US100 Trade Log - NFP + Bad Apple EarningsTrade Log (31/10/2024) - US100 Short Setup
1. Context: The setup is influenced by multiple bearish factors:
- Recent Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data indicating weaker-than-expected job growth.
- Bad earnings report from Apple, adding to negative market sentiment.
- Formation of a bearish wedge pattern on the charts.
- 1H timeframe shows a short signal within a Fair Value Gap (FVG) acting as a supply zone.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Entry confirmation: Enter short when price retraces into the 1H FVG and shows bearish signals, such as a reversal candle or rejection wick.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss above the upper boundary of the 1H FVG to protect against false breakouts.
- Set take-profit at twice the stop-loss distance for a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Monitor market reactions closely to any follow-up reports or news related to major tech stocks.
- Be prepared for increased volatility around NFP data and Apple’s impact on broader tech sentiment.
Beyond Technical Analysis
OIL: Three days breakout long on the marketHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you!
“Trade setups, not movements”
1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion)
Monday DAY 1 Opening Range
Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance
Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week
Thursday DAY 2
Friday DAY 3 Closing Range ✅
2. SIGNAL DAY
First Red Day
First Green Day
3 Days Long Breakout ✅
3 Days Short Breakout
Inside Day
3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE
Pump&Dump
Dump&Pump ✅
Frontside ✅
Backside
4. THESIS:
Long: that's my primary thesis, let's analyse the current market condition.
- Monday opened with a huge gap breaking through the previous low of week, establishing as well the high low of the new week (opening range).
- Tuesday, it almost consolidated the full day, not really interesting in terms of trading activity.
- Wednesday, the market performed the first breakout of the week, breaking the HOW, triggering long traders in the market and closing out of balance (an interesting signal)
- Thursday closed again out of balance, long traders are potentially driving this move.
- Today, Friday, the market has good chances to go reaching and targeting the closing price of last Friday, why ? because traders shorting the beginning of the week are still in profit and stops are placed above that level. After PMI 10am, if the market will setup for a buy low opportunity around the current level (yesterday HOD or London low), I will be willing to take this trade.
Short: at the moment not really into this scenario, but however, the market could retest the current high of day, failing for a reversal, day 3 longs in the market it can reverse for major move, but I repeat, the current setup is potentially long!
Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement.
Gianni
XRP Possible Upmove Incoming - 0.744$ NextIn this video, we break down the current market structure for XRP, highlighting a potential long trade opportunity. XRP is showing signs of a classic manipulation phase, where price action is likely being influenced by market makers, setting up for a larger move.
Key Levels:
Target 1: $0.666 – This is our initial and easiest target, a strong area of interest where we expect price to encounter resistance.
Target 2: $0.744 – Our extended target, representing a key resistance level that XRP could approach if bullish momentum continues.
BTC Dominance Chart - BITCOIN DOMINANCEBTC Dominance is the most important chart to follow to understand whether the crypto market is in an altcoin or Bitcoin season.
Currently, Bitcoin Dominance is in a strong bullish trend and has reached the 60% level. This means that Bitcoin alone holds 60% of the total crypto market value. In other words, the entire altcoin market, including ETH and other large-cap coins, represents only 40% of the market. Considering the crypto market has over 2,500 different coins/assets, it’s notable that all of them combined only account for 40% of the total market value, while Bitcoin alone makes up the other 60%.
In previous bull market cycles, this chart typically shows initial bullishness, followed by a strong reversal to the downside after a few months, which brings the largest returns in the altcoin market.
A bullish trend in BTC Dominance indicates that Bitcoin will outperform altcoins, whereas a bearish trend suggests the opposite.
Currently, BTC Dominance is moving within a parallel channel driving its bullish movement. It has reached the weekly supply level and is now approaching the monthly supply level. I expect BTC Dominance to hit this monthly supply level at the top of the channel, experience rejection, and start moving lower. Eventually, I anticipate it will break below the entire channel, signaling a large influx of capital into altcoins. This shift has the potential to create significant returns for altcoin investors.
I believe this scenario is likely during the 2025 bull cycle, so be prepared to build generational wealth.
LONG OPPORTUNITY FOR BTCUSD AND ETHUSDFor a while now BTC on the higher timeframe has been bullish. A similar opportunity is presenting itself today, off weekly order block and daily IRL towards Weekly external range liquidity. With SMT between BTC and ETH on the daily Chart and a 4H CISD, I'll be looking for longs especially if the 15min TF is able to shift market structure to the upside after 4H CISD is created and respected.
US100 Trade LogTrade Setup (30/10/2024) - US100 Long on 1H FVG with Market Open Liquidity Grab
1. Setup: Enter long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) if there is a wick rejection signal on market open, suggesting a liquidity grab.
2. Entry strategy:
- Target: 1:2 RRR.
- Risk: 1% of account.
- Confirmation: Look for a sharp wick into the FVG at market open, showing a liquidity grab and immediate recovery back into the zone.
3. Stop-loss and take-profit:
- Place stop-loss just below the wick low to protect against further downside.
- Set take-profit at twice the stop-loss distance, aiming for a 1:2 RRR.
4. Additional considerations:
- Be mindful of volatility and spreads at market open.
- Ensure wick rejection confirms strong demand within the FVG before entering.
This setup aims to capture upside momentum following a liquidity grab at market open, using the 1H FVG as a support zone for entry.
Enhanced Parallel Channel Tool with Fib Levels - AVAX Example AVAX on the Rise with TradingView’s Enhanced Parallel Channel Tool 🎯🚀💹
Hey fellow traders!
Today, I'm diving with excitement into AVAX and how TradingView's new Parallel Channel tool levels up my (our) analysis.
TradingView continues to prove why it's the #1 platform for traders, with new features that keep us ahead of the game! For me personally this extra steps, updates and tools are Very important as they help me do better with analysis and trading.
AVAX Example:
Right now, AVAX is showing promising action within an ascending parallel channel, with strong support around $24.32 and a secondary layer at $22.97. This channel setup, now enhanced with additional levels on TradingView, is giving us a clearer picture of potential price movements. By activating these extra levels, we get a deeper, more nuanced view of the trend—ideal for pinpointing resistance and support points with precision.
The new option to add my favorite Fib 0,618 level is AMAZING!
To enable these new levels on your chart:
Open the Parallel Channel settings.
Go to the Style tab.
Check the boxes to activate more levels, allowing you to customize coefficients, colors, thickness, and line styles.
With this upgraded tool, I will be targeting $31.79 as the next key resistance level for AVAX. If bullish momentum holds, we could see a push up to the $40 mark at the top of the channel. It’s a promising setup, and I'll be entering this trade with excitement!
FXPROFESSOR 202:
Personally i have added 0.618 level (on both sides) and you can see how well the chart works. Keep in mind that for this structure (parallel channel) the 0.50 level remains the Key Level on drawing the channel: There is no valid channel unless the middle level does not have a confirmation acting as S/R/S or R/S/R.
A massive shoutout to the TradingView team for continually refining these tools, setting industry standards, and empowering us to perform better analysis. This is why TradingView remains the best choice for serious traders everywhere. I am proud to be part of this community, right here and always.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Explore TradingView’s Latest Channel Tool Update: www.tradingview.com
XAU! 11/1 ! Gold price adjustment - NF newsXAU / USD trend forecast November1, 2024
Gold price (XAU/USD) regains some ground on Friday, supported by US election uncertainties and Middle East tensions, which boost demand for the safe-haven asset. However, rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar may limit gains. Traders now await the US October employment report, with key data on Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings. A strong report could reduce expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially weighing on gold.
Gold price adjusted down - market reduced FOMO. Waiting for NF news to officially return to the price range of 2700 - 2720
/// SELL XAU : zone 2769-2772
SL: 2777
TP: 50 - 200 - 300 pips (2742)
Safe and profitable trading
Transitioning from Successful Demo Trading to Live TradingHow to Avoid Choking Your Live Account
The journey from demo trading to live trading is often more challenging than most traders anticipate. The image you’ve shared captures the key steps of this transition—from mastering a demo account to navigating the psychological hurdles of live trading. While demo trading is an essential part of a trader’s education, live trading introduces emotional and psychological challenges that many traders find difficult to manage. Let’s dive into the key stages and explore how to transition successfully without choking your live account.
1. Successful Demo Trading
At the start, many traders achieve consistent results in demo trading. In a demo environment, there’s no real money at stake, which allows for calm, calculated decisions and plenty of room for mistakes. It’s here that you develop and fine-tune your strategy without the fear of financial loss. However, the ease of success in a demo account can create a false sense of security about your readiness for live trading.
2. Transition to Live Trading
Moving from demo to live trading is a crucial moment. Many traders believe that because they are profitable in demo trading, they are automatically ready to replicate that success in a live account. However, the difference between the two is the introduction of real money and real emotions. The fear of loss and the pressure to protect your capital can interfere with the clear thinking that guided you in the demo environment.
3. Overthinking Begins
In live trading, overthinking is a common problem that often creeps in early. Unlike demo trading, where decisions flow effortlessly, live trading introduces hesitation. Traders tend to question their strategies, second-guess their analysis, and get caught up in minute details that don’t necessarily matter. The fear of making a wrong decision becomes amplified when real money is on the line, often causing traders to overanalyze market movements.
4. Paralysis by Analysis
As overthinking intensifies, traders can fall into what is known as paralysis by analysis. This happens when you analyze the market so extensively that you become too hesitant to make any trading decisions. Constantly doubting your entry points, second-guessing signals, or being afraid of missing out can lead to missed opportunities and a lack of trading action. At this stage, fear dominates logic, and traders may either overtrade or avoid trading altogether.
5. Trading Failure
Inevitably, if you allow overthinking and paralysis to take control, it can lead to trading failure. This failure isn’t necessarily about blowing your account—it’s about failing to follow your trading plan, succumbing to emotional decisions, and deviating from the strategy that made you successful in demo trading. Fear of losing, coupled with poor decision-making, can lead to a downward spiral.
6. Need for Strategy
When traders hit a rough patch, they realize the importance of sticking to a well-defined strategy. A consistent strategy should not only outline entry and exit points but also incorporate risk management, stop-loss placement, and clear goals. At this stage, traders must revisit their demo strategies and adapt them to the emotional reality of live trading. Importantly, the need for strategy isn’t just about the technical side—it’s about managing emotions and sticking to the plan under pressure.
7. Implementing Strategies
Having a solid strategy is one thing, but implementing it consistently in live trading is a different challenge. This stage is where traders must learn to trust their strategy, let go of the fear of losses, and maintain emotional discipline. It’s crucial to trade small positions at the beginning to minimize the emotional impact of any losses. Gradually scaling up as confidence grows allows for emotional adjustment without the added pressure of large financial risk.
8. Successful Live Trading
The final stage is successful live trading, where traders have mastered not just the technical aspects of their strategy but the emotional and psychological elements as well. Success in live trading is marked by consistent execution of a plan, disciplined risk management, and the ability to stay calm during market fluctuations. At this point, you’ve learned to manage your emotions, handle losses gracefully, and take profits when the time is right.
Tips to Avoid Choking Your Live Account
Start Small: When transitioning from demo to live trading, start with a small account. Even if you’re profitable in demo trading, your psychological state will change when real money is at stake. Trade with smaller positions until you feel comfortable managing your emotions in a live setting.
Have a Trading Plan: Stick to the same strategies that worked in your demo account. A well-defined trading plan will give you clear guidelines to follow, even when emotions run high. Make sure your plan includes risk management and contingency plans for when trades don’t go your way.
Control Emotions: Live trading introduces a range of emotions—fear, greed, anxiety, and excitement. The key to success is emotional discipline. Set your stop losses and take profits before entering a trade and avoid changing your plan mid-trade based on emotion.
Risk Management: Risking too much on a single trade is one of the fastest ways to lose your live account. Never risk more than 1-2% of your total account balance on any trade. This will help you stay calm and reduce the emotional pressure to win every trade.
Accept Losses: Losing trades are part of the game. Even professional traders have losing trades, but they manage those losses with proper risk management and emotional control. Accept that losses are a part of trading and avoid chasing the market or trying to win back losses impulsively.
Regular Reflection: After each trading session, take time to reflect on your trades. What went well? What could have been improved? This reflection will help you adjust and improve your strategy over time.
Conclusion
Transitioning from demo trading to live trading is more about managing emotions than it is about mastering the technical aspects of trading. While the technical skills you develop in demo trading are essential, emotional discipline is what separates successful live traders from those who struggle. By starting small, sticking to your strategy, and managing your risk, you can avoid choking your live account and set yourself up for long-term success in the markets.
KPGEL Diwali Pick 2024Stock Analysis and Trade Setup
This chart shows the stock breaking out of a long-term downward channel, suggesting a potential trend reversal:
• Bullish Setup : The price has broken above the descending channel, indicating bullish momentum. A strong consolidation above the support level around 631.1 could confirm this breakout. If the price maintains this upward trend, the next resistance at 716.75 would be the primary target, followed by further gains if momentum persists.
• Bearish Scenario : If the price fails to hold above 631.1, there could be a retest of lower levels. Watch for a potential short entry below the key support level at 525.9, as a breakdown could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
The RSI indicates room for further upside, and increasing volume supports the bullish breakout. Monitor these levels closely for entry and exit signals.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
POST House of Pi November 2024Bitcoin Monthly House of Pi range for November 2024 using Sacred Geometry-Fruit of Life by dgtrd as the blueprint, along with Circular Fib, to identify overall Pi range and Regular Fib w/Pi & Phi to find monthly Higher and Lower Pi Pockets. Dollars above as below as always, Make More Minimal
AWHCL Trade setup for Diwali 2024 Stock Analysis and Trade Setup
The chart shows a clear range with key levels and potential trade setups:
• Long Setup : A breakout above the first resistance level around 818.4 would indicate bullish momentum, targeting 846.8 as the first level and potentially extending towards 902.7. Enter a long position only after a confirmed breakout above 818.4 with strong buying volume.
• Short Setup : If the price fails to hold above the resistance and drops below the 666.25 support level, it could signal a bearish trend continuation. A breakdown below 666.25 could lead to a significant downside move, possibly reaching the next support around 560.2.
The price is currently testing the resistance area and might consolidate before choosing a direction. Monitor closely for breakout signals or rejection patterns at these key levels to confirm the trade direction.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
wait NEW ATH 2771 ! positive from the market XAU ⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance
⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Expectations of a more moderate rate cut by the Federal Reserve and concerns about deficit spending after the US election should help support US bond yields and the USD. Additionally, a positive sentiment in global equity markets is keeping Gold prices in check. Investors also appear cautious ahead of key US data releases this week, including the Advance Q3 GDP, PCE Price Index, and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Break trendline H1 - buyers push the price to continue waiting for a new ATH in the near future at 2771
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2771 - $2773 SL $2778
TP1: $2765
TP2: $2750
TP3: $2740
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2742 - $2739 SL $2735
TP1: $2750
TP2: $2760
TP3: $2771
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
Bad earnings, catalyst delay, and TA RESET.All indicators point in one direction as the stock continues to fall after the initial good catalyst but has been marred by more bad news, with stochastic heading down and other indicators now also pointing in the direction of a bearish move, support areas remain key.
Platinum: Relevance in Latin AmericaPlatinum (Ticker AT: PLATINUM) , a highly versatile precious metal, has experienced considerable price volatility, influenced by economic and geopolitical factors, as well as changes in industrial demand, especially in the automotive sector. Unlike gold, which is seen primarily as a safe haven, platinum serves a dual function: as an investment asset and as a key input in a number of industries, particularly in automotive and clean energy technologies. In recent years, its demand has been driven by the transition to more sustainable energy and low-emission technologies.
Industrial Use of Platinum and its Growing Demand in the Automotive Sector
Platinum group metals, such as platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium and osmium, possess unique properties, including high corrosion resistance, catalytic efficiency and electrical conductivity. These characteristics make them indispensable for applications in industries such as automotive, electronics, medical devices and jewelry. In the automotive context, catalytic converters made from platinum and platinum-based metals are crucial for reducing pollutant emissions, especially in diesel vehicles. Increasing environmental regulation in regions such as Europe and Asia has driven their demand, as these converters meet increasingly stringent emission standards. However, the transition to electric vehicles could reduce their use in the long term, generating uncertainty in future demand.
In Latin America, this trend is also relevant, especially in countries that depend on the export of precious metals and seek to diversify their resource base. In addition, in countries such as Brazil and Mexico, where the automotive industry is key, the adoption of cleaner vehicles could open new opportunities for the use of PGMs in hybrid and low-emission technologies.
Platinum Supply and Production Factors in Latin America and the World
Platinum production is concentrated in South Africa and Russia, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in supply due to geopolitical tensions and local factors. In South Africa, labor problems and a lack of investment in mines have generated uncertainty in supply, while sanctions imposed on Russia have also reduced the availability of this metal on the world market. Latin America, while not a major platinum producer, has potential to explore the use of PGMs in industrial and clean technology sectors.
In addition, Latin American companies could benefit from the technology and investments of multinational companies in refining and manufacturing processes using PGMs, thus strengthening the regional supply chain. Chile and Peru, with their advanced mining sectors, have opportunities to diversify into PGMs, especially considering their proximity to the U.S. and Asian markets.
Platinum as an Investment in Times of Uncertainty
Although platinum is not typically viewed as a safe haven asset like gold, it has proven to be a reliable asset for asset diversification in times of economic uncertainty. Monetary policies in large economies, such as the United States, can have a significant impact on its price, as a reduction in interest rates could increase demand for precious metals. In Latin America, institutional investors are increasingly interested in PGMs as alternative assets in a context of volatile markets, considering their appreciation potential.
Clean Energy Innovation: New Opportunities for Platinum in Latin America
The transition to renewable energy offers a positive outlook for platinum, particularly in the development of fuel cells for hydrogen vehicles and in electrolysis processes to produce green hydrogen. This emerging demand could benefit Latin American countries seeking to develop sustainable technologies. Brazil and Chile, for example, have begun to explore green hydrogen and could increase their consumption of platinum for these purposes in the coming years, given their interest in leading the region in clean energy production.
Technical Analysis
Platinum (Ticker AT: PLATINUM),since last year has been moving in a sideways range between $1,093.33 and $838.34 having peak moments this year on May 20, generating a support supported twice in August and September respectively around $908 very close to the control point (POC) of $922. At the moment the asset has evolved downwards due to the fall in demand for vehicles as we have previously mentioned, it was oversold and the RSI confirmed it on the 29th so the price corrected to its trading area up to $984.65 yesterday. Currently the price is moving positive and the RSI is at 48%. Given that the delta pressure zone is bullish it would not be unusual to see it move to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement around $1011.10. If demand for this product increases in the aforementioned sectors it is possible that the price could regain its last high of $1,093.33.
Top companies in the PGM sector
As a side note it is important to review what moves are being made by the major companies in this sector globally. Among the prominent companies in the PGM market are:
1. Glencore (Ticker AT: GLEN.UK) - Annual revenue: USD 255.98 billion. Producer of platinum, palladium and rhodium with operations in Africa.
2. BASF SE (Ticker AT: BAS.GE) - Annual revenues: USD 72.172 billion. Leader in emission control technologies.
3. Heraeus Group (Private) - Annual revenues: USD 27.7 billion. Specialist in catalysts and electronic materials.
4. Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.ME) - Annual revenues: USD 14.4 billion. Producer of nickel, copper, palladium and platinum.
5. Impala Platinum Holdings Limited (IMP:JNB) - Annual revenues: USD 9.03 billion. With operations mainly in South Africa and Zimbabwe.
6. Eastern Platinum Limited (ELR.TO) - Annual revenues: USD 8.18 billion. Platinum producer in the Bushveld Complex.
7. Northam Platinum Holdings Limited (NPH.JO) - Annual revenues: USD 6.7 billion. Operates some of PGM's largest mines.
8. Johnson Matthey (Ticker AT: JMAT.UK) - Annual revenues: US$5 billion. Innovator in emission and energy storage technologies.
9. Sibanye-Stillwater (JSE:SSW) - Annual revenues: $3.3 billion. PGM miner in South Africa and the United States.
10. African Rainbow Minerals Limited (JSE.ARI/OTC - AFBOF) - Annual revenues: US$1.04 billion. Engaged in PGM mining and processing in South Africa.
Platinum and PGMs represent a strategic opportunity for Latin America, both in terms of investment and diversification of key industries. Their growing demand in low-emission technologies and clean energy, as well as their stability in volatile markets, reinforces their importance as an asset in the region.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
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EURUSD holding Still currently in this sell on EU however I forsee a short spike down then upward movement from FVG mitigation therefore I will consider closing if TP is not hit before 14:30 SA time Johannesburg.
Anything can happen but non impulsive moves are best, don't trade the news, trade after... If there are opportunities.
Gold, dailyGold reached a fresh all-time high on 31 October as the outcome of next week’s elections remains highly uncertain and demand for havens continued. The uptrend is very strong but doesn’t currently seem to be as overheated as it had been in the second quarter. The value areas between the main moving averages haven’t generally expanded notably in recent weeks although the slow stochastic displays a clear overbought signal.
The obvious long-term target is $3,000, a round number which coincides fairly closely with the 161.8% monthly Fibonacci extension. It might take some time for the price to reach there: currently gold looks vulnerable in the short term to a better than expected NFP on 1 November, a scenario which seems moderately likely given the low consensus for total nonfarm.
Based on last week’s movements, $2,715 is a possible short-term area of support. The 20 SMA is about to reach there within the next few days. $2,640 around the 50 SMA from Bands is also in view as a support. For now, it seems very unlikely to see a move back to the 100% monthly Fibonacci extension around $2,545, but that’d be possible next week if the NFP is strong and in the unlikely scenario of Donald Trump delivering a particularly solid win.
Euro-dollar, dailyApart from slightly disappointing American GDP, euro-dollar has also made gains in recent days on stronger than expected growth in the eurozone generally and in major national economies. Preliminary German inflation for October rose more than expected to 2%.
Relatively high volume of buying and a move out of oversold by the slow stochastic after 24 October’s upward engulfing candlestick would usually suggest an ongoing bounce, but that looks more difficult with the 200 SMA only slightly above the current price. If there’s a break above there, the target would probably be the value area between the 50 and 100 SMAs slightly below $1.10.
A clear break back to $1.07 and the 100% weekly Fibonacci retracement doesn’t seem at all favourable for now. However, a positive surprise from the NFP could push the price back to its recent starting point near $1.076 at least temporarily.
SOLUSD !!Solana trimmed gains and traded below the $175 support zone. SOL price is now approaching the $165 support and might bounce back in the near term.
SOL price started a fresh decline after it struggled near the $185 zone against the US Dollar.
The price is now trading below $172 and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $172 on the hourly chart of the SOL/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
The pair could start a decent upward movement if it stays above the $165 and $162 support levels.