Beyond Technical Analysis
Euro bullish sentiment prevails, consider long positions next we
- Key Insights: The euro has shown significant strength against the US dollar,
driven by renewed investor confidence, especially with several African
nations re-entering the Eurobond market. This reflects a positive sentiment
and growing faith in European financial assets. However, caution is
warranted in trading Euro AUD due to expected declines. Focus on less
volatile pairs for more stable trading strategies.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are set as follows - T1 at 1.04135, T2 at
1.05135. For stop levels, S1 is 1.025 and S2 is 1.020. This positioning
allows for a strategic long play given the current valuation of 1.03135,
maintaining alignment with market trends.
- Recent Performance: The euro has demonstrated resilience and bullish momentum
against the dollar over the past week. This positive movement is reinforced
by external developments, particularly in the Eurobond market, signaling
growing confidence towards the eurozone's financial standing.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts express optimism about the euro's potential to
continue strengthening, particularly against the US dollar. While caution is
recommended for Euro AUD, traders remain focused on pairs like EUR/USD,
guided by favorable technical assessments and support/resistance levels
identified for trading strategies.
- News Impact: The return of several African nations to the Eurobond market
signifies renewed investor confidence, positively influencing euro sentiment
in the long term. However, potential rate cuts from the ECB present
challenges, necessitating close monitoring of monetary policy shifts
affecting the euro's valuation and market trajectory.
Long positions feasible as gold tests resistance levels next wee
- Key Insights: The recent performance of gold indicates its positioning at
critical resistance levels, particularly around $2720. The potential for
upward movement remains if it breaks through these levels. Traders should
focus on managing risks given the high volatility, and beginners are
encouraged to practice with a demo account before engaging in live trading.
- Price Targets: Next week targets for long positions are T1: $2750, T2: $2785.
Stop levels are S1: $2710, S2: $2680. This setup suggests a cautious
approach while betting on gold’s ability to breach key resistance.
- Recent Performance: Gold exhibited significant fluctuations this past week,
stabilizing around the $2750 mark. Its performance stands out particularly
as other financial sectors have excelled, though gold remains intertwined
with evolving market conditions reflecting investor sentiment.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts continue to express a cautiously optimistic outlook
for gold in light of shifting economic indicators. While volatility remains
a concern, the sentiment among experts suggests that a breakout above $2720
could signal renewed interest from commodity investors, especially during
uncertain economic times.
- News Impact: Positive earnings announcements from major banks have created a
ripple effect, fostering speculation about a possible shift of capital from
equities into commodities. This environment encourages attention towards
gold as a safe haven or alternative investment during times of market
turbulence, underscoring gold's importance in a well-rounded investment
strategy.
Long on Goldman Sachs: Capitalize on Earnings Momentum Next Week- Key Insights: Goldman Sachs is positioned for potential upside next week as
its upcoming earnings report is expected to act as a catalyst for market
movement. The overall positive sentiment in the financial sector, driven by
strong bank earnings, suggests that if Goldman reports in line with or above
expectations, it could bring investor confidence back into focus. Watch
closely for market reactions particularly influenced by inflation data and
interest rates, as these factors will anchor performance in the upcoming
period.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are set as follows: T1 at 645, T2 at 660. For
stop levels, S1 at 610 and S2 at 595.
- Recent Performance: Goldman Sachs has shown resilience in recent trading
sessions, reflecting broader market trends in the financial sector while
benefiting from positive earnings reports from peers. The stock maintains a
pivotal role in shaping market sentiment with its performance closely tied
to key economic indicators.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts express a cautiously optimistic view surrounding
Goldman Sachs, highlighting the importance of upcoming earnings. While there
is concern over potential overvaluation, many believe the bank's
fundamentals remain strong, and solid earnings could validate current market
enthusiasm. The consensus suggests a need for robust performance to
reinforce long-term bullish sentiments.
- News Impact: The imminent quarterly earnings announcement for Goldman Sachs is
generating significant attention, with expectations that it will provide
insights into the overall health of the financial sector. Additionally, the
backdrop of consumer spending and inflation stabilization could enhance the
bank's performance prospects. Market participants should be aware of
interrelated impacts from competing company earnings in both the financial
and technology sectors that may influence overall market behavior.
Long MSTR Next Week: Stay Bullish Amid Bitcoin Momentum
- Key Insights: MicroStrategy continues to attract attention through its
aggressive Bitcoin investment strategy, enhancing its appeal to
institutional investors. As digital asset adoption grows, MSTR is seen as a
potential hedge against inflation. Its inclusion in the NASDAQ 100 could
further bolster investor confidence and drive demand for its shares, making
it a compelling long position in the current market.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets: T1 = 410, T2 = 425
- Stop levels: S1 = 375, S2 = 360
- Recent Performance: MSTR's stock has shown resilience amid a volatile market,
supported by its strategic investments in Bitcoin that resonate well with
the current market dynamics. Recent trading activity indicates a bullish
sentiment, with shares fluctuating within a stable range that suggests an
ongoing interest from both retail and institutional investors.
- Expert Analysis: Market analysts express optimism about MicroStrategy's stock,
given its unique position as a tech company heavily invested in Bitcoin. The
consensus leans toward a positive outlook, especially with the anticipated
institutional demand for cryptocurrency exposure. The strategic use of
equity and debt to bolster its Bitcoin position is viewed favorably, further
enhancing its market sentiment.
- News Impact: The recent discourse around MicroStrategy's status in the NASDAQ
100 underscores its elevated standing in the tech sector. As other
corporations consider similar cryptocurrency strategies, MicroStrategy may
act as a trailblazer, influencing market dynamics and sentiment in favor of
crypto-investing trends among corporate treasuries.
Nvidia poised for potential upside as AI demand fuels growth
- Key Insights: Nvidia is navigating a mixed market but shows resilience with
bullish momentum linked to increasing AI chip demand. Upcoming earnings on
November 20th are pivotal, with expectations for record revenue around $36
billion. Investors should be cautious of potential stagnation and valuation
corrections while maintaining focus on Nvidia's long-term growth driven by
innovations in AI and accelerated computing.
- Price Targets: For traders looking to go LONG on Nvidia: T1: $141.26, T2:
$144.50, with safe stop levels S1: $136.16 and S2: $134.18 to limit downside
risk.
- Recent Performance: Nvidia has demonstrated volatility alongside bullish data
points reflecting strong AI chip demand and resilience within the
semiconductor sector, despite broader market bearishness. The stock’s recent
price activity has demonstrated the potential to break key resistance levels
in the coming weeks.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain cautious optimism about Nvidia, projecting
a potential 30% price increase over the next year. The company's robust
positioning in AI and accelerated computing sectors is acknowledged, but
experts advise remaining vigilant due to cyclical tech trends and potential
market fluctuations.
- News Impact: Upcoming announcements regarding advancements in AI technologies
and the highly anticipated Q4 revenue report are critical for Nvidia.
Additionally, delays in the rollout of Blackwell AI chips may pose
challenges, influencing investor sentiment as the market evaluates Nvidia's
ongoing competitive edge and product reliability.
Aiming for a Long Position on PLTR: Potential for Growth
- Key Insights: Palantir Technologies is showing strong momentum supported by
robust government contracts and AI advancements. While valuation metrics
raise concerns, recent performance indicates a bullish trend, particularly
given the significant government contract wins which have driven up
revenues. The stock's high P/E ratio may deter some investors, but the
potential for continued growth cannot be overlooked.
- Price Targets: Based on market dynamics and analyst insights, the following
price targets and stops are recommended for next week: T1 = 74, T2 = 78, S1
= 68, S2 = 66. These targets reflect an optimistic outlook while
incorporating reasonable protection against potential downside.
- Recent Performance: Recently, PLTR's price surged from around $60 to
approximately $71, showcasing significant bullish sentiment. The company's
latest earnings reflected a 40% year-over-year growth due to impressive
government contracts, boosting investor confidence amidst an otherwise
cautious market.
- Expert Analysis: Experts remain divided; while there is excitement surrounding
Palantir's AI capabilities and government contracts, skepticism persists
regarding sustainable growth at its current price levels. CEO Alex Karp's
ambitious projections contrast sharply with more conservative analyst
expectations, leading to a complex investment thesis.
- News Impact: Palantir's notable contracts, including a $480 million deal with
the U.S. government and the partnership with Anduril Industries for defense
data AI enhancements, are expected to significantly bolster its market
position. Additionally, receiving higher ratings for its secure cloud
services from federal agencies may further strengthen its stock performance
and investor confidence.
S&P 500: Bullish Outlook for Next Week, Targeting 6050
- Key Insights: The S&P 500 is on the brink of a bullish breakout, with strong
support at 5900 and market sentiment leaning positively due to easing
inflation fears. The index is currently testing critical resistance at 6000.
Sustaining above this level could lead to further upward momentum.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets: T1: 6050, T2: 6100
- Stop levels: S1: 5900, S2: 5850
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 has seen a notable rally, bouncing off the
5750 support level and showing strong overall performance this week. The
current price at 5996.66 indicates bullish trends, and market confidence
appears to be returning.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic view for the S&P
500, highlighting strong technical patterns and positive economic
indicators. If the index can hold above 6000, this could trigger further
gains and reinforce bullish sentiment.
- News Impact: Recent economic releases regarding consumer sentiment and
inflation have positively impacted market dynamics. The upcoming earnings
season, featuring major companies like Netflix and Johnson & Johnson, could
influence market sentiment. Additionally, speculation around President
Trump's inauguration and potential economic policies adds to the bullish
outlook, but traders should prepare for possible volatility in light of the
Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
Build Your Position: Consider Going LONG on Shopify Next Week
- Key Insights: Shopify is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing positive
retail sentiment and an expected boost from the holiday shopping season.
Analysts suggest that the stock might be oversold, with a potential rebound
anticipated as user adoption and retention grow. Forthcoming earnings on
February 11 could provide further clarity on the company’s growth
trajectory, making it a strategic point for traders to evaluate long
positions.
- Price Targets:
- Next week targets:
- T1: $110
- T2: $115
- Stop levels:
- S1: $93.50
- S2: $90
- Recent Performance: Shopify has seen increased activity in its stock as the
retail sector benefits from consumer spending trends. Observers note a
steady rise in retail sales, signaling robust market dynamics favoring
e-commerce platforms like Shopify.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Shopify,
highlighting potential for growth ahead of the upcoming earnings report. The
general sentiment leans towards a favorable outlook, underpinned by positive
shifts in online shopping that support long-term value for the company.
- News Impact: The upcoming earnings release on February 11 is crucial for
Shopify. Investors are eager to see how the company aims to capitalize on
strong holiday spending amidst improving economic conditions, as any news
could influence stock performance significantly.
Focus on Long Position for TSLA Next Week
- Key Insights: TSLA has demonstrated strong bullish momentum with a notable
increase of about 25% since the post-election period. Key support levels at
$414-$411 should hold to maintain upward momentum, while breaking resistance
at $429 could lead to a target price of $451. With the potential for
innovations in FSD technology and strategic partnerships, the sentiment
remains positive despite regulatory concerns.
- Price Targets:
Next week targets: T1: $441, T2: $451
Stop levels: S1: $414.5, S2: $411.0
- Recent Performance: TSLA has witnessed significant market activity, trading
above major moving averages, indicating a recovery with optimistic investor
sentiment. Currently, it maintains a market cap of around $1 trillion and is
poised for potential upward movement if price levels hold.
- Expert Analysis: Market analysts express cautious optimism regarding TSLA's
growth due to advancements in autonomous vehicle technology and its
prominent position in the EV landscape. Influential investor Ron Baron
advocates for substantial long-term growth potential, suggesting a market
cap increase to $5 trillion in the next decade.
- News Impact: Recent developments, including inventory refresh efforts and
strategic discounts, reflect Tesla's adaptability in a competitive market.
Anticipated regulatory changes following the inauguration of Donald Trump
represent potential growth catalysts, alongside discussions around
partnerships for autonomous projects. The balance of optimism and caution
surrounding autonomous service rollouts will affect investor expectations
moving forward.
Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price.
But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us.
On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President.
I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas!
The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year.
There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now.
Bitcoin
On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support.
But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always)
Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks.
As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period.
The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high.
On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon.
But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out.
If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week.
But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Send us an email or message us on social media.
cheers!
Jasper
Buy Trade Idea: USD/CHFUSD/CHF has recently broken above the key resistance level at 0.9128, which has now turned into a support zone. The price is currently retesting this level, indicating potential for a bullish continuation toward higher resistance zones.
Entry: 0.9128
Stop Loss (SL): 0.9080
Take Profit (TP): 0.9300
As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:4, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective.
This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, market structure, and the breakout-retest dynamic, supporting a bullish bias.
Sell Trade Idea: GBP/USDGBP/USD is currently in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently retested a key resistance zone near 1.2220 and shown signs of rejection, indicating potential for further downside movement.
Entry: 1.2220
Stop Loss (SL): 1.2270
Take Profit (TP): 1.2070
As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:3, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective.
This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, investor sentiment, and retail sentiment.
Buy Trade Idea: USD/JPY USD/JPY is currently showing signs of bullish momentum after bouncing off a key support zone near 154.00. The price has retested this significant demand zone and demonstrated rejection, indicating a potential reversal to the upside.
Entry: 155.50
Stop Loss (SL): 154.00
Take Profit (TP): 161.50
As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:3, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective.
This trade setup is based on a combination of technical analysis, fundamental analysis, investor sentiment, and retail sentiment.
Trade Idea: AUD/USD ShortAUD/USD is currently in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently retested a key resistance zone near 0.6230 and shown signs of rejection, indicating potential for further downside movement.
Entry: 0.6230
Stop Loss (SL): 0.6280
Take Profit (TP): 0.6020
As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:4, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective. This trade setup is based on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, investor sentiment, and retail sentiment.
Trade Idea: EUR/USD ShortEUR/USD is currently in a bearish trend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price has recently retested a key resistance zone near 1.0310 and shown signs of rejection, indicating potential for further downside movement.
Entry: 1.0310
Stop Loss (SL): 1.0398
Take Profit (TP): 1.0104
As the trade progresses, price action should be monitored closely. Stop Loss adjustments can be made to break-even or to secure profits as the price approaches the TP level. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (RRR) of approximately 1:3, making it a sound trade from a risk management perspective. This trade setup is based on technical analysis, fundamental analysis, investor sentiment, and retail sentiment.
AZERO of Solana killerThe team is rewarding holders using new pools and rumor has it that they will focus on the price in 2025 which will be good news for this great coin.
I expect the price to reach the 0.6 area and if it can reject it, it will easily reach $3. It seems that this currency will become one of the top 50 currencies. Yes, it is a great currency with a good investment team.
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2025/03]: Uptrend to PersistSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) rose last week, closing USD 6.75/ton higher by 17/Jan (Fri).
SGX IO Futures opened at USD 97.40/ton on 13/Jan (Mon) and closed at USD 104.15/ton on 17/Jan (Fri).
Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 104.20/ton on 17/Jan (Fri) and a low of USD 97.40/ton on 13/Jan (Mon). It traded in a range of USD 6.80/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week.
Prices opened near the pivot point of USD 97.50 and closed above the R4 point of USD 104.05 at the end of the week.
Volume peaked on 17/Jan (Fri), as prices hit new highs due to China’s stronger-than-expected economic recovery.
Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary
IO prices began the week on an uptrend as IO prices rose in early Asian trade, driven by strong Chinese trade data, robust iron ore imports, and optimism around China's stimulus measures and fiscal strength.
Despite the week's rally, economists caution that the rise is sentiment-driven rather than fundamental. Falling Chinese steel demand and potential U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods could continue to weigh on raw material prices.
IO prices rose throughout the week as China’s GDP (Q4) edged up 5.0% YoY and Industrial production (Dec) increased by 6.2% YoY.
China's port IO stockpiles grew by 0.3 million tons (0.2%) WoW to 146.63 million tons for the week ending 17/Jan, according to MMI data .
Along with rising port inventories, the Housing prices (Dec) dropped by 5.3% YoY. With implied vols at multi-year lows, expectations for significant near-term movement remain limited after a strong second week of 2025.
Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Feb contract trades 19.4% below its last 5-year average (USD 128.93/ton).
Short-Term Moving Averages Shows Bullish Trend Amid Golden Cross Formation
The formation of a golden cross on 17/ Jan (Fri) indicates that the bullish trend may be sustained in the near term. Prices gained upward momentum early this week and continued to rise throughout the week.
Long-Term Averages Signals Possible Consolidation near 200-day MA
IO prices crossed the 100-day MA and closed slightly below the 200-day MA. This indicates the strengthening of the bullish trend as prices near the 200-day MA, with prices consolidating at this level next week.
MACD signals Bullish Momentum but Potential for Consolidation Emerging
The MACD signals a positive momentum starting from 14/Jan. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 63.46, in the overbought zone, and hovers way above the midpoint, with its RSI-based moving average at 45.13.
Volatility Declined; Price Closed Above 38.2% Fibonacci Level
Volatility rose through the week but dipped by the end. Prices broke the resistance levels of 23.6% Fibonacci level (USD 100.35/ton) and the 38.2% Fibonacci level (USD 103.20/ton) during the week. Going forward, the 50.0% Fibonacci level at USD 105.45/ton will act as resistance while the 38.2% level at USD 100.35/ton will act as the support.
Buying Pressure Intensified, Prices Near Mid of High & Low Volume Nodes
Buying pressure has grown stronger from the start of this week according to the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator. The price is trading near the mid of high & low-volume nodes. Price closed the week near the Upper Bollinger Band.
IO Prices Rise Towards CNY & Then Decline Thereafter
Between 2021 & 2024, SGX IO futures prices have risen leading up to the Chinese New Year before tapering off ten trading days after the holiday. Prices declined before & after the CNY holidays only in 2024 while prices continued to rise even after CNY before falling sharply in 2021 & 2022.
A similar trend is observed in the first three days of the ten days leading up to CNY 2025.
IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIIs) and Physicals participants are net long with 159.5k and 20.3k lots across all futures expiries. Managed Money participants and Others are net short with 166.9k and 12.8k lots respectively across all futures expires. Managed money increased net short positions last week, while FIIs increased their net long positions. Physicals switched from being Net Short to Net Long over the week as of 10th Jan 2025 relative to the previous week. Overall futures open interest as of 10/ Jan stood at 1,107,236 lots (4.1%) while it was 1,063,467 lots as of 03/Jan.
Source: SGX
IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure
Financial Institutions (FIIs) and Physicals participants are net long with 154.1k and 24.8k lots across all futures & options expiries. Managed Money participants and Others are net short with 170.9k and 8.1k lots respectively across all futures & options expires. Managed money increased net short positions last week, while FIIs increased their net long positions. Physicals switched from being Net Short to Net Long over the week as of 10th Jan 2025 relative to the previous week. Overall futures & options open interest as of 10/ Jan stood at 1,372,286 lots (+4.4%) while it was 1,314,185 lots as of 03/Jan.
Source: SGX
Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants
Physical participants have switched from net short to net long over the last week. Managed Money transitioned from net long to net short positions in the last three weeks, signaling a notable shift in market sentiment. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of this year.
Source: SGX
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Optimism around China's improving narrative ahead of the Chinese New Year has bolstered sentiment. Iron ore prices have climbed sharply, buoyed by a brighter outlook on recent stimulus measures. As trend-followers drive momentum, medium to longer-term fundamentals will likely take a backseat in the short term. Technical indicators present mixed signals, with bullish signs such as a golden cross formation in short-term moving averages and prices trading near the upper Bollinger Band, alongside consolidation signals like RSI slightly above neutral and prices nearing long-term moving averages.
Against this bullish momentum backdrop, this hypothetical trade setup involves entering a long position at USD 103.5/ton with a take profit level at USD 108.00/ton combined with a stop loss at 100.8/ton resulting in a 1.67x reward-to-risk ratio.
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