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BIDU

BIDU Long - long term target 220 & short term 190Jumped up 13% from $167 to $185 share on April 9th, then dropped 9% to today April 15th. IS THIS headed upwards trajectory again towards $190? 60 billion Market Cap, PE around 14, this sure looks like a screaming buy with the population of China. Worlds one third population will be using BIDU not Google. How ingrained is this company in the modern Chinese way of life? Is it comparable, at all, to the way Amazon and Google were ingrained 20 years ago here in the U.S. and are ingrained today?
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by raja4u
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS, XOP, TSLA, FCX, X, TWTR, BIDUPictured here is the only earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play with the metrics I'm looking for: greater than 70% rank and greater than 50% 30-day (it was 68/55 as of Friday close). Setup Metrics: 3.40 credit, break evens at 20.60/27.40, -8.20 delta, 3.1 theta. Obvious alternatives would be the April 18th 21/27 short strangle paying 1.21 with break evens at 19.79/28.21, a delta of -4.5, and theta of 2.43 and -- for those with a defined risk bent -- the 19/22/26/29 iron condor in the same expiry, paying 1.23 with 20.77/27.23 break evens, a -2.64 delta, and a theta of 1.15. On the exchange-traded fund front, the highest volatility remains in petro, with OIH, XOP, and USO taking the top three spots for 30-day implied at 31, 30, and 29, respectively, followed by EWZ at 29, and GDXJ at 26. With the exception of GDXJ, however, all of these are in the lower one quarter of their 52-week range (GDXJ's in the 31st percentile). As with last week, I'll continue to sell premium in XOP, albeit smaller than usual, reserving buying power for a richer volatility environment. Single names with earnings in the rear view ranked by 30-day: TSLA (12/49), FCX (24/43), X (18/43), TWTR (8/38), and BIDU (24/35). I'm in a FCX slightly bullish short straddle at 14 as a kind of quasi-bullish copper play, and have gone with a "not a penny more" short put in X (See Posts Below). As alternative plays, the X April 18th 24 short straddle is paying 2.83 (.71 at 25% max) with the 21/27 short strangle paying .84 (.42 at 50% max) The TWTR April 18th 32 short straddle is paying 3.61 at the mid (.90 at 25% max) with the 28/35 short strangle paying 1.19 (.60 at 50% max) in the same expiry. Spreads in both TSLA and BIDU are unattractively wide.
NYSE:M
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: TEVA, BIDU, RIG, XOPBIDU (44/42), RIG (33/56), and TEVA (49/53) announce earnings this week, with TEVA looking for a March to April volatility contraction of about 15%, BIDU, approximately 7.7%, and RIG, 6.9%. Instead of looking to play these pre-announcement for a volatility contraction (the contraction percentages aren't that compelling), I'll look to potentially short put/acquire/cover instead,* particularly since all of these underlyings have been hammered of late and are at the low end of their 52-week ranges. Pictured here is a Plain Jane, TEVA 20-ish delta 16 short put in the April expiry; it's paying .51 with a break even of 15.49. The more aggressive 30 would be at the 17 strike and is currently paying .79 with a 16.21 break even. On margin, the 16 short ties up about 320 to put on, the 17, 340, with respective returns on capital of 16% and 23% at max. The break evens represent a 15% discount over current price for the 16 short put; an 11% discount for the 17. The BIDU April 18th 155 (25 delta) is paying a 4.55 credit with a break even of 150.45, a potential 14.7% return on capital at max and a 11.4% discount over current price if assigned. As with TEVA, there is little point in holding shares if you don't have to, since it does not pay a divvy. If you end up in-the-money, roll as is and proceed to sell calls against to reduce cost basis. If you're not into tying up 31.00 in buying power on Baidu, there is RIG. Unfortunately, due to its size, you're going to have to go closer to the money to make it worthwhile in dollar and cents terms: the April 15th 8 short put (40 delta) is paying .57 with a break even of 7.43 -- a 35.6% potential return on capital at max and a 10.3% discount over current price if assigned. On the exchange-traded fund front, not much is hopping from a premium selling standpoint with VIX dropping into the 15's from its 2018 year-end highs of 36+, so I'll be looking to hand sit and keep powder dry for a higher volatility environment to get into nondirectional setups in broad market instruments. That being said, I will continue to sell premium in XOP, where the 30-day implied is over twice that of the broader market (34.1% versus SPY 15%). * -- The natural alternative should you not be interested in acquiring shares would be to roll the short put out in time "as is" if it hasn't worked out and then proceed to cover with a short call. The last two dividends were a paltry .07, so I could see not wanting to tie up buying power to be in the shares unless you absolutely have to.
NYSE:TEVA
by NaughtyPines
The Bounce from Oversold Survives An Early TestAbove the 40 (November 2, 2018) – The Bounce from Oversold Survives An Early Test November 4, 2018 by Dr. Duru AT40 = 22.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ends an 11-day oversold period that followed a 4-day oversold period AT200 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.5 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary If you are a long-term passive index investor, you can return to your regularly scheduled programming. Just make sure to check back in if the S&P 500 (SPY) manages to break down below the low of this latest selling cycle (around 2600). For those interested in short-term trades, the drama continues apace. Friday was a day of spills and thrills as the headlines from another strong jobs report faded fast in the wake of the Trump administration broadcast conflicting messages about the prospects for an imminent trade deal with China. I was not aware of the headlines until after the close of trading; I am thankful I was not paying attention to that source of confusion and distraction. I was focused on executing my trading strategy for a market that I assume is moving away from oversold conditions and facing down its next challenges at 200-day moving averages (DMAs). AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, closed at 22.0%, a slight gain over the previous day. AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, closed at 31.6%, essentially flat with the previous day. The S&P 500 (SPY) gapped up but sold off all the way below the intraday lows of the previous two trading days before bouncing back. Although the index netted a 0.6% loss, I call the day overall a small victory. {The S&P 500 (SPY) almost challenged its now declining 200DMA resistance. The 0.6% loss was not enough to drop the stock market back into oversold territory.} The NASDAQ and the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) behaved like the S&P 500. Most importantly, QQQ directly challenged its 200DMA resistance and got rejected. This is the second day in a row with QQQ tussling with this critical trendline. {The NASDAQ lost 1.0% as its downtrending 20DMA held as resistance.} {The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) lost 1.6% and also lost its battle with 200DMA resistance.} The volatility index, the VIX, delivered another small victory. The VIX made a fractional gain after gapping down and then soaring past the previous day’s intraday high. It closed at 19.5 and remained below the 20 “elevated” level. As I wrote earlier, I expect volatility to implode after the election with no expectation for the outcomes. My put options on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) teased me by going into the green soon after the open only to close the day back into red territory. {The volatility index, the VIX, gained 0.9% but stayed below the 20 level which is the threshold to "elevated" levels.} The intraday volatility on the day allowed me to flip call options on SPY. My core index play remains Shares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) call options and now for a longer stretch shares of ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO). IWM out-performed the market with a 0.3% gain. Several hedges expired harmless last week. Looking back, I wish I was a little more aggressive in closing out some of them. Next week’s hedges are mainly the long side of calendar put spreads whose short sides expired harmless this week. I am not interested in adding fresh hedges and will remain aggressive on the long side (mainly for swing trades). I am particularly interested in accumulating shares and calls on companies that survived their earnings with gains with a preference for stocks trading above their 200DMAs. Swingtradebot is a great tool for scanning for such stocks. I will also do my best to post some ideas here.
SP:SPXLong
by drduru
LONG TKAT @ $.6954 for Chinese Internet (KWEB) UpsideTechnical Analysis: 1. KWEB (Chinese Internet ETF): Expect a relief bounce here for Chinese Internet stocks ( BABA BIDU JD ) with a Hong Kong ( HKDOW ) & Shanghai ( DJSH ) market rally. a. Holding 200weekSMA and 50monthSMA support here at $44 with record volume twitter.com b. Very oversold on weekly timeframe c. Strong price support at $41.00 d. 4/24/18 gap filled at $43.53 e. Possible reversion to mean: 2018 Chinese Internet % Total Returns (negative) very divergent from US Internet % Total Returns (positive) 2. TKAT (Takung Art Co) showing strong correlation with KWEB with more volatility, conveying a higher beta to Chinese markets. This will result in exceeding KWEB’s % gains on upside price movement. a. Potential price double bottom $.63-$.68 b. Extremely oversold on weekly/monthly timeframes c. Daily RSI uptrend from 29 (8/9/18) to 34 (10/11/18) d. Large accumulation volume on 10/2 and 10/12 e. Testing 10dayEMA @ $.75 Fundamental Analysis: TKAT - Takung Art Company: 1. Takung Art Company fundamentals convey undervaluation and thus provides great risk/reward for China Internet/Software market rally a. Price to Book = .49 b. Price to Sales = .61 c. Net Current Asset Value = 1.24 d. Cash to Debt = 1.43 – Strong cash position to outlast market downturn e. Poor 2018Q2 and 2018Q3 earnings coupled with an overall bearish Chinese investor sentiment already priced into stock price f. Company is expected to resume Listing Revenue (primary revenue stream) end of October – temporarily loss of revenue could be short-lived g. Company plans to reduce G&A expenses by 10% in 2018Q3
TLong
by CashFlo_Trading
1
JD.com trading at a blatant valuation discount- LONGOne of the trends taking place in my portfolio is an increased weighting in China's technology sector. Amid the trade-driven pessimism over China, clamp down on digital assets and increased control over online content China's economy is trading at a blatant valuation discount to the U.S. Within the last few months the BAT stocks Baidu BIDU, Alibaba BABA and Tencent TCEHY have been among the biggest losers. The recent arrest of JD CEO Richard Liu has caused JD stocks to tumble further relative to its e-commerce peers and is now almost 50% off its 52-week high. I view this as a risk-reward profile that is heavily tilted in favor of the bull. All indicators explained on the graph.
NASDAQ:JDLong
by warrenhochfeld