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Is this recent rally a bull rebound of a bear retracement? To make an assessment if the market has turned bear, during the closing second quarter on 29th June 2022, we discussed on the topic “Using S&P to Identify Recession and on the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago the tutorial posted here, we studied and expecting this current rebound, topic “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”. In today’s tutorial, I thought of doing a recap between the two videos and explore if the current market and its development, if it is a bull rebound heading to break another new all-time high or if it is a bear retracement? I have included both the video links below. Before we get into this topic, please also take some time to read through the disclaimer in the description box below. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Tutorial example: Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 0.25 = US$0.50 1.00 = US$2 (12,900 - 11,900) x US$2 =US$2,000 (Note: Opposite is also true) • During the closing second quarter in June, on 29 Jun - “Using S&P to Identify Recession • On the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago - “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by konhow
30
What to include in your Trading RoutineMost people dive straight into trading without knowing how or why. They also don’t plan ahead. This is why most people are unsuccessful at trading. Having a well developed plan is KEY 🔑 to trading success! Let’s see what in must need in trading routine: 1. Trading Journal 📝 You won’t improve without a trading journal, your whole trading routine is built around your trading journal. The time you’re trading without one is wasted time period. 2. Backtest 📌 Do it every week at least once. Backtesting increase: - Confidence in your strategy; - Self-confidence to execute it; - Discipline (when you’re confident about your strategy, you are more likely to respect it.) Tip: Journal your backtested setups. 3. Weekly mental preparation ⏳ Write down things like: - What are the things you want to work on. - What are the habits you want to improve. - What are your goals for next week. 4. Technical preparation 💡 - Make your analysis. - Study the different price scenarios. - Prepare your trading ideas. You can do it weekly or daily depending on your needs. 5. Weekly performance analysis 🎭 Open the psychology section of your trading journal: - What did you do well? - What could have you done better? - What lessons did you learn? - Realization about yourself, your strategy and the market. 6. Wins and Losses analysis 🌓 - Open the charts of your trades one by one. - Read your mistakes - Write down at least one lesson you took from each trade. Tip: always take a screenshot at the exact entry point of each trade. This allows you to mitigate the hindsight bias and develop your pattern recognition skills. 7. Writing ✏️ Write down your thoughts and emotions on bad days. It helps you understand your mind and gives you clarity. It’s a great way to focus on the process and be patient. 8. Activities outside of trading 🚴🏻♀️🚣🏻♂️ You’re going to lose motivation and belief with your trading many times, you need to have extra motivational source. If you only rely on your trading results to feed your persistence, you ganna give up easily. If you like this content help me grow ❤️🌱 I’d be happy you add more tips to learn from each other
Education
by parissap
14
Palantir - The King of Cyberspace Security is on SalePalantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) is one of the most contentious business. More than 10 times TTM revenues, the company's market valuation is now floating at over $20 billion. The business is also notorious for diluting its stock and has never produced a net profit in a single quarter. Palantir has been among the worst-hit equities since the growth catastrophe started last year, which should come as no surprise. The company's share price has started to rebound despite an enormous decline of 70% from peak to trough. Palantir Financials Palantir was once the talk of the market when the stock was trading at $20 or $30, but not anymore. After the IPO, the equity was significantly diluted, and stock-based compensation is still under fire today. The market is voting "No" on Palantir because growth and high multiple stocks are less popular now than they were for the most of 2021 and because a potential recession is on the horizon. Palantir is not an exception to the general IPO phenomena of dilution and SBC compensation. Instead of focusing on previous sales, let's consider the company's revenue expansion and earning potential. Let's also think about Palantir's distinct, leading, and dominant market position and how it can affect possible future growth and profitability. Additionally, Palantir has a huge growth runway and a sizable profit margin potential, making the company one of the greatest investments in the long term. Palantir's dominating position as a government contractor is one of its most distinctive features. Through its Gotham programme, the firm offers software solutions to several governmental organisations. The American military, intelligence community, and police are just a few of Palantir's government customers. More precisely, Palantir's connected databases, data mining tools, analytical software, and much more are used by the FBI, DOD, CIA, NSA, and many other organisations. Palantir also provides services to the FDA, the NHS, and other organisations. Despite actively expanding its corporate division, Palantir nevertheless received 51% of its income from federal contracts in the most recent quarter. Palantir benefits from the government providing a sizable chunk of its earnings because of the government's well-known propensity for extravagant spending. The growth numbers for Palantir are outstanding. Revenue increased by 30% YoY, commercial revenue increased by 51% YoY, U.S. commercial revenue increased by 131% YoY, and client base increased by 87% YoY. While Palantir's governmental business continues to be its core, we now witness strong commercial business growth. Furthermore, as the business develops, we expect continue to notice strong growth from the company's corporate and government clients. The business forecasts an adjusted operating margin of about 28 percent for the whole 2022 fiscal year and 30 percent yearly growth or more until 2024. Palantir is a business with rapid growth. Therefore, it is not necessary for it to be profitable at this time. The business must put its efforts on expanding business, gaining market share, and establishing prospects for future success. Palantir should, nevertheless, be incredibly profitable when the time comes. The company's gross profit rose by 31% year over year during the most recent quarter. Palantir's operational costs rose only 2.5 percent YoY at the same period. As a result, the operational loss for the third quarter was substantially smaller than the same period last year—just $38.9 million as opposed to $114 million. Additionally, Palantir's gross margin for the preceding quarter was a staggering 78.7 percent, surpassing the 78.2 percent from a year before. As a result, Palantir is becoming more successful. Operating income, net profit, and EPS will considerably grow if the company's gross profit keeps rising and begins to greatly surpass operating expenditures. Palantir's share count increased by around 11% YoY, as can be seen. Palantir is still diluting as a result, although far less so than it was when the business first went public. Palantir only issued 476 million shares when it went public. The corporation now has more than 2 billion outstanding shares, nevertheless. However, a large portion of the devaluation took place early, practically directly after the business became public. The corporation had almost 1.8 billion shares after becoming public, which was around six months ago. Since then, SBC expenses have decreased dramatically and are probably going to keep decreasing as the business grows. Furthermore, rising SBC is not a Palantir-exclusive issue but a typical IPO phenomenon. SBC is down roughly 22% YoY, despite much increasing revenues and profits. This scenario suggests that the downward trend in SBC costs will persist. In addition, if the costs associated with SBC are taken into account, Palantir should become astonishingly lucrative. With SBC excluded, the company's cost of revenue was just roughly $82.7 million, which suggests that Palantir had a gross margin of over 81 percent. Palantir's operational income last quarter would have been around $111 million without SBC, showing an operating margin of about 25.1%. When SBC charges are factored out, the corporation would have had a little net profit of around $10 million. The firm posted an adjusted EPS of $0.02, demonstrating that it can be profitable right now despite expanding revenues by more than 30% year on year. As a result, we may conclude that Palantir has the potential to grow increasingly lucrative. As the company's revenues and gross profit climb, so should its operational expenditures, yet the SBC continues to fall dramatically in relation to the company's revenues. As a result, Palantir's profitability indicators should increase considerably over the next few years. There is widespread fear about the impending recession. However, Palantir is in a unique situation because the majority of their revenue comes from government contracts. Palantir's corporate clients are unlikely to diminish their reliance on the business's services, as the company provides important solutions in data analytics, cybersecurity, and other critical areas. As a result, even in a downturn, Palantir's growth should continue, making it one of the strongest long-term investments in the market right now. Palantir is expected to generate $2.7 billion in revenue next year, putting its forward P/S multiple at around 7. Palantir, on the other hand, is a dominant and high-growth business with exceptional profitability potential. When the stock dropped to $6, it was voted down to a 5x forward sales multiple. Palantir is now selling at roughly 7 times projected sales at $10, but it might trade at a substantially higher sales multiple in the future. Many firms with substantially less potential for growth trade at far greater revenue multiples. The 6-7 times forward sales multiple predictions are reasonable given Palantir's strong growth and huge profitability potential. Microsoft (MSFT), a software corporation with far slower growth, trades at approximately eight times projected revenues. Nvidia (NVDA), a growth business with substantially slower growth, trades at about 12 times forward sales expectations. Furthermore, many other growing firms are selling at far greater multiples than 10 times revenues. In the future years, Palantir might fetch a P/S multiple of 6-7 or much higher, potentially making the company one of the finest buys for the next decade. As a result, the market will most likely begin assessing the company's shares rather than voting for it in the next years, and Palantir's share price will certainly skyrocket. They are one of the few publicly listed companies capable of withstanding Geopolitical shocks and will most certainly gain from higher military expenditure by the United Nations and its European allies, as the recent NATO Summit in Madrid demonstrated member states' readiness to significantly expand their defence budgets. Palantir's space and geospatial intelligence capabilities are also likely to gain new clients as a result of its performance on the Ukrainian battlefield.
PLong
by EQTSHARES
3
Don't Stop Believing in Tesla - Earnings Report ProjectionTesla's stock has fallen by roughly 40% this year as a result of oversold conditions. During the negative market phase, Tesla has experienced a greater decrease than the typical corporation, making its value appear more and more appealing. In addition, the business will undoubtedly outperform profits projections when it reports earnings on 20th July, and likely announce a stock split next month. Tesla also has an interesting new product that should hit the market next year, so the business may continue to outperform even if the slowdown lasts for a while. As the firm develops, Tesla is expected to continue exceeding consensus profit projections. As a result, Tesla's stock is now rather affordable, should be purchased during periods of weakness, and is expected to increase significantly over the next few years. Tesla Financials Tesla has not seen the dramatic EPS adjustments that the majority of corporations have. Forecasts for 2023 EPS are currently greater than they were quarter ago. This scenario shows that analysts may believe that earlier EPS predictions may have been overly low and that the firm may weather a slump better than other companies. Finally, this dynamic suggests that a temporary slowdown is unlikely to have an effect on Tesla's longer-term profitability. In the rapidly developing EV market, Tesla continues to dominate. Tesla is the holy grail of electric vehicles, therefore even while a recession might temporarily have a small negative influence on the company's expansion, it is unlikely to have a long-term impact. The Ukraine conflict, rising oil prices, and inflation have all contributed to sky-high gas and electricity costs. Record-high gas costs will likely encourage more people to purchase electric vehicles, with Tesla standing to gain the most from this trend. Therefore, over the long run, a recession should have little impact on Tesla's growth, profitability potential, and stock price trajectory, making the stock a great buy on any recession-related dip as we move forward. If the shareholders accept it on August 4th, Tesla will split its stock once more. The majority of the time, stock splits are a positive move for equities. Tesla's share price would decrease from over $700 to approximately $277 as a result of the planned 3-1 split, making them more accessible to investors. Tesla P.E Ratio Tesla released its manufacturing and delivery figures. In the previous quarter, the business delivered 16,162 Model S/X vehicles and 238,533 Model 3/Y automobiles. The tremendous 750 percent increase in Model S/X sales was the first item that stood out in the positive data. Last year, there were some worries that the Model S/X car market would be oversupplied or that demand was waning. However, there is a substantial demand for Tesla's more expensive cars. Due to Tesla's temporary manufacturing prioritising of Model 3/Y automobiles, sales last year decreased. This sales pattern suggests that Tesla should continue to make significant profits from the luxury vehicle sector in the upcoming years. Positive Cashflow Tesla recorded a net income margin of 17.7 percent for last quarter. The most lucrative (conventional) carmaker Toyota (TM), which just recorded a gross revenue margin of 19 percent and a net income margin of 9 percent, is far less profitable than Tesla in terms of profitability indicators. Honda (HMC) has a gross profit margin of roughly 20% and a net profit margin of about 5%. Most of the time, their American equivalents have even lower profitability margins, with General Motors (GM) recently claiming a gross margin of roughly 15% and a net income margin of about 7%. Although the average expectations for Tesla's future P/E ratio are only around 40, the business may have stronger than expected profits in the current quarter and in 2023. Higher-end 2023 EPS forecasts range up to roughly $21.37, and Tesla has outperformed consensus estimates by an average of 27.9 percent over the past four quarters. Given how consistently Tesla exceeds consensus expectations, many analysts may still be underestimating the company's profitability potential. Therefore, Tesla's EPS statistics may continue to grow more quickly than expected. The Tesla Semi should also start selling by the end of the next year. As Semi truck deliveries and bulk production get underway, Tesla's revenue will probably experience a significant increase. Tesla's future P/E ratio appears to be excessively low given the company's rapid growth pace. Therefore, in the future, Tesla's forward P/E might increase to about 37 and stay in the 32 to 40 area. In the upcoming years, Tesla's EPS should rise significantly, and as the company develops, its stock price may rise significantly.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by EQTSHARES
56
Disney is a realm of escapism - Recession Proof & Cash Flow RichThe Walt Disney Company recorded negative operating cash flow for the first quarter of the year. Even in the second quarter, cash from operating activities was still outpaced by investments in diverse activities. This was mostly caused by a lack of action during the coronavirus demand destruction in fiscal year 2020. But now that the parks are reopened, there are less ramp-up requirements. The majority of Disney's movie ticket sales will result in revenue generation because the majority of the backlog of films has already been paid for. The free cash flow should significantly increase during the following quarters. Despite the most severe criticism, "Thor: Love & Thunder" is on track to surpass $500 million worldwide. The success of the movie was another evidence that the conventional approach is still effective. 10 Year TSR Value Disney's track record of making more money than it needs is quite extensive. As a result, advancements into further growth areas can still be made in the future. Disney may be a sizable business, but it has plenty of room to expand as long as there are measures in place to produce adequate cash flow. They have a strong economic moat. The brand is extremely well-known, and the market is now discounting the Disney+ streaming component of the company's operations as the excitement surrounding it fades due to Netflix's (NFLX) sluggish member growth. We have to consider that Netflix have peaked their user base. However, Disney+ have enough tier to grow their client base. Due to the parks being open again and new movies being released, cash flow is expected to increase significantly soon. In the long run, this corporation has a significantly more profitable method of producing films than many of its rivals. However, One of the biggest disadvantage of holding this stock is due to their high operating costs, Disney's value will increase to about twice what it is currently trading for if operating margins return to the mean of around 17%. As operating costs increased and park and cruise revenues decreased during the pandemic, Disney had to cut dividend payout. Undoubtedly, the dividend's reinstatement will be a bullish event that many are anticipating. Although market players despise dividend cutbacks, Disney's management at the time made a wise decision in doing this. Disney was able to leverage money from eliminating the dividend to make a splash in the streaming industry. However, it is in their best interests to compensate shareholders by resuming dividend payments in situations where the value of their firm is dwindling. The market seemed to be concentrating too much on downside risks, that continue to drive Disney's share price lower, despite the fact that revenue growth continued to rise. In the future, Disney's earning power might increase significantly, just like it did a decade ago. The stock might surge once more with an operating margin returning to regular levels of 17-21%. As the company's free cash flows and direct-to-consumer operations may grow, Disney has a lot of potential in the long run. Disney produced record EPS and nearly $10 billion in free cash flows in 2019. Now that the theatrical industry is recovering from COVID the company is expected to generate record breaking free cashflow. Total Revenue vs Total Operating Expenses They have already begun to report positive financial outcomes for its fiscal year 2022. Revenue increased from $31.86 billion last year to $41.07 billion this year, a 28.9 percent increase over the same period previous year. From $918 million to $1.57 billion, net income has grown by 71.5 percent. Operating cash flow increased from $1.47 billion to $1.56 billion, an increase of just 6%. However, if working capital adjustments were taken into account, it would have increased from $1.84 billion to $4.67 billion. That is a 153.7 percent increase from the previous year. Excellent Management & Strategic Growth over the years. People seek escapism during recessions, and Disney's content offers them hope. Every week, 80 million Americans went to the movies, even during the Great Depression and since then movie businesses have won the label of "Recession Proof", The movie business has generally been one of the few industries that has been able to retain its place in the market or even grow admissions, even in some of the worst economic downturns ever. This is a result of people's continued consumption behavior. Even if they were impacted by economic downturns, The release of "Avatar: The Way of Water" this year and Disney's 100th anniversary celebration in 2023 will boost the company's marketing efforts and help them generate more sales revenue.
NYSE:DISLong
by EQTSHARES
2
EURUSD SO PREDICTABLEThe INTERBANK Algorithm Price Delivery System has engaged the Macro Software and is reaching for Buy Side Liquidity BSL. It has 60 Pips to range therefore the snipe at the bottom was your trade. Once price broke the Morning Zone it was open SNIPE Season. 2AM look for a Push into the extremes for one of our key set ups for a SHORT Snipe. TIME & PRICE are the only indicators a Sniper needs because those two produce excellent and accurate Market Structure. Far Superior than simple SR lines. There MUST be a narrative to your trade set up or you don't have one. You're just chasing after the wind. As always NEVER over Leverage Trust your Trade Set Up. Have Fun!
TVC:DXYLong
by Master-Jedi-Trader
EURUSD Has ENGAGED Drop SequenceIn this set up EUR is heavy Bearish. The DXY is Breaking NORTH! This sequence is the fake out. The algorithm is reaching for sell side Liquidity before turning around and going Bullish rest of day unless we get a HUGE DROP off which will result in even a BIGGER trend. Double ADR even! Let's see how Price follows the script. The KEY is to NEVER over leverage. This does two important things: 1. You protect your account 2. You trade more calmly and more focused when you are NOT over leveraged. This will cause you to pull too soon and miss out on the move when it does happen and it will. Often times we are never wrong in our analysis; just EARLY. Always trust your trade set up because you are usually right. Don't let a PB throw you off your Snipe. Zone in on the Macro Move. This is where it all begins. Last but not least HAVE FUN! This is the only space where you get to make Money all day everyday so why not enjoy it! See you all on the other side of this trade. I AM PRO TRADING MADE SIMPLE
Short
by Master-Jedi-Trader
ECHO | GBPCAD - LONG OPPORTUNITYFinally back on tradingview, ready to bump some content for you guys. Here we have a combination of our SMC and intraday strategy on GBPCAD: This fair value gap alongside a nice local low should provide us with some room to move upwards. The pending around the 61 fib is the ideal place to take a long from. FX:GBPCAD - 61 fib level - FVG formation being placed around the significant fib upwards. - Overall bullish sentiment on gbp sterling pairs. ECHO
Long
by ECHOTRADINGGROUP
Beyond MeatThis is just an observation: Beyond Meat (BYND) is breaking above its 4h EMA exp ribbon. It also just broke above its displaced daily EMA. These are two very bullish trend reversal signals. Regardless of fundamentals, these indicators are showing that there are no more sellers left and the trend may soon reverse. When everyone is still super negative about an asset, but the asset's chart shows that it is beginning to outperform the market, that's when you buy. Charts never lie. It is a fact that BYND has been outperforming the broader market since May making higher highs and higher lows. Now it's showing signs of an actual breakout. Only time will show if this will become a sustained breakout. Huge congrats to @Chartguru1 for calling the bottom on this several weeks back!
NASDAQ:BYND
by SpyMasterTrades
5
War Tech Long & ShortThis is a crazy idea for the TradingView's 1st July 2022 Long&Short Competition entry. Long Germophobic War Technology: NASDAQ:AERC We're betting in the success of the FDA Clearance provided after review of patented germicidal UV-C LED Air Purification Technology from AeroClean. It was proven effective at eliminating harmful airborne microorganisms. The projected Earnings Per Share (EPS) looks great for the long term. Short Human War Technology: NYSE:HEI We're betting in the overpriced HEICO Corporation PE ratio of 46.5x against its peer average 27.3x and also its low Return on Equity 13.4%. This long & short is asymmetric and should be unpaired when NYSE:HEI confirms the market balanced its price with its sector peers. Currently this pair is under 0.09 ratio which means the asymmetry is much stronger for the long run at 1.00 ratio target (diamond hands will be rewarded accordingly).
ALong
by danalec
14
Long BTCUSDT A lot of traders try to be right after I warned about the manipulation and some refused to listen and give into whales manipulation. After btc hit the price of 31700, it went back to the whales support at ~29k , it will tempt people to sell again and trap sellers at support. After making an ABC correction, Bitcoin will now move up to form wave 3 , please do not short it and become food for whales. But long it instead. We should forms support again and go back up since there is upcoming USD CPI news. Hence, I am expecting a sideway move again to try bottom sellers at support and getting excited that we will go to 25k . The whales are tempting you to short bitcoin so that they can push the prices up by doing this sideways movements. After the H4 had formed a leading diagonal based on wave principle, it make this sideways movement for people to think that it will go down further and tempt people to short. Then, it went up as predicted but some shorters and smart guy will sell it thinking that it is a bear flag and got rekt. Do not be deceived by the whales manipulation. This manipulation by whales are food for them as retails traders getting liquidated easily. It is trying to make you think that we are going down, so that you will be shorting the support here. But , Do not get deceived by the whales!!!!! I realized everytime the whales push it back down to the demand, they will do this type of manipulation. The rectangle shows the strong demand zone at 29k whereby the broken resistance turned support and now we are back in this area. This is because they are accumulating shorts and piling up their btc spot positions for it to move up further. The whales are accumulating. It is trapping breakout traders to short here, this will bottom here. Long btc . Sick of this sideway obvious manipulation by whales. A lot of people had lost money buying optimism, lunc, luna and investing in scam coins and wanted to recover their losses, Whales had been defending this 29k level multiple times. Everytime, it hits this level, it will bounce back. Everytime, it drops below 29k , it will rebounce back, this shows a sign of strength where whales are accumulating. This might be your last chance to buy bitcoin at the dip before going to 100k. ( long term target). But first, the short term target is 33.4k as price target. The whales will breakout traders thinking it will go down but it will go up. Do not short this but long instead, the manipulation is too easy to be spotted. This is very bullish , long bitcoin and take profit at 100k. To the moon. This should be the macro bottom. Simple whales with their obvious manipulation. Hence, btc should moon from here and target 38k . First target should be 34k . On a higher time frame, it made a impulse and ABC correction, soon it will moon and everyone will get rich like WOW?! This is not a signal and do not follow but a trade idea. Use your brain to trade and don't follow blindly! Disclaimer - This analysis alone DOES NOT warrant a buy or sell trade immediately. Before you enter any trade in the financial market, it is very important that you have a proper trading plan and risk management approach
Long
by Future_Wei
3
You Should Have Only Been Looking To Short ETH Since Dec 2021Traders!!!!! You have to give more love to your higher timeframe charts in order to see the full picture. As with a lot of crypto tickers, they have the same type of pattern brewing here. What you see here is a bear leg down, a 2 month reversal and then a 2nd bear leg down, which now has been selling off for 2 months now. From a longterm POV, I don't see a clean entry to go long while we are in the midst of this 2nd bear leg. However, there is always some type of buy setup on a the smaller timeframes. Day Traders & Scalpers will do what they do. It's the investors who should be seriously hedging their portfolio!!
Short
by DayTraderEarl