend began. This example clearly demonstrates the strength of support and resistance levels—even without considering inflation. And it's not the only one. How to Apply This Method? Open a chart of your chosen asset on higher timeframes (1D, 1W, 1M), study historical data, and mark key high and low levels. This will help you better understand the market and make more informed trading decisions.
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by kventinka
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Breakdown – Rising Wedge Signals Further Drop!1. Chart Overview This 4-hour BTC/USD chart from BITSTAMP presents a well-defined Rising Wedge pattern, which is a bearish reversal structure typically signaling an upcoming price decline. After a strong upward movement, Bitcoin formed a wedge pattern with higher highs and higher lows converging. This indicates weakening bullish momentum, leading to a confirmed breakdown. 2. Key Technical Elements & Market Structure A. Rising Wedge Formation (Bearish Pattern) A rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that appears after an uptrend, showing gradually weakening buying pressure. The chart shows that price action was following an upward sloping support and resistance trendline. The higher highs and higher lows formed within the wedge indicate a loss of bullish momentum. Eventually, the price broke below the lower trendline, confirming a bearish breakdown. B. Breakdown Confirmation A decisive bearish candle broke below the wedge's lower trendline, confirming the downward move. After breaking down, the price attempted a small retest of the wedge’s support, which has now turned into resistance. This successful rejection from the previous support adds to the bearish confirmation. C. Support & Resistance Levels Resistance Level ($88,547): This zone acted as a strong supply area, where previous bullish moves were rejected. If BTC/USD attempts to recover, this area may provide selling opportunities. Support Level ($79,193): This is the next downside target, aligned with previous price consolidation zones. A break below this support could trigger further selling pressure. 3. Trading Setup & Strategy A. Short Trade Setup Entry Point: After BTC/USD confirmed the breakdown of the rising wedge. Stop Loss: Placed slightly above the $88,547 resistance level to limit risk. Target Price: A decline towards $79,193, which aligns with the previous major support zone. B. Bearish Market Sentiment BTC/USD is currently trading below the wedge, reinforcing bearish bias. A successful retest of the broken wedge support would validate further downside continuation. If price remains below the $85,000 level, sellers are likely to maintain control. 4. Market Outlook & Next Price Action Bearish Scenario If BTC fails to reclaim the wedge breakdown level, further downside is expected. A breakdown below $80,000 psychological level could increase selling momentum toward $75,000-$77,000 levels. Volume analysis suggests that selling pressure is increasing. Bullish Scenario (Invalidation) If BTC/USD reclaims the $88,547 resistance and closes above it, the bearish bias could weaken. Bulls need to break above the rising wedge resistance trendline for a reversal. 5. Conclusion & Trading Plan The Rising Wedge pattern breakdown confirms a bearish outlook for BTC/USD. The risk-reward ratio for a short trade is favorable, targeting a move down to $79,193. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and trend continuation signals before entering. Key Takeaways ✅ Bearish Bias confirmed after the Rising Wedge breakdown. ✅ Short Position setup with entry, stop loss, and target defined. ✅ Resistance at $88,547 - Failure to break above it strengthens the bearish case. ✅ Target at $79,193 - A strong support area where buyers may step in. 6. Tags for TradingView Post #BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #TradingSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #BearishPattern #RisingWedge #Breakdown #ShortTrade #PriceAction #SupportResistance #MarketAnalysis Would you like any further refinements or additional insights? 🚀
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
"Gold (XAU/USD) Approaching 3,110 – Sell Setup in Play?"The price is in an uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows. A potential reversal zone is identified around $3,110, marked as a possible sell entry. The chart suggests that after reaching $3,110, the price may decline towards the support zone at $3,010 - $2,999. Confirmation of the sell trade can be considered if price action forms a bearish structure around resistance. Key support levels are at $3,010, $2,999, and $2,981, which could act as potential take profit targets for short positions. Trading Strategy: Sell Entry: Around $3,110, if resistance holds. Target: $3,010 - $2,999 zone. Stop Loss: Above $3,120 to manage risk. This idea follows technical price action, making it crucial to watch for confirmation signals before executing a trade. 🚀📉
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PIPsOptimizer
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Analysis: Bullish Pennant Breakout to Target1. Overview of the Chart This 4-hour chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) presents a bullish pennant pattern, which is a strong continuation formation, indicating that the price is likely to continue its upward trajectory. The price action has followed a clear trend structure, and we can identify key support and resistance levels, breakout points, and potential profit targets. This analysis provides a comprehensive breakdown of the chart setup, including: The technical pattern formation Key support and resistance zones Trade setup with an ideal entry, stop loss, and profit target Risk management considerations Market conditions and external factors to monitor 2. Breakdown of the Chart Pattern: Bullish Pennant Formation Understanding the Bullish Pennant Pattern A bullish pennant is a continuation pattern that occurs after a strong upward movement (known as the "flagpole"). The market then consolidates within a small triangular shape, forming the pennant. This consolidation is seen as a temporary pause before the next bullish move. Key Characteristics of the Pennant in this Chart Flagpole Formation: The steep rally before the pennant formed represents a strong bullish impulse, driven by increased buying pressure. This rapid price increase set the foundation for the pennant pattern. Consolidation (Pennant Formation): Price action moved within converging trendlines, forming a symmetrical triangular pattern. The market temporarily paused, as some traders took profits while others awaited further momentum. This type of consolidation is common before the price resumes its trend. Breakout from the Pennant: The bullish breakout above the upper trendline of the pennant confirms the continuation of the uptrend. A strong breakout suggests renewed buying interest, likely pushing prices toward the next resistance level. 3. Key Technical Levels on the Chart A. Resistance Level (Potential Selling Zone) A critical resistance zone is marked between $3,100 - $3,125, where selling pressure could emerge. If the price faces rejection in this zone, a temporary retracement could occur before another push higher. A breakout above this resistance level would further strengthen the bullish case, possibly pushing gold toward the $3,175 - $3,200 range. B. Support Level (Demand Zone) The support zone is around $3,025 - $3,017, which is the last significant swing low. This level represents a strong buying area where traders may look for re-entry on a pullback. A break below this support could invalidate the bullish setup, signaling a shift in market sentiment. C. Trendline Support (Dynamic Support) The dashed black trendline represents an uptrend support. If price retraces toward this level and holds, it may offer another buying opportunity before resuming its uptrend. A break below this trendline would be a warning signal, suggesting a weakening of bullish momentum. 4. Trade Setup and Execution Strategy A. Entry Strategy The ideal entry point was upon the confirmed breakout above the pennant, around $3,075 - $3,085. Aggressive traders may have entered at the breakout itself. Conservative traders may wait for a pullback to retest the breakout zone before entering, ensuring confirmation. B. Stop Loss Placement (Risk Management) A stop loss is placed below the support zone at $3,017 to minimize downside risk. This placement protects against false breakouts or unexpected market reversals. Keeping a tight stop loss allows for a higher risk-to-reward ratio while maintaining a disciplined approach. C. Profit Target Projection (Expected Price Movement) The target price is determined using the measured move approach, where the height of the flagpole is added to the breakout point. The expected profit target is in the range of $3,175 - $3,200, offering a potential upside of 4.29% from the breakout level. If price maintains its bullish momentum, further gains could be expected beyond the target zone. 5. Risk Management & Considerations A. Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) This trade setup provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR). With an entry near $3,085, a stop loss at $3,017, and a target around $3,175, the trade offers a reward-to-risk ratio of approximately 3:1. This ensures that even if the trade does not succeed, the risk is controlled while allowing significant upside potential. B. Factors That Could Invalidate the Setup Failure to sustain the breakout: If price falls back below the pennant, the setup may be invalid. Break below the support zone ($3,017): This would signal a possible trend reversal. Weak volume on breakout: A lack of volume could indicate a false breakout, leading to price retracement. C. Alternative Trade Scenarios Scenario 1: Retest & Continuation: If price pulls back to retest the breakout zone ($3,075 - $3,085) and holds, traders can look for another buying opportunity. Scenario 2: False Breakout & Reversal: If price falls below the support level ($3,017), traders should exit long positions and re-evaluate market conditions. 6. Market Conditions & External Factors to Monitor A. Gold’s Correlation with USD & Interest Rates Stronger USD → Downward Pressure on Gold Weaker USD → Bullish Gold Trend Interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve play a significant role in gold prices. B. Economic Events & News Impact Inflation Reports: Higher inflation often supports gold prices. Geopolitical Tensions: Political instability can lead to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Stock Market Movements: A weaker stock market can drive capital into gold. 7. Conclusion: Bullish Outlook with Cautious Optimism Key Takeaways: ✔ Bullish pennant breakout confirmed – strong continuation signal. ✔ Price is above key support & trendline – maintaining bullish structure. ✔ Clear trade plan with entry, stop loss, and target levels. Trading Plan Summary: Entry Stop Loss Target Risk-Reward Ratio $3,075 - $3,085 $3,017 $3,175 - $3,200 3:1 📌 Final Recommendation: Maintain a bullish bias as long as price holds above the support zone ($3,017). Watch for volume confirmation to ensure the breakout is valid. Adjust stop loss or secure profits if price reaches key resistance levels ($3,100 - $3,125). If you need further clarification or alternative trade scenarios, let me know! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GoldMasterTrades
XRP USDXRP/USD Short Position Update Currently tracking a short setup on XRP/USD, with an entry at 2.17554, stop loss at 2.22573, and a target of 2.10437. Market Structure: Price rejected a key resistance level, showing signs of exhaustion. Bearish Confluence: Increased selling pressure with wicks forming at the highs, indicating potential downside continuation. Risk Perspective: The trade aligns with the broader trend, respecting liquidity zones and key support levels. Watching for a decisive move toward the TP, with risk management in place should momentum shift. Let’s see how price action unfolds. #XRP #Crypto #Trading #PriceAction
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDShort
by TradeYourLifeAway
$BTC for Next week (31st March - 4th April)Given out all the ideas, Will react to the market based on which idea presents itself. If Yellow line - Its better to stay out of the markets. With the other wait for MSS (Market Structure Shift) and then take the trade and target the other side of the liquidity. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P BINANCE:BTCUSDT Overall I'm neutral on CRYPTOCAP:BTC but SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ and NYSE:ES look bearish to me, and CRYPTOCAP:BTC could follow.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MrVelvet_
DYDX USDT – 100x soon Yes, it is dull to make predictions, so I will make one. DYDX USDT First the last drop of the cycle -50% Then moon Something like this Start $0,5 -> $2,5 Reversal $2,5 -> $1 Extension $1 -> $10 Reversal $10 -> $5 End $5 -> $55 This post is for entertainment only. The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or other professional advice. Always seek the guidance of a qualified financial advisor before making any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and any investment involves risks. We are not responsible for any actions taken based on this information."
by CBD2000
3
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 5th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). After a brief correction at the pivot forecast on March 19 (see the previous post), gold resumed its bullish trend at the extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury. ⚠️ Holding the long position from the extreme forecast on March 3. The movement range to the pivot forecast on March 19 for GC futures exceeded USD12K per contract. Those who took profits, I hope you reopened long positions. The next extreme forecast for gold is April 7.
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 11th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. We are in the second phase, which appears bearish by all indications. This is a significant bear market completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in my previous posts. My preliminary timeline projections for the base cycle completion were mentioned in the previous post. ⚠️ The extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury – turned the market downward after a small bullish correction. This was anticipated last week. The market lacked the strength even to reach the resistance level at 5850. A short position has been opened. The next extreme forecast is April 7.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
Buy now BTCUSDFibonacci Retracement Levels The chart uses Fibonacci retracement from a low of around $60,290 to a high of $107,187 to find potential support and resistance levels. Key levels: 0.236 (23.6%) at $96,119 (resistance) 0.382 (38.2%) at $89,272 0.5 (50%) at $83,738 (current price zone) 0.618 (61.8%) at $78,205 (strong support) 0.786 (78.6%) at $70,326 Current Price Action BTC is currently trading around $83,361. It has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level, which is often seen as a critical zone for trend continuation. Trend Projection A downward trendline was broken, suggesting a possible trend reversal. A bullish move (red arrow) is projected, targeting the green resistance box around $116,000 - $120,000. The price needs to break above $89,272 and $96,119 to confirm this upward move. Key Takeaway If BTC holds above the 50% retracement level and continues upward, it could be aiming for a new high. If it fails, it may retest the $78,205 or $70,326 support levels before another attempt at breaking out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by wealthsmith23
Chaos to Clarity: Mastering the Discipline Mindset5min read Looking back on my journey as an investor, I can see how much my mindset shaped my path. When I first started, I was a mess—chasing every hot tip, jumping into trades without a plan, and letting my emotions call the shots. I’d feel a surge of excitement when price spiked, but the moment it dipped, I’d panic and sell, locking in losses. It was a chaotic rollercoaster, and I was losing more than I was gaining. I knew something had to change, but I wasn’t sure where to begin. One day, I took a step back and really looked at myself. I realized the market wasn’t my biggest problem—I was. I was reacting to every little fluctuation, letting fear and greed drive my decisions. I started paying close attention to how I felt when I made trades. Was I anxious? Overconfident? I began noticing patterns. When I was stressed, I’d make impulsive moves that almost never worked out. But when I was calm and focused, my choices were better, and I’d often come out ahead. That was my first big revelation: my state of mind was the key to everything. I decided to get serious about controlling my emotions. I started small, setting strict rules for myself. I’d only trade when I was in a good headspace—calm, clear, and ready to stick to my plan. If I felt off, I’d step away from the screen, no exceptions. It was tough at first. I’d catch myself itching to jump into a trade just because everyone else was talking about it. But I learned to pause, take a deep breath, and check in with myself. Over time, I got better at staying steady, even when the market was a whirlwind. I also realized how much my beliefs were holding me back. I used to think I had to be in the market constantly to make money. If I wasn’t trading, I felt like I was missing out. But that mindset just led to burnout and bad calls. I started to change my thinking—I told myself it was okay to sit on the sidelines if the conditions weren’t right. I began to see that success wasn’t about being the busiest; it was about being the smartest. I focused on quality over quantity, and that shift made a huge difference. My wins started to outnumber my losses, and I felt more in control than I ever had. One of the toughest lessons came when I stopped blaming external factors for my failures. If a trade went south, I’d point the finger at the market, the news, or even the system I was using. But deep down, I knew that wasn’t the whole truth. I had to take responsibility for my own actions. I started treating every loss as a chance to learn. What was I feeling when I made that trade? Was I following my rules, or did I let my emotions take over? By owning my mistakes, I began to grow. I became more disciplined, more aware of my own patterns, and better at sticking to what worked. I’m not going to pretend I’m perfect now—I still make mistakes, plenty of them. At the beginning of this week, I came into trading loaded with personal problems from real life. I didn’t even pause to clear my head; I just dove straight into the charts and started opening long positions without much thought. By Friday, I realized what I’d done—I’d let my distracted, emotional state drive my decisions. So, I closed all my positions except one, cutting my losses quickly and stepping back to reassess. That’s what’s changed: I recognize those mistakes almost immediately now. I don’t hang on to them or let them spiral. I catch myself, fix the problem fast, and move on without beating myself up. That ability to pivot quickly has been a game-changer. I’m not stuck in the past anymore—I’m focused on getting better with every step. Over time, I learned to tune out the noise and focus on what I could control. I stopped worrying about what other people were doing and started trusting my own process. I’d remind myself that investing isn’t just about the numbers—it’s about the person behind the trades. The more I worked on my mindset, the more consistent my results became. I learned to stay present, keep my emotions in check, and approach every decision with a clear head. That’s what turned me into the investor I am today—someone who’s not just chasing profits, but building a sustainable, successful approach to the markets, mistakes and all.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALEducation
by vagada
Reciprocal tariffs - gold continues to rise✍️ NOVA hello everyone, Let's comment on gold price next week from 03/31/2025 - 04/04/2025 🔥 World situation: Gold prices surged on Friday, reaching a new all-time high of $3,086 as uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and an uptick in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge fueled demand for the safe-haven metal. Following this, market sentiment suggests growing confidence that the Fed will implement two rate cuts in 2025. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,079, up 0.79%. Investor sentiment remains cautious as markets brace for April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, who has signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles. This move has sparked global reactions, particularly from Canada and the European Union (EU), both of which are preparing retaliatory measures in response to the tariffs. 🔥 Identify: Gold price moves up, early April will continue to explode to NEW Ath 🔥 Technically: Based on the resistance and support areas of the gold price according to the H4 frame, NOVA identifies the important key areas as follows: Resistance: $3100, $3132, $3150 Support : $3002, $2957 🔥 NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account - The winner is the one who sticks with the market the longest
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
3
Threads of Volatility: A DOTM Conexity Play on PVHStitched for a Breakout: A DOTM Conexity Thesis on PVH Ahead of Earnings Thesis Overview PVH Corp. (NYSE: PVH) presents a compelling high-convexity options play as it approaches a long-term ascending support line ahead of its Q4 earnings release on March 31, 2025. With the stock trading at $64.34, technical indicators suggest a potential inflection point — and options markets have yet to fully price in the magnitude of a possible breakout or breakdown. This creates an opportunity to structure a limited-risk, asymmetric payoff using a Deep Out-of-the-Money (DOTM) strangle. Technical & Volatility Context Multi-year trendline support remains intact, historically leading to outsized reversals or continuations. RSI near 37 suggests oversold conditions with potential mean reversion. Implied Volatility (IV) on April options is hovering around 48–52%, modest given PVH’s history of 7–15% single-day moves post-earnings. Strategy: DOTM Strangle Expiration: April 17, 2025 (17 days after earnings) Position: Long 3x $60 Calls @ $2.30 Long 3x $55 Puts @ $1.10 Total Premium Outlay: $1,020 This strangle positions the trader for a large directional move without bias, capitalizing on any post-earnings volatility expansion. Breakeven & Move Requirements Strike/Target Price % Move from Current Call Strike $60.00 –6.75% Upper Breakeven $63.40 –1.46% Put Strike $55.00 –14.52% Lower Breakeven $51.60 –19.80% This structure reflects an attractive skew, as the stock is already below the call strike, reducing the upside breakeven distance. On the downside, the wider move required is offset by stronger historical downside volatility patterns. Payoff Dynamics The maximum loss is capped at $1,020, while gains are uncapped if PVH exhibits a strong directional reaction to earnings. The trade benefits from: A breakout above $63.40, where the calls gain exponentially. A breakdown below $51.60, where the puts pay out. Any unexpected catalyst or revaluation that increases realized volatility relative to the current IV curve. Conclusion With earnings serving as the primary catalyst, PVH is poised at a technically and psychologically critical level. The DOTM strangle offers an elegant, defined-risk play on the stock’s volatility expansion, with significant upside potential. For traders seeking asymmetric setups into earnings season, this is a thesis worth stitching into your watchlist.
NYSE:PVHShort
by TheHouseofTrade