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Opening (IRA): SPY Dec 20th 505 Covered Call... for a 501.71 debit. Comments: Re-upping at a higher strike than the one I just took off, looking to capture an additional little increment of upmove that I missed out on. If you wanted to be really anal about it, you could capture all of the up move over time (or capture the same increment more than once). For example, say I just took off the November 15th 500 covered call at or near max (e.g., 499.80). I can then shop for a monied covered call to capture the next increment of movement from 499.80 up, so I'd want to get into a setup for 499.80 or less. This would be the Jan 31st 506 covered call, currently trading for 499.72 and would ostensibly capture the move from 499.72 to 506 (assuming, naturally, a finish above 506). In the next iteration, I would look to capture the move from 506 up, and so on, all the way until my short call was at-the-money or out-of-the-money, depending on what I was trying to do with the setup.
AMEX:SPYLong
by NaughtyPines
Whale Alert! Transactions Dynamics, 2025 Bull-Market, Patience &Before the US Presidential elections, all the whale transactions within the Cryptocurrency market had bearish connotations. I was seeing large amounts of Crypto, mainly Bitcoin and Ether, being transferred across exchanges. It is said that when large amounts of Crypto is transferred, it is in order to sell and thus have bearish connotations. This dynamic was on for a while. After the elections, things changed. First, Tether Treasury minted 1Billion and then it did it again, today. Large amounts of USDT and USDC started to move across whale accounts and exchanges, this tend to be seen as bullish and has bullish connotations. Even now large amounts of stable coins is entering the exchanges and large amounts of Crypto (BTC, ETH and others) is leaving exchanges, the dynamics changed. But, compared to past market cycles, the bearish transactions are also present in-between the bullish ones and we see more and more ancient (satoshi-era) Bitcoin wallets waking up. So we are seeing a mix of bearish and bullish transactions being executed by the whales. The general sense I am getting from these transactions is that something big is about to develop and it ain't a new ATH. A new All-Time High has been hit already on Bitcoin, let's see what we get next. The war has been cancelled and this is awesome, but it seems that a major market flush has not been cancelled, let's consider the TOTAL chart next. First, super high volume for the bulls 6-November. Then a third strong lower high in a row. The volume is super high but lower than 5-August and lower than 6-March. (Bearish.) TOTAL Cryptocurrency continues to point down. The action we are seeing across Bitcoin is extraordinary and is not reflecting on the rest of the market, it seems it will soon end. I was considering a different scenario, what if the Altcoins are just behind and will soon breakout? As some are doing and already did; but, I continue to look at hundreds of charts and they are pointing lower, the bounce (pull-back) is over and next, down we go! Imagine/think/feel/listen, if we are about to experience the biggest bull-market ever in 2025, when will the correction take place? 1) Will the market rally straight up for 3 more months and end in March 2025? 2) Or will the market correct to set the stage to grow for more than 12 months straight? I am going with #2. Bull-market year tends to be bull-market year; growth, growth, growth. For sustained growth to be possible, it tends to start out of a market low. After three months of growth, a correction is due regardless of the short-term, mid-term or long-term, the market moves in waves. We are due for a correction, and we will be 100% bullish at the next support focused on the long-term. Now, there are different pairs and different charts; some are trading low already and these can be bought. Those trading high and at resistance, should be approached with caution because people are really smart. Only beginners would buy at the top, and the majority of the players approaching the market now have some experience and this will do what is right to win in the long-term. The beginners buying at the top, these are the ones that will have to go through the first lesson, they will have to wait just like we had to wait when we started trading back in those days. We noticed the market because of the new All-Time High. We buy in expecting forever growth (March 2024, November 2021, December 2017, 2014), but instead of growth, the market enters a major correction and we learn the first and most basic lesson, you can never buy at the top. Patience is key. The market is not going away. If we are bullish for the whole of 2025, there is plenty of time to buy and trade. This is not financial advice. Your support is appreciated. You are reading Alan Santana. Namaste.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALShort
by AlanSantana
1
Darvas Box Strategy - Break out Stock - Swing TradeDisclaimer: I am Not SEBI Registered adviser, please take advise from your financial adviser before investing in any stocks. Idea here shared is for education purpose only. Stock has given break out. Buy above high. Keep this stock in watch list. Buy above the High and do not forget to keep stop loss, best suitable for swing trading. Target and Stop loss Shown on Chart. Risk to Reward Ratio/ Target Ratio 1:2 Stop loss can be Trail when it make new box / Swing. Be Discipline, because discipline is the key to Success in Stock Market. Trade what you See Not what you Think.
NSE:WELCORP
by AnsariTV
Debunking Myths: Understanding the True Potential of the Solana Solana (SOL), the high-performance blockchain platform, has recently made significant strides, breaking through the $200 barrier and surging nearly 9%. This remarkable surge has not only captivated the crypto community but has also ignited renewed interest in the Solana ecosystem and its native tokens. As Bitcoin approaches a new all-time high, the future of SOL-based tokens appears promising. The Solana Surge: A Closer Look Solana's recent price surge can be attributed to several factors: • Enhanced Network Performance: Solana has consistently improved its network performance, addressing scalability issues that have plagued other blockchains. This has led to increased adoption and usage, particularly in the decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible token (NFT) sectors. • Growing DeFi Ecosystem: Solana's DeFi ecosystem has experienced exponential growth, with a diverse range of protocols and applications emerging. This expanding ecosystem has attracted a significant number of users and developers, contributing to the increased demand for SOL tokens. • Positive Market Sentiment: The overall positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency market, fueled by Bitcoin's potential to reach a new all-time high, has also benefited Solana. As investors seek alternative investment opportunities, Solana's strong fundamentals and growth potential have made it an attractive choice. The Future of SOL-Based Tokens The surge in Solana's price has had a positive impact on the performance of various SOL-based tokens. These tokens, which represent a diverse range of projects and applications built on the Solana blockchain, have seen increased adoption and value appreciation. Key SOL-Based Tokens to Watch: • Serum (SRM): A decentralized exchange (DEX) built on Solana, Serum has gained significant traction due to its fast transaction speeds and low fees. As the DeFi ecosystem on Solana continues to expand, Serum is well-positioned to benefit from increased trading volume and user adoption. • Raydium (RAY): Another popular DEX on Solana, Raydium offers liquidity pools, automated market makers, and yield farming opportunities. As the demand for decentralized trading platforms grows, Raydium's innovative features and strong community support could drive its token price higher. • STEPN (GMT): A move-to-earn fitness app built on Solana, STEPN has gained immense popularity, particularly in Asia. As users earn rewards for physical activity, the demand for GMT tokens, which are essential for in-app purchases and upgrades, is likely to increase. • Orca (ORCA): A decentralized exchange and liquidity aggregator on Solana, Orca provides users with access to a wide range of trading pairs and liquidity pools. As the Solana ecosystem matures, Orca's role as a key player in the DeFi space could drive the demand for ORCA tokens. • Potential Challenges and Risks While the future of Solana and its ecosystem appears promising, it is essential to acknowledge potential challenges and risks: • Network Congestion: As the number of users and transactions on the Solana network increases, there is a risk of network congestion, which could lead to slower transaction times and higher fees. • Regulatory Uncertainty: The regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies remains uncertain, and any unfavorable regulatory developments could negatively impact the price of SOL and SOL-based tokens. • Market Volatility: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and sudden price swings can occur without warning. Investors should be prepared for potential price fluctuations. Conclusion Solana's recent price surge and the growing popularity of SOL-based tokens are indicative of the increasing adoption and potential of the Solana ecosystem. As the blockchain industry continues to evolve, Solana's strong fundamentals, innovative projects, and supportive community position it as a leading player in the space. However, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before investing in Solana or any other cryptocurrency.
Long
by bryandowningqln
Trade Review - UPST Added UPST to the watchlist on October 27 due to a bullish continuation pattern on the daily chart. A quick look at the higher timeframe showed that the price was near the upper extreme of its range, with an earnings report date approaching as a precaution. I closed the position within the measured move range (based on the assumption that the stock would maintain a similar range and volatility). However, expect that events or shifts in market behavior can move prices short of / outside this projection. Trade Overview • Structure: Bullish Continuation (D) / Range (W) • Position: Near Mean (D) / Inside Range (W) • Entry Trigger: Failed Breakdown (BIR) at EOD Entry Details • Entry Price: 50.26 • Stop Price: 45.41 (1.7 ATR) • Target Price: 72.24 • Expected Risk/Reward: 4.55 R Exit Strategy • Exit Price: Closed 80% at 1R and rest into 72.24. Precaution into ER.
NASDAQ:UPSTLong
by Market-Core
Gold's Game: Bouncing Back from Key LevelsLet’s talk about Gold for a sec. I mentioned before that this level would be attractive for Gold because there’s liquidity and a local minimum that traders all over the world are eyeing and will be trading around. And that’s pretty much what happened. But then Gold dipped lower and 'knocked' on another level of accumulated liquidity—what some folks call the 'triangle,' or whatever works for you. It knocked and then bounced back up, leaving those bears who got stuck in short positions in a bit of a tough spot. So, bottom line, the sentiment is bullish for now, but it’s more like a 'borderline' bullish vibe, to be honest..
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by ClashChartsTeam
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone, Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community! As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such. One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as: a) It is not inflation adjusted, b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time, c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range. You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as: a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years, b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model, c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down. So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data? Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances. To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history. Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%. Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%. How about normal, bull market years? To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode. First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain. Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%! Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close! So what does this tell us? Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years: Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now! The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following: The mode is 15% and the median is 24%. So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it. Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years. However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64. I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell: SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%. SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%. SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY: Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15 Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67. One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible? This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by Steversteves
2
buy 153 oxy and sell 100 xle or 1530 long oxy 1000 short xlei expect oxy to outperform xle i made my own ratio based on my own proprietary means of making a ratio that i thought worked. you pay 215 a year in dividends on 100 xle minues the oxy gains of 85 you pay 2100 a year in xle dividends on 1000 xle minus the oxy dividend gain of 850 per year this trade is very near its all time low. i expect the trade to work out and i will exit half when the trade gets to zero netting 500 on 50 units and netting 5k on 500 units the second 50 units i would run until about +1000 and exit this would net 20 x50= 1000 so total gain would be 500 plus 1000 or 1500 on 1000 units this would net $ 15,000 i am putting this trade on tomorrow is my mathe corect?
NYSE:OXY
by cutlossking
2
$ARKK caught a #Whale in $55C 1/17/2024 (Profit Target @ $69)5,000 Open Interest on this contract until this morning when we found a whale/institution buying up probably 10k 55C contracts for Jan 17... This is a HIGH RISK HIGH REWARD PLAY given the holdings in AMEX:ARKK , but something tells me it can get to MONKEY ie $69 , and some whale or some bank also believes the juice could be worth the squeeze on this former high flyer... Past All Time Highs at $158 ... $53 now = Buy Low? - Probabilities_R_Us
AMEX:ARKKLong
by Prophecies_R_Us
Opening (IRA): TAN Jan 17th 33 Short Put... for a 1.01 credit. Comments: Adding to my TAN position at a strike/break even better than what I currently have on. Here, going Plain Jane short put, since there isn't a great advantage to going monied covered call here because the IV skew isn't between the call and put sides isn't significant. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 31.99 Max Profit: 1.01 ROC at Max: 3.16% 50% Max: .52 ROC at 50% Max: 1.58% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
AMEX:TANLong
by NaughtyPines
ELLKTOR’s Strategic Share Buyback: Boosting ConfidenceELLKTOR’s Strategic Share Buyback: Boosting Confidence in Long-Term Value ELLKTOR has recently taken a decisive step to support its stock, highlighting transparency and reliability. On November 7, 2024, the company purchased 20,000 shares at €1.7222 each, for a total transaction of €34,443.24. This strategic move brings its total share buyback to 40,000 shares, accounting for 0.011% of its total share capital. Demonstrating Confidence in Underlying Value The decision underscores management’s belief that the stock is trading well below its intrinsic value, reinforcing ELLKTOR’s image as a company that understands its potential and invests in its growth. This action aims to inspire confidence among shareholders and the broader market. Approval and Execution This share buyback program was approved during the Annual General Meeting on June 22, 2023, and ratified by the Board of Directors on September 14, 2023. The transaction was executed through Optima Bank S.A., one of ELLKTOR’s trusted financial partners. Valuation Insights ELLKTOR’s assets reflect an attractive valuation of approximately €1.2 billion, suggesting a significant underestimation of its market price. The company boasts cash reserves of €700 million, providing a robust foundation for future growth and financial stability. Additionally, Elector, under the Vardinogiannis family’s control, is valued at €200 million, while concessions like Moreas, the Rio-Antirrio Bridge, Olympia Odos, and Aegean Motorways exceed €200 million in total value. The company is set to receive €80 million from Attiki Odos, with another €80 million pending from the sale of Aktor. These inflows bolster ELLKTOR’s already solid financial position, emphasizing its substantial intrinsic value. Stock Performance: A Potential Investment Opportunity Despite these favorable indicators, ELLKTOR’s stock remains heavily discounted. This misalignment between its market price and true value presents an intriguing investment opportunity. The company’s strategic buyback demonstrates its confidence in future growth, signaling to investors that the current stock price may not reflect its genuine potential. Shareholder Dynamics and Market Impact A key reason for ELLKTOR’s exclusion from MSCI indices is the limited stock float due to significant shareholder concentration. Notably, Dutch company REGGEBORGH INVEST B.V. holds 48.155% (167,672,350 shares), MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) S.A. holds 26.882% (93,600,000 shares), and Atlas NV owns 9.798% (34,114,860 shares), leaving only 15.165% in the hands of smaller investors. Even with its MSCI removal, these major shareholders continue to show strong strategic commitment. This backing could support future stock price movements, especially as market distortions eventually correct themselves. Looking Ahead With the release of nine-month financial results on the horizon, analysts and investors will gain a clearer picture of ELLKTOR’s financial performance and potential. The expectation is that the stock will begin to reflect its true value, drawing the investor attention it warrants. ELLKTOR’s strategic buyback is more than just a corporate maneuver; it’s a testament to the company’s unwavering belief in its future and intrinsic value. As the market recalibrates to recognize these strengths, ELLKTOR stands poised for potential upward momentum, making it an intriguing option for value-focused investors.
ATHEX:ELLAKTORLong
by kgougakis
Opening (IRA): TQQQ August 16th 73 Monied Covered Call... for a 70.80 debit. Comments: High IV at 55%. Buying a one lot and selling a -75 call against in the August 16th monthly to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. I looked at doing something in the 45 DTE wheelhouse, which would be the August 30th expiry, but it was less liquid than the monthly, so opted to go shorter duration, with the plan being to roll out to the September monthly should we get further weakness and/or a test of 73. Otherwise, I'll look to just take profit at my standard 50% max. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 70.80 Max Profit: 2.20 ROC at Max: 3.11% 50% Max: 1.10 ROC at 50% Max: 1.55%
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by NaughtyPines
SOL/TetherUS _ Quarter 4 (2024) + Q2(2025) _ Distribution _ PricSOL/TetherUS _ Quarter 4 (2024) + Q2(2025) _ Distribution _ Prices _ Under _ Trading _ Venue _ Binance. Note: USDT (Not USD) as rate are not the same! Numbers remain the same as previous publication = 100% accuracy! I hate 99.99 sometime! I will now tidy up the Quarter 3 area and cover the drop! $153.35 will be the drop after $196 range! ______________________ Previous Distribution prices (Happened) $154.46 $158.15 $160.46 $167.48 ____________ $173.11 ( Happened) $177.03 $177.06 $179.67 $186.85 _____________ $187.05 $192.07 $196.68 _____________ $203.53 $217.95 $241.57 $254.87 $258.61 __________ $286.96 $312.35 $344.48
Short
by Skill-Knowledge-Conduct
XAUUSD - BUY Panic over Looks Like NY is Buying they do on a Friday especially. With Elon on Trump's advisory panel America may have a chance that is good. Inflation is still the main thorn in the side of everyone especially investors I would Suggest. Interest rates ticking down step by step so interest rates-Bonds are not as attractive as they were so might as well Buy Gold, especially in inflationary times and has there been much talk about inflation over the last couple of years ??? Oh yer so there has. Trump will be spending hard out he loves spending so Inflation again = Nightmare. He was one of the the primary causes of all this inflation the world has seen since the so called Pandemic (lol) and giving out Excessive Stimulus Cheques to everyone and his dog, far more than anyone needed. So they will remember and also dive back into the Stock Market. All Trump ever wanted was for people to remember how much the stock market rallied while he was Presidento and bugger the consequences, not surprising for such a vain man, but it has worked in his favour with the majority of the people voting him back in. So all looks good for all assets I would say without a doubt he will find away to make everything go up regardless mark my words.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NZ_Shareman