BTC Headed To $39k - $40k This WeekLooks like Scenario #3 is playing out here as Bitcoin struggles to hold $42,500, an important support & resistance level from earlier this year and recently on the way back up to to $50k, triggering a pullback to it's rising 21 day EMA.
From here, I expect BTC and the Altcoins will bleed further lower, with BTC bottoming between $39k and $40k before rebounding sharply, possibly as early as Friday.
The weekly and monthly RSI have also rejected at key resistance levels, indicating further downside in the short term. If we close at or near the weekly lows, we could see further downside from there but this market feels like it wants to go higher.
For that to happen, we would need to see a bounce off the weekly lows to have a bullish candle print on the weekly chart, and some indication the US stock market will bounce in the short term.
Bicoinfinalbottom
Bitcoin - Ordering Chaos. Bottom is inBitcoin - Ordering Chaos
Despite the apparent imbalance and chaos in world markets, and the illusion of the lack of a traffic structure, the main task of this process is to confuse, mislead ordinary consumers, the crowd, you and me. In fact, if you look at the price chart and use the simplest and most primitive analysis tools, a slender, simple and logical picture appears.
In this analysis, I will formulate my Hypothesis on why the historical bottom has already been found and the price will not go fundamentally lower - this is first of all. And in the second, I will give an approximate logic and structure of the movement for the next few months.
So. If we consider the daily candles and areas of falling and current price trading, we can identify a number of factors, after which it becomes clear that the current level is almost ideal for stopping and starting a trend reversal. Namely:
1. The minimum price reached 3850 (Coinbase). This is a test / spring of the accumulation zone of November 2018 - April 2019, which has never been tested in the course of the entire movement. From this zone we received a powerful reaction in the form of purchases with a rebound in prices of more than 40% from the minimum
2. The current trading and closing of daily candles takes place in the zone 4800-5500. The second important accumulation zone of April-May 2019, the exit from which was breaking through the level of sales of November 2018 without stopping
3. Supporting the fall on the days was the line of resistance at the lows of December 14, 2018 - February 8, 2019 (and now stands)
4. Support for the fall on the diaries was the line of support for the parallel downward channel , if held at the highs of June 25, 2019 - February 11, 2020
If you add and compare all these factors, it becomes clear that technically the price is at the most powerful level. More powerful than it is now only at least December 14, 2018 in the region of $ 3,000.
I would be 100% sure that the bottom has already been found and will not be updated if there were negative factors in the form of a global financial recession and uncertainty about the point and time of the peak of COVID. Now a strong sense of correlation of the crypto market with world stock indices is being created, which means that in the event of a further major decline, they can still drag bitcoin along with them. And in case of overlapping of the 3850 minimum with an 80% probability, 3000 are waiting for us. But until then, I have been considering other scenarios of price growth.
With the first part sorted out, go to the second.
1. The area from 0.5 to 0.618 Fibo candle sales on March 12. In fact, 50% of the movement and a little on top. 50% of any major impulse movement will ALWAYS be defended by the player who made this movement
2. The range of consolidation before the fall of November 13, 2018. He again.
3. The zone of support for past local lows from November 24 to December 25, 2019. Now it will become a zone of support.
From this level, very many will sell and open shorts, so immediately the price will not go through it.
Fundamentally, we must not forget the halving factor, which will take place in May 2020. Yes, he will no longer drive the price to annual highs, but he is still able to exert a positive influence.
Therefore, now I am structurally considering two scenarios of price movement:
1. Growth to the zone 6300-6700 - rollback to support in the region of 5000 - growth from this support and breaking through the zone of the trend change with the goals of 7000-7500
2. Growth to the zone 5900-6100 - rollback by updating the minimum to the region 4200-4500 - return to 6000 with the possibility of acceleration up to 7000.
Can we go faster / higher / stronger? Of course. But if you consider the objective picture, it is difficult to lay on this in the current market situation. With all this, I consider:
Bitcoin has reached the bottom.