Beyond Technical Analysis
USD_CHF SHORT SIGNAL|
✅USD_CHF is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 0.8860
Thus I am expecting a pullback
Which means we can enter a
Short trade with the TP of 0.8835
And the SL of 0.8866 but its is a
Risky setup so we recommend to use
A small lot size
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Tuesday, 1st April 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-ISM Manufacturing PMI
-JOLTS Job Openings
Analysis:
-Strong bullish closure on daily
-Looking for continuation to the upside after 4hr structure retest
-Potential BUY if there's confirmation on lower timeframe
-Pivot point: 3100
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
USDJPY_2025-03-31Insane Trade Today.
Drawdown:3.8pips
TP: 81 Pips
To start the week, we have price reach and hover at a daily Luquidity Void.
From there, During London came a entry - Below Asia Low.
We would look to enter here being a bit bullish on the DLV.
To reinforce this buy idea, (if you didnt enter at asia low)
Price then broke a near high.
Retraces to the 15min Orderblock, then continued upward to TP at 81pips.
SPY - Macro-Market Overview and what the algorithms are sayingCurrently we are being guided by a strong selling teal on the LTF but we must keep in mind the HTF algorithms of red and white (which are bullish liquidity builders). Right now, we need to see who wins out in this fight between teal and red - if we break red and prove teal guidance, we are definitively in strong selling and can easily make our way toward the HTF white at the low $500's.
As always, let the algorithms guide you!
Happy Trading :)
Idea #100 - In this market, it BETTER be a good one: LONG WMTIt's been a while since I posted an idea and to those who follow me I am sorry/not sorry. I didn't post for a few reasons:
1) I know that there are people who trade my ideas despite my warnings/disclaimers and I didn't like how the market was acting for the last couple of weeks (rightly, as it turns out) and I didn't want anyone else to get caught up in this unnecessarily. I have been continuing to personally trade my system, with mixed results (to be expected in this market), but I wanted to make #100 a good one.
2) I wanted to do a summary of the ideas I've posted so far with #100 and wanted to get that information together first.
3) I think posting this now can provide some insights as to how to deal with market washouts calmly and with confidence, with things that could apply to most trading systems, I think.
So first, lets deal with the idea at hand. I chose WMT because:
a) it is historically a top 10% stock in terms of daily % return for how I trade, so if anyone decided to follow me on this trade (see disclaimer below), it was at least a stock that has historically done well. And by well, I mean 1355-0 W/L record well, with an AVERAGE gain of 5.16% per trade for all 1355 trades (backtested and actual trades combined) going back through every market meltdown since 1972.
b) This is the kind of market that makes it FAR more likely that trades will take a long time to play out. MUCH longer than average. So again, if I have to hold this a long time, I want a quality stock that has a long track record of surviving long downtrends in the market. I can't think of a better retail stock to own during a recession, which I think is a certainty at this point, it's just a question of when it becomes official and how long it lasts. WMT is already the retailer of choice for many, and if saving money becomes a requirement for many more, WMT will steal a lot of business from more expensive retailers.
c) despite the recent carnage for it and the market, WMT is still above it's 200d MA and solidly in an uptrend. I always like trading stocks in uptrends. Hopefully it stays in one long enough for me to make my money and run.
Lot 1 opened today at the close at 87.82
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
_______________________________
So there's my case for WMT. Now here's the case for why I'm trading anything using my system right now. The first idea I posted here was on June 22nd of this past summer. Since the close that day, the Nasdaq's return is actually negative (-1.48%) and the S&P 500 is up marginally (+2.7%).
Since June 22nd, I have logged (timestamped) here every buy and sell of every lot of every idea since then. That amounts to a total of 330 lots traded. In the time since, 289 of those trades closed with a gain, 37 are still open and negative, and two were opened today (this one and an add to RDDT) which are neither winning nor losing yet. That's an 87.6% win rate so far.
INCLUDING the 37 trades that are losers right now (the losers include 8 lots that are down 30% or more and two options trades that each lost 100%), the AVERAGE return on those 330 trades is +1.88% EACH. That translates to .11% per day held - almost 3x the long term average daily return for stocks and almost 8x the average daily return of the S&P 500 since June 22. Annualized, that's 27% rate of return and I was on pace for a 36% annualized rate of return on these trades before this market swoon hit. Compared to -1.48% and 2.4% for the indices, it's been a pretty good 9 months of trading, but actually below my system's long term average.
The profit factor on these trades (including the open losers) is currently 1.98 (it was over 2.5 2 weeks ago before the market collapse began). The average holding period is 17 days, but that is skewed longer by 10 lots of PXS that I've been holding for over 4 months each. The median hold length for all 330 trades is 5 trading days and the most common holding period (including the 37 still open losers) is ONE trading day.
OK, this turned out to be a longer post than I intended, so I'll post another idea tomorrow with some thoughts about dealing with trading in down markets.
To everyone who is reading this and especially those who are following me - thanks for the follows and for taking the time to read this whole thing. Be safe trading out there!
TLT longer term high...I do dowsing and checked on TLT today. My work is suggesting this is a longer term high and that TLT will move down to around $85.
I'm not the best at getting time frames for things to occur, but I ask anyway. At a minimum dates more often than not signal some kind of reversal - though it may only be short term. Anyway, I get $85 in about 21 days, or 3/19. I like TLT options. They're cheap and if TLT can keep from any close higher than these highs, I think good odds for down.
NVDA support idea $108.90I do dowsing with a pendulum to get answers on what to expect in the market and stocks. I checked on NVDA today, and along with indexes soon (tomorrow) making a somewhat lasting (or longer term) low, I have a level for at least a bounce.
Tomorrow could be a big down day for stocks and indexes as I have timing for a low, but we have yet to reach targets. The $108 area has come before in NVDA, so I feel it really should be a spot to watch. The more refined level is $108.90, so it will be fun to see what happens here; and of course, I could be completely wrong & it does something else!
LEAP: GBPUSD Week 14 Swing Zone/LevelsWe'll stick with the same calculations as last week and before.
Price should follow the same logic as any mathematical principle—calculable, predictable, and consistent. The key variables are the broader market factors and the strength of the trend.
With that in mind, swing zones and levels are marked on the chart, and price will ultimately decide between option A or B.
SPY timing for low Tgt $585My short idea target was hit (and blown yesterday, tho QQQ idea was almost perfect), and if you saw the last idea, I mentioned the date of the 11th was in play. This seems accurate from what I'm getting now with my dowsing work.
I am quite pumped that the timing was so good. The upside target (repeating) is around $585. When I ask what date this hits by, I get 3/25. We shall see if lightning can strike twice!
USO swing high- short tgt 65-66I asked my dowsing for the next trade to help reach my goal for the year, and it's oil/ USO. I do believe this will include oil stocks, so I may ask for dowsing to choose one from a list. If I do & get the reading done on it, I'll post it as another idea.
My latest work is pretty decent, but a work in progress. I'm really trying to determine time frames for when targets will hit so we can get the right options & mental expectation (i.e. patience) for things to develop.
The target is 65. In my mind I got 63, but I'm only sharing that because I'm also testing my own intuition more lately. The date we hit by is around April 28th.
I also have been guided to get dates from the past as an indication of what to expect, & the date given was 1/21, which was a gap down. I suspect there will be a gap down tomorrow, or at least the move down starts more aggressively. This has worked in prior ideas on TSLA & I think SPY... but can't remember.
I really am enjoying this method so far as my levels are often hit & I can just relax & allow things to happen with more faith they will. Of course, there's always the chance it's completely wrong & it is a smaller move, but we'll see.
USOIL: Next Week's Blueprint for Profit Amid VolatilityDuring the US trading session on Friday, March 28th, international oil prices fluctuated slightly and declined. However, both Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil remained firmly near their one - month highs and were projected to register "three consecutive weekly gains" on the weekly chart. The ongoing tug - of - war between the supply tightness instigated by geopolitical unrest and the latent concerns regarding an economic downturn has placed oil prices in a volatile state of being "caught between a rock and a hard place".
From the perspective of the USOIL daily chart, following the medium - term trend's breach of the lower edge of the range, it has predominantly fluctuated around lower levels. The oil price has experienced consecutive short - term increases, breaking through the suppression of the moving average system, and the medium - term objective trend has entered a transition phase. Nevertheless, in terms of kinetic energy, neither the bulls nor the bears have demonstrated a clear - cut inclination to overpower the other. It is anticipated that the medium - term trend will persist in its volatile rhythm for a while, awaiting the establishment of a distinct trend direction.
The short - term (1H) trend of USOIL has not continuously set new highs and has exhibited a pattern of high - level consolidation. The short - term objective trend remains upward. In the early trading session, the oil price underwent a narrow adjustment at a high level, presenting an overall secondary rhythm with a sound internal rhythm. The fundamental objective trend during the week has been upward in sync, and it is highly likely that the short - term trend of USOIL will continue its upward trajectory next week.
USOIL
buy@68-68.5
tp:69.5-70
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Waiting for a healthy pullback or FOMO push to 3150+?🔸 News Update: Geopolitical Turmoil Boosts Gold’s Appeal 🔸
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported missile strikes on Ukrainian SBU and special operations units, further escalating tensions in Eastern Europe. This, combined with China’s continued gold hoarding and a weaker USD, has kept gold’s bullish momentum intact.
🟥 Sell Setup (Liquidity Trap Short)
Entry Zone: $3,121 – $3,125 (Liquidity Grab + HTF Supply)
Trigger: M5/M15 Bearish CHoCH + Weak Bullish Reaction
SL: Above $3,130 (Invalidation Level)
TP1: $3,100 (First Target)
TP2: $3,085 (Deep Profit Zone)
TP3: $3,074 (Full Breakdown)
📌 Why?
Liquidity Hunt Potential → Market may fake out longs before reversal
Bearish Order Flow Zone → Major supply area where sellers are active
HTF Expansion Exhaustion → Price needs to cool off before further gains
🟥 Sell Setup 2 (Momentum Reversal – Only If Confirmed)
Entry Zone: 3,150 – 3,155 (Extreme Supply Zone)
Trigger: Bearish CHoCH + FVG reaction
SL: Above 3,160
TP1: 3,120
TP2: 3,100
TP3: 3,073
📌 Reasoning:
Extreme premium level where HTF supply could react
Only valid if price extends to this level without pullback
Ideal for a larger reversal if bullish momentum fades
🟢 Buy Setup 3 (Intraday Continuation Play – If $3,100 Rejects)
Entry: $3,092 – $3,094 (LQ sweep + minor demand zone)
Trigger: M1/M5 CHoCH + bullish rejection wick
SL: Below $3,090
TP1: $3,100
TP2: $3,108
TP3: $3,117
📌 Why This Zone?
If NY sweeps $3,100 liquidity and retraces, $3,092 – $3,094 could be a quick buy-the-dip area.
Only valid if the previous demand structure remains intact.
Ideal for short-term scalps rather than a deep retrace buy.
⚠ If price drops aggressively below $3,090, don’t force the buy—$3,083 – $3,087 is the next stronger zone.
🟢 Next Fresh Buy Setup (If Price Dips Again)
Entry Zone: $3,067 – $3,070 (Untapped demand + imbalance fill)
Trigger: M1/M5 CHoCH + bullish confirmation
SL: Below $3,064 (Liquidity protection)
TP1: $3,090 (Reaction level)
TP2: $3,108 (Liquidity grab target)
TP3: $3,120+ (Continuation move)
📌 Why This Zone?
Previous NY session left unmitigated demand here.
If price pulls back, smart money will likely buy from this area.
Gold still bullish – this is the next potential buy-the-dip zone.
⚠️ If $3,067 fails, deeper support at $3,055 – watch for a strong reaction there!!
✅ Key Takeaways
✔ Gold remains bullish above $3,074 – buy dips, but avoid FOMO.
✔ A liquidity grab below $3,080 could be the next major long opportunity.
✔ Sells are scalps only – favor longs unless $3,067 breaks.
📌 Important Notice!!!
The above analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always compare with your own plan and wait for confirmation before taking action.
Good luck on the market today.