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Beyond Technical Analysis

Need to Show You Something...... every time the Bank of Japan raised interest rates the indexes have taken a fall ...in video I show every BOJ rate hike since the early 2000's along with indexes at the durations ... there are three spots: ... 2000-2001 ... 2006-2010 ... 2024-Present ... BOJ recently upped their interest rate from 0.25 to 0.50 Lets see what happens this year. Also remember that bonds have recently entered a 20-30 year cycle. Certain industries will thrive here.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by NebulousMercuria
RSKD Stock Analysis: Potential Growth on the HorizonRiskified Ltd. (NYSE: RSKD), a leader in e-commerce fraud prevention, has been making waves recently, with its stock showing renewed interest among traders and investors. Trading at $5.25 as of January 25, 2025, the stock has demonstrated moderate volatility, with a 52-week range of $4.14 to $6.65. While analysts maintain a "Hold" consensus, recent developments and market optimism suggest potential growth for RSKD, supported by strategic partnerships and expanding product offerings. Prediction for Growth Based on market dynamics and Riskified’s strong fundamentals, I predict the stock could reach $7.47 by August 22, 2025. This represents a significant potential upside, driven by: Innovation and Partnerships: Collaborations like the recent partnership with Appriss Retail could enhance customer adoption and revenue growth. E-commerce Expansion: With global e-commerce continuing to grow, Riskified is well-positioned to capitalize on increasing demand for fraud prevention solutions. Key Technical and Fundamental Insights Short-Term Resistance: $6.00 Support Levels: $5.00 and $4.50 Volume Trends: Recent trading indicates increasing interest, potentially signaling accumulation. Final Thoughts RSKD stock appears poised for growth in 2025, particularly if it continues to expand its market share and maintain strong performance metrics. Investors seeking exposure to the e-commerce sector may find this an opportune time to consider RSKD, while traders should keep an eye on key price levels and upcoming earnings reports for confirmation of bullish momentum.
NYSE:RSKDLong
by SHOOZCOIN
$TRUMP: if you have not sold yet, you are late.$TRUMP won’t last forever—mark my words. Of course, things could change if someone injects billions to prop it up, but that seems unlikely. Here’s a quick reality check: - Trump is a politician, not your buddy. - "Make America Great Again" really means "Make the U.S. Dollar Great Again"—don’t get fooled. - Vampires crave blood, and politicians crave money—you’re not on their team. They’ll rug you with a smile, and you’ll still come back for more. Why? Because deep down, you want to believe you're not like them, right? Take your profits and invest in meaningful projects—ones that pay people, drive research and development, and build the future of this incredible industry. Don’t waste your energy on hype.
Short
by CryptoNikkoid
16
Bitcoin midterm and short term BEARISH,Increasing VolatilityI am currently bearish again in BTCUSD. After hitting all time high in December 2025 as expected BTCUSD was not able anymore to increase gains. THE LONG TERM TREND IS BULLISH; BUT MID AND SHORT TERM TREND bearish. Above 100.582 although it seems that bulls gain power, the bears attack fast and successfully the bulls. (orange area). In the chart you see how I dvided the prices into two categories(red+green areas) OR WHERE BULLS (green) and bears(red) have control. AT 100K;9560 specially volatility increases fast, a sign that these areas are fought by both powers. In these ares mayn false signals and false breakouts on both sides are possible.(fire) A drop below 90560 leads BTC to 81229,73k and 68,7K Below that area we will face a choppy but volatile market. The increaisng of volatility gains power of news,(also fake news), sudden catalysts.So be aware specially in those areas. The long term POC(Magnet sysmbol) is located at 49559 now.That is very important as these locations are very big magnets and attracting the price. In between we have very dangerouse gap that is also attracting BTCUSD price.(see the Chart) Here some important new of the last days and my interpretation that align with my bearish signal: Republicans will still have to deal with the debt ceiling in 2025....(the news and Interpretation how it will affect financial markets and crypto in 2025) Although President-elect Donald Trump wanted to start 2025 without having to worry about the debt ceiling, he did not get his wish. Addressing the debt ceiling, which will be reinstated on January 2, is still on the list of congressional Republicans’ New Year’s resolutions. The House last week fell far short of passing a two-year extension of the suspension of the limit as part of a GOP-led government spending bill. 👉M y Interpretation: Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general: The news regarding the U.S. debt ceiling highlights a potential risk to financial markets and the broader economy in 2025. Here’s how it could impact Bitcoin and the markets in general: Key Points from the News Debt Ceiling Reinstatement The U.S. debt ceiling will be reinstated on January 2, 2025, and congressional Republicans are expected to address it. A debt ceiling crisis can cause political and economic uncertainty, especially if there is a failure to raise or suspend the ceiling. Government Spending Package Last week, Congress passed a government funding bill that did not address the debt ceiling, disappointing President-elect Donald Trump’s wishes to resolve the issue sooner. Potential Market Impact Debt ceiling crises in the past have led to market volatility, particularly in equities, as investors react to the uncertainty and the potential for a government shutdown or a default on U.S. debt obligations. Implications for Bitcoin and Markets Increased Risk and Volatility Debt ceiling concerns often create broader market anxiety, especially in traditional markets. Bitcoin, being seen as a "safe-haven" asset by some investors, could experience increased interest if there are fears of U.S. financial instability, a default, or a downgrade of U.S. credit. Demand for Alternative Assets During periods of heightened economic uncertainty or risk of financial crisis, assets like Bitcoin and gold are often viewed as alternative stores of value. Investors may seek refuge in these assets, increasing demand and possibly providing upward pressure on Bitcoin prices. Risk of U.S. Dollar Volatility Dollar volatility due to the debt ceiling issue could also lead to heightened interest in Bitcoin. A weakened dollar could boost Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, pushing prices higher. Conversely, if the U.S. government resolves the debt ceiling issue efficiently, the pressure on Bitcoin may ease, and its price may fall. Market Sentiment and Speculation Given Bitcoin's speculative nature, market participants may react strongly to news surrounding the debt ceiling. Speculative trading could amplify price swings, especially as investors price in possible outcomes of the debt ceiling debate. How This Affects Your Bitcoin Position Potential for Volatility(Fire symbol in the chart) If the debt ceiling issue creates a crisis, Bitcoin could see increased demand as a safe-haven asset, potentially driving prices higher in the short term. However, if the situation stabilizes without a major crisis, the demand might subside, and Bitcoin’s price could stabilize or decline. Key Resistance and Support Watch for key levels around the current Bitcoin price (e.g., $93K-$95K). If the debt ceiling crisis intensifies, these levels could be breached in either direction depending on market sentiment. $90K and $85K remain critical support zones if the bearish trend continues. Monitor Global Sentiment Keep an eye on broader market sentiment, especially around U.S. debt ceiling developments and their effects on traditional financial markets. If broader markets experience a sell-off due to debt ceiling issues, Bitcoin could initially benefit from a flight to alternative assets. Conclusion The debt ceiling issue is a significant risk factor that could cause increased volatility in both traditional financial markets and Bitcoin. Given Bitcoin’s reputation as a hedge against uncertainty, the news could lead to short-term price increases if investors flock to it as a safe-haven asset. However, it’s essential to monitor how the U.S. government addresses the issue and the overall market sentiment. Continue to manage risk carefully, as the situation may evolve quickly. Bitcoin’s ‘Kimchi Premium’ Jumps Amid South Korean Political Turmoil (this news+ 👉I nterpretation) “Kimchi Premium,” which refers to the price gap between Bitcoin on South Korean exchange Upbit compared to Coinbase, has surged to the range of 3-5% this week, according to data compiled by blockchain data platform CryptoQuant. An increase in the metric usually indicates an elevated demand from South Korea-based investors in Bitcoin. The same metric for stablecoin Tether also has surged to the similar range. “South Korea faces an unprecedented wealth outflow amid political turmoil, declining birth rates, and slowing growth,” said Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant. “Inflation fears drive conversions of won assets into US stocks, Bitcoin, gold, and dollars. Many crypto investors prefer exchanges over banks, with Tether and Bitcoin trading at 2-5% premiums. 👉I nterpretation: This news about Bitcoin’s "Kimchi Premium" highlights the dynamics of South Korea's crypto market amid political and economic turmoil. Let’s break it down in the context of trading approach and bearish signal: Key Insights from the News Kimchi Premium Surge (3-5%) The "Kimchi Premium" reflects the higher price of Bitcoin on South Korean exchanges compared to global exchanges like Coinbase. A 3-5% premium signals elevated demand from South Korean retail investors. This surge suggests strong local buying interest, likely driven by uncertainty in traditional markets and the weakening South Korean won. Inflation Concerns and Asset Diversification Wealth outflows and inflation fears are pushing South Korean investors to move their capital into alternative assets, including Bitcoin, Tether, US stocks, and gold. A preference for crypto exchanges over banks adds to the demand, with Bitcoin and Tether trading at a premium. Political Turmoil President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration, impeachment, and the ongoing crisis have destabilized financial markets. The uncertainty adds to investor anxiety, further increasing the demand for alternative assets. Retail-Driven Market South Korea’s crypto market is predominantly retail-driven due to restrictions on corporate accounts. This means that market sentiment and speculative activity significantly influence prices. Weakened South Korean Won The won's decline against the US dollar (0.35%) adds to the appeal of USD-denominated assets like Bitcoin and Tether. This could sustain or even expand the premium. Implications for Bitcoin's Price Short-Term Buying Pressure in South Korea The Kimchi Premium surge indicates localized demand but doesn’t necessarily mean a global price rally. The premium reflects South Korea’s retail enthusiasm, not broader market strength. Impact of Retail Speculation Retail-driven buying can create short-term upward momentum but often lacks the sustainability of institutional-driven demand. If global macro factors or technical resistance levels remain bearish, the local demand may not prevent further declines. Risk of a Bubble or Sudden Sell-Off A rising premium can sometimes signal excessive speculation. If South Korean retail investors begin unwinding positions, it could lead to a sharp local correction, adding selling pressure to global markets. How This Aligns with Your Bearish Signal Localized vs. Global Trends While the Kimchi Premium shows localized buying pressure, your bearish signal likely reflects global market trends. Bitcoin’s recent drop from $104K to $93K aligns with broader market dynamics and not just South Korea-specific activity. Watch for Technical Reactions If Bitcoin approaches key support levels (e.g., $90K), South Korean demand could provide temporary relief. However, a failure to hold support might invalidate local demand as a bullish factor. Evaluate Reversals Cautiously Even with rising demand in South Korea, monitor if the global bearish trend shows signs of reversal (e.g., higher lows, breaking key resistance levels like $95K-$100K). Until then, stick with your bearish outlook. Key Levels and Trading Strategy Support Zones Key levels to watch: $90K and $85K. A break below these could signal further downside, regardless of localized buying interest. Resistance to Watch If Bitcoin rebounds, resistance at $95K-$100K will be crucial to determine whether the bearish trend is weakening. Potential for False Breakouts South Korea-driven price spikes might create false breakouts. Ensure your technical signals confirm any potential reversal before adjusting your strategy. Bottom Line The surge in the Kimchi Premium reflects localized demand due to South Korea’s political and economic instability. However, this does not necessarily negate the global bearish trend you've been following. Continue monitoring global signals, support/resistance levels, and whether the localized buying pressure can translate into broader market strength. Stay disciplined and adapt your strategy based on technical confirmations rather than isolated news events. News2 Why Bitcoin (Still) Likely Has Not Reached a Cycle Top Yet Over a longer-term horizon though, there are plenty of indicators that suggest we may still be a way, in both time and price, from a cycle top in Bitcoin. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, which compares the current price to the aggregate cost paid for all outstanding Bitcoin, has moved up from the < 1 level that has historically marked bear market bottoms in early 2023 to roughly 3 as of late December 2024. 👉I nterpretation Let's break down this news in the context of your bearish signal on Bitcoin and how it could influence the current market dynamics: Key Insights from the News MVRV Z-Score at ~3 The MVRV Z-Score is used to assess whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical patterns. Historically, cycle tops occur when this metric moves significantly higher, often near 7. At a Z-Score of 3, the news implies that Bitcoin is still below levels historically associated with a cycle top. This suggests there could still be room for upward movement in the longer term. Long-Term Holder (HODLer) Supply Decline A 7% drop in the proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year indicates increased selling pressure from long-term holders. This release of 1.4M BTC into the market adds to the supply, creating potential headwinds for price growth. Despite this, the news points out that cycle tops typically occur when this indicator drops further, suggesting we haven’t yet reached that point. ETF Inflows and Market Offset While long-term holders have been selling, some of this supply pressure has been absorbed by large ETF inflows. However, this balancing act might not sustain the price if selling accelerates. Uncertainty in Historical Patterns The article emphasizes that Bitcoin’s historical cycles may not repeat exactly due to limited data. This means that while historical indicators suggest the cycle top isn’t yet reached, the current cycle could deviate. Implications for Your Bearish Signal Short-Term Downtrend The bearish signal you received two weeks ago aligns with the current price drop from 104K to 93K. This selling pressure might be attributed to long-term holders liquidating part of their positions, as the news mentions. Medium- to Long-Term Outlook Despite the short-term bearish action, the MVRV Z-Score and HODLer supply suggest the cycle top may still be ahead. This means the current drop might be part of a broader consolidation or retracement before another rally. ETF Inflows as a Buffer While long-term holders selling adds pressure, ETF inflows could stabilize the market. Watch for news about ETF approvals, inflows, or rejections, as these could heavily influence Bitcoin’s next move. How to Align with Technical Analysis Short-Term Action Stick with your bearish signal for now, as the price trend supports it. If Bitcoin continues to fall or fails to hold key support levels (e.g., $90K), the bearish trend could intensify. Monitor Key Levels Watch for significant support zones (e.g., $90K or $85K). A break below these levels could validate further downside. On the flip side, if Bitcoin starts consolidating and moves back above $95K or $100K, it may signal a potential reversal. Use Leading Indicators Keep an eye on the MVRV Z-Score, HODLer behavior, and ETF news. A change in these metrics could signal whether the bearish momentum is temporary or part of a broader trend. Bottom Line The news indicates that the current bearish trend might be a retracement within a larger bull market. However, in the short term, supply pressure from long-term holders and bearish technical signals could continue to drive prices lower. Stay cautious, manage risk, and monitor both the technical levels and fundamental indicators closely. This combination will help you navigate the market effectively.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by DaveBrascoFX
1
Interpretation of support and resistance points and Fib ratios Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- There was a change in the chart while I was writing the idea. Therefore, please refer to the chart attached below. ------------------------------------------------- (TRUMPUSDT.P 1D chart) Since the chart was created not long ago, it is practically impossible to analyze it. However, I will take the time to explain it as an extension of the explanation of Fibonacci ratios. - (1D chart) You can check the retracement ratio using the Fibonacci retracement tool on the 1D chart. (30m chart) You can check the Fibonacci ratio on the 30m chart and analyze the chart. However, I think the Fibonacci ratio is a chart tool for chart analysis, so in order to trade, you need to draw support and resistance points by the arrangement of candles. As I mentioned earlier, since the chart is created not long ago, you can select support and resistance points on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, so even if you draw support and resistance lines, their role is likely to be weak. Therefore, I think it is better to trade these coins (tokens) in short-term transactions such as scalping or day trading. If the trading period is long, the psychological burden is likely to increase, which can lead to incorrect trading. - The HA-MS indicator was activated to indicate support and resistance points. If you activate the Fibonacci ratio drawn on the 1D chart, it is as follows. You can see that the maximum range we can trade is 28.0-70.654. If we go outside this range, a new wave will be created, so new support and resistance points are needed. At this time, a chart tool that can help interpret the chart is the Trend-Based Fib Extension. - Since the HA-Low indicator was formed at the 40.245 point, we can see that the low point has been formed. Therefore, if it shows support near the HA-Low indicator, it is a time to buy (LONG). Since it has currently fallen below the HA-Low indicator, it is highly likely that it will update the latest low, so it was possible to enter a sell (SHORT) position when it fell from the HA-Low indicator. As the price falls, I think it is better not to make a new transaction until the HA-Low indicator is newly created or the existing HA-Low indicator rises and shows support. If it is supported by the HA-Low indicator and rises, - 46.618 - 63.882-70654 You should check for support in the above section. If it is not supported, it is a time to sell in parts. In my chart, the MS-Signal indicator is an important indicator in terms of trend. Therefore, in order to turn into an uptrend, the price must be maintained above the MS-Signal indicator. - (12h chart) The current chart is so new that it is virtually impossible to see the trend. If you want to draw with the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool, the largest time frame chart you can draw is the 12h chart. The point where the finger points is the selection point. (30m chart) The chart above is drawn with the Trend-Based Fib Extension tool. The circles marked on the far right correspond to important support and resistance zones. When interpreting Fibonacci ratios, the 0, 0.5, 0.618, and 1 ratios can be interpreted as key ratios. Therefore, if it falls below 1, it may fall to around 1.618 (2.198), so caution is required when trading. The 0.618 (35.663) ~ 0.5 (39.612) section can be interpreted as an important support and resistance section. Since the HA-Low indicator is formed within this section, it can be interpreted that the role of support and resistance is emphasized. Even if the Fibonacci ratio is drawn in this way, it can be helpful in setting the timing of trading only when it is interpreted in accordance with the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. Otherwise, it is likely that your subjective thoughts will be included and the transaction will proceed in the wrong direction. - The support and resistance points must be drawn by looking at the arrangement of candles on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts to be activated as support and resistance points. The support and resistance points drawn on the time frame chart below may have a weak role, so caution is required when trading. In that sense, I hope you understand the content of this idea as how to comprehensively interpret the Fibonacci ratio and support and resistance points. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
by readCrypto
From Quake 3 Rocket Jumps to Tesla Dumps: Why $406 Is Headed forGather ’round, folks—let this boomer dust off his old mechanical keyboard and crack open a fresh Monster Energy drink before giving you the lowdown on Tesla’s stock. Yes, I’m talking about Tesla, which is currently revving around $406 a share, but mark my words: it’s about to drop so hard you’ll think a rocket jump in Quake 3 just went catastrophically wrong. I predict this baby’s going down to $240—and don’t bother putting on your Fortnite skin or doing a goofy dance, because I’ve already seen the future, and it ain’t pretty. Now, before you kids start panicking, let me remind you of one crucial fact: I knew Elon Musk back when he was just a scrawny kid messing around with Quake 3. Oh, that’s right. The man might be a billionaire now, but he used to get absolutely clobbered in the arena by yours truly. I still remember how he’d bring me diamonds every time I rocket-jumped over his sorry plasma-shooting behind. It’s partly how he got into all that diamond business in the first place—dude had to keep paying me tribute after every round he lost. Fast-forward to today, and Tesla’s in an eerily similar situation to those old Quake 3 matches. Just like a naive newbie thinks he can spam the rocket launcher without consequences, Tesla keeps hovering at nosebleed valuations, which sooner or later come crashing down. I’m telling you, $406 is about to turn into $240, and here’s why: first, Tesla’s hogging the spotlight like a kid who won’t stop flossing in Fortnite, and you know how the market loves to kill hype when the mania goes too far. Second, I’ve lived long enough (while polishing my Quake 3 trophies and pounding Monsters) to see that what goes up fast in the market must eventually come back down to earth—especially when investors get fatigued. Third, just like Quake 3 once faced an onslaught of competitors, Tesla’s got rivals cropping up everywhere, all gunning for a piece of the EV throne. So, take it from this boomer: you might see all the fancy headlines and kids dancing around like they’re in Fortnite, but the real shot-callers are the ones who’ve been through the trenches—ones who used to humiliate Elon Musk in Quake 3, no less (and yes, I’ll keep reminding you of that, because I earned those bragging rights). When I say Tesla’s going down to $240, you better believe I’m calling it like a rocket shot across Blood Run. And if you happen to run into Musk, do me a favor: tell him I’m still holding onto some of those diamonds he gave me after our last match. After all, a boomer’s got to have his trophies. Remember, this is not Fortnite—this is real life, and in real life, gravity always wins. #tesla #quake3 #monsterenergy #boomerpower #musk #shortyourself #bletnahuy #polandkurva #japan #freemoon #investadvice #supersmartanalysis #notgaylikeyou
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by UnitedFreedomJapan
M-Signal indicator is starting to converge Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please click "Boost" as well. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- This volatility period for ETH is expected to last until January 26. However, since the volatility period for BTC is expected to last until January 31, it is expected that it will be important to find support at some point after the volatility period until January 26. It is showing a downward trend from 3265.0-3321.30, which is an important support and resistance area for ETH. The key is whether it can quickly rise to or above 3265.0-3321.30 and maintain the price. If it falls below 3136.41, it is likely to fall near the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, so a countermeasure is needed. Therefore, during this volatility period, we need to check in which direction it deviates from the 3136.41-3321.30 range. If it is supported near 3136.41, it is expected that there will be an attempt to rise again to the 3265.0-3321.30 range. - As the downtrend progresses, the M-Signal indicators on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts have begun to converge. Therefore, it seems likely that it will diverge again after the volatility period on January 26 or January 31. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Big picture I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC. (BTCUSD 12M chart) Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015. In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market. Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025. - (LOG chart) Looking at the LOG chart, we can see that the increase is decreasing. Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective. Therefore, we do not expect to see prices below 44K-48K in the future. - The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015. That is, the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend. The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019. Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026. - No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving. It is up to you how to view and respond to it. Since there is no support or resistance point when the ATH is updated, the Fibonacci ratio can be appropriately utilized. However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous to use it as a support and resistance role. The reason is that the user must directly select the important selection points required to create the Fibonacci. Therefore, it can be useful for chart analysis because it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection point, but it can be seen as ambiguous for use in trading strategies. 1st: 44234.54 2nd: 61383.23 3rd: 89126.41 101875.70-106275.10 (when overshooting) 4th: 134018.28 151166.97-157451.83 (when overshooting) 5th: 178910.15 -----------------
by readCrypto
Long because of my algo and not this sh!tsh0w of a chartDo not adjust your eyes or screen. There are no parts of this chart missing. Either FDX management is horrifyingly poor at guidance or the analysts that follow this one are really poor at their jobs. No matter, this hopefully won't last long enough for me to worry about whoever is incompetent at their job. Full disclosure: I am not personally trading this. Not because of the freakish chart, but because I am already exposed to 3 other stocks in the shipping space and I'm already too heavily exposed. I was going to go long NYSE:GPN , but about 2 min before the close it went up a few pennies and ruined my plan. It was the difference for my algo between GO and NO. I have learned to follow it unquestioningly and hopefully that one will be a go tomorrow. So why FDX then? I screened every stock with a market cap of 2 billion and above and this one had the best track record with my algo. I only give you guys the best stuff...you're welcome. Also, earnings are in the rearview mirror at this point, which based on the chart, should be an obvious non-negotiable when trading this one. Anyway, here's the deal. Throughout the backtest history going all the way back to May of 1978, my algo paired with this exit strategy are a near perfect 1603-1 on NYSE:FDX , although that 1 is a trade from this past early December that would technically still be open. Think of all the chaotic times that covers and it turned a profit every time. The average gain per trade is 1.7% with an average holding period of 18 days. Now most of those trades closed in under a week, but some REALLY long trades during the Great Recession and others pooped in everyone else's punchbowl and ruined the average. Even with those, it has still produced an average gain per day held of .094% which is better than 2x the average daily return of SPY, historically. Oh by the way, for the chart worshippers out there, I guess you can hang your hat on the fact that it closed juuuuust above support (such that it is with a chart like this one). So IF I was trading this, per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” according to my algo, and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit. Even though I'm not trading it personally, I'll update it as if I were. 270.03 would be my initial entry price, though it traded lower after hours. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NYSE:FDXLong
by redwingcoach
The Incredible Return of MetaI always find it fascinating to study stocks that have "returned from the dead" and made comebacks no one saw coming. I'll be the first to admit this: while I get some trades right, this one I got completely wrong. I thought Meta was on its way out in so many different ways. In fact, during its most recent crash in late 2022/23, I thought the final nail in the coffin had been struck. But I was wrong. Yes, I was very wrong. It's up over 600% since that point! Looking at Meta's recent resurgence, I have to give Zuck credit where credit is due. He took bold swings, diving into AR/VR, AI, and cutting-edge technology like headsets. Something tells me there’s even more up his sleeve—possibly a phone of some kind. On a recent Joe Rogan podcast, he also had the guts to call Apple out in several distinct ways. But what’s really caught my attention is Meta’s new data center. That, perhaps, is the bigger story here. The data center. Here are some impressive stats about the massive facility Meta has agreed to build: 1. Scale: The facility will span approximately 4 million square feet, making it Meta's largest data center to date, though still smaller than Langfang, China’s 6.3 million-square-foot behemoth. 2. Compute Power: By 2025, the center is expected to deliver around 1 GW of compute capacity—the same output as a typical U.S. nuclear power plant and enough to power about 1 million homes annually. 3. GPU Count: With over 1.3 million GPUs planned, this data center will dwarf the world's fastest supercomputer, Frontier, which uses 50,000 GPUs. The facility will be designed to handle enormous AI processing demands. 4. Capital Expenditure: Meta's projected capex for 2025 is $60–$65 billion, surpassing the GDP of countries like Iceland and Estonia and more than doubling Google's 2022 capex of $31 billion. 5. Bandwidth and Connectivity: Supporting 1.3 million GPUs will require unprecedented bandwidth and innovative networking solutions, potentially exceeding 100 Tbps. I don’t plan on taking a position in Meta, but it’s certainly sparked my interest in the incredible investments happening in this space. Specifically that we are in a stock picker's market and that many companies, the ones who have survived the recent years, are emerging now as the leaders. There is a rather large basket of moves like this that continue to shape up! As I write this, I can’t help but think that more comebacks like this are on the horizon. I’ve been sharing ideas like these on my profile and have more to come. Stay tuned.
NASDAQ:META
by scheplick
2
IDEA #2 - EURUSD - SHORT BIAS (HIGHER RISK)Expecting the dollar to outperform the euro next week. As outlined, will be splitting risk across 2 positions as the overall bias has lesser confluence to it than I would usually care for. Expecting bearish imbalance (red box) from earlier today to play a role and if not, price might make a move for a higher time frame level (black line) before heading down. Recommend trimming or reducing position size at bullish imbalance (green box) outlined below. Once again, this trade idea is risker than I would normally be comfortable with and if you are entering a trade based off it I strongly advise splitting risk between both positions (0.5R each) rather than treating them as seperate trades.
Short
by Pyrinox
RSI think I'll go long on this one todayI mean c'mon...as a trader how can you not like a stock with the ticker RSI and a chart that looks like this? Especially right now when everything else is kind of a mess. As always, while I'm fond of the lovely positive slope of that regression channel (uptrend), it's all about the algo. Not a long track record is really the only knock on this one. But at 152-2 with a buy signal from the algo and this exit strategy, I'm willing to test the waters given the dearth of other decent options out there right now. RSI's average trade result is almost exactly +2.0% which is solid for this system. Plus, >2x the average SPY daily return is nothing to sneeze at either. You'd also have to go back to April to find a trade of this type that took longer than 3 days to close (12 in a row closed in 3 days or less and 75% of those were 1 day trades). Lot 1 entry price - 13.90 Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NYSE:RSILong
by redwingcoach