Beyond Technical Analysis
Comparing Gold and Bitcoin: Which is the Superior Hard Money?As economic uncertainty, inflation, and geopolitical tensions continue to rise, investors are increasingly turning to alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin as hedges against potential market downturns. Both assets have seen significant price increases in recent years, sparking a heated debate over which one truly qualifies as the superior "hard money."
Gold: The Timeless Haven
Gold has been revered as a store of value for centuries. Its appeal lies in its physical nature, scarcity, and historical track record as a reliable hedge against inflation. When economic conditions deteriorate, investors often flock to gold as a haven.
• Pros of Gold:
o Tangible Asset: Gold is a physical asset, offers a sense of security and control.
o Historical Performance: Gold has consistently proven its worth as an inflation hedge over the long term.
o Diversification: Adding gold to a portfolio can reduce overall risk.
o Global Acceptance: Gold is recognized worldwide as a valuable commodity.
• Cons of Gold:
o Storage Costs: Storing physical gold can be expensive and inconvenient.
o Liquidity Concerns: While gold is generally liquid, large-scale sales may impact its price.
o Opportunity Cost: Gold doesn't generate income like stocks or bonds.
Bitcoin: The Digital Gold
Bitcoin, a decentralized digital currency, has emerged as a disruptive force in the financial world. Its proponents argue that it offers superior qualities as a hard money due to its limited supply, cryptographic security, and potential for future growth.
• Pros of Bitcoin:
o Digital Scarcity: Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million coins, ensuring its scarcity.
o Decentralization: Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network, making it resistant to censorship and manipulation.
o Global Accessibility: Bitcoin can be accessed and traded by anyone with an internet connection.
o Potential for High Returns: Bitcoin's price volatility offers opportunities for significant gains.
• Cons of Bitcoin:
o Price Volatility: Bitcoin's price can fluctuate dramatically, making it a risky investment.
o Regulatory Uncertainty: Governments around the world are still grappling with how to regulate cryptocurrencies.
o Technical Complexity: Understanding and using Bitcoin can be challenging for some.
o Environmental Concerns: Bitcoin mining consumes significant amounts of energy.
The Hard Money Debate: Gold vs. Bitcoin
The debate over which asset is superior as a hard money often boils down to individual preferences and risk tolerance.
Gold proponents emphasize its tangible nature, historical track record, and global acceptance. They argue that gold's value is rooted in its physical properties and its role as a traditional safe haven.
Bitcoin advocates highlight its digital scarcity, decentralization, and potential for disruption. They believe that Bitcoin's unique characteristics make it a more suitable store of value in the digital age.
Ultimately, the choice between gold and Bitcoin depends on various factors, including:
• Risk Tolerance: Investors with a higher risk tolerance may be more inclined to invest in Bitcoin, while those seeking a more conservative approach may prefer gold.
• Investment Horizon: Long-term investors may benefit from both assets, as they have the potential to appreciate over time.
• Diversification: Both gold and Bitcoin can serve as diversifiers in a portfolio, reducing overall risk.
A Balanced Approach
Rather than choosing one over the other, some investors opt for a balanced approach by allocating a portion of their portfolio to both gold and Bitcoin. This strategy can help mitigate the risks associated with either asset and potentially generate higher returns over the long term.
As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, the debate over gold and Bitcoin is likely to intensify. Investors must carefully consider their financial goals, risk tolerance, and long-term outlook before making investment decisions.
Trade Recaps: USDJPY-LONG, AUDUSD-SHORT, 30/10/2024UJ Bias Analysis: Price corrected deeper into the 1H range discount, entering a 1H OB and confluent 1-sded FVG. The deeper retracement protracted lower at London open, sweeping Tuesday's low as it mitigated the KI areas before entry confirmation was received.
Grade: High Quality Valid
AU Bias Analysis: Price distributed higher aggressively at London open. This distribution was misinterpreted as a protraction which was sweeping 1H TBL, where it was actually shifting structure to the upside. Price traded higher into a 4H OB, where entry confirmation was received and a short position was executed. This was an invalid trade as the shift of structure to the upside violated my trade parameters which require the entry to be in alignment with the 1H range.
Grade: Invalid
What I did well or could've done better:
- Executed aggressively on the setups during my forecasting session despite a shorter day at work. Focus was good.
- Managed the trades according to the plan.
- Misread the distribution AU as a protraction, when it actually shifted 1H structure long which did not align with my trade parameters
- Took a trade that violated my plan as the UJ loss closed out today, which meant I only had 1 trade I could execute on instead of 2.
- I did not identify what would've lead me to be risk off on a setup and was only focusing on execution characteristics.
- I had a strong bias towards Dollar strength today, which led to marrying my bias and resulted in an invalid trade.
POLKADOT COMPRESSION ABOUT TO EXPLODEHey traders!
It's been a while since my last post in here. Despite that, I've been trading and charting like I always did.
Anyways, this is why I think CRYPTOCAP:DOT is pumping on the next months:
- As the rest of #alts , Polkadot has been on a compression structure since the manipulation on August. In my opinion, we are talking about a accumulation that will lead the price to reach the local ATH (11.00 - 12.00 USD)
- Context is great. #Trump seems to be the winner of US elections next week.
Don't take me wrong, I'm not a fan of #DOT and I think its time passed by. However, I don't think its crazy to see the #token dancing around 20.00 - 30.00 USD on the upcoming months.
BTC and Zoinky Blue 'Zoinky Blue' looks good on the BTC BLX chart. White trendlines are taken from the monthly. Until we see that Pi Cycle top, we keep pushing. On the weekly we have just created a move up from trend levels zero lag. Now we just wait on dominance to decrease and an alt season. Then once pi cycle top is in we can flip bias. Zoinky showed us the way many moons ago.
Gold _ Spot / U.S. Dollar Distribution _ Prices _ For _ QuarterGold _ Spot / U.S. Dollar Distribution _ Prices _ For _ Quarter _ 4 (2024).
Read before you speak (or) think before you speak! 100% accuracy archived on previous publication! I will keep the next Distribution price simple as we are approaching the end of the calendar over ( Not made up Financial) 2024! (Think)
Next Distribution price = $2,853.584. ( From here we it will drop to the key level of $2,649.521
Key Support / Resistance Breakout - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Key Support & Resistance Breakout. Stock has give Breakout of Resistance level. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Swing Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think.
Volume Breakout - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Volume Breakout. Stock has give Breakout with Volume. Keep in watch list. Buy above the high. Suitable for Swing Trade. Stop loss & Target Shown on Chart. Exit With in 15 Days, whether Target / Stop loss Hit or Not.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think.
Note: Entry above High Only as shown on Chart as it is the confirmation of Trend Continuation
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
50 SMA Rising- Positional TradeDisclaimer: I am not a Sebi registered adviser.
This Idea is publish purely for educational purpose only before investing in any stocks please take advise from your financial adviser.
Its 50 SMA Rising Strategy. Suitable for Positional Trading Initial Stop loss lowest of last 2 candles and keep trailing with 50 days SMA if price close below 50 SMA then Exit or be in the trade some time trade can go for several months.
Be Discipline because discipline is the Key to Success in the STOCK Market.
Trade What you see not what you Think
Looks Like Someone's Prepping for a Rocket Launch in AUD!Alright, alright, it seems like someone has seriously geared up for a rocket launch in the Australian dollar, and it’s happening in the next few days.
Looks like we might get some news dropped right after everything goes down, or maybe I’m just out of the loop.
A super aggressive portfolio, a Call Spread, popped up yesterday, and it looks like they’re still pouring in options today.
Targets for the futures are set at 0.68-0.6825. It’s like a rocket ready to go...))
GOOGL Strong Move Post-Earnings. My AnalysisHey, guys. Not going to go into too much detail on the description here. Just wanted to get my thoughts out there on NASDAQ:GOOGL . Certainly seems to have a strong long term trend here. As always, in long term trends, there could be various counter trend moves so always be prepared in that regard. Hopefully this offers some more insight for you as you think about NASDAQ:GOOGL from an investment perspective, or even a trading perspective. Even if you are looking for short term trades in GOOGL, I find it helpful to know how your trade might fit in to the longer term trend (whether to the downside or upside).
Hope you enjoy the review, and best of luck out there!
Bitcoin: Fed Cut, Spot ETFs, Michael Saylor, Doubts & Questions I am always considering the other "side," the competing point of view. I always accept what others are saying, try to see things the way others see it.
Everyday, I try to see Bitcoin moving higher and I stay open to 100K. I've been open and waiting since March 2024 and with every day that passes I get more and more convinced that 100K is not happening, but instead we are seeing a massive consolidation phase.
But I never give...
— What am I not seeing?
— What are they seeing that I am missing?
— Why or how do I see lower highs on the chart, am I making them up?
— Are prices rising and somehow I am ignoring this?
— Did Bitcoin hit 84,000 on a wick on the 5th of August and somehow I saw it in reverse?
— Where am I wrong?
— What am I missing?
But with each passing day, I am more and more convinced that my friends here might be wrong. It is painful but I have to accept that I might be seeing it the way I think I see it... But I keep trying.
Ok... What are the signals that you look for a bullish breakout to happen?
High volume, a major low being hit, bullish divergence on the indicators, low prices after a major bearish cycle, etc. Are these present here? No.
Ok... Maybe you are justified in thinking that the chart is bearish.
Maybe you are not fooling yourself.
Maybe these people are wrong...
But how can they be wrong, if they are wrong it means I am right, and if I am right, it means that Bitcoin has been going down and not up since March 2024.
Let me ask you a question, what is the difference between October 2024 and October 2023?
In October 2024 Bitcoin is trading at $67,800 and the price was around $26,000 in October 2023.
Do you belief Bitcoin will hit $100,000 in October 2024?
Of course not. This is very unlikely.
Do you think Bitcoin will remain at the same level in October 2024?
Leave a comment.
What tends to happen before the elections?
If Bitcoin is ultra-bullish, why is it not already trading at $90K?
If we have Michael Saylor claiming to the moon, the Spot ETFs, Fed Cuts and the rest, why is Bitcoin not trading at 100K already?
Why Bitcoin has not grown in the last 7 months?
Because we are in the distribution phase, and the distribution phase ends in a major crash, prices go down not up. That's why. It is because after a bullish wave, the market produces a correction.
We are in the correction phase right now. Only after the correction is over we can see growth.
But Michael Saylor bought Bitcoin!
The company that he runs bought Bitcoin, it is likely that on the outside he is building a massive SHORT.
Namaste.
XAU ! 10/30 ! Bulls dominate - continue to make ATHXAU / USD trend forecast October 30, 2024
Gold opened the week slightly lower, down 0.15%, pressured by rising US Treasury yields as markets gear up for significant US economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Traders are also watching the November 5 US election closely, with FiveThirtyEight showing Trump's odds at 52%, versus 48% for Vice President Kamala Harris, though she maintains a narrow lead in most national polls.
Strong uptrend - helping gold reach highest ATH 2782. Uptrend maintained going forward - Higher ATH: 2787 - 2800
/// SELL XAU : zone 2800-2803
SL: 2808
TP: 50 - 200 - 300 pips (2773)
Safe and profitable trading
BANKNIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 31-10-2024
Intro:
On the previous trading day, Bank Nifty experienced a range-bound movement with significant support and resistance levels being respected. For the upcoming session on 31-Oct-2024, we have identified key levels, with yellow marking the sideways trend, green indicating bullish movement, and red representing bearish tendencies. This plan includes strategies for each opening scenario.
Trading Plan for 31-Oct-2024
Gap Up Opening (200+ points above)
If Bank Nifty opens with a 200+ point gap up, it may quickly test the Last Resistance for Intraday near 52,160 . If the price can sustain above this level, a further move towards 52,633 is likely. However, if the index fails to hold above 52,160 , it may experience a retracement to the Opening Support/Resistance level at 51,707 .
– Watch for signs of rejection at the 52,160 level, as this may prompt a reversal towards support levels.
Flat Opening (within 50 points of the previous close)
In the case of a flat opening, the immediate level to observe is 51,849 . Sustaining above this point could enable a bullish move towards 52,160 . Failure to maintain momentum above 51,849 may result in sideways movement around the Opening Support/Resistance at 51,707 or even lead to a test of the Best Buying Try Zone near 51,645 .
– A move below 51,645 would likely signal weakness, potentially driving the index lower towards 51,526 .
Gap Down Opening (200+ points below)
A gap-down opening would bring Bank Nifty closer to the Best Buying Try Zone at 51,645 . A bounce from this area could lead the index back to 51,849 . However, if this level does not hold, watch for further decline towards the Buyers Support at Retracement at 51,008 .
– Persistent weakness below 51,008 would indicate a bearish sentiment, with potential downside targets emerging.
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
Define your risk tolerance and adjust your position size accordingly.
Consider using protective strategies, such as stop-loss orders, especially around key resistance/support zones.
Avoid over-leveraging, and monitor volatility closely to avoid sudden adverse moves.
Summary and Conclusion
Key levels for Bank Nifty on 31-Oct-2024 include 52,160 on the upside and 51,645 on the downside. Monitor these levels closely for directional cues. Employ disciplined risk management to navigate through the volatility, especially when trading options.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is based on technical levels and reflects my personal view. Please perform your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before trading.
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 31-Oct-2024
Intro:
On the previous trading day, Nifty exhibited a mix of consolidation and upward momentum, with notable resistance zones tested near 24,594 . Key levels for 31-Oct-2024 have been identified, with trends marked as follows: yellow for sideways movement, green for bullish momentum, and red for bearish sentiment. This plan provides strategies for different opening scenarios.
Trading Plan for 31-Oct-2024
Gap Up Opening (100+ points above)
If Nifty opens 100+ points above the previous close, it may test the First Resistance/Consolidation Zone near 24,594 . If the index sustains above this level, we may see a push towards the Profit Booking Zone at 24,694 . However, if it struggles to hold above 24,594 , expect a retracement towards the Opening Support/Resistance level at 24,320 .
– A reversal from the resistance levels could prompt a move back to the Support at Retracement at 24,163 .
Flat Opening (within 50 points of the previous close)
For a flat opening, the key level to watch is 24,349 . Sustaining above this point could lead to a breakout, targeting 24,594 and possibly extending towards the Profit Booking Zone at 24,694 . Conversely, if momentum fails above 24,349 , Nifty might move sideways around 24,320 or even test the lower support at 24,285 .
– A downside break below 24,285 could increase bearish pressure, with potential support found at 24,163 .
Gap Down Opening (100+ points below)
In a gap-down scenario, initial support may be found near 24,285 . A rebound from this level could bring the price back toward 24,349 . If the index sustains above 24,349 , bullish momentum could retest the resistance at 24,594 . However, if 24,285 fails to hold, a decline towards Support at Retracement near 24,163 is likely.
– Persistent weakness below 24,163 might drive further downside towards the Last Intraday Support at 24,040 .
Risk Management Tips for Options Trading
Manage your position sizes wisely, especially when volatility is high.
Consider deploying trailing stops near major resistance/support levels to protect gains.
Options spreads can limit risk exposure, which is particularly useful in a choppy market.
Summary and Conclusion
The primary focus for 31-Oct-2024 remains on the resistance at 24,594 and support at 24,163 . Traders should stay flexible with these levels and use disciplined stop-loss strategies to manage risks. Observing the price action after the opening will provide better insight into the day’s trend.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is based on technical levels and reflects my personal view. Please perform your own analysis or consult a financial advisor before trading.
Is USDCAD ready for a shift? Watch the resistance zone!USDCAD is approaching a critical resistance zone between 1.39 and 1.396. Despite the upward price movement appearing persistent, it seems unsustainable, indicating a potential downside move toward the 1.37 to 1.38 range. As long as USDCAD remains below 1.396, the potential for a downward shift is likely.
ETH ANALYSIS🔮 #ETH Analysis 🚀🚀
💲💲 #ETH is trading in a Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern. And the price pullbacks from support zone.
There is an instant resistance area and if it sustain here then we will see a bullish move
💸Current Price -- $2678
📈Target Price -- $3310
⁉️ What to do?
- We have marked crucial levels in the chart . We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. 🚀💸
#ETH #Cryptocurrency #DYOR
SEIUSDT Analysis Using Gann TechniquesHello Dear Traders,
In this analysis, we’ll break down SEI/USDT using some of the basic concepts of Gann’s methods. William Gann, a legendary trader, believed in the importance of geometric angles, time cycles, and support/resistance levels to predict price movements. Let’s explore this chart in a beginner-friendly way.
### Key Concepts of Gann
1. **Gann Levels**: These are horizontal lines representing significant price levels. Each level corresponds to a "degree" of rotation (0°, 45°, 90°, etc.) and has an associated price. For example, in this chart:
- 0° = 0.096
- 45° = 0.151239
- 90° = 0.218979
- … and so on up to 360° = 0.887918.
Each level can act as support or resistance depending on the price’s relationship with it.
2. **Gann Angles**: Diagonal lines (sometimes called "Gann Fans") extend from key price points at specific angles, like 45° or 1x1, which Gann considered the most significant angle. In this chart, multiple angles create a grid that divides the price into potential support and resistance zones. The grid structure aids in identifying zones where the price might change direction.
3. **Cycles and Timing**: Gann also emphasized timing as a critical component of price action. Vertical lines in the chart represent time intervals, potentially indicating reversal or pivot points. Observing where price interacts with these lines can give clues about when a trend may change.
### Analyzing SEI/USDT with Gann
Looking at this chart:
- **Support and Resistance**: Notice how SEI’s price tends to bounce or consolidate near certain Gann levels. Currently, the price is hovering around the 180° level (~0.391959), which has been a recent support.
- **Future Movements**: If SEI stays above 180°, it might attempt to retest higher levels like 225° (~0.497198). However, a break below this level could lead to a move toward the 135° level (~0.299219).
- **Downward Trend**: The overall structure shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, but the presence of Gann levels may signal potential reversal points if momentum shifts.
### Summary
This Gann chart suggests that SEI is currently at a critical juncture. Watch how the price behaves around the 180° level. If it holds, it could lead to a rebound toward higher levels; if it fails, we might see further declines. Gann's techniques provide a structured way to interpret support, resistance, and timing, giving us potential clues about future price actions.
Happy Bitcoin White Paper Day! Happy Bitcoin White Paper Day! 📜✨
Today marks an essential day in digital assets and decentralized finance. On October 31, 2008, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin to the world through a revolutionary nine-page white paper, "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System." This blueprint set the foundation for the first decentralized digital currency, fundamentally reshaping our view of money and unlocking new pathways to financial freedom.
As we celebrate this milestone, it’s inspiring to reflect on Bitcoin’s evolution from a bold idea to a powerful global asset that has transformed finance and decentralized ownership. Whether you’re a dedicated HODLer or actively trading, today serves as a reminder of what makes this space truly unique. Let’s honor Satoshi’s vision of decentralization and financial empowerment as we look ahead to Bitcoin’s promising future. Cheers to Bitcoin’s past, present, and all that’s yet to come!