Beyond Technical Analysis
Crude Oil Surges Amid Geopolitical RiskCrude Oil Surges Amid Geopolitical Risk: Correction or Structural Rally?
Brent crude oil prices surged sharply in response to the U.S. attack on nuclear facilities in Iran, spiking to $80 per barrel in early Monday trading. Although prices later corrected toward $76.71, the threat of a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which one-third of the world’s oil supply passes — continues to exert upward pressure on prices.
Since hitting lows near $58 per barrel in May, Brent has climbed more than 36% in just six weeks. Technically, this rally has broken through the key resistance zone around $82, a level that had served as a ceiling multiple times over the past twelve months and coincides with the midpoint of the long-term price range ($68.34–$94.93), which also includes the Point of Control (POC) of the broader value area.
Technical Highlights:
Immediate support zone: $76.50 – $75.20. This is where consolidation could occur if geopolitical tensions temporarily ease.
Next resistance: $81.82 (at the POC) – $83.50, the April 2023 highs and a historically congested area. Beyond that, $85.50 is a key level, being the most frequently traded zone in 2024.
Technical target in the event of a bullish breakout: If Brent breaks above $83.50 with volume, the next projected move could reach the $88–$90 range, where long-term resistances and Fibonacci extensions converge.
Key indicators: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the daily chart is in overbought territory (>70), which may prompt consolidation or technical pullbacks, albeit within a strong bullish momentum.
Market Sentiment:
The conflict has significantly boosted crude oil’s appeal as an energy safe haven. This could mark a potential “turning point,” but a swift resolution to the conflict may drive Brent back below $70. Still, any serious disruption to supply — whether from damaged overland exports to China or a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz — could catapult prices well above the previous high of $92.55.
Conclusion:
Brent crude oil currently maintains a bullish trend in both the short and medium term. However, its path remains highly volatile and subject to exogenous factors, including a potential military response from Iran and the diplomatic evolution of the Middle East conflict. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz would act as the ultimate catalyst for another rally.
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La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada no es un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo.
BTC To new ATH, Let's bet!For my followers, they know I dont usually write out the reasons for a trade during the week unless on weekends, reason been the nature of my trades. I enter on market orders and then I post, any time wasted to be outlining reasons will make them not to enter the trade.
BTC is still bullish, I know the bears are coming, they always do, I know the cycle will end, it always does but now is not the time. Main reason is, everyone is now bearish.
The chart hasn't also showed bearish signs, just retracement.
I highlighted below 100k as my next POI because of the liquidity there, I've been buying since yesterday, I hope you do too. If not, this is another opportunity.
For those that said R:R is big, Learn to hold your winning trades please, in that way you'll maximize profit and also reduce frequency of trades. If you can't, just open a new account, fund $100 and then trade my signals there. The account will be bigger than your main account by this years ending.
I trade forex too, if you've any question regarding how you'll do this, ask away in the comment section
I will show you how I do it
Now someone said we wont be seeing a new ATH. I think he is very wrong and knows nothing. I will attach a post I made when BTC went below 77k and I was bullish and I outlined the reasons there.
Enjoy
Please, hold this trade.
Follow me as my trades are market orders, so you'll see them no time and enter them on time.
Resistance roads with price points indication Can XRP break out?…….. Do you think XRP has a liquidity pool under its whale’s belly already?……. The foolish think it might happen but the inclination of a savvy veteran say: Where’s the location to the on-demand-liquidity? But that population must level up swiftly and efficiently because they know stagnant equals tardiness! No Resistance roads with price points indication analyzation necessary.! You either see the walls gardens or you don’t …………….. #ODL <swift
Bearish Continuation I am expecting price to continue lower from this newly formed internal supply zone with the market open gap. When the price first mitigated the daily demand zone it failed to remain bullish. Now sellers are in control of the market so I will be looking to buy only when we have MSS after the sweep of the Low.
Gold Set to Rise If U.S.–Iran Tensions Escalate📊 Market Overview:
Gold traded within a volatile range this past week, hovering between $3,360 and $3,385/oz. The U.S. dollar weakened on expectations that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in July, while persistent inflation concerns globally have kept gold supported. However, a geopolitical shock emerged late in the week: President Donald Trump announced readiness to deploy troops to the Middle East if Iran continues provocation, raising the possibility of serious military escalation.
📉 Technical Analysis:
•Key Resistance Levels: $3,387 – $3,403 (weekly highs), $3,450, and extended targets at $3,500–$3,520.
•Nearest Support: $3,358 – $3,365 (lower bound of the bullish channel), then $3,344 and $3,320.
•EMA09: Price remains above EMA 09, confirming a short-term uptrend on both 4H and daily charts.
•Chart Pattern: On the H4 chart, a Bullish Flag/Wedge Breakout is forming. A solid hold above $3,360 and breakout above $3,387 may trigger a strong upward move.
📌 Outlook:
Gold is likely to break higher next week if U.S.–Iran tensions escalate into direct conflict. Safe-haven demand could surge, driving gold toward $3,450 or even $3,500/oz.
On the other hand, if tensions ease and the U.S. dollar recovers on strong economic data, gold may pull back to $3,344–$3,320 before resuming any uptrend.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $3,358–3,365
🎯 TP: $3,387 / $3,403 / $3,450
🛑 SL: $3,344
🟡 Enter on pullback to support — preferably if geopolitical tensions rise.
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: $3,400–3,410 (if price becomes overbought, RSI > 70)
🎯 TP: $3,380 / $3,365
🛑 SL: $3,420
🟡 Only apply this if tensions de-escalate and the U.S. dollar strengthens.
COF – Capital One Financial WaverVanir Long-Term Vault Protocol🔐 Posted by: WaverVanir_International_LLC
🗓 June 22, 2025 | Chart:
“We don’t trade the chart. We activate the timeline.” – VolanX
This post isn’t just a technical read — it’s a capital alignment broadcast. WaverVanir has identified Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) as a long-term macro asset embedded within the upcoming credit-tech realignment cycle.
🧠 THE BIG IDEA:
Capital One is not just a credit card company — it's evolving into a data-native, AI-compatible financial infrastructure layer. The rise of virtual cards, adaptive underwriting, and embedded B2B lending platforms puts COF at the center of modern financial sovereignty.
📊 CHART INSIGHT – SMART MONEY DIMENSION SHIFT
✅ Break of Structure (BOS) above $196 confirms demand-based control
🎯 Fibonacci Expansion Target Zones:
$226.27 = baseline activation
$264.27 = valuation unlock
$312.62 = timeline merge
$365.99–$400.59 = VolanX node fulfillment
📌 Premium zone reaccumulation is underway. Weak hands may exit. Strong systems enter.
📰 RECENT CATALYSTS:
🔒 Capital One x Discover merger announcement in Q2 sparked consolidation speculation
🌐 AI-native underwriting models launched for small business + retail
💳 Record digital payment volume via virtual cards (like the one WaverVanir currently deploys)
💼 Capital One Labs expanding banking-as-a-service offerings to developers and fintech partners
💼 WAVERVANIR STRATEGIC DISCLOSURE:
WaverVanir International LLC is opening an institutional trustline with Capital One.
We are preparing to absorb and deploy up to $100M in structured credit toward a next-generation AI trading and intelligence ecosystem — VolanX.
📣 This chart is not financial advice. It's a signal:
COF is not a bank stock. It's a capital lattice.
📌 TAGS / SIGNALS:
#COF #CapitalOne #WaverVanir #VolanX #SmartMoneyConcepts #InstitutionalCredit #MacroBreakout #VirtualCards #Fintech #Fibonacci #AIFinance #CreditExpansion #TradingView #DSS #TimelineActivation #FinancialSovereignty
🧬 If you're building something real — this is the asset to align with.
Capital One isn’t just where money flows. It’s where systems plug in.
Ye chart kuch kehta hai : Maruti SuzukiMaruti Suzuki India offers a strong long-term investment case due to its dominant market position, steady earnings growth, strategic focus on EVs and exports, and healthy financials. While there are near-term margin pressures and industry growth challenges, these are largely seen as temporary, with the company poised for sustainable growth driven by new product launches and expanding export opportunities.
Maruti Suzuki India is generally considered a good stock for long-term investment based on several key factors:
Strong Market Position and Leadership: Maruti Suzuki is the largest passenger car manufacturer in India, holding a dominant market share. Its extensive product portfolio, including hatchbacks, sedans, and SUVs, caters to a wide customer base, providing stable revenue streams.
Consistent Revenue and Earnings Growth: The company has demonstrated robust financial growth, with total revenue rising from ₹677.89 billion in FY21 to ₹1.42 trillion in FY24, and net income increasing significantly over the years. Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow at about 9.5% annually, indicating steady profitability expansion.
Healthy Financials and Cash Flow: Maruti Suzuki maintains a strong balance sheet with low debt levels (net debt is negative, indicating more cash than debt), substantial cash reserves, and positive free cash flow, which supports operational stability and future investments.
Growth Catalysts:
Electric Vehicle (EV) Expansion: Maruti is positioning India as a hub for global EV exports, which is expected to be a significant growth driver. The launch of new EV models like the e-Vitara and the company's strategic focus on EV exports with a target of over 20% export growth from FY26 onwards enhance its long-term growth prospects.
New Product Launches: Upcoming SUV launches in FY26 are anticipated to boost market share and revenue.
Export Growth: The company is targeting strong export volume growth (over 20% YoY), which diversifies revenue sources and reduces dependency on the domestic market.
Valuation and Analyst Sentiment: The stock trades at a reasonable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 27.18 with a dividend yield close to 1%, which is attractive for a growth-oriented blue-chip company. Most analysts have a bullish stance, with many recommending a "Buy" and expecting a potential upside of approximately 16% from current levels.
Risks to Consider:
Margin pressure due to startup costs of new plants, higher R&D and advertising expenses, and commodity price volatility could impact short-term profitability.
Domestic industry growth is expected to be modest (1–2% in FY26), which may limit near-term volume growth.
Margin compression is a key risk to monitor, although it is seen as temporary with expected improvement once new plant utilization ramps up.
A barrel at $130? Not unless Hormuz closes for good.As tensions in the Middle East between Iran, Israel and the United States escalate, speculation about a $130 oil barrel resurfaces on the markets. While the recent rise in prices is very real, fuelled by geopolitics, there is nothing in the fundamentals or in the technical analysis to justify such an extreme scenario for the time being. Unless... the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Here are some explanations.
1) Oil rebounds, but no technical red alert
Since its low point in May, oil prices have surged by over 40%, buoyed by regional tensions and renewed volatility. The market is anticipating a rise in geopolitical risk, but for the time being, this recovery is not being accompanied by any technical red flags.
Indicators such as the COT report (Commitment of Traders), volumes and key technical thresholds on WTI and Brent are not confirming extreme tension at the current stage, as long as US oil remains below resistance at $80 a barrel. Although the 200-day moving average has been breached, and the reintegration of the $65 level has provided the starting point for a bullish impulse, the price of oil is now at a technical crossroads.
The chart below shows a bearish resistance line (red) on WTI, and the same applies to Brent. If these resistances were to be breached, this would be a strong bullish warning signal for the price of a barrel of oil towards $90/95.
2) A market under pressure... but framed by OPEC
Indeed, only a major supply constraint can push oil up to $130 a barrel.
The current geopolitical context comes at the worst possible time for OPEC. The oil cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, had recently decided to increase production after years of restrictions. The objectives were to respond to what was seen as robust demand, win back market share from US producers and punish less disciplined members.
In May, June and July, an increase of 411,000 barrels per day is scheduled. In other words, the market is receiving additional supply, which mechanically limits the risk of a speculative surge, barring a major exogenous shock such as the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
3) Iran/Israel/USA: the market prices the risk, but doesn't panic. Traders are currently considering three scenarios:
1. Tougher sanctions against Iran, reducing supply by 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.
2. A targeted attack on Iran's oil infrastructure.
3. A temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The first two cases can be absorbed by the market, notably thanks to the production capacities of other OPEC+ members or the strategic release of reserves. On the other hand, blocking the Strait of Hormuz would be a “game changer”.
The Strait of Hormuz, between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is the gateway to 20% of the world's oil supply, i.e. some 17 to 18 million barrels a day. It is also a vital route for liquefied natural gas (LNG), particularly from Qatar.
Even a partial shutdown would have an immediate impact on all logistics chains and the energy security of importing countries, and would trigger a brutal price shock. In this case, oil at 130 dollars would no longer be an extreme hypothesis, but a plausible scenario in the very short term.
The situation is, of course, evolving, and investors need to keep an eye out for weak signals: military movements in the Strait, targeted attacks on energy infrastructures, bellicose rhetoric. In the absence of a blockade of Hormuz, the fundamentals (rising OPEC production, slowing Chinese demand, technical stability) militate in favor of a ceiling of around $80/90.
A barrel at $130? Yes, but only if Hormuz closes completely.
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Can Geopolitics Redefine Market Risk?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which analysts widely dub the "fear gauge," currently commands significant attention in global financial markets. Its recent surge reflects profound uncertainty, particularly from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the VIX quantifies market expectations for future volatility, its current elevation signals more than mere sentiment. It represents a sophisticated repricing of systemic risk, capturing the implied probability of significant market dislocations. Investors find it an indispensable tool for navigating turbulent periods.
The dramatic escalation of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict into a confrontation, involving the United States, directly fuels this heightened volatility. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, prompted swift Iranian retaliation. Subsequently, on June 22, the U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," conducting precision strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately declared diplomacy over, holding the U.S. responsible for "dangerous consequences" and vowing further "punishment operations," including a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This direct U.S. military intervention, particularly targeting nuclear facilities with specialized munitions, fundamentally alters the conflict's risk profile. It moves beyond proxy warfare into a confrontation with potentially existential implications for Iran. The explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil supplies, creates immense uncertainty for energy markets and the broader global economy. While historical VIX spikes from geopolitical events often prove transient, the current situation's unique characteristics introduce a higher degree of systemic risk and unpredictability. The Cboe VVIX Index, measuring the VIX's expected volatility, has also risen to the higher end of its range, signaling deep market uncertainty about the future trajectory of risk itself.
The current environment necessitates a shift from static portfolio management to a dynamic, adaptive approach. Investors must re-evaluate portfolio construction, considering long exposure to volatility through VIX instruments as a hedging mechanism, and increasing allocations to traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The elevated VVIX implies that even the predictability of market volatility is compromised, demanding a multi-layered risk management strategy. This specific confluence of events might signify a departure from historical patterns of short-lived geopolitical market impacts, suggesting geopolitical risk could become a more ingrained and persistent factor in asset pricing. Vigilance and agile strategies are paramount for navigating this unpredictable landscape.
How to trade GAPS in the market, SELL GBPUSD!!!!All the information you need to find a high probability trade are in front of you on the charts so build your trading decisions on 'the facts' of the chart NOT what you think or what you want to happen or even what you heard will happen. If you have enough facts telling you to trade in a certain direction and therefore enough confluence to take a trade, then this is how you will gain consistency in you trading and build confidence. Check out my trade idea!!
www.tradingview.com
What Is the Base Price or Long-term Support for Crude Oil?What is the base price for oil? Specifically, today we will discuss crude oil, and we can apply this understanding to other commodities as well.
I won't go into too much technical detail about the difference between the base price and the cost price for crude oil, but for most people, it helps to see the title as “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
My answer is yes, and this is due to inflation. Over time, we tend to pay higher prices for food, gas and many others that we consume.
The cost of goods varies between producers and merchants, and then from merchants to end consumers. However, it all starts with the producer. Before a producer acquires oil for refining, they reference crude oil prices as a benchmark to decide whether to make a purchase or hold back.
So, “Is there a bottom-line price or support level for crude oil?”
As we can see from the yearly chart, in every few years the base price of crude oil keeps adjusting higher; in levels and stages.
There is also this parallel channel formed by joining across its troughs and mirror it to its prominent resistance, we can observe crude oil prices range bound between this broad uptrend over time.
We can try to apply this analysis to other commodities; we will find a similar broad uptrend across most of them. But why? Because of inflation.
Regarding the bottom-line support for crude oil, we observed that it was at $10 from the 1980s until the turn of the millennium. Over time, accounting for inflation, this support level shifted upward to around $30 from the early 2000s until 2020, the year of COVID-19. And now we can see there is a new support at $60 since the start of 2020.
How to explain this break below $30 base price and went to -$40?
In technical analysis, this break is considered a false break, because, at the close of that year, on this yearly chart, prices settled above the support line at $30.
The story behind this is that when COVID hit, airlines were grounded, leading to storage issues for large quantities of oil. It cost more to store the oil than its selling price, which caused prices to drop below zero, reaching as low as -$40. But prices ultimately found its equilibrium and settle at a fair value at $48 that year.
Where is the support for crude oil, and what is its current direction?
This was a video analysis on Sep 2024, in this weekly chart, we can see a wedge pattern. Then I believe if the price breaks above this downtrend line, it suggests that we may see higher crude oil prices. And this analysis is taking shape today.
We can see prices initially broke above this trendline, but shortly sink below and broke this support line at $66 to $55. And today we are at $73 after the renewal of the Middle East tension.
How should I interpret the move to the recent low around $55?
I would encourage to always discover the development with different time frame as time progress.
Switching to the yearly chart, we observed that crude oil is still supported above $60 that year.
Please also make a point to adjust this downtrend line from time to time as market dynamic changes.
Watch the full video:
WTI Crude Oil Futures & Options
Ticker: MCL
Minimum fluctuation:
0.01 per barrel = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
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CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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Bitcoin Under PressureBitcoin remains mired in a bearish trend as price action struggles below key moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—all of which point to sustained downside pressure. On the higher timeframes, a clear descending trendline from the April–May highs remains firmly intact, reinforcing the macro downtrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hover in the neutral-to-lower zones, with recent bounces still failing to cross bullish thresholds. A short-term relief rally emerged post-news volatility, with price attempting to retest the supply zone between $103.9K and $104K—a region of confluence with bearish Fibonacci levels and previous order blocks.
However, rejection at this level could set the stage for a further breakdown, targeting the $96.3K–$95.5K range. In the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, Fibonacci retracements and a climbing RSI suggest short-term relief is plausible, but a lower high formation would confirm continued bearish control.
BTC remains technically vulnerable despite short-term bounces, while geopolitical events and U.S. policy narratives shape market sentiment. Yet behind the volatility, continued ETF inflows, stablecoin stability, and altcoin resilience signal a market that, while cautious, remains fundamentally engaged.
Traders and investors alike should stay focused on key resistance levels for BTC, monitor developments in Middle Eastern tensions and U.S. crypto policy, and watch ETF and stablecoin flows as barometers of broader market conviction.
SHORT @ London Open - Monday June 23rd 2025I believe Sellers are in control of the auctions. I see a nice distribution wall above to launch shorts from. Target the 150 where there seems to be liquidity target making sense of a short trade. ALWAYS wait for Lopen. Demand may come in and take over 6025/Dist Wall. If so there is plenty to like about the LONGS then with liquidity above. How price comes into 6025 at Lopen is what we need to be looking for.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Monday, 23th June 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Flash Manufacturing PMI
Notes:
- Geopolitical tension escalated
- Price gapped up on market open
- Potential BUY if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3430
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
GAMUDA CONT MARK UPThis is a continuation of my prev post
**Refer link below
In Wyckoff Methode , The Formation of BUEC is a sign that further price advancement will continue
to the phase E (Marking up outside the Trading Range)
The BUEC in this formation, coincide with a Local Spring
On Top of that, with a Feather's weight & Springboard in it
With a Trigger Bar today, position initiated as attached
PureWyckoff
Checking the trend change after the volatility period
Hello, traders.
If you "Follow", you can always get the latest information quickly.
Have a nice day today.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
This volatility period is expected to last from June 21st to 23rd.
Therefore, it is necessary to check the trend formed after the volatility period.
The 99705.62 point is the HA-High indicator point of the 1W chart, so it is important to see if there is support near this point.
If it falls without support, it may fall to around 89294.25.
The 89294.25 point is the HA-Low indicator point of the 1D chart.
Since the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is rising to around 99705.62, the area around 99705.62 is likely to play an important role as support and resistance.
Even if it turns upward, it must rise above the HA-High indicator point of 108316.90 of the 1D chart to maintain the price.
If not, it is likely to fall again.
-
The fact that the HA-High indicator was created means that it fell from the high point range.
In other words, if it falls below the HA-HIgh indicator point, it is likely to start a downtrend.
However, since the HA-High indicator is an intermediate value, if it is supported near the HA-High indicator, it is possible to show a stepwise upward trend.
The end point of the high point is the DOM (60) indicator.
Therefore, it should be interpreted that it has risen above the high point section only if it rises above the 111696.21 point.
Therefore, depending on how the 108316.90-111696.21 section is broken upward, an upward trend can be predicted.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
There are auxiliary indicators OBV indicators made of Low Line ~ High Line channels and PVT-MACD oscillator indicators.
The OBV indicator made of Low Line ~ High Line channels is an indicator that can see how the channel is structured, and whether OBV falls below the Low Line of the channel or rises above the High Line.
Therefore, you can predict the future trend based on the channel pattern.
-
The PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is an indicator created by adding the Close value dash PVT value to the MACD formula.
Therefore, it shows a similar appearance to the MACD oscillator indicator.
The reason for looking at the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is to find out how the trading volume flows.
There are many trading volume indicators, but I think this PVT-MACD oscillator indicator reflects the trading volume flow well.
-
However, you should look at the support and resistance points where the changes in the movement of the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator, the OBV indicator created by the Low Line ~ High Line channel, and the StochRSI indicator occur.
If the changes in these indicators occur near the DOM(-60), HA-Low, HA-High, and DOM(60) indicator points, it can be of great help in creating a trading strategy.
The DOM(-60) indicator indicates the end point of the low point.
That is, falling below the DOM(-60) indicator means that it has entered the low point range, and there is a high possibility that it will show a full-scale downtrend.
The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that it has left the low point range.
That is, if it rises above the HA-Low indicator, it means that there is a high possibility that an uptrend will begin.
However, since the HA-Low indicator is an intermediate value, if it encounters resistance and falls, it is possible that it will show a stepwise downtrend.
Therefore, whether there is support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range is important.
-
Currently, the OBV indicator created as the Low Line ~ High Line channel has fallen below the Low Line.
Therefore, we need to look at whether the Low Line ~ High Line channel will change to a downtrend channel in the future.
We need to look at whether an 'M'-shaped pattern indicating a trend change occurs.
Since the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is still below the 0 point, it can be seen that the selling force is dominant.
However, since the oscillator is maintaining an upward trend, you can see that the overall selling pressure is decreasing.
Even so, since it is located near the HA-High indicator, the resistance in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section is expected to be considerable.
-
Support and resistance points should be drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
This will increase accuracy.
However, since the standard time frame chart for all indicators is a 1D chart, it is most important to check the flow of the 1D chart.
-
You may think it is difficult because you have to look at multiple indicators at once.
The most important thing is to look at the movement when approaching the HA-Low or HA-High indicator.
The reason is that the basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Here is a description of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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Can XAUUSD Continue to Go Up?Last week was a bearish one for XAUUSD, following a strong bullish surge the week prior. The key question now is: can gold reclaim the highs it reached two weeks ago?
From a macro perspective, institutions remain net long and have even increased their long positions, signaling continued confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset. On the geo-economic front, tensions in the Middle East persist, with growing involvement from the U.S., adding to the uncertainty that typically supports gold prices.
Personally, I maintain a bullish bias on XAUUSD for now, supported by both fundamental and geopolitical drivers. However, if the landscape changes — whether through technical invalidation or shifts in sentiment — I’m prepared to adapt accordingly.