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XRP in Overbought Conditions: Just Be CarefulXRP in Overbought Conditions: Just Be Careful XRP is nearing the completion of a bearish harmonic pattern. I am sharing this analysis as a warning that it could potentially move down from this zone. It's a very risky assumption because the entire crypto market is focused on the Trump Inauguration. However, considering this pattern, we cannot ignore it, at least to consider taking partial profits or being cautious about any possible crash and taking further steps. It is not recommended to sell if you believe it may continue to rise, but it's better to know where the price may react. XRP found a strong resistance zone between 3.5 - 3.53. The price may test the entire zone and could also take a pause before this pattern shows bearish signs. If the bearish correction begins, it may unfold as shown in the chart. You can find more details in the chart. Thank you!
Short
by KlejdiCuni
12
$BTC Inauguration Day Possible $140k? No I doubt it as this indicator I use isn’t always right at all it’s always either very positive or very negative. However this indicator remains plausible. But the fact we have already gone from FWB:98K to $109k today in only 1 hour. We might expect to see a sharp decline to somewhere like $104-$106k but even then this will be a short intra-day drop before a regaining of the overall bullish trend and sentiment. Do be cautious if you are on the Long and want to make profit soon keep eye on those entry or exit points of yours and don’t fall for any FOMO. Also IMO this is the start. The start of a large growth period. Yes there will be downs and BIGGER DOWNS THAN EVER BEFORE. Because the value and volume is larger than ever. The 10% drops can be $11k instead of at 30k that’s $3k. So remember that the larger loss ot seems from same % drops as before is just an illusion you still loose the same or gain the same amount of CRYPTOCAP:BTC coin. Stay strong KEEP BUYING! Let’s make more supply shock!? It only benefits everyone who owns it!
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by CryptoFerk
EUR/USD: Pre-Inauguration OutlookThis video is educational and not an analytical report. I share my perspective on the market, explain what to focus on, and provide a brief outlook on the future price movement. Today, EUR/USD continues its range-bound movement for the fourth day in a row. I believe this range may persist until the inauguration, or we might see a strong breakout precisely during that event. Watch the video, enjoy it, and feel free to ask questions — I’ll be happy to share more insights and discuss your ideas! #EURUSD #Forex #MarketAnalysis #Inauguration #Trading #Forecast #Finance #TradingEducation
by zibr-a
EUR/NZD Sell Trade – Targeting 1.83670 - Within 6 hoursPair: EUR/NZD Direction: Short 🔽 Target: 1.83670 🎯 Time Horizon: By Monday, Jan 20, 05:00 UTC ⏳ The pair has approached a key level and is showing signs of potential rejection. Recent price action indicates a likelihood of a retracement toward the 1.83670 level, in line with observed market behavior. This trade remains time-sensitive and is expected to develop by Monday at 05:00 UTC. Market factors, including EUR sentiment and NZD performance, could influence the trajectory. Monitoring closely for confirmation of anticipated movement 🔍.
Short
by GlobalHorns
Can the Yuan Dance to a New Tune?In the intricate ballet of global finance, the Chinese yuan performs a delicate maneuver. As Donald Trump's presidency introduces new variables with potential tariff hikes, the yuan faces depreciation pressures against a strengthening U.S. dollar. This dynamic challenges Beijing's economic strategists, who must balance the benefits of a weaker currency for exports against the risks of domestic economic instability and inflation. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is navigating this complex scenario with a focus on maintaining currency stability rather than aggressively stimulating growth through monetary policy easing. This cautious approach reflects a broader strategy to manage expectations and market reactions in an era where geopolitical shifts could dictate economic outcomes. The PBOC's recent moves, like suspending bond purchases and issuing warnings against speculative trades, illustrate a proactive stance in controlling the yuan's descent, aiming for an orderly adjustment rather than a chaotic fall. This situation provokes thought on the resilience and adaptability of China's economic framework. How will Beijing reconcile its growth ambitions with the currency's stability, especially under the looming shadow of U.S. trade policies? The interplay between these two economic giants will shape their bilateral relations and influence global trade patterns, investment flows, and perhaps even the future of monetary policy worldwide. As we watch this economic dance unfold, one must ponder the implications for international markets and the strategic responses from other global players.
Long
by UDIS_View
Eurogroup and Trump: Economic challenges in 2025The Eurogroup has kicked off the year with a strategy meeting in Brussels, coinciding with the inauguration of Donald Trump for his second term as president of the United States. The meeting, chaired by Paschal Donohoe, seeks to address the Eurozone's main economic challenges, including climate change, disruptive technologies and geopolitical uncertainties, with a special focus on transatlantic relations. Spain, represented by Minister Carlos Cuerpo, sees this meeting as key to strengthening European unity in the face of possible changes in U.S. policy. In addition, the forum will discuss innovations in wholesale payments and advances in the digital euro, reflecting its commitment to financial modernization. On the other hand, although outside the official agenda, France's fiscal deficit assessment will be highlighted, as it seeks to reduce it to 5.4% of GDP by 2025. The Eurogroup starts the year balancing internal and external priorities in a context of high global uncertainty. The Eurogroup meeting and Donald Trump's inauguration may have a significant impact on the EUR/USD pair, as both events generate uncertainty and expectations in financial markets. 1. Transatlantic relations and geopolitics: Trump's policies could influence U.S.-European trade and economic relations. If there is a perceived protectionist stance or increased tensions, this could weaken the euro against the dollar as investors seek safer assets in the US. 2. Technological innovations and the digital euro: Developments discussed at the Eurogroup, such as the digital euro, could build confidence in the modernization of the European financial system. This, in the medium and long term, could strengthen the euro if markets interpret that Europe is making progress in its financial competitiveness. 3. Fiscal policy in Europe: The lack of consensus on fiscal plans, as in the case of France, could raise concerns about economic stability in the Eurozone. This could put downward pressure on the euro if markets perceive that fiscal policies are not sufficiently sound. 4. Market sentiment: If the Eurogroup meeting shows unity and defines clear strategies in the face of global challenges, the euro could strengthen against the dollar. However, any sign of internal disagreement could be interpreted negatively, affecting the EUR/USD. Technical Analysis EUR/USD 1. Trend: Sideways consolidation with possible breakout. 2. Supports: 1.02603 and 1.1809 (key). 3. Resistances: 1.03303, 1.03524 (key). 4. Indicators: o RSI at 60.99% slight oversold. o MACD has crossed Signal softened at 2am. o 50 moving average has crossed with the 100 today at 6am. On track to cross with the 200 to indicate possible uptrend. 5. Scenarios: o On the upside: Breaking 1.0900 may lead to 1.1000. o Down: Losing 1.0800 points to 1.0730. 6. Key: In summary, the impact on EUR/USD will depend on expectations about Trump's policy and the markets' perception of the Eurogroup's ability to address economic and geopolitical challenges. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
by ActivTrades
Trump’s Inauguration Day and the Crypto BoostGood morning readers, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk about a historic event that is shaking not only U.S. politics but also financial markets and the world of cryptocurrencies: Donald Trump's Inauguration Day as the 47th President of the United States and the launch of the new memecoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA. Today, January 20, 2025, marks the beginning of a new chapter for the United States and global markets. Donald Trump, after a period of political and financial stagnation, is ready to take command again with a presidency that, like his previous ones, promises to shake the economic foundations of the country and the world. As investors and analysts prepare to face the first day of his presidency, many questions arise regarding the immediate and long-term impacts this event will have on the stock market and the global economy. But it’s not just politics that is drawing attention today: a new chapter in the world of cryptocurrencies is about to unfold, with the launch of the memecoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA, which serve as an interesting indicator of how politics and new technologies are influencing the modern economy. Trump’s First Day at the White House: Expectations and Market Impacts As we all know, Donald Trump is a figure capable of provoking polarized reactions. His return to the White House, after winning his second term, will not only be a historic moment politically but also a critical moment for global financial markets. What can we expect on the first day of his presidency? His unique style and unpredictable attitude could bring a new phase of volatility to the stock market, with effects on everything from fiscal policies to the regulation of financial sectors. In the first place, a strong reaction in international stock markets is expected, with investors ready to bet on Trump’s return, especially in the large tech and media companies, sectors that experienced notable growth during his first term. His deregulatory policies and business-friendly approach could stimulate growth in more volatile sectors such as energy and raw materials. However, risks will also arise: his aggressive rhetoric, particularly regarding China, global trade, and cryptocurrency regulation, could trigger periods of instability, impacting the foreign exchange market as well. Analysts suggest that tech stocks, particularly those related to the Internet and artificial intelligence, may react positively to the new presidency, thanks to the promise of lower taxes and incentives for startups and innovative companies. Additionally, stocks linked to the military and defense sectors, which had already gained during his first term, could further strengthen. The Economic Consequences of a Trump Presidency: What’s Ahead Once the oath is taken, it’s likely there will be an acceleration of fiscal policies and the strengthening of protectionist measures. Trump has already announced plans to implement further corporate tax cuts, encouraging national business growth and promoting internal innovation. However, this could also raise concerns about public debt, creating a tension between economic growth and the risk of over-indebtedness. In the short term, expectations are for an acceleration in the growth of infrastructure-related sectors, such as construction and real estate. His political agenda, already focused on economic stimuli and tax cuts, will likely have a positive impact on these areas. Experts expect a rise in benchmark indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, especially in the tech sector, but uncertainty regarding his foreign policy actions, particularly towards China, could cause fluctuations and increase risk. The market could be characterized by greater volatility, with peaks of optimism and moments of retracement. Another key factor will be the market’s reaction to Trump’s first moves regarding cryptocurrency and blockchain regulation, a topic that has been frequently discussed during his campaign. $TRUMP and $MELANIA: Integrating Politics with the World of Cryptocurrencies Beyond the political dimension, one truly fascinating aspect of Trump’s first day is the introduction of the memecoins $TRUMP and $MELANIA. These cryptocurrencies are not just a novelty in the crypto world but a full-fledged phenomenon that blends politics with financial speculation. In a market traditionally seen as highly volatile and speculative, memecoins are already an institution, but Trump’s move could take these coins to a whole new level. $TRUMP and $MELANIA are coins linked to the image and persona of two of America’s most influential figures. But what does this mean for the cryptocurrency market and the global economy? Memecoins, in general, are digital assets whose growth is primarily fueled by social media fervor and speculation from younger investors who are passionate about pop culture. However, with Trump’s brand behind these cryptocurrencies, we can expect a much larger impact. The same polarization that has characterized his political career could translate into strong speculative demand for $TRUMP, driving its volatility up. Implications for the Stock Market: The Influence of Cryptocurrencies While Trump’s policies may stimulate growth in various sectors, the introduction of $TRUMP and $MELANIA as speculative assets could push financial markets in new directions. It is possible that the stock market, while continuing to follow the real economy, will be influenced by the growing interest in cryptocurrencies. Memecoins could also drive niche investors to refocus their resources toward these coins, further increasing liquidity in the cryptocurrency sector and diverting capital away from more traditional stock assets. The introduction of memecoins could also lead governments to reconsider their crypto regulations, creating a new phase of regulatory uncertainty that could have direct impacts on traditional financial markets. Conclusions: A New Era of Volatility and Opportunity Trump’s return to the White House and the launch of his memecoins represent two crucial factors that could lead to a new era of volatility in both the stock market and cryptocurrencies. While economic and political uncertainty could fuel short-term fluctuations, the adoption of memecoins could open up new speculative growth scenarios for those willing to seize the opportunity. For investors, the key will be to maintain an informed and vigilant perspective, navigating the opportunities offered by the crypto sector alongside the instability of global financial markets. Trump’s presidency is set to deeply influence economic dynamics, but it will be interesting to observe how these influences reflect in the world of cryptocurrencies and, ultimately, the stock market.
MARKETSCOM:BITCOINEducation
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Gold to Shine Bright on Fundamentals, Seasonality & Sentiments“Gold is money. Everything else is credit” said John Pierpont Morgan some 100+ years ago. Gold is limited in supply. Much of what can be mined has been dug up. Gold bugs opine that the only way for gold prices is up as fiat money continues to be printed with nothing but institutional promises backing them. As a result, not only is the price of gold inching up, but the value commanded by fiat money continues to contract. GOLD’S RISE HAS REMAINED UNSTOPPABLE DURING THE LAST TWO YEARS Gold, as represented by CME Gold Futures, was up 1.45x delivering a stunning 13.5% gain in 2023 followed by a record-shattering 27% gain in 2024. These stellar returns were delivered with a 20-day rolling realised volatility averaging south of 14% commanding a Sharpe Ratio of more than one. The World Gold Council analysis shows that gold outperformed US stocks, EM equities, bonds, and commodities. LBMA Gold prices surged by 25.5% while printing 40 all-time highs in 2024 with the most recent high of USD 2,777.80/oz on 30th October 2024. This remarkable growth was driven by strong demand from central banks and institutional investors combined with rising geopolitical risks. Source: gold.org After such a stunning rally these last two years, what to expect from gold in 2025? First, recapping the rationale for gold. GOLD REMAINS A HEDGE AGAINST SUSTAINED INFLATION, DEBASEMENT, & TRUST DEFICIT Gold has long been considered a safeguard against economic uncertainties, particularly during periods when confidence in financial institutions and government policies wanes. This perception is rooted in gold's intrinsic value and its independence from any single nation's economic policies, making it a preferred asset during times of trust deficit. Several factors have reinforced gold's role as a hedge against trust deficit, key among them being: • Geopolitical Tensions : Ongoing global conflicts and political instability have heightened investor anxiety, leading many to seek refuge in gold. Its value appreciates when geopolitical risks escalate, reflecting its status as a haven asset. • Fiscal Policies & Debt Levels : Concerns over rising national debts and fiscal deficits, particularly in major economies like the United States, have prompted investors to turn to gold. Analysts suggest that gold benefits from apprehensions about the trajectory of U.S. debt and deficits, serving as a buffer against potential fiscal crises. • Inflation & Currency Depreciation : Fears of inflation and currency devaluation have further increased gold's appeal. As a tangible asset, gold is perceived as a store of value that can preserve wealth against the eroding effects of inflation & currency debasement. Moreover, during periods of financial market volatility, gold has demonstrated its effectiveness as a portfolio diversifier. Its low correlation with other asset classes allows it to mitigate losses during market downturns, providing stability when trust diminishes. In summary, gold's enduring value and independence from centralized financial systems make it a reliable hedge against trust deficit. Investors seeking portfolio protection turn to gold as a haven. GOLD HAS HEADROOM TO RISE EVEN HIGHER IN 2025 State Street Global Advisors ("SSGA") cite three primary reasons for being bullish on Gold in 2025. These include (a) Continued central bank purchases, (b) Rising consumer demand in China & India as domestic gold ETFs proliferate, and (c) US monetary easing and the potential for the new Trump administration’s fiscal policies to expand deficits. Central banks have been accumulating gold at the fastest pace in recent record. Consistent buying in the past three years despite surging prices point to long-term strategic considerations beyond price sensitivity. Gold’s inverse relationship with the US dollar remains misunderstood. The USD is as strong today as it was at the start of the century, while gold has appreciated 813% in the same period. A strong dollar does not necessarily make gold bearish. New Trump Administration to be sworn-in later today (20th Jan 2025) also serves as a tailwind to gold prices. During Trump 2.0, the President's proposed tariff policies are likely to accelerate the de-dollarisation trend and be compounded by rising geopolitical risks. Collectively, this will push central banks and consumers to seek shelter in gold. Source: SSGA.com SSGA has a base case scenario (with a 50% likelihood) of gold trading between USD 2,600 to USD 2,900 an ounce. It also sets out a bull case with a 30% chance of gold price ranging between USD 2,900 to USD 3,100 an ounce. A bear case alternative (20% chance) of gold prices pulling back to trade between USD 2,200 to USD 2,600 per ounce. GOLD ETF FLOWS HAVE BEEN ROBUST IN 2025 The GLD ETF has seen substantial positive inflows into the fund so far this year. Barring four days of net outflows, large inflows on 10/Jan and 17/Jan have contributed to additional AUM of USD 579.22 million into the GLD ETF taking the total AUM to USD 76.74 billion. Post-election results, the GLD ETF witnessed multiple days of fund outflows and those have been more than offset with fresh funds moving into the ETF signalling bullish investor sentiment. SEASONALITY FAVORS A BULLISH STANCE IN GOLD Save for February & June, Gold Futures have generated positive returns during the first half of the year delivering 6.6% upside gains on average over the last ten years. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP A confluence of fundamentals, seasonality, and sentiment points to near to medium-term bullishness in gold prices. This paper posits a hypothetical trade setup consisting of a long position in CME Micro Gold Futures contract expiring on 28th April 2025 (MGCJ2025). Each Micro Gold Futures contract provides an exposure to 10 troy ounces. Both standard-sized gold futures (GC) and the newly launched 1-ounce gold futures offer avenues to express bullish sentiment on the yellow metal. This comprehensive suite of gold futures is tailored to enhance flexibility and precision, empowering investors to capitalize on market opportunities effectively. • Entry: USD 2,754/oz • Target: USD 2,880/oz • Stop: USD 2,670/oz • P&L at Target (per lot): +1,260 ((2,880 – 2,754) x 10) • P&L at Stop (per lot): -840 ((2,754 – 2,670) x 10) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
COMEX_MINI:MGCJ2025Long
by mintdotfinance
The Effect of Sun in Capricorn on GoldThe Effect of Sun in Capricorn on Gold (21st December - 30 Days Forward) Historically, when the Sun transitions into Capricorn, gold exhibits a 90% probability of bullish movement within the following 30 days. Key Observations: 1. Seasonal Bullish Pattern The Sun in Capricorn often marks a period of increased demand or positive sentiment for gold, driving prices higher during this phase. 2. Current Market Dynamics - While many analysts predict further declines, with a potential target at $2,540 after breaking below the base level, I hold a contrarian view. - The current price action resembles a retest of the broken base, which many expect to confirm a downtrend. However, I believe this retest will serve as a setup for the price to re-enter the base and establish a bullish trend. 3. Swing Low Opportunity This could represent the final swing low of the year, offering a significant buying opportunity for traders who anticipate a return to higher levels. 4. Bullish Momentum Potential Once the price reclaims the base, the structure will likely support a rally towards key resistance levels outlined in the previous analysis, leading to a bullish breakout scenario. Conclusion: Despite the bearish narrative and the possibility of further drops, my perspective suggests a bullish reversal is on the horizon. Traders should watch for signs of strength as the price moves back into its base, signaling the beginning of a new bullish trend to close the year on a high note.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Rich_From_Home
USD/MXN Buy Trade – Targeting 20.78338 Pair: USD/MXN 🇺🇸🇲🇽 Direction: Long 🔼 Target: 20.78338 🎯 Time Horizon: By Monday, Jan 20, 04:00 UTC ⏳ The pair has exhibited a downward movement, showing potential signs of a reversal. Current market behavior suggests a possible recovery toward the 20.78338 level, aligning with observed patterns in recent sessions. This trade is time-sensitive and expected to reach its conclusion by Monday at 04:00 UTC. External factors, such as market sentiment and USD-related developments, may influence the trajectory. Close observation is recommended for further confirmation of the anticipated price action. 🔍
Long
by GlobalHorns
GBP/USD Sell Trade – Targeting 1.21715Pair: GBP/USD 💷 Direction: Short 🔽 Target: 1.21715 🎯 Time Horizon: By Sunday, Jan 19, 23:00 UTC ⏳ The pair is currently experiencing resistance near recent highs, with market behavior suggesting a potential pullback toward the 1.21715 level. A downward move could align with the ongoing price action observed in recent sessions. This trade is time-sensitive and expected to reach its objective by Sunday at 23:00 UTC. Broader market influences, including USD-related developments, may play a role in the price trajectory. Monitoring closely for further confirmation of expected market movement 🔍.
Short
by GlobalHorns