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Beyond Technical Analysis

BTC Possible HTF HL Creation 2BTC Possible HTF Creation 2 (update from first post): Chart inverted; analysis below as if it weren't an inverted chart: 1) Weak highs as there isn't an SFP or some kind of big wick candle; 2) Price did break below a significant part of the HL structure but not the full structure (last HL hasn't been broken): - The part it broke down below isn't outstanding enough to produce a big breakdown (my intuition tells me). It isn't a MSB as the last HL is still intact and the structure it did break below I think can't produce a big downmove (which then would create a MSB if it happened but I think would be weak and shortlived, likely to be capped at that outstanding low at 95k). - Price didn't instantly break below structure, it first made a LH (April 10) which weakens the downmove significantly to where my intuition tells me there now can't be a full MSB being formed. ------------------------------ No significance at highs (no SFP) nor big previous high being hit so no reason for trend shift. Price did break some significant structure but not fully and not fast enough: it first produced a LH before breaking below it. that's key here: if it was a breakdown in one go then price would have broken below the structure very close to the structure making the structure way stronger in resistance and therefore the likelyhood of a real breakdown way higher. That price is consolidating now (so not going fast anymore) is fine: horizontality creates space for a move in either way. But the fact that price didn't break below the structure in one go is the important part which I think cancels out the breakdown. Just looking at it simply, pure intuition. This will never break down as that structure which it broke down below isn't outstanding enough and there is not enough verticality (no strength). I would never short this. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- And now coming out of the inverted chart: If I would never short this this means I would never buy this at 82k. But the HTF HL, I want to say it as an ego thing: will higly likely be an SFP of the Monday April 7 lowest low and I have put my 100% allocation on it (might take out some to buy the ETH lowest low of June 2022 as these moves would probably go together and ETH is the better investment if you want to make bigger profits) This ego thing is a traders' mistake as you can never be 100% sure in trading so you should never put a limit order on a level in advance, but I'm a young guy and me buying the lowest low of the HTF HL with great potential I could be right is a risk I'm willing to take as the benefit of me being right (having THAT amount of conviction with serious high level analysis backing that conviction) would just prove to me that I'm one of the best in the world in trading BTC, and this mental benefit will flow into daily ordinary life as I would then have proof of this 'status' (forgive me people, I know better but I'm still young and I know having this ego thing now will create a laugh + will make me happy in the future) + gives me more rest to focus on my studies. I accept the traders' mistake as this is a HTF HL environment, not an ordinary area in between.
by EyyJasper
BTCUSDT - Trade Log BTCUSDT – Weekly Bullish Outlook Weekly Context: Price has held the weekly Fair Value Gap and bounced off the 50 EMA, with clean wick rejections signaling strong buyer demand. The recent pullback (~32% from ATH) remains within historical correction bounds, and the tiny current retrace (<1%) suggests low downside risk. A triple bottom on the weekly RSI cycle around 40 further supports a bullish reversal. Trade Plan (Long): – Entry: Add longs near the weekly FVG / 50 EMA (around 75–87k). – Stop: Place just below the FVG low (≈70k), risking ~5% of account. – Target: First at 100k (psychological level), then previous ATH region for a 1:3+ RRR. Bullish Catalysts: • Weekly 50 EMA has only closed below twice—support intact. • Weekly FVG wick signals have historically delivered high-probability bounces. • Triple bottom on weekly RSI signals major capitulation is complete. • Macro backdrop (equities & gold) remains positive for BTC. Stay alert for any decisive weekly close below the EMA—until then, the bulls remain in control. 🚀
Long
by Fondera
2
XRPUSDT – ETF Hype or Exit Liquidity Parade?“If BTC sneezes, XRP gets hospitalized.” 🧠 Market Context Price: $2.07 Resistance Zone: $2.15 – $2.18 Support Zone: $2.00 – $1.88 POC (4H): $2.41 — where leveraged hopes go to die Volume: Fading across 15m and 4H Delta: -363K (15m) – strong seller aggression OI: +578K → rising with price stuck = bait 🔬 Order Flow Breakdown OI up, price flat → classic smart money unloading on retail Strong Delta divergence: buyers being absorbed Heatmap shows stop clusters below $2.00 BTC weakness threatens every bullish setup in altcoins 📰 News Catalysts (Legit, Not Hopium) ETF Speculation Only. ProShares eyeing XRP futures ETF, but no approval or timeline confirmed. SEC Case Still Open. Appeal paused. No clarity. Regulatory uncertainty continues to hang over XRP. Options Data is Bearish. Put/call ratios show downside protection is the market's priority — not upside bets. 📌 Translation: News flow does NOT support a sustainable move higher. ⚔️ Trading Plan Direction: Short Entry Zone: $2.15 – $2.18 Target 1: $2.00 Target 2: $1.88 Stop Loss: $2.25 Leverage: 25x – 50x (adjust for sanity) 🔁 Conditions for Execution XRP fails to break $2.18 on rising OI BTC stays below $84K or loses momentum Volume remains low and delta continues negative ⚠️ BTC: The Elephant in the Room BTC POC at $84.6K OI decreasing while price stalls If BTC breaks down, XRP will not survive the shock — it will lead the dump among majors. TL;DR: “XRP is bait. BTC is the trigger.” 🎭 Final Take from Pôncio “They’re selling dreams of ETFs while quietly preparing stop hunts. Order Flow is screaming exit, not moon. If BTC goes south, XRP follows — fast and ugly.” 📉 Summary Table Signal - Status VPVR Resistance - ✅ Confirmed @ $2.15–2.41 OI Behavior - 🚨 Bullish trap Delta - ❌ Negative and aggressive Volume - ❌ Weak and fading Macro News - ❌ No support for pump BTC Impact - 🧨 High correlation risk 📛 #XRPUSDT #OrderFlow #SmartMoney #CryptoAnalysis #BTCImpact #DeltaDivergence 📉 Trade like the institutions. Or feed them.
Short
by NunoSid
1
SUIUSDT – Liquidity Build-Up or Just a Beautiful Trap?“If you’re long here, you’re not early. You’re just lunch.” 🧠 Institutional Context Strong POC at $2.06 Price consolidating above the value area, with multiple rejections at $2.18–2.22 Open Interest rising while price stalls → leveraged longs stacking = trap in progress Delta staying negative → buyers getting absorbed, not rewarded Volume declining = no real demand, just retail chasing momentum 🔬 Order Flow Breakdown Delta (15min & 4H) shows clear lack of follow-through on buy pressure OI added +600K recently with no breakout = clear liquidity build-up Heatmap reveals liquidation clusters below $2.04, with vacuum down to $1.88 BTC sitting on a cliff — a flush there takes everything with it 🎯 Trading Plan Direction: Short Entry: $2.18 – $2.22 Target 1: $2.04 Target 2: $1.88 Stop Loss: $2.33 Leverage: 25x – 50x Trigger conditions: – BTC drops below $84K – SUI fails to break $2.22 on rising OI and negative Delta – Volume remains dry 🧨 Final Thoughts from Pôncio “This isn’t strength. It’s a funeral procession with confetti.” Everyone’s bullish. Everyone’s positioned. Everyone’s about to get slapped. Summary: Smart money is already out. Retail’s stuck buying into resistance. And when this drops, it won’t bounce — it’ll vanish. 📉 #SUIUSDT #CryptoFutures #OrderFlow #SmartMoney #DeltaMatters 📛 Trade like a sociopath. Or fund someone who does.
Short
by NunoSid
1
New Uptrend Forming — CADCHF Buyers May Be Stepping InCADCHF 12H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🔍 🧠 New Uptrend Forming — Buyers May Be Stepping In Below 0.59345 OVERALL TREND 📈 SHIFTING TO UPTREND — After weeks of falling prices, CADCHF is showing signs of turning around. Momentum might be changing in favor of buyers. 🔴RESISTANCE LEVELS 🔴 0.64072 — Pivot High | Seller's Stoploss 🔴 0.63787 — Sell Zone II (Lower high) 🔴 0.63211 — Sell Zone I (First trouble spot for buyers) 🎯TARGETS FOR BUYERS (TP = Take Profit) 🎯 0.62920 — BUY ORDER & TP 4 🎯 0.61817 — BUY ORDER & TP 3 🎯 0.61191 — BUY ORDER & TP 2 | Mid-Pivot 🎯 0.60212 — BUY ORDER & TP 1 🟡SUPPORT LEVELS 🟡 0.59345 — First Buy Zone (current price) 🟡 0.59210 — Support Level 🟡 0.58598 — Buy Zone II (lower entry) 🟡 0.58482 — Minor Support 🟡 0.58310 — Pivot Low | Buyer's Stoploss 🤓WHAT THE CHART IS TELLING US Price recently bounced off 0.58310 — showing buyers are protecting this level Multiple buy orders are lined up between 0.58482 and 0.59345 If price moves above 0.60212, buyers may push toward 0.61817 or higher If price falls below 0.58310, the setup may no longer be valid TRADING IDEAS FOR BEGINNERS 🧭 📈 Look to buy if price stays above 0.58598 and moves toward 0.60212 📉 Avoid buying if price starts closing below 0.58310 👀 Watch the area between 0.59345 and 0.60212 — it could be the launchpad for the next move up 📋RECOMMENDED SETUPS SAFE APPROACH (Beginner-Friendly): — Buy Around: 0.58598 — Take Profit: 0.60212 / 0.61191 / 0.61817 — Stop Loss: Below 0.58310 QUICK SCALP OPTION (Faster Trades): — Buy on a bounce from 0.59210 or 0.58598 — Target: 0.60212 — Stop Loss: Just under 0.58310 “Be patient. Be consistent. Be disciplined. That’s how you grow.”
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
Netflix Pops as Earnings Top Estimates. Are Tariffs a Threat?Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX dropped its first-quarter earnings Thursday after market close and the headlines practically wrote themselves: a record net income, an earnings beat, and a 3% implied jump for the stock at the opening bell. All in a market where the Nasdaq is crying in the corner. But as always in markets, the big question isn’t “What happened?”—it’s “What could mess this up?” Ready, set, action: steep tariffs, Donald Trump, and the looming threat of a recession-fueled advertising freeze. Let’s break down the earnings binge before we channel surf over to the risk segment. Spoiler: Netflix is on a roll—but geopolitical static might still mess with the signal. 🎬 Netflix Hits Record Numbers The earnings season is picking up the pace. Netflix’s Q1 revenue hit $10.5 billion, up 13% from last year, with net income jumping to a record $2.9 billion. That’s a cool $600 million more than the same quarter last year—and a massive flex with earnings per share at $6.61. Wall Street was only expecting $5.71 a pop. More importantly, the company raised its full-year revenue forecast to the range of $43.5 billion and $44.5 billion. 💿 How Many New Subs? In case you're hunting for sub numbers moving forward—don’t bother. Netflix said last quarter they’re done reporting them quarterly. They’d rather focus on what “really matters”: revenue, operating margin, and ad growth. In Q4 2024, the final quarter with a subscriber growth update, the company pulled off its biggest user-count gain ever: 19 million new accounts , bringing the global total to over 300 million. Not a bad way to drop the mic and ghost the group chat. 🍿 The Ads Are Working. So Are the Price Hikes. In a move that would usually send churn metrics on a downhill slope, Netflix in January bumped its top-tier plan to $24.99/month in the US. Either that speaks volumes about content quality, or we’ve all collectively accepted that we’ll pay any price to avoid commercials. That said, ads are quietly becoming Netflix’s next big profit lever. After a rocky launch in late 2022, the ad-supported tier is now gaining serious traction. According to estimates, 43% of new US sign-ups in February 2025 opted for the ad-tier plan, up from 40% in January. Netflix expects to nearly double ad revenue this year. 📺 Is Netflix Recession-Proof? With interest rates high relative to four years ago, consumer wallets stretched, and geopolitical tension ratcheting up, Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters had to address the elephant in the earnings room: what happens if people stop spending? Streaming should survive the storm. As he put it, “Entertainment has historically been pretty resilient in tougher economic times.” Executives also noted that during downturns, people tend to seek value. Netflix, with its endless scroll, becomes the budget-friendly indulgence of choice. It’s hard to argue with that when you’re five episodes deep into a true-crime docuseries at 3 a.m. 👀 But Then There’s That Nagging Tariff Thing... While Netflix has so far been insulated from the direct hit of Trump’s revived trade war—most of its costs are content, not commodities—it’s not immune to broader market impact. Tariffs could rattle advertisers, especially if they trigger inflation spikes, slowdowns, or investor anxiety. Ad budgets are notoriously skittish in volatile times, and if there’s one thing advertisers hate more than bad CPMs, it’s uncertainty. Already, there's chatter that major brands are planning to trim digital spending heading into the second half of the year. Translation: if tariffs lead to an economic wobble, Netflix’s ad revenue (and by extension, its bullish earnings story) could face a tougher climb. 📢 Leadership Shuffle: No Drama, Just Strategy In other corporate news, Reed Hastings, the co-founder who brought us DVD mailers, quietly transitioned from executive chair to non-executive chair. It’s more ceremonial than sensational, but it marks a passing of the torch to the current co-CEOs, who clearly have things under control—if this earnings report is any indication. ❤️ Wall Street Loves It—for Now Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX shares are up 10% year to date, which looks especially shiny next to the Nasdaq’s NASDAQ:IXIC 16% drop. While tech has wobbled under tariff pressure and chip-stock drama , Netflix is moving in the opposite direction—proof that profitability, pricing power, and content diversity are still pulling in fresh capital inflows. But don’t get too comfortable. If tariff fears escalate or ad momentum stalls, Netflix may need to prove all over again that it’s more than just a pandemic darling turned pricing juggernaut. 🎥 Final Frame: Chill Now, but Keep One Eye on Macro Netflix’s Q1 numbers were promising — but that was just before Trump’s sweeping tariffs rattled global markets. Added levies, recession risk, and shifting ad budgets could all become plot twists in Netflix’s otherwise upbeat storyline. For now, though, it’s lights, camera, rally. Your turn: Are you still bullish on Netflix, or are Trump’s tariffs and economic drama changing your channel? Let us know what’s on your watchlist.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by TradingView
10
SOLUSDT – Final Ascent Before the Abyss?"If this isn’t a trap, then FTX is still solvent." 📈 THE SCENE: Solana’s looking bullish? Sure. So did Luna, Celsius, and Three Arrows before they became bedtime horror stories. Price: Hovering around $134.5, acting like it’s immune to gravity. VPVR: Volume cliff right below — there’s literally nothing until $128… then $118. POC: $132.8 — aka the spot where poor souls entered late, juiced on hopium and influencer tweets. 🧠 THE DATA (a.k.a. The Smoking Gun): OI climbing like it’s 2021, but without the bull market to back it. Delta positive, yet price stagnant = buyers getting absorbed harder than WeWork’s liquidity. Volume slowing = momentum fading = perfect setup for smart money to yank the rug. 📉 MACRO PERSPECTIVE (4H): What do we see? Long buildup without follow-through. Price crawling up while BTC is on thin ice. If Bitcoin sneezes, SOL's lungs collapse. BTC below $84K = SOL going back to $120s faster than CZ deletes a tweet. 🎯 TRADE IDEA: Short from $134.5–135.5 SL: $137.2 (because we respect market makers' yacht fund) TP1: $128 TP2: $118 Leverage? Whatever makes your palms sweat and your broker call your therapist. 💬 FINAL WORDS: “This rally feels about as real as Elizabeth Holmes’ biotech vision. Everyone’s long. Everyone’s confident. Everyone’s... about to get margin called.” Smart money isn’t buying this. They’re selling it... to you. And when they dump, it’s not a correction — it’s a funeral procession with fireworks.
Short
by NunoSid
BTC Possible HTF HL Creation We are however still in a downtrend and current area is the place for the new LH. We already have the SFP at the highs (thus, good for the LH formation) but this hasn't provided any downward move + MSB isn't possible anymore as it has taken too long. We could get a LH SFP though which I think will still create the downmove. The question I ask myself now: what if we don't get the LH SFP and go down first? This would then create the HTF HL I think, as price has no resistance but still breaks down + there's no short setup to be found. But: will it go back to the lowest low of 74k or will it stay above the blue line structure and form the low around 82k? If the lowest low was an SFP price wouldn't go back to the lowest low but now I don't know: big horizontality makes past structure weaker to where price can easily go through it but at the same time if there's no reason to break down why would it break down in such a big way (from 84k to 74k instead of 84k-82k)?
by EyyJasper
Netflix shines amid trade tensionsBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst, ActivTrades Record Results Amid Uncertain Times Netflix has kicked off 2025 with historic figures, showcasing its ability to grow even in a global environment marked by economic uncertainty and trade tensions. In the first quarter, the company reported a 25% increase in earnings per share, reaching $6.61—well above market expectations. Total revenue rose 12.5% year-over-year to $10.543 billion, and the forecast for the second quarter points to $11.035 billion, driven by price increases and sustained subscriber growth. Limited Impact from Tariffs Unlike many companies in the tech and entertainment sectors, Netflix has managed to avoid the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and the resulting market volatility. The company has not detected any direct negative repercussions on its business, reinforcing its status as a defensive option for investors during times of economic turbulence. Advertising: Moderate Growth with Potential While advertising revenues remain modest compared to subscription income, they slightly exceeded expectations this quarter. Monetizing its vast user base through advertising continues to be a priority for 2025. In this regard, the company aims to close the year with revenues between $43.5 and $44.5 billion and an operating margin of 29%. The Power of Original Content The appeal of Netflix’s content library remains its main competitive advantage. Original productions like Adolescence, which has become the third most-watched English-language series in history with 124 million views, have been key to its strong financial performance. International titles such as the French series Ad Vitam and Back in Action starring Cameron Diaz and Jamie Foxx have also contributed. The second quarter also looks promising with the return of iconic franchises like Stranger Things, Wednesday, and the conclusion of Squid Game. Positive Market Reaction Following the earnings release, Netflix shares rose 5.2%, reaching $1,024 per share. Year-to-date, they have gained 9.2%, positioning Netflix as one of the most solid performers in the battered entertainment sector. Technical Analysis Looking at the chart, since July 2022, the stock has moved through various institutional accumulation zones between 2023 and 2024. The current accumulation zone ranges between $810 and the $1,065.50 level reached in February. Previous highs, now acting as support, are around $688.36. The RSI currently sits in the mid-range following the bullish push that began on April 7. Moving average crossovers indicate some indecision, as the stock is testing a former resistance zone. With Easter ahead, it is likely that the stock will remain range-bound through the end of the month and fail to break this resistance level. Currently, the stock is trading in the middle of the accumulation channel. Due to low volume and downward pressure below this midpoint, prices may remain sideways unless renewed interest emerges—something unlikely if Europe, Canada, and others impose new tariffs on tech firms (which they haven’t yet done). The inconsistency of Trump’s tariff policy does not fully address the tax waivers enjoyed by U.S. tech firms, which allow them to avoid sharing profits in Europe. Should these waivers be challenged, companies like Netflix could be affected. The current Point of Control (POC) is well below the two accumulation zones forming the long-term bullish channel, which is somewhat concerning. If regulatory changes occur, the stock could retreat to the lower part of the current accumulation zone—possibly breaking through to its support level. However, if no tariff conflict materializes in the sector, the stock may surge to new highs next quarter due to a strong portfolio structure. Conclusion: Solid Outlook, But Caution Advised Netflix has once again demonstrated its resilience in the face of complex macroeconomic conditions, delivering record financial results in Q1 2025. While other companies in the sector are being hit by tariff-related volatility, Netflix remains steady thanks to its strong content catalog, diversified revenue strategy, and stable global user base. However, technical analysis calls for caution: the stock is facing a key resistance level and could come under bearish pressure if new tech tariffs are introduced by Europe or Canada. In the absence of such risks, the stock has the potential to reach new highs next quarter. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by ActivTrades
100+ Pips on the Table — CHFJPY Just Flashed a Buy SignalCHFJPY DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 🕵🏽‍♂️ 🧠 Strategy Spotlight: CHFJPY's Uptrend Has One Last Launchpad OVERALL TREND 📈 UPTREND — Bullish structure with consistent higher highs and higher lows forming since March 2025. 📉RESISTANCE 🔴 180.070 — SELL STOPLOSS | PIVOT HIGH 🔴 179.705 — RESISTANCE (MAJOR) 🔴 179.339 → 177.862 — SELL ORDER RANGE 🔴 177.014 — RESISTANCE (PROXIMAL) 🔴 175.526 — RESISTANCE (MINOR) 📊ENTRIES & TARGETS 🎯 177.115 — BUY ORDER & TP4 🎯 174.428 — BUY ORDER & TP3 🎯 172.684 — BUY ORDER & TP2 🎯 170.173 — BUY ORDER & TP1 📈SUPPORT 🟡 167.606 — SUPPORT (PROXIMAL) 🟡 167.505 → 166.0375 — BUY ORDER RANGE 🟡 165.858 — SUPPORT (MAJOR) 🟡 165.299 — BUY STOPLOSS | PIVOT LOW 🤓STRUCTURAL NOTES Recent candle wicked above 175.52600 (minor resistance) but failed to close strong — indicating hesitation or seller defense High confluence at the 177.11–177.86 zone with both pivot highs and active sell orders Uptrend structure still intact unless price breaks below 170.17392 with volume and closes under 167.06957 Volume and momentum required to reclaim 177.86 and push toward major resistance at 180.07 TRADE OUTLOOK 🔎 📈 Active Long Bias above 170.17 (TP1) with bullish targets toward TP4 @ 177.11 📉 Bearish setup only activates if price fails to reclaim 175.52 and decisively breaks below 170.17 👀 Watch for reaction at 175.52 (Minor Resistance) — potential rejection could trigger short-term pullback to TP2 @ 172.68 🧪STRATEGY RECOMMENDATION CONSERVATIVE APPROACH (Trend-Following): — Buy Entry: 170.17 — TP Levels: 172.68 / 174.42 / 177.11 — SL: Below 167.06 HIGH-RISK REVERSAL SCALP: — Sell Order @ 175.52 or 177.11 — TP: 172.68 / 170.17 — SL: Above 177.86 “Discipline | Consistency | PAY -tience”
Long
by ProfessorCEWard
Ethereum bottom 14 May 2025 -V1Ethereum has defied all logic in 2025 so far. The ether is packed with good news and none of them have been impacting the down trend it is currently on. Ethereum is currently on 2021 support and very close to 2018 resistance. I think I found what is making it so bearish. This cycle has happened 4 times before in ETH's life. V1 = version 1 = the last time Ethereum has that cycle in his life. Or her life to be more precise. Unfortunately Ethereum is a woman going by her chart.
INDEX:ETHUSD
by Eleanze-Leena
EURUSD (2W) | TECHNICAL ANALYSISChart Date: April 17, 2025 | Timeframe: 2-Week | Pair: EUR/USD KEY LEVELS (RESISTANCE & SUPPORT) Pivot High (Stop-Loss): 1.14950 Resistance (Major): 1.14154 Support I (Proximal): 1.05166 Support I (Distal): 1.04072 Support (Proximal): 0.98605 Support (Major): 0.97500 Support (Distal): 0.95936 CURVE ANALYSIS 🧾 Sell Order: 1.13982 → 1.12022 Sell TP 1: 1.08291 Sell TP 2 (Mid Pivot): 1.05155 Sell TP 3: 1.02846 Sell TP 4: 0.99278 Buy Order: 0.98421 → 0.96340 Pivot Low (Stop-Loss): 0.95360 TRADE OUTLOOK 📉 (SHORT BIAS) Price is deep within a 2W hidden institutional supply zone Multiple pivot highs intersect resistance at 1.13982 and 1.14950 DOWNWARD TREND confirmed ✔️ If price fails to close above 1.14950, short setups are favored with confidence High RRR opportunity present on rejections below 1.13982 or 1.12022 Targets: 1.08291, 1.05155, 1.02846, 0.99278 ENTRY PLAN 🧠 | TRADE IDEA Wait for bearish engulfing or strong rejection below 1.13982 Place entry below 1.12022 with SL above 1.14950 Scale out at 1.08291 (TP1), then trail toward TP4 RISK MANAGEMENT 🎯 Sell SL: 1.14950 Buy SL: 0.95360 Use ATR to confirm volatility threshold before entry Session bias: Use London/NY overlap for execution SUMMARY: SHORT SETUP INSTITUTIONAL ZONE 📉 If 0.64086 (hidden institutional supply) holds, and price does not close above 1.14950, we are in a prime high-probability reversal zone. This sets up a powerful bearish swing opportunity targeting 4 support layers, anchored by institutional demand between 0.97500 - 0.95360. 💡 "Discipline | Consistency | PAY -tience"
Short
by ProfessorCEWard
Trading mistakes and how to fix themToday we’re starting a series on the main mistakes in trading. Feel free to ask questions in the comments and share your own tips and life hacks! Let’s get started: The mistakes are always the same, and they haven't changed over time. People traded in 1925 the same way they do now. They made the same typical mistakes then as they do today. The reason is simple — human psychology hasn’t changed. Trading is a battle with your own inner demons. I have made a huge number of mistakes, killed countless nerve cells, and lost a lot of money — that's why I truly hope this and the upcoming posts will help you at least a little and save you some pain. Mistake #1 No Trading Plan. Trading "by feel" without clear rules for entry, exit, and risk management. Treat trading like a business. Because that’s exactly what it is: your business. And as with any other business, success is only possible with a clear strategy (How much do I want to earn? How will I do it? What do I need? How much capital do I need? Why can I earn? What is my edge over others?), a deep understanding of the subject (study books and the experience of successful traders), persistence, patience, capital management, risk management, continuous analysis and adaptation of your trading strategy, and long-term thinking — focusing on a series of trades rather than any single success or failure. Losses are part of the business. Accept them. Do not identify yourself with your trades. Mistakes happen in any business. When building your trading plan, always think: "This trade can be a losing one." This shifts your mindset immediately — you start thinking about how much you can afford to lose without blowing up your account or experiencing heavy stress. Always set a stop loss immediately after opening a position. Limit your losses right away to a level you’re mentally comfortable with. If you get hit emotionally, it could take a long time to recover — and possibly deal with stress-related health issues. So what do we do? We create a detailed trading plan — both long-term and daily. Daily Plan: It doesn’t matter what timeframe you trade on — even if it’s 5 minutes. You should immediately mark your levels: Where will you buy? Where will you sell? Where is your stop loss? What position size? Will you add to the position or not? What will you do if the market opens down, up, sideways, or diagonally? The trading plan should cover all open and planned positions. Long-Term Plan: I make a plan for the coming year. It looks more like a business plan: How much capital do I have? How much can I theoretically earn? How will I earn it? Will I reinvest or withdraw profits, and how often? What are the commission costs (maybe it’s time to switch brokers)? What is the maximum size I can open per instrument? What is the maximum total exposure I can afford (especially if using leverage)? What are the tax implications? I usually review this plan once a month or as needed. Mistake #2 Lack of Discipline in Following the Trading Plan Great, you have a trading plan — now the task is simply not to break it. Solution: 1. Once again — trading is your business! Treat it that way. Don’t turn trading into a casino. 2. Before each trade, ask yourself: Why am I entering this position? or Why am I exiting this position? If you can't clearly and logically explain it — then don't enter the trade. Answers like "someone told me," "I saw a signal," "I feel it," or "I hope" — are NOT acceptable. 3. Create a professional trading environment: No distractions around you. No eating at your trading desk (drinks are allowed). No loud, distracting music. Keep your workspace clean and focused. Trading is a serious business — eliminate chaos. Mistake #3 Overtrading Taking too many trades driven by emotions, the urge to "win back losses," or FOMO (fear of missing out). In theory, if you have a solid trading plan and stick to it with discipline, overtrading shouldn’t happen. But we’re human — and sometimes it’s hard to resist the urge to jump back in. Solution: One very effective method: Halve your position size for each subsequent emotional trade. Meaning: You’ll think twice before closing a position impulsively — knowing you can only re-enter with half the size. And even if you start getting greedy or impulsive, this rule helps to limit your risk and potential losses. These are the major mistakes. We’ll dive into more detailed "fine-tuning" mistakes and techniques in the next post!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by kventinka
AUDUSD: Hidden Institutional Supply Zone in Play 6H Technical Outlook 🧠📉 Hidden Institutional Supply Zone in Play – Potential Short Opportunity Developing INSTITUTIONAL SUPPLY ZONE – 6H 🔴 Resistance (Distal): 0.64086 🟧 Resistance (Major): 0.63971 🟠 Resistance (Proximal): 0.63914 CHART CONTEXT Price action (PA) has tapped directly into the defined Institutional Supply Zone , showing hesitation to close above 0.64086, the Distal Resistance Line —a red flag for bulls, green light for institutional bears. SELL SETUP: HIGH-PROBABILITY IF 0.64086 HOLDS 🧨 Current PA is stalling beneath supply zone boundaries. 0.64086 is acting as the final line of defense; if unbroken on a closing basis, we maintain strong bearish bias. Stacked SELL ORDERS from 0.63842 to 0.63347. DOWNSIDE TARGETS (IF SHORT TRIGGERS) 🎯 TP 1 → 0.62405 TP 2 → 0.61613 (Mid Pivot) TP 3 → 0.61030 TP 4 → 0.60129 UPSIDE INVALIDATION LEVEL 🛑 Stoploss above 0.64086 — strong close above this level invalidates short scenario. SUMMARY 🔍 If 0.64086 holds firm and PA fails to close above this institutional supply zone, we anticipate high probability of a sell-off from current levels. This aligns with the broader downtrend structure and stacked sell-side liquidity 💡 Alert Setup: SL: 0.64086 SELL LIMIT 1: 0.63842 SELL LIMIT 2: 0.63347 TP: 0.62405 → 0.60129
Short
by ProfessorCEWard