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Beyond Technical Analysis

Post Election Bitcoin and Crypto Market UpdateThis is a shorter version of my video yesterday, just recapping what I've been seeing and forecasting in these markets. Didn't expect to see the rally to new ATH so quickly. Or the DXY to push up higher at the same time... But here we are breaking and apparently holding new ATH, so I do think we continue to push higher. Even if we get one more sell off, to re-test the ATH as support. Yesterday's pump was part short-squeeze, and part SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:1B in BTC ETF inflows. In this video we look at BTC and SOL, which I believe will lead the next leg of the Bull. Also an interesting speculative study on the Pi Cycle Top, and the idea we could see a double top or dual-cycle in the next 12 months, like we did in 2013. As well as recapping why my targets are $100k (conservative), $150k (base case), and $200k (aggressive) along with confluent targets based on measured moves from the Bull Flag breakout. Let me know what you think, and if I missed anything! Brett
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BrettFogle
End of Year Palladium Bull Run \o/From the current notation, I see this leveraged ETF on Palladium rising approximately 45% until the end of the year. The reasons are as follows: Fundamental Factors : With increasing sanctions on Russia, one of the main exporters of palladium, global supply may become constrained. Furthermore, inflationary pressures might drive commodity prices higher. Technical Indicators : The Palladium chart has recently formed a higher high, and a higher low appears to be developing. The price has crossed above the 200-day SMA, and now the 30-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs are bullishly aligned. Seasonality: The seasonal strength in OANDA:XPDUSD is expected to begin the week after next. So, we could get ready for rising prices in Palladium!
LSE:2PALLong
by p4917
GOLD H12 IdeaRecord High and Pullback Gold recently hit a record high of $2,790.17, mainly driven by safe-haven buying due to uncertainty around the U.S. election and tensions in the Middle East. However, it pulled back to $2,736.45 as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields rose, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. Weak Jobs Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations The latest U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a low increase of 12,000 jobs, supporting hopes for a Fed rate cut on November 7. This expected cut could make gold more appealing by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. A 25-basis-point cut is nearly priced in, though dollar strength is currently offsetting some of this potential support. Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Reversal Gold’s weekly chart shows a possible bearish reversal pattern, with $2,724.75 as a critical support level. If prices drop below this level, it could lead to further declines, potentially targeting $2,697.28 or even $2,604.39. Upcoming Events and Market Impact With the U.S. presidential election and Fed decision next week, markets expect heightened volatility. The election uncertainty could continue to support gold’s safe-haven demand, while a Fed rate cut might add further upside if announced. Outlook If gold holds above $2,724.75, it may signal consolidation and possible upside, especially if the Fed cuts rates as anticipated. Conversely, a break below this support could confirm a short-term correction. For now, the market leans toward a cautious bearish stance in the short term, with potential support from safe-haven demand and lower rates longer term. Traders should monitor critical levels and prepare for swings tied to the election and Fed decision.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GOLDFXCC
15 bets better than betting on Trump/Harris victory!If you think markets will move significantly after the Election result read this article! Let me help analyze this from a trading/investing perspective. The key differences between these approaches: 1. Strangle Options Strategy: - Has defined risk (maximum loss is premium paid) - Based on measurable market movements - Regulated through established financial markets - Success depends on significant price movement in either direction - Multiple exit opportunities before expiration - Average expected profits shown in the table range from 53-320% 2. Election Markets: - Binary outcome - Current pricing suggests narrower potential returns - Less liquidity than major stock options - Single outcome date - Not regulated in the same way as securities markets I'd encourage focusing on the following: 1. Your risk tolerance 2. Your expertise in the chosen market 3. The regulatory framework you're comfortable operating within 4. Your ability to actively manage positions 5. Your overall investment strategy and goals
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Moshkelgosha
Crypto Frenzy: Elon Musk's Impact on Bitcoin and DogecoinCryptocurrencies are skyrocketing just 7 days before the presidential election, and many people are wondering why. The answer, which should come as no surprise, is of course, Elon Musk.The reason is a perfect storm of sorts. Musk’s increased prominence as he campaigns for Donald Trump, his recent comments about cryptocurrency, and his potential role in a Trump administration (should Trump win) are all driving up the price of Bitcoin as well as Dogecoin and a number of other meme coins.Dogecoin, a favorite of Musk’s, was up 9.7% on Tuesday. This comes after the tech billionaire said at a Trump political rally in Pennsylvania that he’s not “actively involved” in crypto: “I just like Dogecoin.” The billionaire founder of Tesla and Space X and owner of X has a long history with Dogecoin, which he first promoted in 2021 on Saturday Night Live, causing the price to spike, only to plunge afterward. (The meme coin’s price has gone up and down based on Musk’s comments since.)Musk, who has been actively campaigning for the Republican nominee and raising money for Trump, has also said he would be heading the Department of Government Efficiency, dubbed DOGE, if the former president is elected. That has also contributed to the frenzy, leading to a more-than-20% gain in Dogecoin over the past seven days, and 33% over the month. Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which is the largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalization, was up over 4.4% on Tuesday, seemingly swept up in the excitement. It’s now trading just short of its March record high.
by habib75rajabi
USDJPY - Analysis My main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 3📈🌐 Where Can Bitcoin Go? Part 3: Revisiting the Big Chart and Preparing for the Next Breakout 🚀💡 chart: Hey everyone! FX Professor here, and it’s time to revisit what I call my 'Big Chart' as we continue our exploration into Bitcoin’s future price movements. Back in March 2023, Bitcoin was trading below $25,000, and today, we’re looking at how the landscape has shifted and what we can expect moving forward. In this post, we’re sticking purely to technical analysis—focusing on Bitcoin’s halving cycles, my 3 major key trend lines, and the overall technical structure that has proven reliable over the years. Key Insights: Halving Cycles & All-Time Highs: Historically, all-time highs have followed 548 to 565 days after a halving event. Could we see similar patterns play out in 2025? Trend Line Mastery: My Big Chart tracks three critical trend lines that have been instrumental in identifying breakout and support zones. These levels continue to offer crucial guidance. February 2024 Breakout: Earlier this year, we had a major breakout in Februar y, leading to a test of the $73,000 level. After some consolidation, what comes next? What to Watch Next: We’ve seen Bitcoin break out above major resistance levels after finding strong support around $58,800. This support is part of an ascending trend, meaning it will rise as the price continues upward. As we could be approaching the $100,000 zone, the question is: Will we hit all-time highs (peaks) earlier than usual? (pattern says end of 2025). With a strong possibility of achieving this 400 to 450 days after the halving, we could see this sooner than expected (550 days historical pattern) Major Levels: Support: Currently, the key support level is at $58,800, but as the price trends upward, this level is ascending and will be rising as time goes by. Resistance: The next major resistance is at $105,800. A break above this could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. This will be the third attempt (the green 3, if you know you know!) The journey continues! Follow along as we track Bitcoin’s path toward new highs. Drop your comments below, and let me know what you think! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Part 1: Part 2: and always remember:
Long
by FX_Professor
9
DOGE COIN SWING LONG IDEA - MEMECOINDOGE is the leading coin in the meme sector of crypto and occasionally receives direct support from Elon Musk. With Musk potentially in office alongside President Trump, this coin could see significant upward momentum. Technical Analysis: The price recently broke the bearish trendline that’s been in place since the end of October. During this breakout, we also established a strong daily demand zone. Today, there’s been a notable upside movement following news about Elon Musk's involvement with Trump. I anticipate a retracement to the daily and 4-hour demand zones, which are aligned with the Fibonacci optimal trade entry area. I’ll look for lower time frame confirmations to enter the trade. Target: $0.23 Stop Loss: $0.14
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
Opening (IRA): GDX Dec 20th 36 Covered Call... for a 35.29 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 35.29/share Max Profit: .71 ROC at Max: 2.01% 50% Max: .36 ROC at 50% Max: 1.00% That 1.00% ROC at 50% max is kind of "marginal," but just trying to keep theta on and burning with little stuff that I can add to should I have the opportunity to get in in higher IV/weakness.
AMEX:GDXLong
by NaughtyPines
Election Year Cycle & Stock Market Returns - VisualisedIn this chart, we're analysing the open value of the week the US election took place and comparing it to the open of the following election, showing the gain (or loss) in value between each election cycle. Historically we can see prices in the Dow Jones Industrials Index tend to appreciate the week the election is held. Only twice has the return between the cycles produced a negative return. Buying stocks on election day, 8 out of 10 times has yielded a profitable return between the election cycles. 80% of the time in the past 40 years returning a profit, has so far been a good strategy to take. The typical cycle starts with the election results, an immediate positive movement and continued growth before finishing positive. The Outliers 2000-2004 was the only year which ended negative without prices going higher than the election day. 2004-2008 increased 41.84% before ending negative. 2008-2012 began the cycle falling 30.62% before finishing positive. The names of presidents who won their respective elections is to visualise who had the presidential term during that specific cycle.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Mt.BFX
Opening (IRA): TQQQ December 20th 74 Covered Call... for a 71.29 debit. Comments: Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I'm looking at this as a starter position because I kind of have a feeling that I'm going to regret not putting this on in weakness/higher IV and will be adding at better strikes/break evens (only time will tell). Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 71.29/share Max Profit: 2.71 ROC at Max: 3.80% 50% Max: 1.36 ROC at 50% Max: 1.90%
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
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SKILLING:SOYBEANLong
by Thief_Trader
Meta Platforms , Inc _ Quarter _ 4 _ Distribution _ Prices: Meta Platforms , Inc _ Quarter _ 4 _ Distribution _ Prices: To get to the future prices I will calculate the economy range for previous 2 years. From 1st of September 2021 to 1st of September 2023 is exactly 2 years. From 1st of September 2023 to 22nd of January 2024 is 4 months and 21 days. So, the total time between the dates is 2 years, 4 months, and 21 days. Now I will use my own mathematical model and engineer them with current time and data to get the future prices which will cover between Quarter 4, 2024 and Quarter 1, 2025 period. 1st Cycle distribution ( Next Prices): $610.57 $622.65 Retest $601.85 __________ $633.78 $639.79 $640.95 $643.55 $654.72 $686.74 _______________ 2nd Cycle distribution ( Next Prices): $757.25 $870.42 $985.71 $1,284.71
NASDAQ:METALong
by Skill-Knowledge-Conduct
Opening (IRA): USO December 20th 68 Covered Call... for a 66.48 debit. Comments: Back into the slippery stuff with /CL trading at 70.48. Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. My basic approach here is to dink and donk on the underlying when /CL is at $70/bbl. or below. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 66.48 Max Profit: 1.52 ROC at Max: 2.29% 50% Max: .76 ROC at 50% Max: 1.15% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max; roll out short call on take profit test. I'll also look to add "rungs" should I be able to do so at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Is Tesla's $1 Trillion Market Cap Sustainable in the Long Run?A Milestone Achieved Tesla, the electric vehicle pioneer led by Elon Musk, has once again shattered records by surpassing a $1 trillion market capitalization. This significant milestone, achieved in early November 2024, solidifies Tesla's position as a dominant force in the automotive industry and a symbol of innovation and disruption. The Factors Behind the Surge Several key factors have contributed to Tesla's remarkable market performance: 1. Strong Financial Performance: Tesla has consistently delivered strong financial results, with record-breaking revenue and profitability. The company's focus on cost reduction, operational efficiency, and product innovation has driven its growth. 2. Accelerated EV Adoption: The global shift towards electric vehicles has gained momentum, fueled by increasing environmental concerns and government incentives. Tesla, as the leading EV manufacturer, is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. 3. Innovative Product Lineup: Tesla's diverse product portfolio, including electric vehicles, energy storage solutions, and autonomous driving technology, has captivated consumers and investors alike. The company's continuous innovation and cutting-edge technology have solidified its position as a technology leader. 4. Elon Musk's Visionary Leadership: Elon Musk's charismatic leadership and ambitious vision have inspired confidence among investors and consumers. His unwavering commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology has propelled Tesla to new heights. 5. Favorable Regulatory Environment: The supportive regulatory environment for electric vehicles in key markets, such as the United States and China, has further boosted Tesla's growth prospects. The Road Ahead As Tesla continues to expand its operations and introduce new products, the company's future prospects remain bright. However, several challenges lie ahead: 1. Intensifying Competition: The electric vehicle market is becoming increasingly competitive, with traditional automakers and emerging startups investing heavily in electric vehicle technology. 2. Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain disruptions, particularly related to semiconductor shortages, could impact Tesla's production and delivery timelines. 3. Economic Uncertainty: Economic downturns and geopolitical tensions could negatively impact consumer demand for electric vehicles. 4. Regulatory Risks: Changes in government policies and regulations could affect Tesla's operations and profitability. Despite these challenges, Tesla's strong brand, innovative products, and dedicated customer base position the company for continued growth and success. As the electric vehicle revolution accelerates, Tesla is poised to remain at the forefront, shaping the future of transportation and energy. Conclusion Tesla's achievement of a $1 trillion market capitalization is a testament to its disruptive innovation, strong leadership, and favorable market conditions. While challenges persist, the company's long-term vision and strategic execution position it for continued growth and success in the years to come.
TLong
by bryandowningqln
Is BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF the Future of Digital Gold Investing?BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF: A New Era of Digital Gold A Golden Opportunity BlackRock, a titan in the world of finance, has made a significant move into the cryptocurrency market with its Bitcoin ETF. This development marks a pivotal moment in the mainstream adoption of digital assets, potentially signaling a new era of investment opportunities. The Appeal of Bitcoin ETFs Bitcoin ETFs offer several advantages to investors: • Accessibility: ETFs provide a convenient way for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without the complexities of directly purchasing and storing the cryptocurrency. • Regulatory Oversight: ETFs are subject to regulatory oversight, which can increase investor confidence and reduce risks associated with direct cryptocurrency investments. • Diversification: Bitcoin ETFs can be used to diversify investment portfolios, potentially reducing overall risk. • Liquidity: ETFs generally offer higher liquidity compared to direct cryptocurrency investments, making it easier to buy and sell shares. BlackRock's Strategic Move BlackRock's decision to launch a Bitcoin ETF is a strategic move that underscores the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. The firm's reputation and vast resources can help legitimize Bitcoin as a viable investment asset and attract a wider range of investors. The Impact on the Crypto Market The launch of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF could have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market: • Increased Institutional Adoption: As more institutional investors gain access to Bitcoin through ETFs, it could lead to increased price stability and reduced volatility. • Price Appreciation: The influx of institutional capital could drive up the price of Bitcoin, potentially leading to significant gains for investors. • Regulatory Clarity: The success of Bitcoin ETFs could pave the way for further regulatory clarity and standardization in the cryptocurrency industry. • Innovation and Development: Increased investment in the cryptocurrency ecosystem could spur innovation and the development of new blockchain-based applications. Challenges and Considerations While the launch of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is a positive development, it is important to consider the potential challenges and risks: • Market Volatility: The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and Bitcoin prices can fluctuate significantly. • Regulatory Risks: Changes in regulatory policies could impact the performance of Bitcoin ETFs. • Security Concerns: Cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets are vulnerable to hacking attacks, which could lead to losses for investors. Conclusion BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF represents a significant milestone in the evolution of the cryptocurrency market. By providing a regulated and accessible way to invest in Bitcoin, the ETF could attract a new wave of investors and further solidify the cryptocurrency's position as a valuable asset class. However, investors should approach Bitcoin ETFs with caution and carefully consider the risks involved.
ILong
by bryandowningqln