gbpusd 2025-4-25some level are in the char that can trade in in it
first of all we should wait to reach price to that level and wait to make setup
in up level we must see down setup and in bottom we must up steup
Beyond Technical Analysis
Gold is overdue a visit to the 200 day MAThis is not an active trade idea, however at somepoint I belive Gold will visit the 200 day MA. With the help of ChatGPT I found that gold on average has touched the 200 day mopving average on average twice per year for the last 50 years. Currently we have not touched it since November 23, the law of probability and time point to that we will be there soon.
Now before everyone tells me this is not possible lets put some context in this possible move. Gold's 200 day MA is currently at 2719 and in a few days it will be at the last major high pivot of 2788 - this was the level that gold was just 6 short months ago. Keep in mind that the dollar has just touched levels it has not seen since March 22, a 6 month back track of price is not that major.
I am long term bullish on Gold and will always be looking to get long in the long term. My current position I am short from 3466 with TP at the small gap fill around 3175.
SP500 what to expect next?As a seasoned trader with over a decade of experience navigating the markets, I’ve been closely monitoring the S&P 500’s current price action. The index is presently confined within a well-defined range, with resistance at 5,528 and support at 5,146, based on recent price behavior. We’ve observed a notable deviation below the lower boundary of this range, which often signals a potential reversal or absorption of liquidity before a move higher.
My analysis suggests the next likely target is the upper boundary of the range at 5,528, coinciding with a weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) that has yet to be filled. Should the price approach this zone, I anticipate a strong market reaction, potentially driven by aggressive order flow as participants defend or challenge this key level. If the weekly FVG is invalidated—meaning price sweeps through this area without significant rejection—the S&P 500 could be poised to break out and target new all-time highs from its current position.
Investors Turn to Gold as Tariff Tensions PersistGold is trading near $3,330 on Friday and is on track to record its third consecutive weekly gain. The increase in prices is primarily driven by heightened safe-haven demand, as uncertainty surrounding a potential U.S.-China trade agreement continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Although Chinese officials have publicly denied the continuation of negotiations, President Trump stated that discussions are still in progress. Adding to the cautious outlook, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that any progress would depend on the reduction of existing tariffs, reinforcing market skepticism about a near-term resolution.
Key resistance is at $3410, followed by $3,500 and $3,600. Support stands at $3315, then $3290 and $3250.
Bitcoin Surges and Gold Falls: Risk Appetite RisesBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
Friday’s session sends a clear message to financial markets: risk appetite is roaring back, and investors are shifting their positions accordingly. While Bitcoin heads for its best week since March—fueled by geopolitical expectations and signs of a softer U.S. trade policy—the gold market, traditionally a haven in times of uncertainty, is undergoing a mild pullback from its record highs.
Bitcoin Tops $93,000 and Eyes Weekly Gains
The leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), climbed to $93,300, marking a near 10% gain for the week after briefly touching $94,000 on Wednesday. This rebound represents a sharp reversal from the caution seen in recent weeks and largely reflects a shift in tone from Washington.
President Donald Trump withdrew his threat to remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a move interpreted as an institutional stability signal. He also hinted at potentially lowering tariffs on China, easing market tensions and benefiting higher-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies.
Although Beijing officially denied any trade talks, Bloomberg reports suggest China is considering exempting certain U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs, stoking hopes for a de-escalation. In this context, Bitcoin, which has historically reacted to geopolitical uncertainty and market sentiment, has drawn investor interest as a speculative asset with upside potential amid greater liquidity and less trade friction.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
A long-term Bitcoin chart reveals that the Fibonacci retracement has returned near the 61.0% level, currently sitting just below it. The Point of Control (POC) is around $84,568, significantly below today’s price of $93,617.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 55.84, shows no signs of extreme overbought conditions. Should the current resistance level be decisively broken, Bitcoin could surge toward $98,000, reclaiming territory lost in late February. Conversely, if momentum falters, a pullback to the 50% Fibonacci retracement—around $90,822, the previous resistance—becomes more likely.
Gold Pulls Back from Record Highs
On the flip side, spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,318.28 per ounce, while June futures slipped 0.6% to $3,328.67. These modest declines come after gold reached a historic peak of $3,500 earlier this week.
The primary catalyst for the pullback has been renewed risk-on sentiment, driven by strong earnings from tech giants Alphabet (+2.5%), Amazon (+3.3%), and Nvidia (+3.6%)—all benefiting from the AI boom and boosting confidence in growth assets.
Additionally, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, which had hit three-year lows, pressured precious metals. Yet gold remains elevated, underpinned by structural factors like persistent inflation, Middle East conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions.
A New Balance Between Safe Havens and Speculation
This week’s action underscores a temporary shift in investor priorities. With signs of trade détente and no surprises from central banks, capital is moving from defensive assets into higher-return, speculative vehicles such as cryptocurrencies.
Other altcoins have also performed well: Polygon is up 11%, Cardano +4.4%, Solana +2.7%, while Ethereum holds steady near $1,770.
Although the backdrop remains fragile—trade talks remain uncertain and global risks linger—the market’s narrative has turned cautiously optimistic. This shift positions Bitcoin as a hybrid asset, straddling the line between a digital haven and a high-risk investment.
Conclusion
The divergent performance of Bitcoin and gold highlights the market’s current duality: optimism with reservations. If trade-tension relief takes hold, digital assets could see further gains. Conversely, renewed conflict would likely propel gold back into the spotlight as the premier store of value.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
NAS100USD: Bullish Scalping Opportunity Within Fair Value GapGreetings Traders,
On NAS100USD, the current market structure is clearly bullish. To capitalize on this momentum, we aim to align our intraday opportunities with the prevailing trend.
At present, price has retraced into a fair value gap (FVG), presenting a potential high-probability zone for a bullish reaction. Upon receiving confirmation, this setup offers a favorable opportunity to enter long positions, with the objective of targeting the liquidity pool situated above.
Key Focus:
Structure: Bullish
Entry Zone: Fair Value Gap (retracement)
Target: Overhead liquidity pool
As always, ensure confirmation before executing any trades, and remain disciplined in managing your risk.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
EURUSD COT and Liquidity Analysis Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
So what we see in the report of this week:
We can see slight decrease in the longs and increase in the shorts but for the reversal it has to happen in the liquidity pool. So for the bigger pullback I think market makers will be adding shorts att highs as well as closing longs.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
GBPUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisHey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
So what we see in the report of this week:
We can see slight decrease in the longs and increase in the shorts but for the reversal it has to happen in the liquidity pool. So for the bigger pullback I think market makers will be adding shorts att highs as well as closing longs.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
XAUMO | Tactical Market Report – Friday, April 25, 2025
Overall Market Outlook:
The market is currently moving in a clear distribution zone, between 3,337 and 3,346.
There’s strong evidence of a bull trap near the 3,346 high.
Price is failing to stay above the VWAP, and we’re seeing overlapping signals between the HMA5 and EMA21.
A close below 3,329.00 would be a major reversal signal, possibly kicking off a wide downward move.
Session-Based Behavior (Cairo Time):
1. London Session (10:00 AM – 1:00 PM):
Expected Behavior: Fake breakout to attract buyers
Tactics:
Watch for fast moves into the 3,337–3,345 zone
Sell if rejection candles appear (Shooting Star / Bearish Engulfing)
Confirm with divergence or internal support break on the 15-min chart
2. Pre-New York (1:00 PM – 3:00 PM):
Expected Behavior: Tight consolidation and position building
Tactics:
Monitor price around 3,320–3,329
If price stays below VWAP, stick with short positions
Don’t go long unless there’s a real breakout with strong volume + RSI confirmation
3. New York Open (3:30 PM – 4:30 PM):
Expected Behavior: Initial fake move followed by strong momentum
Tactics:
Sell after a break below 3,306 + retest
RSI dropping below 40 = strong bearish momentum confirmation
4. New York Continuation (After 4:30 PM):
Expected Behavior: Continuation in the dominant direction
Tactics:
If price stays under 3,306.50 → continue selling
Use a trailing take profit and adjust based on price movement
Trading Scenarios:
Main Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup):
Entry Options:
Sell Limit at 3,329
Sell Stop at 3,306
Stop Loss Levels:
SL1: 3,341.12
SL2 (Trailing): 3,345.35
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3,294
TP2: 3,278
TP3: 3,255.74
TP4: 3,226.88
TP5: 3,198.01
Confidence Level: 85%
Why This Trade?
Failed breakout
Clear distribution signals on the chart
Confirmed bull trap above 3,342.82
Alternative Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability):
Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346
Stop Loss: SL at 3,337
Take Profit:
TP1: 3,355
TP2: 3,367.45
Confidence Level: 50%
Conditions Needed:
Ichimoku Cloud breakout
EMA21, EMA8, and HMA5 aligning upward
Bullish RSI divergence + MACD crossover
Structural Outlook (10:00 AM):
Moving Average Cluster (HMA5 + EMA21): 3,307 – 3,310
Institutional Resistance Zone: 3,337 – 3,346
Confirmed Traps:
Bull Traps at 3,342.82 and 3,338.70
Volume Profile:
VWAP = Rejected
VPOC shifted toward 3,294
Large selling volume: 246.69K
=========
Key Economic Events Today (Cairo Time):
4:00 PM – Final US Consumer Confidence (April):
Strong reading = Bullish for USD = Bearish for Gold
Weak reading = Bearish for USD = Bullish for Gold
Evening – US Oil Rig Count:
Increase = Rising inflation expectations → indirect support for Gold
No change = Minor short-term impact
========
XAUMO | Bullish Tactical Plan
Bullish Idea Summary:
Even though the market is under heavy selling pressure, there’s still a chance for a bullish counter move if these technical reversal signals show up:
Reversal candles like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing near 3,294–3,286 support
A solid breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud at 3,346
Bullish RSI Divergence + MACD Crossover
Conditions for Bullish Activation:
Price must break and hold above 3,346 with rising volume
HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 must cross upward on both 15-min and 1-hour charts
Must see strong momentum + BBMA reversal confirmation
Buy Scenario Details:
Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346.20
Stop Loss:
SL1: 3,337
SL2 (Trailing): 3,333.15
Targets:
TP1: 3,355.00
TP2: 3,367.45 (weekly high)
TP3: 3,385.00 (Institutional exit zone via BBU)
Confidence Level: 50–60%
Why the caution? Previous breakouts in this range have failed repeatedly.
Final Note:
“Below 3,306, price gets crushed. Above 3,346 is just a distribution trap.
Buying without a real breakout? That’s tactical suicide.
Read the chart, not your wishes.”
Conclusion:
If the bullish scenario plays out today, Friday April 25, 2025, the market may be heading into a short-term rally fueled by temporary momentum after a sharp pullback.
The key to this move is a strong and confirmed breakout above the 3,346 resistance zone. As of now, price is still hesitating below that level, which signals ongoing distribution—or maybe preparation for a breakout.
To confirm the setup, you’ll need:
a clean close above 3,346
upward crossover of HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 on the 15m and 1h
RSI crossing 55 and MACD flipping positive
Only then does the Buy Stop at 3,346.20 become a serious play, with stops placed smartly at 3,337 and a trailing stop at 3,333.15 to avoid fakeouts.
Initial targets are 3,355, then 3,367.45, and finally 3,385 as the stretch goal—an institutional area where profit-taking is likely.
Still, with confidence only around 50–60%, this trade needs clear technical confirmation before execution.
If the market drops back below 3,329, the bearish plan remains the default.
The price decides. We just stay ready.
USDCHF COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
We can see large longs closing signaling continuation of the downtrend. So we should be looking only for the short on the runs on to the CLS highs. If you draw long term Chanel lows are at 0.785 where I think price is heading.
/b]
Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
XAUUSD COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
We can see large profit taking - Longs being closed. It doesn't mean, it's bearish now, only the momentum is slowing down. If I would be buyer. I would wait for and enter not he strong level where was targets position seen. Explanation in the charts
/b]
Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
USDJPY COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
Consolidatin followed by 3 weeks sell of with the net shorts being added. Price still didn't reach liquidity so in my opinion we have still bearish smart money sentiment. So we got framework and bias now we need to look for setups. Which I will again use my CLS method.
/b]
Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
GOLD POSSIBLE BUY Forgot to post result
1: 2RR
Target reached
Price variation checked out before taking risk, GVG filled
Today is not yesterday, let's go for a new opportunity
DEGEN Could Go Up or Down but I Think That It Will Go UpIt’s like at the bottom of the chart right now and if it we buy it and it happens to go up to the top we could make lots of money you and I
USDCAD COT and Liquidity AnalysisCOT Report Analysis:
This is a bit tricky one on the first sight you can see there is more longs than shorts, but !! And this where many traders makes mistakes when they are looking to the just current COT data.
We can see that since march longs has dropped from the 165k to 1002K this is bearish. Net positions also going down. while the long % exposure is still 85% long it mostly go much lower.
Also price action confirms lower prices, but I think healthy pullback is in play. So we got framework and bias now we need to look for setups. Which I will again use my CLS method.
/b]
Hey what up traders welcome to the COT data and Liquidity report. This is a big part of my FX Trading. Im always trying to trade with the Big players so knowing their positions is good thing.
Please be aware that institutions report data to the SEC on Tuesdays and data are reported on Fridays - so again we as retail traders have disadvantage, but there is possibility to read between the lines. Remember in the report is what they want you to see, that's why mostly price reverse on Wednesday after the report so their cards are hidden as long as possible. However if the trend is running you can read it and use for your advantage.
I created this simple free indicator which you can find in the my scripts. It's highlighting the day of the real report - Tuesday.
Here is the tip if the level has confluence with the high volume on COT it can be strong support / Resistance.
Analysis done on the Tradenation Charts
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
BSE - BSE Ltd. (45 mins. chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-termBSE - BSE Ltd. (45 mins. chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {volatility risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 3
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 6480
Entry limit ~ 6370 to 6430 (Avg. - 6400) on April 23, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 6500 (+1.56%; +100 points)
2. Target limit ~ 6700 (+4.69%; +300 points)
Stop order limit ~ 6300 (-1.56%; -100 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
Gold price heading below 3300⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have signaled openness to potential interest rate cuts, a stance that could limit further upside in the US Dollar (USD) and lend support to the non-yielding Gold price. Additionally, growing concerns over the economic repercussions of President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff measures, combined with ongoing geopolitical instability, continue to bolster the appeal of safe-haven assets. In this environment, the broader bias for gold remains tilted to the upside, urging caution for traders considering bold bearish positions.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
continue sideways, price range fluctuates around 3300
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3382- 3384 SL 3389
TP1: $3370
TP2: $3360
TP3: $3350
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3294 - $3292 SL $3287
TP1: $3300
TP2: $3310
TP3: $3320
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
JUP Predicts The Future: Crypto Bull Market Certainty Level 100%Jupiter has been rising for 10 days straight. This hasn't happen since October 2024. The bullish bias has been revealed. This is a type of bullish consolidation. The action is back above the 11-March low. Yesterday's session wicked below, closed above. Bullish, bullish, bullish all across.
Jupiter is preparing for a nice jump.
Good evening my fellow Cryptocurrency special-genius trader, it gets better everyday.
What if... Right!
Do you agree? Ok!
The support/resistance dynamic is back in full view.
The continued growth is a very much strong revealing signal should be paid attention to. It works.
Signals like these are simple signals but can reveal everything, it works really good trust me.
Ten days straight moving up. There is a red candle in-between the rise but this does not nullify in any way the rise. It works. Trust me.
It is actually quite entertaining when you see the results.
Making the prediction is nothing, it is great when you see it work.
So these are the signals, simple signals and yet it works.
Watch! Jupiter (JUPUSDT) is set to grow. Deduction/conclusion arrived at based on the chart. 100% the chart even predicts political events. It has been proven many time now in the recent weeks. See this...
Major events will develop that will propel the market up. Political events, why? The charts are bullish and pointing up to massive growth. If any event is needed, the market creates it so soon these events will be public and the market grows.
The market grows because it is set to grow. It has already been decided it is already true. It only needs to show in the prices and charts.
It is like you apply for a job and you get it but you have to wait 3 months before your entry date. It is a done-deal, it is a secured deal it cannot be cancelled but you aren't still working but you know for certain. Something like this but with a higher level of certainty.
Say you have a family member 99 years old with terminal cancer and ready to go. The news are in, the data is in and everybody knows but the person is still alive. It is a done deal, it hasn't happened but will happen. Something like this. Things can be certain and yet not materialized. These things happen.
It can happen that it has been decided, it is known for a fact and sure the market will grow. Yet, it hasn't happened but this doesn't mean that it is questionable, some things can't be changed.
It can't be avoided and nobody wants to avoid it. It is the other way around, most of the majority want it to happen and it will happen. No other scenario is possible that's how the world works.
Tomorrow, it is day. Later, the night. Repeat over and over, nothing can avoid this reality from happening. Times change, it is the same.
One day it is the banks, the next day it is Crypto.
Namaste.
gold bearishGold spot prices are showing signs of strength after dipping into the $3190 liquidity zone and holding firm. The bearish momentum has stalled as price tapped into a key area of interest, suggesting that smart money may have engineered a liquidity sweep to fuel a potential bullish reversal.
GBPUSD Review - The fall whilst the Brits sleep?In this video I go through a GBPUSD review of Tuesday/Wednesday, Thursday (yesterday), and the possibilities for Friday (today).
Enjoy!
- R2F Trading
USDCHF – Bullish Target in SightUSDCHF – Bullish Target in Sight
🟢 Long Bias | 🎯 Target: 0.83056 | ⏳ Deadline: April 30
Momentum remains intact after a clean rally. With price consolidating beneath resistance, I’m watching for a push toward the 0.83056 key target.
I'm in. Will hold and add position as needed.
💡 All trades can be replayed on TradingView for confirmation.
No financial advice, just sharing my trades.
#USDCHF #ForexSetup #MarketAnalysis #GlobalHorns #TradingView
S&P 500 futures/SPY idea and simple parallel channel crossSo as you can see by a few minutes worth of doodling...there seems to be an interesting dilemma. While a lot points to a new breakout, be it news that literally changes nothing structurally for actual customer buying or future sales....it's said to be a new bull run.
Yet, just a simple glance at a modified volume chart in relation to the E-mini above....there is something funny arising. Almost like treasury yields-to-bonds, as the market slides the volume increases. And it concaves as it goes back up. But the right most part of the chart doesn't seem to agree with that. You are ripping higher but your volume is increasing. (Those yellow bars are sell volume, and if they look patchy in spots, it's because the buy volume is colored black. This is done to emphasize a trend and to see more clearly if it is strong for buying or strong for selling.)
Back to the idea at hand....so just a possibility- but what if that volume going down while the recent slide on Monday occurred was positioning of a certain group who would get their que from a certain announcement from the Musky-Man. Ergo, the sells aren't really happening but the buying is, so that way when everyone jumps in they unleash selling. To which the concave occurs on the market pullback and the convex, going up, occurs as the market heads up.
It's not some new thing (volume up on highs and down on lows) since the principle of down to highs and up on lows holds true from the ATH of February to the bounce in middle MArch....so it's not some special case- unless you consider games being played as the explanation for why the pattern which holds true even in past '22 and '23 downturns becomes broken.
Now...for the super stretch idea...and I am not predicting so much as throwing out an idea to which I would have done if I was still around the hedge fund kids I was around in high school:
Get people used to buying high rips by setting up the first test balloon of the Monday "fake news 90 day tariff relief"....which can be denied and then used to observe market reaction and to get any last people shaken off the stocks to get the insiders- that massive option call just hours before his Truth Social post is just super coincidental eh?- positioned to take advantage of his future post as the "signal".
Well, it worked great cause stocks ripped and everyone bought all the way to the 50% or so retrace of the previous day high. But interesting that such massive put positions for the April 17 monthly options expiration were seemingly honored and paid out coming into Easter- not too much of a fight on that one. (Well maybe a test to see for the weekend option expiration tomorrow which is 2 days after Tesla earnings). So now- there comes the Tesla earnings right after a slight dip in the market just before the big day, and funny enough the shorts are nowhere to be squeezed...kinda seems like that Wednesday "good time to buy" comment really pushed them off from going balls deep on Tesla shorts for this Wednesday afternoon. Nothing happened so the positions the hypothetical insiders purchased aren't moving and now there is a problem....no squeeze and no stock rally. So now the Musker is informed to give his message mere minutes before the Trump-man gives his about some more unverified tariff goodies. Now you have your sudden move and everything starts going up. So if everyone is buying in and you are heading to a new top...why is the sell volume in that chart falling before that Tesla earnings when the market is slipping....but increasing while the market is rising....going against pretty principled norms.
Well...that's where China comes in saying they have no idea of any meetings- which the panic button of "They...no need to explain who they are" comment is thrown out to keep the markets rising right into Google earnings...which says that the cloud is dead and only ads make money- (but every consumer giant just said sales are down and consumer interaction is down and that tariffs are going to hit them hard...but never mind that...nor that cloud is like AI related and Amazon cancelled Data Center leasing...and that Intel and AMD are pounded even though literally every computer needs one of those two to work...that doesn't matter).
So we are left with tomorrow...or today depending on when you read this....You have a cross at that exact price and the fib lines all correlate pretty well to price action up and down the chart. So my thought is this....and crazy hat wearing time....
What if you sold off gold to cover your shorts and to add new puts on for this weekend into early next week- specifically Tuesday of next week- and then when you suddenly let fly some China tariff related news and get the big 4 news groups to sound bad about it...rather than blocking all the damage that containers sitting across the ocean do when not on a boat each day, you have a beautiful thing as the Trump-man likes to say. You have bought stocks at the lows before the Tesla earnings...then sold them off in the last ~16 hours and then placed puts on- since they have been increasing in volume and open interest every day leading up to tomorrow and next Tuesday- to which you get paid twice in like one week.
Again...just a playful idea...and worth noting that the treasury yields haven't budged from 4.8 or 4.3 from the 20y and 10y respectively and $6 some trillion comes due for rollover on or by June the 20th....so if you want that to be like 2% I think...you got to do some nasty stuff. (My favorite would be to take retirement accounts and pensions and replace them with treasury holdings instead of stocks...a brilliant idea and will surely get that yield down in a hurry- you know--cause for like America or whatever--or as the kids say-- for reasons.)
But that's just me and that's what I would do if handed a decent chunk of change and the cell #s of Musker and the other boys at that inauguration. Could be all wrong...but it's a little fun story no? Gives you a chuckle if I'm wrong and your accounts go up- or scares the hell out of you if right, since it means people like me who used to be amongst the 3 letter crews and hedge bros do this kinda thing on the regular.
Anywho...here is a closer look at that death cross or that "freedom cross", whichever one gets Detroit back to motor city and Bethlehem Steel back in production again- oh wait- that isn't possible- cause you know "they" or something.
Nifty – Bullish Structure | AMD Pattern FormingNifty is currently maintaining a bullish market structure with a clear sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). An Accumulation-Manipulation-Distribution (AMD) pattern is forming, indicating potential for a bullish continuation.
As long as the HL structure holds, my view remains bullish.
