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Beyond Technical Analysis

#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 03.02 - 03.07.25Last Week : Globex opened above VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range and February RTH Cost basis which gave a hold to start the week to push us into the above Edge but more strength didn't come in, instead we ended up holding under 6074 - 60s and closer to Monday RTH open price failed in the Edge giving us a move into lower Value with a close inside it. Holding under Cost Basis meant weakness for longer term buyers and triggered moves lower all week as they needed to get out closer to month end we got. Lower Edge kept giving bounces back into Value which kept building more supply and when MM Month end came on Thursday we were able to take the stops under 5930 to give us continuation to test lower Value under 5870s. To finish the week we found buying inside lower Value and what I think was end of the Week short covering before the weekend which pushed us back into the Edge in the afternoon, all momentum traders had to do was buy it up under the Edge to push price back inside which triggered stops on the way up to give us end of day squeeze back into above VAL where all the supply was. This Week : We are starting a new Month and things can be tricky to start, we are at interesting locations on Weekly, Daily and Hourly charts with quite a few options going into this week so we really have to be open to different scenarios as things are not as clear as they were last 2 weeks going into Month End. On Daily TF we have showed a failure over Daily Edge Top and at the same time have transitioned into a correction mode under it which gave us the move from Daily Edge into Daily VAH at 987 - 67 and flushed the buyers under it through Daily Mean towards Daily VAL at 846 - 28 without tagging it. End of week covering took us back into Daily VAH but left Daily TF in Correction mode under its MAs. On Weekly TF we had a long consolidation in new Weekly balance over 5950s but we never transacted through the whole balance which means no acceptance in it, instead we built up a lot of Supply inside which at the end of the Month gave us this move back into lower Balance with a strong break and close under smaller MA with price closing right at the top/bottom ( depends which way we look at it ) of Weekly Balance. For now this tells us that we could see more weakness going into this new Month, as long as we hold under Weekly Smaller MA which is around 6010s and don't accept back above Daily VAH of 5987 - 67 then that could bring in continued weakness to rotate lower back towards Daily Mean and possibly test Daily VAL and maybe see a push under it. Holding under the Daily Edge of 6073 - 43 implies continued weakness as well and will continue to target lower Daily areas all the way down into its bottom Daily Edge at 5754 - 24 which has Weak Stops and a Gap to fill under which was made during contract roll. Does not mean we will go there right away or go there at all of course BUT there are lots of things stacked up for more downside so far, of course we have to watch each area for continuation through but if there is still more sell volume to come out then we have to watch out looking for much higher prices from here and instead look for balances with weakness and rotations back down. This week could play out as an inside week with weakness towards the bottom of previous week and IF there will be stronger volume then we could see last weeks lows get taken to give us pushes towards Previous Distribution Balance that we have made back in October which would be next big spot to visit. On the Upside IF buying from Friday sticks and we start holding over 5930 - 40s then need to be careful forcing downside as we could build up enough and bring in more buying to push into above Value again, we do have trapped buyers inside it from last week so it would be a spot to be careful at as we could continue to see selling out of that Value on any pushes into it, for more strength inside that Value we would really need to push through VAL and start holding over 5970 - 90s which would signal stability and could have the price balance inside that Value and of course for anything higher we would need to take out February RTH cost basis above VAH because we have most of the buying from last few months trapped over it.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Upcoming Monthly/Weekly Analysis!FA Analysis: 1- World economy and US economy are slowing down and the fear of recession is here. This time the recession will be caused by both demand and supply. The last one was supply-based. 2- US politics is the definition of self-destruction: tariffs; throwing under the bus Europe, Canada, Mexico and all historic allies. 3- Inflation is up. All these factors are bad news for equities and NQ. 4- Tax cuts is what investors and corporations are looking to boost up stocks and equities. 5- Next FED might provide free money (the printing machine) to address/delay the recession. 6- This week, we have key data and events. Good news is good news for equities and vice-versa. TA Analysis: Monthly TF: The monthly candle was a red candle but not really a bearish candle as no break happened. From strictly TA analysis, nothing to do until price breaks either direction. But based on FA, I see price moving down to at least 18000 (38.2 fib). Weekly TF: NQ provided a bearish weekly close. However, price did not confirm a change of structure. Hence, bearers need to break and close quickly below 20529 to continue the down movement. Otherwise, price must go back to retest and grab liquidity at 21702. My bias is with a direct continuation down. Daily TF: At daily TF, we've two scenarios: 1- A meaningful retrace to 21702 as price was unable to close below 20529 to grab liquidity from the previous swing high (orange circles). 2- A shy retrace to reflect the battle between buyers and sellers and a continuation down. That's all for this upcoming Month/Week. Wish you green pips! GL!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
Bitcoin's 2025 Price Action Mirrors 2017 - Is History Repeating?Bitcoin Halving & The Trump Factor: A Historical Parallel Bitcoin's price action in 2025 is eerily reminiscent of the post-halving rally of 2017. In both cases, BTC saw a prolonged accumulation phase before a massive markup period. What's even more intriguing is how macro-political events align: Trump was elected in November 2016 , just before BTC went parabolic in 2017, and once again, he's elected in November 2024 , right before Bitcoin enters its explosive post-halving markup phase. Could this be more than just coincidence? Accumulation Phase Ends – The Markup Begins From November 9, 2024 , to February 28, 2025 , Bitcoin was in a 107-day accumulation phase . This mirrors previous post-halving cycles, where BTC consolidates in the Green HPR band before entering the next stage. Now, it appears we are entering the Markup Phase, where I expect Bitcoin to rally towards $120K+ in the coming months. Applying the 2017 Cycle to 2025 The 2017 bull run followed a 59:156:360-day cycle (Accumulation → Markup → Distribution). Using the same ratio and expanding it for 2025, I’ve projected a 107:280:646-day cycle , where: ✅ 107 days Accumulation (Completed!) 📈 280 days Markup (Just Beginning!) 📉 646 days Distribution & Declining (Post-Top Phase) This fractal projection aligns well with historical price action, reinforcing the likelihood of Bitcoin repeating this structure. BitBo’s Rainbow Regression Chart Confirms the Setup Looking at BitBo’s Bitcoin Rainbow Halving Price Regression Chart , BTC briefly dipped into the blue band , just like in 2017’s first wave. However, in both cases, Bitcoin quickly recovered within days and launched into its Markup phase , which is exactly what we’re seeing now! 🔹 Key Takeaway: Bitcoin is following its historic halving cycle patterns, and if history continues to rhyme, the next 280 days could be a wild ride to six-figure BTC prices! 🚀 Don't forget, Patience is Paramount
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by PatienceIsParamount
USDJPY CHART TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHECK CAPTAIN This chart represents a USD/JPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) price analysis on the 1-hour timeframe from FXCM. It highlights key buy and sell zones with potential price movements. Key elements in the chart: 1. Buyer's Zone (Support Area): The pink-shaded region around 148.912 is identified as a buyer’s zone, suggesting that price may find support and reverse upwards. 2. Selling Zone (Resistance Area): The yellow zone around 151.331 is labeled as a selling zone, indicating a strong resistance level where price may face rejection. 3. Price Projection: The black arrow suggests a potential bearish move from the selling zone down to the buyer’s zone. The blue arrow suggests an alternative bullish scenario, where price could break above the selling zone and continue upwards. Conclusion: This chart presents two possible scenarios for USD/JPY: A bearish rejection from 151.331, leading to a drop towards 148.912. A bullish breakout above 151.331, continuing the uptrend. Traders should watch price action around these key levels to determine the next move.
by afzalforex110
"Bitcoin Filled the CME Gap – What’s Next?🚨 Boom! Bitcoin just did EXACTLY what I predicted. 📌 The CME Gap at $92,695 - $93,790 is now completely filled! 📊 In My previous analysis, I highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin pushing towards this key level due to liquidity engineering. Now that the gap has been filled, the BIG question remains: ⚠️ Was this just a liquidity grab, or is Bitcoin gearing up for a massive breakout? 🔸 Scenario 1 - Bullish Continuation: If BTC holds above $94K, we could see a push towards GETTEX:98K - $102K in the coming days. Whales accumulating above this level could indicate further upside momentum. 🔹 Scenario 2 - Reversal & Liquidity Trap: If BTC fails to hold above this level and starts closing below GETTEX:92K , this could be a classic fake breakout before another drop towards FWB:88K for a deeper retest. 💰 Key Levels to Watch: 🔹 Resistance: $94K | GETTEX:98K | $102K 🔸 Support: GETTEX:92K | FWB:88K | $84K 👀 Next Move: A clear 4H or Daily close above $94K could confirm a continuation higher. A rejection and close below GETTEX:92K might indicate a potential reversal. 📌 This was exactly what I predicted in My last analysis. If you missed it, check it out here: 🔗 Previous Analysis: Bitcoin Another Drop or the Biggest Market Trap? 🔥 This is a CRITICAL moment for Bitcoin. Are we about to see a true breakout, or was this just a perfectly engineered liquidity grab? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀👇 #Bitcoin #BTCUSD #Crypto #MarketManipulation #WhaleGames #Trading #LiquidityTrap #CMEGaps #CryptoBreakout #PriceAction
CME:BTC1!
by SeyedHamid822
1
Bitcoin analysis with astrology and wave analysisSummary: Btc is inside Wave 4. has the opportunity to form an Irregular Correction before continue strengthening to the resistance target. Momentum indicators are pointing downward in neutral area Momentum: The momentum indicator is pointing down in the neutral area, indicating that Bitcoin has the potential to weaken temporarily to form Wave 4 before strengthening to the target resistance area. Pattern: Btc is yet to form an Irregular Correction inside Wave 4. Price: Btc has the potential to meet target resistance at 125,000. Time: Btc has the potential to reverse direction on February 28, 2025, and March 14, 2025.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Rich_From_Home
USD/CAD Trend During US Trading SessionUSD/CAD news: 🔆USD/CAD rallied yesterday as Trump outlined clear tariffs including those on Canada and Mexico from March 4 🔆DXY maintained its third consecutive day of gains after the US Q/Q GDP was released as expected, indicating that the US economy remains solid after the tariff preparations 🔆However, on the technical side, the RSI (1H) indicator after entering the overbought zone has shown signs of divergence against the pair, so there will be a short-term correction before the main uptrend continues Personal opinion: 🔆USD/CAD still maintains a strong upward momentum after the latest economic and financial news - the latest tariff policy has more influence on the strength of CAD. Analysis: 🔆Based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with EMA34 to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/CAD 1.4420 – 1.4410 ❌SL: 1.4390 | ✅TP: 1.4460 – 1.4500 – 1.4540 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
USD/JPY Trend Today - Maintaining UptrendUSD/JPY news: 🔆The US dollar (USD) strengthened alongside rising US Treasury yields, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, reaching 107.30. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note peaked at 1.17% for the day. 🔆In recent developments, US President Donald Trump has initiated an investigation into potential tariffs on copper imports to boost domestic production of this essential metal. Additionally, he reaffirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico will be implemented after the current one-month delay period ends next week. 🔆The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates from 0.50% to 0.75% this year. According to Bloomberg, overnight index swaps indicate full pricing of a rate hike by September, with a 50% probability of an earlier move as soon as June. 🔆On the economic front, Japan's Tokyo Core CPI y/y came in at 2.2%, slightly below the expected 2.3%. Preliminary Industrial Production m/m declined by 1.1%, missing forecasts of a 1.0% drop. Meanwhile, Retail Sales y/y matched expectations at 3.9%. Personal Opinion: 🔆In the short term, USD/JPY is likely to strengthen due to the continued strength of the US dollar, combined with weak economic data from Japan. Analysis: 🔆Based on the trend line and important resistance - support levels to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/JPY 149.80 – 149.60 ❌SL: 149.30 | ✅TP: 150.30– 150.80 – 151.20 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
Bill Ackman: The Activist Investor Who Challenges the Status QuoHello Traders! Today, we’re going to explore the trading and investment philosophy of one of the most successful activist investors in the world – Bill Ackman . Known for his bold moves and unapologetic approach, Ackman has built a reputation for making large, influential investments and actively working to restructure companies in order to create value. With his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital Management , Ackman has turned millions into billions by taking concentrated positions in underperforming companies, often pushing for changes that he believes will improve shareholder value. Bill Ackman’s Investment Strategy Ackman’s investing philosophy is rooted in a few key principles that have guided his success: Activist Investing: Ackman is known for buying large stakes in companies and pushing for significant changes. This often involves changes in management, strategy, or financial structure to unlock value. He doesn’t just buy stocks, he buys control to influence the direction of companies. Concentrated Bets: Unlike most fund managers who diversify, Ackman makes concentrated investments, believing in a small number of high-conviction ideas. He typically goes big on the companies he believes will give the highest returns. Long-Term Vision: While Ackman is an activist, he is also a long-term investor. He’s known to hold onto stocks for years as he works through his plans to improve the companies he invests in. Thorough Research and Analysis: Before making any moves, Ackman ensures he has done comprehensive research. He’s known for his deep dives into a company’s fundamentals, industry trends, and potential catalysts for growth. Notable Investments and Activist Moves Ackman’s career has been built on several high-profile, successful investments. Here are some of his best-known plays: Herbalife: One of his most controversial investments, Ackman shorted Herbalife, claiming the company was a pyramid scheme. Despite facing heavy opposition and pressure, Ackman stuck to his position, although ultimately the trade didn’t work out as he anticipated. It became a case study in risk and persistence. Target: Ackman took a large position in Target, pushing for changes in the company’s real estate strategy and retail business. His work with Target helped to bring greater shareholder value. Valeant Pharmaceuticals: Ackman’s investment in Valeant Pharmaceuticals initially gained massive attention. Despite the stock’s later troubles, his involvement in the company drew attention to the power of activism and led to changes in leadership at Valeant. Chipotle Mexican Grill: Ackman has also invested in Chipotle, pushing for operational improvements and better management. His efforts have been instrumental in driving changes in the company’s strategy, helping the stock recover from earlier setbacks. Risk Management and Position Sizing When it comes to risk management, Ackman follows a few key strategies to minimize losses and maximize returns: Concentration of Capital: Ackman often places large amounts of capital in a few high-conviction investments. This allows him to have a significant impact on the companies he invests in but also requires disciplined risk management and careful positioning. Leverage and Shorting: Ackman has used leverage in some of his more aggressive plays, such as shorting positions in Herbalife, to maximize returns. This adds a level of risk, but when used correctly, it can significantly amplify his gains. Focus on Catalyst-Driven Events: He places his investments based on company-specific catalysts like management changes, mergers, or restructurings. This allows him to predict when a stock will outperform or underperform. What This Means for Investors Bill Ackman’s approach to investing is not for the faint of heart. It involves big risks and big rewards. His activist investing style is about taking concentrated positions, being willing to fight for change, and holding onto those investments for the long haul. For investors, there are valuable lessons to be learned from Ackman’s strategies: Don’t be afraid to make big bets. If you believe in a company’s long-term potential, be prepared to back it with significant capital. Know the companies you invest in. Ackman is famous for his in-depth research before making any move. This is a lesson for every investor – do your homework before making investment decisions. Take a long-term view. While Ackman is an activist, he is also a patient investor. He understands that meaningful change takes time, and he’s willing to wait for the payoff. Conclusion Bill Ackman’s approach to investing has made him one of the most influential investors of his time. By focusing on concentrated bets, thoroughly researching companies, and taking an activist role, Ackman has proven that bold moves and long-term vision can lead to great success. Have you followed any of Bill Ackman’s investments or strategies? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below! Let’s learn and grow together!
Education
by TraderRahulPal
Bearish opportunity in PEPE1. On the daily chart price has purged to Daily SIBI LOW - This is my main PD array 2. On H1 we have MSS confirming orderflow 3. We have draws as the sellside liquidity On the fundamental side: "The SEC just said that meme coins are generally NOT considered securities under US federal law. They also said that meme coins have "limited or no use" and do not need to be registered with the SEC. "Did the SEC basically just call meme coins so worthless that they're not even considered a security? " "quoted from the, The Kobeissi Letter on X/Twitter"
Short
by Sherman_Trades
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 13th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. The February 24 pivot forecast reversed crude from the strong 69.80 support level. This level was broken and eroded during the week, as I predicted last time. Based on timing and the chart, there are signs of the second phase beginning. In this context, I closed my short position from February 3. The price movement from the February 3 extreme forecast on CL futures provided $2K per contract. ⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. The next extreme forecast is March 3. Another extreme forecast is on March 19, combined with retrograde Mercury on March 17.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.2-28.2 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 16th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). The February 24 pivot forecast turned gold downward, marking the top of the current base cycle and forming a double top with the February 11 pivot forecast. By Friday’s close, gold hit the first support at 2850 (see chart). We are in the final stage of the base cycle, but the pattern does not yet resemble a cycle completion. 👉 The price movement from the January 29 extreme forecast to the February 11 or February 24 extreme highs provided over $15K per contract on GC futures. Those who entered, congratulations on an excellent trade. A short position was opened at the February 24 pivot forecast. 👉 Strong support is at the October 28 extreme forecast level (2850-2830 on the current futures contract). This level needs to be broken. The next support is the broken double top at the previous retrograde Mercury level from November 25 (2780 on the current futures contract). ⚠️ The next extreme forecast is March 3 – the beginning of the retrograde Venus period, which I wrote about in early December. I am not sure if this extreme forecast will start a new cycle. A strong extreme forecast within the timing of the base cycle’s completion falls on the start of retrograde Mercury on March 17 (week 18 of the cycle).
COMEX:GC1!
by irinawest