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Beyond Technical Analysis

4/3 Gold Trading StrategiesTariff concerns and inflation have once again triggered significant volatility in gold. After yesterday’s price surge following news announcements, today’s market opened with continued bullish momentum, reaching around 3170. For traders who managed to keep up with the market rhythm, this was a golden opportunity—but for those caught on the wrong side, it was a disaster. The persistent price rally has put short sellers under significant pressure. While I hope most of you are in long positions, I also understand that’s not always the case. For those stuck in short trades, the key now is to minimize losses or even turn the situation into a profit. Based on the current price structure, I expect a high-level pullback. If your short position isn't causing serious damage to your account, holding on could be a viable strategy. The expected trading range includes a high point at 3166-3178 and a low point at 3138-3123. Additionally, several key technical levels need to be monitored for potential reversals. Trading Recommendations: 📌 Main Trades: Sell in the 3166-3182 range Buy in the 3136-3121 range 📌 Short-Term Scalping: Be flexible in the 3147-3158 range Manage your risk carefully and adjust your trades based on market movements! 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by China_MsWang
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 3rd April 2024)Bias: Bullish USD News(Red Folder): -Unemployment Claims -ISM Services PMI Analysis: -Strong bullish momentum after US tariffs being announced -Looking for retest of the bullish structure -Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe -Pivot point: 3100 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by HM_fxtrading
Bitcoin Update: Testing Critical Resistance LevelsCurrent Market Analysis Bitcoin is currently in a crucial position as it challenges the resistance of the downtrend channel. The current price action shows that Bitcoin is testing a significant technical level that has acted as resistance throughout the recent downtrend. What makes this particular test interesting is that the supply signature appears to be weakening compared to previous instances when Bitcoin approached this resistance level. The Importance of the Confluence Level This represents a critical confluence point where multiple technical factors align, creating a stronger resistance zone. Breaking above this level would be technically significant as it could trigger what analysts refer to as a "Change of Behavior" in Bitcoin's price action. A Change of Behavior often precedes larger trend reversals, making this current test particularly noteworthy for market participants trying to determine Bitcoin's next major move. However, caution remains the prevailing sentiment until confirmation occurs. What Needs to Happen Next The market remains skeptical about Bitcoin's ability to continue higher without first clearing this technical hurdle. This reflects the technical reality that downtrend channels often require decisive breaks on higher volume to confirm their invalidation. While early signs appear promising with selling pressure seemingly diminishing, a clear breakout has not yet materialized. Volume Requirements for Confirmation A key component missing from the current picture is sufficient trading volume to support a breakout. This highlights an important technical principle in market analysis: significant technical breaks generally require increased volume to validate the move and increase the probability of continuation. Without this volume component, fake breakouts become more likely, potentially trapping buyers who entered positions prematurely. To summarize the current Bitcoin situation: Price is testing the resistance of the downtrend channel Supply signature (selling pressure) appears to be weakening A break above the confluence level could trigger a Change of Behavior Confirmation requires breaking above resistance with increased volume While early signs of weakening selling pressure provide some optimism, a cautious stance remains appropriate until Bitcoin can decisively break above the confluence resistance level with appropriate volume confirmation. Traders and investors should watch for this potential breakout, as it could signal a more significant shift in Bitcoin's price trend if the technical conditions described are met in the coming trading sessions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Wyckoff_Analytics
Silver (XAG/USD) - Bearish Breakdown from Rising Wedge!Market Overview: The Silver (XAG/USD) 1-hour chart reveals a Rising Wedge pattern, which is a well-known bearish reversal formation. This suggests that the recent bullish trend is losing momentum, and a breakdown could lead to a significant price decline. 🔹 Key Technical Analysis 1️⃣ Rising Wedge Formation & Breakdown The price has been moving within a rising wedge, characterized by higher highs and higher lows but with weakening momentum. A breakdown has occurred, confirming the bearish structure as the price has failed to sustain higher levels. Historically, when a rising wedge breaks to the downside, price tends to drop by the same height as the wedge itself, which aligns with our projected target zone. 2️⃣ Price Action & Retest Possibility After the breakdown, a retest of the broken wedge support (now resistance) around $33.50 - $33.80 could provide a potential short-selling opportunity. If price fails to reclaim the wedge support, further downside pressure is expected. 3️⃣ Downside Target & Support Zone The measured move suggests a decline towards the $31.00 - $30.60 region, which coincides with a strong historical support zone. This area is highlighted as a potential profit-taking level for short trades. 📉 Trading Plan - Short Setup 🔸 Entry: Look for a rejection from the $33.50 - $33.80 zone (previous wedge support, now resistance). 🔸 Stop Loss: Above $34.00 to protect against false breakouts. 🔸 Take Profit: $31.00 - $30.60 (previous demand area). 🔸 Risk-Reward Ratio: Favorable setup, ensuring proper risk management. 🛑 Risk Factors to Consider ⚠️ If Silver regains strength and breaks back above $34.00, it could invalidate the bearish breakdown and shift momentum back to the upside. ⚠️ Macroeconomic events such as inflation data, Fed speeches, or geopolitical factors could influence price action unpredictably.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by ForexOptimizer
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Breakout: Next Target $3,181?"Key Observations: Current Price: Gold is trading at $3,127.450 at the time of the chart. Trend: The chart exhibits a strong uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows. Support Levels: Several support levels are marked in the $3,010 - $2,999 range, extending down to around $2,906. Resistance and Target: The immediate price range is highlighted, suggesting possible consolidation. A breakout above this range could lead to a target around $3,181. Chart Annotations: A retracement (red structure) indicates a short-term correction before continuation. A breakout structure (black lines) suggests a previous significant upward movement. The range and possible continuation are marked, indicating that the price may consolidate before attempting to reach the target. Trading Perspective: If price holds above the range, we may see bullish continuation towards $3,181. A break below support levels could signal a deeper pullback towards $3,010 or lower. This chart suggests a bullish outlook, with potential for more upside if momentum continues. Traders might look for confirmations before entering long positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PIPsOptimizer
The Day AheadWednesday, April 2 Data Releases: US March ADP report, February factory orders, Japan March monetary base, France February budget balance. Central Banks: Speeches from Fed’s Kugler, ECB's Schnabel, and Escriva. Trump Tariff Announcement: Trump’s team is finalizing options for a 4 p.m. announcement, considering a tiered system with flat rates or a customized approach. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Paradigm Shift: Markets in Tension over Trump's New TariffsBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst at ActivTrades The recent announcement of tariffs by Donald Trump's administration has generated a wave of uncertainty in financial markets. This measure could trigger a forceful response from the European Union, marking a paradigm shift in global trade and in the European bloc's economic strategy. Reactions in Europe and the ECB Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), has stressed the need for Europe to move towards greater economic independence. Her statements suggest that the EU will not back down from protectionist measures and that its fiscal and financial policy will have to adapt to this new global context. It can be sensed from the statements that countries such as Germany and Italy, with a strong dependence on automotive exports, could be among the most affected. In addition, strategic sectors such as steel and aluminum would face an increase in production costs and possible interruptions in supply chains. Spain and Poland could be affected in the strategic raw materials sector as one of the most powerful net exporters in Europe. Especially Spain, given that it dedicates a large part of its aluminum exports to the North American country. Economic and Financial Impact A tariff-based trade war could slow growth, increase unemployment and generate a disinflationary or even deflationary environment not only in the United States but also in the European economic region. In this context, the bond market has begun to discount further interest rate cuts, reflecting declines in longer maturity yields and break-even inflation rates. Expectations of Europe, and even traditional allied countries Canada and its rapprochement with Europe, as well as Japan and Korea showing approaches to China, could be demarcating a red line for the White House in terms of its foreign policy form. What Trump will have to consider if the market begins to respond so negatively to such an “enemy of trade” attitude, and especially such a “bad friend” to his traditional allies. Another key factor to consider is the NATO-NATO section where Europe may eventually displace the US from the grouping. DAX Analysis (Ticker AT: GER40) The German index has started the Asian session with a sideways movement and 2 hours before the European opening there have been strong falls after the alliance comments in Asia. The situation of the index seems to have reached a floor around 22,241 points generating a possible support this Wednesday. If we look at the trend, the index has reached highs twice last month on March 6 and 18, marking on the second occasion a new milestone trading at 23,480.22 points, generating a return to a range where the index is comfortable this year between 22,918 points and 22,105 points, with the annual lows at 22,209.21 points. The current situation is indicating a possible golden crossover to reverse the current situation. The Current Control Point (POC) is located at 22,967.56 points, so it would not be unusual with the increase in volume and with an oversold RSI at 44.93%, it is possible that the index climbs to 22,522 points in its mid-range zone and try to pierce if the news accompanies the Euro zone and in particular Germany and the companies that make up the index. If this happens, we could see an advance to the upper part of the range slightly below the indicated checkpoint. Future Outlook If the Trump administration maintains its uncompromising trade strategy, pressure on European financial markets could intensify. The EU, for its part, will have to assess possible countermeasures to protect its economy and maintain stability in an increasingly challenging environment. At ActivTrades, we are closely following these developments and their impact on global markets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:GER40Long
by ActivTrades
Gold and Elliott Wave Theory.Wave 2(Green) was a Zigzag and we should expect a Flat correction for a Wave 4. An A Wave forms shortly after Wave 3 was formed and a Wave B should follow. B's have 3 waves-- two impulses and one corrective-- and in this case Wave A was a simple Wave that was corrected by a Flat for B(Black). Our last impulse is a 5 Wave move and is marked in Black. We are currently on Wave 4 which will be a Flat because 2 was a zigzag. We are currently on the last phases of the B wave(Blue) that comes before a C(Blue) also a 4(Black) in this case. A retest at the 261.8% would spark a Wave 4.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by machariavictor017
GBP/JPY showing the Bulls some love !!As i write this down GBP/JPY teases us with a triangle on a 1h timeframe with a break and test... and maybe a confirmation? 195.00 level is also there - giving us extra confirmation the YEN showed some strength since the year began maybe because of the ongoing Japanese fiscal year ending up in march, but since we are talking about fiscal years, UK's fiscal year concludes in April ! ( during fiscal year end companies tend to repatriate their offshore capital for several reasons: Tax Optimization, Financial Reporting, Dividend Payments, Debt Servicing, Currency Exchange Considerations, Strategic Investments) - this ensure a increased demand for the specific currency making it raise in value ( supply and demand 101) so where are we at right now: - Fundamentals favor the GBP in the near term future ( other fundamentals must be taken into consideration - do some research tell me what you find) - Technically we see an opportunity to profit for the coming fundamentals even tough is a good chance this setup is not the start line of the race upwards when it comes to Taking profits the only level that comes into mind is 198.200 (not a guarantee but a possibility) - Other Technical's the currency sits above the YTD Anchored VWAP and the march Anchored VWAP for some time now, in terms of Market Structure we see higher highs on the 4h/Daily and previous highs taken out ( feb high and Jan high) - this an uptrend no doubt For day traders: on the lower timeframes we see some head & Shoulders formations gearing up 1min_ chart completed H&S 5m_chart H&S in construction - and if I'm stretching my luck a bit maybe another H&S on the 15 min that's all there is to it! Whatever your trading remember to take the risks into consideration and always do your own analysis before taking a decision !! I'm still new to sharing ideas on the community - don't start throwing rocks now if your Bearish :D -Not financial Advice !
Long
by Chrispy3000
FedEx: Balancing Act or Precarious Gamble?Recent market activity highlights significant pressure on FedEx, as the logistics giant grapples with prevailing economic uncertainty. A notable drop in its stock price followed the company's decision to lower its revenue and profit outlook for fiscal year 2025. Management attributes this revision to weakening shipping demand, particularly in the crucial business-to-business sector, stemming from softness in the US industrial economy and persistent inflationary pressures. This development reflects broader economic concerns that are also impacting consumer spending and prompting caution across the corporate landscape. In response to these domestic headwinds, FedEx has adopted a more conservative operational stance, evidenced by a reduced planned capital spending for the upcoming fiscal year. This move signals an emphasis on cost management and efficiency as the company navigates the current economic climate within its established markets. It suggests a strategic adjustment to align spending with the revised, more cautious revenue expectations. However, this domestic caution contrasts sharply with FedEx's concurrent and ambitious expansion strategy in China. Despite geopolitical complexities, the company is making substantial investments to enlarge its footprint, building new operational centers, upgrading existing gateways, and increasing flight frequencies to enhance connectivity. This dual approach underscores the central challenge facing FedEx: balancing immediate economic pressures and operational adjustments at home while pursuing a long-term, high-stakes growth initiative in a critical international market, all within an uncertain global environment.
NYSE:FDXShort
by UDIS_View
Altcoin Recovery Depends on This USDT Dominance BreakAltcoins have taken a heavy hit — many are down 60–80% from their highs. As seen in the USDT Dominance chart, we're still respecting the rising trendline. Until this trend breaks to the downside, pressure on altcoins may continue. Key Zone to Watch: Once USDT.D breaks below that rising support line and sustains a move lower, we could witness a strong recovery phase across the altcoin market. That shift will likely signal renewed confidence and capital rotation into risk-on assets. Stay patient: The breakout is brewing. When that trendline cracks, altseason could ignite fast. Keep your watchlists ready. The reversal will reward the prepared. 🚀 Like and drop a comment if you found our analysis helpful — your support keeps us going!
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by unichartz
QQQ is Breaking the Trendline – Could the Tech Rally be started?Market Structure & Price Action: QQQ has broken out of a descending channel and printed a CHoCH to the upside around $471, shifting structure into a bullish stance. The breakout follows a clean reversal from the red demand zone near $463, suggesting institutional interest around that area. Price is now consolidating near $473.5–$474 after a strong 3-bar rally and retest of prior highs. Supply & Demand Zones: * Demand Zone (Support): $463–$465 * Supply Zone (Resistance): $495–$497 (unmitigated upper green zone) Support & Resistance Levels: * Immediate Resistance: $474 (minor psychological level, aligning with trendline retest zone) * Major Resistance: $495–$497 (overhead supply) * Support Levels: $470 > $465 > $463 Indicators: * MACD: Still bullish, but showing some slowing momentum – histogram flattening. * Stoch RSI: In overbought territory – may suggest short-term consolidation or pullback. * Volume: Rising on the breakout, confirming strength. Options GEX + Sentiment Analysis: * Gamma Walls: * CALL Wall (Resistant): $472 (64.62%) – Price is currently sitting above this wall. * Next Gamma Cluster: $474–$476 (GEX9/GEX10) – Potential short-term magnet. * PUT Wall Support: * $465–$463 zone aligning with strong GEX put support and HVL (0DTE) – strong defense. * IV Rank (IVR): 40.6 * Implied Volatility vs Average (IVx avg): IV is above avg at 3.27% * Sentiment: PUTS 52.6% | GEX shows 🟢🟢🟢🟡 (Bullish leaning but hedged) Trade Scenarios: * Bullish Scenario: * If QQQ holds above $472 and sustains above the GEX CALL Wall, we may see a move toward $476–$480. * A breakout above $480 could open the door for a test of the $495–$497 upper supply zone. * Bearish Scenario: * Rejection at $474 and failure to hold $470 could push price back toward the $465–$463 demand zone. * Breakdown below $463 would invalidate the bullish thesis in the short term. Conclusion: QQQ is showing strength after breaking the descending structure, and options positioning supports a slow grind higher unless it gets rejected at $474. Watch for consolidation or a clean breakout to confirm momentum continuation. Bulls want to defend $470 on any pullback.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights
WMT Approaching Key Resistance! Will It Break Above $90?🧠 Price Action & Market Structure: WMT has made a powerful push off the $84 demand zone after forming a CHoCH reversal and strong impulsive candles. The 1-hour chart shows a clean breakout from the falling wedge structure, confirming bullish intent. Price is consolidating inside a smaller green SMC supply zone just under $89. Watch closely for either a clean break above $89.11 or rejection from this level. 🔍 Key Support and Resistance: * Immediate Resistance: $89.11 (local high) * Next Resistance: $90.00 psychological + Gamma wall * Support 1: $87.00 * Major Demand Zone: $84.00–$85.00 📈 Indicator Insights: * MACD is neutral after prior bullish momentum. * Stoch RSI shows slight cooling, nearing midrange after previously being overbought. * EMAs are stacked bullishly with 9 EMA above 21 EMA – trend remains intact. 📊 GEX (Options Sentiment) Breakdown: * Highest Positive GEX: $90.00 — CALL Resistance / Gamma Wall * Highest Negative GEX: $91.00 — PUT Wall * Options Flow Sentiment: * IVR: 58 * IVx avg: 29.5 * GEX: 🟢🟢🟢 (very bullish) * Put/Call $ Flow: Only 0.2% in PUTs — very bullish 📌 Trade Scenarios: Bullish Breakout: * Entry above $89.20 * Target: $90.50 → $93 * Stop Loss: Below $88.25 Rejection Play (Fade Gamma Wall): * Short from $89.00–$90.00 if candles weaken * Target: $87 * Stop Loss: Above $90.50 🔮 Outlook:
WMT is showing strength and positive sentiment in the options chain. As long as $87 holds, the bias remains bullish. Break and close above $90 could lead to gamma squeezing toward $92–$93. ⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
NYSE:WMT
by BullBearInsights
GOLD XAUUSD – SNIPER PLAN 2 APRIL 2025👇 🦁 GOLD XAUUSD – SNIPER PLAN 2 APRIL 2025 📆 📍 Macro & Political Context 🗞️ Geopolitical Tension: Ongoing war in Ukraine + fresh tariff threats from Trump are sparking investor fear. Safe-haven flows into gold continue. 💰 Fundamentals: Inflationary fears remain strong. Market eyes the US NFP later this week. Fed is silent... too silent. 👀 🌍 Central banks are still buying gold – clear sign of institutional appetite. 🔍 Market Structure Overview Trend: Bullish HTF ✅ Current Price: $3,113 All-Time High: $3,148 (Reached recently – likely liquidity swept!) Last Valid BOS: H1 and H4 both show bullish structure, but a correction is brewing. 🍃 📊 Key Technical Zones & Confluences 🔻 Sell-Side Liquidity Below 📌 $3,100 – Clear liquidity pool (equal lows + psychological level) 🔥 Below $3,100 to $3,085 – Strong imbalance zone + unmitigated FVG 🧲 Expectation: Price may grab liquidity here before next leg up 🔷 Imbalance + Discount Zone 📉 $3,085–$3,095 – Massive H1/H4 imbalance. Could be a POI if price breaks $3,100 🧱 Valid Demand OB (H1) inside this zone + FIBO 61.8% retracement from last impulse 🔺 Premium Rejection 🧱 H1/H4 OB near $3,135–$3,145 = Price sharply rejected = probable redistribution zone ✂️ This was also the weekly high, which got swept = liquidity taken 🎯 Plan of Action 🟢 Scenario 1: Long Entry from Discount Zone "Let them take the liquidity, we take the reversal!" 💸 Entry Zone: $3,085 – $3,095 Confluence: Valid H1 OB (confirmed with PA) Imbalance zone FIBO 61.8% + structure break Sell-side liquidity sweep from $3,100 Confirmation: M15 CHoCH + Bullish engulfing or low volume sweep SL: Below $3,078 TP1: $3,130 TP2: $3,145 TP3: $3,150 (liquidity magnet again) 🔴 Scenario 2: Short if Price Pushes Back to $3,140+ Catch the premium short 🧨 Entry Zone: $3,140 – $3,148 Confluence: All-time high sweep (liquidity trap) HTF OB rejection Weakness shown on M15 Confirmation: M5-M15 CHoCH + engulfing SL: Above $3,155 TP1: $3,125 TP2: $3,100 TP3: $3,085 🧠 Final Notes 📌 Be reactive, not predictive – wait for PA confirmation at POIs 📰 Watch news – especially unexpected geopolitical catalysts or Fed surprise 🧘‍♂️ Stick to risk management. At ATHs, volatility is high and manipulation common. 👉 If this breakdown helped you, don’t forget to FOLLOW for more sniper setups and smash that ❤️ LIKE button to show some love! Your support keeps this 🔥 content coming!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
3
Primer: Solana - A Blazing BlockchainCME Group’s newly launched Solana futures enable institutional grade access to the cryptocurrency, offering investors access to compelling relative value opportunities. This paper provides a background to Solana in relation to other major blockchain networks and cryptocurrencies. Mint Finance will outline the execution of crypto market spread trades using CME futures in an upcoming paper. Solana is a high-performance public blockchain launched in 2020 by Solana Labs, founded by Anatoly Yakovenko (a former Qualcomm engineer). Yakovenko first proposed Solana’s novel Proof of History (PoH) concept in 2017 as a solution to blockchain scalability. He assembled a founding team including former Qualcomm colleague Greg Fitzgerald and others and named the project after a California beach town. Backed by early venture funding, Solana’s mainnet launched in March 2020. The vision was to enable ultra-fast, low-cost transactions for decentralized applications (e.g. DeFi, gaming), addressing limitations of Bitcoin & Ethereum in speed and fees. Solana has grown rapidly to become one of the most used networks and amassed a market cap of USD 64 billion, making it one of the largest digital assets. What is behind the massive surge? Is it due to flip ETH as the home of DeFi? How Does Solana’s Blockchain Rank? While Solana’s low fees and fast transaction speeds have driven high trading volume, transaction count, and wallet growth, it still trails ETH in Total Value Locked (TVL). To achieve its high transaction throughput, Solana has made certain compromises on decentralization. In terms of ecosystem development, Solana is seeing rapid growth. The Electric Capital 2024 developer report found Solana attracted the most new developers in 2024 – more than any other ecosystem (even Ethereum’s, despite Ethereum’s broader base). Solana now has ~2,500 monthly active developers, second only to Ethereum’s ~8,900 (which includes many working on Layer-2s). This loyal & expanding developer base has been a key factor behind Solana’s explosive growth. DEX Surge and Meme Coin Mania Solana’s early growth was driven by NFTs, supported by low fees and a loyal community that made it a hub for NFT trading. These factors continued to attract users even after the NFT boom subsided. Its fast, low-cost blockchain and strong developer base have enabled the launch of many user-friendly and popular applications. More recently, Solana’s growth has been fuelled by surging decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes and a wave of meme coin minting. By November 2024, meme coin trading accounted for an all-time high 65% of monthly DEX volume on Solana’s largest DEX, Raydium. Raydium even overtook Uniswap in monthly volume that month. Solana’s advantages in cost and speed have been pivotal in this trend. Transaction fees on Solana are negligible and on-par with L2 chains. This cost advantage makes minting and trading low-value tokens (like meme coins) economically feasible on Solana but prohibitively expensive on Ethereum layer-1. Similarly, Solana’s block times (~0.4 seconds) and high throughput enable rapid trading. Traders can execute many rapid swaps on Solana DEXs without the delays and slippage that Ethereum’s ~12-second blocks and occasional congestion introduce. Solana’s speed and low fees thus attracted a flood of retail speculators for meme coins and high-frequency trading strategies. Ethereum’s ecosystem still offers deeper liquidity and broader dApp selection, but Solana capitalized on specific niches (e.g. meme coins, real-time trading) where Ethereum’s costs are a barrier. However, this explosive growth was not without turbulence. In early 2025, a “meme coin meltdown” saw activity cooling off after several scam tokens collapsed. By February 2025, Solana’s share of total on-chain DEX volume, which had topped 51% in January, retreated to 24% as some froth cleared. Data Source: Artemis Scandals like a fake “Libra” token (which vaporized $4.4B in market cap) and a Trump-themed token rug pull dented retail sentiment. Even so, Solana’s DEX volumes remain on par with Ethereum’s entire ecosystem (L1 + L2), a remarkable feat. VanEck’s Feb 2025 report noted that despite an 80%+ drop in new meme token launches since January, Solana DEX activity “is still holding its own – roughly matching the entire ETH ecosystem”. In short, the meme coin mania has demonstrated Solana’s capacity to manage massive retail-driven bursts of activities that might overwhelm other chains. Market Metrics For BTC, ETH, and SOL Since the bottom of the bear market following the FTX collapse. Solana has delivered a stunning recovery, far outperforming both BTC and ETH, but the massive gains were partly explained by the much sharper decline following FTX. During 2024, SOL performance moved in lockstep with BTC with both assets delivering stunning returns. However, the performance diverged sharply after Jan/2025, coinciding with the collapse in DEX trading volume. The sharp correction since has erased most of the 2024 gains while BTC has remained resilient. Solana has, nevertheless, managed to outperform ETH which has suffered an even deeper correction over the past few months. Data Source: TradingView Historical volatility for all three assets shows a similar trend but differ in magnitude. SOL has the highest volatility while ETH follows second and BTC is least volatile. During spikes, the differences become exaggerated, but during lows, the values can reach similar lows. For traders, higher volatility can be both an opportunity and a risk. While SOL’s performance is positively correlated with both ETH and BTC, this correlation breaks frequently (more commonly with ETH) and these periods of divergence present compelling spread opportunities. The trend for implied volatility (IV) is like HV with SOL’s IV the highest and Bitcoin’s IV the lowest. Recently, IV has started to edge up again following a decline through March. Trading Solana and Crypto Spreads With the launch of CME’s Solana and Micro Solana futures, investors can express views on Solana’s growth and take tactical positions that benefit from relative outperformance. Mint Finance will outline the execution of crypto market spread trades using CME futures in an upcoming paper. CME Solana futures provide exposure to 500 SOL per futures contract and reference the CME CF Solana-Dollar Reference Rate. CME Micro Solana futures offer a smaller notional value to create more balanced spreads and for fine-tuning exposure. The micro contract provides exposure to 25 SOL. Additional details about the contract including margins, calendars, and specifications are available on the CME Solana product page . MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME:SOL1!Education
by mintdotfinance
SPY at a Pivotal Zone – Bounce or Breakdown? 🧠 Market Structure + Price Action (1H) * Trend: Downtrend confirmed. Recent Break of Structure (BOS) followed a Change of Character (CHoCH) from bulls to bears. * Bearish momentum intensified after SPY broke support near 570.90, then plummeted through 564.85 and 558.11 key demand levels. * Current price: 554.15 — bouncing slightly within a local demand/reaction box, but still under selling pressure. * Price is now consolidating below structure, but inside a potential reaction zone (possible dead cat bounce or minor retracement). 🔍 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) * CHoCH & BOS align with institutional exit behavior. The BOS confirms bearish intent. * SPY has entered a minor demand zone, but hasn’t reclaimed any bullish market structure yet. * If it breaks below 549.68, the next support zone opens toward the 540s. 🔁 Indicators MACD: * MACD is starting to curve up, with histogram showing decreasing red momentum – a potential bounce brewing. Stoch RSI: * Oversold condition with both lines crossing upward — supports a short-term relief rally or retracement. 🔥 GEX & Options Sentiment Analysis * IVR: 37.8 (Moderate); IVx Avg: 22.6 * Put Positioning: Very high at 71% — bears are loaded up. * GEX Sentiment: * GEX is red 🔴🔴🔴 — strong gamma exposure to puts, favoring downward pressure. * Highest negative NETGEX / PUT Support at 555.83, which is just above current price — this acts as a magnet and pivot. * If SPY stays below this level, dealer hedging accelerates selling. * Major Put Walls at: * 545: GEX8 at -22% * 544-540: Very deep bearish gamma — potential acceleration if we break lower. * Call Resistance (Gamma Wall): * 573 → 577 → 580 zone = Gamma ceiling. * Dealers short calls here and hedge by selling, which adds resistance on rallies. ⚖️ Trade Scenarios 🐂 Bullish Reversal Setup: * Trigger: Break & close above 555.83 with volume. * Target: 558.11 → 564.85 * Invalidation: Below 549.68 * Risk/Reward: Favorable if volume confirms. 🐻 Bearish Continuation Setup: * Trigger: Break below 549.68 with follow-through. * Target: 545 → 540 zone (GEX & PUT walls) * Stop-Loss: Above 555.83 or structure retest * Confluence: GEX alignment + broken structure + dealer flow pressure. 🧭 Directional Bias: Bearish bias still intact — but signs of short-term bounce forming. Likely we see a dead cat bounce unless 555.83 is reclaimed with conviction. 🎯 Actionable Strategy: * Intraday scalp: Long toward 558 if price reclaims 555.83. * Swing short: Below 549.68 toward 540 using SPY or PUT options. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Gold extended higher, look for signs of exhaustionGold is extending higher, tapping into untested liquidity above. However, signs of exhaustion are creeping in. Watch for potential liquidity sweeps before reversals. Key Untapped Liquidity Zones Upside: $3,182 - $3,189 Downside: $3,103 - $3,094 🔴 Sell Setups (Short) 1️⃣ Intraday Reversal Short Entry Zone: $3,182 - $3,189 Stop Loss (SL): Above $3,193 Take Profit (TP) Levels: TP1: $3,150 (First reaction) TP2: $3,128 (Key liquidity) TP3: $3,103 (Imbalance fill) 📌 Reasoning: Untested supply at $3,182-$3,189 Price may sweep liquidity above $3,180 before a sharp rejection 2️⃣ Aggressive Short (Scalp) Entry Zone: $3,150 - $3,153 Stop Loss (SL): Above $3,157 Take Profit (TP) Levels: TP1: $3,128 TP2: $3,117 TP3: $3,103 📌 Reasoning: Liquidity grab before a possible retrace Strong momentum-based rejection expected 🟢 Buy Setups (Long) 3️⃣ Safe Long (Key Demand Zone) Entry Zone: $3,103 - $3,094 Stop Loss (SL): Below $3,089 Take Profit (TP) Levels: TP1: $3,128 TP2: $3,150 TP3: $3,182 📌 Reasoning: Untested demand at $3,103-$3,094 Imbalance below $3,103 should act as a magnet Liquidity sitting at $3,094 4️⃣ Deep Liquidity Sweep Buy Entry Zone: $3,074 - $3,067 Stop Loss (SL): Below $3,060 Take Profit (TP) Levels: TP1: $3,103 TP2: $3,128 TP3: $3,150 📌 Reasoning: Liquidity sweep target at $3,074-$3,067 If price taps this zone, a high-probability reversal could follow Heavy imbalance would need correction 👀 Keep an Eye On: 1️⃣ DXY movements—if the dollar strengthens, gold may struggle to break higher. 2️⃣ News events—major economic data could trigger liquidity grabs before reversals. 3️⃣ Reactions at key levels—watch for wicks, aggressive rejections, and volume spikes. 📌 Important Notice!!! The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your own plan and wait for confirmation before taking action. Good luck on the market today.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by GoldMindsFX