$BIDU ShortBIDU pulled back from channel upper resistance at $193. Looking for a move back sub-$190 in short term.
BIDU
Long BIDU by selling Put Spread 170/165BIDU has been pulled back from 188$. I expect it would start to bounce back from the trend line. Setup the position by selling a put spread.
Position:
Short June 170
Buy June 165
Premium: 1.05$
Target: 50% of the premium.
Breakeven, 168.95$
PoP: 71.35%
Earnings trade on BIDUSold the 195/175 Strangle for $3.08. We are betting it won't move more than the $9.50 expected move.
Wedge Pattern Forming in BIDUBaidu is forming a wedge pattern on its weekly chart, and with earnings coming out on April 27th, right now seems to be an inflection point in the change of the price of BIDU. If earnings come out great, beating expectations, one may see BIDU's stock surge out of its wedge resistance price of $187, during that point, I would put in a long position with a stop right below the new support line which was the previous wedge resistance.
However, if BIDU disappoints in earnings, BIDU might just as easily drop below it's wedge support level of $165. If that is the case, I would probably look to take a short position, with the stop loss being right above the 200 MA price of $175.
Whichever way it moves, I want to be on the right side of the trend. If I had to wager on which side it would be, I would choose the long side. BIDU is a tremendous company with an extremely wide moat. Considered by many to be the Google of China, BIDU has little if any competition with it. The financials look solid and the returns on assets, equity, and capital remain above 10%.
All the best,
RC
Baidu Bears And Bulls Set To CollideOn April 7, 2017, Baidu ( BIDU ) had four daily moving average cross events occur. The stock crossed below the 100, 200, and 250 daily moving averages (DMA) while the 20 DMA crossed below the 100 DMA. All four events have never occurred on the same day before. Also, when all four events occur individually, they do not always result in a loss.
Historically the stock has crossed below the 100 DMA 57 times with a median loss of 6.122% and maximum loss of 25.704%. The stock has crossed below the 200 DMA 46 times with a median loss of 4.269% and maximum loss of 21.444%. The stock has crossed below the 250 DMA 42 times with a median loss of 3.529% and maximum loss of 26.166%. The 20 DMA has crossed below the 100 DMA 16 times with a median loss of 6.459% with a maximum loss of 24.301%. All of this information is based over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.0218. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -11.6928. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is down, but slightly trending up.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0275. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 70.2026 and D value is 70.5545. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock just began a reversal.
The 100, 200, and 250 DMA downward crosses have occurred on the same day or within one day of each other seven times. The minimum loss of these occasions has been 1.230%. The stock has also been in a technical flag pattern since August of 2015 and is nearing its apex. The stock will break out of this pattern to the downside on this trip or could possibly break above it within the next three months. If the breakout occurs to the downside, it would most likely occur this time. If the downward break has significant volume behind it, the stock could fall well beyond 3%.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be neutral and probably heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 2.84% over the next 15 trading days.
Follow up #BIDU earningsThe Q4 earnings is not pleasant and causes the #BIDU price down.
Cut loss for daily chart: $171.72
Cut loss for weekly chart: $159.54
If you still long #BIDU, it is an opportunity to buy the dip.
Watch BABA Closely In This RangeTraders are undecided on Alibaba in a post-Trump world, demonstrated by the relatively horizontal movement over the past couple of weeks. The slightly tighter range indicates people may be ready to make a decision, so I'm watching two pricing levels.
$91.26 - Long
This resistance level is just above the 18 day moving average as of right now, if the stock breaks above this level, my guess is it'll at least go to today's 40 day moving average of $95.36 – over a 4% gain. If it breaks above the $96.06 one month high, I'd feel fairly bullish.
$87.54 - Short
This support level is just below the 13 week low. If it breaks below this, the $84.56 is where I'd look for support – a 50% retrace from the 52 week high.
BIDU - BAIDU "BINGO"- Trade...From what I have observed, I can see the same happen again.
...but - I'm also aware the the exact opposite could De- Bingo it.
As for now, I wait for a close above the dashed blue A/R line.
But yes, I am very bullish on BIDU.
P!
Contrast Weekly vs Daily Timeframe OBV and RSI indicate a possible bounce to the upside. Keep eye on intraday for continuation downward or break to the upside. If you wanna play both sides a straddle or strangle option strategy two or three months out might be ideal. For a one sided trade check OTM (out-the-money) contracts and the Vol in the options contracts relative to the strike price before purchase - 220 and 125 or 200 and 140 strike price might be ideal. Also don't wait to long to purchases options contract, because as directional price movement becomes more apparent and as Implied Volatility creeps up the more expensive the options become.
Descending DragonHVF pattern seems to be developing. Consolidation has developed in the neck of the funnel (aka Channel). Thus far the Smart money seem to have pulled out already indicated by the OBV, and RSI hit overbought levels. Entry @167 for the short, or you could wait at the breakout of the orange funnel. Intraday BIDU as shown impulsive up spike but still has not broken channel resistances or support. OBV also appears to have bottom out so this could be a good setup for a Long position if price action breaks the channel to the upside and OBV begins to reach upward.
BIDU Short the flavor of 2016Just me idea of course
Please confirm the trend prior to trading, Using higher time frames is best for proper analysis.
BIDU short todayVolatility stop change
ADX signal
MACD confirmed
RMO confirmed
Bkai Koncorde confirmed
Atlas Mini indicate Bollinger Bands strong congestion
BIDU - strong, but struggling with 201.00 USD area...Wait until this area beneath 201.00 USD is cleared. We will either see a decisive push above this level, or - if the general market is in " sell-in-May-go-away " mode - a break lower ( watch 180.00 USD ).
Bidu in a critical area hereBidu really needs to have good earnings tomorrow or we see a test of that 200ma. Watching closely.
BOUGHT TO CLOSE BIDU MAR 18TH 152.5/157.5/180/185 IRON CONDORClosed this setup at 50% max profit (for the rolled setup) ($62.58/contract).
It doesn't entirely make up for my early bobble of BIDU's earnings announcement date (first they said it was 2/10; then it was 2/25), but I'll take it here going into Draghi/FOMC.
Here's the entire chain:
2/25 Sold March 8th 132/137/177.5/182.5 iron condor for a $131 credit
2/26 Bought the 132/137 short put vert back for a $9 debit (post earnings announcement; near worthless)
2/29 Rolled the 177.5/182.5 short call vert to the March 18th 180/185 short call vertical for a $17 credit (price too close to short call strike with limited DTE)
2/29 Sold the March 18th 152.5/157.5 short put vertical for a $48 credit (this wasn't strictly necessary, since I received a credit for the roll of the short call side; I just wanted some protection there if price continued to shoot off into the ether).
3/9 Bought to close the March 18th 152.5/157.5/180/185 Iron Condor for a $106 debit.
Total credits minus total debits minus fees and commissions = $62.58/contract, not quite 50% max profit of the original setup, but close enough considering that I had to roll and that it was supposed to be one of those ideal "inzee/outzee" earnings plays ... .
BIDU EARNINGS: MARCH 4TH 136/141/185/190 IRON CONDORBIDU announces earnings after tomorrow's close, so look to put a setup on in the waning hours of the NY sesh.
Now that I've got the earnings date correct (they previously "tentatively" announced a 2/10 earnings release -- sooooo annoying), here's the metrics for the setup:
BIDU Mar 4th 136/141/185/190 iron condor
Probability of Profit: 70%
Max Profit: $125/contract
Buying Power Effect: $375/contract
Notes: Naturally, you may need to tweak the setup given the underlying's price movement during the session ... .
THIS WEEK'S EARNINGS PLAYS -- HD, FSLR, CRM, LOW, TGT, BIDUHere's are next weeks earnings plays that I'm thinking of playing via options, assuming the implied volatility rank "stars" line up correctly ... :
HD: announces on Tues 2/23 before market open.The rank is 55, the implied 32, neither of which is that great. If IV doesn't pop, I'll pass.
FSLR: announces on Tues 2/23 after market close. With a rank of 72 and an implied of 69, it's good to go .
LOW: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Its rank is 65; implied, 35, so it's kind of the edge. Like HD, its volatility needs to pop a bit for me to play.
TGT: announces on Wed 2/24 before market open. Rank: 57; implied 33. Needs to pop.
CRM: announces on Wed 2/24 after market close. Also good to go with a rank of 71 and an implied of 60.
BIDU: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. It's good to go with rank at 72, implied at 60.
EOG: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Good to go, but I don't think I've played this one recently, which is surprising because it's an oil and gas play, and that sector's been hot volatility wise.
HLF: announces on Thurs 2/25 after market close. Also good to go, rank and implied volatility wise.
I'll post setups the day immediately preceding the announcement if it looks like they're still good plays.
BIDU EARNINGS PLAYSBIDU announces earnings "some time tomorrow", so it could be either before or after market; if you want to play it, look to put on a setup before today's market close. One thing I would note is that the bid/ask spreads aren't that great, implying that the options' liquidity isn't the best in the world, so I would look to put on a play at the mid price, but not to chase price ... . In any event, here are the setups:
For the folks who like to "go naked":
Feb 19th 124/157.5 short strangle
Probability of Profit %: 72%
Max Profit: $225/contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
For those who are "more shy" or of a defined risk bent (I've gone out a little farther in time because I can't get the long option strikes I want for a symmetrical setup in the Feb 19th expiry):
Feb 26th 115/120/165/170 iron condor
Probability of Profit %: 70%
Max Profit: $117/contract
Buying Power Effect: $382
Look to take off the entire setup at 50% max profit or a single side nearing worthless. In the event a side is tested, look to roll that side out to a later expiry and sell and oppositional side against the rolled out option(s) for a credit that exceeds the cost of the roll of the tested side.
