GOLD always listens you just need to listen back.Our analysis on the short term selling is on point already at 60 pips profit in 10mins..with ZERO DrawDown.
1:6rr DONE
LOADING
Beyond Technical Analysis
LOOKING AT STRONG BUYif you look back a couple of weeks ago, the week of the 13 of March. US100 was sitting at a low price of 19143. This price was never swept the following week. US100 pushed further up until it reached its maximum price of 20322 for the last two weeks. Which was also support on 15 November 2024. Signaled a downward signaled a momentum, which eventually led to 1943 being swept by this downward movement (normally this would take 1 week any weekly high/low to be swiped). Now comes the case of the weekly high 20322(27/03/2025). Current price is pushing towards this price. However there is resistance level at 19800, which needs to be broken before we go for the weekly high(which is our TP).
PSA x2 - Be Patient! Long term buying opportunities will come!Just not yet in my humble opinion. Don't play the "but we've dropped so much already we need to go up again before dropping more" card. That is the easiest way to lose your pants.
Yes, the market might rebound a bit before a further leg lower - that's just how the market and supply and demand works - but don't start buying up every equity that's down 10-20% just because you feel like it's dropped so much. Same thing goes for crypto of course - we have MORE ROOM to the downside! Plenty of it!
Happy Trading :)
Silver Breakdown: Rising Wedge Bearish Move Towards Target1. Chart Overview
This 4-hour (H4) chart of Silver (XAG/USD) shows a clear Rising Wedge Pattern, a bearish technical formation. The price action recently broke below the lower support trendline, confirming a downside move. Several key levels, indicators, and trading strategies can be derived from this setup.
2. Identified Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge (Bearish Reversal)
A Rising Wedge is a pattern that forms when price consolidates between two upward-sloping trendlines, with the support line rising at a steeper angle than the resistance line. This pattern is considered bearish because it signals weakening buying pressure and an impending breakdown.
Uptrend Formation: The price had been moving within a wedge, forming higher highs and higher lows.
Volume Considerations: A wedge breakout is often accompanied by increasing volume, further confirming the trend shift.
Breakout Confirmation: The price has decisively broken below the lower boundary of the wedge, indicating that sellers are taking control.
3. Key Technical Levels & Trading Strategy
Resistance Level (Rejection Zone) – $34.00 - $34.50
The upper boundary of the rising wedge acted as strong resistance.
Multiple price rejections confirm sellers' dominance in this area.
Any future retest of this level may provide a new opportunity for short entries.
Support Level (Broken & Retested) – $32.50 - $32.80
This zone previously acted as strong support, preventing price from falling lower.
Now that price has broken this support level, it could act as resistance if a retest occurs.
A confirmed rejection here will further validate the bearish outlook.
Stop Loss Placement – $34.16
A logical stop-loss placement is slightly above the previous swing high and resistance area.
If price moves above this level, it would indicate that the breakdown has failed, invalidating the bearish setup.
Bearish Target – $30.76 (Measured Move Projection)
This level is derived from the height of the rising wedge pattern projected downward.
The area around $30.76 aligns with a previous support zone, making it a reasonable target for the current breakdown.
4. Price Action & Future Expectations
Current Market Sentiment: Bearish
The break below the wedge confirms a bearish sentiment.
A slight retracement to the previous support (now resistance) around $32.80 - $33.00 is possible before further downside.
If selling pressure remains strong, Silver is likely to reach the $30.76 target in the coming sessions.
Alternative Scenario: Bullish Recovery
If the price moves back above $34.16, the bearish outlook is invalidated.
A sustained move above this level could indicate a false breakdown and may push Silver toward new highs.
5. Trading Plan Based on This Setup
🔹 Entry Strategy:
Look for a retest of the broken support zone ($32.80 - $33.00) to enter short positions.
A rejection from this level with bearish confirmation (e.g., a bearish engulfing candle) strengthens the trade setup.
🔹 Stop Loss:
Placed above the wedge resistance at $34.16 to protect against false breakouts.
🔹 Take Profit Targets:
First Target: $31.50 (intermediate support level)
Final Target: $30.76 (measured move projection of the wedge)
6. Conclusion
This Rising Wedge Breakdown on Silver’s H4 chart presents a strong bearish trading opportunity with a well-defined risk-reward ratio. The break below key support signals continued downside, with $30.76 as the next major target. However, traders should monitor any retest of the broken support zone to confirm further selling momentum before entering new positions.
THIs Is MY ENTIRE PLAYBOOK RIGHT HERE... The only Thing that Wor So Yeah
... because the theory is " THE HIGHER THE TIME
FRA ME , the S STRONGER the TIMEFRAME"
So... Here's the entire Step by Step process
O. IDENTIFY a HIGHER TIMEFRAME FVG ( ex. WEEK FVG )
1. Wait for price to be at LOWER TIMERAME FVG (ex. DAY FVG )
2. Wait For Price to have a Strong SWEEP ( abnormally long Wicks are preferred ) and CHOCH on 4HR-1HR-15MIN WHILE INSIDE THE DAY FVG.
3. After the CHOCH swing leg has completed, plot FIB, FVG, FRVP and establish your Context Area.
4. ENTER @ Context Area, or validate the context area first. Then enter.
These look like SWING SETUPS ( it is ), so how do I make sure I have at least one trade per day?
Scan the charts and put alarms on DAY FVGS with opposing WEEK FVGS.
Trade only the ones triggering the alarms.
Wait, I think I understand the context area now and its purpose. You don't enter inside the context area ... Here is where you " Sandbox and validate " your hypothesis that "price will pump after hitting the FVG" by making sure that price behaves the way you expect it to behave FIRST ( 1. FVG Sweep 2. CHOCH+ FVG 3. OTE ZONE TAP and RUN ), before You start looking for an entry .
It's easier to understand in programming logic .
IF WEEK FVG < - > DAY FVG EXISTS , THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 10%
IF PRICE STINGS DAY FVG , THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 20%
IF PRICE CREATES CONTEXT AREA, THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 40%
IF PRICE RESPECTS CONTEXT AREA, THEN REVERSAL PROBABILITY 60%
This is the point Where You go to 15min - 5m - 1min and cook up an entry.
OR, Simply enter after a 15min FVG in line with Target / Bias. Just put your SL below Sting point.
You are targeting a weekly FVG, so it's a Swing trade at this point.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 3rd April 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Unemployment Claims
-ISM Services PMI
Analysis:
-Strong bullish momentum after US tariffs being announced
-Looking for retest of the bullish structure
-Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3100
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Short Probably!Hello all. After Hitting Tp at the last setup I think it is time for reversing. I think it is a good level for going short. Stick to your own method for entry, it is just an suggestion. be happy(wink)
Breaking: $PORK Approaching Key Fibonacci Levels for a Breakout PepeFork ($PORK) a memecoin created as a parody to the original CRYPTOCAP:PEPE coin is set to go parabolic amidst breaking out from the 61.5% Fibonacci retracement point, a level holding ground as the support pivot for $PORK.
The asset is trading with moderate momentum as hinted by the RSI at 43. $PORK is nearly approaching the 61.5% Fibonacci point and a bounced from that level would spark a bullish campaign for PepeFork ($PORK).
PepeFork Price Live Data
The live PepeFork price today is $4.75e-8 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $2,431,278 USD. PepeFork is down 5.17% in the last 24 hours, with a live market cap of $18,706,640 USD. It has a circulating supply of 393,690,000,000,000 PORK coins and a max. supply of 420,690,000,000,000 PORK coins.
Breaking: $EOS Surged 20% Today Amidst a Falling Wedge PatternBuilt and integrated in the Binance Smart chain (BSC) NYSE:EOS coin spiked 20% today amidst a falling wedge pattern with technical patterns indicating a second legged up with a 180% surge in sight.
With the RSI at 79 momentum is increasing and the bulls are striving to push this altcoin to the $1 pivot. The asset is already trading above key moving averages, and with the daily candle stick depicting a bullish Harumi pattern, a trend continuation might be imminent. However, there might be short term correction to cool off before picking liquidity up.
What Is EOS Network?
The EOS Network is an open-source blockchain platform that prioritizes high performance, flexibility, security, and developer experience. As a third-generation blockchain platform powered by the EOS virtual machine, EOS has an extensible WebAssembly engine for deterministic execution of near fee-less transactions.
EOS is the market's most scalable, divisible, and programmable digital currency. EOS is a Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS) network where stakeholders have the authority to select node operators. EOS is fully decentralized power doesn't reside in the hands of block miners, but rather all parties involved in the EOS Network.
EOS Price Live Data
The live EOS price today is $0.832481 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $749,481,793 USD. EOS is up 19.40% in the last 24 hours, with a live market cap of $1,295,646,252 USD. It has a circulating supply of 1,556,368,173 EOS coins and a max. supply of 2,100,000,000 EOS coins.
$NASDAQ:TLRY Up in Smoke or Waiting for the Puff and Pump?NASDAQ:TLRY Up in Smoke or Waiting for the Puff and Pump?
Left for Dead or a Sleeper Rocket in the Making? 🚀
Alright, let’s talk about Tilray (TLRY). I know what you’re thinking: this thing’s been taken behind the woodshed, beaten, and then fed through the wood chipper—twice. Technically speaking, it’s been in a brutal downtrend. But here's where it gets interesting...
Since December, I’ve been noticing signs of quiet accumulation. Volume patterns are showing life. This isn’t just random noise... it looks like smart money nibbling while the rest of the market sleeps.
Fundamentally, it's trading at 0.68x sales and a crazy 0.17x price to book. That’s deep value territory... basically priced like it’s going out of business, which it’s not. Cannabis isn’t going anywhere, and when this sector comes back (and it will), I want to already be on the launchpad.
Now imagine a scenario: Trump leans on Musk-style libertarian logic, and pushes for federal legalization to fill the coffers with tax revenue (and their pockets as they and their friends will be ahead of the trend as all politicians at that level are). Boom. You think this thing trades at 65 cents for long? Me neither.
I’m not saying we’re going to $5 next week....but the risk/reward here feels very asymmetrical. Worst case? We chop sideways or retest lows. Best case? We get a face-melter rally that TLRY has shown it's capable of in the past.
This is precisely the kind of chart I look for. Beaten up, forgotten, but technically setting up... and fundamentally undervalued.
Not financial advice. Just sharing my thinking as someone who loves deep contrarian setups.
Can Gold Continue Higher? Last month, I pointed out that Large Speculators started to close out their net-long positions in Gold futures, betting on the possibility of a reversal as they attempted to time the market turn at all-time highs. This behavior continued for several weeks, yet Gold’s price continued its upward rally, leaving many traders scratching their heads. What’s particularly puzzling is the lack of chasing in this rally, especially considering the massive price movement since then. This is particularly surprising because Large Speculators, for the most part, are trend-followers — and right now, the trend in Gold is unmistakably bullish.
When comparing positioning in Gold to Silver, there’s a distinct difference. While Large Speculators initially followed the rally in Silver, continuing to buy as Silver lagged behind Gold, this strategy was much more reactive. Silver’s underperformance relative to Gold made sense, given that Silver is more crowded than Gold — meaning there’s less demand and fewer buyers.
The key takeaway from this analysis is that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report can offer valuable insights into which market presents the better risk/reward trade. In this case, the COT report highlighted Gold as the superior trend to follow, especially for traders looking to capitalize on precious metals amidst all the tariff news and rising market uncertainty. By using the COT, traders can refine their strategies to focus on trends with more significant potential, rather than getting distracted by more volatile, crowded trades.
NCC - NCC LTD (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long PositionNCC - NCC LTD (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {volume & support structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 4.9
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 212.70
Entry limit range ~ 212.50 to 209.50 (Avg. - 211) on April 02, 2025 at 12:53 PM.
1. Target limit ~ 223 (+5.69%; +12 points)
2. Target limit ~ 233 (+10.43%; +22 points)
Stop order limit ~ 206.5 (-2.13%; -4.5 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
USD/JPY Ready to Take Off: Golden Opportunity on 1H!Hi traders! Analyzing USD/JPY on the 1H timeframe, spotting a potential entry:
🔹 Entry: 150.08
🔹 TP: 150.589
🔹 SL: 149.547
USD/JPY is breaking out of a bullish pennant pattern, suggesting a potential upward move. The RSI is holding above 50, indicating bullish momentum building up. If the price sustains above 150.08, we could see a push toward 150.589. Keep your eyes on price action and manage your risk!
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
GBP/JPY showing the Bulls some love !!As i write this down GBP/JPY teases us with a triangle on a 1h timeframe with a break and test... and maybe a confirmation?
195.00 level is also there - giving us extra confirmation
the YEN showed some strength since the year began maybe because of the ongoing Japanese fiscal year ending up in march,
but since we are talking about fiscal years, UK's fiscal year concludes in April ! ( during fiscal year end companies tend to repatriate their offshore capital for several reasons: Tax Optimization, Financial Reporting, Dividend Payments, Debt Servicing, Currency Exchange Considerations, Strategic Investments) - this ensure a increased demand for the specific currency making it raise in value ( supply and demand 101)
so where are we at right now:
- Fundamentals favor the GBP in the near term future ( other fundamentals must be taken into consideration - do some research tell me what you find)
- Technically we see an opportunity to profit for the coming fundamentals even tough is a good chance this setup is not the start line of the race upwards
when it comes to Taking profits the only level that comes into mind is 198.200 (not a guarantee but a possibility)
- Other Technical's
the currency sits above the YTD Anchored VWAP and the march Anchored VWAP for some time now,
in terms of Market Structure we see higher highs on the 4h/Daily and previous highs taken out ( feb high and Jan high) - this an uptrend no doubt
For day traders:
on the lower timeframes we see some head & Shoulders formations gearing up
1min_ chart completed H&S
5m_chart H&S in construction -
and if I'm stretching my luck a bit maybe another H&S on the 15 min
that's all there is to it!
Whatever your trading remember to take the risks into consideration and always do your own analysis before taking a decision !!
I'm still new to sharing ideas on the community - don't start throwing rocks now if your Bearish :D
-Not financial Advice !
Calibrating Trading Indicators for Different MarketsCalibrating Trading Indicators for Different Markets: A Beginner's Guide
(Simple Steps to Adjust RSI , MACD , and Other Tools for Better Results)
Key Idea : Just like you'd tune a guitar differently for rock vs. classical music, trading tools like RSI or MACD need adjustments depending on what you're trading (stocks, crypto, forex) and how it moves. This guide shows you how to tweak these tools using price swings (pivot points) to make them work better for your specific asset.
---
Why "One Size Fits All" Doesn't Work
Most traders use default settings for indicators (like RSI's 14-day period). But these defaults were created for "average " markets. Real markets aren't average!
Example:
- Crypto ( CME:BTC1! ) : Super volatile → Needs faster, more sensitive indicators.
- Blue-Chip Stocks ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) : Less wild swings → Needs slower, smoother indicators.
If you use the same RSI settings for both, you'll get bad signals. Calibration fixes this.
---
The Pivot Point Method for Calibration
One effective approach to calibration is measuring the natural rhythm of price swings between high and low points. Here's how to do it step by step:
Step 1: Find Pivot Points on Your Chart
Pivot points are like "price turning points." Use TradingView's ZigZag indicator (or draw them manually) to spot these swings.
How to Add ZigZag on TradingView :
1. Open your chart.
2. Click "Indicators" → Search " ZigZag " → Select it.
3. Adjust settings (defaults work fine for starters).
The ZigZag will draw lines between significant highs (peaks) and lows (valleys).
---
Step 2: Measure the "Rhythm" of the Market
Count the bars (candles) between pivot points to find the market's natural cycle.
Example :
- If Bitcoin swings from peak to peak every 14 bars on average, its "cycle" is 14 bars.
- If Apple does this every 16 bars, its cycle is 16 bars.
In the picture above, we used the Williams Fractal to identify pivots.
Formula for Indicator Settings :
- RSI Period = Half the average cycle → If cycle = 16 bars → RSI = 8 days.
- MACD Settings : Fast EMA = ¼ cycle, Slow EMA = ½ cycle → Cycle = 16 → Fast EMA = 4, Slow EMA = 8
---
Step 3: Test Your Calibrated Indicators
Backtest on TradingView :
1. Add your indicator (e.g., RSI) with the new settings.
2. Use the Strategy Tester (click "Add to Chart" → " RSI Strategy ") to see if signals improve.
Look For :
- Fewer false signals (e.g., RSI saying "oversold" too early).
- Clearer trends (MACD crossovers matching price moves).
---
Calibrating Popular Indicators (Simple Rules)
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
- Default : 14 days.
- Calibrated : Half the average cycle length.
- Example : Cycle = 16 bars → RSI = 8 days.
Why It Works : Shorter RSI reacts faster to volatile markets (like crypto).
2. MACD
- Default : 12, 26, 9.
- Calibrated :
- Fast EMA = ¼ of cycle.
- Slow EMA = ½ of cycle.
- Signal Line = ⅙ of cycle.
- Example : Cycle = 20 → Fast = 5, Slow = 10, Signal = 3.
Why It Works : Matches the asset's natural momentum shifts.
3. Williams %R
- Default : 14 days.
- Calibrated : Same as RSI (half the cycle).
---
How to Avoid Common Mistakes
Mistake 1 : Overfitting (Making It Too Perfect for the Past)
- Problem : If you calibrate too precisely to old data, it might fail in the future.
- Fix : Test on 2 types of data:
1. Training Data : First 70% of your chart (to calibrate).
2. Testing Data : Last 30% (to check if it still works).
Mistake 2 : Ignoring Market Changes
- Problem : What works today might not work next month.
- Fix : Recheck your settings every 3 months or after big news (e.g., Fed rate hikes).
---
Free Tools to Help (No Coding Needed)
1. TradingView's "Auto-Detect Cycle" Scripts
Search for indicators like "Cycle", "RSI Adaptive" or " Rainbow Adaptive RSI " in TradingView's public library. These automatically calculate cycle lengths (Not tested).
2. Adaptive MACD/RSI Indicators
Try pre-built adaptive indicators like:
- Adaptive MACD : Adjusts itself based on volatility.
- Dynamic Pivot : Uses pivots to set stop-loss and take-profit levels.
---
Building a Simple Pivot Calibration System
Basic ZigZag Calibrator Method :
1. Add ZigZag to your chart.
2. Manually count the bars between 5 recent swings.
3. Calculate the average → Divide by 2 → Use that number for your RSI/MACD.
Example :
- Swings: 12, 14, 16, 10, 8 bars → Average = 12.
- Calibrated RSI = 6 days.
---
Why This Works (Without the Math)
Markets move in waves. By matching your indicator's speed to the wave length, you "surf" the trend instead of fighting it. Research shows adaptive methods like this beat default settings.
The Science Behind It
When you calibrate to an instrument's natural rhythm:
- Oscillators (RSI, %R) catch extremes at the right time
- Trend indicators (MACD) signal changes faster
- Volatility bands (Bollinger Bands) expand and contract appropriately
---
A Step Further: Multi-Timeframe Calibration
For even better results, calibrate across timeframes:
1. Calculate cycles on daily charts for swing trading
2. Calculate cycles on 4-hour charts for day trading
3. Use both calibrated indicators together for confirmation
---
Final Tips for Beginners
1. Start Small : Calibrate one indicator (like RSI) first.
2. Use Free Tools : TradingView has thousands of free scripts to automate calculations.
3. Keep Records : Document what settings work for which assets.
4. Be Patient : Finding the right calibration takes time, but the results are worth it.
Calibration isn't about being perfect—it's about making your tools work better for specific markets . Happy trading!
Crude oil's Strong Return: Exclusive Trading Strategy and LayoutOverall, yesterday's market can be considered as a one-sided upward trend within the day. Both crude oil and gold gave a wonderful performance on the upward path yesterday. Gold reached a record high yesterday, and crude oil didn't show any weakness either, breaking through the $71 mark in one go. Traders who followed John's advice yesterday are believed to have reaped good profits. The data released by the US Energy Information Administration yesterday showed a decrease in production, which further pushed crude oil above $71 and to the current high of $71.8. Every time crude oil is at a crucial juncture and needs to choose a direction, there will be bullish news in the market to support it. This is caused by the excessive instability resulting from the current turbulent international situation, and Trump's fickle policies also lead to the dual nature of the market that makes it prone to fluctuations.
Crude oil reached around $71.8 at its highest point yesterday, and the trend and price levels basically met the expectations. Judging from the current trend of crude oil, there are signs of a continued rebound. The resistance levels above are $72.5, $73.3 and $74 respectively, while the support levels below are $70.9, $70.4 and $69.9 respectively.
USOIL
buy@70-70.5
tp:72-73
I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Trump Tariffs: Gold's Wild Ride & What's NextToday, Trump's policy of reciprocal tariffs has been officially implemented. The gold market, which has been overly hyped, has witnessed the fulfillment of a risk event, and the concentrated closing of long positions has triggered a deep correction. Spot gold prices plummeted from the high of $3,167.71 per ounce in the early Asian trading session. It touched a low of $3,054 per ounce, with an intraday amplitude of over $110, completing the technical action of building a top.
The leading institutional investors have precisely taken advantage of the market psychology of "buying on the news and selling on the fact" and completed the long position layout before the tariff policy was implemented. Their operation method is quite typical: first, they attract retail investors to take over the shares through a pulsed upward pull. Subsequently, they adopt a three-stage washing method of "plunge - consolidation - second plunge", completely breaking the recent upward oscillation pattern in the Asian and European trading sessions. This method is identical to the top formations in history on many occasions, and its purpose is precisely to create panic selling and trap the chips that chased the high prices.
Technically, a clear top signal has emerged in the daily chart of gold. Currently, the decline has exceeded the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the price has fallen below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the medium - term trend may reverse. However, it should be noted that this round of adjustment has not yet completed the complete five - wave structure. In the future, we need to focus on the guidance of tomorrow's non - farm payrolls data on the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies, as well as whether the weekly closing price can confirm the head pattern. John suggests that it's advisable to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. One should get involved only after the trend stabilizes. Pay attention to the resistance levels above at 3118 and 3130, and the support levels below at 3100 and 3085.
I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate for a whole month in a row. If you also need them, please click on the link below the article to obtain them.
Navigating the Range Ahead of Tariffs Announcement📢 News 📢
President Trump is set to announce new tariffs today, April 2, 2025, at 4 p.m. Eastern Time. This initiative, dubbed "Liberation Day," aims to boost U.S. manufacturing by targeting imports like autos, steel, and pharmaceuticals. 📦💊 However, economists warn that these measures could lead to higher consumer costs and disrupt trade relations. 📉💹
This news might influence market sentiment and could have implications for gold trading. Keep an eye on how the market reacts! 📈💰
📊XAUUSD 1H Analysis (Current Situation)
Market Structure:
The market is in a clear bullish trend with strong momentum from the previous sessions.
Recent price action shows consolidation near 3,132, suggesting a potential liquidity build-up.
There is a higher high formation, but rejection from the supply zone around 3,139 - 3,150.
Key Technical Zones & Confluences:
Supply Zone / Potential Sell Area:
3,139 - 3,150: If price reacts with strong rejections here, a potential short opportunity may emerge.
3,165 - 3,182: If price breaks above 3,150, this is the next key resistance area.
Demand Zone / Potential Buy Areas:
3,110 - Strong Rejection Zone: If price pulls back here and finds bullish confirmations (e.g., bullish engulfing, liquidity grab), a long entry could be valid.
3,092 - 3,075 Potential Buy Zone: A deeper retracement into this level could provide a sniper entry opportunity.
🔴 Sell Setup
Entry Zone: $3,133 - $3,135
SL: Above $3,138 (tight protection)
TP1: $3,128 (first reaction)
TP2: $3,117 (liquidity zone)
TP3: $3,103 (full move)
📌 Reasoning:
Mid-range premium pricing (not at extreme highs but still valid)
Multiple rejections in this zone (potential shift in order flow)
Possible short-term retrace before continuation
🔴 Sell Idea
Entry Zone: $3,145 - $3,150
SL: Above $3,153 (small wick safety)
TP1: $3,132 (reaction level)
TP2: $3,128 (stronger demand)
TP3: $3,117 (full imbalance fill)
📌 Reasoning:
Liquidity grab potential above $3,145
Imbalance & order block confluence
Possible rejection from premium supply
🟢 Buy idea
Entry Zone: $3,094 - $3,089
Stop Loss (SL): Below $3,085
Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP1: $3,117
TP2: $3,128
TP3: $3,150
📌 Reasoning:
Unmitigated demand zone
Imbalance around $3,094 suggests a reaction
Strong liquidity pockets nearby
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your own plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
EUR/USD Analysis Ascending Triangle Breakout – Bullish TargetOverview of the Chart:
The chart represents the EUR/USD (Euro to U.S. Dollar) pair on a 1-hour timeframe, showcasing a bullish ascending triangle breakout. The pattern indicates an upward continuation in the trend after a period of consolidation. This analysis will break down the key elements of the chart, the technical structure, and the potential trading strategy.
1. Market Structure & Key Zones
A. Market Curve Area (Early Trend Development)
The price started with a strong bullish trend leading up to the formation of the triangle.
The curved trendline suggests a gradual increase in buying pressure, indicating that the market was preparing for a larger breakout.
B. Resistance and Support Levels
Resistance Level (Red Arrow & Blue Box):
This level acted as a price ceiling where sellers previously dominated.
The market attempted multiple times to break this resistance before successfully breaching it.
Support Level (Green Arrow & Yellow Zone):
The price consistently found buyers at this level, reinforcing a higher low structure.
The rising support line within the triangle indicated strong accumulation by buyers.
2. Chart Pattern: Ascending Triangle Formation
The price action formed an ascending triangle, which is a well-known bullish continuation pattern.
The higher lows (trendline support) indicated buyers were gaining control, gradually pushing the price toward the resistance.
Eventually, the resistance was broken with strong bullish momentum, confirming a valid breakout.
3. Breakout Confirmation & Retest
The breakout above the resistance level came with high volume, indicating strong market participation.
After the breakout, a minor pullback (retest) occurred, confirming previous resistance as new support.
The price surged upward after the retest, validating the bullish trade setup.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
A. Entry Strategy
A trader would enter a buy (long) position after confirming the breakout.
Entry Trigger:
Either at breakout (high-risk, early entry)
Or after a successful retest (safer entry)
B. Stop Loss Placement
A stop loss is placed below the previous support level at 1.07276, ensuring risk is limited in case of a false breakout.
C. Target Projection
The target price is measured using the height of the triangle added to the breakout level.
Based on this calculation, the projected target is around 1.12838.
5. Conclusion & Trading Plan
The EUR/USD pair has executed a clean ascending triangle breakout, signaling further bullish movement.
The trading plan suggests:
✅ Entry: Buy after breakout confirmation or retest.
✅ Stop Loss: Placed below 1.07276 for risk management.
✅ Take Profit: Targeting 1.12838, based on the pattern’s height projection.
This setup presents a high-probability long opportunity in a trending market, with proper risk management to protect against potential reversals.
AUD/USD Trend Before and After Tariff Announcement✍ ✍ ✍ AUD/USD news:
➡️ AUD/USD is struggling to extend its previous day's recovery and remains below the 0.6300 mark early on Wednesday, as markets await U.S. President Trump's tariff announcement later in the day. However, buyers continue to find support from optimism surrounding Chinese stimulus measures and the RBA's cautious stance on policy outlook.
➡️ Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces a challenging task: ongoing trade tensions could drive higher inflation, potentially justifying prolonged rate hikes. However, early signs of a cooling U.S. economy suggests the need for restraint, even as labor market data remains solid.
➡️ During its March 19 meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% and reiterated its patient "wait-and-see" approach. Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the need for caution, highlighting forecasts that indicate slower growth and slightly higher inflation—some of which could be exacerbated by the upcoming tariffs.
Personal opinion:
➡️ The Australian Dollar has a 2-day winning streak, but this currency still depends on the developments of global trade tensions, China's growth prospects and central bank policy moves
➡️ Technically, AUD/USD has entered the overbought zone and is showing signs of decline. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain the upward momentum in the short term, especially with the upcoming US tariff announcement.
➡️ Analysis based on resistance - support levels and Pivot points combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell AUD/USD 0.6295 - 0.6310
❌SL: 0.6335 | ✅TP: 0.6255 - 0.6225
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
BTC MSB Short SetupInvalidation = 15min candle close above level (black upper line)
Entry = hoping that the 15min candle spikes this dashed black line at 84k but still closes below the level
I can't put limit orders on the level because SL and invalidation are so close that the invalidation would cause a -R too big. That's why I hope for price to shoot above the level, hit my entry but still close below it, and if price would close above the level, thus invalidating the trade, my higher entry can make up for this.
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Red dashed line = SL
Black dashed line = entry
TP = 76k.5-ish level (black dashed line further down)
Red line: with a low like this (price not forming a structure at the lows but immediately going back up) I can't see price getting above the broken HL-structure, so SL should be somewhere above this HL-structure, so above the red line marking the top of the HL structure.
Lower black line: if we get an SFP at the upper black line, price closing below this level would probably mean a new short opening with SL now being the SFP.
EURJPY Double Top - Bearish Reversal Ahead Toward Target!🔍 Chart Analysis: Identifying the Double Top Pattern
The EURJPY (Euro/Japanese Yen) 1-hour chart shows a classic Double Top pattern, which is a strong bearish reversal formation. This pattern occurs when the price reaches a significant resistance level twice but fails to break above it, indicating a potential shift from bullish momentum to bearish control.
1️⃣ Top 1: The first peak formed as buyers pushed the price higher, but strong resistance forced a pullback.
2️⃣ Top 2: The price attempted to break the same resistance level again but failed, forming a second peak at approximately 164.165, confirming that sellers are overpowering buyers.
3️⃣ Neckline (Support Level): The critical support level around 160.000 acted as a trigger for the bearish move. Once this level broke, the double top pattern was confirmed.
📌 Key Levels and Market Structure
🔹 Resistance (164.165): The highest level where sellers dominated, preventing further upward movement.
🔹 Support/Neckline (160.000): This level acted as a crucial pivot. Once broken, it signaled a trend reversal.
🔹 Take Profit Levels:
TP1 – 159.036: This serves as the first profit target, aligning with a prior demand zone.
TP2 – 157.200: The full projected downside move based on the double top pattern.
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): Above 164.165, ensuring a risk-managed approach in case of trend invalidation.
📉 Trading Strategy: How to Trade This Setup?
1️⃣ Entry Confirmation:
The ideal entry was after the price broke the neckline at 160.000 and retested it as resistance.
A breakdown candle with high volume confirmed seller dominance.
2️⃣ Stop-Loss Placement:
A stop-loss above 164.165 provides room for price fluctuations while protecting against false breakouts.
3️⃣ Profit Targets:
TP1: 159.036, securing partial profits.
TP2: 157.200, completing the double top measured move.
📊 Market Psychology & Price Action Insights
The double top pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish.
The repeated rejection at 164.165 signals a lack of buying strength, increasing the probability of a downward move.
The breakdown of the 160.000 neckline confirms that sellers have taken control.
The price action also shows a lower-high formation, reinforcing bearish momentum.
✅ Conclusion: Bearish Bias Until 157.200
This setup strongly favors short positions, as long as the price stays below 162.500.
A break above 164.165 invalidates the bearish setup, signaling a potential reversal.
Until then, the market remains bearish, with TP1 & TP2 as achievable downside targets.
💬 What’s your outlook on EURJPY? Drop your analysis below! 👇
TAOUSDTDisclaimer 👉 This is my personal analysis for educational purposes , Buy/Sell/Trade at your own risk. I am not a financial Advisor
