Get started

Bias

Weekly Market recap 6: volatility may take off very soonI believe the first breakout impulse of a new trend in the major assets can start during the next week. DXY broke out the long-term trendline and held above, closing at the border of the current sideways channel at 94.00 (even a little above it). If on Monday DXY closes confidently above 94.00, I'll be surely bullish on USD and JPY as that may signal the beginning of the new wave of risk aversion sentiment. If instead DXY forms a rejection candle signal, the reversal back into the range is likely. The major asset classes came to significant price levels 1)Brent broke the important support at 39.00, confirming the short-term uptrend (started at the end of April) reversal according to the trend structure. 2)Although S&P500 hasn't broken September low yet, it's consolidating under MA(100), that adds to my bearish bias on stocks. 3)Gold is also testing its major support level. Possible scenarios Whatever asset you look at, the full-body candle in either direction will tell us a lot at this point. We either enter into a volatile trending market (in case of DXY being above 94.00) or a possible short-term trend of medium volatility in the opposite direction. The market may be pricing in the upcoming United States Presidential election on November 3. The election result can be a catalyst for a new trend across the board.
TVC:DXY
by Cherry94
The Dollar remains relatively firm and resilient given a loss...The Dollar remains relatively firm and resilient given a loss of safe-haven status or less demand amidst a fragile recovery in risk sentiment, month end portfolio rebalancing and positioning ahead of next week’s US Presidential Election. However, the index is back below 94.000 and Thursday’s 94.105 high within a 93.983-762 range as several major counterparts claw back some lost ground before another raft of data, the Chicago PMI and final Michigan sentiment. All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, as the Kiwi regains hold of the 0.6600 handle in wake of another upbeat sentiment survey (ANZ consumer confidence up to 108.7 in October from 100.0 previously), and the Euro pares some post-ECB losses after basing at 1.1650. Note, this coincided with the 100 DMA, which is now 5 pips firmer and the 2 chart points also align with 1.5 bn option expiries for today’s NY cut.
Short
by FTUKcom
1
Biogen - Pivot Point - Beware EarningsHey traders, I was searching for potential pivot points for long call opportunities and I came across Biogen NASDAQ:BIIB and thought to myself "Hey! This looks good!"... that is until I saw they're expected to report earnings tomorrow. But otherwise, take a look at the chart above. One thing you will see...is that its been trading within a range. I highlighted this range on the chart using the labels Support and Resistance. The other thing to notice is where the stock price is relative to the Bollinger Bands. If earnings wasn't tomorrow, I would be more inclined to purchase a call here because the stock price is holding at the lower BollingerBand at 2 standard deviations. Stock price has a tendency to move back towards the 8 EMA on the daily chart above, so if we are playing the odds, this trade would be in favor to the upside. But this trade is invalidated since we have a major news event happening tomorrow. So... let's see what happens. In my experience, if a stock breaches the lower Bollinger Band after an earnings report, it's no longer a valid long call trade. In the past, I have made the mistake in thinking with 2 standard deviations... I have a 95% chance that price will fall back within the BollingerBands within the lifespan of the trade. But often what ends up happening is the stock price moves in a "L shaped" pattern where the vertical end of the "L" is the drop after the major news event and the horizontal side of the "L" is the sideways price action the stock experiences for days ( sometimes weeks ) following the news event. In this situation, the stock usually comes back within the 2 standard deviation range... but not until Theta decay has eaten up your call option's premium. So even if you eventually get the direction right, time will not be kind to your long call position. This is where applying the Put Credit Spread strategy comes in handy. With Put Credit Spreads, you are an option seller, rather than an option buyer. Time will erode the premiums of the spread making it cheaper to buy back later. What's even better, is if the stock moves up... then the Delta will negatively affect the puts making them cheaper to buy back. Anyways, let's follow Biogen tomorrow and see if they beat or miss earnings and how the stock price reacts to the news. If it heads lower, we'll follow up in next weeks idea regarding the put credit spread setup.
NASDAQ:BIIB
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
Euro daily outlook Haven't posted a chart much anymore but today I decided to. To say the least, I am bearish on the euro but for the time being... I am bullish. Price is fractal. Looking for the Euro to slide as high as 1.18450 before seeing any sort of significant decline, any retracement shall be minor and in sync to 1.18450. Once we arrive there, the euro should be good to go as low as 1.17450 potentially lower... I am at least looking for sixty to seventy point decline.
Short
by CurranSotomayor
Recency Bias With Streaks and Occurrence FrequencyIn this video idea, I discuss the idea of how to check for bias in recent events in an indicator by requiring that X of the last Y candles meet a certain condition. It is common to refer to recency bias as something that can skew your view on things based on recent events. In this case, I am referring to applying a bias to our indicator based on recent events. I show you how I go about checking for occurrence frequency to require that X of Y candles are red in this example. Specifically, we check for at least 3 red candles in the last 4 or 5 candles. By using float values to represent true or false with a 1 or 0 we can easily sum the values of the 1 or 0 on our conditions for the last Y candles. Once we get the occurrence account we can compare the occurrence that actually occurred to the number we actually required on X. We take this a step farther and show how this might be used by requiring another condition to be true on the current candle as well and plot to share when this next condition is true or false (1:0) as well.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BigBitsIO
1
Aussies heading into troubled zoneThere are no promises, guarantees or predictions in this. The Aussies have been flattening out at a top - it appears - at this time. There are only two directions for price - nothing new in that. What happens in situations like these is: 1 - either price collapses. 2 - it rockets north. You can imagine what bulls and bears would say to each of the above. Their inherent biases controls their minds. Biases predetermine - quite unconsciously - what logic will arrive at. Hence people get into 'predictions', then punch the air when price confirms their bias. Both the nature of confirmation bias and prevalence-induced concept change should be studied by all traders. Some say ' What's psychology got to do with this? ' I'm sorry for some. How does one control how wrong a bias may be? It's called a stoploss! Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FX:AUS200Education
by Captain_Walker
"The Real" Head and shoulder of the S&P ???I'm posting this as an idea, I thought that the head and shoulder was already here when we touched the 2780 level but we came back because the feds and Powell saying that they will do anything to keep the rally. Now this one (that I have in the picture) might come next week so I hope that the feds can't fight this really obvious technical indicator of a fall. Or, I'm with a sell position and is just my bias of the trade trying to see and catch any false indicator of a big fall. (Although I'm pretty sure it won't go over 2971 or 2980 again). Please let me know what do you think?!!!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by CriptoJoe
6
EURUSD, Trading the TrendLooking at the Euro’s value in US dollars (EURUSD) to find the general trend and potential entries and exits. We can see historically, due to the momentum of the trend, that using a trend indicator like our Directional Bias Indicator has led to having a rather successful long./ short bias. Above the yellow line, the bar color is green, and the bias is long. Below, bar color is red, and bias is short. We always want to trade the direction of the trend, but in general, we will want to enter and exit positions along the trend as well. To find entries and exits, we can use our Triggers indicator. In an uptrend, we go long and take profits at L tp (purple arrow), and in a downtrend, we got short and take profits on S tp (blue arrow). Likewise, if we want to find re-entry, we can look for the purple x marked L e for a long entry, and a blue x marked S e for a short entry. In other words, we want to first and foremost listen to the long signals from Triggers in an uptrend and the short signals from Triggers in a downtrend. Right now we have a long bias according to Directional Bias and a long entry according to Triggers. A cross below the yellow line means a short bias from Directional Bias and that means the long is invalidated. Otherwise, the bias from Triggers and Directional Bias is currently bullish on the US dollar against the Euro at the moment... although looking at how close we are to the previous range as defined by Directional Bias, that could change quickly.
by AlphaBotSystem
2
AUD/USD - Short, with added confluence to make this move strongDaily Support created the illusion for people to go long, the stop losses just below. Remember if you buy, your stop loss is a sell. You SELL your BUY position at a worse price! China and Australia's economies are very tied together, due to the corona outbreak the AUD is tanking. This added with the fuel from all the stop losses below the daily resistance zone create a good ammunition to take price down. Plus breakout traders golden rule is usually trade support becoming resistance etc. I entered after a pullback/retracement and break lower on 1hr.
Short
by joebrownFX
200 EMA - best use for entries!I don't use indicators, they're not my style, they lag, they repaint; and in my opinion they don't work. The 200 EMA on DAILY can be useful because of how slow it is. We can use it to filter the direction of which way we trade. Price ABOVE 200 ema = ONLY BUY Price BELOW 200 ema = ONLY SELL Then drop timeframes for your entries via your strategy whatever that may be. If your strategy says go long but price is below EMA, don't take the trade etc... Ignore the EMA on other timeframes lower than the daily. You want a slow daily direction indicator. Don't blindly trade this, wait until price is clearly past the EMA and maintaining a good distance from it. Use it as a guideline if you struggle working out fundamentals to help you filter a direction to trade. NOT TO REPLACE FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS!!!
Education
by joebrownFX
NZDUSD: RBNZ On The WayThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand will likely give the Kiwi a boost of volatility in the upcoming Asia session with its latest statement on monetary policy. Expectations are for no change this month as recent economic data has been net positive, and as they wait to see the full extent of damage the COVID-19 is set to do to the world economy. The scenario to watch out for is a more dovish-than-expected RBNZ and reversal pattern back to the downtrend after the event for the bearish market. For the bullish bias, any rhetoric lowering the odds of a potential rate cut this year will likely draw in buying support for the Kiwi, at least for the short-term as recent sessions have shown global positive risk sentiment as the main driver for the financial market. One news which might have earlier sparked some volatility on comdolls could be "WHO's Tedros, the first vaccine for COVID-19 (coronavirus) could be ready in 18 months".
by jessi061