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BIDEN

Post-election breakdown of DOLLAR-YEN[Target 100]A short post, with few important points: With record low interest rates globally, the carry trade with the short-side in yen is somewhat losing its popularity. Some of the reasons why are: => The carry premium isn't worth the risk any longer. Lately currency markets have been quite volatile, question is whether this will continue. If we get a somewhat more stable environment in developed markets, carry sharks might look elsewhere for the following reasons... => Record low rates globally, even further squeezing the positive carry spread, however now that all the key rates globally are at the ZLB (prospects even to go below it), the importance of inflation is ever more accentuated. Why'd you even enter a long carry with a short side in yen given the inflation differential, with Japan potentially going into a deflationary environment? => Lastly, we're in a new paradigm where it's questionable how long would it take for emerging markets to recover from the virus, and the grading of their government bonds is starting to become questionable. There are other points of course, but principally Biden after all might get a weaker dollar after all, thanks to MMT. On one side, too little stimulus implies a potential credit crunch/crisis, and too much stimulus= devaluation. Obviously, devaluation is without any doubts the better choice. The rest is summarized by the chart. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details , every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels.
Short
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
USDJPY sell off on BIDEN win#USDJPY: (1D): As expected, the downtrend continued to the downside, finally breaking the descending triangle after ranging in it since June. What we need now is a retest of it. Fundamentally, the sell off is to be addressed to Biden winning, which means more fiscal stimulus for the US and a freer approach to trade. This results in a weaker domestic currency. (4H): Having our bearish bias determined, we can now look for a trade. In this case, we can see a clear range on the triangle bottom, which was broken with a strong push to the downside. What we need now, is a pullback to retest the range and a strong rejection of its level.
Short
by Wikiwicks
ES Potential Idea (Nov 8th - Nov 19th 2020)E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) (November 8th 2020 through November 19th 2020) Low: 2531 points High: 3590 points This may be too drastic to happen, or to happen right away. No chance? I understand the longer I keep talking about a market crash that hasn't happened (yet) the sillier I look. If something major doesn't happen this month, are we still on track to have something happen come January 2021? February-March? The amount of greed in the average consumers right now, election and Trump vote claims, etc, all lead me to believe we are at some sort of stressing point, the load gets heavier and heavier and something will snap and flash soon. As always, I'll be looking to the news for some clues for the next few weeks. I could be completely wrong here, I just feel like something is building up soon. Watch the US election drama closely throughout the next few months. The related ideas for this chart are a collection of different scenarios, all with somewhat similar outcomes across major stock indexes. Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, anyone in the trade needs to do their own due diligence and decide what is right for YOU. My charts can be wrong at any time and it's very important that you have your own strategies and plans in place. I run this channel for my own educational purposes of learning to trade, and I will never be 100% right, so please do not let me confirm any bias for you! (Dangerous to do so, stay safe and remember the basics & rules of risk assessment.) Expect the unexpected and happy trading!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Hambooger
EURUSD rallying on BIDEN win#EURUSD: (1D): Technically speaking, we saw the price respecting the uptrend, holding above the 200 EMA as a confirmation. We are also seeing a broken flag to the upside, preceded by a double bottom. Fundamentally (current market mover), Biden election sentiment is reflected in the last rally. The main reason being Democrats' foreign policy more permissive, which is a good thing for EUR and trade in general. These technicals and fundamental factors, make my bias still bullish. (1H): Looking closer, the huge volatility of last week led to pretty large swings. For this reason, we stayed out of the market. With the new week coming, we can start thinking of new opportunities. Last price action is showing an indecision triangle right on the daily trendline. What we are looking for now is a new bullish continuation pattern, being it as a retracement towards the broken trendline or in the case of a 1.19 resistance break.
Long
by Wikiwicks
Biden Market. $SPY Examining the weeks ahead. The Market is at a pivotal moment where we could see significant downside, or possible upside. Ill be waiting to see how the market reacts to the election when futures open up Sunday night. At the moment we are up against a large resistance on the daily and if rejected due to a news type catalyst, hold on to your ass cause we are gonna find suport and quick, but I am a hopeful bull right now but always ready to play the downside.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SimpleStacks
BTCUSD - WHAT'S NEXT WITH BIDEN WIN CONFIRMED?With a Biden victory declared moments ago, what could be next for BTCUSD? Let's take a look at some Technical indicators: Since March, the correlation between BTC and the USDOLLAR index has had a near perfect negative relationship. For those of you trading stocks as well, it has been a general consensus that Biden will be bad for the Dollar initially and if he wins, there will be a further drawback. I expect this to happen on Monday morning with WallStreet opening much lower in almost every aspect except renewables and China50. This might be the "most organic Bitcoin pump in years" (COINTELEGRAPH). It is steady and the trend direction is clear, unlike the parabolic trend we saw previously. As COINTELEGRAPH points out, such extreme parabolic rallies tend to end off with a "blow-off top / steep correction. Since we are so close to a key resistance and phycological level, $20k is imminent. I and many other analysts don't foresee a drawback when we are so close AND with a Biden win declared. (Currently we are experiencing a healthy drawback/consolidation to $15200, which is normal and good for the continuation of an "organic rally".) Let's take a closer look at what a Biden win might mean for BTC: The good (PURELY FOR BITCOIN, NOT POLITICAL TALK ETC.) - A Stimulus package is imminent, - and probably another lockdown - talks of tax increases - USDOLLAR index will fall further The bad - potential stricter crypto regulation in the future (Biden passed laws as VP that restricted encryption, we will have to see if this links up in future) Conclusion It is common consensus under analysts that a Biden win would be a boost for BTC. As we are already in the middle of a healthy bullrun, $20k is the next stop with minor pullbacks on the way. Please share support by hitting like, many thanks!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BlockTechEv
11
The Most Important Levels for BTC/USD After The ElectionsThe elections in the USA have a strong effect on the price. After seeing the huge surge in the price of gold we also see the major increase in price of BTC. In just three days, the price has increased by 20%. The dominance of BTC is increasing as well, and alts are bleeding. This behavior is common when BTC is growing a lot in a short period of time. But there is hope, on several earlier occasions such a surge in BTC and BTC Dominance has led to a temporary alt season. When BTC consolidates and the market cap flows back into alts we will see many interesting trading opportunities arise. I will make sure to report on them whenever I see such opportunities on this account. For BTC itself however, we will struggle to do any technical analysis on shorter timeframes as the price is moving into new territories. In the chart above I show how to look at horizontal zones in order to find help in charting the current price. Other alternatives for charting such large moves is by using Fibonacci retracements. In today's analysis however I will focus only on horizontal levels. It's interesting to see that we see the most important levels around the $13,000 mark, the $14,000 mark, the $15,000 mark and the $16,000 mark. I highlighted two zones explicitly in red, because they are EXACTLY at the psychological levels of $16,000 and $14,000. I consider those extra powerful. The other levels have been created using the S/R flip principle. The key idea being that horizontal levels can stay important even after they have been broken. All further info about these levels can be found on the chart. For trades I suggest to keep an eye on the $16,000 and the $15,000 levels. More specifically I suggest to get a short trade in as the price has been ridiculously high recently. A short from the ~16,000 to the ~15,000 would be my first recommendation. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
12
Weekly Recap; Nothing has changedDoing this little recap because I've already seen plenty of outlandish remarks on Twitter about the election and how the markets are overvalued and what not So, as we all know the election results are being prolonged, Trump is whining, and the markets are up 9% over 5 days. Many believe this is overextended and that the markets will eventually simmer down once Biden actually does take office (lets be honest, he probably will). Let's analyze this week and market sentiment. Why have the markets rallied 9% and is this overextended? In short, this is not overextended and the markets will probably continue to climb. Behavioural finance will help explain this. The markets have not actually rallied or overextended on a technical basis, they have instead reconnected to primary/secondary trends after a major sell off. Smart money can help explain the sell off, that is, they knew prices would go down so they sold and jumped back in once the markets bottomed on Friday/Monday (I did too). Seen on the graph we have this trading range between the 2 orange lines, considering there hasn't been a breakout I'd say what happened in the markets this week is perfectly normal. Let's not forget all that cheap money too... Next, lets look at the rationale and what "Wall Street" was actually focusing on: Over the month nothing has changed, and I mean this is the most literal sense, nothing. Fundamentally some stocks surprised on earnings and jumped, and other not so well and fell; this is perfectly normal. Putting these exceptions aside why did the market jump 9% then? Why was the uncertain election perceived so well? An election went by, and yes, we will have a winner. However, the most important take aways are as follows: - Republican senate (say bye bye to Bidens tax hikes and other left-leaning policies) - Trump and Biden economic policies don't defer (there isn't any notable differences) - Economic data is pointing towards recovery Apart from the first 2 points (and maybe the 3rd as icing on the cake) everything else is noise. Covid will be cured, a president will be elected, taxes wont increase...etc. As you can see the clear pattern here: NOTHING HAS OR WILL CHANGE That's pretty much it, we saw a pre-election sell off, then a rally. What's clear here is that Biden won't be as bad on the economy and market as people actually think, in my opinion I think Biden will actually do more good than bad for the economy. With Trump out of office I'm expecting an increase in foreign investment, influx of foreign cash, and *maybe* a first mover advantage in the renewable energy and marijuana industries. Remember: What distinguishes a beginner from an expert is that an expert knows what to ignore. For those who care, i'm up 33% since Monday because I stuck to my guns
TVC:SPX
by RaftoO
Election Results and the Future of the Stock MarketDisclaimer: this is a completely APOLITICAL analysis based solely on facts and my personal insight. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. In this post, I'll be discussing the current situation of the US presidential elections, and the market outlook depending on some of the probable cases. Election Results - To begin with, the election got complicated as Trump suggested the possibility of it being rigged. - He is asking for transparency of mail votes, and wants to settle the result in the supreme court. - Probable cases can be classified into three big categories: 1) Biden Wins - Based on the current result, and the poll results of the past, Biden ultimately winning the election wouldn't be a surprise - If matters are not taken to the supreme court, everything should go as initially planned 2) Trump Wins - The same story applies to Trump; - Had he not attempted to settle matters through the supreme court, what we could expect for Trump's winning situation is the following: - All votes are counted, and trump eventually wins over 270 votes. - While this is very improbable, it's not impossible. 3) Results Delayed - This is the situation we are faced with today - Trump wants the supreme court to settle the election, and to do so, the election results need to be delayed to his favor - Trump may have a strategic advantage over Biden, should his Plan B work out. - However, whether matters will be taken to the supreme court is unclear yet, as Trump's claims have very little to no base. So What About the Market? I'm sure the big question you might have in mind is: So what's going to happen to the market? What would be best for the market to remain bullish as it is? Based on the information available so far, it seems that Biden as president, and a republican dominant senate would be the most probable scenario. As people get a better grasp of what the potential outcome of this event, uncertainty, doubt, and fear induced through market psychology has diminished significantly. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has risen, while the Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the fear index, has decreased significantly. This demonstrates that people weren't necessarily afraid of Biden becoming president. They were worried about the uncertainty of such event having an impact on the market. In regards to the most probable outcome at the moment, where we have Biden as president, and a republican dominant senate, this might be the best case for the market over the long run. The republican senate will be able to keep in check with , and neutralize Biden's rather radical stimulus packages and fiscal policies. The infrastructure package will also be implemented as planned, but possibly in a reduced manner. Overall, some of the policies we see will be democratic, and others will be republican. This gridlock that we might face, where both parties have each other in check at an equilibrium, might be the best case for the economy, and the stock market. Statistical Evidence - To begin with, we can see that the red graph demonstrates how the market return increases over time, during a presidential term. - Taking this into account, we can look at the Average Growth of Composite Index, which organizes the market returns depending on the political situation - It calculates the average return over 4 years - Statistics demonstrates cases of: a republican president, a democratic president, a republican sweep (red wave), a democratic sweep (blue wave), a republican and democratic divided congress. - We can see that the case for the democratic divided congress, which is the current scenario with the highest probability, demonstrates the highest market returns - There were 6 cases in which this political setting took place: - In recent cases, it was the example of the Obama administration in 2012, and the Clinton administration in 1996 - Both cases reported extremely high returns in the stock market. - However, at the same time, it's important to remember that there have only been 6 historic cases, and anomalies can always take place Conclusion There are a few things to take away from the statistical data, and probable scenarios regarding America's political setting. 1. The market doesn't dislike democrats. They dislike uncertainty and fear. 2. The gridlock created by a democrat president and a republican senate is a bullish sign for the economy. Combining all the information above, we can expect this current bullish rally to continue further, as the dust settles. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
TVC:SPXLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
The Most Important Levels for GOLD After The ElectionIn this technical analysis I will describe the most important levels for Gold at the moment. I will walk you through each of the levels on the chart and explain how you can use them. Based on empirical evidence, we can observe that the election moving in favor of Biden is good for the price of gold. We have seen that as Biden moves closer to a victory, the price of gold has moved linearly up as well. The future value of conclusions often get included straight away into the price, so don't expect a huge volatility spike after the final results are live. Instead, the real volatility is happening at this moment. This also leads to common mistakes by traders. For example, if a future decision would be expected to lead to an increase in price, people start already buying the asset when the probability of that decision happening gets higher. Now, when the actual decision makes the price can even decrease as the only thing that truly happens is calibrating the height of the earlier expectations with the actual moment of the decision. The price only moves based on the difference between the recalculated probabilities and the actual price, and not based on the final decision itself. Let's now look at the most important horizontal zones for Gold and why I added them to the chart. Horizontal Support Level II This is a place where we can find really solid support. The level around 1850 is a relatively low price area where the price movements have bottomed earlier on. It is not likely that the price will move anywhere below it soon, and as such this horizontal level can be used for a stop loss on any long trade. Horizontal Support Level I This zone is important mostly for determining if the price trend continues. The price is very bullish, but after a sudden spike up there is often a retracement. This horizontal zone can be used to see whether there is some support to continue a second bull trend. Horizontal Resistance Level I + II The first and second horizontal resistance levels could be a great level to be used for placing a take profit. Both of these have proven to show resistance earlier on and the price might face resistance here again. Especially zone II is very interesting here as it is near the psychological level of the $2,000 mark for gold. I suggest placing any take profit for a long position at least slightly under $2,000 to maximize your chances on taking profit. Horizontal Resistance Level III Level three can also be used for a bullish target setting. I expect that after breaking through each of the subsequent horizontal levels, the price will consolidate for a while between the levels. Especially for scalp traders, the moves between zones I, II and III can be great to get a few trades in on smaller time frames such as the 5m, 15m and the 1h. Horizontal Resistance Level IV All-time highs are a massive area of resistance. It is often very difficult for prices to break through areas like that. I would suggest exiting any long positions at this point as it is very difficult to estimate sane levels of take profit and stop loss above areas where the price has ever been before. If you decide to hold above it, think of using a strategy such as trailing stop loss to give some help of leaving the trade. Follow me for consistent high-quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trading-Guru
32
Long SPX (S&P500)Interesting times - SPX has all the price points baked in. Forget the Elections, the Richest CEO's and companies added $1 Trillion to their net-worth during the first round of Covid. Whilst retail traders are stressing over Biden or Trump. There are some bigger factors at play. We could see the price fall to around 3096 before a half-decent rise. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by Mayfair_Ventures