BFXUSD
Bitfinex Bitcoin Trading IdeaThere is strong resistance at the 2220 level and an upper channel of 2530. I expect prices to bounce between these channels until the 10th July 2017.
The 5th July will determine the direction of any potential breakout, and future trading channel.
I suspect we will see a lower high of 2400, and the price will further decrease from there into the 2200 range.
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Tip : Don't get involved with BFX tokens72,339,809 tokens were issued and 35,712,790 are left. Probably quite a few of them have been converted into equity or RRT via Bank to the future.
0.7$ per token seems a lot to me and we are in overbought territory, but things are somehow looking good for BitFinex (which is quite weird). The Bitfinex team is very incompetent and it is a surprise to me that so many people bought these tokens or converted them into equity. Too many problems with their trading platform, plus massive hack were they lost more than 70M$.
The current valuation seems a bit high to me, but there are some factors that could explain why they are trading so high. People are still buying and want to convert these tokens into equity and have some exposure to the market. People might be buying as Chinese exchanges have stopped margin trading and have finally put fees, so people might turn to Bitfinex to use margin and low fees. These tokens, even though I find it terrible, can be used as a collateral and can also be traded with leverage.
The sentiment is that the price is going up, as most people are short these tokens, but this probably isn't a great indicator as the market is very illiquid. If something happens to Bitfinex, the price of these tokens can go down to 0, but even if you are short, how will you get your money if they are broke? There is limited upside, but a lot of room to fall.
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I think that investing in Bitcoin is much better than speculating on these tokens. Trading fee shares or exchange tokens, on an exchanges, is and will always be a bad idea.
Bitfinex Tokens breaking outInstead of breaking down short on the daily as I saw last week over the weekend on the swing timeframe 240 minute BFXUSD is breaking out long.
I did some research last night to get a grasp on exactly what the "value" of BFX tokens should be. Assuming that Bitfinex does not get hacked again, remains solvent, and repays their customers as promised then each BFXUSD is theoretically worth 1.00. Ergo, an "investment" in BFX tokens at 0.50 would yeild a 100% ROI over 5-6 years. This comes out to an annualized return of about 12%. Buying at 0.30 would yield 200% and 0.25 300%. The downside is a full loss so a smart strategy would be to take the 3:1 bet if BFXUSD ever hits 0.25.
Bitfinex Tokens setting up bearishA bearish Ichimoku cloud breakout is setting up on the Bitfinex repayment tokens. A bearish trend could form on the break of the consolidation which has a bottom around $0.50 and could retrace part of the premium move since inception. Lacking more data the best retracement would be the 61.8% Fib which matches with the immediate rally highs. Keep an eye out