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Bias-long

Biogen - Pivot Point - Beware EarningsHey traders, I was searching for potential pivot points for long call opportunities and I came across Biogen NASDAQ:BIIB and thought to myself "Hey! This looks good!"... that is until I saw they're expected to report earnings tomorrow. But otherwise, take a look at the chart above. One thing you will see...is that its been trading within a range. I highlighted this range on the chart using the labels Support and Resistance. The other thing to notice is where the stock price is relative to the Bollinger Bands. If earnings wasn't tomorrow, I would be more inclined to purchase a call here because the stock price is holding at the lower BollingerBand at 2 standard deviations. Stock price has a tendency to move back towards the 8 EMA on the daily chart above, so if we are playing the odds, this trade would be in favor to the upside. But this trade is invalidated since we have a major news event happening tomorrow. So... let's see what happens. In my experience, if a stock breaches the lower Bollinger Band after an earnings report, it's no longer a valid long call trade. In the past, I have made the mistake in thinking with 2 standard deviations... I have a 95% chance that price will fall back within the BollingerBands within the lifespan of the trade. But often what ends up happening is the stock price moves in a "L shaped" pattern where the vertical end of the "L" is the drop after the major news event and the horizontal side of the "L" is the sideways price action the stock experiences for days ( sometimes weeks ) following the news event. In this situation, the stock usually comes back within the 2 standard deviation range... but not until Theta decay has eaten up your call option's premium. So even if you eventually get the direction right, time will not be kind to your long call position. This is where applying the Put Credit Spread strategy comes in handy. With Put Credit Spreads, you are an option seller, rather than an option buyer. Time will erode the premiums of the spread making it cheaper to buy back later. What's even better, is if the stock moves up... then the Delta will negatively affect the puts making them cheaper to buy back. Anyways, let's follow Biogen tomorrow and see if they beat or miss earnings and how the stock price reacts to the news. If it heads lower, we'll follow up in next weeks idea regarding the put credit spread setup.
NASDAQ:BIIB
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
Inverting the chart to avoid bias in trade selectionHave you ever taken a chart and looked at it from the flip-side? Why would you do that? To avoid bias. There is a long bias and a short bias. We all have biases, but just need to confirm it by a simple test. Plot a chart of SYM and then plot the inverse of the chart next to it by using 100/SYM. You can make the numerator any size you want to get the price scale you want. In the example above I used 10,000/DIA to plot the inverse of the DIA as a $59 stock instead of a $168.23 stock. If you see a difference in the charts then you have a bias and it would be good to take any of your charts and flip them over first to see before you take a trade. Look at the chart of the DIA on the top left. It looks more bullish to me than bearish and my eye sees the resistance as more likely to be overcome to my eye than the chart on the top right. I see the base as more supportive and the area above as a zone to retest and work through the resistance. Therefore, I have a long bias. I see the chart on the right as bullish (bearish in reality, the inverse). See what you find in yourself. We are all different and we also see different parts of the chart stand out to our eye when we flip it over. Check it out for yourself. Tim 11:58AM EST 10/7/2015
NASDAQ:AAPL
by timwest
6
EUR/USD Bullish BIAS On Double Bttom +RSI Massive Divegence I've formed a new bias on eur/usd - in my opinion it's likely eur/usd is going to retrace after all it has been plummeting since 2014-05-08 and we are also a at a pretty big resistance level (to see that you can squeeze this chart or take a look at the weekly), we now how a possible double bottom with bullish divergence, massive one. So now may be the time eur/usd could finally retrace. Possible targets or end of this retracement in my opinion will probably, but this could depend immensely on fundamentals, be at the structure and fib .382 (of the the big move) level confluence. Now this is a bias and I will look for opportunities and good setups, I won't just buy now, because of it all. To enter a long position on double bottom i would first look at volume if it there a lot of volume this double bottom trade could be very risky and take out stop loss orders quickly and it could also rally, but i think that it would be smarter to wait for volume to get small and maybe then buy a lite bit, but remember as treider our own opinion is the most important to us AND THIS ALL IS OPINION NOT ADVICE NOT A CRYSTAL BALL PREDICTION I'M SAYING WHAT I THINK IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN. p.s. + additional indecision candles would be a good sign BEWARE OF THE NEWS and economic calendar events. Written by : Wizard, whit --> NO CRYSTAL BALL. US Dollar going down --> This would also be a catalyst for natural gas you may want to check out my idea about it can be found in the Related Link's Is Below.
Long
by Wizard
2