Vale S.A. is riding the wave of optimism as the Brazilian stockVale S.A. is riding the wave of optimism as the Brazilian stock market rebounds, buoyed by China's economic stimulus and rising iron ore prices.
Vale S.A. has emerged as a frontrunner in the recent upswing of the Brazilian stock market, with shares soaring over 4.5% thanks to an increase in iron ore prices driven by renewed demand from China.
As the world's largest iron ore exporter, Vale stands to benefit significantly from China's stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing its economy. This positive momentum underscores Vale's vital role in Brazil's economy, reflecting broader trends in the commodities sector and showcasing investor confidence in the company's future performance amid ongoing global challenges.
Rewards
Price-To-Earnings ratio (5.3x) is below the BR market (9.9x)
Trading at good value compared to peers and industry
Analysts in good agreement that stock price will rise by 29%
Risk Analysis
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.8% per year for the next 3 years
Dividend of 11.58% is not well covered by free cash flows
BHP
BHP, Rio Tinto (commodities): Highly exposed to the prices of miBHP, Rio Tinto (commodities): Highly exposed to the prices of minerals and metals (iron, copper, coal). Their performance is closely tied to global demand, particularly in China.
Rewards
Trading at 27.1% below our estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 4.76% per year
Risk Analysis
Profit margins (14.1%) are lower than last year (23.8%)
Dividend of 5.17% is not well covered by earnings
Future of RIO, BHP and the sectorI have had a pretty large position in RIO and BHP since end of July 2022, I bought expecting the market to recover and for copper/iron demand to jump from the re-opening of China and the rest of the world. These positions have given me quite the return with their pretty high yields.
Having said this, we can see that the steam from the market's comeback has slowed down, copper, iron and ore prices in general have met some resistance and both RIO and BHP have taken a step back from their highs. I don't think there is much more gain to be made with these stocks even though their structure and their fundamentals are highly attractive.
I like to invest in one sector at a time, trying to spot which one will be the next to glow up. I think the mining and refining sector has had it's run. Therefore, I'll most probably be exiting my positions in both these companies after collecting dividends and the most probable upside from the upcoming earnings.
Extra:
I am mostly exiting my position because of what I said above, but I've slowly started to consider the rising tensions between China and the western world. Though sanctions would be an economical blunder for everyone in play, having your biggest consumers be in a cat fight is certainly not preferable for business.
Waiting for confirm $DJI, plus other positions, 50% cash nowNO GAP $DJI UP so what now?
Looks like there's still momentum, it's early in day
Yesterdays HANGING MAN is warning sign, NOT a reason to go short, let's see how day fares
Waiting for CONFIRMATION
$ATVI is our largest position, rolled 1/2 $TWTR $ there
$BHP
#GOLD #SILVER
Bought $VZ last week
Own $INTC @ 28
$AMC last week
Still have trailer $LEU
Still hodl $CLX $MPLX $KHC
Cash in major account is 50%
In others it's bit less
No "day trading/aggressive" $ used
BHP Australian Iron Ore OutlookASX:BHP trending downwards with weak economic output from Chinese construction activity. Expecting a pull-back to ~$30-31 before a potential reversal - conditional on COVID lockdowns easing in China and stimulus measures gaining traction. China's industrial production has been trending upwards since May 2022 with YoY August 2022 to 4.2%, compared to July's 3.8% .
tradingeconomics.com
BHP Group to explore new territory of $53 per share?This week is one of the busiest for the Australian Securities Exchange, with many of its biggest names delivering their respective earning reports. Among those reporting is the country’s largest mining company, BHP Group (ASX: BHP). BHP are expected to deliver their FY2022 results on 16 August 2022.
In addition to BHP’s results, the miner announced an AU $8.4 billion to acquire OZ Minerals (ASX: OZL) last week. As OZ Minerals have already rejected the take-over offer, additional rounds of bids will likely follow over the next week or two.
The monthly chart indicates that BHP is currently in a bullish trend and has tested a key resistance just above $48 a share twice in the past month and a half.
BHP is currently trading inside a parallel channel, and it looks like it might be about to bounce from the support, in confluence with the 50-DMA.
Fibonacci extension levels indicate that the price might reach an all-time high of $53, if bullish fundamentals continue.
From the perspective of the daily time frame, BHP looks a little more vulnerable with the suppression of Iron Ore prices, one of its primary exports. It was only last month that the mineral rebounded from a multi-month low, from $101 USD/T to $110 USD/T but is still contending with the dark clouds hanging over the Chinese construction sector. However, Iron Ore is mor eon the side of oversold rather than overbought according to the RSI indicator.
BHP Group to explore new territory of $53 per share?This week is one of the busiest for the Australian Securities Exchange, with many of its biggest names delivering their respective earning reports. Among those reporting is the country’s largest mining company, BHP Group (ASX: BHP). BHP are expected to deliver their FY2022 results on 16 August 2022.
In addition to BHP’s results, the miner announced an AU $8.4 billion to acquire OZ Minerals (ASX: OZL) last week. As OZ Minerals have already rejected the take-over offer, additional rounds of bids will likely follow over the next week or two.
The monthly chart indicates that BHP is currently in a bullish trend and has tested a key resistance just above $48 a share twice in the past month and a half.
BHP is currently trading inside a parallel channel, and it looks like it might be about to bounce from the support, in confluence with the 50-DMA.
Fibonacci extension levels indicate that the price might reach an all-time high of $53, if bullish fundamentals continue.
BHP - FUNCHARTS: Should we buy the dip?Note: Funcharts are interesting charts I have found that offer a potentially unique perspective on a stock. Sometimes I’ll throw something out there that you might find controversial or wrong headed. If that’s the case your 2 cents worth is most welcome.
BHP has sure been belted, but should we catch a falling knife?
- Let's take a basic look at BHP using a very short term strategy. It involves using a strategy called Supertrend Strategy with a 3 period ATR input and an ATR length of 1.5 times.
- Firstly, I've flipped it upside down, so we get a buy signal when the trend changes to down and a sell signal when the trend changes to UP
- Now, next step, Applying this strategy to BHP, take a look at the performance report for Long Trades and Short Trades using the Performance report TAB. Long Trades Buy the Dip , Short Trades Sell the Rally
- Looking at Long Trades, 66% of the time it was profitable to Buy a short term dip on BHP and wait for the trend to change back to up, after which you exited the long position. The profit fact was 1.77. No stop was used in the analysis.
- It was also marginally profitable to sell short term uptrends in BHP, meaning trend of less than 30 days didn't persist all that often.
- What's the verdict? Buying short term weakness in BHP and selling short term strength has made money in the past. BHP is typically a very choppy stock.
I hear what you're saying, you'd like to know if buying the current dip we are in will result in a profit? Based on this analysis BHP will usually stage some sort of rally in a downtrend and you would have make money 66% of the time historically. But looking at external analysis I'm not overly confident just yet.
When I'd like to get in. Take a look at the blue histogram on the chart, if it goes below -10, I'd expect the odds to be pretty good for a rally of at least a few days, if not more. That means any further (significant) downside could be an opportunity for a countertrend mean reversion play. It'll be a day where there is blood on the streets for BHP.
62 Fe Iron Ore Outlook for Australian Iron Ore62% Fe CFR Iron Ore continues its bullish trajectory, closing in on USD160/tonne. The futures markets show a continued bullish trend.
Chinese News
China announces a 5.5% economic growth target for 2022, down from 6% for 2021. Premier of the State Council for the PRC, Li Keqiang, stressed the priority of 'economic stability' for 2022. In addition to this, the Premier announced that Covid-19 controls will be adjusted as needed to facilitate economic growth priorities. As the Winter Olympics have now wound down, steel production caps are gradually being eased and should continue over the next coming months. These are all bullish signals for Iron Ore prices.
Russian/Ukraine Conflict
The Russia/Ukraine war is not expected to cause any significant impacts on iron ore supply on global markets, accounting for less than 40million tonnes of production annually.
Australian Local News
Weather
As Australia is still in the backend of tropical cyclone season, there is a possibility of disruption to normal shiploading activities at Pilbara ports, which could have a short-term negative impact on supply.
COVID-19
Western Australia has opened their hard border to other states. This will help with the labour constraints that have plagued many Australian Iron Ore (IO) producers over the last 18 months as there were significant hurdles to obtain skilled/specialist labour to assist with both preventative and corrective maintenance outages across mining sites in the Pilbara. Ideally, over the remaining fiscal year, we should see increased reliability in output from mines and Ports and adherence to output schedules.
Long-Term Outlook for Iron Ore
Chinese regulators have flagged speculative trading and excessive stockpile hoarding of commodities including IO as the reason for exorbitant prices seen over the last 18 months as opposed to actual demand seen from steel mills. It is rumoured Chinese regulators will look at consolidating the fractured steel production market in China through mergers/acquisitions in a bid to increase bargaining power when it comes to raw material purchasing. Given the 2022 goal of 'economic stability', this does seem like a necessary strategy for China to guarantee fair prices for their major inputs for economic growth. Consolidating the local steel production market to match the high market concentration of Australian IO producers would theoretically allow for better prices for Chinese purchasers.
However, given the soured relationship between Australia and China over the last 24 months, it is unlikely the Australian government will take to this kindly, as commodities prices over the last 18 months have delivered record taxes and royalties to Australian governments and essentially kept their economy alive since the COVID-19 pandemic began. In response, in the wildest scenario, we may see Australia back a cartel formation amongst the major IO producers - BHP , ASX:RIO , ASX:FMG - as a way of securing their own economic security.
BHP about to fall. BHPImmediate targets 58, 52. Invalidation at 97.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
Flat on BHP. BHPIt is a strange looking B Wave if it is actually one, but we can see a divergence on the horizon. Even if this is an upward Wave C, which it can be, we are still looking at a bearish scenario. All in all, there might still be a "bump" of one kind or another before we travel South on this one.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
Is it time to consider RIO or BHP?
Fundamentally sound - both BHP and RIO
Iron ore prices testing key trend line support on longer-term charts Weekly
BHP is testing 0.618 and RIO 0.5 FIBs
Gold miners NST and NCM testing support but need more confirmation as they are sensitive to USD fluctuations.
Possible trading options:
Leaps
Put sell