Bullish Outlook going forward for NQNQ has pulled back and taken Feb. Monthly low as well as grabbing some additional liquidity from Nov. last year. I shorted NQ on Thursday for 473 points to my anticipated level of support. I nearly caught the bottom of the market, followed by an aggressive back move up to equilibrium to end the week. Going forward, with the high impact news coming up in the first 2 weeks of March, I see a bullish outlook and the potential for new ATH. Here is an idea of what I see playing out over the short-term.
Beyond Technical Analysis
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S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 7th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks), 2nd phase. The February 24 pivot forecast attempted to slow down the bearish momentum from the triple top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, but its energy lasted only through Tuesday and Wednesday. The market reversed on Friday from the strong 5850 level, formed in November last year at the October 14 and November 18 extreme forecasts. Based on cycle timing and the chart, the situation resembles the completion of the 1st phase of a bearish base cycle.
👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the now triple-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. Those who didn’t hold, I hope you opened a short position from the third top on February 20. The next extreme forecast is March 3.
⚠️ The retrograde Venus period begins, which I wrote about in early December. The start of retrograde Venus typically brings a market correction, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility from March 17. A great period for short-term trading. Retrograde Venus usually has a one-week lag, which would place it around March 10.
⚠️ This base cycle is likely to be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I predicted this in early January. NASDAQ has already broken below the base cycle opening level. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts. These long cycles will complete in the current base cycle. However, I do not expect a correction to exceed 20-25%, as a major crash is unlikely before summer this year or spring next year.
RUNE BUY as an option to win bigThe Rune and the Thorchain have good economics behind the project.
The Validators get nice compensation for their work.
All the team needs to do is:
1. Make sure that the network is safe
2. Borrow long-term money to cover the financial hole
3. Enjoy the business
Now, the price is at the lowest level since the introduction of the Rune. It is a good opportunity to take a position and enjoy the flight.
The Rune is going to be $4 pretty soon if the above 3 conditions are met
Henry Hub Rally Poised To Extend as Tailwinds Hold StrongHenry Hub Liquified Natural Gas (“LNG”) prices are roaring back, surging in February as frigid temperatures, falling inventories, and soaring LNG exports fuel a bullish rally.
With US storage dipping below the five-year average for the first time since 2022 and technical indicators flashing strength, does the rally have more room to run?
LNG RALLIES AS COLD WEATHER FUELS DEMAND AND TIGHTENS SUPPLY
CME Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (“CME LNG Futures”) have surged 26% in February, rebounding from a 16.2% decline in January. The rally has been driven by rising exports, falling storage levels, supply disruptions, and colder-than-expected weather.
January’s decline was surprising, given that U.S. temperatures averaged 29.2°F in January (0.9°F below average, around -1.56°C), the coldest January since 2005. This resulted in the average daily gas consumption reaching 124.4 Bcf, which is 12% higher than the five-year average, according to the EIA .
Prices initially climbed 10.2% from 03/Jan to 24/Jan in response to strong demand, but a late-month selloff erased gains as forecasts turned milder.
February saw a swift rebound as colder-than-expected temperatures pushed heating demand beyond expectations, fuelling a price rally.
European gas markets added further support, with Dutch TTF prices hitting a two-year high on 11/Feb amid freezing weather, Norwegian supply disruptions, and rapid storage depletion.
However, European prices have eased recently due to Russia- Ukraine peace talks, milder forecasts, and discussions on EU storage policies.
LNG EXPORTS RISE AMID GROWING GLOBAL DEMAND
US LNG exports surged in January, driven by cold temperatures, depleting reserves, and Europe’s shift away from Russian gas. The US exported 8.46 million metric tonnes (412 Bcf) of LNG in January 2025, with 86% heading to Europe—a sharp increase from 69% in December reports Reuters . However, exports remain below the record 422.9 Bcf set in December 2023.
Source: EIA
Meanwhile, the latest EIA data (updated till December 2024) shows that US LNG exports rose 0.6% YoY in 2024.
Export volumes are poised to rise further, supported by Trump’s energy policies easing LNG infrastructure development. Gas flows to export terminals have increased, averaging 14.6 Bcfd in January, and expected to reach 15.6 Bcfd in February. Gas flows are well above the levels seen in Q4 2024, October (13.1 Bcfd), November (13.3 Bcfd), and December (13 Bcfd).
A key advantage for US LNG is the absence of destination clauses, allowing buyers to redirect shipments based on demand. Even if Europe does not fully wean off Russian gas, growing U.S. export capacity ensures flexibility to serve other markets, particularly Asia.
INVENTORIES FALL BELOW 5-YEAR AVERAGE; EIA RAISES HENRY HUB PRICE FORECAST
Amid colder-than-expected weather and rising LNG exports, LNG storage levels have fallen more than anticipated, dropping below the five-year average (2020–2024) for the first time since 2022.
Source: EIA Data
Storage fell below the five-year average in the week ending 24/Jan and remained below since. As of the week ending 21/Feb, inventories were 11.5% lower than the five-year average. Weekly storage declines have exceeded analyst expectations for four consecutive weeks, indicating stronger-than-expected demand.
Source: EIA
According to the EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), January withdrawals from underground storage totalled nearly 1,000 Bcf, 39% above the five-year average. The agency expects inventories to end the withdrawal season (Nov–Mar) 4% below average, citing higher consumption and flat production through Q1 2025.
Source: EIA STEO
In response to tightening supply, the EIA raised its Henry Hub price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 20.7% and 4.8%, respectively, compared to prior estimates.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS SIGNAL SUSTAINED BULLISH MOMENTUM
With bullish fundamentals supporting Henry Hub prices, technical indicators also signal an uptrend.
Monitoring the 9-day EMA/21-day EMA cross helps identify trend shifts for day trading. A golden cross, a bullish signal (9-day EMA above 21-day EMA), indicates upward momentum, while a death cross, a bearish signal (9-day EMA below 21-day EMA), suggests weakening price action.
The 9-day EMA crossed above the 21-day EMA on 18/Feb, forming a golden cross. The widening gap suggests growing bullish momentum.
However, the MACD has turned negative after a strong bullish trend. Meanwhile, the RSI hovers at 50.39, down from its monthly peak of 66.60 & below its moving average of 56.66.
Source: TradingView
TradingView’s technical analysis dashboard also indicates a bullish trend.
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS
For the week ending 18/Feb, managed money’s net long positions in Henry Hub natural gas (futures & options) increased by 40% WoW, marking a second straight weekly gain. Long positions grew by 14.4% to 241,541 lots, while short positions inched up 0.2% to 137,674 lots.
Source: QuikStrike
Long positions have risen steadily since 11/Feb, while short positions remain unchanged, implying a growing bullish sentiment in the market.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Multiple factors continue to support Henry Hub prices, including cold temperatures, rising LNG exports, expanding US LNG capacity, and falling inventories.
Adding to the bullish outlook, near-term production declines are expected to tighten supply through the remainder of winter. With these fundamentals in play and strong technical signals, natural gas prices may have further upside potential.
Portfolio managers and traders can capitalize on a bullish LNG outlook by tapping into CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures. These contracts offer the same exposure as standard Henry Hub futures but at 1/10th the size, providing enhanced accessibility and more precise risk management opportunities.
This paper posits a long position in CME Micro Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (Apr 2025) expiring on 26/Mar (MNGJ2025) with the following trade setup:
• Entry: 3.75/MMBtu
• Target: 4.25/barrel
• Stop: 3.45/barrel
• P&L at Target (per lot): +500 ((4.25 – 3.75) x 1,000)
• P&L at Stop (per lot): -300 ((3.45 – 3.75) x 1,000)
• Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.67x
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Investors can learn more about how to access these micro products by visiting the CME Micro Products page on the CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Tariff Carnival with the U.S.: Chinese ReactionIon Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
The recent decision by the United States to increase tariffs on Chinese products has reignited tensions in the trade relationship between the two powers. With Washington's intention to raise additional tariffs on products from China by up to 20%, Beijing is considering levies on agricultural and food exports from the United States. If unilateral measures persist, a firm and forceful response from Asia is likely to be triggered. Possible countermeasures include both the imposition of new tariffs and the implementation of non-tariff barriers, focusing on strategic sectors for the U.S. economy, such as agriculture and food. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce had already expressed its opposition to Washington's plans, arguing that these tariffs violate the rules established by the World Trade Organization (WTO) and jeopardize the multilateral trading system. The escalation follows a series of previous measures, in which the US government had announced an additional 10% surcharge on Chinese products, on top of a previously established 10%, in response to criticism of China's insufficient action to combat the entry of fentanyl into the United States. Previously, Beijing had responded to criticism that China had not taken sufficient action to combat the entry of fentanyl into the United States. Previously, Beijing responded to the first tariff measures applied by the US administration with tariffs ranging from 10% to 15% on certain products, along with new controls on exports of strategic minerals and an investigation against the technology giant Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL). The current scenario, can be defined as a “Tariff Carnival” , as it is only worth highlighting the volatility and risk involved in this trade dispute initiated by Trump with all the countries with which it maintains trade relations, whose effects could extend beyond the borders of the two largest economies in the world.
Hang Seng Analysis
In today's trading day, the retracement was not long in coming, closing the week with a bearish session, and continuing today's Asian trading day with a bearish closing. Although the trend is clearly bullish on a daily time frame, it can be seen that there has been a new bounce off the highs. In other words, after breaking new highs at 24,071.50 points the stock has corrected to an area just below the previous highs, in the body area. If the price action loses strength it could generate a bearish crossover that corrects the price in the direction of the previous price support zone at 19573 points. If the stock continues to beat the market strongly we will see a new attempt to pierce the highs. It should be noted that the RSI has marked excessive overbought at the time of the correction at 81.79% and the POC is located in the area of the previous impulse of 17,200 points. Therefore, a small price correction is quite foreseeable if these tariffs have a sufficient impact on the index's corporate results.
In conclusion, the scenario is shaping up as a “Tariff Carnival” , where the escalation of protectionist measures and chain reactions could extend their effects beyond the two largest economies in the world, significantly impacting international trade and the stability of financial markets.
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COIN - Potential 15000 Point move comingHI all,
Overwhelmed with support recently which I really appreciate. Lets take a look at COIN
Coin is at a large area of intrest to me as this price has been used as both support and resistance many time. We area currently respecting a long term Bullish trend line
We are slowly approaching a Strong Demand zone now from where price made a massive Bull run. Im looking to make a similar movement off this support level although price may push off this point of intrest without testing the Demand.
If we take the previous high price then I will look to buy from a market order position targeting Buy side Liquidity
Good luck to all the traders that decide to follow
PLTR at a Key Turning Point – Reversal or Breakdown? Technical Analysis (TA) – Key Price Action Insights
* Trend: PLTR has been in a clear downtrend, trading within a descending channel. A breakout above this structure could signal a reversal.
* Reversal Zone: The stock is testing a critical resistance zone around $85-$90, which aligns with the Volume Profile Point of Control (POC).
* Support Levels:
* $80: Key short-term support; failure to hold could send price towards $75-$72.
* $72: Strong historical support—a breakdown here could accelerate selling pressure.
* Resistance Levels:
* $90: First major upside level where a rejection is likely.
* $100-$105: Strong supply zone and potential breakout confirmation area.
Indicators:
* MACD: Recently crossed bullish, indicating possible momentum shift.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought, suggesting a possible pullback before continuation.
GEX (Gamma Exposure) & Options Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* $90 (72.6% Wall): Heavy call positioning here could act as a major resistance.
* $100-$105: Next key call walls—if PLTR can clear these, a strong gamma squeeze could take it towards $120.
* Put Support:
* $80: Highest negative NetGEX level, which aligns with dealer positioning to support price.
* $75-$72: Strong put walls—if these break, expect dealers to hedge by selling stock, increasing downside pressure.
* IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 71.4 – High implied volatility means options are expensive.
* Options Positioning: Calls 26.4% → Mixed sentiment, slightly bullish bias.
Trading Plan & Strategy
🔹 Bullish Scenario: If PLTR holds above $85 and breaks $90, it could trigger a gamma squeeze toward $100-$105. A daily close above $105 could lead to $120+ in the mid-term.
🔻 Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold $80 could trigger dealer hedging, leading to a breakdown toward $75-$72.
Final Thoughts & Suggestions
* Options Traders: Consider selling puts at $80 or a bull call spread if bullish. For bearish setups, a bear put spread targeting $75 makes sense.
* Equity Traders: Look for confirmation at $90 for a bullish entry or wait for a retest at $80-$75 for better risk-reward.
⚠️ This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly. 🚀📉
Monthly, Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher, finding support at the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart. Due to the sharp decline last week, the 20,500 to 20,300 range was a technical rebound zone.
On the monthly chart, February closed with a bearish candle, bringing the index below the 5-day moving average and forming a range with the 10-day MA. For March, the 3-day and 5-day moving averages will act as resistance, while the 10-day MA serves as support. Since the monthly MACD is still above the signal line, even if corrections occur this month, rebound potential remains, meaning traders should be cautious about chasing shorts aggressively.
On the weekly chart, the Nasdaq fell below the 20-week MA, accelerating the sell-off. The MACD continues to slope downward, keeping further downside potential open, but since the signal line is still above zero, the index may consolidate between the 3-week and 5-week moving averages, making a range-bound strategy effective this week.
On the daily chart, both MACD and the signal line have dropped below zero, confirming a bearish market structure. The 21,000 level was broken decisively with a large bearish candle, meaning that if price struggles to reclaim this level, further downside toward the 240-day moving average is possible. If the Nasdaq falls to the 240-day MA, traders should prepare for a potential technical bounce, as historically, this level has provided support. Reviewing moving average dynamics could be helpful for understanding this scenario.
On the 240-minute chart, Friday’s low produced a strong rebound, making the MACD's potential golden cross a key signal to watch. As long as the recent lows hold, buying opportunities may exist, but since the signal line remains far above zero, selling pressure may persist on any rallies. Traders should avoid chasing long positions and focus on range trading. This week, traders should keep an eye on China’s National People's Congress (NPC) on Tuesday and the U.S. Employment Report on Friday, as both events could increase market volatility later in the week.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower within a narrow range, continuing its sideways movement. On the monthly chart, February closed with a bearish candle, causing the MACD to turn downward while still maintaining a range-bound structure. Although the MACD and signal line remain above zero, buyers are still attempting to hold support within this range. For now, oil should be traded as a large range-bound market.
On the weekly chart, last week’s doji candle suggests indecision, and this week, the MACD has crossed below the signal line, triggering a sell signal. However, since a weekly close is needed to confirm this, the possibility of a trend reversal remains open. If oil continues lower this week, the sell signal will be fully confirmed, but if price rebounds, last week’s doji candle could mark a reversal point. Key bullish catalysts include Trump’s potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the possibility of stricter oil sanctions on Venezuela. Meanwhile, bearish factors include economic slowdown fears reducing oil demand.
On the daily chart, breaking above $70 remains the key bullish trigger, but since the MACD has yet to form a golden cross, confirming an end to the downtrend is premature. On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has formed a golden cross, indicating a potential recovery after a pullback. For now, traders should buy dips cautiously, but breaking above $70 remains the key factor for further upside confirmation.
Gold
Gold closed sharply lower, forming a large bearish candle. On the daily chart, gold has fallen from previous highs to the lower Bollinger Band, meaning that additional downside (overshooting below support) remains possible.
On the monthly chart, gold formed a doji candle, indicating uncertainty. If gold found support at the 3-day MA last month, this month, traders should watch for support at the 5-day MA, as it could provide a buying opportunity on pullbacks.
On the weekly chart, gold has fallen to the 5-week MA, meaning that it has entered a range-bound structure. Since the lower support levels are still open, traders should avoid chasing long positions at highs and focus on buying lower. The U.S. Employment Report is due on Friday, which could increase volatility for gold.
On the daily chart, while the MACD is declining, the signal line remains well above zero, meaning that even if prices fall, rebound attempts are likely. On the 240-minute chart, further downside toward the 240-day moving average remains possible, but traders should watch for bottoming signals and potential support. If the MACD forms a golden cross, a strong rebound could follow, so monitoring short-term momentum shifts will be key.
February marked a transition to a range-bound market after an extended uptrend, suggesting that March could be a period of consolidation or further downside extension. Geopolitical risks have increased since Trump took office, and market volatility is rising due to key global events. Traders should focus on risk management and avoid overexposure. Wishing you a successful start to March! 🚀
If you like detailed this analysis and today's strategy, please follow me and give it a boost!
TAOUSDT LONG 1H (2Target Done! Congratulation)An excellent situation from the trading plan.
The second goal has been achieved and the stop is at breakeven.
I would like to emphasize that the $320-322 block (break block) confirmed the retention level. You can move the stop order to this level and calmly wait for new variables from the market
UPdate:
1-st target:
BNB/BTC : BNB Ready to Outperform Bitcoin?"Analyzing the BNBBTC weekly timeframe and the current market structure, I anticipate that BNB will outperform Bitcoin by a factor of two. In other words, if Bitcoin rallies 50%, we could see BNB doubling in value. Do you think BNB is positioned to reach $1,000?"
Long SPY: Watch Key Levels for Recovery Next Week
- Key Insights: The SPY is showing signs of recovery after a substantial
decline, bouncing off critical support around $590. Maintaining above this
level is crucial for a bullish outlook. Traders should focus on the
resistance at $600, as surpassing this could ignite further upward momentum.
The external economic factors, including declining oil prices and
fluctuations in interest rates, are providing a supportive backdrop for
equities.
- Price Targets: Next week targets are set at T1=$620 and T2=$630. Stop levels
will be S1=$590 and S2=$583, providing a safety net for long positions while
aligning with current market conditions.
- Recent Performance: SPY recently faced a challenging period with six
consecutive days of decline, hitting lows around $585. However, in the last
sessions, it has rebounded over 1.5%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment
toward a more optimistic outlook.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts remain mixed on the pace of recovery, with some
expecting a V-shaped rebound toward $620 by March. The consensus is that
maintaining above vital support levels will be essential for sustaining
bullish sentiment, while any breach below $580 could trigger further market
pessimism.
- News Impact: The broader market dynamics are being significantly shaped by
external factors such as interest rates, which have recently declined from
4.5% to 4.23%. Additionally, falling oil prices under $70 a barrel are seen
as beneficial for reducing inflationary pressures, further adding to the
favorable environment for equities like SPY.
Tokyo Session Playbook – Monday, March 4, 2025📅 Session Context:
✅ Friday’s Closing Impact – End-of-week profit-taking & Smart Money positioning
✅ Monday’s Open Setup – Liquidity resets & possible stop hunts
✅ End of Month → New Month Flows – Portfolio rebalancing impact
✅ Trump’s Tariff Policies & Global Risk Sentiment – Risk-on/risk-off flows into gold
✅ Upcoming Key Economic Data – Asian market sentiment will react to global factors
Considerations for Tokyo Session
🔹 Fundamental Impact – Economic News & Trump Tariffs
Trump’s Tariff Policies → More global uncertainty = Bullish for Gold
Chinese Market Reaction → Strong demand from China usually supports Gold
US Dollar Strength → If USD weakens, Gold will push higher
🔹 VSA & Market Maker Logic
If VSA shows Weak Buying → Expect early liquidity sweep & reversal.
If VSA shows Strong Buying → Institutions are preparing for London breakout.
Market Makers will likely trap retail traders before big moves.
Asia will set the liquidity traps for London & NYC expansion.
Tokyo will likely liquidate weak hands before a decisive move during London/NYC.
🔷 Key Technical Levels
✅ POC (Point of Control) → $2,857.44
✅ VAH (Value Area High) → $2,868.00
✅ VAL (Value Area Low) → $2,849.00
✅ VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) → $2,853.14
📌 Interpretation:
Above VWAP ($2,853) → Tokyo session will try to push price toward $2,868-$2,875 (liquidity grab zone).
Below VWAP ($2,853) → Expect a dip into $2,849-$2,832 to clear stop losses before a reversal.
🔷 How Tokyo Will Play the Game
Scenario 1: Bullish Play (Strong Gold Demand in Asia)
✅ Trigger: Smart Money absorbs liquidity at $2,849-$2,853 and price holds above VWAP.
✅ Institutional Confirmation:
Positive Delta & Increasing Bid Volume
Absorption at liquidity zones (VAL & VWAP)
✅ Execution Plan:
BUY: $2,849 - $2,853
STOP LOSS: Below $2,832
TARGETS:
TP1: $2,868 (VAH)
TP2: $2,875 (Liquidity Pool)
TP3: $2,885 (Breakout Target)
🎯 Why This Works?
Asia accumulates long positions before sending price higher in London.
Gold demand in Asia is strong due to risk-hedging.
Expect a slow grind up before liquidity spikes in London.
Scenario 2: Bearish Play (Liquidity Grab Before Reversal)
✅ Trigger: Price spikes to $2,868-$2,875 but rejects with weak buying pressure.
✅ Institutional Confirmation:
Negative Delta & Sell Imbalances Above VAH
Large Orders Absorbing Buys (Liquidity Trap)
✅ Execution Plan:
SELL: $2,868 - $2,875 (Fakeout Zone)
STOP LOSS: Above $2,885
TARGETS:
TP1: $2,853 (VWAP)
TP2: $2,849 (VAL)
TP3: $2,832 (Deep Reversal Zone)
🎯 Why This Works?
Institutions fake the bullish move, trap retail longs, then dump the price.
Gold has a history of early session stop-hunts before reversing.
High probability of selling pressure before London takes control.
Tokyo Session Execution Plan
🔥 Primary Play: BUY THE DIP (Bullish Accumulation Plan)
✅ ENTRY: $2,849 - $2,853 (If price holds above VWAP)
✅ STOP LOSS: Below $2,832
✅ TAKE PROFITS:
TP1: $2,868
TP2: $2,875
TP3: $2,885
🔥 Alternate Play: SHORT THE FAKEOUT (Bearish Rejection Plan)
✅ ENTRY: $2,868 - $2,875 (If price rejects with weak delta)
✅ STOP LOSS: Above $2,885
✅ TAKE PROFITS:
TP1: $2,853
TP2: $2,849
TP3: $2,832
$RIOT to Lead Bitcoin Miners Higher in March ($11+ Price Target)Riot Platforms NASDAQ:RIOT is a stock that I've held common shares of since 2017, and as of now, it's also the largest call options position in the WAVE$ Portfolio. 🔥🥇
I think that NASDAQ:RIOT will re-test that line of broken support as new resistance (orange) by the 21st of March. My money is where my mouth is. 💰🎯
The macro economic backdrop favors CRYPTOCAP:BTC far more than equities at the moment (in my view), and I think that miners like NASDAQ:RIOT and NASDAQ:MARA can act as diamonds in the rough even if the major indices ( AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ ) struggle. 👑💎⛏️
Let's keep this momentum alive team! 🌊🌊🏆
-Royce