66K support as the 1st chance to buyMorning folks,
So, the journey to 68-69K target is over. Daily AB-CD is completed, right at the trendline resistance on weekly/daily time frame. This target agrees with intraday XOP of our reverse H&S.
Since BTC has its own driver - D. Trump promises to make America BTC great again - this lets it to move against the wind, together with gold. But drivers are different.
Now we're watching for pullback to 66K support area first. This is the first area where potentially market could turn up again. Next upside target is 70.35K.
Bictoin
BTCUSD - We all love fractals so here's another oneNot the first time I show up this one,
So, we're still following this mega structure but with tinier scales
- Green ellipse : We can start this fractal from the approval of the BTC ETF that happened the 10th January
then BTC went ~20% down, followed by a ~100% move till the 10th March, 2 months ride
The same happened end august 2020, btc went ~20% down, followed by a ~600% move till early April
We are comparing, 100% and 600% moves, this is why we won't go super low this time (but we can still go 10% lower)
- Orange and blue ellipses : next for the fractal is the double top with a long time range between the top and the blue ellipse resistance, with very similar moves, if you want more details on it check this idea : even tho the paths and targets are wrong in it, the explanation remain the same, I just thought BTC wouldn't follow the whole pattern
- Red ellipse: this is where we are and its almost the end, at the very end of this part in 2020 BTC made 2 dips. 1 above the red circle and 1 below. the second dip is because of FTX but was technically forecastable, meaning that with or without this "news" BTC could have go there
We are now sitting above the purple circle, so 2 scenarios :
- we are not going for another dip and we go up from now
- we make another dip, below the purple circle and that would bring us to ~50k - 0.382 fib (My guess is on that one)
then target 100k :))
Bitcoin reached drop zoneI think BTC has reached the final resistance zone. 42k is a real strong one, and most of indicators indicates that drop will begin now. If 42k fails to hold, 46k could be next. In the last 24 hrs more than 300 millions USD was liquidated, so it could be good to start dropping now. 33.5k is next
Bitcoin - I am the super greedy bull!Hello, community!
I hope you did not forgot about me. I took some time not sharing analysis. I have been actively trading all this time, searching the new information. I came back with the fresh knowledges. Now I am long position from the $21870 fractal breakout and I am very greedy.
Let's take a look at the 1h time frame BINANCE:BTCUSDT . I found the new way using the Elliott wave analysis. Now I don't needed anymore to count the exact wave sequence. If we take a look at the Alligator, when the price is not touching it's red line it's the impulsive wave, most probably wave 3. Inside the wave 3 you can be greedy on every up fractal breakout, like me now. Awesome oscillator is also showing that the wave 3 now is in progress and I want eat up all this trend.
Now I anticipate the pump continuation, but I have the stop loss already in profit at $22088 . This is the uptrend invalidation level now. Of cource the new candles incoming I am going to trail this stop loss.
Best regards, Ivan
________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you like my trade ideas, please smash the boost button to stimulate me make more quality analytics!
Bitcoin - BTCUSD stays down ≈75% from its ATHBitcoin continues to trade choppy near the 16 700$ price tag. On the daily chart, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic trend sideways, which is a sign of improvement compared to the preceding two weeks. However, we remain bearish as we do not expect fundamental factors to get better anytime soon. With the FED staying hawkish, we believe there is much more downside for the cryptocurrency market in the coming months. Indeed, we believe that the fallout with FTX has not been resolved yet, posing more obstacles for the market. In accordance with that, we stay committed to our price target of 15 000$. Momentarily, we will pay close attention to volume, which is currently very low. In order to confirm our bearish thesis, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanied by selling pressure.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD, two simple moving averages, and support/resistance levels.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic trend sideways. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows a decline in selling pressure on the daily chart of BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bearish. DM+ and DM- are also bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Taf's Gun to the HeadTrade Idea : Selling BTC in anticipation of triangle breakout.
Reasoning : A follow up of yesterday's bearish candle and possible breakout of the triangle compression.
Entry:19296.00
TP:19032.00
SL:19397.40
RR: 2.6
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ETH: Bullish continuation!Ethereum
Intraday - We look to Buy a break of 1338 (stop at 1313)
Prices have reacted from 1188. Short term momentum is bullish. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. A break of the recent high at 1337 should result in a further move higher.
Our profit targets will be 1397 and 1437
Resistance: 1350 / 1380 / 1400
Support: 1300 / 1280 / 1260
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🔥 Why does Ethereum fall after the MERGE? Where the fall stop?Hi friends! ETH fall after the merge and even BTC make a local pullback on this fall. But how long will the price fall and where is the best place to buy?
✅ Fundamental analysis
📊 What event can be compared to the Merge to understand how the price will move further?
The most acceptable event for us is not the fork of some atcoins but the BTC halving✅ After the halving BTC price is falling for the some time. This happen because of the high retail traders expectations. A lot of retailers wait for the PUMP on the halving but get only BTC conolidation or local decline.
🚩 So the fall after some crypto events it`s not something unusual if we compare the MERGE and BTC halving. This fall is liquidate overleveraged traders, force retailers to close their trades in loss. And it`s good for us, the desciplined traders who know what to do on such bear and crypto events markets as we are.
📊 Why could Etherium lose its Altcoin #1 status?
After the PoS switch, 46% of transactions in the Etherium network are controlled by only 2 validators (2 addresses). As far as we know, the main advantage of cryptocurrency over fiat money is decentralisation.
If the situation does not change soon and many new players do not appear, we can forget about decentralization on the new Ether and the price may fall even lower, as big players will start to slowly sell off this insecure cryptocurrency.
✅ Technical analysis
📊 The downtrend.
Ethereum is in a downtrend as we can see on the chart. If the cryptocurrency is in a downtrend, then no event will help to grow, especially such a large cryptocurrency.
The series of lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH) continues. We have to wait the new higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) to get nice longs and make money on the growth.
📊 The value areas where we can expect the price reversal are:
1. $1050-1250 - the closest value area
2. $530-660 - an area, which with a probability of 90% the price will not reach, but it is worth to mark
✅ I`ll be looking for the whales orders to BUY on the DOM and Footrpint scalping tools. For example, 3000-4000 ETH orders to buy confirm me the WHALES pressence. A several days ago it helps me to identify the large sell order WALL after what the price of BTC and ETH, so that are very usefull tools.
🚩 Pay your attention to the volume indicator if you don`t use DOM and Footprint. Actually it has less efficiency than that scalping tools but also can confrirm you the pressence of whales!
Also, the squeeze to the global trendline will be a good signal after the such DUMP. Don`t miss the enrty point and don`t lost your deposit before the bull run in the 1-2 years! Now it`s better time to learning, testing new tools and strategies, especially for the beginners!
💻Friends, press the "boost"🚀 button, write comments and share with your friends - it will be the best THANK YOU.
P.S. Personally, I open an entry if the price shows it according to my strategy.
Always do your analysis before making a trade.
MAJOR BREAK DOWN SIGNAL IS NOW GIVEN BTC TO SEE 12KTHE CHART POSTED has never been changed since I have be giving posts . I see No reason to alt anything . I have told you why we stopped into the 18600 and I see the next leg within the crash of assets in all classes . watch for a panic into oct 4th to the 20 TH in everything
Bitcoin - The bottom fishing turns out to be painful for retailYesterday, we warned that the (irrational) bullish exuberance among retail investors foreshadows more pain for the price of Bitcoin. Shortly after that, Bitcoin invalidated its bullish breakout for the third time and started to fall. Finally, after erasing more than 7%, Bitcoin halted its decline at 29 309.84 USD. Since then, BTCUSD has been mainly trading sideways. We continue to be bearish on Bitcoin, and we maintain our price target of 25 000 USD. Our view is supported by bearish fundamental factors like higher interest rates in the U.S. and economic tightening, which will put more pressure on the U.S. economy and cryptocurencies. As a result, we expect the downtrend to unravel in the coming months and Bitcoin to form a new low.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the failure of the bullish breakout (invalidation) and subsequent drop in the price of BTCUSD. We believe that fishing for the bottom will continue to punish dip buyers.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish for BTCUSD.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, Stochastic, and MACD are bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Overall, the daily time frame is very bearish for BTCUSD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Bitcoin - The stock market will drag BTCUSD lowerYesterday, the general stock market erased most of its “bear rally” gains. As a result, Bitcoin also erased some of its recent profits; however, not as much as the stock market. We expect Bitcoin to catch up with the stock market and manifest more selling pressure in the short term. Accordingly, we remain bearish and expect BTCUSD to form a new low below 25 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The Nasdaq 100 index to which Bitcoin is highly correlated broke its downward sloping channel, which is very bearish. Indeed, in our opinion, it forecasts an acceleration in the selling pressure in the incoming days. We expect the stock market to drag BTCUSD lower with it.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI started to flatten; we expect it to turn bearish again. The same applies to the MACD. Stochastic remains bearish; DM+ and DM- also remain bearish. The ADX shows extreme strength of the downtrend. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX increases, which suggests that the bearish trend of a higher degree is not losing momentum yet. Overall, the weekly time frame remains very bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
IMPORTANT: BTC reclaims 1hr 50 EMA - But be careful!As you can see from my linked idea from March 11th, the apocalypse came. The biggest storm for the short term is over and Bitcoin has reclaimed the 1hr 50 EMA (yellow) for the first time since May 4th, which is a good sign. Yet there are important factors at play in the market right now. First sign of strength would be to hold the 1hr 50 EMA and beyond we have to look at the stock market. The S&P500 will gap up at the NY open today (just wait and see) and still has immense negative gamma on options. The options dealers will do their best to get the index above 4K to get the massive amount of put contracts out of the money.
So a squeeze is likely, however(!), we still have massive negative gamma that has to be hedged to the downside. Next weeks could still look for more downside as the macro picture is grim. Any rally should be seen as a relief rally and not as a reversal into a bull market, crypto included. The most important levels for Bitcoin in the short term are the local resistance just above 31K and the imbalance between 28 & 26K. These levels could be revisited as soon as the S&P500 trends downwards, with the gap up of today such scenario is possible. Therefore the NY open will be very interesting today. Ideally Bitcoin retest swing lows and creates a double bottom, which could suit for a nice entry if(!) conditions for a long are met. Orderbooks are thin across the board, so be careful. Last thing, please read about an important update in the signature below.
A like is appreciated and let me know if you have any questions in the comments!
Upside action looks weakMorning folks,
BTC has shown a bit curious action in recent few days. The upward bounce that has become the surprise for us - has been reversed fast and price returns back to its own. The result of this action is bearish reversal session on daily chart.
1H chart shows very choppy bounce that cares no signs of thrust. It means that this is not the reversal. Now market stands at solid intraday resistance area. We suggest that downside continuation in current circumstances looks more probable and we still could keep an eye on 37K trend line support on daily chart.
Bullish scenarios could return back on the table as soon as market forms some clear reversal pattern.
Bitcoin is preparing to fly for $ 70,000We are in wave 2 of 3 Elliotts
Wave 2 is being completed in a zigzag pattern
We are currently in wave 2 of the last 5 waves of the pattern
In my opinion, this upward wave in the valid Fibonacci percentages of the previous impulse wave stops and a 3-descending wave is formed.
The important point is that in all the steps of completing this correction pattern, the wave 1 floor, which is in the range of $ 34,000, should not be broken down.
If this level is broken, the target of 70,000 bitcoins will join the dreams and this coin will fall to lower levels.
Bitcoin Bouncing in a Range My Weekly time frame view on Bitcoin.
In near future we may see Bitcoin to 90 k level after it finished the consolidation phrase ABCDE.
Strong support zone Starts from 28600$ to 33029$ in other way strong resistance zone starts from 68771$ to 65078$.
so while the market consolidates we can buy and sell bitcoin on those areas with proper risk management.
Thank you and trade safe.
Bitcoin - Why no new ATH will be reached in 2022Bitcoin rallied over 34% since its low on 25th January 2022. Rally has been fueled by speculation that the FED would not raise interest rates as aggressively as it projects. However, we think the FED will be forced to raise interest rates at least twice this year, primarily due to high inflation which poses structural risk to the global economy. Therefore, we think the current price rally will be short lived and no new all time high price will be reached by BTCUSD in 2022. Instead we think upcoming rate hikes will act as headwinds for further rise in the price of Bitcoin. Additionally, the current bounce in price coincides with retracement towards medium-term SMA (50-day SMA) which is a natural phenomenon and tends to occur when price deviates too far from its moving average. For this reason we will pay close attention to the price and we will watch whether it will manage to stay above its 50-day SMA or not. We expect a drop below the 50-day SMA to be accompanied by resumption of selling pressure. Because of that we would like to set a new short-term price target for BTCUSD to 42 500 USD. Additionally, we would like to set a medium-term price target to 40 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration above shows the daily chart of BTCUSD and its volume. Volume can be seen declining as price keeps making new highs. This suggests new buyers are increasingly harder to find near the 44 000 USD price tag.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is bullish, however, it shows first signs of flattening. MACD performed a bullish crossover above 0 points which is positive for BTCUSD. Stochastic oscillates in the upper area which is bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX undergoes reset through decline. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI continues to develop medium-term bearish structure which remains intact. MACD is bearish as well. Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area but points to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. ADX contains relatively low value that is on continuous decline. This signals no trend is currently present in BTCUSD; additionally, it suggests choppy price market action. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Support and resistance
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.