BTC - SHORTPrice respected the higher time frame trend line and tariffs helped out as well. Ultimately see price still pushing down to 73k before buyers start coming back into play.
Beyond Technical Analysis
@Nas Bears seeks The 17,000 handle as Recession fears spark sellfor Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. due to the turbulent rollout of Trump tariffs, which has created significant uncertainty for businesses and policymakers.
Concerns over inflation in the U.S., which were already growing, have intensified, making it more likely that the Federal Reserve will hold off on policy changes for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the risk of recession is increasing across all three countries, and that was witnessed On Monday as wallstreet painted its boards with Red arrows which was not a good sign that being said am anticipating that the Bearish rally will continue till we mitigate @17,000 handle.
waiting for Retest @20,000 Before the bears come in
Tp.17,000 which will be some days to come from today.
Long SOXL: Longer term trade, but one that has worked since 20164 Trades over 8 years
SOXL 3X Levered ETF on Semiconductors
High to low:
Start 2/12/2016: +1,338%, 763 Days
12/24/2018: +392%, 393 Days
3/18/2020: +1,821%, 651 Days
10/13/2022: +937%, 637 Days
Not a quick trade, but it has been profitable.
Stellantis Long Play despite the tariffsI'm a deep value investor.
Current price 8.58 euros per share
I've been looking at Stellantis for a while now and I've done a deep dive in the company's financial and its fundamental value. It's my opinion that the company is fundamentally strong but being traded at a lower price right now. it has dropped 65% since last year and almost 6% today.
The 65% drop has been a significant overreaction to the a missed earnings forecast which has been due to forign currency depriciation in turkish lira (once you do a deep dive in the company's accounts). but the company is still significantly profitable and has a growing revenue and earnings forecast.
Today's 6% drop is an understandable yet overreaction to trump's tariffs as most of the company's buiness is done outside the US and they are betting big on EU and GB car sales (and have been growing in it)
Bottom line is the company is currently priced way below its intrinsic value. its beeing traded at 0.3 times its book value while automotives are being traded at an average 1.7 time book value, and its price to earnings ration (at this time) is 4.57 while automotives average P/E is 11.79 (slightly lifted by TSLA but still)
I'm expecting a target of 12.6 euros per share within the next 6 months.
If you didn't see my last position on CMC markets see my account.
Detailed Analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) – Double Top BreakoutThe chart represents a technical analysis of Silver (XAG/USD) on the daily timeframe (1D). A Double Top pattern, one of the most reliable bearish reversal formations, is developing. This signals a potential downtrend, with key price levels and trendlines confirming weakness in bullish momentum. Below is a full breakdown of the pattern, price action, and trading setup.
1️⃣ Pattern Formation: Double Top – Bearish Reversal
A Double Top pattern occurs when the price reaches a resistance level twice, failing to break higher. It indicates a shift from a bullish trend to a bearish one.
🔹 Characteristics of the Double Top in This Chart:
First Peak (Top 1 - Resistance at ~$34.57):
The price made a strong move upward, reaching a high near $34.57.
Selling pressure at this level pushed the price downward, forming a support level near $30 (Neckline).
Pullback & Temporary Support (~$30 Neckline):
Buyers stepped in at the support zone, causing a bounce back towards resistance.
This level acted as strong demand, preventing further decline temporarily.
Second Peak (Top 2 - Rejection at Resistance Again):
Price attempted to break above the previous peak but failed.
This failure to form a higher high confirms the presence of strong sellers.
The second rejection strengthens the resistance level at $34.57, signaling exhaustion in buying momentum.
Break of the Trendline Support (Bearish Shift):
A previously ascending trendline (black dashed line) was providing support for the uptrend.
Price broke below this trendline, indicating a possible trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
2️⃣ Key Technical Levels & Trading Setup
🔸 Resistance Zone (~$34.57 - Stop Loss Area)
This is the major resistance level, tested twice and confirmed as a supply zone.
A move above $34.57 would invalidate the bearish pattern, making this an ideal stop-loss level.
🔹 Support Level / Neckline (~$30 - Breakdown Confirmation)
The neckline acts as a critical level. If the price breaks below $30, the Double Top formation is confirmed.
If the price retests this level from below and rejects (fails to reclaim it as support), it becomes a strong short entry signal.
🔻 Target Price (Projected Move - $23.01)
The target is based on the measured move rule of a Double Top:
Distance from resistance ($34.57) to neckline ($30) ≈ $4.57.
Projecting this same distance downward gives a target of ~$23.01.
This aligns with historical demand zones, increasing the probability of price reaching this level.
3️⃣ Trading Plan: Short Setup Execution
🔽 Short Entry (Breakdown Confirmation Below $30)
Ideal entry point is after the neckline breaks and confirms resistance upon a retest.
A breakdown with strong volume enhances the validity of the setup.
🚨 Stop Loss Placement (Above $34.57 Resistance Level)
Placing a stop above the second peak ($34.57) ensures protection against invalidation.
If price moves back above this level, the pattern fails, indicating a potential return to bullish momentum.
🎯 Target Price ($23.01) – Measured Move Projection
The price target aligns with the pattern structure and historical support levels.
Traders can take partial profits at intermediary levels ($27–$26) before full target realization.
4️⃣ Additional Confirmation Factors – Confluence for Bearish Bias
1️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI & MACD Bearish Signals
If RSI (Relative Strength Index) drops below 50, it confirms weakening bullish momentum.
A MACD bearish crossover (signal line crossing below the MACD line) would further validate the downtrend.
2️⃣ Volume Analysis – Breakout Confirmation
A high volume breakout below $30 confirms selling pressure.
Low-volume breakdowns can lead to false breakouts, making volume a crucial factor to watch.
3️⃣ Fundamental Factors – Macro Outlook on Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver prices are influenced by interest rates, inflation, and USD strength.
If USD strengthens, silver could face more selling pressure, aligning with this bearish technical setup.
Any hawkish monetary policy statements could accelerate the downside movement.
5️⃣ Risk Management & Alternative Scenarios
✔️ Ideal Risk-Reward Ratio
Risk: Stop loss at $34.57 (~4.5% above entry)
Reward: Target at $23.01 (~23% move)
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:5 (highly favorable for short trades)
⚠️ Bullish Invalidations – When to Avoid the Trade?
If Silver reclaims $34.57 and holds above, the pattern fails.
A false breakout scenario could occur if price breaks below $30 but quickly moves back above.
Watching for bullish divergence on indicators like RSI before entering a short position is recommended.
Final Conclusion: Bearish Bias with Strong Downside Potential
📉 Summary of the Bearish Case:
✔️ Double Top pattern confirms a bearish reversal if the neckline breaks.
✔️ Break of ascending trendline signals increasing seller control.
✔️ Key levels: Stop-loss above $34.57 | Entry below $30 | Target $23.01.
✔️ Additional confluence: RSI, MACD, and volume confirmation strengthen the trade setup.
🚀 If price action aligns with this analysis, this setup presents a high-probability short opportunity.
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🔥
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5000/5030/5785/5815 Iron Condor... for a 10.45 credit.
Comments: High IVR. After having taken small profit on the setup I put on before "Liberation Day," back in with a more symmetric setup in a higher IV environment.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 19.55
Max Profit: 10.45
ROC at Max: 53.45%
50% Max: 5.23
ROC at 50% Max: 26.73%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test, manage at 21 DTE.
Very nice long position on ETHAll is on the chart, we can try a long from here because there is an old restance trend line that is becomed a very good support, after tht we have in green rectangle forming a good support for eth, max leverage 10x even if i suggest 5x, please let me know what you think, last idea on ETH was a falling wedge and i did a big profit with 10k leveraged x10, let me know what do you think guys?? thanks a good monet for everybody
Der Stürmer has gone public and the MAGA APEs are pumping itIf you think this price range will continue and go to the moon, then you may need to check in with your psychologist or local mental health facility.
EURAUD bull flag has completed following the China tariff news!Intraday Update: The EURAUD has completed the bull flag pattern. However, with the headlines today out of China, the risk is we could continue to squeeze, and target is a guess at this point.
Some traders will fade this, I would wait till after US stocks markets reopen
GOLD Can finally Dropped Gold has showing strong Bearish Pattern momentum on 4H time frame the price will recently tested the 3055 and take Hold needs to more fall.
Key levels and Trade setup Traders
Support zones 3085 / 3065 / Long Term 3030
Thanks for your support if you find this idea helpful and learn something new drops a like and leave comment.
Ethereum - The Perfect Crypto Trade!Ethereum ( CRYPTO:ETHUSD ) is retesting massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For the past four years, Ethereum has overall been trading sideways with significant swings towards the upside and downside. As we are speaking, Ethereum is retesting a significant confluence of support and if the bullrun actually continues, Ethereum will rally parabolically.
Levels to watch: $2.000, $4.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Attention: If the price continues to rise frome HERETimeframe: 15m
It’s simple. If grow up my zone. It will go 3119.88. If down from my zone it will go 3078.37. Goodluck.
Nifty Chart DevelopmentA beautiful Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern under formation on the daily chart of Nifty 50.
The support level stands in the range 22600-22800.
Do your own research before taking any financial decision.
USD/CAD Trend in Today's European and American Trading Sessions✍ ✍ ✍ USD/CAD news:
➡️ The USD/CAD pair continued its downtrend for the fourth consecutive day as selling pressure on the US dollar remained dominant.
➡️ Concerns that Trump's tariffs could lead to a US recession, prompting the Fed to cut interest rates, weighed on the greenback.
➡️ Meanwhile, overnight declines in crude oil prices weakened the Canadian dollar, providing some support to the pair.
➡️ Additionally, traders appeared hesitant to take fresh positions ahead of upcoming jobs reports from both the US and Canada.
Personal opinion:
➡️ The USD/CAD pair is showing signs of a bullish recovery after entering oversold territory. This bodes well for the pair.
➡️ In the long run, the trade war impact will lead to more risks for currencies like CAD. So this is still an advantage for the USD
➡️ Analysis based on important physical dimensions - support and Fibonacci combined with EMA and trend to come up with a suitable strategy
Plan:
🔆Setting up the price zone:
👉Buy USD/CAD 1.4110– 1.4100
❌SL: 1.3970 | ✅TP: 1.4160 – 1.4200
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Gold Rebound Looms: Don’t Miss the $50 OpportunityDuring his ongoing speech, Powell mentioned that tariffs may push inflation higher in the coming quarters. While inflation is currently close to the 2% target, it still remains above it. The market has already begun to anticipate a Fed rate cut, which is a potential bullish signal for gold.
From a technical perspective, the recent drop has partially corrected the previous bearish divergence. However, the divergence on the 1D chart still requires more time to be fully resolved.
At the current level, gold appears oversold. I do not recommend chasing short positions here. A short-term rebound is very likely, with a potential upside target between 3078-3096. If you manage the trade well, there’s an opportunity to capture at least $50 in profit.
If you’re currently holding long positions that are under pressure, stay strong. Don’t give up before the dawn — yesterday was a great example of why persistence matters.
EUR/USD – Bullish Flag Pattern & Trade SetupTechnical Analysis & Trade Plan for TradingView Idea
This chart illustrates a Bullish Flag Pattern on the EUR/USD 1-hour timeframe, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing uptrend. Below is a detailed breakdown of the market structure, key levels, and a professional trading strategy.
📌 Chart Pattern: Bullish Flag Formation
The Bullish Flag is a continuation pattern that forms after a strong upward price movement, followed by a short period of consolidation within a downward-sloping channel. It signals a brief pause before the trend resumes.
Flagpole: The sharp price increase before the consolidation.
Flag: The corrective downward movement forming a small parallel channel.
Breakout Potential: A confirmed breakout above resistance could lead to a further bullish rally.
🔍 Key Technical Levels & Market Structure
🔵 Resistance Level (Supply Zone)
The upper boundary of the flag pattern acts as resistance.
A breakout above this level could trigger a strong buying opportunity.
🟢 Support Level (Demand Zone)
The lower boundary of the flag provides support.
Price is currently testing this zone, which is a critical decision point.
🎯 Target Price: 1.14544 (Projected Move)
The price target is calculated based on the height of the flagpole added to the breakout point.
This aligns with a previous significant resistance area.
📈 Trading Strategy & Execution Plan
✅ Entry Criteria:
A confirmed breakout above the flag's resistance level with a strong bullish candlestick.
Increased trading volume supporting the breakout.
🚨 Risk Management:
Stop Loss: Placed below the support zone of the flag to manage risk in case of a false breakout.
Take Profit Target: At 1.14544, aligning with the measured move of the flag pattern.
📊 Trade Confirmation Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A reading above 50 confirms bullish momentum.
Moving Averages (50 EMA/200 EMA): A bullish crossover would strengthen the buying signal.
Volume Analysis: A breakout should be accompanied by high trading volume for confirmation.
⚠️ Potential Risks & Alternative Scenarios
Fake Breakout: If the price breaks out but lacks volume, it could be a false signal.
Bearish Reversal: If price breaks below the support zone, the bullish flag setup becomes invalid.
Market Sentiment Shift: Unexpected news events can impact price movement.
📝 Summary
The EUR/USD pair has formed a Bullish Flag Pattern, signaling a possible continuation of the uptrend.
A breakout above the resistance level would confirm the pattern and provide a strong buying opportunity.
Risk management is essential, with a stop loss placed below the support level.
Final Target: 1.14544, based on the flagpole’s measured move.
💡 Conclusion: A well-structured breakout above resistance could lead to a bullish rally toward 1.14544. However, patience and confirmation are key before entering the trade.
Opening (IRA): SOXL May 16th 17 Covered Call... for a 15.68 debit.
Comments: Laddering out a smidge here, selling the -84 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 16 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 15.68
Max Profit: 1.32
ROC at Max: 8.42%
50% Max: .66
ROC at 50% Max: 4.21%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens than what I currently have on, and/or roll out short call if my take profit is not hit.
Opening (IRA): PLTR May 17th 100 Covered Call... for a 86.55 debit.
Comments: After closing out my long-dated covered call for a realized gain, re-upping with a shorter duration setup with a max profit potential of greater than 11.18, which is what I'm net down on this underlying YTD.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 86.55
Max Profit: 13.45
Will look to roll out the short call at 50% max to reduce my break even.
1 Month Bitcoin Consolidation, and Back to $100,000Following the global liquidity with a 109-day delay, the price of BTC should consolidate between the upper 70s and low 80s until the first week of May before increasing back to over $100,000 and eventually to new ATHs. This will coincide with the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve purchase in the US.
P.S - incredibly impressed with how Bitcoin is holding up whilst the stock market is crashing.
EurUsd 4April25Price has rallied into an Order Block on the Daily and is distributing beautifully. We intend to sell into certain zones and then react to what price does from those zones...
CDW - CDW Corp. (Weekly chart, NASDAQ) - Long PositionCDW - CDW Corp. (Weekly chart, NASDAQ) - Long Position; Mid-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {support structure and market structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.91
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 146
Entry limit ~ 138 on April 04, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 154 (+11.59%; +16 points)
2. Target limit ~ 164 (+18.84%; +26 points)
3. Target limit ~ 170 (+23.19%; +32 points)
Stop order limit ~ 127 (-7.97 %; -11 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
Maintain bearish trend awaiting US NFP news✍ ✍ ✍ Gold news:
➡️Gold extended its correction ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls release, falling below $3,100 as markets remained volatile. Investors remained uncertain about the direction of the market following Trump's retaliatory tariff announcement. Meanwhile, gold continued to face profit-taking pressure while seeking support for its recovery.
Personal opinion:
➡️ With the upcoming NFP news, gold prices are expected to remain in a short-term downtrend zone pending this important news.
➡️Analysis based on important resistance - support zones and Fibonacci combined with trend lines and SAM to come up with a suitable strategy
Resistance zone: 3112– 3133 -3165
Support zone: 3079 - 3067 - 3058
Plan:
🔆Price Zone Setup:
👉Buy Gold 3077- 3079 (Scalping)
❌SL: 3074| ✅TP: 3082 – 3085 – 3090
👉Buy Gold 3058- 3060
❌SL: 3053| ✅TP: 3065 – 3070 – 3080
👉Sell Gold 3108 - 3110 (Scalping)
❌SL: 3115 | ✅TP: 3104 – 3100 – 3096
👉Sell Gold 3033- 3035
❌SL: 3140 | ✅TP: 3128 – 3122 – 3115
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Massive storm hiting the crypto market soon!The Correlation Between SPX500 (Wall Street) & Crypto 📉📈
The relationship between SPX500 and crypto is not always stable. Sometimes they move in sync, like the Earth and Moon, and other times, they are completely decoupled. But rarely, we get an eclipse—a moment of total disconnection.
And guess what? That’s about to happen.
🔎 What’s Happening?
Looking at the charts, SPX500 had a massive rally last year, but while Wall Street boomed, crypto was bleeding. Most altcoins were slaughtered, and the TOTAL crypto market cap suffered.
But now, SPX500 is overbought, while crypto is oversold.
👉 This time, the decoupling will work in crypto’s favor!
💰 $2 Trillion in Sidelined Cash Ready to Flow In
Right now, about $2 trillion USD is sitting on the sidelines—money that institutional investors are hesitant to deploy due to market uncertainty. Many are keeping their funds in USD or foreign bonds instead of taking risks.
However, if you check my April/May forecast, we can see that:
✅ Crypto will be deeply oversold (confirmed by RSI & weekly MACD crossover).
✅ The US Dollar is weakening, forcing investors to move their money into other assets.
✅ SPX500 turning bearish = capital rotating into crypto.
🚀 The Perfect Storm for Crypto
📉 SPX500 bearish
💵 USD weakening
📈 Crypto bullish
This creates the perfect setup for rich investors to flood the crypto market with fresh liquidity.
💡 What does this mean for prices?
- CRYPTOCAP:BTC could double (100% gain).
- Altcoins could skyrocket (x10 to x100).
- This would finally trigger the altseason we’ve been waiting for—the parabolic move that happens once every four years.
📆 Timeline: April – June 2025
This move will be so explosive that it will eventually trigger a correction—possibly leading to a bear market. However, since crypto now moves in 6-month cycles, this correction should end by December 2025, setting up another leg up.
🏁 Final Thoughts
This kind of SPX500 & crypto decoupling is extremely rare, so positioning before the rotation starts is crucial.
⏳ Exact timing? Hard to say. But April/May looks like the moment when everything aligns.
🚨 DYOR as always—anything can happen to invalidate this idea.
