Beyond Technical Analysis
Trade Review - IBTA
Trade Overview
• Structure: Bullish Continuation (Daily) / Bearish Pullback (Weekly)
• Position: Near Mean (D) / Extended from Mean (W)
• Entry Trigger: Range Expansion / Breakout
Entry Details
• Entry Price: 65.38
• Stop Price: 59.55
• Target Price: 76.33
• Expected Risk/Reward: 1.88 R
Exit Strategy
• Exit Price: 76.24
Performance Summary
• Result: Total 16.5% move with a 1.88 R
#AUDCAD 2HAUDCAD 2-Hour Analysis
The AUDCAD pair has recently broken below a trendline support on the 2-hour chart, signaling a potential bearish shift. This breakdown is accompanied by a bearish engulfing candle near the broken trendline, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside movement.
Technical Outlook:
-Pattern: Trendline Breakdown with Bearish Engulfing
-Forecast: Bearish (Sell Opportunity)
-Entry Strategy: Sell near the trendline resistance or after confirmation of the bearish engulfing pattern
Traders may consider entering a sell position around this area, targeting lower support levels. Additional confirmation from indicators like RSI showing downward momentum or MACD reflecting a bearish crossover could strengthen this setup, supporting the bearish outlook for AUDCAD.
BTC to 120k NOW for SURE The predeterministic of Elliott Waves have been played out pretty much. Since Sommer 2023.
It took 1 year to climb to recent new ATH and there is no end.
With NEOWave Analysis (for sure i am not that far to call myself a NEotician) but the advantages of Elliott are so much more valuable to be able to predict the market on the day.
So this would be my assessment.
ATH 2024 120 k +- 5 k (Earliest 29-11-2024 latest 11-12-24)
If its made by human you can master it
#DXY 1DAYDXY Daily Analysis
The DXY (US Dollar Index) is currently testing a key trendline support on the daily chart and has recently formed a bullish engulfing pattern near this support level. This combination of trendline support and a bullish engulfing area suggests a potential upward reversal, creating a favorable buy setup.
Technical Outlook:
- Pattern: Trendline Support with Bullish Engulfing
- Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
- Entry Strategy: Buy near the trendline support and bullish engulfing area
Traders may consider entering a buy position near this support area, targeting higher resistance levels. Additional confirmation from indicators like RSI indicating oversold conditions or MACD showing a bullish crossover can strengthen the signal and support the bullish outlook for the DXY.
UK100 - SHOPPING TIME IS OVERTeam, yesterday we went long UK with target hit
as Today, I expect the downtrend hit toward 8080-65
So please enter slowly with RISK MANAGEMENT
Our target is 8096-8115 - TAKE SOME PARTIAL and bring stop loss to BE.
Target 2 at 8132-46
Target 3 at 8178-96
We play our STOP loss far away at 8035, if it hit stop loss RE-ENTER again. with another 30 points stop loss
XAU/USD ! 11/8 ! downtrend line / scalping XAU / USD trend forecast November 8, 2024! SCALPING
Gold price (XAU/USD) stays below $2,700 as the European session approaches on Friday, weighed down by a slightly stronger US Dollar (USD) amid optimism that Trump’s policies may boost economic growth and inflation. Additionally, a generally positive risk sentiment is reducing demand for the safe-haven metal, pausing its recent recovery from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, after hitting a three-week low on Thursday.
Still following the downtrend - waiting for trendline and retest 2689, scalping down today
/// SELL XAU : zone 2689-2692 scalping
SL: 2695
TP: 40 - 80 - 150 pips (2677)
Safe and profitable trading
WHAT'S FLOWING: METALS | FX | CRYPTOS | COMMODITIESXPDUSD (Palladium): Bearish outlook. The chart indicates potential resistance around the current price levels, suggesting a downward move may be in play.
AUDCHF: Bullish. Positive price action with upward momentum signals the potential for gains, as AUD strength seems to dominate CHF.
CADCHF: Bullish. Similar to AUDCHF, CAD is showing strength against CHF, pushing higher and creating opportunities for bullish plays
GBPAUD: Bearish. GBP appears to be under pressure against AUD, with price action leaning towards a decline, signaling a potential short opportunity.
JPN225 (Nikkei): Bullish. Japan's index is holding strong and showing signs of further upside, making it a favorable option for long positions.
LNKUSD: Bullish. Link (Chainlink) is experiencing upward momentum, making it a strong candidate for a continuation in price appreciation.
XLMUSD: Bullish. Stellar Lumens (XLM) is also looking strong, with buying pressure indicating potential gains in the near term.
CCZ2024 (Cocoa Futures): Bearish. Cocoa futures seem to be in a downtrend, with bearish signals suggesting lower prices ahead.
Fri 2024 11 08 - Short||| Stats |||
Stats Day:
** 08:00 H4 double color, - Short
Stats Week:
** Wed US FOMC 20:00:,
Stats Month:
** Mid Nov end,
Stats Year:
** US Election,
||| Trade Taken |||
Trade Taken:
** Time frame:
* H4
** Time:
* 08am,
Set-Up:
** Trigger for trade:
* 8am H4 double color Short,
* m45 close outside m45 BB Short
Risk Reward:
** Risk:
* Initial Turn,
** Target:
* R 1:1 as momentum at H3 D1 center,
EURNZDEURNZD New forecast👨💻👨💻
Note:
Follow proper risk management rules. Never risk more then 2% of your total capital. Money management is the key of success in this business...... Set your own SL & TP.
Please support this idea with a Like and COMMENT if you find it useful click "follow" on our profile if you will like these type of trading ideas delivered straight to your email in the future.
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Riding the Correction: Unlocking NIFTY’s Next Chapter!Dear Traders,
I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift. The recent upward movement & the following correction in the market have unfolded as anticipated. Over the past two months, my analysis has consistently pointed to an expected correction due to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns.
Technical Analysis Overview:
There are three potential scenarios for the ongoing trend, ranked based on their likelihood of occurring.
Scenario I:
The move initiated from 20 MAR’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (16,828.35 – 26277.35) has spanned over 80 weeks (18M) and indicates a significant completion of wave patterns, suggesting an imminent correction. See the visual representation of the trend lines and corresponding fib retracement levels here:
The correlation between static supports can be observed around 23,893.70 and 21,181.45. This correction is expected to be visible within a 3-month timeframe.
Potential support levels include
S – I: 24,893 ~ 24,753 ~ 24,430 levels,
S – II: 24,050 ~24,000 levels and
S – III: 23,683 levels.
*These values are not actual but just levels
The correction might extend to deeper levels (22,664 & 21,550) as the market progresses.
Time resistances are anticipated on 09th OCT, 17th OCT, and 30th OCT for all probable scenarios.
---------------
Scenario II:
The move from 26 OCT’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (18,837.85 – 26,277.35) has completed mid-way and is expected to continue after this correction, potentially reaching unprecedented levels. Find the visual representation of this move with trend lines & fib retracements here:
The range of this move is limited to the monthly timeframe, indicating the completion of 1 year from the start of this sub-trend.
Potential support levels include,
S – I: 24,525 ~ 24,378 levels,
S – II: 23,900 ~ 23,893.70 levels and
S – III: 23,450 levels.
---------------
Scenario III:
The move from 04 JUN’24 – 27 SEPT’24 (21,121.45 – 26,277.35) has almost completed its half journey and is facing a correction before extending its uptrend by a few more waves. While this scenario has the lowest probability compared to the others, it is essential to consider its potential impact on the current trend.
The pictorial representation can be seen here:
Further details are not added as the market actions till now does not validate this probability.
---------------
Other Influential Factors:
Geo-political tensions and concerns regarding escalation have historically preceded corrections prior to the US presidential elections, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to the market plunge, albeit not solely responsible for it. Additionally, the FED's likely rate cuts have been influenced by the upcoming US elections, and SEBI's regulatory actions aim to curb over-optimism and maintain market neutrality.
Important Dates to Remember:
Mark your calendars for OCT 9th (RBI interest rate decision @ 10AM) and OCT 10th (US inflation reports).
---------------
Final Verdict:
While the scenarios are meticulously laid out, the selection of the valid scenario remains a work in progress. We are eagerly awaiting further cues from the market and will provide updates as they unfold. However, one thing remains certain – the current trend has reversed (at least for the mentioned time frames). Therefore, adopting a bearish stance could prove to be profitable.
---------------
Strategy:
Considering the current market conditions, adopting a bearish stance seems prudent, especially levels around 24,450 ~ 24,000 are to be tested. Keep a close watch on the market and stay informed for potential opportunities.
Disclaimer:
Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance.
Fellow Traders,
Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be made via this post, new post & through minds) . Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally.
Thank you for investing your time in reading this article,
Your readership is greatly appreciated.
Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
ATHs Reached, What Now?It's been some time as we were simply waiting on this major market movement to occur and reach all time highs. So the question is, what comes next?
My speculative hypothesis is:
We get a deep market retracement. Eventually.
My actual plan is this:
We have broken out of a major range that we were in for ~6 months. Now we monitor price and wait for the next structure to build. This structure can be another range, such as the small range example on chart. Or it can be a reasonably sharp reversal at some point.
But the key is that the anxiety can be removed from trying to constantly catch a top (if you are also somewhat bearish), by reassuring yourself that the market will show itself bearish when the time comes. That's why we have a hypothesis but will still wait for the next structure to form.
And that is exactly what I will be doing from now, beginning to scale some profit on spot holdings as I see fit and monitoring larger timeframes to watch for the next structure.
Bullish EURO ScalpThe Euro futures market is showing signs of short-term bullish momentum, supported by a recent uptick in buying pressure. With the Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut, market sentiment appears to favor a weaker dollar in the near term, providing an opportunity for scalping long positions.
Looking to capitalize on quick intraday moves, the plan is to buy into minor pullbacks, targeting key resistance levels while maintaining tight stop-loss placements to manage risk effectively. This setup aligns with the broader potential for a short-term recovery amid mixed U.S. economic data.
Trading Trend Channel on $TROY Nice parallel channel being held and forming consolidation on TROY after a nice move early this week.
This channel has a large swing range, decent order flow and; is not 'tooo' volatile.. to still be able to see some large ROI% ,... and all with fairly low(ish) risk.
**
Im Looking to get a 5-10% move from here on the spot chart as i expect this to try and test previous ((VA)H/L) areas until, a break out happens and we can start to look for bigger plays.
I will be keeping this one on the watchlist for a little while
Much love to you all!
Peace$Love&Happy<3Trading
-WeRektt
Wayfair’s Way Up!Wayfair is building strong bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $35.00 level. A breakout above the $49.00 resistance would confirm further upside, positioning the stock to reach the $76.18 weekly resistance. This trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, with risk managed via a stop-loss at $27.50.
In the longer term, Wayfair has the potential to reach $90.66, supported by the company’s expanding presence in the e-commerce and home goods markets. As consumer trends continue to shift toward online shopping, Wayfair’s investments in logistics, supply chain efficiency, and a seamless user experience bolster its position for sustained growth. With a solid brand and loyal customer base, Wayfair is well-positioned to capture further market share, supporting a bullish outlook toward $90.66.
With strong technical momentum and an advantageous market position, Wayfair is primed to reach $76.18 in the short term, with $90.66 as a longer-term target.
Follow on X @The_Trading_Mechanic for more electric insights and market strategies!
NYSE:W
Opening (IRA): SMH October 18th 220 Covered StraddleComments:
Third highest 30-day IV (46.1%) on my options highly liquid ETF board behind BITO and TQQQ.
There are two different aspects to this trade, the first being the 220 monied covered call with the short call at the -75 delta. I had to route this as two separate trades and got filled for covered call aspect for a 213.35 debit.
The same strike short put is at the +21 delta strike, I got filled for a 5.05 credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 428.30
Break Even: 213.35 for the covered call; 214.95 for the short put
Max Profit: 6.65 (for the monied covered call) + 5.05 (for the short put) = 11.70
ROC at Max: 2.73%
50% Max: 5.85
ROC at 50% Max: 1.37%
Generally speaking, I'll look to take profit at 50% max; otherwise, I'll look to roll out the short straddle as a unit to maintain net delta at or below +50 (100 delta for the shares, -75 for the short call, + 25 for the short put).
Breaking the Stretch: LULU Aiming for $355 with MomentumLululemon (LULU) is building strong bullish momentum after successfully filling the $245 bullish gap. The stock is now primed to break through the $275 resistance level, heading toward the next significant weekly resistance level at $354.66. With a favorable 3.39 risk-to-reward ratio, this presents an excellent opportunity for investors to enter, managing risk with a stop-loss at $243.37.
Lululemon’s strong financials and continuous brand expansion, coupled with increased demand in athleisure and lifestyle apparel, further support its upward trajectory. As the company continues to outperform in its market segment, there is a clear path for LULU to hit its $355 target in the near term.
NASDAQ:LULU
King Dollar is Back!DXY surged this week, bolstered by strong U.S. economic data.
Durable Goods Orders for July spiked by 9.9%, far exceeding expectations, while Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.0%, indicating robust economic activity. The labor market remained stable with Initial Jobless Claims slightly below forecasts and Continuing Claims steady.
On the downside, the housing market showed weakness, with Pending Home Sales dropping by 5.5%, reflecting challenges in that sector. Despite this, the overall data supports a bullish outlook for the dollar.
As we approach the next trading week, key support levels like 101.00-101.50 and last week’s highs will be critical areas to watch for potential long entries.
Bullish Yen Futures Trade IdeaOn the current chart, Yen futures are showing early signs of strength, supported by a weaker dollar environment and potential risk-off sentiment. After consolidating at a key support level, bullish momentum appears to be building, suggesting a possible continuation toward the next resistance zones.