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Beyond Technical Analysis

COLLECTING CONFLUENCE across multiple timeframes is your job!!!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!! www.tradingview.com
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Simply-Forex
Bitcoin crash back to $74,000I hope the chart is self explanatory as don't want to make this long. I added some trendlines for the visual learners. Bitcoin did not meets its monthly correction target of $74000, we pump right before...Its not very wise to buy randomly- You want to buy at a key level for higher probability...If the bull run ought to continue. Don't you think for such a big move its more likely to react from important key levels where most the demand is waiting? 2ndly the weekly tf is still bearish. We flipped bullish on daily but price is high and struggling to clear 85k. 4hr already flipped back bearish. Next point is that there is still a lot of uncertainty around tariffs, while market is not reacting to tariffs news as strongly as it did before its still factor of uncertainty. An important factor Next point. In yesterdays Speech by Jerome powell he clearly stated that inflation likely to rise due to tariffs he also clearly stated they not ready to jump in and 'save the stock market' And he said they not looking to make any adjustments to interest rates at the moment. They still playing it cautious-waiting on more data. For me the likely bottom signal when it comes to fundamental will be the lowering of interest rates. On the bullish side, gold been making ATHs on a regular now and many are starting to speculate that bitcoin is next...that's a possibility but so far we haven't seen any strong sign of that narrative playing out in the chart. I think this is 1 final trap before the actual continuation of the bull-run. For invalidation -I would like to see a very clear breakout out on the day and weekly closing above 89k with volume confirmation. I called bitcoin top from December of last year with target of $74000. And its still in effect. Now, let's see if am right again. I believe I am.
Short
by Filnft
1
Can AI Forge America's Next Shield?Palantir Technologies finds itself strategically positioned at the forefront of a potentially transformative U.S. defense initiative, the "Golden Dome" missile defense system. As a crucial partner in a consortium reportedly led by SpaceX and including Anduril Industries, Palantir is a leading contender for significant involvement in this multi-billion-dollar project. Golden Dome aims to establish a next-generation, networked shield against advanced missile threats, emphasizing rapid development and integration of space-based sensors and diverse defensive capabilities, moving beyond traditional procurement timelines. Within this ambitious framework, Palantir's role leverages its core expertise in AI and large-scale data analytics. The company is anticipated to provide the essential software platform required to process and interpret data from potentially hundreds or thousands of tracking satellites, creating real-time situational awareness and enabling coordinated responses across the complex defense network. This involvement could also benefit from innovative procurement approaches, such as SpaceX's proposed subscription model, potentially securing stable, long-term revenue streams for Palantir. Recent successes underscore Palantir's readiness for such a demanding role. The rapid adoption of its Maven Smart System by NATO validates its AI capabilities in high-stakes military environments, while its partnership with Vatn Systems demonstrates the utility of its platform in scaling and modernizing defense manufacturing. Securing a key position in the Golden Dome would represent a major strategic victory, solidifying Palantir's ascent as a disruptive force in the defense technology sector and signaling significant growth potential as it helps shape the future of national security.
NASDAQ:PLTRLong
by UDIS_View
Behind the Curtain: Bitcoin’s Surprising Macro Triggers1. Introduction Bitcoin Futures (BTC), once viewed as a niche or speculative product, have now entered the macroeconomic spotlight. Traded on the CME and embraced by institutions through ETF exposure, BTC Futures reflect not only digital asset sentiment—but also evolving reactions to traditional economic forces. While many traders still associate Bitcoin with crypto-native catalysts, machine learning reveals a different story. Today, BTC responds dynamically to macro indicators like Treasury yields, labor data, and liquidity trends. In this article, we apply a Random Forest Regressor to historical data to uncover the top economic signals impacting Bitcoin Futures returns across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes—some of which may surprise even seasoned macro traders. 2. Understanding Bitcoin Futures Contracts Bitcoin Futures provide institutional-grade access to BTC price movements—with efficient clearing and capital flexibility. o Standard BTC Futures (BTC): Tick Size: $5 per tick = $25 per tick per contract Initial Margin: ≈ $102,000 (subject to volatility) o Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT): Contract Size: 1/50th the BTC size Tick Size: $5 = $0.50 per tick per contract Initial Margin: ≈ $2,000 BTC and MBT trade nearly 24 hours per day, five days a week, offering deep liquidity and expanding participation across hedge funds, asset managers, and active retail traders. 3. Daily Timeframe: Short-Term Macro Sensitivity Bitcoin’s volatility makes it highly reactive to daily data surprises, especially those affecting liquidity and rates. Velocity of Money (M2): This lesser-watched indicator captures how quickly money circulates. Rising velocity can signal renewed risk-taking, often leading to short-term BTC movements. A declining M2 velocity implies tightening conditions, potentially pressuring BTC as risk appetite contracts. 10-Year Treasury Yield: One of the most sensitive intraday indicators for BTC. Yield spikes make holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin potentially less attractive. Declining yields could signal easing financial conditions, inviting capital back into crypto. Labor Force Participation Rate: While not a headline number, sudden shifts in labor force data can affect consumer confidence and policy tone—especially if they suggest a weakening economy. Bitcoin could react positively when data implies future easing. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Labor-Driven Market Reactions As BTC increasingly correlates with traditional markets, weekly economic data—especially related to labor—has become a mid-term directional driver. Initial Jobless Claims: Spikes in this metric can indicate rising economic stress. BTC could react defensively to rising claims, but may rally on drops, especially when seen as signs of stability returning. ISM Manufacturing Employment: This metric reflects hiring strength in the manufacturing sector. Slowing employment growth here could correlate with broader economic softening—something BTC traders can track as part of their risk sentiment gauge. Continuing Jobless Claims: Tracks the persistence of unemployment. Sustained increases can shake risk markets and pull BTC lower, while ongoing declines suggest an improving outlook, which could help BTC resume upward movement. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Macro Structural Themes Institutional positioning in Bitcoin increasingly aligns with high-impact monthly data. These indicators help shape longer-term views on liquidity, rate policy, and capital allocation: Unemployment Rate: A rising unemployment rate could shift market expectations toward a more accommodative monetary policy. Bitcoin, often viewed as a hedge against fiat debasement and monetary easing, can benefit from this shift. In contrast, a low and steady unemployment rate may pressure BTC as it reinforces the case for higher interest rates. 10-Year Treasury Yield (again): On a monthly basis, this repeats and become a cornerstone macro theme. Initial Jobless Claims (again): Rather than individual weekly prints, the broader trend reveals structural shifts in the labor market. 6. Style-Based Strategy Insights Bitcoin traders often span a wide range of styles—from short-term volatility hunters to long-duration macro allocators. Aligning indicator focus by style is essential: o Day Traders Zero in on M2 velocity and 10-Year Yield to time intraday reversals or continuation setups. Quick pivots in bond yields or liquidity metrics could coincide with BTC spikes. o Swing Traders Use Initial Jobless Claims and ISM Employment trends to track momentum for 3–10 day moves. Weekly data may help catch directional shifts before they appear in price charts. o Position Traders Monitor macro structure via Unemployment Rate, 10Y Yield, and Initial Claims. These traders align portfolios based on broader economic trends, often holding exposure through cycles. 7. Risk Management Commentary Bitcoin Futures demand tactical risk management: Use Micro BTC Contracts (MBT) to scale in or out of trades precisely. Expect volatility around macro data releases—set wider stops with volatility-adjusted sizing. Avoid over-positioning near major Fed meetings, CPI prints, or labor reports. Unlike legacy markets, BTC can make multi-percent intraday moves. A robust risk plan isn’t optional—it’s survival. 8. Conclusion Bitcoin has matured into a macro-responsive asset. What once moved on hype now responds to the pulse of the global economy. From M2 liquidity flows and interest rate expectations, to labor market stability, BTC Futures reflect institutional sentiment shaped by data. BTC’s role in the modern portfolio is still evolving. But one thing is clear: macro matters. And those who understand which indicators truly move Bitcoin can trade with more confidence and precision. Stay tuned for the next edition of the "Behind the Curtain" series as we decode the economic machinery behind another CME futures product. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:BTC1!Education
by traddictiv
The Brightest Metal Right NowGold isn’t just shining, it’s on fire, burning through resistance levels as investors seek shelter from global chaos. Figure 1: Gold Prices Climbing to New Highs Gold surged past $3,000 per ounce this March, setting 16 record highs this year alone. While it took more than a decade for gold to gain 1,000 points previously, this time it took less than two years. Figure 2: Correction in the Equities and Cryptocurrencies In stark contrast, the S&P 500 has dropped 10% since its February peak, marking its first correction since 2023. Bitcoin has also plunged to $81,000, a 25% decline since U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The AI-driven momentum that propelled tech stocks and the broader equity market higher in 2024 appears to have faded. Figure 3: Historical Reactions to Crisis The correction in equities and crypto stands in sharp contrast to gold’s rally—an outcome that should come as no surprise given gold’s reputation as a safe-haven asset. Historically, financial crises and major market pullbacks have consistently triggered capital flows into gold as investors seek refuge from economic uncertainty. This time, gold’s outperformance is driven by a “perfect storm” of prolonged geopolitical tensions, escalating trade disputes, political uncertainty under Trump’s second term, and a weakening U.S. dollar. The CNN Business Fear & Greed Index, a widely used measure of market sentiment, has remained in the “fear” and “extreme fear” zones. This stems largely from Trump’s protectionist policies, which have sparked swift retaliation from U.S. trading partners. With new tariff headlines surfacing almost daily, the future of economic policy and inflation has become increasingly uncertain, injecting heightened volatility into global markets. This has, in turn, strengthened gold’s appeal as a hedge against instability. Figure 4: Gold’s Demand is not Limited to Investors According to the World Gold Council, investment demand for gold doubled year-over-year in 2024. However, central banks have been the real drivers of demand, purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years; accounting for 21% of global demand in 2024. The rising U.S. budget deficit and Trump’s "America First" policies have created additional risks for central banks holding large reserves of U.S. Treasuries. The ongoing tariff war not only undermines confidence in the U.S. as a reliable trade partner but also raises concerns about the U.S. dollar’s long-term stability as a safe-haven asset. This has accelerated the de-dollarization process, prompting many central banks to stockpile gold as a hedge against dollar exposure. Unlike investors who may hesitate to buy gold at record highs, central banks operate based on mandates, making them less price-sensitive. They are willing to continue accumulating gold at elevated levels, reinforcing sustained demand for the precious metal. Figure 5: A Weakening Dollar Since most gold futures contracts are denominated in U.S. dollars, a weaker dollar makes gold relatively cheaper for non-U.S. buyers, supporting its price. This negative correlation between the two assets has been a key driver of gold’s recent surge. The Trump administration has long argued that the U.S. dollar’s global dominance has kept it too strong for too long, hurting American manufacturers and contributing to deindustrialization. Further, a strong dollar reduces the price competitiveness of U.S. exports and has widened the trade deficit, leading the administration to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. While the Fed maintains its independence and data-driven approach, inflation trends continue to justify further easing. The market has already priced in three quarter-point rate cuts for this year, with expectations that the first cut could come as early as June. Gaining Access to Gold Historically, the London over-the-counter (OTC) market, operated by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), has been the largest gold trading center. Traders use the LBMA gold price as the global benchmark for gold transactions, including central bank purchases. On the other hand, the futures market is the preferred choice for hedge funds, bullion dealers, refineries, and mints to hedge against price fluctuations. Retail investors also typically gain exposure to gold through futures contracts, most commonly via the COMEX gold futures market. However, executing arbitrage strategies between the OTC and futures markets is capital-intensive and logistically challenging. Traditional arbitrage requires buying physical gold in the LBMA market at a lower price while simultaneously selling COMEX futures at a higher price. This involves storing, insuring, and shipping gold to COMEX-approved vaults, making it difficult to determine the fair value of the spread. Figure 6: B3 Gold Futures Contract A more accessible alternative is emerging: Brazil’s B3 Exchange will soon list a new gold futures contract referencing the LBMA gold price. This new contract offers several advantages: Easier arbitrage execution: Traders can capitalize on price discrepancies between the B3 contract and COMEX futures. Lower capital requirements: The contract size is just one troy ounce, 1/100th of the standard COMEX contract, allowing for greater flexibility in position sizing and risk management. Financial settlement: Both the B3 and COMEX one-ounce contracts are cash-settled, eliminating the logistical challenges of physical delivery. Putting into Practice Case Study 1: Arbitrage Strategy Figure 7: Current Available Gold Futures A comparison of the existing gold futures contracts highlights key differences in specifications, including fineness, contract size, and settlement methods. While these variations cater to the diverse needs of hedgers managing different gold inventories, they pose challenges for traders looking to establish arbitrage strategies due to mismatches in contract structures. The introduction of B3’s new gold futures contract addresses these limitations by aligning closely with the COMEX 1-ounce gold contract. This structural similarity simplifies the process of determining fair value in spread pricing, making arbitrage strategies more feasible. The primary distinction between the two lies in their price settlement methods, which, interestingly, also forms the basis of arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot prices. Additionally, traders can now take advantage of price discrepancies between the two LBMA daily fixing prices by utilizing the B3 Gold and TFEX Gold Online futures contracts. This expands the range of arbitrage opportunities and enhances market efficiency for gold traders. Case Study 2: Directional Strategy By considering all the factors – gold’s safe-haven appeal, geopolitical tensions, central banks accumulation, and a weakening dollar – we believe that this is not the end of the gold rally. An investor looking to express a bullish view on gold could do so by buying the B3 one-ounce futures contract, gaining exposure to gold’s price movements in a more accessible and cost-effective manner. Conclusion As global uncertainties mount, gold’s resilience remains undeniable. Whether as a hedge against inflation, a refuge from geopolitical turmoil, or a tool for strategic trading, gold continues to prove its value in times of crisis. With central banks stockpiling at record levels, the metal’s rally may still have room to run. For investors navigating today’s volatile landscape, gold is not just a safe-haven, it’s a strategic asset poised for continued strength. It is extremely timely to have new trading instruments like B3’s gold futures providing more accessible opportunities for investors. For traders looking to enhance liquidity and capitalize on bid-ask spread, B3 also offers a market-making program. Interested participants can reach out to the exchange for further details.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by inspirante
Decoding NIFTYDear Traders, I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavours and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift. Preliminary Analysis Overview: The downtrend from all-time highs has reached approximately 65% of its progression. The recent upward surge is somewhat concerning due to concerns about a new trend or a correction within a correction in a larger degree (downtrend). Let us discuss the key points to distinguish between these two scenarios: The second leg of the downtrend is experiencing a correction, having completed approximately 89/90 days (which reinforces the interim trend’s completion). The current correction is progressing rapidly, exhibiting limited sub-waves, which is typically not a characteristic of a motive wave (especially at the beginning of a trend). The accompanying chart illustrates this point. Let us elucidate the reasons behind this assertion: Reason I: As a staunch believer and ardent follower of Master WDG , the significance of time cannot be disregarded. The primary downtrend commenced on September 27, 2024, and is poised to encounter a pivotal juncture, namely 180 days from its commencement on March 25, 2025 (Tuesday). This date also coincides with a cross-over with the Fibonacci value of 21 from March 4, 2025, where the interim correction commenced (21,964.60). The 180D is a component of both the tetragram and the hexagram, and it also represents the midway point of a complete circle (360). There is also another weird correlation, 4th MAR’25 & 25th MAR’25 both falls on Tuesday marking initiation & termination, the same day. Reason II: The geometric patterns of preceding and ongoing movements further support this analysis. Analyzed both on a daily and weekly basis. The correction responded favorably to both Fibonacci retracements and trendlines. Upcoming resistance levels include: RI: 23,590~23,600 RII:23,653 (23.6% of the downtrend) RIII: 23,807 The previous support level is acting as a crucial resistance. I also observe that there will not be a positive close in 3M charts. Reference: Important Dates to Remember: As suggested, March 25, 2025, marks a significant juncture in the overall trend. This is pure technical based analysis & does not involve any economic data releases other factors. ** Final Verdict: ** The market is anticipated to conclude its final leg of the downtrend, commencing from this Tuesday. However, the duration of this leg can range from 1 to 2 months. I have identified several crucial dates for monitoring the upcoming trend. Stay informed! **Strategy:** Given the prevailing market conditions, adopting a bearish stance appears prudent. Any sell positions executed after 23,550 will yield positive returns. While it may seem counterintuitive to deviate from the prevailing trend, I am merely adhering to the established rules (without expressing any personal sentiment). However, it is inherently risky. Therefore, it is imperative to implement robust risk management strategies during such high-risk trades that are significantly influencing the market. Additionally, please exercise caution regarding option buying. The low volatility environment is concerning, but it is anticipated to normalize as the downtrend progresses. Fellow Traders, The creation of this valuable analytical resource has required countless hours of dedication and effort. If you find it useful, I humbly request your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be provided via this post, new posts, and through minds). Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article. Wishing you profitable and fulfilling trading endeavors! Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must emphasize that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is crucial for you to conduct your own research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial objectives and risk tolerance.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
A Broader Market Review...As we have all seen within the last month or so, the U.S. equity markets have been getting the worst ass whooping since 2020. And as much as we'd like to forget that absolute disaster, it does bring to thought the idea of buying general market funds (such as AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , or AMEX:DIA ) to gain a nice entry into the next bull market, whenever that may be. However, not everything is all smooth sailing. The unfortunate part of this market downturn is that no amount of technical astrology fortune-telling analysis could have predicted the market's reaction to the tariffs being levied on foreign nations. So we need to put our big-boy pants on and look at the market as if it isn't some automatic wealth generating pattern that points north-east all day long. Let's start with the tariffs. Firstly, we know there has been a 90 day pause on all conforming countries most notably leaving out China. It's not like that's anything special, just almost all our crap is made there. Unfortunately, we are observing what may be the greatest economic error of our lifetimes. For those who are lost, foreign governments DO NOT pay for the tariffs in the way we are told. The U.S. Government levies the tariffs on the exporter (Chinese companies in this case), who then pass it on to the buyer of the goods (think Walmart, Target, Apple, etc.), who then pass those charges onto YOU... Enjoy! So with an attempt at a full blown trade war, which the U.S. cannot win nor even has the industrial strength or infrastructure to compete, we can expect the markets to completely do a Bald Eagle courtship nosedive into new lows as observed a few weeks ago. But what will the Creature from Jekyll Island think of this? Well miraculously, Fed chairman Jerome Powell claimed that the Fed will NOT allow the tariffs to exacerbate inflation into new highs. Get that, the Federal Reserve will not allow economic movements that raise prices on an importing nation ( that's the United States by the way), to raise prices anymore. While he's at it, how about we just get no inflation ever since it's just that simple? And as if that wasn't enough, Donald Trump called for Jerome Powell to lower rates for some reason, saying that Powell was too late on his economic movement at the Fed. As it turns out, our plan for strengthening the economy is to.... weaken the dollar? Not sure why that's the case but at least we will be able to borrow more money at a cheaper price, as if the United States doesn't already have a debt problem. The Fed lowering rates would of course open the possibility of getting yet another wave of quantitative easing which will most likely be observed further down the road. Another round of QE, along with rate cuts, will of course send the equity markets to new highs on top of a weaker dollar. Speaking of a weaker dollar, we should lastly talk about the TVC:DXY which measures the comparative strength of the U.S. Dollar to other currencies. As it turns out in this scenario, the dollar is getting weaker and weaker every day, meaning that people are running from U.S. Debt like it's the plague. If we were going to get a weaker dollar, at least could we have a higher market to offset our inevitable losses? I guess not... Here is the TVC:DXY 1D looking back into late 2024. Lastly for what to expect out of the market. If the trade situation will all the tariffs and this neo-cold war cool down, we might see some tariff pauses or lowering which will of course fire the market into new highs. However, if the situation doesn't cool, our debt yields rise, the market is going to go south faster than a Canadian in December. On a positive note, macroeconomic events move slowly, so it should be clear when a turnaround is coming...
SP:SPX
by addatheriver0808
Do or die for gbpusd??I’m closely watching gbpusd once it reaches these highs I see no means for any trades .. keeping in mind it’s also a bank holiday for Europe I’d like to wait and see what happens at this 1.34319 point of reaction along with a demand zone . If I see a nice close on a daily candle or any bearish formation ( besides the weekly double top) I’d consider sells .. a break above that and the 1.35 psychological level , I’d like to believe the bulls are still in control .. nevertheless , this point seems to hold weight . We’ll just wait and see 😎
by JustVibe305
USDJPY Outlook – Bearish Continuation or Bullish Reversal??In this analysis, I'm breaking down the USDJPY structure starting from the 4H to identify the overall market direction (Bearish/Sells), then zooming into the 1H to fine-tune potential trade setups. On the 4H timeframe, we’re assessing whether the recent bearish momentum is likely to continue or if price action is showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The LOW created at 141.800 level is our first target IF we continue to sell as its creating that LowerLow. IF price closes bullish above 142.500, I will switch sides and look for potential buys. On the 1H timeframe, I’m watching for a bullish liquidity sweep below141.888, followed by a clear break of structure to the upside on the 15m or 1H for more confirmation. That would indicate smart money accumulation and a potential shift in market sentiment—giving me confirmation to start looking for long setups. 🚀 Give me a boost and follow for upcoming $niper entries this week! 🦇🔥 CMCMARKETS:USDJPY
Long
by nonstopkev888
2
BTCUSDT – Liquidity Clustered, Volume Lying, and a Trap Brewing BTCUSDT – Liquidity Clustered, Volume Lying, and a Trap Brewing (April 21, 2025) by Pôncio Pacífico – Institutional flow, obscene leverage, zero mercy 📍 Market Context Bitcoin is trapped in a low-volatility chop range between $84.2K and $85.8K. Open Interest is rising while price stays flat = someone is building a position… and someone else is about to be slaughtered. The Asian market is open. So is the manipulation season. 🔎 Key Zones Visible POC: $85.5K – the battlefield of confused traders. Key Resistance: $86.3K – liquidation zone for overconfident shorters. Key Support: $83.8K – emotional refuge of poorly placed longs. 🧠 Institutional Tools (no MACD tourist traps): Delta: Positive, but not supported by real volume = spoofing or passive absorption. Open Interest: Rising during consolidation = trap loading. Bookmap: Hidden sell blocks above = fake breakout incoming. 📉 Trading Plan (2 Scenarios) Scenario A – Squeeze & Dump (most likely) → Quick push to $86.2K–$86.4K to wipe out shorts → Hard reversal targeting $84.7K and $83.8K → Entry: Short @ $86.200 → SL: $86.600 → TP1: $84.700 / TP2: $83.800 Scenario B – Bear Trap with V-Recovery → Fake breakdown to $83.800 to liquidate longs → Snapback reversal into $85.5K+ → Entry: Long @ $83.800 → SL: $83.400 → TP1: $85.500 / TP2: $86.200 🧾 Conclusion BTC is about to explode. Delta and OI scream manipulation. If you’re trading without heatmaps or order flow, you’re funding a market maker’s new yacht. This is not a battle between bulls and bears. It’s between those who read the market... and those who guess it.
by NunoSid
Next Volatility Period: Around April 25-29 Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1W chart) The key is whether it can receive support near the OBV Line indicator (84349.94) on the 1M chart and rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart. - (1D chart) (Movement in a wide range) If you look at the lines drawn with multiple lines, you can see that it is currently moving sideways within the section that the fingers are pointing to. It may seem a bit complicated, but the key is in which direction the finger points out. (Narrow range movement) After the volatility period of around April 14-17, there is a possibility that the short-term trend will change. The next volatility period is expected to be around April 25-29 (up to April 24-30). Therefore, the point of interest is whether it will fall below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart and show a downward trend, or rise above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and show an upward trend. In other words, you need to look at whether it will rise along the trend line (2) or fall along the trend line (4). - As I said before, if the StochRSI indicator is above 50, it is better to focus on finding a selling point. The reason is that even if it rises, the upward trend is likely to be limited. If the trading volume increases explosively when it shows support at a certain support and resistance point or section, it is possible that it will lead to a large increase, but it is a rare case, so it is better to refrain from expecting it. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful transaction. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Here is an explanation of the big picture. I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC. I rewrote it to update the previous chart while touching the Fibonacci ratio section of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10). (Previous BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have maintained an upward trend following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the upward trend is expected to continue until 2025. - (Current BTCUSD 12M chart) Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15). It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54). (BTCUSDT 12M chart) Based on the BTCUSDT chart, I think it is around 42283.58. - I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart. The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges. In other words, it seems likely that they will act as volume profile ranges. Therefore, in order to break through these ranges upward, I think the point to watch is whether they can receive support and rise near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28). Therefore, the maximum rising range in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) range. In order to do that, we need to see if it is supported and rises near 2.618 (134018.28). If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but based on the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%. Therefore, if it starts to fall near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54). I will explain more details when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
ES UpdateNot many of my followers trade futures, but in case I don't have time to post an update before work tomorrow: 1) Another open gap down. I don't think it fills until RSI hits oversold and we get a bounce. 2) Dollar index broke support, but wouldn't surprise me if it did a backtest (maybe) 3) Gold trying to "break out" yet again, but a dollar backtest will look like another failed breakout (maybe) 4) Lots of earnings this week including TSLA Tues. I established a long position in gold, but I intend to hold it for a while. Not my usual short term trade. No desire to go long on stocks during earnings season when every company is going to be talking about tariff impacts.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
10