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Bias

USDCHF: Recent Trendline Breakout, Temporarily BullishPrice has recently broken out of the (D) descending channel. It then pushed up to meet the (D) 50% Fib retracement level and proceeded to the downside to retest support. The price has now broken out of the (4H) downtrend line. I anticipate the price will retest and reject this level of support, and temporarily continue to the upside. **Rationale:** L1: ~ Break of channel (D) L2: ~ Retest of support (D) ~ Impulse wave completion L3: ~ Break of trendline (4H) ~ Retest of support **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. ** Annotations:** Categories: 1. Naming: (N1) 2. Labeling: (L1) 3. Forecasting: (F1) Sub-categories: 1. Naming: (N1.1) 2. Labeling: (L1.1) 3. Forecasting: (F1.1) --- #scalping #intraday
Long
by Forexity
3
AUDUSD: Multiple Rejections, Potential ReversalPrice has recently rejected this level multiple times. As-well-as multiple rejections and long-wick candlesticks, we have a rounding top chart pattern. I anticipate price will continue to reject this level and eventually breakout of the uptrend line, suggesting a bearish bias. **Rationale:** ~ Area of resistance ~ Multiple rejections ~ Long-wick candlesticks ~ Rounding top ~ Break of trendline --- **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. --- #scalping #intraday #daytrading
Short
by Forexity
The Value of an Unbiased BiasHi everyone, In this video I would like to discuss the value of having an unbiased bias when it comes to your analysis. It’s a dry subject with only a little chart illustrating near the end, but the boring stuff usually tends to be the most important topics when it comes to making it in this industry. I think most of us are familiar with the word ‘bias’. For those that aren’t, basically, in the context of trading, all it means is being in favour of the market moving either to the upside or downside. Your bias comes by means of your analysis and can be related to any timeframe. For example, I could have a bullish bias on a higher timeframe monthly chart, and a bearish bias for the lower timeframe daily chart. Now, you don’t HAVE to always have a bias. If you don’t know, then you simple don’t know, and there is nothing wrong with that, it would be unreasonable and nonsensical to think otherwise. But, sometimes your bias is wrong, which leads me to the topic of this video. I believe even for traders who don’t know how to form a technical bias, do so anyway in the form of psychological bias. Most of the time, we think the market is either going up or down, hence why we would even get into a long or short position. The tricky part is being flexible and changing your bias when the market is indicating you are clearly wrong. Smart Money knows how we think, and they know how to create sentiment in the marketplace. This is why its crucial to be able to change your bias on a dime, WHEN it is applicable, WHEN your analysis is showing you, and NOT for any other reason. The later you are to the party, the less pips you can catch, and the less likely your trades will win. As humans, we tend to cling to our beliefs. We block out any evidence indicating that we may be wrong about them. And when the market is showing us that we may be wrong, we just tell ourselves “Well now the market is offering me more pips, I have to get in on this move!”, hence one reason how you get long or short squeezes. - R2F
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by Road_2_Funded
The most important chart in your trading career.Merry Christmas to all, I hope you and yours are well. My present to you this year is the one chart you should ALL be watching. SPX/GOLD Risk On (Equities), Risk Off (Gold). It will save you a TON of time/headaches, if you follow this chart. In this video I go over why you should use it. How your portfolio would have been managed the last 50yr, and at the end give a quick method for managing your ratio between Risk On/Off. As always, good luck in your trading, have fun, and practice solid risk management.
FRED:M2SL
by mrjones2020
7
RISK OFF FRIDAYThe King, Dollar Index, is in a Weekly BuySide SellSide Imbalance, BISI. Is this the end of a RISK OFF Spell for Risk Assets and a possible uptake for Dollar. 10 Year US Yields, US10Y, has led the way into its own Weekly BISI. Currency follows the Rates...so I would be highly cautions this RISK OFF FRIDAY Afterall, the Rates are not yet cut, the indication of possible rate cuts scheduled for next is not enough to push through the weekly SIBI, or is it? ...from Kong with LOVE...
EASYMARKETS:USXUSD
by KongSA
LONGTERM BIASEDDid not use any of indicators or any. Just wanted to know your thoughts on my longterm thinking about GU. If I am counting DXY weakening (FED possible decrease of Interest rates, now or later.. even if they leave them on same levels, USD loosing on value) plus England getting better on longterm. We can see possible rise in upcoming months and years. Let me know with your opinions or correct me. I will gladly change my mind if I am wrong. Do NOT forget this is D TF. Trade wisely and wish you only greens! J
Long
by jake1fx
Easiest way to determine BIASHere is an example of how to determine Bias for the day, or the open. Using the Open and Low or Open and High of the Daily candle in conjunction with the midnight opening price, we can easily determine Bias for the day, or for placing orders during the NY open. This example is shown on CL (Oil Futures) for a LONG BIAS. Just reverse for Short Bias. ( I mistakenly typed High when I meant Low in the example's text.) Adding this to an existing strategy or entry technique can be very powerful. I hope this is helpful for everyone. Happy Trading!
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by The_Lioness
9
Introduction to Behavioral FinanceIntroduction Behavioral finance is a captivating field that explores how human psychology affects financial decision-making. Traditional finance models assume investors are rational beings, making logical choices to maximize wealth. However, behavioral finance acknowledges that emotions, cognitive biases, and herd mentality often lead individuals to deviate from rationality. In this article, we delve into the intriguing world of behavioral finance, investigating the psychological factors that influence investors and traders and how these elements impact their decision-making processes. Cognitive Biases: The Subconscious Pitfalls Cognitive biases are ingrained mental shortcuts that our brains use to simplify information processing. Although helpful in everyday life, these biases can lead to significant errors in investment decisions. Common cognitive biases include: a. Confirmation Bias: Investors tend to seek and favor information that supports their existing beliefs or opinions, ignoring contradictory evidence. This leads to a skewed perception of market trends and an unwillingness to challenge preconceived notions. b. Overconfidence Bias: Many investors overestimate their ability to predict market movements, leading to excessive risk-taking and potentially significant losses. c. Anchoring Bias: This bias occurs when investors fixate on a particular piece of information (e.g., the purchase price of a stock) and use it as a reference point for future decisions, disregarding changing circumstances. d. Loss Aversion: Investors often fear losses more than they value gains, causing them to hold onto losing positions for too long in the hope of a turnaround, leading to missed opportunities. Emotional Influences on Decision-Making a. Fear and Greed: Fear and greed are potent emotions that profoundly impact investment decisions. Fear can trigger panic selling during market downturns, while greed may fuel excessive risk-taking in pursuit of high returns. b. Regret Aversion: Investors tend to avoid making decisions that might result in regret, such as realizing losses on investments. This reluctance may lead to inaction and failure to rebalance portfolios as needed. c. Herding Behavior: Humans are social creatures, and this extends to financial markets. Herding behavior occurs when investors follow the actions of others, even when it may not be in their best interest, potentially exacerbating market trends. d. Availability Heuristic: Investors often rely on easily accessible information or recent events to make decisions, leading to an overemphasis on recent market trends and news. Conclusion Behavioral finance sheds light on the critical role psychology plays in investment decision-making. Cognitive biases, emotions, and herd mentality can lead investors astray, affecting their financial well-being and market stability. Recognizing these psychological factors is essential for investors and traders seeking to make more informed and rational choices. As financial professionals continue to explore behavioral finance, the integration of psychology with traditional finance models promises to enhance our understanding of market dynamics and human behavior in the world of finance. By embracing the insights offered by behavioral finance, investors can take steps to minimize biases and make more objective and strategic investment decisions for long-term success.
Education
by financialflagship
Overconfidence BiasCauses of overconfidence bias In order to define overconfidence bias, it is important to understand some of the causes. These could include: Doubt avoidance. Very often, people don’t like moments of ambiguity or doubt. Overconfidence could work as a solution, with the overconfident person feeling confident in their abilities to feel sure, even in a situation where they should feel doubtful. Inconsistency avoidance. A lot of the time, people search for consistency when it comes to new ideas. There is a tendency to search for a link between previously held beliefs and new ones. This may lead people to hold onto their old ideas, even if new evidence contradicts them. The endowment effect. This phenomenon is where people overvalue things purely because they own them and could feed back into overconfidence. Hindsight bias. Hindsight bias, the false belief that they saw something happening before it happened when they didn’t could lead to overconfidence. Incentives. Sometimes, the higher an incentive someone has for doing something, the more determined they are to do it. This could make them believe they have made the right judgments and have the skills to get it done, even when they don’t. Types of overconfidence bias Overconfidence can come in various forms, including: Illusion of control: This type of overconfidence bias refers to the belief that someone has more control over a situation than they do. In trading, it could lead to traders believing they can control the market when they can’t. Over ranking: This refers to the belief that someone is more talented than they actually are. This is common because no one wants to believe they are below average. In trading, this could lead to traders making trades based on overly optimistic forecasts, culminating in potential losses. Timing optimism: This is when someone incorrectly thinks they could do work far quicker than they can. This relates to trading when traders believe a trade or investment would pay off far faster than it could. Desirability effect: Perhaps better known as wishful thinking, this is when someone thinks that something will happen just because they want it to happen. Overconfidence bias examples These are some hypothetical cases where trades could go wrong because traders have fallen victim to the overconfidence effect: Believing an asset’s price will continue moving in the same direction – An example of overconfidence bias in trading is when a trader believes an asset will continue to move in a way that benefits them, despite receiving negative news or signals. Suppose a trader made a profit when going long on a contract for difference (CFD) on Amazon (AMZN) shares. They now feel confident the price will likely continue rising, leading them to hold onto the position for too long, meaning there are significant losses when its price trajectory changes. Ignoring risk – Overconfidence could lead traders to ignore potential risks associated with an investment. For example, they may miss the risk associated with a particular sector or industry and trade it heavily. This could lead to significant losses if the sector or industry experiences a market correction. Overtrading Overconfidence bias could make traders believe they may make quick profits through frequent trading. They may take more risks than they should and trade too frequently, leading to high transaction costs and lower returns. Overtrading could also lead to a lack of trading discipline and increased susceptibility to making mistakes. Failing to consider alternative viewpoints Overconfidence bias may be linked to confirmation bias, where people seek information supporting their beliefs while ignoring information contradicting them. This could result in traders ignoring or missing important information and making decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information, potentially leading to losses. How to counteract overconfidence bias There are ways people can consider if they want to overcome and counteract overconfidence bias. These could include: Acknowledging it. Knowing that overconfidence exists could be the first step in tackling it. Being realistic. Understanding that you do not always make the best decisions all the time could help guard against overconfidence bias. Researching the market. Knowing that markets can do unexpected things very often could help someone understand the consequences of overconfidence. Keeping a note of trades. A trader who records their trades could look over them, see where they went wrong, and gain a perspective that could prevent overconfidence bias. Being diligent. Doing their research and trying to make trades based on facts rather than emotions, coupled with regularly checking and updating their trading strategies, could help stop someone from suffering overconfidence. Conclusion A simple overconfidence bias definition is the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities, knowledge, or judgement that could lead to excessive confidence and risk-taking and result in significant losses. Traders and investors should be aware of the different types of overconfidence and take steps to avoid them, such as seeking out diverse sources of information, avoiding making trades based on emotions, and regularly reassessing their investment strategies. By doing so, traders could minimise the risk of overconfidence bias and make more informed trading decisions.
SP:SPXEducation
by Capitalcom
Dealing With Confirmation Bias In TradingConfirmation bias is a self defeating attempt to impose one's own bias on the market. This most often results in pre-trade chart blindness. When we analyze the market with a preset bias, we will only see confluences, patterns, price action, and setups that confirm our bias. This is the human flaw of needing to be correct. The need to be correct will cause traders to subconsciously ignore chart information that would prove us wrong. Confirmation bias results is the inability to objectively analyze the market. Have you ever noticed that you see a setup and you feel confident before entering the trade that it will work out in your favor based on your analysis. But as you re-assess after entering the trade, you notice multiple confluences that indicate that you may have picked the wrong direction. This is pre-trade chart blindness. You can't see the obstacles to your trade because you have only found the confirmations that support your need to be correct. It is better to allow the market to determine the bias for us. Price leaves us clues to it's direction and intent. It is our job as traders to objectively weigh the evidence for a buy or a sell. Just as a detective collects evidence that will either prove innocence or guilt in a court of law, we must put our trade setups on trial. We must weigh the evidence impartially and without bias to determine if our setups are innocent (valid) or guilty (invalid), without being attached to proving ourselves right or wrong. Realizing that you have subconsciously ignored an important piece of evidence after the trade has been executed is too late. There are 3 ways of dealing with confirmation bias: 1. Remain objective and unbiased in your analysis. Don't tell price what it should do, listen to what price is telling you. Your trade setup is on trial and it will give a confession, but you have to be willing to listen and accept that confession. Warning: Your trade setup may lie under oath (manipulation) so be prepared to always follow the strongest evidence. 2. Take the trade on demo first to quickly move past your pre-trade chart blindness and allow yourself to see clearly what you may have missed due to confirmation bias. If the trade setup is still valid after entering the trade on demo, then take it for real. This will also help with patience and prevent you from getting in too early. 3. Play devil's advocate. For example, if you believe based on the evidence that the trade is a buy, try to find all the reasons that it would be a sell. Weigh the evidence for a buy against the evidence for a sell to identify which has a higher probability. As a bonus you can make the comparison of the risk to reward of the buy and sell setups as another determining factor for which trade to take. Recognize that confirmation bias exists and anyone can be a victim to it. Being self aware of your potential for confirmation bias and taking steps to mitigate your own bias should be a part of your pre-analysis and pre-trade routine.
Education
by MartialChartsFX