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Bias

GBPUSD Daily Bias (18th Oct. 2024)It's been 3 consecutive weeks of the Cable printing bearish volumes and we anticipate the bears are not tired yet, at least not today. Looking at the daily TF, we can see the bears just broke out of last week's consolidation on Wednesday and seem to be doing a pullback to clear internal liquidity from the new range it created following the breakout PA. We've identified Wednesday's high as possible IRL (internal range liquidity) that can sponsor a further move to the downside. We'll keep our arms folded as we await today's delivery. GLGT!!! LloydFx, Trade Monastery.
Short
by LloydFX
2
SPX Highest Probability Price Targets & Analysis | Sep 23 - 27new price targets for next week (Sep 23 - 27) using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy. Topics: - This week's Targets Overall we use stats and data pulled from a wide array of Tradingview indicators and scripts so that I can have as much data as possible - even if it's unstructured or uncorrelated data. I then use AI and SOP's to systematically calculate a weekly and daily framework. My predictions are never 100% but ALL of them are mathematically proven to be 70%+ accurate historically or I wouldn't use them. Most indicators I use on my Data Dashboard chart has the stats in their associated boxes that I show during the recording if you'd like to verify yourself. Please leave me feedback as I am new to creating content and would like to improve. Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade. Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by DIY_Trades
USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch.USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Bias Expected – Key Factors to Watch (20/09/2024) As we analyze the USD/JPY pair on 20/09/2024, the outlook appears to be slightly bullish for this week and next. Several key drivers are pushing the U.S. dollar higher against the Japanese yen, creating an attractive opportunity for traders. In this article, we’ll break down the fundamental factors behind this forecast and highlight the elements influencing USD/JPY price action in the coming days. 1. US Dollar Strength Bolsters USD/JPY The strength of the U.S. dollar is a critical factor contributing to the bullish bias in USD/JPY. With the Federal Reserve signaling a commitment to maintaining high interest rates for an extended period, the greenback remains in demand. Fed officials have recently emphasized their concerns about persistent inflation, leading markets to believe that U.S. interest rates will stay elevated for longer than previously expected. This hawkish monetary stance, coupled with strong economic data, has made the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors. As a result, USD/JPY has been moving higher, with the strong dollar likely to continue exerting upward pressure on the pair. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY forecast, US dollar strength, Federal Reserve policy, interest rate hike, USD/JPY price action. 2. Dovish Bank of Japan Keeps the Yen Weak On the other side of the equation, the Japanese yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ has shown no signs of tightening monetary policy in the near term, despite global inflationary trends. Japan’s central bank continues to prioritize economic support, maintaining low interest rates while avoiding any drastic policy shifts. This dovish stance contrasts sharply with the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy, widening the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. This is a major driver of USD/JPY’s bullish outlook, as investors gravitate towards the higher-yielding U.S. dollar over the lower-yielding yen. Key SEO keywords: Bank of Japan policy, Japanese yen weakness, dovish BoJ, USD/JPY interest rate differential, yen depreciation. 3. Interest Rate Differentials Favor USD/JPY Upside One of the most important factors pushing USD/JPY higher is the widening interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan. While U.S. Treasury yields remain attractive, the yield on Japanese government bonds remains low due to the BoJ’s dovish policy stance. This gap in yields makes the U.S. dollar more appealing for investors seeking better returns. The widening interest rate gap is a key bullish signal for USD/JPY, as capital continues to flow into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone, and the BoJ remains accommodative, this dynamic will likely support the bullish bias for USD/JPY. Key SEO keywords: Interest rate differentials, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese bond yields, USD/JPY bullish outlook, capital flows into USD. 4. Japanese Economic Weakness Adding Pressure on the Yen Another factor supporting the bullish bias for USD/JPY is the ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy. Japan has struggled with slow economic growth and weak inflation, further justifying the BoJ’s cautious approach to monetary policy. Domestic consumption remains low, and Japan’s economic recovery has been uneven. As a result, the Japanese yen continues to face downside pressure, while the U.S. dollar benefits from stronger economic fundamentals. This divergence between the U.S. and Japanese economies adds to the case for a stronger USD/JPY in the coming weeks. Key SEO keywords: Japanese economic weakness, low inflation in Japan, weak yen, Bank of Japan policy, USD/JPY forecast. 5. USD/JPY Technical Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is showing signs of further upside. The pair has been testing key resistance levels, and if these levels are broken, we could see a more significant bullish move. The recent price action has shown strength, with USD/JPY consistently finding support at higher lows. Traders should watch for a potential breakout above these resistance zones, as it could signal further gains for USD/JPY. With strong fundamentals supporting the pair, the technical outlook aligns with the overall bullish bias. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY technical analysis, key resistance levels, USD/JPY price action, bullish trend, support and resistance. Conclusion: Bullish Bias Expected for USD/JPY In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors support a slightly bullish bias for USD/JPY over the next couple of weeks. The ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan, favorable interest rate differentials, and Japan’s economic challenges all point towards further upside potential for USD/JPY. Traders and investors should closely monitor these key drivers as they make their trading decisions. As always, staying updated on central bank policies, economic data, and technical signals will be crucial in navigating the USD/JPY price action during this period. Key SEO keywords: USD/JPY forecast, bullish bias, USD/JPY key drivers, US dollar strength, Bank of Japan policy, interest rate differential, USD/JPY technical analysis.
Long
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY: Slight Bullish Bias This Week? (19/09/2024)As of September 19, 2024, traders are closely monitoring the USDJPY pair for potential bullish momentum. Several fundamental factors and market conditions indicate that the pair might see a slight upward bias this week. Let’s dive into the key drivers affecting the USDJPY price action. 1. Diverging Central Bank Policies One of the primary influences on USDJPY is the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). - Federal Reserve’s Stance: As we move into the week, the market expects the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance or at least keep interest rates elevated. Although there’s some speculation about a possible pause in future rate hikes, the Fed's priority remains controlling inflation. This higher interest rate environment in the US makes the US dollar more attractive, pushing USDJPY upwards. - Bank of Japan’s Ultra-Loose Policy: In contrast, the BoJ continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, aiming to stimulate Japan’s sluggish economy. Despite rising inflation in Japan, the BoJ has shown little inclination to raise rates aggressively. This Interest rate differential between the US and Japan tends to weaken the yen, giving a bullish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Risk Sentiment in Global Markets Risk sentiment plays a crucial role in the movement of USDJPY. When global markets are in a risk-off mode, investors tend to flock to safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen, strengthening it. However, recent global economic data and financial news have maintained a somewhat stable risk appetite, leaning towards a risk-on environment. - US Economic Data: Recent reports from the US, such as better-than-expected retail sales and strong labor market data, continue to support the narrative of economic resilience. This fuels demand for the dollar and supports USDJPY’s bullish momentum. - Global Geopolitical Risks: While geopolitical tensions in regions like Europe and the Middle East may inject some volatility, there hasn’t been a major shift toward a risk-off sentiment that would heavily favor the yen. For now, dollar strength seems to dominate. 3. Japanese Economic Conditions Japan’s economy continues to struggle with low growth despite rising inflation. The BoJ’s consistent approach to stimulus, combined with the government's push for wage growth, has not yet translated into significant yen strength. Additionally, trade deficits in Japan, exacerbated by higher import costs, have weighed on the yen’s valuation. Without a major shift in BoJ policy or a significant improvement in Japan's economic performance, the yen will likely remain under pressure, keeping USDJPY on a slightly bullish path. 4. US Bond Yields US Treasury yields are another major factor driving the USDJPY. Higher US bond yields, often seen in response to tighter monetary policy and strong economic data, make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors. The upward trajectory of bond yields has been a persistent theme, reinforcing dollar strength. If this trend continues through the week, we can expect additional support for USDJPY. 5. Technical Indicators Looking at the technical analysis for USDJPY, the pair has been trading near key resistance levels in recent sessions. If the pair breaks above these resistance zones, we could see further bullish momentum. - Key Support and Resistance Levels: The 145.00 level has been a psychological support level for USDJPY, while 148.50 serves as resistance. Should the pair break beyond this resistance, it could trigger more buying pressure, pushing USDJPY higher. Conclusion: USDJPY’s Slight Bullish Bias In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to exhibit a slight bullish bias this week, primarily driven by: - Monetary policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ. - Favorable US economic data and rising Treasury yields. - Limited economic growth in Japan, with persistent trade deficits. - Stable global risk sentiment supporting the dollar over the yen. Traders should keep an eye on US bond yields, Fed comments, and any sudden shifts in risk sentiment or geopolitical events, as these could influence USDJPY’s trajectory throughout the week. --- Keywords: - USDJPY forecast - USDJPY bullish bias - USDJPY analysis September 2024 - USDJPY technical analysis - USDJPY key drivers - USDJPY trading strategy - USDJPY and Federal Reserve policy - USDJPY support and resistance levels - USDJPY risk sentiment - USDJPY bond yields impact
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDCHF: Recent Trendline Breakout, Temporarily BullishPrice has recently broken out of the (D) descending channel. It then pushed up to meet the (D) 50% Fib retracement level and proceeded to the downside to retest support. The price has now broken out of the (4H) downtrend line. I anticipate the price will retest and reject this level of support, and temporarily continue to the upside. **Rationale:** L1: ~ Break of channel (D) L2: ~ Retest of support (D) ~ Impulse wave completion L3: ~ Break of trendline (4H) ~ Retest of support **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. ** Annotations:** Categories: 1. Naming: (N1) 2. Labeling: (L1) 3. Forecasting: (F1) Sub-categories: 1. Naming: (N1.1) 2. Labeling: (L1.1) 3. Forecasting: (F1.1) --- #scalping #intraday
Long
by Forexity
3
AUDUSD: Multiple Rejections, Potential ReversalPrice has recently rejected this level multiple times. As-well-as multiple rejections and long-wick candlesticks, we have a rounding top chart pattern. I anticipate price will continue to reject this level and eventually breakout of the uptrend line, suggesting a bearish bias. **Rationale:** ~ Area of resistance ~ Multiple rejections ~ Long-wick candlesticks ~ Rounding top ~ Break of trendline --- **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. --- #scalping #intraday #daytrading
Short
by Forexity
The Value of an Unbiased BiasHi everyone, In this video I would like to discuss the value of having an unbiased bias when it comes to your analysis. It’s a dry subject with only a little chart illustrating near the end, but the boring stuff usually tends to be the most important topics when it comes to making it in this industry. I think most of us are familiar with the word ‘bias’. For those that aren’t, basically, in the context of trading, all it means is being in favour of the market moving either to the upside or downside. Your bias comes by means of your analysis and can be related to any timeframe. For example, I could have a bullish bias on a higher timeframe monthly chart, and a bearish bias for the lower timeframe daily chart. Now, you don’t HAVE to always have a bias. If you don’t know, then you simple don’t know, and there is nothing wrong with that, it would be unreasonable and nonsensical to think otherwise. But, sometimes your bias is wrong, which leads me to the topic of this video. I believe even for traders who don’t know how to form a technical bias, do so anyway in the form of psychological bias. Most of the time, we think the market is either going up or down, hence why we would even get into a long or short position. The tricky part is being flexible and changing your bias when the market is indicating you are clearly wrong. Smart Money knows how we think, and they know how to create sentiment in the marketplace. This is why its crucial to be able to change your bias on a dime, WHEN it is applicable, WHEN your analysis is showing you, and NOT for any other reason. The later you are to the party, the less pips you can catch, and the less likely your trades will win. As humans, we tend to cling to our beliefs. We block out any evidence indicating that we may be wrong about them. And when the market is showing us that we may be wrong, we just tell ourselves “Well now the market is offering me more pips, I have to get in on this move!”, hence one reason how you get long or short squeezes. - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
The most important chart in your trading career.Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well. My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart. In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end give a quick method for managing your ratio between Risk On/Off. As always, good luck in your trading, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
FRED:M2SL
by mrjones2020
6
RISK OFF FRIDAYThe King, Dollar Index, is in a Weekly BuySide SellSide Imbalance, BISI. Is this the end of a RISK OFF Spell for Risk Assets and a possible uptake for Dollar. 10 Year US Yields, US10Y, has led the way into its own Weekly BISI. Currency follows the Rates...so I would be highly cautions this RISK OFF FRIDAY Afterall, the Rates are not yet cut, the indication of possible rate cuts scheduled for next is not enough to push through the weekly SIBI, or is it? ...from Kong with LOVE...
EASYMARKETS:USXUSD
by KongSA
LONGTERM BIASEDDid not use any of indicators or any. Just wanted to know your thoughts on my longterm thinking about GU. If I am counting DXY weakening (FED possible decrease of Interest rates, now or later.. even if they leave them on same levels, USD loosing on value) plus England getting better on longterm. We can see possible rise in upcoming months and years. Let me know with your opinions or correct me. I will gladly change my mind if I am wrong. Do NOT forget this is D TF. Trade wisely and wish you only greens! J
Long
by jake1fx
Easiest way to determine BIASHere is an example of how to determine Bias for the day, or the open. Using the Open and Low or Open and High of the Daily candle in conjunction with the midnight opening price, we can easily determine Bias for the day, or for placing orders during the NY open. This example is shown on CL (Oil Futures) for a LONG BIAS. Just reverse for Short Bias. ( I mistakenly typed High when I meant Low in the example's text.) Adding this to an existing strategy or entry technique can be very powerful. I hope this is helpful for everyone. Happy Trading!
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by The_Lioness
9
Introduction to Behavioral FinanceIntroduction Behavioral finance is a captivating field that explores how human psychology affects financial decision-making. Traditional finance models assume investors are rational beings, making logical choices to maximize wealth. However, behavioral finance acknowledges that emotions, cognitive biases, and herd mentality often lead individuals to deviate from rationality. In this article, we delve into the intriguing world of behavioral finance, investigating the psychological factors that influence investors and traders and how these elements impact their decision-making processes. Cognitive Biases: The Subconscious Pitfalls Cognitive biases are ingrained mental shortcuts that our brains use to simplify information processing. Although helpful in everyday life, these biases can lead to significant errors in investment decisions. Common cognitive biases include: a. Confirmation Bias: Investors tend to seek and favor information that supports their existing beliefs or opinions, ignoring contradictory evidence. This leads to a skewed perception of market trends and an unwillingness to challenge preconceived notions. b. Overconfidence Bias: Many investors overestimate their ability to predict market movements, leading to excessive risk-taking and potentially significant losses. c. Anchoring Bias: This bias occurs when investors fixate on a particular piece of information (e.g., the purchase price of a stock) and use it as a reference point for future decisions, disregarding changing circumstances. d. Loss Aversion: Investors often fear losses more than they value gains, causing them to hold onto losing positions for too long in the hope of a turnaround, leading to missed opportunities. Emotional Influences on Decision-Making a. Fear and Greed: Fear and greed are potent emotions that profoundly impact investment decisions. Fear can trigger panic selling during market downturns, while greed may fuel excessive risk-taking in pursuit of high returns. b. Regret Aversion: Investors tend to avoid making decisions that might result in regret, such as realizing losses on investments. This reluctance may lead to inaction and failure to rebalance portfolios as needed. c. Herding Behavior: Humans are social creatures, and this extends to financial markets. Herding behavior occurs when investors follow the actions of others, even when it may not be in their best interest, potentially exacerbating market trends. d. Availability Heuristic: Investors often rely on easily accessible information or recent events to make decisions, leading to an overemphasis on recent market trends and news. Conclusion Behavioral finance sheds light on the critical role psychology plays in investment decision-making. Cognitive biases, emotions, and herd mentality can lead investors astray, affecting their financial well-being and market stability. Recognizing these psychological factors is essential for investors and traders seeking to make more informed and rational choices. As financial professionals continue to explore behavioral finance, the integration of psychology with traditional finance models promises to enhance our understanding of market dynamics and human behavior in the world of finance. By embracing the insights offered by behavioral finance, investors can take steps to minimize biases and make more objective and strategic investment decisions for long-term success.
Education
by financialflagship
Overconfidence BiasCauses of overconfidence bias In order to define overconfidence bias, it is important to understand some of the causes. These could include: Doubt avoidance. Very often, people don’t like moments of ambiguity or doubt. Overconfidence could work as a solution, with the overconfident person feeling confident in their abilities to feel sure, even in a situation where they should feel doubtful. Inconsistency avoidance. A lot of the time, people search for consistency when it comes to new ideas. There is a tendency to search for a link between previously held beliefs and new ones. This may lead people to hold onto their old ideas, even if new evidence contradicts them. The endowment effect. This phenomenon is where people overvalue things purely because they own them and could feed back into overconfidence. Hindsight bias. Hindsight bias, the false belief that they saw something happening before it happened when they didn’t could lead to overconfidence. Incentives. Sometimes, the higher an incentive someone has for doing something, the more determined they are to do it. This could make them believe they have made the right judgments and have the skills to get it done, even when they don’t. Types of overconfidence bias Overconfidence can come in various forms, including: Illusion of control: This type of overconfidence bias refers to the belief that someone has more control over a situation than they do. In trading, it could lead to traders believing they can control the market when they can’t. Over ranking: This refers to the belief that someone is more talented than they actually are. This is common because no one wants to believe they are below average. In trading, this could lead to traders making trades based on overly optimistic forecasts, culminating in potential losses. Timing optimism: This is when someone incorrectly thinks they could do work far quicker than they can. This relates to trading when traders believe a trade or investment would pay off far faster than it could. Desirability effect: Perhaps better known as wishful thinking, this is when someone thinks that something will happen just because they want it to happen. Overconfidence bias examples These are some hypothetical cases where trades could go wrong because traders have fallen victim to the overconfidence effect: Believing an asset’s price will continue moving in the same direction – An example of overconfidence bias in trading is when a trader believes an asset will continue to move in a way that benefits them, despite receiving negative news or signals. Suppose a trader made a profit when going long on a contract for difference (CFD) on Amazon (AMZN) shares. They now feel confident the price will likely continue rising, leading them to hold onto the position for too long, meaning there are significant losses when its price trajectory changes. Ignoring risk – Overconfidence could lead traders to ignore potential risks associated with an investment. For example, they may miss the risk associated with a particular sector or industry and trade it heavily. This could lead to significant losses if the sector or industry experiences a market correction. Overtrading Overconfidence bias could make traders believe they may make quick profits through frequent trading. They may take more risks than they should and trade too frequently, leading to high transaction costs and lower returns. Overtrading could also lead to a lack of trading discipline and increased susceptibility to making mistakes. Failing to consider alternative viewpoints Overconfidence bias may be linked to confirmation bias, where people seek information supporting their beliefs while ignoring information contradicting them. This could result in traders ignoring or missing important information and making decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information, potentially leading to losses. How to counteract overconfidence bias There are ways people can consider if they want to overcome and counteract overconfidence bias. These could include: Acknowledging it. Knowing that overconfidence exists could be the first step in tackling it. Being realistic. Understanding that you do not always make the best decisions all the time could help guard against overconfidence bias. Researching the market. Knowing that markets can do unexpected things very often could help someone understand the consequences of overconfidence. Keeping a note of trades. A trader who records their trades could look over them, see where they went wrong, and gain a perspective that could prevent overconfidence bias. Being diligent. Doing their research and trying to make trades based on facts rather than emotions, coupled with regularly checking and updating their trading strategies, could help stop someone from suffering overconfidence. Conclusion A simple overconfidence bias definition is the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities, knowledge, or judgement that could lead to excessive confidence and risk-taking and result in significant losses. Traders and investors should be aware of the different types of overconfidence and take steps to avoid them, such as seeking out diverse sources of information, avoiding making trades based on emotions, and regularly reassessing their investment strategies. By doing so, traders could minimise the risk of overconfidence bias and make more informed trading decisions.
SP:SPXEducation
by Capitalcom