SPX at support ahead of critical dataIntraday Update: As the "bias chart" supported has noted the last several sessions, key support is at 5770, and today's lows (as of now) is 5775. With PCE, ECI and unemployment claims and earnings from a ton of major companies like AAPL, AMZN, MA and more later today, this support will be in focus.
Beyond Technical Analysis
U.S. Bancorp Buy opportunity setting upU.S. Bancorp is a financial service holding company. The Company’s major lines of business are Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking, Consumer and Business Banking, Payment Services, and Treasury and Corporate Support. The Company provides a range of financial services, including lending and depository services, cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services
FUNDAMENTAL METRICS
Exchange- New York stock exchange
Market capitalization- $75.73B
Basic EPS- $3.27
Total Net revenue- $28.1B
Net Income- $5.4B
Average common shares outstanding- 1.5B
Total assets- $663B
Deposits- $512B
Provision for credit losses -$2.3B
Dividends declared per share- $1.93
Financial metrics as at year ended Dec 31, 2023, Market cap as per 24.10.2024 Q4 EARNINGS SUMMARY (Date of release 16.10.2024) (Next report date Jan 16,2025)
1. Net income of $1,714 million and diluted earnings per common share of $1.03. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 4.5%.
2. There shall be a share buy back program of $5 billion.
3. The bank is focused on organic growth & broadening their reach. Not interested in mergers & Acquisitions currently. The bank's latest large investment was the acquisition of Union Bank, which closed in December 2022. This meaningfully expanded its presence in California.
4. Net revenue of $6,864 million, including $4,166 million of net interest income on a taxable-equivalent basis
5. Noninterest income of $2,817 million driven by year-over-year increases in:
i. Commercial products revenue of 12.1%
ii. Trust and investment management fees of 6.4%
iii. Payment services revenue of 3.1%
iv. Mortgage banking revenue of 7.6%
6. Non-interest expenses dropped by 1% compared to last year, but increased slightly by 0.4% compared to the last quarter, when accounting for previous notable expenses.
7. The bank's return on common equity was 17.9%, return on assets was 1.03%, and efficiency ratio was 60.2%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RULES
1. Structure drawing (Trend line drawing on past price chart data)
2. Patterns identification (Naming patterns on past price chart data for future wave)- Corrective flag forming
3. Future indication (Reading indicator for future wave)- MACD 0 crossover to signal buys
4. Future wave (Drawing on future price chart using future indication from indicator)- highlighted
5. Future reversal point (Identifying trend reversal point on price chart using structure)- Target price $67.35 (top of bigger correction)
Look for the trade on lower timeframe by identifying impulses & correction as shown
Recommendation:
Buy price range: $44.8- $48
Target price: $67
Top Shareholders
The Vanguard group- 8.64%
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company- 4.85%
State Street Global Advisors- 4.26%
MUFG Bank- 4.22%
Charles Schwab Investment managers- 2.92%
Fidelity Management- 2.66%
ETHEREUM is 1.1 TRILLION DOLLARS less valuable than BITCOINor -78%
The flippening was a common narrative.
ETH as hard money was also a narrative - in reality only when gas is exorbitant.
ETH as a world computer was the early narrative.
Bitcoin deserves it entry on to the world stage cycle.
ETH can become a 1 Trillion dollar + network.
Sharding and splintering of the network effects of the mainet clearly is not value creating. Splitting of communities and economic energy was the result.
Solana flippening is a good narrative that we are following this cycle.
Coins are the product of these smart contract platforms.
At the moment the best coin factory is SOL.
BTC is scarce. No coins are allowed to be created on it's. The Bitcoin forks had the stink of a founder, a human attached to it's network ... not what capital allocators.
They wanted a autonomous network that runs by itself and ossificatoin of the code. A complicated spaghetti bowl of code that the core dev team refuse to tinker with.
The results is clear at this point in time.
Happy ATH yes, BTC(USDT) reached the all time on 29th october.
Why everyone is so excited ?
Not for the monetary positive results, but for the meaning underneath.
We, the blockchain enthusiasts and crypto world.
The world is oing against us, but we responds well. I am aware of the strong impact that ETFs, CBDC and institutional entites are playing in the last months, all over the world. Europe has changed course, keeping a classical conservative position and restrict cryptos transaction and adoption, and apply illogical taxation.
The US is pormoting the new financial world, but in a election context, everything which permits vote to growth is a good investments, what will happen when the new president will be elected is still a question mark.
On the other side of the world, governments have adopted a proactive position, giving signs for a wider adoption and a favorable law condiction to permit a wider knowledge diffusion. The main concern to me is that few countries are already leading campaing and informative promotions to spread the knowledge about the whole topic, which is something people, especially the future generations, must to know. And we will find ourselves in a condiction of huge disparitive and informative asymmetry that will led to a economic deficit both under a systematic and financial side.
So this All Time High has an important weight in the today economic and financial landscape, beside the simple monetary result.
What's next?
Let's analysise in the following chart idea.
Your M-
Bitcoin- Consolidation before ATH, but what next?At this moment, a new all-time high for BINANCE:BTCUSD seems likely, especially given the consolidation just below the previous ATH and the technical target from the small symmetrical triangle, which could push BTC above 75k soon.
However, I think the broader push everyone anticipates may not materialize.
Even if BTC briefly surpasses 80k, a 10-15% gain might not mean much in the grand scheme.
The media frenzy and crypto influencers projecting Bitcoin to pass 100k by year-end raise some caution for me.
I anticipate a peak around 80k or so, followed by a pullback into the familiar 50k–70k range, rather than a sustained breakout.
In summary, while I may buy in the short term, I’ll be closely watching for signs of weakness.
If these appear, I’ll switch to a short position, as I believe a false breakout from this flag pattern is a realistic scenario.
Trading NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 28/10/2024 Last week highlighted the importance of a risk management plan for all traders using the Judas swing strategy as a case study. The strategy produced two trades on FX:GBPUSD and one on $EURUSD. Despite facing two losses and securing only one win, proper risk management ensured that the single win offset the losses, allowing us to end the week at breakeven. With these results in hand, we were excited to see what the upcoming week would bring. We got to our trading desk at 8:25EST and started our day by demarcating our trading zones.
Once we have demarcated our zones, we wait for the high or low of this zone to be swept, as this will assist us in determining our bias for the trading session. After 35 minutes, the high of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for potential selling opportunities during this trading session.
Next on our checklist is to wait for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the sell side. After an hour, we observed a BOS on the sell side, which resulted in a Fair Value Gap (FVG) being formed in the process
We must wait for the price to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). A trade can only be initiated once price has entered the FVG, and it is crucial to be patient and wait for the price to close before executing any trades. This waiting period acts as a filter to avoid scenarios where the candle entering the FVG proceeds to hit our stop-loss. The next five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap and closed, indicating that we can proceed with executing the trade
The position experienced a drawdown shortly after the trade was executed, but this did not concern us as we had only risked 1% of our trading account, targeting a 2% gain. Additionally, we implemented a minimum 10 pip stop loss to allow the trade sufficient space to fluctuate without prematurely stopping us out and then proceeding in our anticipated direction.
Upon checking the position later, we found it had shifted in our favor. However, we needed to remain composed since it had not yet reached our ultimate target. Our task was simply to be patient and wait for our targets to be achieved
Upon reevaluating the position, we noticed that price had returned to the entry point. At such moments, individuals who have risked more than they can afford may start to panic. That's why we continually stress the importance of only risking what you can afford to lose, as it greatly diminishes the emotional investment in trades. We have encountered situations like this before and will likely face them again. However, what remains within our control is the decision to risk only an amount we are comfortable with losing, which in turn lessens the emotional attachment to the trades.
According to our data, we can anticipate being in a position for an average of 11 hours, so the duration of this trade meeting our objective is not a concern we simply need to remain patient for it to occur. After 13 hours and 25 minutes, our patience was rewarded when our Take Profit (TP) was reached, resulting in a 2% gain on the OANDA:NZDUSD trade
EUR/ GBP ! 10/31 ! resistance SELL NOW EUR/ GBP trend forecast October 31, 2024
EUR/GBP trades slightly lower near 0.8360 early Thursday in Europe, easing after gains from the previous session. However, the Euro may find support as investors reduce expectations for a large ECB rate cut in December, following stronger-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone and Germany on Wednesday. Focus now shifts to Thursday's release of the Eurozone HICP.
H1 resistance - selling pressure exists in this area, besides, today's EUR news data is also predicted by experts to be bad, creating conditions for price to decrease.
/// SELL EUR/GBP : zone 1.83780 - 1.83980
SL: 1.84250
TP: 60 - 120 - 200 pips (1.81980)
Safe and profitable trading
U.S. Demand and Uncertainty Drive Oil VolatilityThe oil market continues to show strong oscillations, influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuations in global demand. Recently, oil prices rose on the back of a surprise drop in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, suggesting stronger-than-expected demand for the fuel. In early Asian trading, Brent (Ticker AT: BRENT) was up 0.65% at USD 73.02 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (Ticker AT: LCRUDE) was up 0.63% at USD 69.04 per barrel. These increases reflect the positive impact of US demand and reduced crude imports, extending a momentum that drove both contracts up by more than 2% on Wednesday.
At the start of the European session, the market did not correct this rise, but some downward pressure is perceptible. Technical indicators show a strong trading zone around USD 72.30 for Brent and USD 68.55 for WTI, with the RSI balanced at 50%, suggesting that the market could consolidate in this zone as support before a possible rise towards the end of the week.
Geopolitical and Oversupply Effect
Since Iran's attack on Israel on October 1, crude oil prices have experienced remarkable volatility. In October, Brent went as high as almost 10% in just four days, reaching USD 80 before retreating following an Israeli bombing in Iran on October 26. This led to a significant drop in prices on Monday 28, where Brent fell by more than 4% to USD 71.42, while WTI lost more than 5% to USD 67.38.
This situation takes place in a context of oversupply, where gasoline inventories in the US (Ticker AT: GASOLZ2024) have fallen to two-year lows. Against a backdrop of low global demand, both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC have revised their demand forecasts for this year, mainly due to the economic slowdown in China. Despite the stimulus in the Chinese economy, demand remains weak, affecting crude oil consumption projections.
Short and Medium-Term Outlook
The market is also watching the possibility of OPEC+ postponing a 180,000 barrels per day production increase planned for December in order to stabilize prices. In parallel, the upcoming U.S. presidential election and expectations of further stimulus in China could influence oil demand in the short term, the projection of its movement a price range for oil between USD 70 and USD 85 in the medium term.
This scenario reflects the complexities of the current market, where supply, demand and geopolitical events will continue to drive fluctuations in crude oil prices.
Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
GBPCHF Nearing Completion of Bearish Harmonic PatternGBPCHF Nearing Completion of Bearish Harmonic Pattern
Today, the economic calendar was empty, yet GBP displayed unusual bullish moves.
Considering that the price is near a strong zone where it has been rejected several times, the odds are that GBPCHF may move down again.
If the pattern completes, the price could drop from 1.1300.
However, given CHF's long-term strength, it's possible the price might decline even before the pattern's completion.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
How to Manage Gold RisesGold is likely to continue its upward trend.
And how I have been managing it both as an investor and a trader for the Gold. I hope this tutorial will be helpful for two groups of people:
1. Those who already have some positions and would like to know how to accumulate more, and
2. Those who do not yet have a position but are considering getting in and trading it, though you may be worried about entering at a peak, as gold continues to reach new highs.
Micro Gold Futures & Options
Ticker: MGC
Minimum fluctuation:
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
BTC Triangle Breakout StrategySharing my BTC setup on the 1-hour chart—currently breaking out of a triangle pattern. I've entered a position with a stop loss at 72,152 and a target of 73,600, aiming for a 2.5 risk-reward ratio in daily trading. This setup aligns with managing risk while catching potential momentum from the breakout. Keep following to track the outcome, and let’s exchange strategies on similar setups! 📉💬
Gold possible buy We traded for uptrend yesterday but we lost the trades, knowing your maximum drawdown is so important in this game, I accepted the outcome knowing that I can't control what's coming, I can only control the downside (Sl or risk) not upside (tp or target), liquidity has been created and cleared while entry has been activated for a buy, let's go
NB: Any of my ideas that the result isn't posted ended up in loss or Breakeven
Yes, it works on all timeframes... (ICT Concepts)In this video I just demonstrate a scalp based off of my process of of DOL>CS>Entry, and I do this on EURUSD, which is one of the pairs I have most experience in.
It is relatively simple and everything is explained in the video. If there are any questions, feel free to drop a comment.
- R2F
USDCHF is Already Bullish on the week...In Regards to Dollar Correlation,
We can expect Dollar to head lower now on a HTF.
With that being said,
A quick buy (in the turtle soup) up to grab liquidity, before heading down long term, would be ideal for the big boys controlling the market.
We do what they do.
Thats what we would do if we were them.
If you know what I mean, there you go ;)
If not, ask!
Goodluck,
X
EU Good News and Uncertain BoJ Hike Timing (past)Fundamentals & Sentiment
EUR:
- COT
- Recent ec.data (GDP, CPI)
USD:
- Risks: pre-election swings
Technical & Other
Setup: TC(B)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Up
Long-term: Up
Min target: 168.0
Stop loss: 0.22%
Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit
Pre-elections Trend Continuation BetFundamentals & Sentiment
GBP:
- COT
- S&P PMI Miss
USD:
- Ec. data (esp. JOLTS)
- Seasonality, pre-elections
Technical & Other
Setup: TC(RTF)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: Down
Long-term: Range
Min target: Local low
Stop loss: 0.18%
Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit
BTCUSD DailyPrice tapped in to the Weekly +OB twice, which is common.
Then price expanded toward the (DOL, ATH). But did not breake it, instead left relative equal highs.
From where price is now, we have the FVG and PDL (previous day low) below price.
My idea is that price wanna tap in to that area, then expand once more up to the target. (Deviation 2-3 of 3D OB)