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Bear Market is Far from OverCME_MINI:ES1! In the past six months, the S&P 500 has fallen from an all-time high of 4,818.62 to a fresh 52-week low of 3,636.82, down 1,181.8 points, or -24.5%. Following a brutal week, the U.S. stock market rose on Tuesday, as investors weighed the Fed rate hikes amid rising fears of a recession. The Dow rose 2.15%. The S&P popped 2.45%, and the Nasdaq climbed 2.51% at market close. Has the stock market correction ended? Let’s look at a 5-year chart. The previous peak of S&P 500 was 3,383 on February 10, 2020. It hit bottom on March 23 at 2,177, down 35.6%. Since then, the S&P has a great run for nearly two years, up 121%, with very little hiccup along the way. The new high was 40% above the pre-pandemic high. After recent steep fall, the S&P is still 400 points above the pre-COVID peak, which, in my view, is our first support line. If recession fear materializes into a real one, the post-COVID dip will become the second support. I believe that the bear market is far from over. My reasoning bogs down into two essential questions: 1. Will Government policies be effective in controlling the runaway inflation? 2. Will U.S. economic growth be sustainable at current high price level? On March 16, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). A second hike followed on May 4, for 50 bps. On June 15, a big 75-bps move upped the Fed Fund Rate to 1.50%-1.75%. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation continues to rise. In May, the official Consumer Price Index rose 8.6% year-over-year. The core CPI (all items less food and energy) was also at a record high of 6.0%. While aggressive Fed tightening could reduce the excess money supply, it could not affect the record gas price, nor the supply chain bottleneck from China. President Biden will try to convince the Saudis to increase oil production during his visit. However, we need to understand it is the best interest of OPEC to maximize oil revenue. High oil price is good for them as long as it does not cause demand to decline. Besides, if Biden can’t control his own bike, do you really expect him to get OPEC to fall in line behind us? Removing the Trump era tariff could bring some relief to U.S. consumers. However, the extent of imported goods covered by tariff reductions remains unclear. From policy discussion to actual implementation, it would take months before we see price drops on store shelves. In a nutshell, my answer is NO for the first question. As to the second question, even if the Fed succeeds in bringing down the inflation, will the U.S economy sustain its growth momentum? Take the $5 gas price for instance. For an average family with two cars, the consumption of 100 gallons a month is budgeted at $500, and it is $200 more than when gas was $3/gallon. Record gas price has already resulted in less driving and reduced trips to grocery stores and supermarkets. A major impact of Fed rate hikes is higher mortgage payments for millions of homeowners. For a family with a $400,000 house and $300,000 mortgage, a 6.5%, 30-year-fixed loan will require $1,900 interest payment per month. This is $380 more than when the mortgage rate was 4.5%. High energy and mortgage costs trickle down to every corner of American life. Even if inflation is tamed, at current price level, everything is too costly for the economy to function properly. We need to have deflation, starting with energy and housing, to avoid a recession. With headwinds to the economy and massive overhang over the stock market, I’m not optimistic for the near-term U.S. economic outlook. A short position in CME E-Mini S&P 500 futures is a way to express this bearish view. The December (ESZ2) contract may be a good one, considering both liquidity factor and time to allow major market-moving events to play out. At 3,788.00, each contract has a notional value of $189,400 ($50 times index value). CME requires an initial margin of $10,500. Futures contract is marked to market daily. For a short position, a decline of 1 index point will result in $50 gain in your account balance because of the $50 multiplier. Likewise, an increase of 1 index point means a $50 reduction in your account. If you don’t want to deal with the daily profit and loss accounting, consider a Long Put Option on the same E-Mini S&P futures contract. For example, the out-of-the-money 3685-strike (100 points below market) is currently quoted at $9.00. To buy an option requires $450, again because of the contract multiplier of 50. When is the good time to place the order? The next market rebound. Put premium generally gets cheaper following a price rise in the underlying futures. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
7
$EQX gold setup 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management My team entered gold mining company Equinox Gold Corp $EQX today at $5.75 per share. Our take profit is $9.50. We also have a stop less set at $5.15 OUR ENTRY: $5.75 FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $9.50 STOP LOSS: $5.15 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
AMEX:EQXLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
7
Jamie Dimon’s Hurricane and the Bond Market in Early JuneIn 2021, as the US central bank and the Secretary of the Treasury continued to call rising inflation a “transitory” and pandemic-inspired event, the bond market declined. Bonds watched prices rise while the economists were pouring over stale data. Meanwhile, the Fed and government planted inflationary seeds that sprouted during the second half of 2020, bloomed in 2021, and grew into wild weeds in 2022. The consumer and producer price data began to flash a warning sign in 2021, with the economic condition rising to the highest level in over four decades. The Fed and the Treasury finally woke up. While the Biden administration was already “woke,” the data awakened them to a point where late last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen admitted “transitory” was a mistake. However, there was no admission and self-realization that monetary and fiscal policies created the inflation, and ignoring the warning signs only made it worse. A storm forecast from JP Morgan Chase’s leader Bonds are sitting near the lows The Fed’s FOMC meets on June 14 and 15 Higher rates are on the horizon Expect lots of volatility in markets The bond market was far ahead of the Fed and the Treasury, which should have been another warning sign. Consumer and producer prices have skyrocketed, and the central bank is using demand-side tools to address the economic fallout. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation have only exacerbated the inflationary pressures, as they create supply-side issues making demand-side solutions impotent. The Biden administration blames the rise in energy prices on Russia, but they were already rising before the invasion and sanctions. The shift in US energy policy to a greener path is equally responsible for record-high gasoline and other fuel prices. At the end of 2021, a conventional 30-Year fixed-rate mortgage was just below the 3% level, and in less than six months, it rose to 5.5%. On a $300,000 loan, the move increases the monthly payment by $625, a significant rise. We are in the early days of an economic storm that began with the pandemic, continued with a lethargic Fed and government officials, and was exacerbated by the first major war in Europe since WW II. We have not seen the peak of the storm clouds gathering for more than two years. A storm forecast from JP Morgan Chase’s leader Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JP Morgan Chase, called Bitcoin a “fraud.” A few short years ago, he said he would fire any trader “stupid” enough to trade cryptocurrencies on the bank’s behalf. As recently as late 2021, he said he believes Bitcoin is “worthless.” So far, he has been dead wrong on the asset class. The financial institution he heads replaced real estate with cryptocurrencies in late May, calling them a “preferred alternative asset.” In his latest comments on markets across all asset classes, Mr. Dimon issued a warning. Quantitative tightening that will ramp up to $95 billion in reduced Fed bond holdings and the Ukraine war led him to tell market participants, “You’d better brace yourself. JP Morgan is bracing ourselves, and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.” He began by saying, “You know, I said there’s storm clouds, but I’m going to change it…it’s a hurricane.” Mr. Dimon believes QT and the war create substantial changes in the global flow of funds, with an uncertain impact. The leading US bank’s CEO is prepared for “at a minimum, huge volatility.” His forecast on cryptos aside, the warning is a call to action. There is still time to hedge portfolios and establish a plan for the coming storm. Volatility is a nightmare for passive inventors, but it creates a paradise of opportunities for nimble disciplined traders with their fingers on the pulse of markets. Bonds are sitting near the lows Quantitative tightening not only removes the put under the bond market that had supported government-issued fixed income instruments since early 2020, but it also puts downward pressure on bonds and upward pressure on interest rates further out along the yield curve. The long-term chart of the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures highlights the decline to the most recent low of 134-30, declining below the October 2018 136-16 low, and falling to the lowest level since July 2014. At the 135-20 level on June 10, the bonds are sitting close to an eight-year low, with the next technical support level at the December 2013 127-23 low. The Fed’s FOMC meets on June 14 and 15 The market expects the US Federal Reserve to increase the Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points this week at the June meeting. The move will put the short-term rate at the 1.25% to 1.50% level. The Fed remains far behind the inflationary curve, with CPI and PPI data at an over four-decade high and coming in hotter each past month. While the central bank determines the short-term rate, the bond market has been screaming for the Fed to catch up, warning that inflationary pressures were mounting. The bottom fell out of the long bond futures in 2022 as the Fed began to tighten credit. However, the Fed’s economists will only put the short-term rate at 1.50%, with inflation running at many times that level. A 75 basis move to 1.75% would shock the market, which is not a path the Central Bank wants to follow. Higher rates are on the horizon The Fed may have awakened, realizing it must use monetary policy tools to address inflation, but the central bank remains groggy and slow to adjust rates to levels that would choke off rising prices. The economists do not have an easy job as they face supply-side economic problems created by the war in Ukraine. Had they been more agile in 2021 and nipped the rising inflation in the bud with a series of rate hikes, the US Fed would be better positioned to address what has become a no-win situation. The war has caused energy and food prices to soar with no central bank tools to manage the situation. Last week, gasoline rose to a new high, crude oil was over $120 per barrel, natural gas was over $9.65 per MMBtu, and grain prices remained at elevated levels. Rate hikes and lower bond prices are not likely to cause prices to fall as US energy policy, sanctions on Russia, and Russian retaliation are supply-side issues that leave the central bank with few answers. Higher food and energy prices will keep the inflationary spiral going and will continue to push bond prices lower. Expect lots of volatility in markets The US and the world face an unprecedented period that began with the 2020 global pandemic. Artificially low interest rates and the government stimulus that addressed the pandemic were inflationary seeds. The pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks exacerbated the inflationary pressures. A shift in US energy policy increased OPEC and Russia’s pricing power in traditional energy markets. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has turbocharged the economic condition, making a solution challenging for the central bank. The current US Treasury Secretary, and former Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, once said that monetary policy works together with the government’s fiscal policies. In the current environment, fiscal policy and the geopolitical landscape have become the most significant factors for rising inflation. Jamie Dimon is worried, and the head of the leading US financial institution is battening down the hatches on his balance sheet for a storm. Even though he was mistaken about cryptos, we should heed his warning and hope he is wrong. Markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscapes, which are highly uncertain in June 2022. Hedge those portfolios, and make sure you develop a plan for any risk positions. Expect the unexpected because 2022 is anything but a typical year in markets across all asset classes. Fasten your seatbelts for what could be a wild and turbulent ride over the coming months. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility , inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!Education
by Andy_Hecht
12
$BABA my team is underrated 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* We've been here before. My team isn't expecting to lose this trade, but if we do it would only put a small dent into the 35% gain that we've already acquired. Our Entry: $111 Take Profit: $128 Stop Loss: $102 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
NYSE:BABALong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
6
$DXY chart analysis 6/1 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! Green trendline has the potential to become a new resistance that could lead $DXY to retest the support depicted in red. Support has been holding up for the past six months...but will June be the month that breaks the camels back? If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXY
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
The Market Is Crashing and We Are All Doomed - Or Are We? TLDR: A market crash of 50% is not as unlikely as you may think, probably probable actually. Buy gold, buy land, buy commodities. Gather your cash, so you can deploy it on cheap stonks after and become a gazillionaire. I'm about to break down why the largest crash in history may happen very soon. A lot of very interesting events culminating right now, and if you plan on investing throughout your life, moments and times like this are important for your future self, as it wont be the last time a correction or crash happens. Paying attention now means more mula later. First and foremost, its clear there's a correction happening. There's no argument there. I'm not typically a bear, nor am I typically a bull. I try my best to stay neutral and go with whatever flow the market takes me. BUT... Many of the same aspects from previous crashes are showing here such as: Frenzied investor spending - Multi Million Dollar NFTs, Exploding New "wacky" Cryptos (Doge, Shib etc), The takeoff of "meme" stocks Extremely high growth in emerging markets - (SPY grows 90% in 3 years, has one of its best performance years ever (2021), (look at AAPL, MSFT, FB charts) The same happened in the previous three crashes of the last century (1929 crash, previous year saw 80%+ in growth) High deviation from the mean (price always reverts back to mean!!) Looking at the S&P, the past 3-4 years has seen quite the deviation compared to price average in the past 100 years. Why might this one be the worst so far in history? Just as price goes exponentially higher as time goes on, so do the price dumps. Also, the FED has always been there in the past to buy assets and keep companies afloat. However, this time, inflation may keep that dragged down, limiting the FEDs buying power. Not to mention the economy is currently "fake" in a way, as the FED for the past 20 years has been bailing and supporting the economy after every (even small) correction. (edited) Also, the ongoing supply problem China is about to bring, with it shutting down factories and continuing lockdowns. The Ukraine debacle, Russia being one of the largest exporters of Oil, this could put a huge damper on the U.S (that doesn't even include Russia being mean to the U.S because of the U.S sanctions to be placed by these actions.) In super high speculation, if this begins to escalate, China would take the side of the Russia, and China is the largest exporter for U.S goods - period. This would not be like WW2. ( I don't just mean fighting, I also mean sanction wars - taxing etc) We also have a super old president. This isn't a jab at Biden. He's the oldest in history, and assuming he has no health scares from now till election, I doubt he will run again. If he does, we have even more reason to be concerned about his health. God only knows what would happen if something happened to a U.S president in this hyper-informational world, and with events like this going on. If Biden doesn't re-run, we will be dealing with another election in the U.S. High disinformation and political polarization, all while this is going on and our historic enemies are doing no no's that NATO does not like. Now, with all of this being said. I, am, not, a, bear. I love things going up. Just seeing things for what they are right now. Take the information above as you will, and form your own hypotheses. Hopefully all will be well in the short and long run, and we can all make some money from this - lets not forget history's richest men appeared in the most turbulent times.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SJ_CAP
249
$DXY triple top dollar crash? 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! Looks like we will get a triple top on the dollar $DXY. This would signal a large melt-up rally for the markets if this scenario occurs. If $DXY miraculously manages to push itself through this resistance we will see a SUBSTANTIAL market correction. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$UVXY buying the dip 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: Bitcoin and the US markets are losing steam after rallying for the majority of the month of March. We entered $UVXY on 3/25/22 at $14.25 per share. Our take profit was set at $18. My team has decided to average down on $UVXY at $11.75 per share which now brings our share average to $13. We have also added a 2nd take profit at $21. SHARE AVERAGE: $13 TAKE PROFIT 1: $18 TAKE PROFIT 2: $21 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
10
$BTC chart update 5/1 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management Recap: My team entered a Bitcoin $BTC sell on 4/18/22 at $41000. Our take profit is set at $30000. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$USOIL purely technical 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! $USOIL appears to be on a pathway to retest its support zone for the third time. If this zone is breached, we expect $USOIL to head into the $80-$90 range. This scenario is purely technical. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:USOILShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$BTC the royal flush 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! PSA: Get one thing straight with us, we are not rookies. Lately we have been on the receiving end of some haters who do not agree with our chart ideas and trades. We are here today to say, "keep the hate coming." Every single one of these guys so far have been proven wrong so it's pretty amusing. Anyways, our thoughts on Bitcoin $BTC have not changed since our last Bitcoin post. It is still in a bearish trend, and things could get much uglier if earnings this week are a bust. Tesla $TSLA and Netflix $NFLX are to report earnings this week which could impact the price of $BTC drastically. $TSLA, Apple $AAPL, and the S&P500 $SPY are mirror images of each other right now. None of them look bullish. Global economic shifts due to the Russian x Ukraine war are likely to dent the share prices of the companies that make up the majority of $SPY this season. Must we also mention that there is supposedly a high-rate hike coming in May? Or that Russia will likely use tactical nukes in Ukraine soon? If Russia does use tactical nukes, we expect markets to fall-out temporarily. World War III talks will be the buzz that drives the markets down for the proceeding days or weeks until a resolution is found. Afterwards, the market will be on the receiving end of a relief rally. These are simply our current thoughts and opinions, and they are subject to change... Happy investing! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
$US30 the glass house 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! $US30 has been consolidating outside of our bearish channel for the past 2 weeks. Many traders automatically assume that this is bullish, but appearances can sometimes be deceiving. My team still expects a strong bearish move to take place within the next couple of weeks, but it may retest 35350-35850 before that happens. Overall, the market appears to be waiting for a catalyst to justify an impulsive move down. Our guess is that repercussions/escalations from the Russian-Ukraine crisis will kick this move into motion before May arrives. If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
U
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Are Bears Playing With The Bulls Balls ??Weekly Time-frame Seems like we are respecting the Breakout Area or the demand zone we will see if we are able to hold this position we can expect more to the upside if this holds. We are currently in the High Volume Node in the VPVR which is a good Support. 1D Time-frame We are currently in the demand zone. which most probably will hold We are creating a Bullish Harami. Expect more to the upside for the day. 4H Time-frame Resistance is waiting at $42,911, $43,287, $43,926. We are making a double bottom and also the awesome oscillator is twin peaks bullish. RSI is also bullish, VPVR is Low Volume Node, Higher Volume Node in VPVR is waiting at $43,287. We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Short
by Trade_Scholar
2
XRP Is Not A Speculative Investment, 5$ !!XRPUSDT formed support at $0.81 with the channel broken @ FIB 61.8% ($0.86). Price is getting back to the resistance, a pull back happened to create momentum which will break it. With the impacts of the current suit case, XRP has been bullish fatigue; however, a positive rumour drove the price to a high of $0.9 back on March 27-28, and if XRP is really winning, in long term it will cause a major market shake and taking the prices to $5 or above. In general XRP is bullish, but fundamentally speaking, the news is causing investors to hold, leads to lower market volume, we see that in the formation of 4H candlesticks We will discuss more on the possibility on our Live. Stay tune and check with us! Want more insights before US market open? Hit Like, Share, and Subscribe for more daily trading tutorial & cryptocurrency news Trade Scholar, the best cryptocurrency educational community online! Find the content above difficult to understand? Feeling lost about how to trade? Want to learn how to do your Own Price Prediction? We endeavour to share you our investment knowledge & experience in order to help you starting your path to financial freedom. Follow, Subscribe & Join our Community to trade together! Disclaimer: Above Technical Analysis is pure educational information, not Investment Advice. The information provided on this post does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice and you should not treat any of the website's content as such. Do conduct your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Long
by Trade_Scholar