Checking the trend change after the volatility period
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
This volatility period is expected to last from June 21st to 23rd.
Therefore, it is necessary to check the trend formed after the volatility period.
The 99705.62 point is the HA-High indicator point of the 1W chart, so it is important to see if there is support near this point.
If it falls without support, it may fall to around 89294.25.
The 89294.25 point is the HA-Low indicator point of the 1D chart.
Since the M-Signal indicator of the 1W chart is rising to around 99705.62, the area around 99705.62 is likely to play an important role as support and resistance.
Even if it turns upward, it must rise above the HA-High indicator point of 108316.90 of the 1D chart to maintain the price.
If not, it is likely to fall again.
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The fact that the HA-High indicator was created means that it fell from the high point range.
In other words, if it falls below the HA-HIgh indicator point, it is likely to start a downtrend.
However, since the HA-High indicator is an intermediate value, if it is supported near the HA-High indicator, it is possible to show a stepwise upward trend.
The end point of the high point is the DOM (60) indicator.
Therefore, it should be interpreted that it has risen above the high point section only if it rises above the 111696.21 point.
Therefore, depending on how the 108316.90-111696.21 section is broken upward, an upward trend can be predicted.
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There are auxiliary indicators OBV indicators made of Low Line ~ High Line channels and PVT-MACD oscillator indicators.
The OBV indicator made of Low Line ~ High Line channels is an indicator that can see how the channel is structured, and whether OBV falls below the Low Line of the channel or rises above the High Line.
Therefore, you can predict the future trend based on the channel pattern.
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The PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is an indicator created by adding the Close value dash PVT value to the MACD formula.
Therefore, it shows a similar appearance to the MACD oscillator indicator.
The reason for looking at the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is to find out how the trading volume flows.
There are many trading volume indicators, but I think this PVT-MACD oscillator indicator reflects the trading volume flow well.
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However, you should look at the support and resistance points where the changes in the movement of the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator, the OBV indicator created by the Low Line ~ High Line channel, and the StochRSI indicator occur.
If the changes in these indicators occur near the DOM(-60), HA-Low, HA-High, and DOM(60) indicator points, it can be of great help in creating a trading strategy.
The DOM(-60) indicator indicates the end point of the low point.
That is, falling below the DOM(-60) indicator means that it has entered the low point range, and there is a high possibility that it will show a full-scale downtrend.
The fact that the HA-Low indicator was created means that it has left the low point range.
That is, if it rises above the HA-Low indicator, it means that there is a high possibility that an uptrend will begin.
However, since the HA-Low indicator is an intermediate value, if it encounters resistance and falls, it is possible that it will show a stepwise downtrend.
Therefore, whether there is support in the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low range is important.
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Currently, the OBV indicator created as the Low Line ~ High Line channel has fallen below the Low Line.
Therefore, we need to look at whether the Low Line ~ High Line channel will change to a downtrend channel in the future.
We need to look at whether an 'M'-shaped pattern indicating a trend change occurs.
Since the PVT-MACD oscillator indicator is still below the 0 point, it can be seen that the selling force is dominant.
However, since the oscillator is maintaining an upward trend, you can see that the overall selling pressure is decreasing.
Even so, since it is located near the HA-High indicator, the resistance in the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section is expected to be considerable.
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Support and resistance points should be drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts.
This will increase accuracy.
However, since the standard time frame chart for all indicators is a 1D chart, it is most important to check the flow of the 1D chart.
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You may think it is difficult because you have to look at multiple indicators at once.
The most important thing is to look at the movement when approaching the HA-Low or HA-High indicator.
The reason is that the basic trading strategy is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Here is a description of the big picture.
(3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern)
I will explain more details when the bear market starts.
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Beyond Technical Analysis
Can XAUUSD Continue to Go Up?Last week was a bearish one for XAUUSD, following a strong bullish surge the week prior. The key question now is: can gold reclaim the highs it reached two weeks ago?
From a macro perspective, institutions remain net long and have even increased their long positions, signaling continued confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset. On the geo-economic front, tensions in the Middle East persist, with growing involvement from the U.S., adding to the uncertainty that typically supports gold prices.
Personally, I maintain a bullish bias on XAUUSD for now, supported by both fundamental and geopolitical drivers. However, if the landscape changes — whether through technical invalidation or shifts in sentiment — I’m prepared to adapt accordingly.
6/23 Gold Analysis and Trading ViewsGood morning, everyone!
Over the weekend, former President Trump announced and carried out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, triggering a renewed wave of risk-off sentiment in the markets. At today’s open, gold surged to around 3394. Driven by geopolitical tensions, the bearish technical structure has temporarily been disrupted.
Whether the bullish momentum can sustain will depend on how the situation continues to unfold.
Key technical levels to watch today:
Resistance: 3389 / 3407 / 3423 / 3432
Support: 3372 / 3365 / 3356 / 3348
Trading strategy: Given the current news-driven market, a buy-on-dip approach is preferred, with short positions as a secondary option depending on price reaction near resistance zones.
Also, pay close attention to today’s daily close (1D chart). If the price closes below 3355, it could signal profit-taking from the bulls, potentially pulling gold back into a bearish technical trend.
Your Edge Isn’t Just Technical, It’s PersonalMost traders obsess over their strategy: Which indicator? What session? What entry signal?
But very few stop to ask the question that could change everything: “Does this style actually fit who I am?”
The Truth Most Don’t Talk About
Trading success is not about copying someone else’s edge. It’s about discovering your own edge, and that begins with self-awareness .
And it hit deep because this is the part of trading psychology we often skip.
Some Real Talk
If you’re naturally calm and risk-averse, trying to scalp news spikes will drain you.
If you’re fast-thinking, decisive, and love volatility, swing trading might feel like watching paint dry.
If you thrive on rules and structure, discretionary trading might feel chaotic.
If you're intuitive and adaptive, being forced into mechanical rules may kill your edge.
You’re not underperforming because you lack discipline, you’re likely just misaligned.
What Changed for Me
I stopped trying to “be the trader” everyone said I should be. And I started trading like me.
I built a system that fits my mental rhythm.
I gave myself permission to simplify.
I became consistent not because of a new setup, but because I removed internal friction.
Final Thought:
Your best trades don’t just come from the chart. They come from a place of alignment, when your mindset, risk tolerance, and system flow together. So before chasing another strategy, ask yourself: “Is my trading style in tune with my personality?”
craziest biggest yugest risk on right now? what is war and bomb?craziest biggest yugest risk on right now? what is war and bomb?
Let us know!
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ETH Short SetupWell... Eth just lost its only support; atleast, I think it did (I'm no eth 'expert').
Would like to try a short at $2363. Could maybe even top out at the highs of current structure (which would indicate a retest of the support level), but I know that you should use the latest PA as a reference for resistance, which would be the structure at $2363.
Will enter a short if it goes up from here without falling further down (I don't want price to create this structure ------> fall down and create new structure below ------> go back up and get above current structure, as this would create new support).
Invalidation would be price getting to the middle of the structure which would mean that my entry wasn't resistance. Price would then also have spent some time above the lost support-level, which then could be bullish.
SL = red dashed line at $2680.
exposing the inner workings of the illusive 'black box'Black box reveal
I was debating whether i'd ever share this publicly, but i came to an agreement with myself and decided to share this out of commission model. With the knowledge that comes with understanding predictive quant models, I was able to derive patterns the had arisen in the market via matching algorithms which gave me the ability to predict where a market was likely to open, make a high, make a low, and close on any given day where no news was being priced in. I was always told to keep my findings private, but no one wins if I do that, so I decided to share and the individuals that have the ability and care to figure out the puzzle for themselves can do so with this as a starting point. Im writing this post in one take so I apologize for any grammatical errors. In tradingview's LEAP challenge i've kinda been blowing my account over the last week and have just under 80% profit and no open positions with a week to go before it ends, so this post is also for people to look back and see if intraday trading can catapult my account. Good luck to all the participants!
#XAUUSD #GOLD 4H#XAUUSD 4H Trade Update
Gold continues to respect its bullish market structure, with clear Breaks of Structure (BOS) and formation of higher lows. Currently, price is consolidating around a key ascending trendline and demand zone.
📍 Entry Zone: 3,340 – 3,345
🎯 Targets: 3,370 / 3,390 / 3,400
❌ Stop-Loss: Below 3,315
This setup was shared yesterday and has since been perfectly activated as price tapped into our marked demand zone.
#Gold #Silver #ForexTrading #XAUUSD #PriceAction
Nasdaq continuation sellsH4: STILL BULLISH INTERNALLY WITH OUR LAST SIGNIFICANT HL AT 21000
-Possible major chOch on H4 is very possible due to the HTF major zone we at
-Wait for proper H1 & lower tineframe confirmations before jumping in any trades
H1: BEARISH MARKET STRUCTURE STARTING TO PLAY WITH LAST LH AT 21925
-Potential continuation of sells all the way down to take out H4 hl a 21000
-We recently broke below a buying range on H1 & created a selling range
-Possible pullback buys before sells within that range are imminent
M15: We have a nice supply+fvg for sells at 21835
-Wait for price to pullback in there then M1 chOch then attack
Can 6 Holes in a mountain move gold this week? 23-27 June 2025Hello fellow traders of OANDA:XAUUSD
All about last week here
Since Israel's attack on Iran on Friday, June 13th, aimed at destroying all facilities for potential nuclear weapons production, the gold price initially rose to $3450. This surge lasted until Monday, June 16th, during the European session, but then began to fall from there. 📉🔻
Signs of potential peace talks and a swift end to the conflict largely made investors hesitant to invest. Throughout the week, the gold price mostly reacted negatively to higher prices due to investor uncertainty. This was further exacerbated by the fact that the US had not yet entered this war, which Israel initiated. 🕊️😟
However, since the US attack with bunker-busting bombs on the nuclear facilities on June 21st, they are now part of the conflict. Not least for this reason, they might become the target of retaliatory strikes, as already announced by the Iranian regime. 💣💥
If one looks at the timeline of news and announcements regarding potential US involvement in this war, and the two-week waiting period announced by President Trump, it will certainly become clear that this was nothing more than tactics. It was foreseeable that the US would become involved in the conflict, not least because the Israelis lack the appropriate weapons. The possibility of the US providing these weapons to the Israelis was also in the news; however, it then became clear that this specific bomb could only be used by the Stealth Bomber B2. This made it evident that it was only a matter of timing when it would happen, and they naturally wanted to keep that secret – anything else would be nonsensical anyway. 🤫✈️
What's to be expected next? Regarding this conflict, I hope for a swift end. 🕊️🙏 As for the gold price, well, I still believe in a new All-Time High (ATH). 🚀🌟 Will it come this week? Possibly. But the much more important question is whether the Iranian regime will truly dare to attack the US and exact revenge. 🤔⚔️
Market Structure:
The chart shows a clear shift from bullish 🐂 to bearish 🐻 structure. We see a significant high around June 13th at approximately $3,451, followed by a break of structure with lower highs and lower lows forming. 📉
Key Levels: 🔑
Premium levels: The area around $3,440-$3,451 represents premium pricing where institutional selling likely occurred. 💎
Fair Value Gaps: There appear to be several imbalances/gaps that price may seek to fill, particularly around the $3,380-$3,400 zone. 🎯
Order Blocks: The consolidation areas around $3,320-$3,340 and $3,380-$3,400 represent potential institutional order blocks. 🧱
Institutional Levels: 🏦
Psychological resistance: $3,450 level acted as significant resistance. 🚧
Current support cluster: $3,320-$3,340 area showing multiple touches. 🛡️
Liquidity zones:
The recent lows around $3,293 represent buy-side liquidity that institutions may target. 💧
Fibonacci Analysis: 📏
Based on the major swing from the low around June 9th ($3,300) to the high on June 13th ($3,451):
50% retracement: ~$3,375 (already tested and failed) 📉
61.8% retracement: ~$3,357 (near current price action) ✨
78.6% retracement: ~$3,337 (aligns with support cluster) ✅
Gann Concepts: 🔢
The timing shows potential significance around the June 13th high, with subsequent price action following geometric price relationships. The current price action around $3,328 suggests we're testing important Gann square relationships from the cycle highs. 📐
Cycle Timing: ⏰
The approximately 10-day cycle from low to high to current retracement suggests we may be in a corrective phase that could extend into late June, with potential for cycle lows around the June 25-27 timeframe based on typical precious metals cycles. 🗓️
Current Assessment:
Price appears to be in a corrective phase testing the $3,320-$3,340 institutional support zone. A break below could target the cycle lows, while a hold here with reclaim of $3,380 could indicate accumulation for the next leg higher. ⚖️🔍
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
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This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
BTCUSD CRACKing Everywhere!As I have been warning for a while now. See previous post.
I first warned to wait for the CRACK!
Then we got the 2nd CRACK!, very normal.
Then a nice M pattern with a lower high.
Then another CRACK!
And now a right Shoulder.
MAGIC!
Now we wait for the H&S to break down.
Click boost, follow, and subscribe for more. Let's get to 5,000 followers. ))
BUY BTCUSDBitcoin (BTC/USD) is showing signs of a strong bullish reversal off a major demand zone at $98,000.**
If price holds above this level and confirms with continued bullish candles, the likely trajectory is toward the resistance zone around $110,000–$111,200.
The forecast structure suggests a clean trend recovery pattern. However, manage risk tightly — as a breakdown below the demand zone could flip the narrative to bearish.
Market Structure 1hr According to what's happening between Iran and Isreal and Trump has attacked Iran in my anticipation and what I do see in the marketplace honestly right now and how the markets has been moving its so terrible so being more careful is important but am anticipating lower prices in this market NAS100 Index, that's not calling it for anybody to short but that's what am thinking is going to happen, it's going to be a nice week ahead at Sunday opening and there we shall see where we want to roll to
BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin has once again failed to break above its previous high and entered a corrective phase. The price is now moving within a channel and is approaching the lower boundary of that channel.
The correction is expected to continue toward the support zone and the bottom of the channel, where we may see buying interest and a bullish reaction.
If Bitcoin breaks above the channel resistance and key supply zone, it could trigger a strong upward move and lead to new all-time highs.
Key Note:
Price action near the channel support and demand zone will be crucial. A successful rebound from this area may signal the start of the next bullish leg.
Will Bitcoin hold the channel and bounce higher, or is a deeper correction ahead? Share your thoughts below! 🤔👇
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Potential 3000+pips on XXXUSD PairsGBPUSD
We anticipate a potential bullish move towards the 1.3540 region, from there, we'll be watching closely for sign of exhaustion to initiate a short position, targeting up to 300pips to the downside. A confirmed daily close below the 1.2270 level will serve as out trigger to hold the short position with confidence,
EURUSD
For this market, we remain cautiously bearish. A 4H timeframe close below the 1.3950 region will be our signal to begin more sells to the downside targets around 1.3400 and 1.12800 zones. Until that breakdown occurs, we'll remain on the side-lines to avoid premature entries.
XAUUSD
Gold will be traded with a high level of discipline- only high conviction trades will be taken here. We're currently waiting for a clear breAK and close below the 3291.90 level before initiating any shorts positions. Until then, we maintain a neutral stance and monitor price action closely around key levels.
USOIL
We're keeping an eye on possible entry opportunities, anticipating a potential rally towards the 116 region. Updates on the setup and validation criteria will follow as price action unfolds.
Send a direct message if you are interested in more info about Capital Management.
Patience is the Way! Ieios