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Market next target 1. Mislabeling of Support Area The red box is labeled as a support area, but price is approaching from below, not above—so technically, this should be called a resistance area. Until price closes above it with volume, it cannot be assumed to act as support. --- 2. Volume Misinterpretation The volume does not strongly support a breakout. The latest green bars are not significantly larger than prior volume, implying limited bullish conviction. Lack of volume surge through resistance is often a false breakout indicator. --- 3. Single Scenario Bias The analysis shows only an upside (bullish) projection, ignoring bearish possibilities. If price gets rejected from resistance, there’s a strong chance of a pullback to $33.00 or lower, especially with weak momentum. --- 4. No Confirmation Indicators The chart lacks confirming technical indicators like RSI, MACD, or trendlines to validate the bullish scenario. Price could be forming a lower high, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend.
TVC:SILVERLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
Market next target 1. Misinterpretation of Support Area Claimed support area has already been broken previously (left of the red box), so it's no longer strong support—it might be better viewed as resistance now. The bounce from this zone could be a liquidity trap or a fakeout, rather than genuine buying interest. --- 2. Overreliance on a Single Target Zone The chart implies a clear target zone below, but no Fibonacci, moving average, or volume profile is shown to validate this zone. A better analysis might include additional tools (like RSI, Bollinger Bands, or Fibonacci levels) to confirm this as a realistic target. --- 3. Volume Analysis Oversight There is a volume spike on the most recent bullish candles, which could indicate strong buying interest, contradicting the downtrend expectation. This might suggest a potential breakout above resistance instead of a fall. --- 4. No Risk Management Consideration The chart lacks stop-loss levels or invalidation points, which is crucial for trading strategies. Without a clear invalidation, the trade idea becomes more speculative. --- 5. Alternative Scenario Missing A bullish breakout scenario (above resistance zone) isn’t given enough weight. Given the recent strength, there is a strong case for continuation upward if the price closes above the red box with volume.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
5 Trading Beliefs That Keep Me Untouchable! Do you check off 5?Everyone talks about edge, but few talk about identity. These are the thoughts I rehearse every day. Not to hype myself up, but to root myself deeper in who I must become. These beliefs don’t just sharpen my trading — they shield my mind from chaos. Welcome to The Part 2 1. Money is not important It’s fuel, not the fire. I don’t chase paper — I chase precision. The second money becomes my reason, fear walks in the door. But when it’s just the byproduct of execution and clarity? That’s when I move with power. > “He who chases the outcome loses the process. He who masters the process controls the outcome.” 2. It’s OK to lose in markets Losses don’t mean I’m off-track — they mean I’m engaged. Some trades are tuition. And I pay them with purpose. Because every great trader I study… bled first, banked later. I lose like a winner — with awareness, not emotion. 3. Mental rehearsal is essential Every night before bed — every morning before I trade — I see it first. I walk through the setup, the entry, the hold, the exit. I rehearse calmness, I rehearse precision. So when the real trade shows up? I don’t react. I recognize. I’ve already been there. 4. Trading is a game Serious results. Serious purpose. But never serious emotion. A game has rules. Patterns. Levels. And like every master of any game — I study, train, and outlast those who play sloppy. > “The market isn’t trying to beat me. It’s just the board I’m learning to dominate.” 5. I’ve already won before I start I walk in as the version of me who’s already achieved the outcome. Not hoping — knowing. I act from the future I’ve already decided is mine. And when I operate from that space? The market bends to meet me there. > These aren’t just beliefs. They’re mental armor. If you’re walking this path to elite performance, I’m not here to motivate you — I’m here to remind you of who you already are. Stay locked in. If you trade, which one of these are you still working on?
Education
by theeOperator90
Stuck in a Squeeze, Fade the TopAs the Australian Dollar, a currency traditionally correlated with risk, has been trading in a range since mid-April, fading rallies near the top of that range appears to offer the best odds in the current environment. Here’s the breakdown. Fundamental Analysis The Australian Dollar continues to move without clear direction as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pursues a clearly dovish path. The RBA’s most recent 25bp rate cut, bringing the official cash rate down to 3.85%, was justified by the central bank’s confidence that inflation is returning to target, coupled with lingering global uncertainties. According to the RBA Rate Tracker, markets are now assigning a 70% probability to yet another 25bp rate cut at the next meeting, an outlook that continues to weigh heavily on AUD yields and the currency’s appeal. On the other side of the Pacific, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders do not expect any policy easing from the Federal Reserve before late summer at the earliest. This means the US-Australia interest rate differential is likely to increase, making it even more expensive to hold AUD against the greenback. Compounding the challenges for the Aussie is the ongoing economic slowdown in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. With Chinese demand for commodities muted, there is little external support for the AUD. Technical Analysis Technically, after a sharp rebound in early April, the Aussie has remained stuck in a frustratingly tight range, unable to regain any significant upward momentum. Since its highs at the end of September, the currency is still down almost 7%. Price action has been confined to a broad consolidation zone between 0.6350 and 0.65 USD for over a month, with sellers consistently capping rallies at the upper end. The volume profile analysis reveals a heavy concentration of traded volume in the 0.6440–0.6465 band, reinforcing this area as a significant battle zone where sellers are likely to defend their ground. For the bulls to regain control, a sustained break above 0.6520 would be needed, something that appears unlikely in the current macro context. Sentiment Analysis From a positioning perspective, the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that large speculators continue to hold net short positions in the Aussie, signaling ongoing professional bearish bias. Retail sentiment paints a similarly contrarian picture: broker data from FX/CFD platforms indicates a slim majority of retail traders remain long AUD/USD, with some brokers showing more than 70% long positions. This crowded long condition means there is still fuel for further downside, especially if key support levels give way. Notably, retail stop losses are clustered between 0.6400 and 0.6350, and these could act as accelerants if triggered by a downside break. In addition, risk sentiment remains fragile. While the VIX has eased somewhat, it struggles to remain sustainably below 20, a sign that investor nerves are still on edge and defensive flows are likely to persist. Listed Options Analysis The options market continues to reinforce the idea that rallies will struggle to gain traction. Open interest on call options remains heavily concentrated above spot, particularly at the 0.6500, 0.6525, 0.6550, and 0.6600 strikes, creating a robust technical ceiling. This makes it difficult for the Aussie to stage any sharp or lasting rallies. In contrast, open interest on put options is moderate and scattered, with the largest concentrations around 0.6400 and 0.6450, but there is no significant put wall below spot. The put/call open interest ratio is close to parity, indicating a relatively balanced positioning between calls and puts, with no strong directional bias from the options market. Implied volatility for the front month remains elevated around 9.8–10.1%, and the risk reversal remains slightly negative, suggesting a modest preference for downside protection, but markets are not in panic mode. The heavy concentration of call OI above spot still introduces some gamma risk: if the market rallies into the 0.6500–0.6550 zone, a short squeeze could briefly occur, but such moves are likely to encounter renewed selling pressure and fade quickly. Trade Idea With the RBA set to remain dovish, China’s demand subdued, and global risk aversion remaining elevated, the Aussie remains a tactical short on rallies. The macro, technical, and sentiment picture all favor a bearish stance. Entry: Short Australian Dollar (6AM5) on rallies to 0.6440–0.6465 Stop: 0.6520 (just above high-volume node and call OI cluster) Target: 0.6350 (support, stop loss cluster below 0.64) The trade provides a risk/reward ratio close to 2:1, thanks to a tight stop above resistance and a realistic profit target near support. However, the outlook could change if the Fed pivots more dovishly than expected after the recent Moody’s downgrade of US debt. The FX landscape could shift rapidly and trigger a covering rally in AUD/USD. For now, though, the odds favor playing from the short side. We’ll monitor stops closely and be ready to adapt if the macro winds start to shift. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/. This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6A1!Short
by satelysfx
Nasdaq futures - medium term correction is quite likely# Elliott Wave Analysis of Nasdaq 100 Futures: Critical Juncture Signals Potential Reversal Based on the provided Elliott Wave chart analysis of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures, the market appears to be at a critical inflection point where Wave 5 of the primary impulsive sequence may be nearing completion. At the current level of **20,910.75**, down **267.50 points (-1.26%)**, technical indicators suggest a potential major corrective phase could be imminent. The convergence of Elliott Wave completion patterns, RSI divergence signals, and extreme market sentiment readings creates a compelling case for heightened caution among traders. ## Elliott Wave Structure Analysis ### Current Wave Count and Positioning The chart reveals a completed five-wave impulsive structure that began from the March 2020 lows, with Wave 5 potentially reaching its terminal point around current levels . According to Elliott Wave Theory, **Wave 5 is prone to truncation and often presents with indicator divergence** . The current structure shows classic characteristics of a maturing Wave 5, where **the fifth wave is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend** . The exponential moving averages positioned at **20,211.64** and **20,278.60** provide crucial support levels that align with the expected Wave 4 correction zone. Elliott Wave practitioners recognize that **Wave 4 typically retraces less than 38.2% of Wave 3** , and the current price action respects these theoretical boundaries. The fractal nature of Elliott Waves suggests that within the larger degree Wave 5, we have likely completed five sub-waves of lesser degree. ### Fibonacci Relationships and Target Zones Elliott Wave analysis relies heavily on Fibonacci relationships between waves. The chart shows potential completion targets where **Wave 5 equals Wave 1** or represents **0.618 to 1.618 of Wave 1 plus Wave 3** . Current price levels appear to satisfy these mathematical relationships, suggesting the impulsive sequence may be mathematically complete. When **Wave 5 is extended, the most common multiple for its length is 1.618 times the length of Wave 1 through Wave 3** , which aligns with current market positioning. ## RSI Divergence Signals ### Bearish Divergence Formation The RSI indicator at the bottom of the chart displays classic **bearish divergence characteristics**, where **price makes higher highs while RSI forms lower highs** . This divergence pattern typically occurs **when RSI is above 70, signaling that the asset is overbought** . The current RSI reading suggests that **buying pressure is fading** despite continued price advances, which **is usually a sign that the uptrend is losing strength, and a downward reversal might be coming** . **Wave 5 almost always presents with indicator divergence** , and the RSI pattern confirms this theoretical expectation. The divergence serves as an **early warning that the uptrend might lose momentum and reverse** , providing traders with advance notice of potential trend changes before they manifest in price action. ### Momentum Deterioration The weakening RSI momentum while prices reach new highs indicates **underlying selling pressure building beneath the surface** . This divergence pattern suggests that **institutional smart money may be distributing positions** while retail sentiment remains bullish. The divergence becomes more significant when confirmed by other technical indicators and Elliott Wave completion patterns. ## Market Sentiment Context ### Fear and Greed Index Implications Recent market sentiment data reveals extreme volatility in investor psychology. The **CNN Fear and Greed Index plunged to just 3 on April 8, marking its lowest level since March 2020** , before recovering modestly to **8** by mid-May. These extreme fear readings historically correlate with major market turning points, though **fear of this magnitude can bring extreme volatility, often resulting in steep market declines** . The index's current positioning suggests that while fear has dominated recent sessions, contrarian signals may be emerging. Historically, **when fear reaches extreme levels, it has marked moments of potential opportunity or further market turbulence** . The combination of extreme sentiment readings with Elliott Wave completion patterns creates a confluence of reversal signals. ### Volatility Environment The **CBOE Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index (VXN)** has elevated to significant levels, with recent readings around **24.20** . Higher VXN levels indicate **heightened expectations of near-term price swings** and often correlate with **institutional hedging activity** . When combined with Elliott Wave completion patterns, elevated volatility readings suggest market participants are positioning for significant directional moves. ## Trading Recommendations ### Short-Term Strategy (1-4 Weeks) **Bearish Positioning**: The confluence of Elliott Wave 5 completion, RSI divergence, and extreme sentiment readings suggests high probability of corrective action. Traders should consider **shorting rallies toward resistance zones between 21,000-21,200** with stops above Wave 5 highs. Target initial support at the **Wave 4 low around 19,000-19,500**, representing a potential **10-15% correction** . **Risk Management**: Given the potential for **truncated Wave 5 scenarios**, where the market reverses sharply without reaching typical extension targets , position sizing should be conservative. **Limit single-trade exposure to 1-2% of capital** and maintain strict stop-loss disciplines above recent highs. ### Medium-Term Outlook (1-3 Months) **Corrective Wave Expectations**: Following Elliott Wave theory, the completion of the five-wave impulsive sequence should trigger a **three-wave corrective pattern (A-B-C)** . Wave A corrections typically retrace **38.2% to 50% of the entire impulsive move**, suggesting potential targets in the **18,000-19,000 range**. Wave C of the correction **is typically at least as large as Wave A and often extends to 1.618 times Wave A** . **Sector Rotation Opportunities**: During major Elliott Wave corrections, defensive sectors often outperform growth-oriented technology stocks. Consider reducing exposure to **semiconductor and cloud computing sectors**, which have shown weakness with **-9.3% and -5.8% monthly declines respectively** , while increasing allocations to utilities and consumer staples. ### Long-Term Perspective (3-12 Months) **Accumulation Zones**: Major Elliott Wave corrections create optimal long-term accumulation opportunities. The projected **Wave A target zone between 18,000-19,000** should provide strategic entry points for patient investors. Historical analysis suggests that **Wave 2 corrections of higher degree** often retrace to previous resistance levels that become support. **Volatility Strategies**: Elevated VXN readings and expected corrective volatility create opportunities for **volatility premium capture strategies**. Consider selling put spreads at projected support levels and buying protective calls to benefit from mean reversion following the corrective sequence. ## Risk Considerations ### Alternative Wave Counts Elliott Wave analysis requires consideration of alternative scenarios. The current count assumes Wave 5 completion, but **complex Wave 4 patterns** could extend the impulsive sequence. If price breaks above recent highs with strong momentum, the **extended Wave 5 scenario** becomes more probable, targeting **22,500-23,000** levels . ### Macroeconomic Catalysts **Trade policy developments** and **Federal Reserve communications** could accelerate or delay the expected corrective sequence. **Trump's tariff policies** and ongoing **US-China trade tensions** create fundamental headwinds that support the bearish Elliott Wave scenario. Monitor **employment data and inflation readings** for confirmation of economic slowdown that typically accompanies major market corrections. ## Conclusion The Elliott Wave analysis of Nasdaq 100 Futures presents a compelling case for major trend reversal as Wave 5 approaches completion. The convergence of RSI bearish divergence, extreme sentiment readings, and theoretical wave relationships creates a high-probability setup for significant corrective action. Traders should prioritize capital preservation and position defensively while preparing for strategic accumulation opportunities in the projected correction zone. The fractal nature of Elliott Waves suggests this analysis applies across multiple timeframes, reinforcing the significance of current technical developments. Based in AI research
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by mfeigin
BTC - Bullish Madness or Bearish Retest?Zooming out on BTC chart we can note this major bearish trendline on the HTF. This diagonal support / resistance line can take BTC to 7,000. Likely? Maybe not. Possible? Absolutely. A straight move up on BTC like we have seen the last two years is very dangerous. There is a large chain reaction of leveraged sell orders via long position stop losses cascading down the price levels. Can this trigger a massive and fast flash crash? In my view - absolutely. Here are two potential moves that take price to those low liquidations levels. Possibility 1 110,000 to 35,000 35,000 retrace to 81,000 81,000 to 7,000 Possibility 2 110,000 to 43,000 43,000 retrace to 72,000 72,000 to 7,000 Note that both of these possibilities end with 7,000. I’m mapping out two routes that take us there, using confluences with trendlines, volume profiles, liquidity mapping, and common sense. Always remember that crypto is a very new market, with some unique mechanics that differentiate it from other more established markets. Predominantly the futures and high leverage usage and the ways these platforms make their money… Beware and be prepared.
Short
by DickDandy
5
USTEC100 Chart 4H, Trends To Watch for Short The provided USTEC 100 (US Tech 100) 4-hour chart highlights a strategic short (sell) trade setup based on technical price action and defined risk levels. The analysis suggests a bearish market bias, provided that specific price conditions are met and maintained. Let's explore the details and rationale behind this trade idea to understand how traders might approach this setup with calculated entries, targets, and stops. As per the current market data presented, USTEC 100 is trading around 21,115.00 on Monday, 19 May 2025. The chart emphasizes a critical resistance zone highlighted in red, located at approximately 21,445.10. This level acts as a potential invalidation point for the short trade. If the price crosses above this red zone and a full candle closes above it, the entire bearish setup becomes invalid. This is a key condition – any move above this threshold signifies a shift in market sentiment and cancels the downward outlook.
ICMARKETS:USTECShort
by MYWORLD115
GBPUSD Trend Analysis On The 4H Chart Profit SurgingThe GBPUSD currency pair, as observed on the 4-hour timeframe, is currently exhibiting signs of a potential bullish reversal, with a suggested entry near the 1.32696 price level. This analysis outlines retracement considerations, key target levels, and invalidation criteria based on technical structure and price behavior. ✦ Current Market Overview As of May 18, 2025, GBPUSD is priced at 1.32696. The market has formed a recent consolidation structure, showing attempts to hold above key support. The setup presented encourages buying opportunities based on the expectation of a bullish continuation or breakout from the current price zone. ✦ Retracement Zone and Entry Strategy The green highlighted area on the chart represents the **retracement or demand zone**. If price dips into this area, it is seen as a potential accumulation point for buyers. Key takeaways include: • **Retracement Zone Range**: Approximated between **1.31394** (low) and the lower edge of the green zone. • **Candle Close Below Green Zone**: If price closes below this zone, the bullish setup becomes invalid. • **Stop Loss (SL)**: Set at 20 pips below entry to minimize downside risk.
Long
by MYWORLD115
Daily Sniper Plan for Friday, May 23👋 Hey Gold Snipers, Ready to Slice Through the Noise? The market has been throwing shadows and traps all day — but structure doesn’t lie. As we head into May 23, we’ve mapped out the real levels that matter. No hype. Just clean logic. You want sniper entries? Here's where we hunt 🧠🎯 🔭 Bias for May 23: Bearish-to-Neutral Short-term bias is bearish as long as 3298 holds as resistance If bulls reclaim 3300+ with momentum, we shift into bullish continuation bias toward 3332–3345 Until then, we’re playing inside structure → fading premium, buying deep discount only on confirmation 🧭 Market Update Gold spent most of Thursday chopping inside indecision, dancing between reclaimed zones and rejected premiums. But smart money leaves a trail — and tonight, structure gave us the blueprint: CHoCH confirmed from 3345 → now forming a lower high structure EMA 5/21 still locked bearish on M15–H1, while price holds under the OB flip zone RSI is showing divergence near key demand FVGs still exposed both above and below = imbalance-driven reactions likely Momentum is building... but direction depends on how we react to these zones👇 🧩 Plan for Friday, May 23 – Built Around Key Zones 🔺 Sell Zone: 3314–3320 💥 Premium OB reaction area → If price taps and rejects, this is where shorts load → EMA 100 and previous LH sit here — high probability fade level → Watch for M5 CHoCH or bearish engulfing to trigger sniper logic ⚖️ Flip Zone: 3292–3298 🧠 Former demand turned resistance — now the pivot of truth → If price rejects here again, expect quick drop to 3260s → BUT... if bulls reclaim and hold above 3300, this flips the script → In that case, structure opens doors to: 🟡3314 🟡3332 Even 3345+ (liquidity sweep zone) We adapt with structure — not emotions. 🟩 Buy Zone #1: 3263–3273 ✅ CHoCH support base + FVG + RSI bounce → This is sniper ground if price returns here cleanly → Look for EMA 5/21 bull lock + M15 BOS → Reactive zone, not for the impulsive — confirmation or nothing 🟩 Buy Zone #2: 3242–3250 🔑 Deep liquidity sweep + fib 78–88.6% → If price runs the 3260 zone and traps liquidity, this is the reload zone → Needs strong wick + RSI divergence + internal BOS to act ❌ Breakdown/Invalidation Zone: 3222–3230 🚨 Below here = no more sniper longs → Structure flips HTF bearish → If it breaks with volume and OB rejection on retest = prepare for deeper slide 🧠 Final Thoughts: This isn’t about signals. It’s about structure. Gold moves best when we wait — not when we guess. We mapped every key zone. Now we wait for confirmation, follow the logic, and let the amateurs get baited in between. 🎯 Bias stays bearish under 3298. Above 3300, we start building toward higher liquidity zones — but confirmation is king. 💬 Let me know which zone you're watching. 🔁 Share this plan if it helped clarify your direction. 🟡 Like + Follow GoldFxMinds for sniper-level structure — every session.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldFxMinds
3
GOLD is About to COLLAPSE from a Fake Pump!📊 GOLD SMC Analysis (XAU/USD 4H) Gold just tapped into a major Fair Value Gap + Premium OB Zone, aligning with the 79% retracement level. Market structure shows exhaustion, and a perfect short setup is forming. 🔍 Smart Money Narrative: Strong prior bearish move = institutional sell-off ✅ Clean retrace into FVG (Fair Value Gap) and OB (Order Block) = sell zone 💯 Price tapped into 3,351 – 3,364 range (marked red) That level aligns with the 79% Fib + channel resistance 🚨 The confluence = Smart Money liquidity grab ➡️ expect dump 📍 Key Confluences: ✅ FVG: clear imbalance filled (great trap zone) ✅ Order Block: bearish origin of last impulse ✅ 79% Fib Level: classic retracement kill zone ✅ Bearish Trendline + Channel Top: dynamic resistance ✅ 3:1+ RRR short idea in play 📉 Trade Plan (Sell Setup): Entry Zone: 3,351 – 3,364 Stop Loss: 3,442 (above swing high) Take Profit: TP1: 3,280 (61.8% level) TP2: 3,120.76 (full move, 0% Fib) RRR: 1:3 to 1:4 🤑🔥 🧠 Institutional Logic: Retail is chasing breakout highs 😬 Smart Money is selling into OB + FVG → trap those late longs Next? Smash weak lows and rebalance price with a deep pullback 💬 “Gold’s headed for a cliff dive?” Drop a 💰 or ‘XAU’ if you’re riding this wave down!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
Moving in the uptrend, bulls dominate⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold prices slipped by approximately 0.48% on Thursday, retreating from a two-week peak of $3,345 and falling below the key $3,300 level. The decline was driven by renewed strength in the US Dollar, even as Treasury yields pulled back from their intraday highs. The pressure on the yellow metal intensified after the US House of Representatives passed President Trump’s budget proposal, which now heads to the Senate for final approval. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $3,289, marking a 0.83% daily loss. While sentiment in the broader market has seen a modest rebound, it remains fragile following Moody’s recent downgrade of US sovereign debt. The fiscal package approved by the House is expected to raise the national debt ceiling by a staggering $4 trillion, amplifying concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold price is still moving in the H1 uptrend line, buying power is still quite strong. ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3344- 3346 SL 3351 TP1: $3335 TP2: $3322 TP3: $3307 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3248- $3246 SL $3241 TP1: $3258 TP2: $3270 TP3: $3280 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
9
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Setting Up for a Trap and Crash📊 BTCUSD Smart Money Breakdown – May 23, 2025 This is a textbook liquidity trap setup — and the roadmap is crystal clear. The market already induced buyers at the top, is now tapping into an Order Block (OB) + 79% zone, and is preparing to nuke. 🔍 Market Narrative: Strong high established – retail likely placing longs above that. Clean retracement into Order Block zone (110,322 – 110,850) – where Smart Money is selling into demand. PA is projected to fake a bullish breakout, reverse, and go for a deeper Fair Value Gap fill near 107,786, eventually targeting the Sell-Side Liquidity zone at 106,188.31. 📍 Key Confluences: ✅ OB + 79% Fibonacci = strong SMC reversal zone ✅ Clear FVG waiting to be filled = imbalance = magnet ✅ Weak low at 107,786.83 = perfect inducement for Smart Money run ✅ Final stop = Sell Side Liquidity sweep below 106,200 📉 Price Path Forecast: Reject Order Block + Premium zone (110,496 – 110,850) Retrace → FVG fill (between 108,900 – 107,800 zone) Minor pullback or fake rally Final move: liquidity raid under 106,188 Smart Money buys low again, setting up next bullish leg (later) 🎯 Trade Plan (Short Idea): Entry Zone: Between 110,322 – 110,850 (OB) SL: Above 111,000 (above inducement) TP1: 107,786 (Weak Low) TP2: 106,188 (Sell-Side Liquidity Pool) RRR: Approx. 1:4 to 1:5 🔥 🧠 Institutional Logic: Retail sees sideways structure = buys top resistance SM sees that = sells into premium zone This is accumulation → manipulation → distribution at its finest. 💬 Think BTC’s about to drop hard? Type “DUMP” or 🔻 in the comments! Let’s see who’s trading with the big boys.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDShort
by ChartNinjas88
2
BTCUSDT 4H — Re-Accumulation in Play or Breakdown Brewing?Bitcoin is currently testing a critical confluence zone just below the prior ATH breakout (110k). After a clear Sign of Strength (SOS) breakout, price has retraced to retest the: 🔸 Mid Bollinger Band (108.9k) 🔸 Previous ATH breakout zone 🔸 Local channel support & uptrend line RSI is neutral at 50.76 and volume remains slightly elevated — suggesting a potential BU/LPS retest phase in this Wyckoff re-accumulation. 📉 Breakdown Risk? So far, no breakdown triggers confirmed per our risk model: ⛔ Price > lower BB (104.5k) ⛔ RSI > 45, not in weak momentum ⛔ No pattern breakdown with RSI < 40 That means no short hedge activated yet — but caution is warranted. A close below 104.5k with weak RSI & volume spike would invalidate the bullish structure. 🎯 Upside Targets if BU Holds: Resistance: 113.2k (Upper BB) Measured move from the pennant: 116.2k Further confluence at 118.2k (Fib 0.66 extension) 🧠 Weekend Watchlist: Do not trade based on 4H chart to avoid fakeouts and traps. Use it as early signal and confirm with daily close! 🔹 Hold above mid-BB keeps re-accumulation valid 🔹 Breakdown below lower-BB = structural failure 🔹 Volatility likely to spike — stay risk-managed 📚 Still within Wyckoff markup logic unless proven otherwise.
by BitcoinMillio18
1