Bitcoin/USD H4 timeframe, Swing trade Idea.Bitcoin/USD H4 timeframe, Swing trade Idea. Wait for rally to Supply zone and confirmation to drop to Demand.
Risk ti Reward 1:12.
Beyond Technical Analysis
PAGS in position for sweet buyAnother classical setup this time with PAGS
Young sexy bank from developing Brasillll, good Q-results and good forecasts but with one problem: too many passengers aboard ...
What to do? We need a superhero who can get reed of all them. And his name is Jorge Kuri from Morgan Stanley who says the stock is worth 6,5 USD. I personally think he does a great job and I am thankful for his famous opinion that prepared for me as well (as, I suppose, for his bank) a setup to buy into this nice asset.
Gold's Local Minimum: A Magnet for Price Action?So, the trading week is behind us, and it’s time to kick back a bit, assess the price action, and build a trading plan for the upcoming week, keeping the main drivers in mind. Today, let’s focus on Gold.
Looking at the COT reports: there’s a divergence between the positions of the Commercials and the movement of the underlying asset.
What does that mean? It suggests that hedgers don’t see the need to increase their hedge positions (in the case of Gold, that means short positions). The interpretation here is that there’s a high probability of a correction in the underlying asset.
Retail positions show an average aggregated long position around $2707 (according to open-source data). So, for now, the average positions are in the green, which means the bulls are feeling good, but that’s not all... Remember that level $2707; we’ll come back to it later.
The options sentiment is mixed, with some repositioning in portfolios targeting both up and down, but with a slight bias. The specifics of these adjustments tell me that a correction is expected, but overall, the options traders still see the trend moving upward.
Now, let’s take a look at the chart and summarize.
Remember that level $2707 I mentioned earlier? Let’s find it on the chart. Oops... turns out that’s a local minimum. So, here’s the deal: there’s a level with liquidity (open positions + local minimum), in other words, we have a "magnet" that will definitely attract the prices.
Personally, I stick to a trading strategy of not trading against the trend, even if a correction is confirmed by my analysis. But for some, that potential downside might look appealing enough to open a short position.
Good Luck and Have a Nice Weekend!
AMD could hit 200 soonThe structure of NASDAQ:AMD offers the price to hit 200 soon, the path down seems to be a trap.
Looks stupid, but all good ideas do so. Cross fingers.
ETH USDT#ETH USD trending at very important zone.
We can look for long with SL below 2385.
Entry must be in part and with proper risk management.
2400$ is also key level
If market not sustainable at 2450 we can see 2400$ zone.
No high leverage trades 🚫
#btc #eth
Nifty 50 Trading Shades of GreyTrading the Greys
New Week New Zones for Nifty.
No positional trade for now for now.
News Failure and Favorable Winds for Chinese StocksFundamentals & Sentiment
CN50A:
- PBOC has officially ramped up support for the stock market, relending facility launched
- Couldn't hold lower after bad Industrial profits release
USD:
- De-escalation sentiment after the attack on Iran
Technical & Other
Setup: S(RTF)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Sideways
Long-term: Up
Min target: Local high
Stop loss: 0.9%
Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit
Buy Limit
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable weakness by completing the Inner Index Dip at 5733, in conjunction with the Mean Support level of 5798, while leaving the gap by not reaching the secondary Mean Support level of 5700. This development of fulfilling the gap will likely stimulate a significant rebound toward the Mean Resistance level of 5775, with the possibility of further extension. The 5700 support level is critical for facilitating a primary recovery and advancing into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend. However, it is imperative to acknowledge that achieving and penetrating the 5700 level could instigate a downward spiral in price action to Mean Sup 5620.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Eurodollar surpassed our Mean Resistance level of 1.083 during this week's trading session, demonstrating enough strength to initiate a robust interim rebound. However, ongoing selling pressure has pushed the Eurodollar back down to our Mean Support level of 1.083, which now acts as the inverse of the previous resistance. The Euro will likely decline further, potentially hitting the Inner Currency Dip of 1.075 through Mean Support at 1.078. This price action will be significant and trigger an interim rebound to the newly established Mean Support level of 1.082.
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
According to the analysis of the Bitcoin Daily Chart for October 25, the "Interim Rebound" in Bitcoin has successfully concluded the Main Inner Coin Rally at 73300. It has subsequently retraced to the support level of 69400. This level represents the inverse of the previously completed Inner Coin Rally at 69400. We anticipate initiating a primary rebound, which is expected to support a recovery that will retest the Key Resistance at 73200. This movement will align with the completion of the Main Inner Coin Rally at 73300 and may lead to further progression into the next phase of the bullish trend, designated as the Next Inner Coin Rally at 78500 and beyond. Conversely, we project a potential additional pullback to satisfy the criteria of the newly established Inner Coin Dip at 66200.
Increase the difficulty level on yourself. Often, traders like to make things a lot harder for themselves than they need to. Everyone is seeking a silver bullet, truth is "less is actually more".
Dow Theory is actually the Grandfather of technical analysis.
If you have never heard of this, or even if you have and brushed over it, you are missing out.
Some people will say things like "it's over 100 years old it can't work in today's market"
Yet, humans have changed very little in those last 100+ years. Sentiment driven by fear and greed is where the secret is hidden.
Let me explain by saying Dow theory has 6 "rules" (tenets).
1) Market Moves in Trends Markets have three types of movements: primary trends (long-term trends that last for years), secondary trends (medium-term trends that retrace parts of the primary trend), and minor trends (short-term trends that are typically noise).
You will notice I used the weekly for the larger and the daily for the second.
When I journal my trade setups; I simply use a traffic light system red lines size 4 for primary, then orange line 3 for secondary and green size 2 for the trigger phase. In addition to that, I mark the trends with 3 boxes and arrows pointing up down or sideways.
The second rule;
Each trend has three phases:
Accumulation Phase. In this phase, informed investors start buying or selling, counter to the general market opinion.
Public Participation Phase, more investors notice the trend after it is already underway, and media coverage expands, driving the trend further. (Wyckoff called this a mark-up or mark-down phase)
Excess Phase (or Distribution): At this point, speculation is rampant and detached from actual value, leading informed investors to prepare an exit.
This is where a lot of Wyckoff, Elliott and other tools such as Smart money concepts all overlap.
Then, the 3rd rule.
The market reflects all available information, such as economic conditions and sentiment. Therefore, movement in the market averages considers and reflects this information. (in simple terms, discount the news).
4) For a trend to be validated, different market averages must confirm each other. For example, the trend in the Dow Jones Industrial Average should be confirmed by the Dow Jones Transportation Average. If one index moves to a new high or low, the other should follow suit to confirm the trend.
(I like this one less, but in some instances it can make the next move very obvious.)
Rule 5) The trend is your friend, until the end. Until you see a clear change in the direction, a market shift. The trend is still in play. This one, I feel most just can't comprehend.
As you can see below, I have marked up the extreme high and low, I know both my primary and secondary trends are down. So now, I can use my EW bias or start looking for a Wyckoff schematic. (if I believe we are about to see a shift in the trend.)
You can start to look for information for areas of interest, look into volume and volume profiles.
The last rule. Confirming the trend volume expanding in the direction of the primary trend. For an uptrend, volume should increase as prices rise and decrease during corrections. In a downtrend, volume should increase as prices fall.
In this example, the Fibonacci levels line up, the volume is slowing, the EW count makes some sense and zoomed out you can see a shift.
Now, with all of this info - we could look at "areas of interest"
We are in a demand zone on the higher time frame.
At this stage, there is no trade entry, but if we were to view a change in the character we could simply take a trade as a pullback on the primary trend down.
Something like this;
You see, all you are doing is following the trend and taking a look at other tools, auction areas, fib extensions, an EW bias, and hints of a Wyckoff schematic. But under the hood, the 3 trend principle is a simple-to-follow process.
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
BTCUSDULTRA INSTINCT!!!! You can't be Reactive to the market; you MUST be ProActive! To know what Price is going to do, you have to know what Price is doing, & to determine what Price is doing, you have to know what Price DID!
_SnipeGoat_
_TheeCandleReadingGURU_
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GOLD BY NHLAKANIPHO NKABINDEHi, NHLAKANIPHO NKABINDE here, this is my GOLD analysis, im targeting to sell gold only if it can manage to broke those two strong support level even though we are bullish but i see H&S formation confirming possible sell. We can not sell at the neckline this time due do that double strong support but below second support if we can break it the we can sell. Thanks , peace
Second Attempt - News Failure And Follow-Through Tactical PlayFundamentals & Sentiment
GBP:
- The pair didn't hold lower after the negative CPI this week
- Strong Retail Sales today
- There's still a miniscule chance that the rate will be unchanged
- Biggest carry currency
USD:
- Shrugged off good US data yesterday
Technical & Other
- Entered 3m after the Retail Sales release
- Failed breakout below 1.3 on D
Setup: TR(B)
Setup timeframe: 1h
Trigger: 5m
Medium-term: Down
Long-term: Up
Min target: Local high
Stop loss: 0.18%(max, partial cuts are expected)
Position size: 0.5R
Understanding Bitcoin ETFs: What They Are and Why They Matter?1. What is a Bitcoin ETF?
A Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks the value of Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without directly owning it. Bitcoin ETFs operate similarly to traditional ETFs, which track the value of assets like stocks, commodities, or indices. Managed by financial institutions, Bitcoin ETFs are available on traditional stock exchanges, making it easier for investors to participate in Bitcoin’s price movements through regular brokerage accounts.
There are two main types of Bitcoin ETFs:
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Track the current market price of Bitcoin, directly reflecting its value.
Futures-based Bitcoin ETFs: Track the value of Bitcoin futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell Bitcoin at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future.
In the U.S., Bitcoin futures ETFs have been approved and launched on major exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), while spot Bitcoin ETFs are still under regulatory review by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
2. How Does a Bitcoin ETF Differ from Buying Bitcoin Directly?
While both Bitcoin ETFs and direct Bitcoin purchases provide exposure to Bitcoin’s value, they differ in several key ways:
Ownership and Custody
Bitcoin ETFs: Investors own shares in the ETF, but not the actual Bitcoin itself. The ETF provider holds the underlying Bitcoin or Bitcoin futures contracts, taking on the responsibility of secure custody.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Investors who buy Bitcoin directly through cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets own the Bitcoin and have full control over it, including the responsibility for secure storage.
Access and Regulatory Oversight
Bitcoin ETFs: Are traded on traditional stock exchanges and are regulated by financial authorities. This oversight ensures investor protections that are not typically present in cryptocurrency markets.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Involves buying from cryptocurrency exchanges, many of which are less regulated and may lack certain protections offered by traditional financial products.
Trading Hours
Bitcoin ETFs: Trade during standard market hours, typically from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM EST. Investors can buy or sell shares only within these hours.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Bitcoin can be traded 24/7, giving investors the flexibility to enter or exit positions at any time.
Taxation and Fees
Bitcoin ETFs: Investors are subject to capital gains taxes and may also incur management fees for ETF administration.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Direct Bitcoin investors are also subject to capital gains taxes. However, they may face lower or no management fees, depending on how they store their Bitcoin.
Use of Leverage and Derivatives
Bitcoin Futures ETFs: These funds allow investors to speculate on Bitcoin’s future price movements without holding actual Bitcoin. However, futures-based ETFs can be more complex, as they rely on futures contracts rather than spot prices, which can introduce tracking errors.
Direct Bitcoin Purchase: Investors buy Bitcoin directly, holding actual units of the asset without derivatives or leverage, providing a more straightforward exposure to its current market price.
3. Why is a Bitcoin ETF Important for the Cryptocurrency Market?
The approval of a Bitcoin ETF is a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market for several reasons:
1. Broader Accessibility
Traditional Investors: A Bitcoin ETF opens the door to traditional investors, especially those who may not be comfortable using cryptocurrency exchanges. Investors can access Bitcoin exposure through familiar brokerage accounts without needing to learn about wallets or private keys.
Institutional Interest: A Bitcoin ETF creates an easier path for institutional investors to participate in the Bitcoin market, bringing in large amounts of capital. As institutions enter the market, Bitcoin's market liquidity and price stability may improve.
2. Increased Legitimacy
The introduction of a Bitcoin ETF legitimizes Bitcoin as an asset class in the eyes of regulators, investors, and financial institutions. It signals recognition from regulatory bodies and increases trust in Bitcoin among mainstream investors.
3. Boost to Market Liquidity
Bitcoin ETFs can increase liquidity in the market, as they provide a regulated and accessible means for both retail and institutional investors to gain Bitcoin exposure. Greater liquidity can reduce volatility, making the market more stable over time.
4. Potential for Price Appreciation
With increased demand and accessibility, a Bitcoin ETF could lead to upward price pressure on Bitcoin. This is especially relevant for spot ETFs, which would require the fund to hold actual Bitcoin, thus increasing demand for the underlying asset.
5. Step Toward Broader Cryptocurrency ETF Adoption
Approval of a Bitcoin ETF could pave the way for ETFs focused on other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, expanding the options for crypto exposure within traditional markets. This could accelerate the overall growth of the cryptocurrency sector.
4. Pros and Cons of Bitcoin ETFs
While Bitcoin ETFs offer numerous benefits, they also come with certain drawbacks.
Advantages of Bitcoin ETFs
Ease of Access: ETFs are easily accessible through traditional brokerage accounts, removing the need for new accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Regulatory Protections: ETFs are regulated by financial authorities, providing investors with protections that may be absent on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Enhanced Liquidity: Increased market liquidity through ETF participation can reduce volatility and provide a more stable trading environment for Bitcoin.
Professional Custody: ETF providers manage Bitcoin custody and security, making it easier for investors who do not want to worry about wallet security or private key management.
Diversification Opportunities: Bitcoin ETFs can be included in retirement accounts or blended into traditional investment portfolios, broadening their appeal as a tool for diversification.
Disadvantages of Bitcoin ETFs
Limited Trading Hours: ETFs can only be traded during standard market hours, unlike Bitcoin, which is available 24/7 on cryptocurrency exchanges.
Management Fees: Most Bitcoin ETFs come with annual management fees, which can reduce overall returns for investors.
Potential for Tracking Errors: In futures-based ETFs, tracking errors may occur, meaning the ETF's performance may not accurately match Bitcoin’s actual price movements.
No Direct Ownership of Bitcoin: ETF investors do not own Bitcoin itself, which means they miss out on the ability to use or transfer the asset directly.
Market Dependency on Regulators: The introduction and ongoing success of Bitcoin ETFs depend on regulators’ willingness to approve and support crypto-based financial products, which may limit the ETF market’s expansion.
5. Outlook and Future of Bitcoin ETFs
The potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. could be a game-changer. With increased institutional and retail access, the Bitcoin ETF market could drive greater adoption and legitimacy for cryptocurrencies overall. However, regulatory challenges remain, as the SEC has thus far resisted approving spot Bitcoin ETFs due to concerns about market manipulation and lack of robust investor protections.
As regulatory clarity improves, we may see a broader array of crypto-based ETFs emerge, possibly including multi-asset ETFs that combine Bitcoin with other cryptocurrencies or assets, such as stocks or commodities. Furthermore, as institutional adoption grows, the role of ETFs in the financial ecosystem could increase, potentially influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics and volatility as well.
Conclusion
Bitcoin ETFs represent a bridge between the traditional financial world and the emerging cryptocurrency market. While they offer unique advantages, such as regulatory protections and ease of access, they also come with limitations like management fees, limited trading hours, and the lack of direct ownership. For those who want exposure to Bitcoin within the security of a regulated investment product, Bitcoin ETFs provide a promising option.
The success and potential of Bitcoin ETFs lie in their ability to draw both individual and institutional investors into the cryptocurrency market, making it a potentially transformative development for the financial world. As more countries consider ETF approval, and as the cryptocurrency industry matures, Bitcoin ETFs could play a pivotal role in the mainstream adoption and integration of digital assets.
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✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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Key Support / Resistance Breakout - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Key Support & Resistance Breakout. Stock has give Breakout of Resistance level. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Swing Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think.
Sentiment Play Before Major Events (Past)Fundamentals & Sentiment
EUR:
- Recent economic data has been bullish, driving the euro up
GBP:
- Raised taxes - bearish in the short-term for the pound
- Recent bearish economic data
Technical & Other
Expectations
- after such a runup, the technical area is good for taking profits, especially before NFP on the same day and the US Elections next week.
Setup: S(B)
Setup timeframe: 1h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Down
Min target: 50% of the upward move
Stop loss: 0.26%
Position size: 0.66 of the normal Risk Unit
TASI: HISTORICAL ANALYSIS WITH A LONG TERM STRATEGIC PLANHistorical data analysis of TASI, since its beginning in 1985, shows a peculiar pattern wherein trading TASI for only 6 months in a year for 10 consecutive years yields higher or similar returns compared to buy & hold strategy during the same period.
So a profitable strategic trading plan can be made with following
Key highlights:
50% capital exposure to the market: trading will be carried out only 6 months out of 12 months.
Higher or similar returns when compared to buy & hold strategy for the duration of plan (10 consecutive years).
Back testing results since 1985 have shown increase in returns with the rate of 8.8%, 16% & 43%.
Returns for the last trading plan (2014-2024) have exceeded 100%: the capital in 2014 would have doubled in 2024 using the strategy.
A balanced strategy incorporating the best of both ‘trading’ and ‘investing’ worlds. No worries about daily price action or getting out of trade due to stop loss, while also having the leisure and cash-in-hand for half of the year.
A long term plan: 10 consecutive years but only 6 months in each year will be traded.
If you like to access the trading plan in full details (with back testing proof in pdf & excel workbook), please reach out to me at: umairx88@gmail.com. Bear in mind that the month of November is not only included in the plan rather it is one of the crucial months of the plan.
BTC short (btc daily candle strong rejection)BTC short (btc daily candle strong rejection)
price will move to fibonacci - 0.382 (67723.94), double rejection also seen on daily candle, price 70164.01 good choice to start selling
FTT , FTX and SAM vs. CZPeter Brandt just post a head and shoulders pattern for FTT!! anyway...
in the hours before FTX secured rescue from Binance, it sought a bailout of more than $1 billion from Silicon Valley and Wall Street billionaires. By midday Tuesday the hole appeared far deeper closer to $5 billion to $6 billion. SBF wrote in a message to staff sent on Tuesday morning, “in the last 72 hours, we’ve had roughly $6b of net withdrawals from FTX”. Withdrawals at FTX are “effectively paused”, he wrote, adding that would be resolved in “the near future”
targets 5 , 4 , 3
NEIROETH, about to explode again soon, may retest 10x again.A new meme coin has emerged and caught the market’s attention with rapid price growth. It’s called Neiro Ethereum and is based on the OG doge meme coin.
After launching, it has risen to a staggering $193 million market cap.
But BTC and overall market selling pressure has dominated everything - and memes took the swipe too -- with so much volatility.
From peaking at a parabolic high of 0.20, NEIRO retraced heavily to an outrageously bargain zone at minus 10x levels to 0.020 zone.
Now, based on the latest daily data metrics. There is an apparent heavy accumulation at the current price range and a strong reversal to the upside is expected from here on.
At a lighter mcap now, the bargain opportunity is too tempting to be missed.
Spotted at 0.0250
Target: Back to previous peak at 0.20
TAYOR.
Ripple | XRP is not a securityThe Southern District of New York concluded that Ripple’s Programmatic Sales and Other Distributions of XRP did not constitute the offer and sale of investment contracts.
But Ripple’s Institutional Sales of XRP constituted the unregistered offer and sale of investment contracts in violation of Section 5 of the Securities Act. Adam Cochran: First Judge did decide institutional sales/fundraising was securities. But the programmatic sale on exchanges didn't meet third prong of Howey. So sales to users via exchanges may be fine, as long as it was through orderbook and not ICO/IEO/Launchpad like things. Bounties, investments in others using XRP, grants using XRP, and transfers to execs in XRP not considered securities
The judge held that the XRP token itself is not a security, but the transactions and schemes around trading it need to discuss.
The Judge: "XRP, as a digital token, is not in and of itself a contract, transaction, or scheme that embodies the Howey requirements of an investment contract.Rather, the Court examines the totality of circumstances surrounding Defendants’ different transactions and schemes involving the sale and distribution of XRP.
ConsenSys lawyer Bill Hughes briefly explained the XRP court decision, saying that ultimately a jury will be needed to decide whether Ripple execs aided and abetted this unregistered issuance; the SEC is expected to appeal to the Second Circuit immediately.
