The worst is over for Chinese names BIDUIf you are a long term investor I hope you used the panic to top up your holdings. If you are a momentum trader you still have the opportunity to ride the bounce or accumulate your position a bit later. Possible scenario for BIDU but all names have something similar is as follows.
I treat that panic as an exhaustion and behavioural pattern confirms that so I consider the worst is over.
Personally, I played that dangerously catching falling knives and loosing hairs so my words bring some sort of hope, but from technical perspective the situation is as follows.
Another option is to treat the current leg up as a retest of the previous support but usually when you have seen that sort of panic and all the papers writing the same thing - it is just over.
I expect some turbulence at this resistance since bears will try to play down the move but final move is gonna be UP.
BIDU
China BigTech - KWEB ETF☝ KWEB - ETF of Chinese tech giants. It is traded on ARCA, but managed by a Chinese bank, so there is no threat of delisting.
Price is at the bottom of the channel. Most likely it will be a bottom and there will be a reversal up at least 50% towards the resistance line of $70 by February 2022. The upcoming bullish reversal is confirmed by the MACD-histogram, which is already in a bullish divergence.
However, in February 2021, there was a 19.83% move up from the channel. Such a pull-out can be repeated down to the $40 support line.
Not a financial recommendation.
GET RICH OR DIE TRYIN
A butterfly flapping its wings can cause a hurricane in China!You don't need to see an Optometrist, and you did not drink an excessive amount of alcohol, at least I did not, however, I am not sure about you..!
There is nothing wrong with you if you see BABA , PDD , JD , NASDAQ:BIDU creates the exact same pattern..!
This could be explained in mathematics!
What is Chaos Theory?
Chaos is the science of surprises, of the nonlinear and the unpredictable. It teaches us to expect the unexpected. While most traditional science deals with supposedly predictable phenomena like gravity, electricity, or chemical reactions, Chaos Theory deals with nonlinear things that are effectively impossible to predict or control, like turbulence, weather, the stock market , our brain states, and so on. These phenomena are often described by fractal mathematics, which captures the infinite complexity of nature. Many natural objects exhibit fractal properties, including landscapes, clouds, trees, organs, rivers etc, and many of the systems in which we live exhibit complex, chaotic behavior. Recognizing the chaotic, fractal nature of our world can give us new insight, power, and wisdom. For example, by understanding the complex, chaotic dynamics of the atmosphere, a balloon pilot can “steer” a balloon to a desired location. By understanding that our ecosystems, our social systems, and our economic systems are interconnected, we can hope to avoid actions which may end up being detrimental to our long-term well-being.
Chaos Theory
Chaos theory is concerned with unpredictable courses of events. The irregular and unpredictable time evolution of many nonlinear and complex linear systems has been named chaos. Chaos is best illustrated by Lorentz’s famous butterfly effect: the notion that a butterfly stirring the air in Hong Kong today can transform storm systems in New York next month. The definition of deterministic chaos implies that our prediction in the form of a model, for instance, is very sensitive to the initial conditions. The difference between predictions with slightly different initial conditions grows exponentially:
d(t)=d(0)eat*
where d(t) is the difference between the two predictions at time t and d(0) at time zero, t is the time, and a is a positive number.
*at: is the power of e, I do not know how to type power in TradingView..!
Chaos theory, more technically nonlinear dynamical systems (NLDS) theory, is an exciting, rapidly developing area of mathematics with increasing application in the physical, biological, and social sciences. Along with the great metaphorical appeal, nonlinear dynamical systems can also add rigor and realism to human sciences; they may help illuminate creativity, an elusive, sometimes near-magical phenomenon that has defied simple explanations. Chaotic or near-chaotic systems can demonstrate surprising flexibility and adaptability. Despite connotations of ‘chaos,’ they also demonstrate order, complexity, and self-organization. Some relatively simple, mechanistic, completely deterministic systems are capable of surprising, discontinuous, and seemingly unpredictable change.
Challenged by Instability and Complexity
Challenged by Instability and Complexity…
Jan C. Schmidt, in Philosophy of Complex Systems, 2011
1 Introduction: the Stability Assumption Is Unstable …
Nonlinear Dynamics — including Complex Systems Theory, Chaos Theory, Synergetics, Dissipative Structures, Fractal Geometry, and Catastrophe Theory — is a young and fascinating field of scientific inquiry that spans many established disciplines (cf. ). However, it poses challenging problems for both scientific methodology and the philosophy of science. Methodological prerequisites as well as metaphysical assumptions are questioned, e.g., predictability, reproducibility, testability, explainability as well as lawlikeness (determinism/causation). The common denominator of all of these challenges is instability — that is the main thesis of this paper.
Since the advent of Nonlinear Dynamics and its advancement in the realm of physics in the 1960s — interlaced with methodological developments in computer technology and the computer's ability to numerically handle nonlinearity — further evidence for the existence and prevalence of unstable and complex phenomena in the physical world has emerged. Nonlinear systems, even those with just a few degrees of freedom, can exhibit static, dynamical and structural instabilities. Although instabilities call implicit metaphysical-methodological convictions and well-established underlying prerequisites of mathematical science into question, today they are not viewed in just a negative way. On the contrary, instabilities are highly valued — we find a positivization of instabilities: instabilities constitute the nomological nucleus of self-organization, pattern formation, growth processes, phase transitions and, also, the arrow of time (cf. ). Without instability, there is no complexity and no change. The phenomena generated by underlying instabilities in nature, technology and society are manifest; we can observe these phenomena with our unaided senses. In fact, instability is the root of many homely phenomena in our day-to-day experience — for example, the onset of dripping from a tap or water freezing to ice in a refrigerator. Instability has to be regarded as an empirical fact of our life-world and beyond — not just as a contingent convention.
A reconsideration of the traditional methodological-metaphysical stability assumptions therefore seems to be indispensable. (a) In the past, stability was taken for granted as an implicit a priori condition to qualify a mathematical model as physically relevant or adequate. Stability seemed to be a key element underlying any kind of physical methodology: it was regarded as the sole possibility to guarantee the application of methods of approximation and, also, to deal with empirical and experimental uncertainties. (b) In addition to methodology, an underlying metaphysical conviction was pervasive throughout the history of physics, guiding the focus of interest and selecting the objects that were considered worth researching. Framing and conceptualizing nature as “nature” insofar as it is stable, time-invariant and symmetrical (metaphysics), was indeed a successful strategy to advance a specific physical knowledge (methodology). It is interesting to see that metaphysical convictions and methodological considerations are interlaced; there is no clear line between metaphysics and methodology, as will be shown in this paper.
Throughout history, stability metaphysics has always played a major role in science, beginning in ancient times with Plato's stability concept of the cosmos. In modern times, stability metaphysics can be found in the works of outstanding physicists such as Newton and Einstein. For instance, in his Opticks Newton did not trust his own nonlinear equations for three- and n-body systems which can potentially exhibit unstable solutions . He required God's frequent supernatural intervention in order to stabilize the solar system. In the same vein, Einstein introduced ad hoc — without any empirical evidence or physical justification — the cosmological constant in the framework of General Relativity in order to guarantee a static and stable cosmos, “Einstein's cosmos” . Both examples, from Newton and Einstein, illustrate that metaphysical convictions — what nature is! — can be incredibly strong, even if they are in conflict with what is known about nature at the time.
Today, however, ex post and thanks to the advancement of Nonlinear Dynamics, we can identify a “dogma of stability” that has determined the selection (or construction) of both the objects and the models/theories in physics. “We shall question the conventional wisdom that stability is an essential property for models of physical systems. The logic which supports the stability dogma is faulty.” : the stability assumption is itself unstable! Although the discovery history of instabilities traces back to physicists such as Newton, Laplace, Stokes, Maxwell, Poincaré and Duhem, physical objects were (and often still are) perceived and framed from the perspective of stability — even by the pioneers of instabilities. Throughout the history of exact sciences, instabilities were not acknowledged by the scientific community. This has been changing since the 1960s when physics began widening its methodological horizon — including getting rid of the restriction of methodology to stability requirements. The need to advance physical methodology emerged because instabilities have turned out to be so very fundamental in nature, technology, and even in social processes. In order to deal with instabilities, physicists have over the last 30 years successfully replaced the traditional quantitative, metrically oriented stability dogma by weaker, more qualitative topological characteristics. Many models (theories, laws) in Nonlinear Dynamics are unstable, “and we are confident that these are realistic models of corresponding physical systems” .
Nonlinear Dynamics shows that instability is not an epiphenomenon of minor relevance: instabilities are broadly present in our entire world. Discovering and acknowledging instabilities impels both a reconsideration of the metaphysical views that undergird the stability dogma and a revision of the methodological presuppositions. The outline of this paper is as follows: In section 2, I characterize instabilities and distinguish between three kinds of instability. In section 3, I focus on methodological problems and challenges caused by instabilities; the limitations of classical-modern sciences will be discussed. In section 4, I show how present-day physics manages, at least to some degree, to cope with instabilities.
Instabilities cannot be considered as exceptions within a stable world. Rather, it is the other way around: instabilities are the source of complexity, pattern formation and self-organization. This is why instabilities do not only appear in a negative light; a positive understanding emerges and shows challenging future prospects and perspectives for the rapidly progressing field of Nonlinear Dynamics — and beyond: for all mathematical sciences.
My Soul is painted like the wings of a butterfly..!
Moshkelgosha
References :
www.sciencedirect.com
fractalfoundation.org
BIDU (daily) inverted chartI inverted the chart to make it easier to see the bearish perspective of the chart, ascending triangle are really easy to see. On the right side, we are currently in the last leg (E) of the falling triangle. A break of 170 would possibly bring us back to a previous top that could act as a support. But, is it doable ? Not so sure, it looks already cheap enough to attract buyers.
BIDU has currently a PE ratio around 8.50, yes only 8.50 in that market !!! We can see it as undervalue and a good buy. If China stocks comeback in the second half of 2021, that count would be invalidate. Next earnings will dictate the direction of BIDU. It will bring us back to a 200 retest or down to the target on the chart.
Everyone should be aware of both perspective, but longterm and fundamentals always win. BIDU is a great company, their revenue is increasing every year and has a lot of potential, it is also at a good price so scaling in could be a good strategy :)
Alibaba Breakout + SeasonalityBABA broke out two days ago, with above average intraday volume.
OBV is confirming slight positive trend.
Taking a look at seasonality:
We are entering July, which has been THE best performing month in the past 8 years.
BABA has closed higher than it opened 83% of the time in July, since 2014.
Approximate Potential Target ---> $275
$BIDU - Long Trade Opportunity Above 205BIDU has a really clean setup this week! We're sitting right at the 203/205 resistance, meaning long trades are valid at any point above it. We will likely make a quick trip up to 223, then 228 if it starts running. Above that it's clear skis up to 264, though it's unlikely we reach that far. The only reason I even included that is because ROKU blew me out to the upside last week, and I don't want to get pantsed again. I know many traders are eyeing this trade and the open interest on it is huge, so there may be some fun gamma action and MM trickery with this one. Regardless, insanely clean technical setup. I'm personally going long above 205
BIDU: ICHIMOKU LONG SWING TRADEBIDU :
Baidu is back above the long term trend line that was supporting the price for a long time.
The last candle has also reintegrated the cloud and the lagging span broke the kinjun and tenkan.
All the above indicate a potential bullish trend reversal .
I'm now switching from bearish to neutral/bullish.
Good enough for me to initiate a long swing trade .
All targets and resistances are on the chart.
Note that BABA has a very similar chart.
Trade safe.
George Soros play with Bill Hwang stocks!This post is just for people to know what is going on between big players!
No recommendation to buy or sell:
According to Bussiness standard:
Soros Fund Management bought $194 million of ViacomCBS Inc., Baidu Inc. stock valued at $77 million, as well $46 million of Vipshop Holdings Ltd. and $34 million of Tencent Music Entertainment Group during the first quarter, according to a regulatory filing released Friday. A person familiar with the fund’s trading said the company didn’t hold the shares prior to Archegos’s implosion.
reference:
www.business-standard.com
go long KWEBtrading below its VWAP from the previous high, Emerging Markets expected to outperform this year, KWEB is a good way to focus exposure in China while getting a diverse basket of high growth names that are titans over there with names like Alibaba, Tencent, Pinduoduo, Baidu, and JD.com.
Diversification is key especially as US markets top out in the near term
$BLNK $BA $GLD $BIDU I OptionsSwing WatchlistBLNK 4H I Breakout from massive downtrend, has to hold the $24 level for continuation. As the infrastructure bill is discussed, we expect to see some of those efforts to focus on electric vehicle stations.
BA 4H I We caught the whole move on BA. After breaking out from the falling wedge we have seen BA with strong momentum to the upside. Expecting to consolidate between $240-$250 before seeing a continuation to the upside.
GLD 1D I We also caught the breakout on GLD. As long as there is uncertainty and inflation fears in the market, we will see GLD continue with its upward momentum.
BIDU 1H I On the hourly we are seeing an ascending triangle on BIDU. Its getting tight, so we expect a move this upcoming week. Although this pattern tends to be bullish we remain neutral as we can play a breakout to the upside or downside.
BIDU - $140s or $270s? I re-entered with a BIDU position few days ago, but I feel there's a possibility the weakness could continue.
I believe the stock should be able to hold it's $170s low next week, but based on time cycles it's weak zone continues next week until first week June. If that $170 support zone breaks due to any China related news or general market sell off, BIDU may be a crazy price to average in at $145 range (the yellow 500 MA)
Either ways, I feel BIDU is a good buy here if you're okay to hold your swing for a few months. My price target is for BIDU to retest at least $270 before end of 2021 (I expect this to happen more likely before September)
Good luck!