Beyond Technical Analysis
Analysis Dollar / DXY Hello everyone,
I haven't been active the whole week. I'm sharing my analysis for the upcoming week.
The dollar's bullish momentum was purely market manipulation. What I see is a significant amount of liquidity below that the price wants to collect before continuing with its bullish movement.
On the weekly (W) chart, the price is still in consolidation, which could last for a while longer.
The daily (D) chart has been in a downtrend so far, but there was a BOS (Break of Market Structure). For this reason, I believe the dollar will be bearish next week.
THIS WEEK GOLD (XAUUSD) TRADE SETUP PAIR : GOLD
✔ Classic BULLISH formation
GOLD is holding continuous UP Trend. Gold created the CURRECTION MOVEMENT fb ABCd or 1 2 3 web. We observe that if the Lower point is rejected or liquidity swipe then the market can come to 2715, 2706 & 2695. If retraces first & BULL RUN then the open market will see 2732 -2730 to go fly 2771 and 2790 levels in ZONE. This week i think gold market SO MUCH VOLATILE bcz us election fact.. So I can take BUY entry our suitable Demand ZONE when the market bull run . If your analysis matches it take a trade otherwise skip the trade.
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Parody XAU/USD Outlook: Gold’s Election DramaParody XAU/USD Outlook: Gold’s Pre-Election Circus & Post-Election Whiplash
Get ready for the ultimate trading drama, featuring XAU/USD (Gold)! With the election madness in full swing, we’re in for a wild ride of market hysterics, gold volatility, and enough overreactions to make a soap opera seem tame. Buckle up, traders, because the gold market is about to serve up some Academy Award-worthy theatrics!
The Gold Market Soap Opera: Recap of 2020’s Election Madness (Now Reimagined for 2024)
Pre-Election Day Scenario (November 4, 2024)
Gold, the self-proclaimed star of market drama, is sitting pretty at $2,734.47, pretending not to care that the world is on the brink of election chaos. Traders, on the other hand, are a mess: pacing, biting their nails, and staring at their screens as if they can will gold to move.
• Market Action: Gold barely twitches. It’s as if it’s waiting for the main event, swinging within a tame $10-$15 range. Yawn.
• Investor Vibes: Pure anxiety. Everyone’s too scared to make a bold move, choosing instead to sit on their hands and binge-eat their feelings.
Election Day Scenario (November 5, 2024)
The day dawns with an air of suspense thicker than an over-hyped movie premiere. Gold springs to life, bouncing around like a caffeinated squirrel. Every whisper, every poll update sends prices into a tizzy, and traders are left scrambling: “Do we buy? Do we sell? Or do we run and hide?”
• Market Action: Gold swings wildly, showing 1-2% intraday moves as headlines break. It’s a drama lover’s dream, and gold revels in every moment.
• Investor Hysteria: Off the charts. Traders flip from optimistic to panicked, clutching their trading platforms like lifeboats.
Post-Election Day Scenario (November 6-7, 2024)
Results are trickling in, and the market is bracing for impact. If there’s any hint of a contested outcome, gold will go full drama queen, soaring 2-3% just to make sure no one can ignore its grand entrance. Fear and uncertainty are the names of the game, and gold plays both roles to perfection.
• Market Action: Volatility goes parabolic, with price swings of $30-$40. It’s a no-holds-barred extravaganza that either makes or breaks trading accounts.
• Investor Sentiment: From jubilation to despair, traders are on an emotional rollercoaster. Gold is in its element, basking in the chaos.
GOLDontheNILE Fantasy Trade Setup
Pre-Election Setup: Gold on Standby
• Entry: Long at $2,734.50 if gold starts flirting with the upper resistance, or Short at $2,730.00 if it shows signs of cracking under pressure.
• Take Profit: Modest, around $10-$15 per move, because gold isn’t quite ready to commit to a direction.
• Stop Loss: Tight, $5-$10, to avoid pre-election jitters catching you off guard.
Election Day Setup: Gold’s Main Act
• Entry:
• Long at $2,742.00 if headlines send traders flocking to gold like it’s the last safe asset on Earth.
• Short at $2,735.00 if market optimism kicks in and gold takes a dive.
• Take Profit 1 (TP1): $2,748.24 for the longs or $2,730.50 for the shorts.
• Take Profit 2 (TP2): $2,754.56 if gold is in full-on rally mode, or $2,727.72 if the sell-off intensifies.
• Stop Loss: $2,731.45 for longs or $2,743.57 for shorts, to cover unexpected reversals.
Post-Election Setup: Gold’s Encore Performance
• Entry:
• Long at $2,755.00 if results are contested and gold explodes.
• Short at $2,740.00 if a clear winner is declared and risk appetite returns.
• Take Profit 1 (TP1): $2,765.00 for longs or $2,733.04 for shorts.
• Take Profit 2 (TP2): $2,780.00 for the ultimate gold rally, or $2,720.00 if the meltdown continues.
• Stop Loss: Wide and cautious, $10-$20 to account for extreme volatility.
The Gold Market Circus: Sessions Breakdown
Asian Session: Boring, like a prequel no one asked for. Gold barely moves, even if election gossip starts spreading. Expect $10-$15 ranges, max.
European Session: Things get semi-serious. Traders perk up, trying to decipher what’s going on. Expect $20-$25 ranges as Europe starts caring about election drama.
American Session: Absolute mayhem. Gold swings like it’s in a drama contest, moving $30-$40 on wild headlines. Traders will either strike gold or cry into their trading logs.
VIX: The Unpredictable Wild Card
VIX is in full-on drama mode, teetering between “Total Panic!” and “False Alarm.” If it spikes, expect gold to ride the fear wave. If it calms down, gold might sulk back into obscurity.
Conclusion: Gold’s Love-Hate Relationship with Election Drama
So here we are, awaiting another episode of market chaos. Will gold shine like a Hollywood star or sulk like a rejected diva? Only time—and election results—will tell. Until then, expect gold to keep traders on their toes (or knees, begging for stability).
Stay sarcastic, trade smart, and may your trading accounts survive the election drama!
THIS WEEK DXY TRADE SETUPINDEX : DXY
✔ Classic BULLISH formation
DXY is holding continuous UP Trend so after market retracement I can take BUY entry . If your analysis matches it take a trade otherwise skip the trade.
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BTC USD UpdateAnother monthly bullish candle has closed, but the bullish bias stopped the trend just before the all-time high in BTC/USD pair High liquidity has been grabbed, and we've seen a massive bearish reaction. I have a runner and a stop-loss below 65,149.51. If we lose this level, we're in bearish mode.
Let's see what market makers are planning to do this week and what the overall end-of-year price action will be. I'll try to share some good setups, but going long just before we missed taking out the high looks a bit risky, so I'm in scalping mode, sitting behind order flow software and trying to catch a high-volume ride somewhere. I'll keep you posted!
XAU/USD shorts from 2,760 or Longs from 2,720This week, my analysis suggests that gold may continue to drop, targeting the trendline liquidity formed below. Once that liquidity is taken out, I anticipate a bullish reaction, potentially around the demand zone I have identified. If the price retraces up to the supply zone, I’ll look for potential sell opportunities to follow this short-term bearish trend.
Since my overall bias is bullish, I am more inclined towards long positions due to the higher time frame outlook. However, if the price surpasses any of my nearby Points of Interest (POIs), I’ll watch for a deeper retracement around the demand at 2,680 or the supply at 2,780.
Confluences for Gold Sells:
- Price has shown a bearish shift on the higher time frame.
- Supply zones remain on both the 1-hour and daily charts.
- There is significant trendline liquidity below, providing a target for further downside movement.
- The dollar has been moving bullishly, which aligns with a potential drop in gold.
- Gold has been in a strong bullish trend and may be showing signs of exhaustion, hence the recent heavy decline.
P.S. I’ll stay vigilant and assess where the price moves first. If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll have a stronger inclination to sell.
Have a great trading week!
EUR/USD Analysis: Potential Bearish Continuation SetupIn this analysis, we’re looking at a potential bearish setup for the EUR/USD on the 15-minute timeframe. Here’s a closer look at the key elements of the chart and the rationale behind this bearish outlook.
1. Trendline Break Signals Bearish Shift The chart reveals an upward trendline that had been supporting price action over recent sessions. However, this trendline was decisively broken to the downside, suggesting that the previous bullish momentum may be fading. This trendline break is often an early sign of a shift in sentiment, indicating that sellers could be gaining control.
2. Identifying Supply Zones for a Potential Reversal Two supply zones have been identified on the chart, where we expect potential selling pressure if the price retraces to these levels. These zones represent areas where sellers could step in and push the price lower if the retracement brings the pair back to these resistance areas. Watching price action as it approaches these zones will be crucial.
3. Waiting for Bearish Confirmation Patterns To strengthen this bearish setup, we’re looking for specific candlestick patterns within the supply zones, namely an Evening Star or a Bearish Engulfing pattern. Both patterns indicate strong selling momentum and would act as confirmation that sellers are indeed stepping in. A sharp move downward from one of these patterns would provide an ideal entry signal for a short trade.
4. Projected Bearish Continuation If bearish patterns form within the highlighted supply zones, there’s a good probability of a continuation to the downside. The projected path, indicated by the downward arrow on the chart, suggests a move toward the lower support zone, near the 1.07915 level. This level serves as a key area of interest where price could find temporary support, making it a logical target for short positions.
5. Key Levels to Watch Currently, the price is hovering around the 1.08336 mark. If bearish patterns materialize and sellers continue to dominate, we could see a move towards the 1.07915 level. However, should price break above the supply zones without showing bearish patterns, it would invalidate this setup, and we’d reassess the outlook.
Conclusion In summary, this analysis outlines a bearish scenario for EUR/USD based on a trendline break, potential supply zones, and confirmation through bearish candlestick patterns. Waiting for confirmation within these supply zones is essential to avoid premature entries. If these signals align, the 1.07915 area presents an attractive target for a potential downside move.
USOIL View!!** Indeed, S&P 500 index is struggling to rekindle its spirit
** Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
US10Y
climbing into the Cloud, and on track to rise for an eighth straight week
** Nearly every sector startled: Technology most timid, while just Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services show gri
XAU/USD BIG Monthly warning price level mismatchHello there,
just a little heads up here. I have putted together the levels where retails traders are in and the zones important for long-term investors. It seems that we are overdue for at least the little pullback possibly to 2359 area which is completely in the line with analyses I published yesterday. It does not mean that pullback already started as we might be in an early stages where any signifficant correction is not yet confirmed. 2700 level is the one which might decide and is better to watch closely.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend
JZ
USDCAD View!!The Canadian dollar weakened to a two-year low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as the greenback notched broad-based gains ahead of the U.S. presidential election and despite domestic data that showed factory activity growing at a faster pace.
The loonie
USDCAD
was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3950 to the U.S. dollar, or 71.68 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since October 2022 at 1.3953. For the week, the currency was down 0.4%
GBPNZD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in tomorrow's trading session we are monitoring GBPNZD for a selling opportunity around 2.17 zone, GBPNZD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 2.17 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BANKNIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 04-Nov-2024Intro for Previous Day's Chart Pattern:
In the last two trading session, Bank Nifty displayed a mixed trend with a bounce off the support levels, suggesting buying interest from lower zones. Key resistance levels emerged near the higher range, where sellers maintained pressure. As per the chart, Yellow indicates a potential Sideways trend, Green shows a Bullish trend, and Red highlights a Bearish trend.
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Trading Plan for 04-Nov-2024:
Opening Scenarios:
Gap Up Opening (200+ points):
If Bank Nifty opens with a significant gap up around 52,191 or higher:
- Watch for resistance near 52,191 (marked as “Last Resistance for Intraday”). A strong breakout above this level may provide momentum for further upside.
- If the price holds above 52,129, consider initiating long positions, but be cautious of quick pullbacks near 52,483, the higher resistance zone.
- If resistance holds, wait for confirmation before shorting, as the price may consolidate or pull back slightly to retest lower support levels.
Flat Opening:
If Bank Nifty opens flat around 51,675:
- Focus on the immediate resistance level of 51,834. A decisive break above this level can push prices toward the 52,000+ range.
- If prices struggle to breach 51,834, consider waiting for a dip towards 51,480, which is the “Opening Support for Buyers,” to enter long positions.
- For intraday shorts, wait for bearish confirmation near 51,834 before targeting lower levels, particularly if the price heads toward the 51,366 support area.
Gap Down Opening (200+ points):
If Bank Nifty opens with a gap down near 51,366 or lower:
- Observe the support zone around 51,366 and 51,008. If the price stabilizes in this range, it could be a good entry for long trades with a target towards 51,604.
- If 51,008 (Last Intraday Support) is breached, further downside could follow, potentially dragging the index down to the 50,831 level.
- Look for confirmation of strength or weakness before entering positions, as gap-down openings may lead to volatile price action.
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Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
- Use tight stop-losses in the volatile market conditions post-Diwali to avoid sharp losses.
- Avoid over-leveraging. Consider position sizing that aligns with your risk tolerance, especially near key support and resistance levels.
- Monitor option premiums closely, as high volatility can lead to rapid premium decay.
- In case of significant volatility, consider exiting options positions early to preserve gains or limit losses.
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Summary and Conclusion:
The 04-Nov-2024 session holds potential for a continuation of recent trends, with key resistance and support levels in focus. Look for clear breakouts above resistance or signs of support holding to confirm directional bias. Sideways movement within key zones may indicate consolidation, while breaks beyond these zones may drive a more directional move.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is shared for educational purposes. Please conduct your analysis or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 04-Nov-2024Intro for Previous Day's Chart Pattern:
In the previous two session, Nifty demonstrated a balanced movement with multiple attempts to break the support and resistance zones, suggesting potential consolidation. The chart highlights key areas where demand and supply forces are likely to react. Yellow trend indicates Sideways movement, Green trend shows a Bullish trend, and Red represents a Bearish trend.
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Trading Plan for 04-Nov-2024:
Opening Scenarios:
Gap Up Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens with a significant gap up around 24,489 or higher:
- Watch for resistance near the ChCoCh Zone (Change of Character) at 24,489-24,533. If Nifty sustains above 24,533, it could indicate strong bullish momentum towards the 24,616 zone, marked as the “Last Intraday Resistance.”
- In case of a rejection from 24,489, wait for confirmation before initiating short trades, as prices may retest lower support levels.
- For conservative traders, it’s advisable to wait for a retracement back toward 24,286-24,265 levels before considering long entries.
Flat Opening:
If Nifty opens flat around 24,300:
- Focus on the immediate support level at 24,286. A successful defense of this support could trigger a bounce towards the 24,489-24,533 resistance area.
- If prices struggle to break through 24,286, look for opportunities to enter long trades near the “No Trading Zone” at 24,163.
- For intraday shorts, wait for bearish signals near 24,533 or if Nifty falls below 24,265, targeting the lower support at 24,020.
Gap Down Opening (100+ points):
If Nifty opens with a gap down around 24,163 or lower:
- Monitor the support levels at 24,020 and 23,958. These zones represent “Last Buyer’s Support for Intraday.” A break below 23,958 may trigger further downside pressure towards lower levels.
- If 24,020 holds, it could offer a buying opportunity with a potential target toward 24,286.
- For intraday trades, be cautious of volatility and await clear price action before entering positions, especially in gap-down scenarios.
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Risk Management Tips for Options Trading:
- Limit your position sizes and keep a strict stop-loss in volatile conditions, especially post-Diwali.
- Monitor implied volatility as it can affect options premium significantly during high volatility sessions.
- Avoid chasing options trades if premiums have already inflated substantially post-market opening.
- Stay cautious around key levels to avoid whipsaws and consider taking partial exits at defined target levels to lock in profits.
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Summary and Conclusion:
The 04-Nov-2024 session may witness reactions at critical support and resistance zones, presenting opportunities for both intraday and swing traders. Wait for a clear break of levels to confirm direction. Sideways consolidation could occur near the mid-range, so be prepared for both trend-following and range-bound strategies.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This trading plan is shared purely for educational purposes. Please conduct your analysis or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
BTC ANALYSIS🔮 #BTC Analysis 💰💰
🌟🚀In 4hr chart we can see a formation "Rising Wedge Pattern in #BTC. Also there is a breakdown of the pattern. We would see a small retest towards it's crucial support zone and then we could expect a reversal
🔖 Current Price: $67610
⁉️ What to do?
- We have marked some crucial levels in the chart. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits in #BTC. 🚀💸
#BTC #Cryptocurrency #DYOR #PotentialBreakout
Viewpoint on wires and cables stock #PARACABLESHere's a concise description you could use on TradingView for the Indian stock "PARACABLES":
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PARACABLES
Paracables (PARACABLES) is a prominent player in India's electrical and telecommunication cables industry. Known for its strong presence across power, telecom, and industrial sectors, Paracables manufactures and distributes a wide range of high-quality cables, including fiber optic, power, and control cables. The company has a reputation for reliable products and innovation in cable technology, catering to infrastructure projects, commercial applications, and various industries. Paracables is committed to sustainable growth and technological advancements, making it a noteworthy stock for investors interested in India's expanding infrastructure and energy markets.
Chart view on proper support and resistance and how the price action may act in coming sessions for the stock.
Cheers NSE:PARACABLES
EURUSD - Trade IdeaHi guys! The EU is in an uptrend on the daily timeframe, and other confirmations, such as a double bottom and the third touch of a trendline, indicate bullish pressure for the coming week. I would like to enter a buy trade at the key level of 1.08200, as well as at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
Please do your own analysis before taking any trades.
Buy limit @ 1.08200
SL - 1.07800 (40Pips)
TP1 - 1.08600 (40Pips)
Final TP - 1.09200 (100Pips)
AAVE LONG IDEA - AAVE Coin Swing Long OpportunityAAVE is a coin I monitored closely during Summer 2024. While most altcoins were making new lows, AAVE was accumulating and showed resilience, which suggested to me that it might outperform others in the 2024-2025 altcoin bull season.
Technical Analysis: Price accumulated within the monthly demand zone throughout Summer 2024. It finally took off, breaking the weekly structure and creating strong bullish momentum on the weekly and daily charts.
Currently, price is retracing to the weekly demand zone responsible for the structural break, which is also supported by the monthly demand. This level appears strong to me.
I anticipate a slight retracement to grab daily swing liquidity before taking off from that area, which aligns with the Fibonacci golden entry level, adding further confidence.
I’ll be watching for LTF confirmations to enter the trade.