Beyond Technical Analysis
VOLATILITY DRAG - The Hidden ThiefThis is a super important subjective to touch on.. And that topic is Volatility Drag, also known as Percentage Loss Trap.
I believe that most traders do not consider this in their trading. They know about win-rate, risk/reward ratios, compounding, and perhaps even the fact that losing 50% of your account will require you to make 100% just to get back to break even. But few take into acccount Volatility Drag. It can be a sneaky thief, eating away at your PnL, causing you to lose money even though it seems that you are profitable.
Volatility Drag is basically the percentage loss of your account that occurs from the volatility in your wins and losses. In this video I illustrate it on a spreadsheet and graph for your understanding.
This is why slow and steady wins the race in trading. Anyone that presents you otherwise is a fool and you should absolutely stay clear of such people. One cannot have a volatile equity yet not have volatile emotions. Either that, or they have not considered the math.
Safe trading!
- R2F
Option Buying Learning Ideas!Hello, a simple trick to be successful when buying options is to wait for the candle to close. You have heard this rule many times before. In my experience, it takes time to learn it, and it takes time to implement what you have learned on the chart. But all your waiting will pay off for you.
Thanks for Reading.
Power of 3 - ICT Concept ExplainedIn this video I cover the topic of Power of 3 or otherwise known was PO3. This concept is also the same as AMD, which is Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution.
PO3 is the basis in which Smart Money approaches the market. As we have covered before, liquidity is the lifeblood of the market. To maximize efficiency for Smart Money, liquidity is engineered for the purpose of trapping uninformed money on the wrong side of the market and assuming the counter-party to their trades.
At the open of a candle, Smart Money is accumulating positions, usually in some sort of range. The next stage is the manipulation, where price makes a fast run towards liquidity, usually in the opposite direction of where price is intended to go, and then reversing rapidly.
The final stage is distribution, where Smart Money is offloading their positions above or below the marketplace depending on whether it is a buy or sell program.
The whole purpose of understanding this concept is to be able to anticipate the future direction of price, and to ideally buy below or above the open of a candle, again depending on what type of candle it is. I show how I anticipate the PO3 in this video.
- R2F
4 Stages of Price Delivery (ICT Concepts)In this video I go through the 4 stages of price delivery as it pertains to ICT Concepts.
Generally, the market is going through either of the following:
Consolidation
Expansion
Retracement
Reversal
Price starts from a consolidation, where Smart Money accumulates their position, and then an expansion, where price is trending in a direction for the purpose of seeking liquidity and/or manipulating sentiment. From an expansionary phase, price will either retrace to re-accumulate orders and expand again, or have a complete reversal.
Now, it is important to note that price is fractal, meaning the signatures you see on a lower timeframe perspective could also be seen on a higher timeframe perspective. In a singular candlestick, there can be multiple phases of price delivery happening.
Once one can fit all these pieces together in regard to how market makers book price, one can have a clear insight into where price is likely going and where it likely won't go again, all with a high degree of accuracy.
Thanks for watching and reading!
- R2F
TURN BY TURN (THAI STOCKS) w/SPECIAL GUEST SARA HOHLER Today's Show: Exploring Thai Stocks with Special Guests Moneymagnatesara & Moneymagnateaira
In today's episode, we dive into the world of Thai stocks, featuring insights from our special guests, Moneymagnatesara and Moneymagnateaira. Moneymagnatesara, a Thai/German native, shares her unique consumer perspective on various prominent companies, while Moneymagnateaira keeps us entertained with her singing and commentary. Join us as we discuss the following stocks and their market standings:
PTT Public Company Limited (PTT):
A leading energy and petrochemical company in Thailand, known for its significant role in the petroleum industry, including both upstream and downstream operations (Simply Wall St) (MarketScreener).
Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AOT):
The main operator of Thailand's airports, AOT is crucial in managing the country's aviation infrastructure and ensuring the efficiency and growth of its air travel industry.
Advanced Info Service Public Company Limited (ADVANC):
Thailand's largest mobile network operator, ADVANC provides a wide range of telecommunication services, including mobile, broadband, and digital services.
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS):
One of the largest private hospital operators in Thailand, BDMS offers comprehensive medical services and is known for its extensive network of hospitals and healthcare facilities.
Siam Commercial Bank (SCB):
As one of Thailand's oldest and largest banks, SCB offers a wide array of financial services, including personal, business, and investment banking.
We agree to have a more in-depth episode with the grown-ups in the future, but for now, enjoy this unique perspective and feel free to ask questions about Thailand to gain an edge in emerging markets.
Tune in for an engaging conversation and insights that could benefit your investment strategies in the Thai market!
EURUSD - Another Trade Analysis Using ICT ConceptsVery beautiful again today.
With the expectation of higher prices, I took a long on EURUSD. As I illustrate in the video, there were very nice algorithmic price action and sentiment manipulated. All the things I love to see in a high-probability setup.
I hope you enjoy the video and found it insightful.
- R2F
Unlock the Secrets of Gold Trading: Pericles' Ancient WisdomIn this video, we explore the profound perspectives on fear from historical figures like Pericles and modern thinkers like Ryan Holiday. Pericles, the esteemed Athenian statesman, saw fear as a natural emotion that should not paralyze us. He believed in confronting fear with courage, rational thought, and strategic planning, using it as a tool for effective decision-making.
Ryan Holiday, drawing on Stoic philosophy in his works, echoes these sentiments with stories of historical figures who turned fear into fuel for success. He recounts how John D. Rockefeller faced market crashes with calm calculation and how Theodore Roosevelt overcame health challenges by embracing adversity.
Both Pericles and Holiday teach us that fear, when managed correctly, can become a powerful ally. By acknowledging fear, confronting it with rationality and courage, and using it to sharpen our focus and strategy, we can transform challenges into opportunities for growth and success. This approach is especially relevant in the realm of trading, where mastering fear can lead to better decision-making and greater resilience.
Key Levels and Patterns:
Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL):
The chart shows a series of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), indicating an overall uptrend. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is still in play.
Ascending Channel:
There is a well-defined ascending channel where the price has been moving upwards within parallel trendlines. This channel can act as a guide for potential support and resistance levels.
Reversal Points (LQZ):
1-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: Located at 2,429.190. This level is a potential area where price may reverse or find support.
4-Hour LQZ / Reversal Point: Located at 2,391.394. This level also serves as a significant support zone.
Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP 1: 2,319.385
TP 2: 2,288.085
TP 3: 2,265.369
Recent Price Action:
The price recently reached a higher high at around 2,458.755 and then pulled back slightly, indicating a potential short-term correction within the overall uptrend.
The ascending channel suggests that if the price remains above the lower boundary of the channel, the uptrend is likely to continue.
If the price breaks below the 1-hour LQZ / Reversal Point at 2,429.190, it could test the 4-hour LQZ / Reversal Point at 2,391.394. A further breakdown below this level might lead to the next support at TP 1.
Analysis Summary:
Bullish Scenario: The price could bounce from the current levels or the lower boundary of the ascending channel, aiming for new highs. Traders might look for buying opportunities near the support levels of the channel and reversal points.
Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below the identified reversal points and the ascending channel, it might signal a deeper correction, potentially heading towards the TP levels for possible buying opportunities at lower prices.
By applying Pericles' wisdom of confronting fear with rationality and Ryan Holiday's insights on turning fear into strategic advantage, traders can approach these levels with a clear, disciplined mindset, making informed decisions even in volatile market conditions.
Trump / Rates / Dollars / Coins, OH MY!Interest Rates and the Dollar
Interest rates, set by central banks, are a critical component of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States uses interest rates to control inflation and stabilize the economy. When the Fed raises interest rates, it becomes more expensive to borrow money, which tends to slow down economic activity and reduce inflation. Conversely, lowering interest rates makes borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment, which can stimulate economic growth.
Impact on the Dollar:
Higher Interest Rates : When interest rates rise, the yield on U.S. government bonds and other fixed-income securities increases, attracting foreign investment. This inflow of capital strengthens the U.S. dollar as investors buy dollars to purchase these higher-yielding assets.
Lower Interest Rates: Conversely, when interest rates are lowered, the yield on these investments drops, making them less attractive. This can lead to capital outflows and a weaker dollar as investors seek better returns elsewhere.
Interest Rates and Cryptocurrency
Impact on Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are often seen as alternative assets. Their relationship with interest rates can be complex:
Rising Interest Rates:
Higher interest rates can negatively impact cryptocurrencies. As safer, yield-bearing investments become more attractive, investors might shift their funds from speculative assets like cryptocurrencies to bonds and savings accounts.
Falling Interest Rates:
Lower interest rates can make traditional investments less attractive, potentially driving more investment into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies in search of higher returns.
The Importance of Policy Decisions Independent of Political Agendas
Central Bank Independence:
The independence of central banks from political influence is crucial for maintaining economic stability. When monetary policy decisions are driven by economic data rather than political agendas, it helps ensure that actions taken by central banks are aimed at achieving long-term economic goals such as controlling inflation and maintaining employment levels.
Transparency and Credibility:
Independent central banks are more likely to make transparent and credible policy decisions, which can build market confidence.
Economic Stability:
Policymaking that is insulated from short-term political pressures helps avoid economic instability that might arise from politically motivated decisions.
Recent News: Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump and Its Impact on BTC Markets
Recent News:
There was an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, which has created significant political and market turbulence.
Impact on BTC Markets:
Market Reaction:
Such high-profile political events can lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against political and economic instability, may experience increased buying interest as investors seek to protect their wealth.
Price Movements:
Following the news of the assassination attempt, Bitcoin's price saw notable fluctuations as traders reacted to the heightened political risk.
Conclusion
Interest rates play a pivotal role in influencing the value of the U.S. dollar and cryptocurrencies. Central bank decisions on interest rates, when made independently of political agendas, contribute to economic stability and investor confidence. Recent political events, such as the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, highlight the sensitivity of markets, including cryptocurrencies, to geopolitical developments. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors navigating the complex financial landscape.
Compound Interest - A Trader's Secret WeaponIn this video I give you a perspective that traders often neglect - Compound Interest.
Compounding is probably the most important part in terms of becoming a trader that survives in the long run. Social media is filled with traders nowadays, and some of them are pretty good at trading. However, shortsightedness gets to them as they forget about the one thing that ensures longevity in this game. It is way easier dig yourself into drawdown than it is increase your wealth, it is just math. The technique that greatly rewards the disciplined and patient trader is COMPOUNDING.
As Albert Einstein said according to some sources although not verified is that "Compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world".
- R2F
Why Are Bonds Still Crashing?Why are US, UK, and EU bonds still crashing since March 2020?
In this video, we are going to study the relationship between bonds, yields, and interest rates, which many of us find confusing. How can we understand them, and why are bond prices leading the yield, followed by interest rates this season?
10 Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Liquidity is KEY to the MarketsIn this video I go through more about liquidity and why it is important.
The markets move because of liquidity. Without liquidity, there is no trading. The larger the trader, the larger the liquidity required. Understanding the concept of liquidity and the fractal nature of price, trading becomes very interesting. A whole new world opens up to you and you no longer have to keep guessing where price is going. You no longer have to keep chasing candles.
I hope you find this video insightful.
- R2F
LIVE ACCOUNT or PROP FIRM? A Comprehensive GuideIn this video I discuss the pros and cons of trading with a Live Account or with a Prop Firm Account. Hopefully, this will give you a better idea on what would be more ideal for your situation and style of trading.
The FIVE factors I will talk about are:
1. Account Ownership
2. Regulations
3. Profit Potential
4. Financial Risk
5. Trading Rules
At the end of the day, as a trader you should ALWAYS manage your money and your risk. Every choice you make is a trade. When you go to work, you trade your time for money. When you drink a bottle of coca cola you trade your health for quick gratification. Everything is a trade. If you go with a prop firm, treat it with the same respect as a live account. If you trade with a live account with a small balance, treat it like it is a large balance. Your wealth is a consequence of who you are as a person and how you live your life.
Trade smart, trade safe!
- R2F
ICT Breaker & Mitigation Blocks EXPLAINEDToday, we’re diving into two powerful concepts from ICT’s toolkit that can give you an edge in your trading: Breaker Blocks and Mitigation Blocks. There are one of my favourite PD Arrays to trade, especially the Breaker Block. I’m going to explain how I interpret them and how I incorporate them into my trading. Stay tuned all the way to the end because I’m going to drop some gold nuggets along the way"
Ok, so first of all let’s go through what both these PD Arrays look like and what differentiates them, because they are relatively similar and how they are used is practically the same.
On the left we have a Breaker Block and on the right a Mitigation Block. They both are reversal profiles on the timeframe you are seeing them on, and they both break market structure as you can see here. The actual zone to take trade from, or even an entry from, in the instance of this bearish example is the nearest down candle or series of down candles after price makes a lower low. When price pulls back to this area, one could plan or take a trade.
The defining difference is that a Breaker raids liquidity on its respective timeframes by making a higher high or lower low before reversing, whilst a Mitigation Block does not do that. For this reason, a Breaker is always a higher probability PD Array to trade off from. As you should know by now if you are already learning about PD Arrays such as these is that the market moves from one area to liquidity to another. If you don’t even know what liquidity is, stop this video and educate yourself about that first or you will just be doing yourself a disservice.
Alright, so let’s go see some real examples on the chart. Later on I’ll give you a simple mechanical way to trade them, as well as a the discretionary approach which I use. And of course, some tips on how to increase the probability of your setups.
Price Action Fluency As A Second Language: Part TwoPlease watch my previously posted part one video to grasp the fundamentals. Now, let's dive into part two.
Price action fluency involves more than just technical knowledge—it requires a deep understanding of your psychological behavioral responses.
Your brain will have it as its prime objective to avoid pain. It will send signals to the eyes to ignore setups that don't perfectly align. Your eyes will only see what they want to see.
It is essential to train your eyes to recognize every failed setup. To observe every detail of each area, and identify every possible entry point for both directions. Leave no aspect overlooked.
The goal is for your brain to understand every nuance of price action intuitively and objectively. Just like when you read a book in a language you're fluent in, your brain doesn’t pause at every letter to decipher vowels, consonants, word meanings, or sentence structures. Instead, it processes a vast amount of information naturally and seamlessly. It doesn't skip letters or words out of fear; it treats every part of the language equally and objectively.
Objectivity is purity. Objectivity is clarity. Objectivity is mastery.
How to Send Alerts from Tradingview to Telegram I found a new way for sending alerts from tradingview to telegram channel or telegram group by using webhook. I’ve been looking for a while and most of the ways had problems. Some of them had delays in sending the alerts and were not secure because they were using public bots. Some of them required money and were not free. Some of the ways needed coding knowledge. The way I recommend does not have these problems.
It has three simple steps:
1. Creating a telegram channel or group;
2. Creating a telegram bot by using botfather;
3. Signing in/up in pipedream.com.
I made a video for presenting my way. I hope it was helpful and if you have any questions make sure to comment so I can help you.
Thank you!
Psychology: Trade Smart - Focus on Facts, Not wishes!See the Truth: Trading Without Bias
Discover the critical importance of objective analysis in trading.
Learn how to avoid emotional biases, stay neutral, and focus on what the market truly shows you. This guide will help you improve your trading strategies and achieve more consistent results.
Premium & Discount Price Delivery in Institutional TradingGreetings Traders!
In today's educational video, we will delve into the concepts of premium and discount price delivery. The objective is to provide you with a comprehensive understanding of institutional-level market mechanics. Before we proceed, it is crucial to define what we mean by "institutional level" and "smart money," as these terms are often misunderstood. We will also address the common misconceptions about who the liquidity providers are in the market.
By grasping these foundational concepts, you will gain a new perspective on the market, realizing that its movements are not random but calculated and precise, orchestrated by well-informed entities often referred to as smart money.
If you have any questions, please leave them in the comment section below.
Best Regards,
The_Architect